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Why I'm NOT Buying This Rally

|Includes:Apple Inc. (AAPL), AMZN, NFLX

Global markets are soaring Thursday after a tentative deal in Europe has been reached to stabilize Greece and the banking sector. With about an hour to go in trading, the Dow is up over 360 points and the S&P 500 is up 45. This is the best day we've seen in quite some time.

But I'm not a buyer, and here's why: 

1. Europe is not saved, yet: While it is nice that these countries came to a tentative agreement, where is the money going to come from? They need over a TRILLION DOLLARS! Will the Chinese pay for all of this? I doubt it.

2. Ratings Cuts: Will France stay AAA after this? Probably not. There could be multiple downgrades to several countries coming.

3. Bank recaps: Banks in Europe need more capital. How much to they actually need, and how are they going to get it? Their stress tests were a joke.

4. Back to the US: GDP came in as expected at 2.5%, but previous quarters were lower. We're not seeing a great jump coming out of the recession. Food and energy prices are rising quickly and much higher than a year ago. The jobs picture is not improving, and people are protesting everywhere. Consumer confidence plunged again, and some economic reports are just miserable. I think it will be a long winter.

5. We've rallied too much: Since its low on October 4th, the S&P 500 is up 211 points, or almost 20%. Bank earnings were not great, and tech earnings from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) left a lot to be desired.


Disclosure: I am currently long FAZ.

Stocks: AAPL, AMZN, NFLX