Seeking Alpha

Christopher Wal...'s  Instablog

Christopher Wallace
Send Message
Former private equity fund manager, now full time private investor.
  • North American Palladium's All-In Sustaining Cash Costs 1 comment
    Jan 7, 2014 3:36 PM | about stocks: PAL

    North American Palladium (NYSEMKT:PAL) just released up-dated Operating Guidance. In that release they announced cash costs for 2014 were expected to come in at $550/oz. This is no improvement over 2013's cash cost number. What PAL's management did not provide is a calculation of their all-in sustaining cash costs. This figure includes overheads, interest and sustaining capex. I compute it as follows:

    NAP All-In Sustaining Cash Costs  
       
    Cash costs/oz as reported by PAL 550
    SG&A11,000,000 
    Interest34,500,000 
    Capex, exploration34,000,000 
    Total Other cash costs79,500,000 
    Other cash costs/oz 454.29
    All-in Sustaining Cash Costs $ 1,004.29

    Not a pretty picture.

    Disclosure: I am short PAL, .

    Stocks: PAL
Back To Christopher Wallace's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (1)
Track new comments
  • Fun Trading
    , contributor
    Comments (762) | Send Message
     
    Hello Chris,

     

    This is about what I have estimated... PAL will not give an accurate AISC unless it is forced to.
    I am guessing that you are taking 175k oz for 2014 but using 42.5Koz for Q1, AISC is now even higher with 170koz yearly pace or perhaps $1,033? and should be around $950 end of 2014? Due to a large difference between Q1 Q2 Q3 and Q4 it is perhaps better to estimate AISC per quarter now using the real production?
    Bankruptcy will be the necessary next step.
    I expect the PPS to get one last rebound (0.35?) before going under 0.10. I may trade a bit around 0.20/0.23 to 0.35? I have no short position now.

     

    Best regards,
    29 Apr, 03:44 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals: What Does The 'Animal Rule' Mean For Their Ebola Drug Development? $TKMR http://seekingalpha.com/a/1gck1
    6 days ago
  • $TKMR surprising how difficult it is for retail investors to grasp that an outbreak does nothing to change chances for drug approval.
    6 days ago
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing $TKMR http://seekingalpha.com/a/1g9cr
    7 days ago
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.