Smiannarone's  Instablog

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I'm an avid investor actively searching for good opportunities in the market. I'm a graduate of C.W. Post university. Stocks have intrigued me since I was a teenager. I've been actively trading for the last ten years and am an every day guy currently working for Cablevision on Long Island. I... More
  • MHR Sold Off BIG!!! 4 comments
    Oct 22, 2013 12:42 PM | about stocks: C

    So.. 8%!!!! WOW.... Here we go.. or do we? If you look at the 10 year charts you'll see that this is standard behavior for this ticker and we should see a sharp rebound into the 8-8.50 range.

    I believe that once we hit at or around the 8.50 levels you'll see another 8% pull back with firm support and great entry opportunities. There are a ton of catalysts coming down the line and a lot of room to run. At this point we are in the early stages of Magnums bull run and I believe the 8-13 PT will be easily achieved.

    If you go to Market Watch you'll see an article that was just written...

    Magnum Hunter Resources Falls further as it's Water Logged and Getting Wetter...? Also new options created with $7 puts or something like that.. Out of the money..?

    Really...? Is everyone that gullible... It stuns me at the timing of these things and really makes me believe in manipulation.. Big money paying people to write smutty articles with wacky themes and baseless but insinuative headlines playing on fear... Then an 8% drop and I should believe this isn't being manipulated? One more for yah.. Over the last year law firms have been posting articles on these oil companies at an alarming rate creating big sell offs... LINE, NES, MHR... to name a few.. Coincidence? No way.. These people don't work for free. I'd bet my portfolio that people are in on this and short the stocks prior to these bashing's knowing the news before it hits. The same people that paid off individuals to start the selling train. Hell they may have even bought a few shares to sell in a frenzy and fuel the fire.. Smart people can do crazy things.

    Some one just made a ton on this sell off and went long at $7 on this. There laughing all the way to the bank and some one else bit the bait and lost a fair amount of money. Go figure.... I used to be naive but I learned that people are capable of astounding amounts of evil.. and that if it smells bad... it is bad... If the food looks like it was tampered with.... send it back.....

    That being said... The stock will hold up and move on from here.. There will be more foul play, it's inevitable.. It's the world we live in... But a sound investment is a sound investment and the other side of the coin says thanks for creating another great entry point.

    My last thoughts... We have about a 61% stake by MHR. It must be at least that much due to the 10% warrant dividend and MHR needs to maintain a 51% stake for control. Then we have at least 15% owned by 5% holders. Factor in the 22% short stake which I believe varies greatly with day traders and you have about 4% of the shares for little guys and insiders. I could be off but this leads me to believe that an overwhelming amount of this stock is being held long and that this bull run hasn't even started yet. Follow the charts back to early 2009 and look at the similarities. as well as 2008. You'll see almost exactly the same occurrence with earnings posts.... Back to back mishaps and rushing to stay current. Both situations led to strong runs. Now lets focus on 2009. Following this there was a solid two and a half year bull run. You will also see on the monthly charts highs and closes roughly $1 off almost every month. Today's behavior is and should continue to be expected as we begin to breach uncharted waters. From my perspective this bull run is in infantile stages and could potentially resemble that of TSLA. In all likely hood MHR will be bought out before 2016 and reward the longs very nicely. I hope you enjoyed this article and can't wait to see how spot on I am... or... Plain wrong..:/ I always feel entertained by making educated observations and seeing if they pan out to be accurate. Feel free to read my other articles on MHR from a few months ago.. I figure you'd wish you read them then cause you'd be up almost 200% or more right now. I've followed every conference call and studied the patterns of this stock on a daily basis. This thing is getting ready to fly :)

    Disclosure: I am long MHR, NES.

    Stocks: C
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Comments (4)
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  • sailorboy tom
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
    I don't think MHR will be sold as soon or as low as many others seem to think. As long as they have "dogs and cats" to sell off to put toward drilling they'll keep working on their core assets.


    I have owned MHR right from the beginning. I had bought PetroResources stock as a penny stock play and have never sold a share and won't until its way higher. I bought some at its last run up to 8+ so my dca is right at 4 dollars but now every 1 dollar move up takes my breath away. My exit will be 50% at 20 and then let the rest ride until they do sell.


    The fundamental of the company are sound and they really do hunt the unconventional.
    26 Oct 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Smiannarone
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I just got a flyer on namg... Pennies scare the hell out of me. I don't touch em' anymore.. lol... But I like what ur sayin'. The 10 day chart on mhr is cent swings like mad. Day traders galore.. Big losers with no vision. It hurts to know every dollar made means some one lost it too. MHRs def. got some legs!!! There is huge value here and I can't wait for the conference call. The way markets are moving and my knowledge of the company I believe were gonna look back on this stagnation in a few months when we convert the warrants and laugh our way straight to the bank. 8-13 is an easy fair value for us and citi's upgrade is fair in the near term. The right news could pop this thing threw the roof. I wouldn't chase it but you could easily ride these 50 cent swings for some big money. I may sell at the 8.50-9.50 mark and start day trading it. I think there will be a lot of 8-10% swings over the next few months into april.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • mitchjl
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
    You are correct as MHR is over the $8.00 as you estimated..Jan 25 2014
    25 Jan 2014, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Smiannarone
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thanks :)
    21 Feb 2014, 05:37 PM Reply Like
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