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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #4 133 comments
    Feb 10, 2014 9:18 PM

    I'm setting up this blog ...as community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!!

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please, please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    This is Chapter #4. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog.

    Links

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas:
    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (133)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Everyone!
    .
    So many interesting ideas have been posted & lots of expertise. Thank you to the experienced, for so generously sharing with those of us who are newer!
    .
    What's happening with Fed & politics noise, that you're seeing opportunities from -- for more market bull, or chance for buys?? And who's going on vacation & ignoring all the noise :).
    .
    There's so many topics started in chapter 3 -- bring there here to continue, where possible...
    10 Feb, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My first question... I sold out of Nasdaq (QQQ) when it broke even. Any Nasdaq stocks you think are undervalued buys right now, especially with dividends? I decided with (TWTR) and others, there's too much drama in this index (overvaluations playing musical chairs). I want to choose my own holdings.
    10 Feb, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3748) | Send Message
     
    Maybe closer to fair valued - (FTR). High yield, and it took its dividend cut lumps a year or two ago. I hold a small position.
    10 Feb, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    Lomah, (MSFT) looks very good to me. I'm looking for good things from them, now with their new CEO. Pays a dividend too.

     

    (QCOM) has been hitting on all cylinders. Cisco (CSCO) is not one of my favorites. Cisco needs to do something to get its mojo back. Same with (IBM), which is really beaten down right now. (AAPL) Apple is a favorite of mine. As always, go in slowly. I wouldn't buy a 100 shares all at once.

     

    Merrill Edge is the best brokerage to get free trades. Move your money to Bank of America, so you get those free trades faster :)
    11 Feb, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Agree with blue on (MSFT) , the value may finally be released with the new management team , in the meantime they offer a decent yield and should be able to weather any market correction fairly well.. good LT holding
    looking at a LT chart it has just broken out of a 13 year base -- a very positive sign for the LT ---
    11 Feb, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I'm waiting for Yellen to speak. I don't know what to believe about her. Some say she's worse than Bernanke when it comes to QE, other say she's a hawk when she has to be. I remember I read it somewhere, sometime ago that Yellen said that it's ok to have a higher inflation rate to promote growth, but for some reason, I can't find that article that say this anymore. :C
    10 Feb, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @Newbie
    Inflation at this point, would be a good thing. It's low, so that's move it to better. The 2nd in command is Fischer, and he's known as a hawk, who's not the strong on QE... and even less on predicting what guidance will be "well in advance." So probably won't be pure dovish QE hanging out all over. ...which is good in my view, and in the market's back in Nov. Time to move on & let the economy grow naturally...
    10 Feb, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    Some mutual funds are ok, a good place to park your money if you don't want to risk holding your own stock picks.

     

    Looking at (RVT) Royce Value Trust, I googled their holdings. Some excellent companies are in the fund. However, when you look at a 10 year chart

     

    http://cnb.cx/1eQ63PK

     

    (RVT) is still not back to what it was in 2007. Meanwhile, stocks like (LMT) have soared past their 2007 level. You could argue that not everyone will have the skills to pick great stocks. But why not try?

     

    Even (KO) Coke is doing way better now than it was in 2007, & it's one of my most annoying stocks right now - didn't do much last year. A lot depends on when you bought. (LVS) was actually $145 at it's top in 2007, then crashed & has come back to $76 yesterday. One of my best performing stocks, as I bought it early last year.

     

    Last year after reading extensively here on SA, I dumped all my bonds & mutual funds. Here's why, using one of my favorite companies Lockheed Martin (LMT). Twenty years ago, you could have put $50,000 in a let's say 10% bond (which I'm sure you couldn't have found, but let's just pretend you could for the illustration). So after holding that bond for 20 years, you made $5,000 in interest every year, for a total of $100,000. Plus your original $50,000 = $150,000 after 20 years. Sounds good, right? Now let's see what buying $50,000 of (LMT) 20 years ago is worth today. Twenty years ago, (LMT) was $20 (you might have even bought it in Feb. 1994 for $19, but let's make this easy).

     

    So $50,000 would have bought you 2500 shares of (LMT) in 1994. Today, 2500 x $154 = $385,000. I didn't factor in dividends….but today (LMT) has a $5.32 per share dividend. Hmmm that's another $13,300 this year, $5.32 X 2500 shares. Nice!

     

    There are reasons to hold bonds or bond funds like (PTY) to reduce your risk, or get a higher monthly income from your portfolio. But only holding mutual funds/ETFs plus bonds/bond funds restricts the power of your portfolio to make you money.

     

    It is important to pick stocks wisely. My argument is high quality, dividend growth stocks will do well for you. Especially after several decades.
    11 Feb, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    BSF...
    Your math is a little off for two reasons, the main one is a 10% coupon is paying you a lot more today. So lets say you bought $50,000 the first year you receive $5,000 of those get reinvested so in year two, you know have $55,000 which should be getting 10% or something along those lines, year 3 is slightly over $61,000... etc.
    The second part is you have to take into account the lower risk and lower volatility of a bond investment vs a stock investment.
    It's like saying why would anyone own the S&P index its much "better" to own a small cap value index, and if your time horizon is 30-40 years and you never plan to sell or make any changes that is probably right but you can't tell yourself you are holding the same type of asset.

     

    **This is in no way an endorsement to buy a bond, especially one for longer than 5 years**
    11 Feb, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    Yair, that's true, what you do with the interest is up to you. If you bought companies like (LMT) then you would have done very well indeed.

     

    Back in the 1990s, I'm pretty sure about 6% is what you would have been able to get for a corporate bond (not AAA of course), that's part of the reason I made it 10%….but you could run a backtest, and use a future value calculator to see what would have happened to that annual interest, in a savings account or buying additional bonds.

     

    Point is, I would have bought pretty much the same companies back in 1994 that I now own. And the results would have been far better than what I did do with our investment money, which was put it into mutual funds & bonds. Back in those days my husband & I were both working full time in our corporate jobs so we had 401k plans, which I thought was good enough. Sorry to say, they weren't….and if I could go back in time, I'd tell my 1994 self to buy good quality, blue ribbon stocks. It would have made a huge difference to our finances. It's the old adage, "If I only knew back then what I know now."

