At Tweaker, we haven't been sitting idly by while our past three articles predictions have been realized. A run-down:
In our article written on March 28th 2012, Michael Kors Holdings Has Major Growth Potential In Next 1-3 Years, KORS was at $45.02. At that time, in Tweaker, we set our growth rates at a range of 45.4-56.7%, giving an average growth rate of 52.7% in the next 1-3 years. We also gave a profit margin of 10-12%. With these ranges, Tweaker had KORS in fairly valued range of $25 - $60. We said KORS could be one to watch in the next few years and could be just the beginning for this luxury brand. Current price of KORS is $53.37 and is still within Tweaker fair value ranges.
On Feburary 29th 2012 in, Don't Get Burned By Margin-Squeezed Chiotle, Tweaker labeled Chipolte as "caution/high risk" and gave CMG a target price of $250.00. We warned that it might be wise to see how CMG's slowing revenue growth would play out in 2012 before getting too confident in the stock and avoid a Netflix-style drop.
That drop was realized 5 months after our article was published and the stock has dropped even further with CMG currently trading at 263.99, almost exactly our price target we gave in February. In the picture below, you can see CMG is now firmly within Tweaker FairValue bars.
What do we expect for Chipolte's future? Q3 almost met analysts expectations with revenue increasing by 18.4% and it seems reasonable for this company that has strong fundamentals, improving margins, and is still growing to be something desirable under $300.00. Anything over that in Tweaker looks overvalued with these current growth and margin numbers.
On Feburary, 27th 2012 in our article, Deckers: Headed For An 'Uggly' Sell-Off, we said "Deckers, is a profitable company with quality products but investors should remain cautious about their growth moving forward because of rising costs of materials and the mania surrounding Ugg's beginning to subside." We said, "it's not the end of Deckers, it's just probably the end of 'Ugg-mania', which could mean that shares of DECK should fall drastically in 2012 unless they can build themselves another quality product line to maintain their currently high valuation."
Tweaker gave DECK a target price range of around $65.00 if growth was 10% and profit margin was 7-8%. The stock was at $75.54 and has steadily declined to $41.48, far below the FairValue bars into the "Buy/Low Risk" range. That said, they need to initiate some serious restructuring. Are margins staying around 8% and growth at +10%? Not likely with any substantial cleaning of the DECK.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.