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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5 212 comments
    Feb 15, 2014 10:47 AM

    I've set up this blog ...as community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!!

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #5. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog.

    .

    Links

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great!:
    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (212)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good morning!
    I'm going to start digging into my research today. Do you have a favorite way or site used to screen for stocks, cef and etfs? What are your starting points for minimum criteria?
    15 Feb, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    FWIW,

     

    Mr. Einhorn likes a recently discussed stock here on this blog (MU)

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Feb, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My brokerage sent a news alert that Greenlight Capital Hedge fund has bought into (MU). Also they sold (CVX), which I also own.
    .
    Are there any sources anyone likes for news alerts on their holdings? SA has a nice service. My broker's (Scottrade) were mostly oneliners without content, I had to sort through.
    15 Feb, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (MU)'s up about 3% for me. I put a stop loss with limit on it at a little more than I bought for, so I won't take a loss. (It's a 6-9 month position, without dividend yield.)
    15 Feb, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Typically , these transactions are filed on what's called a 13F form and its always "after the fact" . so the news is never "timely"

     

    Its nice to know & talk about , but i don't make decisions one way or another based on it..

     

    I did see an upgrade on (CVX) from an analyst at Raymond James to strong buy last week, There again its nice to know , but doesn't alter my stance on a company either way ..
    15 Feb, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I didn't realize the delay from event to news alerts was that big. And therefore not useful. I thought release by alerts might lead to sell offs or buys after hours. However, if it's already known by commercial investors (brokerages, hedge funds)... it's long since been factored in.
    .
    Hum, wonder if something like that was why that sell off of (MU) for a while the other day that it's since gone up from?
    .
    Where's a 13F form to be found for a company?
    .
    While I don't consider recommendations useful for decision making... they do seem to move the market prices sometimes. Maybe there's a way to take advantage of that?
    15 Feb, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Usually the 13 f filing can be found on their investment website .

     

    if u go back to the einhorn article, they posted a link to his in that comment...

     

    They surely do move the market when they are buying or selling ,but its always disclosed much later..
    15 Feb, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • crademan
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    For research, I like Morningstar http://bit.ly/tbObny, Vanguard http://bit.ly/1b6VaJQ, Lazy Portfolios http://on.mktw.net/1b6..., and the Boggleheads http://bit.ly/1b6V8BS, http://bit.ly/TuDLMm
    15 Feb, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • dorbeckistane
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, useful links
    16 Feb, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks crademan!
    15 Feb, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Waiting for a "recovery" on (WTW) thats crazy its either cheap or it isn't if its 20% more expensive in 2 months it becomes a better buy?

     

    The real interesting question is how do you value a company earning you 20% on your money, but having a large negative equity.

     

    What discount do they deserve for having a debt burden which an operational mis step could quickly lead to a bankruptcy.

     

    How is management? Has the weight loss landscape changed? What portion of the decline in membership is related to weather and what to operational problems?

     

    These are the real questions, saying the chart looks "bad" and wait for it to "firm up" ....

     

    What are your thoughts behind (TGT)? looks like a slow growth low margin business, with no pricing power, this is like buying (WMT) what can you expect your rate of return at these prices to be 7% at what potential risk are you earning the 7%?
    16 Feb, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    I would answer that the downside risk on either (TGT) or (WMT) is low.

     

    I don't know (WTW) very well... I wonder how much of an impact the internet will have / has had on their business.... It's easy enough to look up healthy eating and exercise programs on Google. Lots of (free) support groups available, too.
    16 Feb, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Of course downside risk is low, my point was does it make sense given the limited upside?

     

    Would you own a 30 year treasury?

     

    I think the online issue is important...
    16 Feb, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ah, Yair, you don't like my approach :).

     

    I was referring to Stan Weinstein's idea that stocks go through stages. So this can be in a trading range or down turn for a while... then break up a little to the upside. That's the point in time, that I'd put in time to look at the fundamentals to see if it's interesting. It's not waiting till it's 20% up, but till it shows signs of life in the chart. Then there's usually a slight pullback, that makes a good time to buy.

     

    Krustyman who posts here sometimes and often has great timing suggested one of his favorite book's is Stan Weinstein's "secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets". There were lots of copies in my local library still getting checked out... and I found the ideas very solid & interesting on basic technical analysis. (I just bought a copy so i can highlight it myself - it should be here about 3 snow storms from now...)

     

    All those fundamental questions you asked matter & are excellent... I made a -quick- decision that on that heavy a drop, there probably was a good reason, and wasn't my priority to put time into researching.

     

    You're much more into FA than using any TA?