     

    For those that wonder about what effect 2009 would have had on my investments….well I never sold anything during those years. Instead, we continued to make regular additions to our retirement & investing accounts. Problem was, they were mutual funds & bonds. Had I instead bought the same stocks I like to buy now, we could be fully retired now, in our later 50s.

     

    It's kind of funny really, in 2009 I paid off our house mortgage - which did save a lot on interest.

     

    What I would like to do is encourage everyone, and especially women, that they are smart enough to invest in stocks on their own. You just need to spend time on research and due diligence. Please read Chuck Carnevale's article on how he does DD. It's very educational. Along with as many excellent books on how to invest as you can. SA is a wonderful resource, right at your fingertips. Many excellent authors here to teach you, from how they built their portfolios to how they do research.

     

    It's important to figure out what kind of investor (or trader…) you are. We don't all have the same risk tolerance, skill set (especially for options trading, which I don't do!) or even goals.

     

    In another decade, my goals will change. My brain may be fried, so bonds could be one way to play it safe. For now, we are still in the accumulation phase, maximizing as much as possible what we can get from investing.

     

    My husband has no interest in investing. He spends his time on his career as an electrical/computer engineer. Thank goodness, I've done all right over the years. It did help that I'm a terrific saver. My son regularly tells me to live a little. He's tired of hearing my lectures on how to save money, never buy anything unless it's 70% off & you have a 30% off coupon (I live Kohls) well you get the idea ;)

     

    I am living proof of the "millionaire next door" that you would never expect to be successful. Our cars are old, my clothes are old, and well I'm old too! lol but we will have a secure retirement & someday, I do hope my son will thank me.
    11 Feb, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    I was curious myself, so let's say the 20 year bond, bought at par for $50,000 was earning 6 % per year. Here's what would have happened if you took the $3000 yearly interest earned & put it into a 6% account, compounded….

     

    http://bit.ly/MIAM6B

     

    So that's roughly $120,000 plus $50,000 = $170,000.

     

    I'd still rather own stocks, like (LMT).
    11 Feb, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    Don't leave him too much!
    13 Feb, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF,

     

    Something to consider when backtesting is confirmation bias -- picking the stocks that did well, while some of your funds would have gone into slower growth, or even now bankrupt companies like Hechts (aka JCP).

     

    Research shows better returns with stocks over longer term, than bonds & CDs during the same time, but with more risk. So I'm sure no matter how you do the math, it'll basically come up with that :-).
    13 Feb, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    David Darst, Morgan Stanley just said on CNBC….

     

    *profits are estimated to have grown 8 % in 4th quarter 2013, being reported now

     

    *profits for 1st quarter 2014 are expected to grow 4%, so we will see a dip from that when it's reported later this year, starting in March

     

    *profits for the remainder of 2014 expected to be:
    2nd quarter 10%

     

    3rd quarter 10%

     

    4th quarter 14%

     

    Let's keep investing, stay focused & you will have a very good 2014. Keep buying the dips.
    11 Feb, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    For those that have their eye on the EM,s

     

    http://bloom.bg/1emfKRg
    11 Feb, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    nice story :)
    11 Feb, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    if you pick the right companies, China is going to make you a lot of money in the coming years as those over 1 billion people start spending their money.
    11 Feb, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Lost with all of the "yellen" testimony today ..
    The republicans bring an apparent end to any debt ceiling issues for now , & that takes a big unknown away from the market ..

     

    http://nyti.ms/NzBtAk

     

    While I wasn't paying attention to any of the budget stuff as in my view its a non event , BUT apparently many were "short" or worried at the prospects of another gov. debacle.. and today's action may be a result of that ...

     

    While i thought Yellen handled the testimony well, she surely didn't say anything new,, and as such it shouldn't have had any effect on the markets..
    Many are saying this is a "fake" rally , we'll see ..

     

    Of course most of them have said that now for a while.....
    the more that are in that camp , the better i feel about equities going higher :)
    11 Feb, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    When the Yellen testimony gets boring u might want to read this to break the monotony

     

    http://nyti.ms/1emhqu2
    :)
    11 Feb, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    oops, this is the one that made me chuckle….and glad we don't live anywhere near them :)
    11 Feb, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    I am shorting aggressively right here, GS, NFLX, LNKD
    11 Feb, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    how about (TSLA) ?
    11 Feb, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Small short at 198
    11 Feb, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro
    What options are you using for shorting?
    12 Feb, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    markets opened higher, let's see what happens with Yellen starts talking…lol

     

    I'm in it for the long haul. If markets go south, I'll be looking for opportunities. (DUST) anyone?
    11 Feb, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Tapering is tightening.
    11 Feb, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    I am quite short now. Betting we roll over led by high growth, financials. Linkedin cracking here headed for key 200 test. Largest short.Gold spiking back to the highs.
    11 Feb, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    Macro wish I had your courage I'd love to short those do nothing internet companies, and (TSLA) LOL.
    11 Feb, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Watch LNKD and GS. Gold is going nuts here. Watch IWM too.
    11 Feb, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have an opinion on (RDEN) looks a little interesting.
    11 Feb, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Yair,

     

    ii dont follow it , but technically it looks like many of the "retail" co. charts i am following

     

    oversold , beat up and thrown away .. many are gems here but i dont know enough of the fundamentals with (RDEN) to say its one of them.

     

    have u followed it for a while..
    11 Feb, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    Not at all just came up when I was looking at 52 week lows, its a high growth name so they never get too cheap, maybe a small position...

     

    Regardless I think I needs a woman's opinion.
    11 Feb, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair - it's one of the major cosmetic companies, In department stores, it's one of the anchor brands. Along with Clinique, & a couple others. It's not a drug store brand (Revlon, Physicians, Covergirl).
    .
    I have no idea how it's business is doing lately. But there's nothing different about it's appeal (positive or negative) in the last few years that I'd heard.
    .
    The dept store base sales are their skin products. There's been so many coming out by the drug store brands lately that are supposed to end wrinkles and make the calendar go backwards... maybe it's having an effect? Also how big is the natural products market? In my neck of the woods, there's big movement to organic stores... but my neck of the woods is an odd non-representative demographic.
    11 Feb, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3748) | Send Message
     
    Organic make-up? Berry juice and yogurt masks? :)
    11 Feb, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, I've bought shampoo, that sounds just yummy.
    11 Feb, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11038) | Send Message
     
    What ever happened to good ole mud ??
    11 Feb, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3748) | Send Message
     
    I was lucky enough to get a wife that looks beautiful w/o make-up. :) Most women do, actually....

