Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

TLT vol and skew selling off - time for calls?

|Includes:iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), UST, VXX, VXZ
TLT vol and skew selling off http://chartemporium.blogspot.com/2011/12/tlt-vol-and-skew-selling-off.html


 
If you think central banks continue to ease (QE, USD swap lines, LTRO, ... ) and/or markets continue to be jittery then taking a stab at treasuries to the upside through calls makes sense and has become fairly cheap. Also skew is selling off, which sets up nicely for call spread . Historically as skew sells off, treasuries tend to rally shortly after. Probably just a coincidence, but worth noting.




note: Skew is the difference between puts and calls on an implied vol basis. I usually look at +1/-1 sigma ivol as it normalizes moves across asset classes. (a 1% move in gold is less likely than a 1% move in silver).

Disclosure: I am long TLT, VXX.
Stocks: TLT, VXX, VXZ, UST