     

    ---

     

    @JBT - good point that internet does a lot that WW's used to bring to the table. As an occasional dieter, WWs has one of the most solid, healthiest, best lasting-effect programs out there. I tried NutraSystems once, and within a week was begging for my money back. Food inedible and chemical mess. Diet made no sense and so unhealthy. I don't pay anyone though. I just eat less for a while, exercise more - works every time. My mom joins WW's every time - that works best for her. No substitute for actual people in person!

     

    ----

     

    (TGT) was Fear & Greed's idea. They pay 3-4% dividends. Are a dividend aristocracy. At the time before the semi-correction, they were down on a temporary problem so looked like a good entry point. It's a good slow long term hold. I bought only a small amount, because they aren't a go-go growth even from what increase I expected... just a nice large cap to hold long term. Some investors here are looking for dividends & low risk... others have longer horizon and want more pure growth. What 7% are you referring to?
    16 Feb, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Would I own a 30-year treasury bond? Sure - if you buy it for me. ;) The only bond I've ever owned was a savings bond. Much like (WTW), I don't understand bonds all that well, 'cause they aint my thing. Don't you lock in to a certain rate when you purchase them? They do not seem remotely like a DGI stock (i.e. Walmart, Target, etc.) to me. Kind of apples/oranges comparison on first glance, to me.

     

    Of course, as with everything I talk about on SA, I freely admit I may be 100% wrong.
    16 Feb, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair
    What tickles your fancy at the moment stock-wise? Or if nothing's on the radar -- what's your favorite way to screen?

     

    I bought (TGT) at 20% down from it's top. My expectations are within 2 years, maybe less it's current worries will be faded. So it will be up to it's "norm", so 10% or more. Downside risk was low, and 3-4% is better than that same money's been getting in the bank.

     

    Obviously (TGT) is too limited growth for your needs. Makes sense, with your very long horizon. For BSF & others looking for a dividend portfolio with low risk ... it's a great buy. For me, it was an experiment (I have a shorter timeline than you). I'm still in red on it from the correction... so I'll wait a while for it to come back up, to decide whether it fits in my basket. I still do mostly small-caps...

     

    Oh JBT, I think you commented... by me there's 3 (TGT)'s in good locations, and one further out (WMT). Target used to be higher priced, but last bunch of trips, it's the same as Walmart. Except less pure junk mixed in.

     

    ---

     

    On 30-year bonds, give me a high enough rate!! I'm hesitating on anything-rate connected right now. I think in a month or two or three the "market" will suddenly wake up and start rambling about the end of ZIRP in 2015... and down will come everything-rate-related basket and all.

     

    Backl to my research... nothing sizzling to report yet :)... I'll keep looking.
    16 Feb, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (749) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    I'd be happy if fixed-income stuff comes tumbling down. More preferreds and etd to pick up!
    16 Feb, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT
    You're right on what bonds are. Pretty straight forward. You're lending your money at a fixed rate to municipalities or corporations. Bonds are risk rated AAA, AA down to "you weren't really expecting any money back, were you?" They can be "callable." If the public interest rate goes lower, they can pay back your principle and end the bond. Interest can be paid regularly, or kept with it in a zero coupon bond. Some are for municipalities like fed or state government, and will be tax free. You used to buy bonds from your broker, but I'm not sure whereelse you get them these days.

     

    To sell instead of waiting till maturity, you'd go to the secondary market. There it will sell at face value or discount or premium to face value depending on factors like it's rate vs. current interest rates, & it's risk rating.

     

    Thing is, people think of bond funds as being as low risk as bonds. But bond funds are like the secondary market. They're usually still more stable than stocks... but since the QE dance, they've been more volatile than their norm.

     

    You may know all this already & were being modest :) , but what the hay. I posted it.
    16 Feb, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I am bond ignorant, as originally proclaimed. :) So, locked yield, with a chance of capital gains. I prefer my stocks - increasing yield, with a chance of capital gains.
    16 Feb, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT
    There's no chance of capital gains with bonds. It's a lot like a CD, but there's a secondary market & no pre-agreed exit penalty. In studies, equities give better return over long time periods, but with more volatility and risk

     

    Then again Southerngent would probably talk about the 1980s and bond bull market time periods that beat out stocks :). But I don't know any of those details.
    16 Feb, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Then I still have no understanding of bonds. If you can sell on a secondary market for a premium to purchase price, how does that not equate to a capital gain?
    16 Feb, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT
    You're right that there's a gain.

     

    Selling at a premium takes relative future value into account. You had a certain current & future value. So the premium is set so you don't gain, just break even to include that future value. If you tried to replace the bond, with the same future value but current rates, you'd wind up even. So if you have $100 bond at 7%. Rates go to 5%, you'd sell at a premium that included the $100, and the 3% interest you'll no longer be getting.

     

    It's not like stocks purely going up in value (to reflect corporate increased profits.) where there is real underlying value gain, i.e. capital gain.