     

    A few, though... Some need the cosmetics. ;)
    11 Feb, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11038) | Send Message
     
    Butter face,,, You heard that one ?
    11 Feb, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    I was in Amsterdam recently they had an entire store filled with strawberry butter creams for your face, its all edible too the sales woman actually ate some infront of me it was kind of weird.

     

    My GF thought it was more of a fad type of thing that really works well when buying a present she said she would never buy those things regularly.
    12 Feb, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair:

     

    Good grief. So if I take my makeup carry on... and the airline food isn't good?
    .
    I've bought E.Arden for the colors offered. Your research tell you anything yet?
    12 Feb, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    I passed on them not cheap enough, not consistent enough.

     

    (EZPW) still kicking ass!
    13 Feb, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    (EZPW) sure is a happy camper today 7%! Are you in it - congrats!! Why did it do so poorly since mid-2011... and why is it perking up this year?
    13 Feb, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • AIWIMMF
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH
    (EZPW) is a way to go long (GLD) with much less risk and the same or high upside than buying a miner. There decline in price is based on the drop in gold price which led to the drop in earnings from gold scrapping, and also lead to the bankruptcy of one of the companies they had a 30% stake in Albemarle Bond.

     

    (EZPW) market cap $500mil (now 700) they operate pawnshops in the US/Mexico,

     

    They hold an equity stake in an Australian pawn shop company thats valued at 120 million.

     

    The stock has been hit hard due to the falling gold prices effecting their scrap sales and they had to write down some of their equity stakes in other businesses for the same reason.

     

    Every other part of the business is growing and profitable, my estimate for 2014 earnings is between 70-120 mil even the low end of that is 8x (10x now) next years earnings for a business that is growing and has had consistent growth for the past 10 years. The company has minimal debt, they are attempting to retail more of their jewelry instead of scrapping it which could improve margins. There is a lot of potential for a strong surprise if gold prices move up but I think its great regardless of where gold goes.

     

    Lots of growth potential from new Pawn Shops in Mexico and online lending.

     

    The ROIC is 20% for new pawn shops opened in Mexico and they have low capex to earnings.
    14 Feb, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Potential right shoulder forming now SPX.
    11 Feb, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    Does it hold predictive value ?
    11 Feb, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Pressing LNKD short here.
    11 Feb, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ Macro

     

    Good luck with (LNKD) short -- let us know how it goes! There's a few over valued tech stocks... shorting requires timing too. Any reason you're picking now?

     

    Also, if you can bracket () symbols, than others can roll over (mouse over) and see what they are.
    12 Feb, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11038) | Send Message
     
    Gold holding up pretty well today. Not sure why we have such a rally when Janet said nothing new..Humm
    11 Feb, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IT
    Maybe it's nerves over EM... not by the investors in US equities... but by the worried-lot who see all the debt, QE, etc, as problems.
    11 Feb, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Tack has mentioned (VALE) here as a way to get exposure to EM stocks

     

    another positive mention here :

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Feb, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    China is hardly "dead'

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and of course the "experts' doubt any positive reports from China , it seems they only wish to believe the "negative " reports as gospel :)
    12 Feb, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    More on Em's & China
    http://read.bi/Mc3QUa

     

    Recently the "1929 " chart was rolled out again on a blog here as a comparison to the current market situation .. The Doom & Gloom crowd would have us believe this market is in for the same fate:

     

    Perhaps another view ---one that is a bit more intelligent is warranted :

     

    http://bit.ly/Mc3QUb
    12 Feb, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ Fear

     

    Thanks for all the EM links!
    .
    I doubt we'll have the huge sudden discover of EM that happened in early 2000s with the large run up. But EM is a viable market, and it's been trailing while US has been doing well last year. So at some point, it will come up. Any particular EMs you're focused on? China, Argentina, Chile, Asian Rim, Middle East Turkey etc. and developed, Europe, Japan?
    .
    I don't think this blog is very doom & gloom, so I think the topic is more about... how and when and where on EMs, to take advantage of a downtrodden "sector."...
    12 Feb, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I didn't mean to imply THIS blog was gloom & doom , quite the contrary,, it's well balanced and informative ..

     

    but there are still many that thrive on that scenario here on SA

     

    :)

     

    I don't have an opinion on the EM's as of yet , gathering info and listening to what many here are saying ...
    12 Feb, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I am all out right now. I think the euphoria could wear off right after Janet Yellen's testimony or it could wear off right before it. I don't know, I could be wrong. But hey, I could always go back. Good luck all. XD
    12 Feb, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    unless you are a " trader" ..

     

