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Bill Maurer
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I am a market enthusiast and part-time trader. I started writing for Seeking Alpha in 2011, and it has been a tremendous opportunity and learning experience. I have been interested in the markets since elementary school, and hope to pursue a career in the investment management industry. I have... More
  • Apple Is On The Clock 1 comment
    Jan 24, 2012 1:23 PM | about stocks: AAPL
    We are approximately 3 hours away for the news we've been waiting to hear for months: results of Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) Q1.

    This is the first true quarter for new CEO Tim Cook, and all eyes will be on this one. Here are some quick notes I have going in:

    My official preview was released the other day, you can read it here.

    Just a little updating my numbers: Since I released my article, street estimates have come up a penny to $10.08. Also, revenue numbers have edged up to $38.85 billion.

    From what I've been hearing all morning, it seems like many will be disappointed if Apple doesn't hit $40 billion in revenues.

    Another thing to watch, the reaction:

    Apple went into last quarter's earnings at $422.24. As of writing, we are only $1 higher than that now. So if you bought before last quarter's earnings, you've made less than 0.25% in three months. That's equivalent to a high yield CD right now. However, if you waited till after the results and got it under $400 or even $380, you've made some decent money.

    I'm not telling you not to get in before the results, but I only see potential upside to $450 in the name in the next week or so. A bad report could take us down to $375. That's basically a 1 up, 2 down ratio, which isn't appealing to me. That's why I'm on the sidelines for now. I'm not taking a chance here.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in AAPL over the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Author will not initiate a position before earnings, but may initiate one after report comes out.

    Themes: Technology Stocks: AAPL
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  • Mac Daddy
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
    The wild card, in my opinion, is Apple's cash management. An announcement of a dividend here will shoot the stock through the ceiling. This, however, is Apple's silver bullet and the company has the luxury of saving such an announcement for a time when perhaps earnings will not please Wall Street. I do not expect Apple's earnings to day to be a disappointment but I do worry that expectations may once again have outpaced Apple's ability to meet them.
    24 Jan 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
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