Gerry Fowler, CFA's  Instablog

Gerry Fowler, CFA
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Global Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy at BNP Paribas where we speak with institutional clients about our investment views with a focus on actionable implementation and trade ideas. We have a value and data driven investment approach but with a macro focus. We seek to identify opportunities... More
  • Conference Board Leading Indicator changes coming on Jan 26 0 comments
    Jan 10, 2012 4:02 PM

    The Conference Board US Leading Indicator (monthly) is a widely respected leading indicator of economic activity in the US. However for some time now it has been diverging from the other well respected leading indicator from ECRI (weekly).This is uncommon and is creating some uncertainty on economic direction after the recent run of positive economic data. However, Bloomberg reported a couple of days ago that on Jan 26, the Conference Board are issuing a heavily revised calculation for their Leading Index. Importantly, it looks like it will substitute Money Supply Growth (out) for a apparently broader Credit Index. They will also restate the history of the index using this new calculation back to 1990. This is the biggest change in methodology since 1996 and is so the index "is a better predictor of peaks and troughs in the business cycle". It will be very interesting to see how that index changes on Jan 26. My guess is that it will not look as rosy as it currently does.

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