    Going all in or all out has its drawbacks ..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Feb, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    lol. Very true, I could get caught all-out when the S&P go up 6% in a week. But we also got this January effect going, a week ago everyone was jittery of a crash, and now everyone seems to be bullish all of a sudden (when nothing has changed during the week), so I will take a break here, but thanks for the advice. Good luck.
    12 Feb, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ Newbie
    If that's what feels best to you!
    .
    Personally I went out last summer for the first time, and it didnt' work out. I would have been better off keeping a small amount in, so I'd be less skittish about getting back in.
    .
    What's you're goals? Are you trying to time the market? Or trying to avoid principal losses? Or by contrast, do you have a long horizon and want money in the market for a while... Or are you trying to learn how to trade?
    .
    I agree that things are much more volatile for now (quit a few SA articles on that). The ups and downs are coming, without solid steady connection to the data. I'm in it for long term (over 15 years horizon)... so beyond getting back in from my going out (which I'm having trouble timing emotionally)... Ideally, I just need to be in as planned, and not think about it all too much. Right now, I'm learning more on individual picking... and even on EFT selecting... and a little trading... so hopefully my long term plan will be more skilled than it was.
    .
    While you are going all out, will you meanwhile continue to learn or draw up your plan for when it feels right to get back in?
    .
    I'm not jumping back in with everything. Everyone seems to be keeping cash for opportunities. I do expect sometime in the next 6 months, a slide down period -- not sure what the trigger will be. However, if first there's increases, it could easily be a wash. So I like the approaches Tack, and Fear have suggested... looking for solid dividend paying stocks and buying when they're devalued and have good entry points. For the rest of the money, I'll leave it in EFTs the way I have for years, and it's done quite fine.
    .
    Do keep us posted as you decide what's right for you and / or learn things!!
    12 Feb, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I am concern with principal lost right now. I can't put my fingers on it, it's just that sort of feel that you get when you put in your money then the market go up then down then up more then a fear then a crash. It's very hard to describe.
    To me the feeling is it sorta like listening to Italy opera, you don't know the words but when listen to it long enough, you could begin singing yourself. Not that I think I am that good. XD It just that I feel anxious. Good luck to the rest of you. I'll come back to the market when something change (good or bad i don't care but something)
    I suppose someone would make fun of me in a week or two if the market swings up on the upside. Well... whatever. XD
    12 Feb, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,
    i will echo Lomah's remarks , and add --- all of the investors here have made numerous mistakes , that's part of investing .....

     

    Best of Luck .... :)
    12 Feb, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    Newbie, you have to do what allows you to swan - "sleep well at night."

     

    Depends on your age too. If you are young, you have decades to grow your investments. If you are retired, that's a whole different situation. Then you might want to invest in secure things that will give you income for your retirement.

     

    I just did some more backtesting today, so now I'm pretty depressed : ( Back in 1994, I did have quite a lot of money saved up…but did not put it in the market. I guess it made us feel good, to have money for emergencies.

     

    So I took the same stocks I own today, to see how much they would have cost back then, and to see how they would have done 20 years later.

     

    Basically, some did over 10 times (AAPL) and some did 4 or 5 times…so roughly whatever money had been put in the market back in Feb. 1994 would have increased 5 times. Dividends…didn't figure them out, but that would have just been the icing on the cake. Even after paying taxes on the dividends. Re-invested, well that would have been smart.

     

    Then I checked (SPY). That increased 4 times, with a yield of 1.88 today. So even if you just put it in (SPY), that would have been a good idea.

     

    The cost of not investing the $200,000 I had in cash, back in 1994? Over a million dollars today.

     

    The stocks that I would have put that money into are (AAPL), (JNJ), (MCK), (CL), (IBM), (COP), (KMB), (MMM), (LMT), (MCD). I own all these stocks today. I sold nothing back in 2009….I'm a "buy & hold" kind of person. Back in 1994, my husband & I had 401k plans. However, having an investing account & putting your money into high quality, blue ribbon companies is well rewarded decades later.

     

    It's always a good idea to put money to work slowly, a set amount each month. That way you can put more in if the market dips, or less if it's at all time new highs (maybe skip that month).

     

    I've learned over the years not to put too much $ in all at once, and to buy only the best companies. The longer you hold, the better the results.
    12 Feb, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ Newbie

     

    No one should make fun of you for following your instincts. Even if turns out they aren't predictive... if you sleep better at night, that's the thing to do.
    .
    Do stick around and chime in when you feel like it :).
    12 Feb, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    LNKD is breaking down solidly. Largest short. Other growth stocks very shaky. Trade looks very good right now; Ex IWM but I expect it to follow the leaders down.
    12 Feb, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Tapering IS tightening. Don't forget that. Don't fight the Fed.
    12 Feb, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ Macro
    Seems like you bring a very different background and perspective than others on this blog. Hopefully the sharing ideas helps! Are you still short term oriented? Or adding some long term as well?
    .
    Biotechs in general seemed to get attention as the bull ran last year. A lot of folks looking for 10baggers. I'm not surprised it's seems overdone by now.
    .
    There's varied opinions about QE and tapering expressed by people I've respected. One thing is for sure, it makes Fed news much more market moving than the norm! As in don't fight the Fed (if we could only figure out what that means to do...)
    .
    >>"Trade looks very good right now; Ex IWM but I expect it to follow the leaders down. "
    What do you mean? That the market is short term headed down?
    12 Feb, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Sell when no-one wants to sell. Buy when no-one wants to buy. Which is it now?
    12 Feb, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    patience.. unless one is a "trader"
    12 Feb, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    I suppose I am. Started in a futures pit, so days to weeks in long term for me.

     

    BTW Emerging markets continue to weaken today, after opening very strong. Not sure about them yet.
    12 Feb, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Btw the way for the "No -One is long, no bubbles anywhere, everyone is bearish" crowd, check out IBB Biotechs. That group is pretty bubble like in my view.
    12 Feb, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    Huh. Yesterday I sold off most of bpopp for a profit and put that money into a couple of other funds that I considered to be better plays for the coming year. I checked the remaining bpopp price in my account today and was surprised it had gone up 126%. Yes, a preferred went up 126% in one day.

     

    I have since verified that number with other sites I use. I see two possible options:

     

    1. The numbers for all of these sites are incorrect.

     

    2. Somebody really, really screwed up a limit buy order entry.

     

    I had a limit order set for a 10% gain on the few shares I had remaining - I'm kind of doubting it gets hit even though from the charts I've looked at the price spiked during trading hours and not after. But until tomorrow morning, I am king!
    12 Feb, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @U7
    Ummm?? Any chance you can sell after hours? ...is this a new version of a flash crash, a quick short flash upwards that lasts for hours, lol?
    .
    What funds are you positive on?
    .
    Are you concerned about what prices will do with continued tapering, or when rates finally go up (ZIRP ends.)?
    12 Feb, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Are we out of the correction woods, and headed up from here?
    12 Feb, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Technically , things look better, however the only way to be sure that this corrective phase is over would be for the S & P to take out the old highs of 1850.. There are many scenarios that can take place from here...

     

    We may be setting up for a retest of those highs or finding a trading range to settle back into .. there is no way to be absolutely sure...

