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Mike Arnold
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My investment philosophy is similar to how I live my life: acquire a few prized possessions at the right price, minimize clutter and maintain flexibility.
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  • Tracking My "Alpha Rich" Ideas 7 comments
    Sep 11, 2013 6:14 PM

    It's one thing for me to put myself out there and discuss investment opportunities, and quite another to view the record. While I take my research and writing seriously, I felt it best and most transparent to keep a running log of my ideas and how they have turned out.

    So, without further ado, here is a list of my "Alpha Rich" ideas as selected by Seeking Alpha and those picks performance:

    Note: I have decided to wait one month to post new ideas so as to give the ideas a small fraction of time to play out, although they will likely need longer than that, except for, in the case, I luckily publish a timely article on an event-driven idea that is particularly well-timed, as in the case of Brookfield Office Properties and Societe d'Edition de Canal+.

    As of 10/29/2013

    (click to enlarge)

    I would note that many of the ideas are very contrarian in nature, and that the ideas need some time to play out. For example, I began a position in DREAM at around $12/share, but continued to buy shares as price decreased. I also added marginally to Dundee Corp, as the decline in share price only indicated a wider discount to NAV.

    I will periodically update this Instablog post to track performance and/or provide comments regarding the ideas.

    I may also include my trading actions in order to get a better idea of performance and portfolio management. Going back to DREAM, it's my highest conviction pick. I nearly doubled my position around $10/share, so my account has posted gains in excess of 18% (listed above) with respect to DREAM.

    Hopefully the public nature of this post will help keep my decision-making on point and rational.

    Cheers and good luck out there.

    Disclosure: I am long OTC:DRUNF, OTCPK:DDEJF, LOV.

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Comments (7)
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  • newalker
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
    Thank you. You are one of a very teeny tiny number of folks who will actually post their prognostication track records. (Which in my view is why almost all bloggers and analysts can be safely ignored.)
    Based on your earlier-stated thesis, I am long Dream.
    11 Sep 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Arnold
    , contributor
    Comments (2004) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Hi there, thanks for the note. Sorry about the ill-timed report on DREAM. I wanted to get it out before they released their inaugural earnings report as a stand alone company. In my view, the earnings release was great. But with this fairly illiquid issue on the OTC market and inefficient pricing insofar as it is a recent spin off, I got the timing wrong. But I have nearly doubled my position near $10, and feeling really good about it.
    11 Sep 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • xtddd
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
    excellent! some stocks fits my criterion!
    12 Sep 2013, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • wretchedturkey
    , contributor
    Comments (535) | Send Message
    Mike, after reading your Dream article, I did my own DD on it to gain more familiarity with it and at some point shortly later, went long on the TSX market. The timing of it all could not have been better and I just have this gut feeling that dividends will be in store in the future - my guesstimate is after a full year running is may begin.


    Either way, thanks for your call, your articles and insight have made my 2013 profitable and very exciting!
    8 Dec 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Arnold
    , contributor
    Comments (2004) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » wretchedturkey: thanks for the comment! Glad Dream is working out for you! Dream is my largest position and I expect it to continue to run higher. It should start screening better after it reports full-year 2013 results.
    8 Dec 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3384) | Send Message
    Mike, please continue to update your performance when possible. I expect you will beat the market with your often great ideas.
    30 Jan 2014, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mike Arnold
    , contributor
    Comments (2004) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thanks. I need to update this spreadsheet soon.
    30 Jan 2014, 11:53 AM Reply Like
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