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Denis Ouellet's  Instablog

Denis Ouellet has been involved in the Financial sector since 1975. Now retired, he is a part-time blogger. From 2006 to 2008 Denis served as Equity manager for a hedge fund and from 2002 to 2006 he was a consultant and chairman of an equity investment committee, and pension and mutual fund... More
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Fidanza Publishing
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News To U(se)
  • SEPTEMBER SAME STORE SALES ONLY LESS BAD 0 comments
    Oct 8, 2009 10:52 AM | about stocks: NMG, SKS, ANF, ARO, GPS, LTD, DDS, JCP, M, TGT, BJ, COST, TJX
     Year-old trends continue:
    • SSS remain generally weak, more so at high end retailers (left end side on the chart) while discounters (right end side) outperform.
    • September SSS were less bad for all retailers with negative sales trends and better for others. Obviously, as year-ago comps began to worsen at mid-year and got increasingly bad throughout the second half, comparisons have to improve. SSS turned quite weak for most retailers in September 2008.The fact that results beat analysts estimates only prove that analysts are not great in predicting monthly sales patterns (who is?).
    • For example, GAP and JC Penney are showing much improved trends in September but their SSS were down 11.0% and 12.4% respectively in September 2008.
    • At the opposite, BJs’ 5.5% sales gain this year is excellent given that it is against a 10.4% jump in September 2008.
    • Also noteworthy: Aeropostale keeps it up! TJX maintains a strong sales momentum.

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    Disclosure: no positions

    Themes: RETAIL Stocks: NMG, SKS, ANF, ARO, GPS, LTD, DDS, JCP, M, TGT, BJ, COST, TJX
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  • Time for pause. Valuation Risk/Reward now slightly unfavorable. Green shoots not blossoming yet. Many hurdles remain.
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