Seeking Alpha

Paulo Santos'  Instablog

Paulo Santos
  • on Short Ideas
  • on Services
Send Message
I am a Portuguese independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked for both sell side (brokerage) and buy side (fund management) institutions. I've been trading professionally for about 16 years and also launched www.thinkfn.com in 2004. Thinkfn (Think Finance) carries... More
My company:
Arquiconsult
My blog:
Think Finance
  • Microsoft Might Throw Nokia Under A Bus 3 comments
    Apr 19, 2012 11:27 AM | about stocks: NOK, T, MSFT

    Well, it's a bit of an understatement. It's more like Microsoft (MSFT) might throw the Windows Phone 7 vendors under a bus. Nokia (NOK) just happens to be the largest of them, and the tightest knit with Microsoft, as well as the more needy of its success.

    Why am I saying this in the same week where AT&T (T) is saying that the Lumia 900 is exceeding expectations and some stores seem to have run out of stock? I'm saying it because, if rumors are to be believed, Microsoft might just pull another blunder that can easily freeze Windows Phone sales in the next few months.

    The blunder is simple - several sources are saying that the present generation Windows Phones will not be upgraded to Windows Phone Apollo / 8. So anyone buying a Windows Phone today, even the Lumia 900, is bound to find it obsolete and with no upgrade path before the year is out. This would certainly be a sales killer as soon as knowledge of it spreads.

    Still, this isn't entirely guaranteed. There are other sources claiming exactly the opposite, that Apollo will indeed be available to every phone currently running Windows Phone 7. Microsoft, however, is not making things clear. Microsoft is saying that all apps currently on the marketplace will run in Windows Phone Apollo, but this is not the problem that was originally rumored. The problem is that today's phones might not get the Apollo upgrade.

    Conclusion

    It would be wise for Microsoft to clear this mess up and state clearly and unambiguously that the present Windows Phones will get the Apollo upgrade. It might even be that they will really get the upgrade, but the rumor is out there that they won't and such can easily freeze sales. So, again, it would be wise for Microsoft to clear things up officially and declare that the upgrade will hit the present phones, lest it drive a nail through Nokia's coffin if it doesn't.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: short-ideas Stocks: NOK, T, MSFT
Back To Paulo Santos' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (3)
Track new comments
  • tartaglia80
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    All windows Lumias will be upgraded, so need not worry about a bus. Check this out http://bit.ly/Jj3Iyn
    20 Apr 2012, 02:08 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (19026) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The thing is, there is no direct official confirmation from Nokia or Microsoft.
    20 Apr 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Contrariety
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Known unknown.
    20 Apr 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.