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Biotech & trend trader. Follow me twitter @BiotechMoney18 for more trade ideas.
  • ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd. (IMUC) Spec Play Ready For HUGE Run Up. 5 comments
    Oct 8, 2013 9:36 AM | about stocks: IMUC

    I hope everyone enjoyed the almost 100% gainers from my last blog hit on IDRA in just two weeks or so. I research countless hours to find the next big gainers to shares with everyone as my way of giving back to make you SMILE.

    Many of you follow me closely on twitter @BiotechMoney18 know that i don't just trade in biotech field, but also in many other undervalued stocks base on their fundamental and my research. If you want to win big you got to be open minded and explores many other opportunities out there. That's why i tweet out every night chart and biotech watchlist play.

    Im excited to shares with everyone my next winner pick, this one can be speculative play, but the potential is very HUGE. Read everything i had to say and you can do extra DD. This next big winner is ImmunoCelluar Therapeutic (IMUC) is ready for a HUGE run up to their ICT-107 PII result. Here are my reasons and thoughts.

    Reasons to be BULLISH:

    • From the last CC Dr. Yu said the ICT-107 PII read out data expected in 4Q '13 or 1Q '14 after the 64th events (patient RIP). That's why I feel the time for run up is now. You know my mantra, in early to bank early.
    • The previous result of ICT-107 PI were impressive even though only 16 patients trial for Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM). This is the slide from their last CC on 9/27 (click to enlarge)
    • GBM most common and aggressive malignant primary brain tumor. GBM is rare with 2-3 cases per 100,00 in Europe and America. In US incidence ~12,000 new cases per year. If ICT-107 P II successful & follow up with P III, IMUC MC can turn into ~1 BILLION MC instead of the current ~145 MC
    • ICT-107 P II randomized, placebo, Double-blinded trial. I like how this trial design compare to CLDX and AGEN. As my educated guess the P II will be positive. Here is the slide from their cc (click to enlarge)
    • GBM remains unmet Immunotherapy with other companies like CLDX CDX-110, AGEN, NWBO, STML and IMUC trying to be first in the game successful trial
    • Patients blog on MRI trial result of first hand proved. We can follow to see how the treatment of GBM progress. Check out Chad's blog thebrainchancery.com/ also this Mosman's blog on ICT-107 MRI improvement aheadofcancer.com/great-news-today/ Great 1st hand info on patient progress.
    • Roche group (OTCQX:RHHBY) buy out rumor. This rumor has been going on the past and i wouldn't be surprised if trial result of PII ICT-107 were great it could be a take over target to strengthens their Immune therapy pipelines. In my opinion, if P II successful few big pharm will line up to be partnership with IMUC
    • Not a one hit wonder. IMUC still have ICT-140 (Ovarian cancer) will enter clinic 1Q '14. Also ICT-121 (Recurrent Glioblastoma) activated by peptide (CD-133) current in P1 trial
    • It's possible the ICT-107 trial completed this month, the longer we don't hear from the management (they are remains blinded to all data) the good prospect and value this become
    • Possible breakthrough designation status therapy. CPRX get this status and their stock fly high ever since.
    • There were six form 4( options right to buy at 2.70) very positive.
    • James Bender is the only one actually sales his shares,but it was only small amount and he doesn't have many shares left so not big concern for me.
    • This is another gems biotech with great spec play, in my opinion, there will also increase in institution filing or hedge fund getting in by year end.
    • Five analysts coverage this company with four give it a buy and one a neutral. Price ranges from $5-$18. Barrons rates IMUC also a BUY.

    Management:

    • Many longs were in IMUC because of former CEO, Dr. Singh, but the new CEO, Andrew Gengos is a vision man that looking to market ICT-107 in US. There are two persons in the BOD that i really like and can make this management a successful team.
    1. Anthony Gringeri, PhD. recently joined the team in August '13. His experience in pharmaceutical and biotechnology could make IMUC bigger growth in future. Read his profile.
    2. Keith Black, MD. Serve as advisory Board. Im impressive with his work, by the way, did i mentioned he was also on Time magazine www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/bla1bio-1 read his profile.

    Finance

    Cash (as of 6/30/13) $25.5Millions, 2012 burn rate of ~$3M per quarter, no debt, warrant outstanding 10.3M, float of 54.5M.

    From their last form 10Q, section controlled offering on slide 18 of pdf file. 25M offering with Cantor (17M only registered for sale). There are ~$14M still available according to their 10Q. They did not do more ATM when stock spike last August.

    Many of you and myself concern of potential offering before PII, but with enough cash to last till next year, i doubt they would do it. I also Emailed their IR to asked. Here is the exact word i got back from Dr. Ho, "We may or may not have to raise additional capital to fund additional development of ICT-107, depending on results of the Phase 2 study and/or whether we can get a partner to fund any additional development."

    Back in July-August stock ran from $2ish to almost $4 and there was no raise. With P II so close and stock been lingering there is no point of doing a raise at this current price. That's why i feel its best to play it now for a HUGE run up.

    Conclusion:

    This is a spec play because nothing big yet to be proven on Immunocelluar Therapeutics, the risk is still there. I feel the risk is 50%+ drop if trial go bad, but HUGE 200% plus if trial is good. As always, do your DD this is just my brief take on the company because the more i write, you guys will go to sleep. HA!

    I covered the big pictures, For more details reading about this company to help with your DD. Read the following articles

    Dr. Joseph Pantginis seekingalpha.com/article/1710272-roth-capitals-dr-joseph-pantginis-highlights-3-speculative-biotech-stocks-worth-watching

    PropThink, Dr. Kotak propthink.com/investors-discounting-positive-data-read-out-on-brain-cancer-studies/4943

    Larry Smith seekingalpha.com/article/1424871-immunocellular-therapeutics-marching-toward-top-line-data-for-ict-107-in-q4-2013

    Price Target (PT) $3.60-$4.20 short to mid term, $6+ for longer term hold.

    Final thought: Penny pincher sometimes cause you to miss the big boat, I'd rather be in with starter position and i can always average up or down as i go. Its call accumulation, yo.

    Reason to be bearish:

    HATERS!

    Disclosure: I am long IMUC.

    Additional disclosure: I wrote this article myself and expresses my own opinions. Im not receiving any compensation for it. I have no affiliate with any of the company mentioned above. Im not adviser and suggest you do extra due diligence before taking position. Small cap bio tech always present with great risk and reward.

    Themes: NWBO, CLDX, AGEN, IDRA, STML Stocks: IMUC
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Comments (5)
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  • thank you as always BiotechMoney18..i appeciate your hard work and generosity in sharing. i'll do some dd, and start to accumulate. another IDRA would be sweet..
    8 Oct 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Great article, thanks for putting the time to write this up.

     

    Do you think it would be a bad sign if they do a stock offer prior to the results of the pII study? The way I see it, an offering before pII results would mean poor results from the pII and looking to capitalize from the hype run up.
    8 Oct 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Love the reasons to bearish lol!
    8 Oct 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • What do you think of CLDX and it's upcoming data on ReACT ph II on Nov. 21? If the data is positive and IMUC hasn't released info on ICT-107 yet, I'm guessing it could be bad for IMUC.
    12 Oct 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Why did IMUC drop Dec 12th?
    26 Dec 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
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