     

    I've never heard a bond premium called a capital gain. I would guess this is why.

     

    Still a bond premium could be set for other reasons such as gov'ts defaulting then getting covered by Fed so their bond rating improves, and premium improves... so it's a real gain in value of your bond holding.

     

    Clear as mud yet?
    16 Feb, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    So, to put it in simple terms... Bonds have a set rate, yet may be able to be sold for a profit to purchase price. (Some) stocks have a rising rate, and may be able to be sold for a profit to purchase price.

     

    Same conclusion - I'll stick with my stocks that have a rising yield, and also have the potential to rise in price above that which I initially paid. I can live with the potential of selling at a discount to purchase price. :)
    16 Feb, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT
    The point of bonds is less risk, & with it comes less potential. So the point is, held to maturity you can't lose principle unless they default. They aren't for growth, just fixed-income. So yep, you're conclusion makes sense!!

     

    If you're going to buy a bond with hopes of selling for profit to purchase price... might as well buy a bond fund. But then it's no longer a bond, it's an equity specializing in bonds.

     

    So based on your salient conclusion...what stocks have rising yield and potential to rise in prices these days in your view?
    16 Feb, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm.... (MO), (PM), (RTN), (KO), (PG), (CL)... Just off the top of my head. I would classify all of those as having bond-like risk. They all increase their yield regularly, too.

     

    I have nothing against bonds... I have just always thought of them as sorta like a bank CD.

     

    We sold all of our son's savings bonds (gasp!) to invest in stocks. He has done well so far.
    16 Feb, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Yair, L,

     

    (TGT) may not represent the growth some are looking for in the market today.

     

    Maintaining a diversified portfolio requires a mixture of growth , income,, etc.

     

    for some (TGT) can represent a "core " holding as they have paid dividends for 46 years and their 10 year Div growth rate is 19.8% . The compounding effect of those dividends as they grow will build wealth over time.. At the current level one is not buying at an inflated price.

     

    can the stock drift lower, sure, but taking the LT view I am looking at what it will it be worth 3, 5, 10 yrs from now with the div compounding thrown in....

     

    Just my thoughts , on what i believe is a good company with a "broken" stock.. good companies have a better chance of coming back to their "better" days....

     

    :)
    17 Feb, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    JBT,
    if you are interested ------ a couple of links on "bonds"

     

    http://bit.ly/1oHpwGu

     

    http://bit.ly/1oHpuOZ
    17 Feb, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, F&G. Looks like I need to accumulate more cash before I ever seriously consider investing in individual bonds. In the meantime, I will educate myself a little in bond funds, and see if they are a potential fit for me.
    17 Feb, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Do you think any of those DGIs are priced well at this time?

     

    I'm finding lots I like...but often looks like high end of their range to me.

     

    Bonds are a lot like a bank CD. So does your son decide what to buy (I have no idea how old he is)?
    17 Feb, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    Thanks for your thoughts on (WTW)s and entry point. I tend to miss the bottoms a lot. So gives ideas for me to think about.

     

    Do you have any stocks or methods you're feeling very positive about at the moment?
    17 Feb, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    I think they are all priced in what I consider the 'buy range' right now.

     

    The kid (John Jr. - :)) is 14. Hard age to get him to listen and learn (at least about investing). He gets his stocks @ 18 to do with as he pleases (car, party, college - it will be his choice, but I hope the preaching I've done up 'til then sinks in).

     

    I chose the stocks. He holds (KO), (T), (OHI), (MAC) and (NEE).

     

    I think once he starts working he'll learn the importance of money at an accelerated rate. Once he has a job, the mom & dad gravy train will come to a screeching halt. ;)
    17 Feb, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • nutjob
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    Likewise. I've not seen an easy way for the small investor to own corporate bonds outside of mutual funds.
    18 Feb, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » nutjob
    Sure you can. Most brokerages offer corporate bonds for sale, many in $100 increments. A bond fund doesn't have the same "safe" investing properties as a bond itself.
    From scottrade: http://bit.ly/1oM83Nm
    From a lobbying group for bonds but lots of info: http://bit.ly/tMHI9t

     

    Personally I'm avoiding straight bonds right now, with rates going up, maybe next year. The floating rate ETFs & CEF suggestions by Tack & User7 seem better to me in this environment.
    18 Feb, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    My point has nothing to do with growth, value, all those things are part of the same formula which determines truly what a business is worth, sadly to do that you need to know the future...

     

    What I can know is that since 2000 they have had approximately a 6-7% return including dividends, since 2005-2006 its slightly lower. I have no reason to think the future of (TGT) is rosier than it was 13 years ago or 8 years ago, for me this is not enough to justify a purchase, but obviously every investor has different needs from there portfolio, still if all you can expect from this company is a 7-8% ROR why not just buy an S&P index, it has lower risk and slightly higher return.
    18 Feb, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH...

