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  • What To Expect On Friday's Earnings For Foot Locker, PetSmart, Ann Taylor 0 comments
    Nov 20, 2013 1:19 AM | about stocks: PETM, FL, ANN

    Earnings are approaching rapidly for: ANN FL PETM. They announce earnings this Friday, 11/22/2013. You can check out their historical stock price performance after earnings announcements by going to earningsBounce.com for FL and PETM. Looking at past data, I wouldn't expect a move of much more than +/- 6% for Foot Locker or PetSmart (there is no data on the site for Ann Taylor). None are particularly pricey, but none have exciting growth going forward for the next two quarters - see the tables below. This is due to tough compares from a very solid 2012 for these retailers.

    StockPEPrice/SalesDiv Yield (Trailing Annual)Volatility
    FL13.710.92.1%0.19
    PETM19.321.10.9%0.16
    ANN17.470.7N/A0.2

    All three companies have had solid growth over the last four quarters as compared to the year before.

    StockEPS Qtr. On Qtr. GrowthRev Qtr. On Qtr. Growth
    FL12.8% 8/2013 8.4% 5/2013 27.7% 3/2013 60.5% 11/20126.4% 8/2013 3.8% 5/2013 14% 3/2013 9.3% 11/2012
    PETM25.4% 8/2013 15.3% 5/2013 37.1% 3/2013 50% 11/20125.3% 8/2013 5% 5/2013 14.7% 3/2013 8.8% 11/2012
    ANN20.6% 8/2013 -24.1% 5/2013 16.1% 2/2013 37.7% 11/20127.3% 8/2013 2.5% 5/2013 7.2% 2/2013 8.6% 11/2012

    The EPS picture for each company looks a bit mixed going forward. We should expect a weak EPS announcement for Ann Taylor on Friday, but, hopefully, a continued strong forecast for the following quarter where the growth picture looks too good, so good that I expect some accounting magic at work. EPS is subject to accounting games, but revenue is less so. Ann has the brightest revenue picture going forward at about 6% growth. This is solid buy not extraordinary in the context of a relatively high PE of 18.

    StockCurrent Qtr EPS Growth ForecastNext Qtr EPS Growth ForecastCurrent Qtr Rev Growth ForecastNext Qtr Rev Growth Forecast
    FL0% ( High ) -4.3% ( Ave. ) -10.1% ( Low )22.9% ( High ) 11.1% ( Ave. ) -0.8% ( Low )6.3% ( High ) 3.7% ( Ave. ) 1% ( Low )5.7% ( High ) 1% ( Ave. ) -2.5% ( Low )
    PETM17.3% ( High ) 14.7% ( Ave. ) 10.7% ( Low )3.2% ( High ) 0% ( Ave. ) -4% ( Low )6.7% ( High ) 4.3% ( Ave. ) 3.7% ( Low )0.1% ( High ) -1.5% ( Ave. ) -3.1% ( Low )
    ANN8.3% ( High ) 2.4% ( Ave. ) -8.3% ( Low )321.7% ( High ) 201.2% ( Ave. ) -39.8% ( Low )7.9% ( High ) 6.8% ( Ave. ) 4.9% ( Low )9.5% ( High ) 6.3% ( Ave. ) 2.3% ( Low )

    For a bit more analysis on these companies on the technical side of things, check out: SideBySideStocks.

    Conclusion On the earnings front, it seems like a mixed bag to me. Earnings are always a good time for a surprise, but everything seems so jumbled here on the fundamentals side, that I would wait until after earnings to make any moves (this is almost always good advice). I suspect that one of these stocks will sell-off a bit, probably in excess of what it should, and that might provide an opportunity. If there is good news and the stocks move up, I just don't see much upside (unless the news is shockingly good). As always, be cautious - the term 'earnings surprise' was coined for a reason.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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