     

    Best to commit any new funds to shares you really like OR be patient and wait for the market to tell us the direction of the next move..
    12 Feb, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack posted a great summary of preferred advantages. Anyone have experiences & war stories to share? (User7's blog is all about CEFs & Prefers). Do they tend to do growth at same rate as their common shares?
    .
    .
    From Tack:
    Many common stocks also have preferred issues, which usually are labelled with letter series, e.g., RSO, RSO-A, RSO-B, etc. All preferred stocks can be researched at http://bit.ly/qWc98b. You buy them like any other stock.
    .
    The benefit of preferred stocks is that:
    a) dividends cannot be cut
    b) preferred dividends must be paid in full before any common dividends paid
    c) preferred dividends cannot be in arrears if any new preferred or common shares are to be issued
    d) if the issue is cumulative (most are), any suspended dividends must be paid in full before any new issues are made or common dividends paid
    e) in any bankruptcy, claims of preferred rank ahead of common
    12 Feb, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    Probably not much growth. You buy them for the dividend. Hopefully you buy them below par and you could get a captial gain if you sold it at par.

     

    That thing yesterday was an anomaly. I think someone screwed up with entering an order. I had a limit order in to sell a bit abover par, but I don't know if that order got executed yet. Instead of flashcrash, I would call it a flashbang.
    13 Feb, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7
    Thanks! I've seen really odd numbers in pre-post market trading. Did you get "stuck" selling in a flashbang?
    13 Feb, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    Nope. Unfortunately, my sell order did not execute. Contacted the broker and their reasoning was that someone must have placed a market order at another brokerage to buy and someone else had a limit sell order in for $50. Good news was that I did sell most of it the day before for a profit.

     

    Another reminder to always use limit orders with low volume stocks and not to buy one if you would need the money in short order!
    13 Feb, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    User ,

     

    good advice -- I ONLY use limit orders , on any order placed, whether it be a Low volume stock or a Dow component...
    13 Feb, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    I'm mildly irritated that I didn't get the gain, but at least I wasn't the one who put in that market order. Paying $50 for a callable preferred? Ouch.
    13 Feb, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The debt-ceiling measure was approved by the Senate until March 16, 2015.
    .
    Takes pressure off the market??
    .
    Is the end of ZIRP next year going to start effecting the market's mood?
    13 Feb, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Energy sector is down these days. Can anyone outline what brought it down & the positive influences are that will be bringing it back up?
    .
    Studies show something like 70% of return is based on allocation, more than on specific selection... so weighting on down trodden sectors may be a great way to get more return...
    13 Feb, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    It takes the "unknown " away for the time being.. I believe it was part of the reason for the 20 point S & P surge the other day when they announced they were about to vote.. IMO opinion that surge wasn't at all about Yellen...

     

    It appears the traders are now "selling on the news" as the futures suggest a weak opening.. & that's not unusual

     

    Some econ reports coming in weak , due to the weather effects and i suspect we will see more on that front for a while.. & that might suggest selling pressure in the days/weeks ahead...

     

    However earnings are not disappointing... and THAT trumps a lot of "negativity" that may be in the air ...

     

    ZIRP - possibly ending next year ? --- so many changes can take place between now & then that I don't fret over it...

     

    Besides I cant change it :)
    13 Feb, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Retails been so soft -- but there were highlights. Is it time to get into this sector?
    .
    .
    From SA breaking news:
    Picking out winners in a soft retail sales report
    Despite a sluggish reading on retail sales in the U.S. for January, a couple of categories showed some strength.
    Building materials and garden equipment sales rose 3.7% Y/Y and 1.4% M/M in what could be a good trend for Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW).
    Grocery stores (KR, SVU, SWY, DEG, IMKTA) outperformed as well, up 4% Y/Y and 0.4% M/M.
    13 Feb, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    As always, earnings drive the market. There was a disappointing retail number released today, retail sales slid 0.4 lower in Jan. from Dec. It's not all about the weather, but it must be factoring in a little

     

    http://cnb.cx/1dnw3lw

     

    As the weather warms up, so should sales. People are buried in snow on the east coast, it will take awhile to shovel out. Snowflakes are huge…we have over half a foot already.

     

    We might have a second wave of bad news, when this quarter we are in gets reported starting in April. So keep some dry powder for any bargains out there in the spring.

     

    I've been watching Whole Foods (WFM) for awhile. Just thought it was over valued, the PE ratio was just too high for me to consider buying it. Vindication today, as (WFM) is down a lot. I don't shop there, another reason I haven't bought their story. If you believe in (WFM) this downturn could be an entry point.

     

    With days like today, it's important to go into your position slowly. Add on dips over time so that your average cost is low. Blue ribbon stocks will give you blue ribbon returns, over time.

     

    I sold out of (AMBA) & (GALE) recently. Glad I did. If I was not watching the market every day, I would have lost a significant amount of money. Word to the wary….SA authors can pump a stock, and they can dump a stock. Watch out.

     

    Normally, I don't invest in companies that aren't 50 years old - or more. Learned another lesson to stick with the tried & true.
    13 Feb, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    In addition to some of the "woes" of the retail sector lately , we now have to add "weather " to the mix..

     

    I'm working on a market update that mentions the effects that I see this having on the market... more on that later......

     

    There may be bargains presented to us in this sector , its now a matter of which companies may get unduly punished because of one or two bad reports... while their underlying fundamentals are in tact ..

     

    :)
    13 Feb, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Everyone - what are you thinking of buying on sale today?
    13 Feb, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    Today there are some stocks getting hit hard. Besides (WFM), (BGS) B&G Foods is down. (BGS) pays a 4.66% dividend, and increased the dividend yesterday. (MAT) is still hammered, also pays a nice dividend 4.13%. (MAT) up a bit today, I say it's a stock worth buying here. Tobacco stocks…(LO) & (MO) both are down recently, & they both pay over 4% too. These stocks are at recent lows, are all solid companies & pay you to hold them. Good basis for your portfolio with some upside potential.

     

    Today is a good day to pick up some bargains, add to your existing positions or start new ones. Go slow, so you have some $ for next week/months to come. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but every month I have this "problem." What to do with the dividend $ coming in? This year, there have been some market pullbacks that offer opportunities.