     

    I have never met a technical trader with a large bank account, if I meet one which can show me solid 15-20% returns year in and year out look the top fundamental folks I'll listen to every single thing that comes out of there mouth, until then I will completely disregard it.

     

    About the 7% i was talking about the past 13 years for (TGT), before that it was an interesting growth company with a bright future. Today it is a large company, in a very difficult low margin industry, I agree it is wonderfully run and has a strong brand...
    18 Feb, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I've listed my positions but here they are again

     

    Postions they are of different size, (LULU) after the drop was a steal

     

    (EZPW) (CEO) ( (AKS) (X) cut both by 2/3s after the recent run up) (AKO.A) (KOF) (LULU) (ISRG) (CNCO) (OTCPK:AEBZY) ((PSX) (MGM) selling calls against the positions currently) (IAT) (HES) (HAFC) (FCA)

     

    I am selling LEAP puts against (FXI) using the premium to add a little leverage to the portfolio.

     

    I am selling puts against (RT)

     

    I own (ACI) bonds yielding 12% and 2016 LEAP calls, against those positions I sell 1-3 month out puts and calls.

     

    The only stock I'm currently considering is (WTW) I'm having trouble valuing it though.
    18 Feb, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH...

     

    There is of course capital gains in bonds.

     

    If I buy a bond of a distressed company yielding 12% selling at 50 now the company has reshaped itself and the yield drops to 6% and its trading at 100, well I made a large capital gain.

     

    Second even if I buy a bond at par "100" but its risk profile goes down and maybe interest rates go lower it can trade at "130" for example and thats a capital gain.
    18 Feb, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH
    Would you say you had a good experience with WW's? Do you think they have a good "name" among dieters?
    18 Feb, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair
    You've got good points. With (TGT) the idea is that they sold off on fear that doesn't significantly effect fundamentals, and will bounce back. So the gain is expected to be much more than the 6-7% growth.

     

    I've been in small cap rather than DGI for years. The slow growth is a limit -- but it's also a less risky stock in theory. So for those approaching retirement, looking for dividends from their stock holdings, not growth, it's a good fit.

     

    Personally, I got my head spun around mid-last year from personal events (I can tell you in PM). I needed to start buying into things for long term. So for me, it was the right thing at the right time. But the points you make are excellent fundamental observations, and why I'm not sure how long I'll hold it.

     

    On TA, my thought is that it can add value along with solid FA. I don't know anyone who does only TA to see how they do. But I see a long of respected investors, saying they use TA to add to their process.

     

    1) Some of it makes direct sense. If there was a prior high point that people likely bought at, there will logically be resistance when getting back to that point as people sell when they "get even" and can "get out." I don't know TA very well, but Weinstein's idea of stages, and therefore not just buying falling knives, but waiting till they show signs of being ready to recover... makes good sense to me. According to this, I bought (TGT) too soon... and should have waited till the problems seemed to be waning.

     

    2) Some of it is now self-fulfilling prophecy and worth knowing, only to know what's going to drive other investors or the machine algorithms. If they use moving averages as their tripping point, that's good to know. On days where I've paid attention, sometimes you can see the big swings up and down are triggered right on those TA points.
    18 Feb, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Weight Watcher's? It's been many years since I did anything with them. They have a nice online setup from what I hear. My mom uses their program because it stabilizes her blood sugar. It's a very balanced, healthy program. More so than any of the others. Especially since from the start you're eating your own real food, so you're learning how to eat well.

     

    One of the cooler things was back when fiber was a buzz-word and the food pyramid was being changed to include less meat and more grains... and put sugars as "more empty" foods... WW's changed their program to reflect all that. So again, their diet was adjusted to be very healthy.

     

    What I can't answer is how much people like it and use it. My mom was never really overweight and now maintains easily. It's certainly a household name. Maybe some googling for meeting locations would answer to that? They also sell grocery prepared foods. How is that end of their business doing? If internet is effecting them, it's not starting with this year when the stock showed several declines. That's about something else.
    18 Feb, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • nutjob
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    Again, I have not seen a corporate bond in denominations under $1,000, although the way they are quoted makes it appear that way.

     

    When you see a quote of 107 on a bond it means it is a $1,000 bond selling for $1,070.
    19 Feb, 04:34 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NJ

     

    Yesterday I put in the quantity wanted and it filled in for $100 purchase & I didn't then push the buy button. Looking more closely again, I think you're right that about $1000 is the min for a corporate bond & there aren't many of those.

     

    If you have less than $1000 to put into bonds, then a CD used to be similar (until ZIRP & low rates.) ZIRP and QE might have gotten us out of a big depression, but by now it's really hurting investor safer options...

