TraderMark's  Instablog

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K202 Comments (4289)
 
Mark - There seems to be a slight malfunction somewhere in your connection. We'll have someone from the Matrix come right over to fix that.

BTW, I think the better way to estimate how the unemployment situation is doing is to look at the total number working each month. New potential employees are trying to enter the workforce each mont at a rate of about 150k per month on average (most enter during the summer months as they complete schooling, others come in through immigration, and others want or need to return to the workforce for various reasons). Anyway, that trend is decidedly down. The economy needs to create nearly 1 million jobs a year just to keep unemployment from rising.

So, with the percentage of the population considered as officially part of the work force continuing to decline, the total number of people working declining, the economy continuing to shed jobs, and more people wanting to enter the workforce but unable to find jobs, it is not such a rosy picture in my mind.

Huh. I guess my connection has a short in it as well. I'm sure that our misdeeds will be noticed by Matrix Central and maintenance will be attempting a reconnect soon.
3 Dec 2009, 08:50 PM Reply Like

tripleblack Comments (11471)
 
I like Trader Mark's new minimalist presentation.

Sort of the "Being There" method.

If he starts walking on water, though, it will creep me out.
3 Dec 2009, 08:55 PM Reply Like

yellowhoard Comments (1505)
 
In the Spring there will be growth.
3 Dec 2009, 09:54 PM Reply Like

yellowhoard Comments (1505)
 
Nah. Just kidding.
3 Dec 2009, 09:55 PM Reply Like

robert.b.ferguson Comments (9429)
 
YH: You are correct. Government jobs or those shovel ready jobs will spread like wild fire in the Malibu.
3 Dec 2009, 11:24 PM Reply Like

Freya Comments (2153)
 
Good, Bad or as expected, The markets will find some sort of reason to go up.

"The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly"

Unforetunately, there isn't anyone I can classify as the "Good".
4 Dec 2009, 01:36 AM Reply Like

enigmaman Comments (2646)
 
Chauncyisms


On Dec 03 09:54 PM yellowhoard wrote:

> In the Spring there will be growth.
4 Dec 2009, 08:27 AM Reply Like

TraderMark Comments (2422)
 
Mark,

Workforce participation fell even further than last month's record lows.

This is the part that effects unemployment rate. I believe I read last month that the number of adults working in Oct 2009 is less than Oct 1999. That says it all...

Once these non participants believe the hype (and or get off government doles) and start looking for jobs again, we should expect another hike in unemployment RATE. But the raw # of people working is scary low when you consider population growth.

It's going to be a very long slog for America.


On Dec 03 08:50 PM Mark Bern wrote:

> Mark - There seems to be a slight malfunction somewhere in your connection.
> We'll have someone from the Matrix come right over to fix that.<br/>
>
> BTW, I think the better way to estimate how the unemployment situation
> is doing is to look at the total number working each month. New potential
> employees are trying to enter the workforce each mont at a rate of
> about 150k per month on average (most enter during the summer months
> as they complete schooling, others come in through immigration, and
> others want or need to return to the workforce for various reasons).
> Anyway, that trend is decidedly down. The economy needs to create
> nearly 1 million jobs a year just to keep unemployment from rising.
>
>
> So, with the percentage of the population considered as officially
> part of the work force continuing to decline, the total number of
> people working declining, the economy continuing to shed jobs, and
> more people wanting to enter the workforce but unable to find jobs,
> it is not such a rosy picture in my mind.
>
> Huh. I guess my connection has a short in it as well. I'm sure that
> our misdeeds will be noticed by Matrix Central and maintenance will
> be attempting a reconnect soon.
4 Dec 2009, 02:10 PM Reply Like

TraderMark Comments (2422)
 
Actually you are correct

1M jobs coming to take the census.

I am serious. :)


On Dec 03 09:54 PM yellowhoard wrote:

> In the Spring there will be growth.
4 Dec 2009, 02:10 PM Reply Like

tripleblack Comments (11471)
 
Goody. Just what we need, more government temp jobs. This isn't "...growth in the Garden", to extend the overstretched analogy, but "...weeds". Temporary weeds, though.

But will we have a million, or just 100,000 ACORN execs that get paid 10 times?


On Dec 04 02:10 PM TraderMark wrote:

> Actually you are correct
>
> 1M jobs coming to take the census.
>
> I am serious. :)
4 Dec 2009, 02:22 PM Reply Like

TraderMark Comments (2422)
 
to be fair we do this every 10 years, no matter what the economy. But it will be a nice way to pump up the data in 2010 and heck it might even be used as an example of "4 million jobs we saved or created". Numbers tend to get jumbled when you spin a pack of lies ;)


On Dec 04 02:22 PM tripleblack wrote:

> Goody. Just what we need, more government temp jobs. This isn't "...growth
> in the Garden", to extend the overstretched analogy, but "...weeds".
> Temporary weeds, though.
>
> But will we have a million, or just 100,000 ACORN execs that get
> paid 10 times?
4 Dec 2009, 10:43 PM Reply Like

tripleblack Comments (11471)
 
Correctamundo. I laugh every time I see another example where Porkzilla (aka, the Stimulus Bill) gets credit for creating more jobs than the total employment number involved.


On Dec 04 10:43 PM TraderMark wrote:

> to be fair we do this every 10 years, no matter what the economy.
> But it will be a nice way to pump up the data in 2010 and heck it
> might even be used as an example of "4 million jobs we saved or created".
> Numbers tend to get jumbled when you spin a pack of lies ;)
5 Dec 2009, 10:41 AM Reply Like