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  • Can Dow Fall Below 10,000 And S&P500 Below 1000 During US Presidential Election Year? 1 comment
    Jul 14, 2012 1:48 PM | about stocks: AA, AAPL, ACI, AEC, AGQ, AIV, ALXA, AMGN, AMRS, ARNA, AUO, AVX, AXP, BA, BAC, BBBY, BIB, BMTI, BMY, BPOP, BRFS, C, CAT, CCL, CHTP, CINF, CMG, CRM, CSCO, CTIC, CTL, CUK, CVS, CVX, DD, DDM, DE, DGIT, DHR, DIA, DIG, DIS, DMND, DOV, DOW, TVIX, UVXY, XIV, VXX

    Source:http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/07/past-performance-of-s-during-us.html

    This has been the craziest year for stock market. Since the beginning of the year, Global economy showed slowdown in every sector. Macro fears has been maximum, but fear index volatility Vix is down near 52 weak low. Every bad news sounds as if there could be another Lehman like event.

    This is election year, so expect equity to be positive for the first half. Once election is over, S&P500 will turn negative for the year.

    Table Below Shows Market Returns for Each Election Year Since 1928

     

     

    S&P 500 Stock Market Returns
    During Election Years
    YearReturnCandidates
    192843.6%Hoover vs. Smith
    1932-8.2%Roosevelt vs. Hoover
    193633.9%Roosevelt vs. Landon
    1940-9.8%Roosevelt vs. Willkie
    194419.7%Roosevelt vs. Dewey
    19485.5%Truman vs. Dewey
    195218.4%Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
    19566.6%Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
    1960.50%Kennedy vs. Nixon
    196416.5%Johnson vs. Goldwater
    196811.1%Nixon vs. Humphrey
    197219.0%Nixon vs. McGovern
    197623.8%Carter vs. Ford
    198032.4%Reagan vs. Carter
    19846.3%Reagan vs. Mondale
    198816.8%Bush vs. Dukakis
    19927.6%Clinton vs. Bush
    199623%Clinton vs. Dole
    2000-9.1%Bush vs. Gore
    200410.9%Bush vs. Kerry
    2008-37%Obama vs. McCain
    20127.8% and countingObama vs. Mitt Romney

    Majority of the investor were hoping of major sell off after negative JPM earning and China GDP slowed down to 7.6%, but once again market reacted in opposite direction to what majority thought. JPM rallied 6%, while Dow Jones was up 204 point, S&P500 22 point and Nasdaq 42 point. For the week, Dow was up 4 point, S&P500 was up 2.1 point and Nasdaq was down 29 point. since 4th June, Dow is up 732 point, and s&P500 is up 79 point.

    Below chart shows, 1 month, 3 year and 15 year chart of Dow Jones. Next week is very important, if Dow breaks 12,840 resistance, its going above 13k. 1 Month chart needs one more day of rally, to confirm the uptrend. Dow has been in 8000 - 12,000 range for past 15 year. 15 year chart shows, there is possibility of Dow going back to 8000-9000 level because the bull rally which started in 2009 needs correction which hasn't happened. There is no doubt fed will manipulate this market which they are doing even now, but they were present when flash crash happened and when market dropped 1000 point in 2008-2009,2010, 2011 and 2012.

    Dow jones 1 month chart
    Next week is very important if Dow break 12,840 resistance, then its going above 13000. Dow needs one more day of rally to confirm uptrend.
    Dow jones 3 year chart
    Dow Jones 3 year chart there is downside in coming month.
    Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average_15_year Chart
    Dow Jones 15 year chart analysis, shows there will be Lehman like event if key resistance of 12,225 is broken

    Tips: You don't open life jacked inside Air plane. Same way play with bear stock as hedging against downfall. S&P500 and Dow had more bullish month then bearish. So buy quality stock.

    Themes: long term Stocks: AA, AAPL, ACI, AEC, AGQ, AIV, ALXA, AMGN, AMRS, ARNA, AUO, AVX, AXP, BA, BAC, BBBY, BIB, BMTI, BMY, BPOP, BRFS, C, CAT, CCL, CHTP, CINF, CMG, CRM, CSCO, CTIC, CTL, CUK, CVS, CVX, DD, DDM, DE, DGIT, DHR, DIA, DIG, DIS, DMND, DOV, DOW, TVIX, UVXY, XIV, VXX
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  • FWS
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    The only reason the market is where it is currently is due to the Fed pushing everyone into riskier assets for a better return. The can do no more to stimulate the economy. QE has not worked and their final attempt will sound like a pop gun. We will be going lower very soon. Obama has an agenda that the capital markets do not like. PS, good work!
    16 Jul 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
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