     

    My cash stash has grown recently with the sale of a few stocks, (AMBA) (GALE) (GMCR) and (GLUU). Thankful that ringing the register on those stocks brought in some gains. Whew!

     

    Learning that the tortoise wins the race, not the hare. Especially in the stock market.
    13 Feb, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Why is (MU) selling off today?
    13 Feb, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    simple rotation out of a stock that recently hit a new high and some minor profit taking..

     

    down .16 ... is a drop in the bucket here... :)

     

    if it gets to 23.50 - 24 area ,, add more..
    13 Feb, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fear
    Oh, that makes sense. It was on a tear up.
    13 Feb, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Is anyone not buried under snow? I can't get my front door open, lol.
    13 Feb, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    I haven't gone thru this report , but It comes recommended for those interested in research on the EM's

     

    from credit Suisse..

     

    http://bit.ly/1dojJRQ
    13 Feb, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie's PMed me that he's noticed a head and shoulders formed on the 3 months DOW, while nothing's happened in the last 3 months to warrant it.
    .
    Any thoughts? Are the charts saying anything important?
    .
    .
    ----
    Macro
    (IWM) led today with a whopping 1.3% compared to S&P. Is it telling you anything different than before?
    13 Feb, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Yeah. Its annoying and confusing. I have no idea why, after 7 straight up days on the SPX, so in an overbought position, we get terrible retail sales, Europe and Asia weak, open down, and explode higher. All without key sectors like consumer discretionary, financials, transports. The only answer I have, is once again mr market believes -- weak data = continued QE! We seriously need to get off this drug. For those who disagree -- and see an accelerating economy -- why the strength in treasury bonds? Gold? Why the weakness in transports?
    13 Feb, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    transports just hit a new all time high on Jan 23, its feb 12th ., they dipped a bit and it may take time to consolidate, So i wouldn't classify that as "weakness" ....

     

    Overbought , i disagree we are just now "entering " into" a somewhat overbought condition. Look where we are now as compared to last week's oversold conditions .... Basically neutral

     

    http://bit.ly/NHAqyi

     

    QE - I won't go there with you or anybody that believes QE is responsible for everything.. Suffice to say we differ on that topic..

     

    financials have had A huge run last year , they are merely taking a breather.. and would agree they will need to power higher to take the market up another leg here .. They may be about ready to do that ..

     

    consumer discretionary has been weak , i'll give u that , don't lose sight of sector rotation during these types of dips . money has found tech and that has been on fire ... when that starts to leave it may find financials or consumer stocks.. the few retailers I bought cheap look to have bottomed and are headed north ..

     

    look at money that went into utilities lately ,

     

    Gold is simply a bounce from a total wipeout last year ... can someone give me a "fundamental" that i can use to set a price on where gold should be other than emotion ??

     

    Those folks going back into bonds will get taken to the woodshed when rates eventually rise ....

     

    I have suggested all during this run , if one wants to look at the fed and blame them for "their' mistakes , so be it..

     

    There is plenty of positive "change" around and that is what Mr.Market is marching to ..

     

    Finally if u read your first few words about annoying & confusing then U describe why u feel the market HAD to go down but powered higher today , it should reveal the underlying strength there.. and I'll throw in that QE has been cut now by 25% ....

     

    It takes two opinions to make a market ,, those are mine and believe they are as valid as your thoughts..

     

    All of my comments come in the context of a longer term picture , not the next week ....

     

    and finally my views on the "negative bias" that is abundant in the investment world today that has kept the rally going ..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 Feb, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @Fear

     

    I don't think Macro is arguing that QE is running the show. I think you may be assuming that from so many who do think that.

     

    I agree Macro that QE needs to stop. Whether it's had an effect on the economy or not... I agree it's now a head-game that's messing with the Market's ability to see the recovery & support it no matter how slow or fast it goes.

     

    It is annoying and confusing, when the volatility doesn't seem to line up sensibly each day. I take it that from your experience, this rally isn't following in the usual way. Upside down on the sectors that tend to lead when the mood is upbeat.

     

    I find it hard to believe this market things QE will continue. Though Yellen did say she'd increase if need be (took me by surprise.) Instead though, I wondered if it's simply the sense of "missing out on the market" that's drawing in money again, now that the FED meeting is over & debit ceiling is extended.
    13 Feb, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Goldman just cut their GDP forecast, I suppose that is irrelevant too. Why is the price action in stocks automatically " right" and that in treasury bonds dismissed as " wrong" other than a personal bias?

     

    My view is -- today's stock buyers will get taken to the "woodshed" -- particularly the higher PE names -- as macro growth disappoints.
    13 Feb, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    From your comments -- I'd almost expect to see that the misguided souls buying treasuries are as bad as gold bugs! What a environment. 100 PE (or more ) stocks are prudent and treasuries are reckless. Mania.
    13 Feb, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    It is insane in my view... that my retired mom can't buy bonds without more risk than stocks in many ways. I should be in stocks... but I'd like to stop "living and dying" by the words of the Fed.

     

    What's the 100 PE? Sorry for my ignorance - I haven't even seen the CAPE listed as that high right now?
    13 Feb, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Btw -- transports didn't "dip" they got creamed, and for valid (economic) reasons. In my mind, the quality of the rally is deteriorating.

     

    QE has little effect on the real economy -- but only an idiot would deny the effect it has had on market speculation. It has been a stated clear goal of the fed to drive asset prices higher, with a hoped for trickle down effect.

     

    Now they want out as not to expand their balance sheet further. The market doesnt believe they are serious about tapering, that's the conclusion I draw.
    13 Feb, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    100 PE -- big pockets of the market that are leading the advance. Certain Nasdaq and russel 2000 sectors. Social media, internet, biotech.
    13 Feb, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ Tack - I know your views tend to be a little different than Fear & Macro's on this. Do you have any thoughts to add?

     

    @Macro
    Is volume also doing anything, telling you anything?
    13 Feb, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11038) | Send Message
     
    MACRO

     

    I am in agreement with you. So having that said how do you play this market if your a long term buyer. Buy on the dips, or go to cash.

     

    Many don't have your experience to day trade..

