Anthony Wissel's  Instablog

Anthony Wissel
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I am a twenty year technology executive. I have taken four software/internet companies public from 1997 to 2001. I now provide M&A consulting services to both investment banks and early stage hardware and software companies.
My company:
Outberbanks Capital Management, LLC
  • Apple: Why Not To Believe All The Analyst Hype Up Or Down! 0 comments
    Apr 24, 2012 2:29 PM

    This mornings move on Apple are again troubling for long term investors and while the worries are valid regarding their continuing growth prospects, I am alarmed by the negativity and just the flat out wrong research that is being delivered to the market by certain analyst.

    Walter Piecyk has been out in front beating the drum that Apple is in trouble based on slow growth and the fact that carriers have already cut the subsidy given to customers to upgrade early. Not only is the information wrong it is flat out illogical. We should remember that Mr. Piecyk is famous for delivering a $1,000.00 price target on Qualcomm on December 29, 1999. We all know how that worked out for Mr. Piecyk and Qualcomm.

    Let me introduce Apples December January roll out schedule to help refute the concerns of soft Verizon and AT&T numbers that is from Apples Investor Relations team.

    For example, the iPhone 4S was launched in the U.S. and six other countries on October 14, 2011, followed by 22 countries on October 28, 15 countries on November 11, 26 countries on December 26 and 22 new countries (including China) on January 13 of this year. Using our 29.6 million iPhone unit forecast for the March quarter, we estimate AT&T would account for 14.5% of total iPhone shipments and down from the 20.5% in 4Q11. During 2011, AT&T represented a quarterly average of just over 18% of total iPhone shipments. Taking a look back at the launch of the iPhone 3GS (6/19/09) and iPhone 4 (6/24/10), AT&T's percentage contribution of total iPhone shipments fell substantially during the first full quarter after the launch. For example, AT&T contributed approximately 43% of 3Q09 iPhone shipments but dipped to 35% in 4Q09.

    The 1,000.00 price targets have done nothing but hurt the individual investors and have largely fallen on deaf ears to begin with. I don't fault the analyst community they are just doing their jobs. Rather I would suggest to anyone that is interested in a long term investment strategy in a company to become an expert in that company. The great Peter Lynch of the legendary Fidelty Magellan Fund advised people to buy stocks of company's you know and like. That strategy has not changed even in today's complex environment. Think about products you like and use everyday. For me, it is Apple, LuLuLemon and Under Armour. These brand have become invaluable to my families every day life. Their products work and make mine and my families life better.

    Investing is not nor should it be so confusing that we need analysts to tell us what to do. We live in age where the same information that is available to that community is available to you if you are willing to do the work.

    Today's earnings will come and go but what won't change is that the value that Apple brings to the world is big and only getting bigger.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in AAPL, S over the next 72 hours.

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