Commercial Delinquencies Rise Again, Data Goes Ignored by the Equity Markets

Commercial Delinquencies Rise Again, Data Goes Ignored: Mortgage Bankers Association

• Commercial Real Estate delinquency rates for loans held >30 days rose to 5.69% (as REITs continue to hit record highs)
• CMBS debt has continued to have the highest delinquency rate of all debt by sector
• For a reminder of the early warnings on regional bank exposure, see the Doo Doo 32
• For my 2010 commercial real estate outlook (which thus far has been right on the money) see CRE 2010 Overview 2009-12-16 07:52:36 2.85 Mb

• A look at the Morgan Stanley CRE ventures and lesson based on what happens when you buy into a bubble: Doesn't Morgan Stanley Read My Blog?”. Of course you can afford to buy into a bubble when your clients subsidize most of your CRE losses with a permanent, premium free call option: Wall Street is Back to Paying Big Bonuses. Are You Sharing in this New Found Prosperity?
  • The huge difference between the returns of GP and LPs and the factors behind this disconnect reinforces the conflict of interest between the fund managers and the investors in the fund.

    

    

• A forensic peek into two REITs who have several properties underwater, one of which has significant debt and increasing rollover issues, yet all benefiting from rocketing share prices:
  • A Granular Look Into a $6 Billion REIT: Is This the Next GGP?
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  • The Taubman Properties Research is Now Available

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    • The two deep underwater properties - The Piers Shops at Caesars and Regency Square were written down to the fair value by recording impairment charge in 3Q09. While the former is being handed over to the lenders for auction proceedings, the latter still remains with the Company and the Company continues to service its debt obligations. Additionally, there are 5 more properties with LTV of more than 80%, making them highly susceptible to reach the negative equity territory in case of further declines in rentals or increase in cap rates.

• Consulting overview: CRE Consulting Capabilities 2009-12-17 14:17:01 655.48 Kb
• Just a remider: GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house

Disclosure: short cre