     

    Have you tried calling a brokerage to ask what they offer?

     

    I would suspect $500 or $1000 would be the absolute min on corporate, since even 20 years ago, mins were often $3000.
    19 Feb, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » User7
    As I'm looking at CEF's and finally figuring them out... so far it looks like a poor timing to get in. Great stuff for the last 4 years... but better now to wait till the tumble happens. Great find that you've been in all along :).

     

    Wonder if they'd do as well in non-ZIRP when regular old really-safe bonds & bank accounts may finally have appeal again?
    16 Feb, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (749) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    Depends on the type of cef. There are a lot more types than just fixed income ones. Yeah, in general bond ones did nicely up til last May. I wasn't really buying those types over the last couple of years though - I was buying option/income ones which were at big discounts. Now those option type funds that I own are starting to narrow the discount.

     

    If you run a screen for discounts + a decent distribution on cefconnect, a lot of bond ones are at big discounts. A lot of global funds are at big discounts. Preferred funds are at big discounts (I don't look at those because I'd rather pick out my own). And if you dig around enough, you can find ones that are turning things around or even mislabeled on cefconnect.

     

    Here's one I found and bought into last fall - (LCM). Cefconnect categorizes it as global growth/hybrid. 80% of it's portfolio is listed as convertibles which should do well with rising interest rates. It's sister fund has risen in price since I originally bought it and was able to sell it for a profit - the sister fund was categorized as leveraged convertible.

     

    And, keep in mind that rates can go up, but they also can come back down.
    17 Feb, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7

     

    Good to know! These CEFs are all so foreign to me -- I have a lot to learn :). All much more complicated than the bond-like Blackrock CEF I used to own.

     

    What are convertibles? They like driving with the top down :-) ? Does leverage mean they're using tricks that increase risk?
    17 Feb, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (749) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    The leverage can be risky - adds to risk and reward. As far as convertibles, my limited understanding of them is that they are bonds or preferreds that pay out a lower interest rate but give the holder the right to convert them into common shares. They're supposed to perform better in a rising rate environment and if the common stock breaks much higher would make it valuable that way as well. I have limited understanding of them - that's why I'm interested in the funds.
    18 Feb, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7
    Thanks. That helps! Funds I assume give you the diversity to reduce risk... and make it easier to figure out.
    18 Feb, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone considered global Real Estate funds? Some have high yield and low leverage rations, like AWP. Global RE seems discounted but on an upward trend......
    16 Feb, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    astrr,

     

    I don't have any input for you there, maybe Tack can share if he has knowledge of that area...

     

    do u have more specifics that u can share ?
    17 Feb, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (749) | Send Message
     
    AS,

     

    You know, when I first started researching cefs in 2010, AWP was one that showed up on my screens, but I never bought into because of how bad the other Alpine funds were doing. And yet, they've managed to increase the nav slowly over the last couple of years. I've never researched them in depth, but it looks like they've done something right over the last few years.
    17 Feb, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    I hold positions in all of AWP, JRS and IGR. AWP and IGR are presently selling at very attractive discounts to NAV.
    19 Feb, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Tack - in looking at the two CEFs you mentioned (AWP, IGR) it looks like their discount to NAV is continuing to widen. Do you have any thoughts on why that is and what would cause that process to reverse? Is it because they are doing dividends as ROC?

     

    Thanks for sharing...!
    23 Feb, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    Z:

     

    I don't see that. Both of these funds' discounts bottomed in late 2013, and IGR's is even narrowing, now.

     

    ROC is not relevant.
    23 Feb, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the response Tack...

     

    In looking through many of these on cefconnect it would appear that it is a general trend in terms of direction for discount/premium (upwards).

     

    Out of curiosity, why do you say that ROC is not relevant? I always though ROC reduced NAV and their earning power over the long term.

     

    I opened up a position in VMO at the end of 2013, choosing them because they didn't do ROC, as well as it being tax free income.

     

    Thanks again for sharing your experience/knowlege.
    23 Feb, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    Z:

     

    It's not that simple. See last paragraph:

     

    http://bit.ly/1hfzYRC
    23 Feb, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Tack - Thanks for the read.

     

    In your experience, is there a way besides monitoring "Consistent under performance of net asset value vs. market prices" to spot such a predicament? By the time that trend becomes evident it might be too late, no?

     

    Kind of a chicken and egg problem. How do you think about this? Thanks again...
    23 Feb, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    T-

     

    Thank you for the link. I've begun dabbling with CEF's. One interesting item was the following:

     

    "The good news is that most funds trade at discounts, typically five to 10% below their NAVs. That’s especially important for dividend fund investors because you can get $100 of income producing assets for $90 to $95."