     

    Thanks!
    13 Feb, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    It's far weaker on the rally, heavier on selloffs, as it has been for some time. This is spun as a good thing as there is "mountains of cash" on the sidelines. What a crock.
    13 Feb, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    That would heavily depend on your view. I see deflation trying to get a foothold, so yield assets are attractive (aka Tack) preferred, mortgage reits, utilities. Slow growth stuff. That is starting to lead. Shorting is not for your typical investor and I don't advocate it.
    13 Feb, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Macro
    then in your view i'm an idiot I'll accept that .. :)

     

    You can draw any conclusion you wish, i tried my best to counter your view as you asked in your first comment with my opinion not trying to start a argument.

     

    However it wasn;t what u wanted to hear .. i' m sorry ,

     

    you asked "for those who disagree" to answer - i Did & thats what i believe ...

     

    therefore i won't pursue your views, and go my merry way in believing what has worked for me over time,,,

     

    Enjoy !!
    13 Feb, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11038) | Send Message
     
    MACRO

     

    BDC'S are being discussed on my blog. If you care to drop in and leave a comment I would appreciate it..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thanks !
    13 Feb, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    Don't know them, sorry.
    13 Feb, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    IMO when someone tries to put the day to day market gyrations under a microscope and make sense of it they continually fail..

     

    ask and daytrader ,, the market is counterintuitive at times..

     

    why did retail go up today after that report ? many say it doesn't make sense , the GDP forecast was cut by Goldman , the market surely HAS to fall today -- that's the lament of someone who is short and wants the market to go down..
    Who didn't realize the GDP forecast was going to come in lower than earlier forecast based on one of the worst winters this country has seen... IT was inevitable GDP forecasts would be cut. It's not an excuse its the reality of the present situation...

     

    some retailers rallied today on that news because "that" news is history and the market may now see a potential "change' for the positive.... will the "good" retailers who have produced over time be ok when we get back to a better environment than a storm every other day ? I say they have a good chance of that happening , those that believe the economy is crap and continue to believe that wont agree.. What can i say ??

     

    the first quarter is half way gone the market knows that , its the back half of the year the market is looking at TODAY ...
    what lies ahead , wil there be positive "change" ? that;s all the market cares about..
    if somone wants to look at the market differently - so be it , many have tried to make 'sense' based on "their" logic and have failed..
    the thoughts i try to express have come from a lot of experience ........ and the views i embrace and impart now are the ones that have worked over time..
    one can use it or dismiss it .. I'll stand by my thoughts and results
    :)
    13 Feb, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4058) | Send Message
     
    FG, I have no issue with your analysis, style or approach, btw.

     

    My question is, for those valid points you raise that the market is expecting much better data points with better weather and rallied accordingly -- that's fine. It's not the rally but the quality of the rally I had issue with today.

     

    So -- I'll ask again -- why the continued strength in treasuries? Yen? All they all naive buyers? History would say otherwise for those kind of assets. I'd like your analysis.

     

    Btw, I am having a great year. Some great long trades, short side I'm holding my own.
    13 Feb, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Macro,

     

    if i had all of those answers i truly would have my own island,, :)

     

    I can't say why folks are buying treasuries now with any certainty,
    is there a sense of "fear" and flight to that safety net ? are they naive ? I can't say... same with gold ---is there less confidence in the recovery now ? maybe so .... we are in a transiition period as far as QE - maybe the markets are just trying to re-price & evaluate risk, etc.

     

    I dont get caught up in trying to over analyze any single data point in the short term

     

    Please remember my focus is on the long term , & yes u bring valid points as to "why" these things are happening today ..
    My view -----that could change tomorrow.. an example

     

    Look at those investors shed bonds in the last part of '13 as we then saw money flow into stock funds , only to get a quick haircut early in '14 . now folks are wandering back to the same bonds they just dumped , my guess is that they will be met with lower prices down the road when rates rise..

     

    Investors are a fickle bunch in the "short term" and trying to figure out what hedge funds and money managers are doing with the yen today, doesn't affect my LT view , because all of that can change on a dime ..

     

    so does one change a macro view because of a short term data point or report,, ? that isn't my approach...

     

    when it becomes a 'trend" -----then it bears watching..

     

    as for the quality of the latest rally , i say that u have some valid points,, i have also spotted divergences that give me pause..
    as u know i stated that i am expecting a decent correction at some point.. it may be that we fail at the attempt to break those old highs and that would provide a spark to go lower..
    conversely if we do continue to rally and break the old highs then a lot of the "negatives" ----technically speaking are dismissed..
    who knows,, the quality issue u note gets worse from here OR it can get resolved by other groups providing leadership..
    
    13 Feb, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Many are "seeing" the "head & shoulders " pattern develop in the S & P

     

    as of the moment it,s like an ink blot , all can see different things and interpret them differently form the same picture..

     

    IF , someone wants to believe its there , so be it , However as the S & p has now broken back above the 50 day MA with authority that vision is being wiped out ..

     

    I can't predict which way we go , but IF we challenge the old high of 1848 and take that out ,, any bear argument that has been made recently about weakness , volume, or whatever is dead. 
    13 Feb, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    Well...I didn't want to sound like a quack doctor and argue a case for the bear, only as a caution. >_<

     

    Yes, if we challenge the old high then yes, you are absolutely right. I would even say that if the market doesn't drop over a hundred points tomorrow would make your case too. XD

     

    If it does, and I am only guessing here because the market went up gradually today (either everyone is buying gradually or a few programs are buying slowly or neither of those cases, I am only guessing) then we are in trouble, maybe. O_o

     

    Now...I think I smell a roasting somewhere... AHHH!
    13 Feb, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,,

     

    U r not a quack dr ,, :) apparently u r new to investing as your moniker suggests.. no problem with that .... we all were new to this game at one point :)

     

    I have heard "many" say that they see a head and shoulders pattern forming -- so u aren't alone....

     

    & i will add that if we do challenge the old highs and start to 'fail" , then we just might see that pattern work out and head back down..

