Michael Sacerdote

Prana: Expect Success In Massive Binary Event

Executive summary:

  • Prana is an Australian biotech with a potential treatment for Alzheimer's disease.
  • Potential future revenues of at least $5 billion, but market cap is only $295 million.
  • Lead compound backed by spectacularly good science.
  • Imminent catalyst: results from Phase 2b IMAGINE trial due in March.
  • Conservative pre-result risk-adjusted net present value is at least $9.60/share.


Prana Biotechnology Limited (NASDAQ:PRAN) is a tiny clinical-stage company nearing completion of a pivotal Phase 2b trial of its compound PBT2 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. The company has also completed a Phase 2 study of PBT2 for the treatment of Huntington's disease, with results due at any time. The company's price history has been volatile to say the

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