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Be Careful Going Into Big Lots Earnings

|Includes:Big Lots, Inc. (BIG)

Big Lots earnings are rapidly approaching - December 6th, 2013. I've compared it to some of its peers (COST DG) to see if it might be a buy going into, or coming out of earnings. I can't help but conclude that it is not. It seems far inferior to two of its peers in the same industry. It is cheaper than Costco and Dollar General, but when viewed in the context of its growth, it is quite expensive. It begs the question - how much should you pay for a company that isn't growing and isn't expected to grow? Big Lots has run a bit and its fundamentals look bad - be very careful.

For more stocks side by side, check out this site.

As always, the stock could surprise and return to growth, but it is not expected to when looking at the estimates. It would have to surprise quite a bit to justify its current valuation.

There are problems with Costco and Dollar General as well. Dollar general looks to have nice consistent growth going forward, but it is priced richly relative to that growth. Costco, while a solid company, looks to be facing tough compares, given its strong EPS growth over the past year. Its sales look to be solid moving forward, but it also is priced a bit richly. While both of these companies look solid, you are not getting a good bargain if you enter now.

As an aside Dollar General has reached a technical buy point if one is looking to initiate a position. Costco and Big Lots have both run a bit, and this bodes ill for Big Lots earnings.

Earnings are approaching rapidly for: DG BIG COST. Check out how much they might bounce, or drop, here.

Stock PE Price/Sales Div Yield (Trailing Annual) Volatility
BIG 13.49 0.4 N/A 0.17
COST 27.08 0.5 6.5% 0.14
DG 19.09 1.1 N/A 0.18
Stock EPS Qtr. On Qtr. Growth Rev Qtr. On Qtr. Growth
BIG -13.9% 9/2013 -11.1% 6/2013 19.3% 3/2013 N/A 12/2012 0.7% 9/2013 1.3% 6/2013 5% 3/2013 -0.4% 12/2012
COST 0.2% 10/2013 18.2% 10/2013 37.8% 3/2013 30.1% 12/2012 0.8% 10/2013 7.9% 10/2013 8.3% 3/2013 9.7% 12/2012
DG 17.2% 9/2013 6.3% 6/2013 13.4% 3/2013 24% 12/2012 11.3% 9/2013 8.5% 6/2013 0.5% 3/2013 10.3% 12/2012
Stock Current Qtr EPS Growth Forecast Next Qtr EPS Growth Forecast Current Qtr Rev Growth Forecast Next Qtr Rev Growth Forecast
BIG N/A N/A N/A 3.2% ( High ) 0.8% ( Ave. ) -3.5% ( Low ) 5.8% ( High ) 2.3% ( Ave. ) 1.4% ( Low ) 1.5% ( High ) -1.3% ( Ave. ) -4.7% ( Low )
COST 14.7% ( High ) 9.5% ( Ave. ) 6.3% ( Low ) -0.8% ( High ) -4% ( Ave. ) -6.5% ( Low ) 12.4% ( High ) 7.4% ( Ave. ) 5.3% ( Low ) 11.5% ( High ) 8% ( Ave. ) 5.8% ( Low )
DG 16.1% ( High ) 12.9% ( Ave. ) 11.3% ( Low ) 11.9% ( High ) 8.8% ( Ave. ) 5.7% ( Low ) 12.7% ( High ) 11.5% ( Ave. ) 10.5% ( Low ) 12.9% ( High ) 11.7% ( Ave. ) 9.6% ( Low )

I've included the nice looking DG chart, showing its consistent growth in EPS and Revenue.

More charts like this on: QoQ Charts

Disclosure: I am long COST.

Stocks: BIG