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JKenser
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Trading over 12 years, with an emphasis on small-mid cap biotech. I trade things that have the possibility of making me money generally. I used to trade things that would lose me money as most other newbie traders do, but I got tired of losing, so I decided to change that.. "Win or lose,... More
  • Why $TNXP Is Trading At $10 Instead Of $30 Today... 21 comments
    Dec 26, 2013 9:13 AM | about stocks: TNXP

    When I discovered TNXP at a lowly 3.50 a share, barely putting up 20,000 shares a day I wondered why after I completed extensive DD on the company.

    I reached out to numerous SA contributors, from Doctors in Bio, to overall Guru's, mainly to get their feel for the direction of the company. It was not so much that I needed reassurance of my thoughts of TNXP so much as I wondered how much DD I would get from them as they are considered the "experts".

    After reaching out to at least 25-30 contributors, the overall consensus was that the majority of them use yahoo finance as their "go to" quick fundamental DD source, (minus Joe Springer of course who wrote an outstanding article found here http://seekingalpha.com/article/1870881-4-reasons-tonix-could-be-a-multi-bagger)

    I'm now being contacted by followers who are confused because they have contacted Doctors on SA to try and get a "professional" opinion of TNXP. Their answers are not exactly adding up when you compare the extensive DD that Joe Springer covered in his article in the beginning of December.

    In my experience "the experts" are on the same playing field as all of the retailers, its just a matter of doing the proper DD to find the answers. The market chews these same people up and spits them out just as easily as the rest if they are not on their game.

    TNXP is an anomaly of sorts because the company had numerous big events happen practically at the same time. In May, TNXP did a reverse split as they were in the process of uplisting to the Nasdaq market and needed their price higher for this to make sense. In August they raised around $11 Mil and received their uplist to Nasdaq where they now reside.

    The anomaly is that without truly digging into the story, or reading Joe's article, its easy to have a negative feel for Tonix. After all, according to Yahoo finance they only have 2 employees and what used to be 400k in cash or so. The cash has recently been updated to 7mil but Yahoo still does not add in the 3-4 million the company recently received from warrant exercises.

    The 2 employee debate just kills me every time I hear it as it is just laughable when you actually see who Tonix's Board of directors, Scientific Board, and Management are. If you don't know yet, they are highly skilled, highly trained professionals with a combined value of drugs produced in the 10's of billions!

    Another anomaly was the chart of TNXP before the massive rise to 10 recently. Charts are very difficult to read when a stock goes from an OTC listing to a Nasdaq listing, especially with a reverse split thrown in the mix. So the argument of "if the company is so great why did the price swing from 15 to .36?" makes no sense of course because the chart does not really tell the truth of actual price.

    The market is slowly starting to do their DD here and Joe's article was the perfect lazy mans chance to get days of research into a half hour read. If you have not read the article in full I really urge you to do it today, especially if you are considering an investment in TNXP. Tonix is on its way to $30 sooner or later, its just a matter of when the market is going to figure it out.

    Disclosure: I am long TNXP.

    Stocks: TNXP
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Comments (21)
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  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1292) | Send Message
     
    Kenser,

     

    Good points...thanks for sharing. With so little coverage earlier, this will definitely continue to grow as others try to get in.

     

    I think the limited float and small market cap have kept the big money out of the stock. When CEO decides to sell or go the partnership route.......TNXP has all the leverage. Small retail can go along for the ride but the big boys are on the sideline unless they purchase directly which I believe would be at a premium. Smart set up by TNXP. Glad I was able to secure as many shares as i did?

     

    Love the stock. At this level still plenty of upside. An appropriately sized position would be fine for entry.

     

    D
    26 Dec 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks D,
    I didnt want to come across as sounding better than the experts. I just want retailers to realize that they can be on the same playing field with the proper research.
    26 Dec 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1292) | Send Message
     
    Humility is nice.......

     

    When someone has knowledge superior to others through inquiry or experience, this would make them an expert.

     

    You are a TNXP expert. I doubt there are many people that know more about the company myself included. In authoratative leadership the one whoknowsmost leads. in this leadership it is essential to be able to locate and identify experts for any gIVen situation or event.

     

    In some situations we are much better than the experts because we are the true experts. I agree that retail has a fair chance here but I hope people use a strategy for purchases.

     

    I screen hundreds of stocks a week in order to find one opportunity and sometimes I find nothing. When you find them first....or even early....that makes you an expert.

     

    I had plenty of experts poopooing ClWR, MNKD, FOE, BAC F and others......so what makes them experts? The only expert on my money is me. Although I will outsource if someone has a great idea like TNXP that I can understand. But I am cautious and make sure my margin of safety is high. It helps when Someone like Joe does such great DD.

