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In many ways The Gold Informant is just an average Joe. Coming from a fairly typical middle-class family, he married, raised a couple of his own children and now enjoys the pleasures of being a grandfather. Life experience has been both typical and atypical. Working in various fields and having... More
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  • Is Iran About Oil Or Nukes? 2 comments
    Feb 17, 2012 2:11 PM

    In the course of world events, from time to time there is a voice that rings out, bringing change. Sometimes this is a clarion call to freedom. At other times it's portends the rise of a tyrant. On occasion it's the harbinger of neutral change. And, quite often, the voice that rings out never sees the fruit of his warning.

    I am not fan of Iran. It's not that I have anything against them, in particular. It's more than I don't appreciate their religious bigotry or the denigration of freedom that takes place on their shores. Of course, I don't appreciate the denigration of freedom that takes place on our shores either. And, perhaps, that's the point of today's article.

    Iran is not telling the US what to do within her own borders. But that is precisely what the US is telling Iran. And, according to statements in The Tehran Times, what the US is doing today is simply par for the course.

    For clarity, I'm not anti-war; and I'm not anti-government. There is a place and time for both. However, I am anti-tyrannical war. And I am equally anti-corrupt government. The current posturing in the Strait of Hormuz appears to incorporate both.

    Iran is in pursuit of trading oil for assets, commodities and currencies other than the US dollar. Recent embargo efforts certainly aren't detracting them from such pursuits. If anything, it's only strengthening their resolve.

    We've discussed the history of this in some detail. What it comes down to is that much of the dollar's strength is tied to its currency of choice in the trading of oil. If Iran, as the third largest oil producer in the world, successfully divorces itself from any dependence upon the dollar, there would most likely be a significant drop in the value of the dollar. Perhaps, even more devastating would be the perception of the dollar, and the US, in the eyes of the world. Consider this quote from Garry White's article in The Telegraph;

    "The dispute over Iran's nuclear programme is nothing more than a convenient excuse for the US to use threats to protect the 'reserve currency' status of the dollar," the newspaper, which calls itself the voice of the Islamic Revolution, said."Recall that Saddam [Hussein] announced Iraq would no longer accept dollars for oil purchases in November 2000 and the US-Anglo invasion occurred in March 2003," the Times continued. "Similarly, Iran opened its oil bourse in 2008, so it is a credit to Iranian negotiating ability that the 'crisis' has not come to a head long before now."

    Is this the reason for tensions in the gulf? There have certainly been wars for lesser excuses. A falling dollar would obviously be destructive to a US economy already in turmoil. Would war with Iran, in an effort to protect the dollar's place in oil trade, be a viable economic solution?

    The US points to nuclear issues as its reason for being in the region. Perhaps there is some legitimacy to such claims. But does the US really have the right to restrict another nation from such pursuits? Is this a moral, ethical, economic or political matter? Regardless of the truth, unless an amiable solution is worked out in the near future, we should expect oil prices to increase.

    If the dollar's relationship to oil is not hampered, then the status quo will likely be met for the foreseeable future. However, if nations continue to pursue oil trade denominated in anything but dollars, we should expect the dollar to drop significantly in value.

    Whether oil goes up or the dollar goes down, gold is likely to rise. Be prepared.

    For your prosperity,
    J. Keith Johnson

    The Gold Informant

    Themes: Oil, Iran, Gold
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  • Doc 224899
    , contributor
    Comments (932) | Send Message
     
    Iran's resolve is firming less in response to embargos than it is to the rebirth of Turkey as a serious competitor in the race to re-establish the Islamic caliphate. The current US government may be the most Muslim-friendly government Iran will ever see, as well as being the least supportive of Israel, at least for the next decade or so, and the Shiite Iran of the ayatollahs will either rise or fall before the next ten or twenty years has passed. That's what the so-called Arab Spring has been all about.

     

    Iran has watched Turkey project boots-on-the-ground military force into Iraqi Kurdistan for the past 2 years, while the US and the rest of the non-Muslim world hardly batted an eyelash, while secularist generals in the Turkish military were pushed aside or given their walking papers following elections establishing an Islamist power bloc in Turkey's parliament and the election of Islamists to executive positions in the government, first Erdogan and then Gul. Now Turkey as announced its intention of establishing a military "buffer zone" in Iraq that will control the mountains between Kurdistan and Turkey, supposedly to protect mighty Turkey from the microscopic PKK, while Turkey positions itself to be the mediator in Syria.

     

    Iran wants to control the territory within Syria, Jordan, Lebannon, and Iraq. Iran isn't alone in this ambition. The balance of power is shifting yet again in this perpetually unstable corner of the world.

     

    Iran watched Saudi Arabia lead a multi-national Sunni military mission across national boundaries in support of a Sunni government over a Shiite population, while the US and the rest of the non-Muslim world took little notice.

     

    Iran watched Sunni influence in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt swell in the Arab Spring.

     

    Now, this week, Iran is encouraged because the US government expresses support of a revolution in Syria that may put a Shiite faction in power that will be subordinate to Tehran, or a Sunni government subordinate to al Qaeda, or to the Muslim Brotherhood (which is almost the same thing now that al Zawahiri is the head of al Qaeda), or subordinate to the Wahabbis in Mecca (which is not quite the same thing), or subordinate to the Turks (still Sunni and hence no friend of Tehran's Shiite ayatollahs, and the ancient enemy of Iran after Turks stole the caliphate from the Persians).

     

    Iran is on the verge of being a net oil importer due to the rising energy demands of its growing middle class and peak oil in Iran, with no other viable source of income or influence, so Iran continues to use oil as a weapon knowing that time is short.

     

    Iran went to gold instead of the dollar as the currency of exchange for oil sales around 2 years ago. This is almost the same period of time since Mahmoud Ahmedinejad gave the United States the last public invitation to accept Islam required by Shiite religious law before engaging in holy war to claim or subjugate a non-Muslim land.

     

    It is only natural for Iran to see nuclear power as an energy source and as a weapon. Oil has been an Islamist weapon aimed at the west since the early 1970's. Now oil has become a weapon Islamists aim at each other and at the west.

     

    And so it has been for the last 1400 years. This isn't about anything less or more than the rise and fall of sectarian factions within Islam, and the rise and fall of Islam in its self-assigned religious obligation to dominate the world. The demand for oil and gold, the value of uranium and potable water, and the national boundaries drawn over the deserts and mountains are merely the props temporarily on stage at the present.

     

    Failing to see it as such would reveal geopolitical naiveté.

     

    Doc
    21 Feb 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • The Gold Informant
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you for your contribution and perspective Doc.
    21 Feb 2012, 08:32 PM Reply Like
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