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  • ECB Printing Money, & Greece On The Edge Of Official Default 0 comments
    May 14, 2012 9:36 PM | about stocks: AA, AAPL, AGQ, AUO, AXP, BA, BAC, SPXL, BIB, C, CAT, CINF, CMG, CRM, CSCO, CTL, CVS, CVX, DD, DDM, DE, DHR, DIA, DIG, DIS, DMND, DOV, DOW, DRV, ECL, EMN, ERX, ERY, EUO, EXPE, FAS, FAZ, FISV, FSLR, FXE, GE, GLD, GOOG, GPC, GR, TZA, UVXY, HD, HPQ, IBM, TVIX

    It could have been a perfect day for rally after China rate cut but the failure of meeting between four parties called upon by Greece President to form new government and rejection of Merkel's Austerity by public poll in Germany lead to broad sell off. Tonight there is lot of economic data is coming out especially GDP's of France, Italy, Germany and whole Euro zone and ECB is printing money which should cause stock market rally through their fine tuning operation. http://www.ecb.int/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html Last Tuesday eventhough ECB printed money, but Greece and France election results caused sell off instead of rally.

    Also, Greece needs to make 436 million in payment and it would default, if they are not making payment. There is no government in Greece, so the decision to make the payment is little messy. If Greece doesnt make payment it would get 7 days extension to make payment but this would be embarrasing for European countries if Greece is not able to make payment. Meanwhile, VIX has jumped to 21.87 at the close but it is still in Contango, it requires another 10% jump to change into backwardation.

    Based on the chart, Dow, S&P500 are still in bearish zone and ideally it should sell off or atleast open lower but a huge leg up from futures could change it into Bullish. Tomorrow ECB is printing money, this will have big impact on futures and tomorrow market is expected to open higher. But there are too many things which could easily change direction of this market. If Germany, France, Italy, and Euro zone GDP shows recession, and Greece default on their payment this market could drop over 300 point tomorrow. But its other way round also, if the GDP is better then expected, Greece makes payment with ECB printing money, this market could be set for huge rally after 8 day of sell off.

    To learn more about SMA check out http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/04/understanding-simple-moving-average-sma.html

     

     

    For Dow to go upside, it needs to break 12725, and 2776 and for downside Dow needs to break 12677. For 2008 like stock market crash, Dow needs to break 12200.

     

     

    For S&P500 to go upside, it needs to break 1335, and 1328 and for downside Dow needs to break 1335 followed by 1328 . For 2008 like stock market crash, S&P500 needs to break 1275.

    There are lots of economic data coming out

    TimeCur.Imp.EventActualForecastPrevious

    01:30EUR French CPI (MoM) 0.3%0.8%  
    01:30EUR French GDP (QoQ) -0.1%0.2%  
    02:00EUR German GDP (YoY) 0.8%1.5%  
    02:00EUR German GDP (QoQ) 0.1%-0.2%  
    02:45EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) -0.2%-0.1%  
    03:00HUF Hungarian GDP (YoY) -0.4%1.4%  
    04:00EUR Italian GDP (YoY) -1.1%-0.4%  
    04:00EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) -0.6%-0.7%  
    04:30GBP Trade Balance -8.4B-8.8B  
    05:00EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 11.713.1  
    05:00GBP CB Leading Index (MoM)  1.0%  
    05:00EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 19.023.4  
    05:00EUR GDP (QoQ) -0.2%-0.3%  
    08:30USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 8.56.6  
    08:30USD CPI (YoY) 2.3%2.7%  
    08:30USD Core CPI (YoY) 2.3%2.3%  
    08:30USD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2%0.8%  
    08:30USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.2%0.2%  
    08:30USD CPI (MoM) 0.1%0.3%  
    08:30USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2%0.8%  
    08:55USD Redbook (MoM)  -1.30%  
    09:00USD Overall Net Capital Flow  107.70B  
    09:00USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 19.4B10.1B  
    09:00USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds  15.40B  
    10:00USD Business Inventories (MoM) 0.4%0.6%  
    10:00USD NAHB Housing Market Index 2625 

    Earnings before market open: AONE, DKS, EGT, ASUR, HD, JCP, MIL, PLUG, SAKS, VAL, TJX, SNSS

    Earning after market close: CERP, NLST, OPXT, SINA, VRML, THQI, LWAY, ULTR, INN.

    After hours big gainer: GRPN, PLAB, ZNGA, OPNT, A, RENN

    After hours big loser: MM, IOC, FTR, HPP, POZN, CISG,

    For day trading watchout BIDU, AAPL, PCLN, MA, V, FAS, FAZ, TZA, TNA, TVIX, XIV, SVXY, UVXY, VXX, SPY, DIA, GLD, AGQ, INFY (remember volatility is not a long term investment option use it for strictly day trading) VIX is still in contango so any rally in it would lead to sell off at close. So becareful with UVXY, TVIX, VXX.

    It's safe to invest in the stock tomorrow. Goodluck.

    Please visit our sponsor at the top or side bar if you find this article useful.

    Themes: Day Trading Stocks: AA, AAPL, AGQ, AUO, AXP, BA, BAC, SPXL, BIB, C, CAT, CINF, CMG, CRM, CSCO, CTL, CVS, CVX, DD, DDM, DE, DHR, DIA, DIG, DIS, DMND, DOV, DOW, DRV, ECL, EMN, ERX, ERY, EUO, EXPE, FAS, FAZ, FISV, FSLR, FXE, GE, GLD, GOOG, GPC, GR, TZA, UVXY, HD, HPQ, IBM, TVIX
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