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Scott Minerd
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Scott Minerd is Global Chief Investment Officer and a Managing Partner of Guggenheim Partners, LLC, a privately held global financial services firm with more than $180 billion in assets under supervision. As Chief Investment Officer, Mr. Minerd guides the investment strategies of sector... More
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  • A Brighter Picture For Jobs And The Economy 1 comment
    Jan 9, 2013 4:03 PM

    Despite the economic headwinds resulting from the fiscal cliff concerns in December, the U.S. economy has shown surprising resilience. Data on wages and hours worked have both picked up over the past several months, which is supportive of future employment growth. Importantly, it also appears as though wage improvement will offset tax increases in the coming year. At the state and local level, the U.S. is forecasted to enjoy the most significant job growth in over half a decade. Contribution to overall GDP growth from the state and local sector is expected to finally turn positive in 2013 after being negative since 2009.

    As the pent-up demand for capital expenditures and hiring from the fourth quarter enters the market, U.S. economic growth is set to continue. All of this news is particularly positive for the stock market, which has already made up losses from the fourth quarter of 2012 and is poised to continue higher.

    Themes: housing, fiscal cliff
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    State and local hiring is only good if you believe in the formula GDP = C(onsumer)+I(nvestment... exports where an increase in G increases GDP.

    You are coming from an engineer’s point of view, not an economist’s. An engineer is dealing with a static formula. The economy is dynamic. If an increase in G results in a decrease in I, which it most certainly has done, or a decrease in C, then there is no gain from an increase in G. It only looks that way.

    You have to be a believer in neo post post neo Keynesianism to believe that a bigger government is good for the economy.
    15 Jan, 12:07 PM Reply Like
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