     

    I never even thought to look at it that way.
    23 Feb, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Zalach

     

    Welcome to the blog... and thanks for the great questions.

     

    .
    (Along with this chapter - at the bottom is a link to our next chapter.)
    23 Feb, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    @CWinn - Yeah that is pretty nifty. Someone else paid the "par" and took the loss for you, nice of them eh?

     

    @LOMH - Thanks - I had some extra time and was looking for ideas. Was reading through some of the older ones, and newer. Thanks for hosting!
    23 Feb, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    CW:

     

    I don't concur with that generalization about trading at discounts. One must understand the trading characteristics and history of each fund. The generalizations are useless, maybe worse.
    23 Feb, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    Z:

     

    I avoid buying or holding CEF's that trade at any significant premium to NAV, so the issue of consistent underperformance isn't one I need to address.
    23 Feb, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    T - thanks for the heads up.

     

    You said generalizations are useless, so I guess it's not a simple answer, but what causes trading below NAV? Is it investors selling to get out of the fund that causes it or other reasons. I would guess there could be multiple other reasons.
    23 Feb, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    cw:

     

    Expenses, leverage, tax issues, management issues, and, yes, selling of fund shares unrelated to movement of underlying assets.
    23 Feb, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like you let the CEF prove itself, and build a track record before investing which just makes a lot of sense.

     

    Thanks for the comments Tack.
    24 Feb, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • nutjob
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    I initiated $TGT mostly as it was knocked off its 52-week high by some 20+ percent; I like its $3.74/share in earnings and the 3% dividend.

     

    For similar reasons I also initiated $MAT which is near its 52-week lows. Buying on dips is not bad.

     

    Also looking through the Canadian banks, $BMO, $RY, $CM, $TD, no positions as I'd like to own them a little lower. That's my two cents to this blog, have a great trading day tomorrow.
    17 Feb, 06:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome nutjob!
    Thanks for the ideas! What do you like about the Canadian banks vs. other banks? Can you give a heads up when they seem ready to buy into?
    17 Feb, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • nutjob
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    When I compare EPS, P/E, dividend yield, and Beta the numbers look very good; Canadian banking in my opinion is more conservative than the US banking industry; that's what I like. As for buying in, I'd like to see a 10% correction from here, which may never come. They are quite stable in price.

     

    Health care is another sector I like, especially large-cap pharmaceuticals, but not at current quotes. The market overall is too high, but in health care we are at 52-week highs pretty much across the board.
    18 Feb, 04:52 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    (MAT) is interesting, I want it slightly cheaper I'm considering OTM puts, this is a business that takes a big hit during a recession.
    18 Feb, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    My latest thoughts on the S & P ......

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Feb, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11458) | Send Message
     
    Gold and silver still heading north !!
    17 Feb, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    From Bespoke

     

    It appears most for the dow components have moved to a more "neutral" stance after the last rally

     

    http://bit.ly/1fmdDOy
    17 Feb, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fear

     

    What were they with the last chart? Going back to the last blog & pulling it up, now pulls up this week's chart.

     

    Jeff Miller's weekly report is now bullish short term.
    17 Feb, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    the current chart shows where the stocks were last week Vs now..

     

    many were oversold
    17 Feb, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Does anyone set loss stops? What algorithm do you use? To stop out at 5-10% to try to prevent a slide crash? Or tighter at just above buy in rate to avoid losses?
    18 Feb, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    This may surprise some, but I almost never use stops and don't recommend them. The problems are numerous.

     

    First, if the stops are set close, you will likely be stopped out in normal volatility or when the market maker goes "fishing" for cheap shares by dropping the bid. If you lack confidence in your buy, then don't make it; if you have confidence, then don't look to cut and run.

     

    Second, stops can be downright dangerous, if they're set without limit orders, i.e., naked stops. The reason is that if, say, you have an issue at $20, and you set a stop at $18, but the stock gaps at the open to $10 in a "flash crash" open, or because there is no bid but a low one, then you will get stopped out at $10, only to likely see the shares right back up again, leaving you with a huge loss and for dead.

     

    Thirdly, if you place a stop with a limit price (i.e. in above example, say, an $18 stop, with a $17 limit), then you'll only be executed if the bid is between $18-$17, but not at all if it gaps way down, so you still incur whatever risk is is entailed with the gap-down opening.

     

    Fourth, if you have a very large unrealized gain, then it's just better to cash in some or all of the position and realize the gain than it is to play roulette with stops.

     

    Too many investors worry too much about trying to protect against any or a large loss and not nearly enough time in diversifying their portfolios and spreading out positions, so that any one "disaster" can't do that much damage. I strongly recommend that no position comprise more than 5% of any aggregate assets, and usually my own are in the 1-3% range.

     

    Portfolio management, yes; stops, no.
    19 Feb, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Stops...