     

    Best,

     

    D
    26 Dec 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • billyjoerob
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Couldn't agree more. The information argument is especially wrong because large investors rarely have time to investigate one stock in depth, not when the entire portfolio is 100 stocks.
    26 Dec 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Awesome thoughts D, thanks for sharing..
    26 Dec 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (444) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations Kenser on your first blog! I liked it, always enjoy your comments on other articles, and look forward to your next blog. Long $TNXP... and also my current hot item, which could make good blog material... $PVCT.
    26 Dec 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Dennis! I made a good little bit on a short term PVCT trade. I have not done enough DD there to take a longer position though. Its looks pretty darn compelling though.
    26 Dec 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (444) | Send Message
     
    Here's a good $PVCT blog evilbarbie brought to our attention... take a lookie...

     

    http://bit.ly/K7ZGvJ

     

    $TNXP over $11 today!
    26 Dec 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • TheBigFella
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    Nice work brother. I felt the same way in the beginning... questioning why TNXP was so cheep back then. The only question I have now is, why didn't I buy more? DOE!
    26 Dec 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You were in there before I was Big. So nice to see this nearing 11 now.
    26 Dec 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • homerun
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Kenser80, thank you for the post. i'm lucky that i was able to cobble together enough $$$ to acquire 1k shares of TNXP around 8 bucks. do you really think TNXP is a ten bagger waiting to happen per J Springer?
    26 Dec 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • buyandhold???
    , contributor
    Comments (904) | Send Message
     
    it could honestly be more.....in the $2B range its a 40 bagger from here at $50M
    26 Dec 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think if their first pivotal shows strong results like the results in the ph2a or better, than this could go to 50-100 a share. I believe before data we could see 20-30 though.
    26 Dec 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • jdmarr99
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Thanks For the input Kenser! Joes article opened my eyes to this highly undervalued stock, i could not be happier with the returns so far and i am anticipating much larger gains in 2014. Another gem may be PVCT as mentioned above by Dennis, i am currently long on both. Thanks again for your contribution and Happy Holidays!
    26 Dec 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Hi jdmarr99, Recently, I heard a lot about PVCT, which is quite hot now. Compared to TNXP, which one is riskier?
    26 Dec 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • jdmarr99
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    My dd and gut are telling me PVCT is much more of a risk. PVCT is trying to cure cancer and TNXP is only reformulating an approved drug. PVCT should have some good fda news in mid january so im going to stay long in it and roll the dice a bit
    27 Dec 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Thanks! jdmarr99. I did my DD for the past two days and reached the same conclusion. I am long TNXP and will keep an eye on PVCT.
    29 Dec 2013, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • 17147502
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Joe's article encouraged me to do a DD on TNXP and listen to the CEO presentation. I found him very knowledgeable and professional. The presentation was perfect and the day after starting building my TNXP position and will not sell it below $70 per share.
    26 Dec 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • buyandhold???
    , contributor
    Comments (904) | Send Message
     
    I hope we see $20 soon! Thanks for all the clarity buddy. This looks like a once in a lifetime opportunity with a biotech that has a great management team which lowers the risk profile significantly
    26 Dec 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Sir Duke
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    The superior board of directors and promising 2b trials of what appears to be a safe and effective recombination drug make TNXP a HUGE buy. I don't even like investing in biotech but after reading Joe's article and reading everything I could it was impossible to ignore this company. Anyone shorting Tonix is an idiot. Big value here with potential for 10x-20x returns. Long TNXP.
    26 Dec 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • petethepanzer
    , contributor
    Comments (1077) | Send Message
     
    "I think if their first pivotal shows strong results like the results in the ph2a or better, than this could go to 50-100 a share. I believe before data we could see 20-30 though."

     

    love your price targets i think you will be right...outsmarting analysts one step at a time for all bios of interest is a great game to play

     

    if you go on the y boards there are always at least a few longs with a thesis of sorts you simply click replies and get the most talked subjects about each company and see what the real scoop is on each of them and you will be surprised with the level of intelligence from a random stranger is in approaching the same information as the analysts and coming to a vastly different conclusion then them

     

    right now ariad is getting hammered with low targets after they fell from the 20s but imo nothing much has changed except their revenue numbers are a bit low although from a data standpoint their drug is very superior and probably works in at least half of people without causing a severe adverse event which would for them be worth around 500m or half of the second line cml market which at 6x sales would give them a 3b cap which will be realized next year, even still they have an array of phase ii trials and each could be a huge catalyst imo
    27 Dec 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
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