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Patrick MontesDeOca
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Published Technical Analyst, Author, Commodity Trader, Systems Developer, Algorithmic Intelligence, Computer Modeling of Processes. I custom build Proprietary Artificial Intelligence for each individual client's portfolio needs. After more 30 years in the business, Patrick MontesDeOca has... More
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Vedic Codes of the Stock Market Volume 3 – ETFS
  • WEEKLY MARKET SCAN For September 14, 2012 0 comments
    Sep 15, 2012 7:48 PM | about stocks: AG, AGQ, GDX, GLD, PSLV, SLV

    By Patrick MontesDeOca

    If we take a look at the December 30 Year US Treasury Bond Futures charts, we can clearly see that bonds have put in what most classic technical analysts call a Triple Top.

    This chart formation is used to identify major long-term changes in price chart patterns. In this case it looks like the downside target objective is in the 142 area, near term. This puts in a yield of approximately 3.5%, as a potential target short-term.

    In terms of yield, the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yields have gone up from a low of 2.46% made on July 23, 2012 to the current levels of 3.09% as of September 14, 2012!

    Bond prices have come down from a high of $154.17 as of July 23, 2012, to the current price of $144.30 as of September 24, 2012. That is a staggering increase in interest rates of more than 9 basis points in just a few of months.

    Click HERE to enlarge.

    This is a major shift in interest rates, in a short period of time and it signals ownership risk of U.S. Treasuries is at a historical high!

    Let's take a closer look at what the yield technical indicators are telling us for the bond market near-term.

    The September US 30 Year electronic T Bond contract closed at 3.09% yield. The 52 week Range is: 2.46% - 4.39%. The market closing above the daily 9, 18 and 36 day MA's on a weekly basis is confirmation the yield trend momentum is bullish.

    The market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 3% yield, confirms the trend remains bullish. Look to take some profits if long as we reach the 3.18% to 3.26% levels early next week. If stops are taken out here, we could see a sharp rally up to the 3.25% and 3.48% weekly resistance levels.

    Buy corrections at the 2.92% and 2.74% levels to cover shorts and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long use the 2.74% level as a SCO/GTC ( Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order).

    In comparison to the bond market during the same time frame, the price of gold rose more than 10% from a level of $1,608 per ounce made on July 23, 2012 to the present levels of $1,773 per ounce as of Sep 14, 2012.

    It seems the price of gold has gotten ahead of the Fed's decision regarding the highly expected QE3 announcement. It is implying that it has discounted the announcement, since it was looking for a more universally robust plan than what was announced. As a result the move ran out of steam with gold closing at $1,773 per ounce, a slight gain of more than $33 dollars for the day.

    Let's take a close look at the charts and see what the technical picture looks like over the near-term.


    Click HERE to enlarge.

    The December (Comex) electronic gold contract closed at $1,773.6. The 52 week Range is: $1,535 - $1,934.6. The market closing above the daily 9, 18 and 36 day MA's on a weekly basis confirms the momentum is bullish and puts into perspective near-term the $1,900 target levels or the September 2011 highs of $1,934.6 per ounce.

    The market closing at the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of $1,774 is neutral to bearish. Look to take some profits if long as we reach the $1,780 and $1,787 levels early next week. If stops are taken out here, we could see a sharp rally up to the $1,800 to $1,825 levels weekly resistance levels.

    Buy corrections at the $1,767 and 1,761 levels to cover shorts and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long use the $1,761 level as a SCO/GTC (Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order).

    The December (Comex) electronic silver contract closed at $34.66. The 52 week Range is: $26.20 - $40.72. The market closing above the daily 9, 18 and 36 day MA's on a weekly basis confirms the momentum is bullish.

    The market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of $34.65 is bullish. Look to take some profits if long as we reach the $34.99 and 35.32 levels early next week. If stops are taken out here, we could see a sharp rally up to the $36.50 to $37.50 levels weekly resistance levels.

    Buy corrections at the $34.32 and $33.99 levels to cover shorts and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long use the $33.99 level as a SCO/GTC (Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order).

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Trading in the financial markets involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

    Themes: metals, bonds Stocks: AG, AGQ, GDX, GLD, PSLV, SLV
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