     

    I'm thinking this may be why I'm having a hard time figuring out what to set them at.

     

    If set for big drops, it simply sells after it's down, or on the way down... but who's to know, & how much down to set a stop at? If set for small drops, any amount of waves, in the stock or the market, can catch it.

     

    I've finally decided on about .5% per position. It's low but feels "safe."

     

    So bottomline, as experienced investors, both of you find official stops problematic rather than helpful most of the time.
    19 Feb, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Yep ,Tack laid out the "details" as to why they are not used..
    19 Feb, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    0.5% below current price for a stop? Either don't buy whatever it is you're thinking of buying, or just sell whatever it is that worries you so much that you want to be out of it at 99.5% of its current price. The chances that your stop won't be executed are almost zero.

     

    Even though I don't like stops, for the reasons outlined, if I were a less experienced investor, or not monitoring my portfolio and wanted to feel safer (at least in my own mind), I'd set a stop at 95% of the price, not 99.5%.

     

    And, maybe, you should consider a trailing stop, which will automatically ratchet higher, if the share prices rises.
    19 Feb, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Lol. Not .5 for a stop :). .5% of my total funds for a position.

     

    I decided to leave that stops in my positions that moved up 5%, set about 1% above my buy in price. That way I won't take a loss if I miss something -- as you said, being new and also less focused, makes it harder to monitor if something is going wrong with a stock.

     

    On positions that I bought an am now near break even or underwater... that 95% sounds very good.

     

    For trailing stops I was disappointed to see at my broker, you can't set limits with them. You can't set part-percents either.
    19 Feb, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    What broker doesn't have stop-limit orders?
    19 Feb, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack
    I can do stop-limits. Or trailing stops. But with trailing stops, I can't add a limit price. When triggered they turn into market orders.
    19 Feb, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,
    I don't use stop' s ....at least not those that are "set" in your brokerage account.. I have my "mental" stops set on the tracking system i use , (Simple customized spreadsheet) and go from there..

     

    Please keep in mind ,that is in the context that I am not a trader , & most of my stops are set on what I call intermediate holdings ---- 6- 9 months or more..

     

    I also set "targets" in my system to identify where i may wish to trim the positions or sell calls to protect the downside a bit or add income.

     

    Since there was a recent discussion on Tech analysis , I find that using the "technicals" can help determine these stop and target points.

     

    Recent example (CTRP) intermediate holding and one of my "pick" for '14

     

    Purchased at 45 , it traded down to 36 ( then I added at 41) during market weakness and a headlines on a competitor (no fundamental company change )
    They just reported blowout earnings and the stock is now 50 . My target was and is 60-65..

     

    Its a fine line between having conviction on a purchase and deciding when you are "wrong" and getting out.. and that comes with experience and making sure you take emotion out of the situation..
    I also wil add , its not as EZ as it sounds , and of course any "strategy" like that isnt infallable....
    For me , with these types of holdings its all about trying to put the percentages in your favor..
    19 Feb, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    A bit of news on the country that started all of the controversy in the eurozone

     

    A testament to how things can truly change ......

     

    http://read.bi/MAo1vl
    19 Feb, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    You've described that over time from many years of experience you've found best returns by staying balanced. Meaning between preferreds, common stocks, and I think you said debit. What do you mean by debit?

     

    Is there a way to describe what each contributes to a portfolio that keeps that leg of it moving up (i.e. gives it all balance).

     

    Thanks!
    19 Feb, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    No, I said "debt," as in bonds or exchange-traded debt issues of CEF's.

     

    I try to keep my portfolio balanced in the following ranges, depending where I sense things are economically, in the market cycle and with interest rates:

     

    Common stocks (or CEF's with common stocks) - 45-65%
    Preferred stocks (or CEF's with preferred stocks) - 20-30%
    Debt (or CEF's with debt issues) - 15-25%

     

    Often times, the preferred and debt issues will perform much better in down markets than the common stocks, and vice versa. In all cases the portfolio keeps throwing off yield to be reinvested, as appropriate (or spent, if necessary).
    19 Feb, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cool, thank you. I understand much better now. Even if you've been saying this forever :).
    19 Feb, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Here is a look at how fund managers are positioned in Feb.

     

    http://bit.ly/1jHWinf

     

    Interesting to note their "under" exposure to "energy" and the EM'S

     

    "Fund managers' exposure to energy is the lowest ever .-2.8 standard deviations below the 10 year average."

     

    http://bit.ly/1jHWjYl

     

    "Emerging markets have been underperforming SPX for a year. Funds are now back to a record low exposure -2.7 standard deviations below the 10 year average."