     

    to test the new low set around the S & P 1737 area, until that is broken we are in a trading range until shown otherwise .
    here's my latest purchase - an intermediate holding for me , & one that i believe is worth a look ....
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Best of Luck
    13 Feb, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Many had opinions that the eurozone would take the global economy down,,

     

    It doesn't appear that way.. and maybe it provides yet another "reason" for the recent underlying strength on our market

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1fmb4Mx
    14 Feb, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    From Bespoke Group,

     

    The current DJIA "overbought /oversold" indicator shown for each component ..

     

    http://bit.ly/1fmdDOy
    14 Feb, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • AIWIMMF
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    (WTW) looks interesting after this huge drop, any thoughts?
    14 Feb, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Aiw,

     

    i pulled up a LT chart , and it looks like the next support level is in the mid teens ,,

     

    im not familiar with the fundamentals but from the chart my guess is they aren't that good and probably deteriorating since this is the third big "Gap down" . the other two were aug & oct

     

    i often look at situations where the "fear" factor is in play and the shares are being dumped , but this one isn't for me.. :)
    14 Feb, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    Today's purchases (VALE), (PEP), (COH)

     

    Yesterday (BGS) (MAT)

     

    Sold (NDLS) yesterday

     

    Banked over $10,000 in profits after selling (GALE) (AMBA) (GMCR) (NDLS)

     

    Short term, we will have more opportunities when the market pulls back. Long term….market will be fine. Buy great companies for value prices.

     

    (AFL) is still priced low. (PEP) is at a good entry point. (VALE) should do well this year.

     

    (WTW) I would stay away from.
    14 Feb, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    nice profits on those!!

     

    a little spark of life in retail as (BBBY) and your (COH) seemed to have turned and are inexpensive , I wouldn't chase (BBBY) , but its a buy on weakness.

     

    I added more of (FCX) recently, its my play in the mining sector.. pays a nice div. and last year they awarded a special div. in addition to the regular payout ...
    14 Feb, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    FG do you by chance follow GNC or happen to see it fall drastically near closing (-14%) today. I briefly looked over their financials and all I could fine is that their earnings came in 0.02 under and their quarterly revenue was down. However, it still beat the low end of the range by a 0.01. They are also increasing the quarterly dividend this quarter. Is there another reason that I'm not aware of for the big drop?
    14 Feb, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    Cwinn
    CWINN,

     

    no i dont follow (GNC)
    I suspect its the forward looking guidance >>

     

    I found this on one of the services i get :

     

    WHAT'S NOTABLE: The company forecast fiscal 2014 profit of $3.18-$3.25, far below consensus of $3.46. GNC expects a high single digit increase in consolidated revenue for 2014, compared to consensus of $2.9B. In issuing its guidance, the company noted it saw a “very challenging” retail environment in January and February. ANALYST REACTION: This morning, analyst commentary was mixed. Wells Fargo and Jefferies lowered their respective price targets on the shares following the company's weaker than expected Q4 results and outlook. Conversely, JP Morgan said the pullback in the shares represented a buying opportunity. Though JP Morgan lowered its price target for shares to $58 from $62, the firm kept an Overweight rating on GNC. Goldman downgraded the shares to Neutral and cut its price target to $54.
    14 Feb, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    F&G, (FCX) is another good one. I'll have to see if it's time to start a position. Looks like we may have turned a corner with the miners. Read somewhere that if commodities, especially iron ore, copper, etc. start to go up, that's good news as it will mean the world's economy is growing again.

     

    Years ago, I owned both (FCX) and (VALE). Sold out when they started to go down…but made some good $ on both.
    14 Feb, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to start watching (GNC).

     

    Thanks for the additional info FG.
    14 Feb, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    BSF...FWIW I'm definitely bullish on the economy. I know a lot of the time the street and the market don't jive. See way to many good things going on. (FCX) will go on a watch list. It's not something I'm typically looking at.
    14 Feb, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    I have a question for those of you that own (PSEC). In a non retirement account, the dividends will be taxed at your highest tax rate? What about (PTY) dividends, will they be taxed at 15% ?

     

    I bought them both in my non retirement account. Now I have rethink what effect they will have on my taxes. Last several years, income was very low so it didn't matter. This year may be different.

     

    Thanks if anyone can help!
    14 Feb, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    I own PSEC and they show up in my taxable account as ordinary dividends. According to TD Ameritrade ordinary dividends are paid out of earnings and profits and are ordinary income to you. This means they are not capital gains. Ordinary dividends will be shown in box 1a of the Form 1099-DIV you receive.
    14 Feb, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1671) | Send Message
     
    thanks CWinn, that's good news :)
    14 Feb, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF
    This site goes through stock dividend tax treatment:
    http://bit.ly/130KVzp

     

    As CWinn described, it looks like BDC's are ordinary income, so regular tax rate. They recommend holding them in retirement accounts.

     

    While looking for that link, this SA Philip Mause article caught my attention on some recent history of BDC's: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Congrats on your gains!
    14 Feb, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It's nice to see all these ideas discussed while I wasn't here. My computer went out of commission... (grrr)

     

    AIWIMMF - That almost 30% drop in Weight Watcher's caught my attention too. Usually drops are up to 10-12% so I figured the new "recommended values" by brokerages, probably were somewhat accurate & reflected fundamentals. I didn't check directly, but the chart didn't look promising either. I'd probably wait till it showed solid signs of recovery before looking more.

     

    I haven't looked into Office Depot, but my computer events reminded me - they bought Office Max and got a new CEO... maybe some potential there? They're recently sprung a bunch of new ads that have a good feel.

     

    My (TGT) isn't popping up yet... I was in (WMT) and why does anyone shop there? It's crowded but feels like a subway station. (TGT) had shoppers and parking lot was as full as I've ever seen. It's so much more upscale, with very similar prices.
    14 Feb, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3748) | Send Message
     
    They locate the WalMarts more conveniently to the peons (like me). Plus, they have more stores.

     

    I liked them equally, I would say, when we had both as an option. Disagree on prices, though - Target was higher priced on just about everything.
    14 Feb, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5084) | Send Message
     
    MY thoughts on earnings and the market --

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Feb, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Time for a new chapter #5:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    @Fear - thanks for the great charts & links. Please post them on the new chapter too :).
    15 Feb, 10:49 AM Reply Like
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