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Scott Minerd
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As Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer, Mr. Minerd guides the Firm’s investment strategies and leads its research on global macroeconomics. Prior to joining Guggenheim Partners, Mr. Minerd was a managing director at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. He is... More
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  • Taper Speculation Weighs Markets But Yellen Steady 1 comment
    Feb 28, 2014 3:46 PM

    Federal Reserve Chairwoman Dr. Janet Yellen told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday that terrible weather may explain some of the ongoing winter soft patch that has slowed the U.S. economic expansion, but the extent of the impact is unclear. Her view will likely heat up speculation over the weather, the condition of the U.S. economy, and the prospect that the Fed might consider a change in its pre-stated plan to taper bond purchases in $10 billion steps at each policy meeting. Over the coming weeks, financial markets are now likely to become increasingly reactive to each new economic data release.

    Next Friday's release of the February employment report will loom over the coming week and any weakness in that data will place additional pressure on the Fed to revise the trajectory of asset purchases. Expectations are for a humdrum showing - the addition of 150,000 non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.6 percent. While Dr. Yellen has left the door open to adjusting the pace of asset purchases, I remain convinced that short of a catastrophic series of data the probability of the Fed changing course is remote. Nevertheless, investors will continue speculating about the durability of the U.S. economic expansion in the face of upcoming data. Even Thursday's relatively benign comments by Dr. Yellen pushed stocks and bonds higher as investors recalibrated portfolios in the face of uncertainty about the economy and tapering.

    This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. This article contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed as to accuracy. This commentary is for your internal use only and may not be reproduced or redistributed or passed to any other person outside of your organization or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. ©2014, Guggenheim Partners.

    Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

    Guggenheim Partners, LLC is a privately held global financial services firm. For more information visit www.guggenheimpartners.com

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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    Nice article.
    1 Mar 2014, 01:55 PM Reply Like
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