     

    http://bit.ly/1jHWinn

     

    When i see the words "record low" and "lowest ever" it sparks interest as a totally oversold condition. These areas may now represent an opportunity , as hedge funds "re-discover" these areas, prices will then rebound accordingly..

     

    "Tack" has been on the EM bandwagon for a while and for good reason, I have decent exposure to the Energy sector , time to take a serous look at the EM's :)
    19 Feb, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    As I have wrote. I have been on the EM bandwagon for some time as well. I bought EGPT at 40 at the time of the coup, sold it for 62 in 6 months. Turkey, Brazil, Thailand and Vietnam are all high on my list. EM's will be the next secular bull market likely.
    19 Feb, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » How do you do EM's? Do you have stocks or ETFs that you like?
    19 Feb, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » China's having economic slowdowns... is that what the EM hesitations is about? Meanwhile are funds moving into the areas Tack mentioned, like Brazil?
    19 Feb, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,
    i believe the reports shows that the funds aren't moving there just yet..

     

    hard to say when that is going to start, but putting them on the radar screen is worthwhile now ..
    19 Feb, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Issues on the EM radar list:

     

    (SID)
    (VALE)
    (PBR)
    (ABEV)
    (AKO.A)
    (FBZ)
    (CIG)
    (EBR)
    19 Feb, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oooo... is the Fed mention of raising interest rates going to start a correction... so we can all put our spare cash to work?
    19 Feb, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Hmmm, we;ll see , I also heard there was a report of "possible " terror " activity on international flights destined to US. that sparked the selling wave..

     

    All conjecture of course.. maybe traders needed a 'trigger" story to sell :)
    19 Feb, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    We've had a big run. Today was just your typical rollover, profit-taking day. Fill in the excuse du jour.
    19 Feb, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    The market went down but everything I like went up... >_<" Did you guys see anything you like today?

     

    On other news, Dow dip below its 60 dma and I notice a double top on the 3 months S&P. I really want to put my cash to work now but I don't know, it could be a bull trap. (I am looking into my crystal ball, let's just hope I don't have to eat it later.) XD
    19 Feb, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    at this point it truly does come down to a crystal ball reading, as to where the S & P goes next..

     

    I do like (MU) on any pullback to the 23.50- 24 level

     

    A recent addition I made @ 34.70--- (ALR) a little more conservative ,,is fairly priced now and can be bought ..

     

    Both of these held up well today , and in my view are intermediate holdings 6-9 months or longer..
    19 Feb, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So more sideways...

     

    I saw the CNBC talking about Ukraine (I missed anything about planes)... the market wasn't reacting at that point. Didn't seem like much of a deal compared to fundamentals...
    19 Feb, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Thanks F&G! XD
    19 Feb, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    I think its a huge dip to buy. Can't believe the prices. Going in on margin.

     

    On Brazil; It will be a huge winner one day. I wrote an instablog on that months ago. However, it makes sense to go in after a positive electoral change. Jumping in before that is gambling, which might be fine for some people.
    19 Feb, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro
    That sounds like a good external issue to wait for (elections). The recovery will be big enough that missing the bottom is fine.

     

    For huge dip - you don't mean US market? You mean Brazil?
    19 Feb, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, the dip was US. Bit of sarcasm. I'm short and remaining so.
    19 Feb, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    M,
    just looking at the (EWZ) chart and taking that as a proxy for 'Brazil" , in my view it's still groping to find a bottom here ..

     

    So , I'm in a " wait and see " mode for now .

     

    I'm going to take a look at the ind. names Tack posted..
    19 Feb, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Yep, me too. PBR is a cash cow for the govt, not allowed to make any money. Huge Royalties they pay. Vale -- you would want to see a global acceleration in growth, is a commodity play. Tough if China keeps slowing, slowing. I'm actually more interested in Brazil small caps, and China small caps one day, plays on the middle class consumer. I'm pretty lukewarm on commodities, ESP metals. Look at copper, can't get out of its own way. Very, very oversold though. Politics is huge. I think the better trade is what I'm short -- pretty good day for me btw -- these really expensive US growth names. Perhaps we get a washout and I can pick up the EM names cheaper.
    19 Feb, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Another banker committed suicide, that makes 8 bankers dead within the last 30 days. Of course we would all convey our sincerest condolences to their families but some of us would wonder if there could be something seriously wrong with these banks or are these really suicides? Of course people must be wondering if now is a good time to buy puts on these banks too? No offense, but if your employees keep killing themselves, one might asks what's wrong with your business. What do you guys think?
    19 Feb, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie

     

    That's big time creepy ... and very sad. Is it a particular bank??

     

    "Going postal" turned out that the Post Office was hiring an unusually high number of recent veterans. At the time, post return from war care didn't have much psych component. So that's why the shoot ups were happening at the post office.

     

    It could be anything. The banks though, have long since proven their willingness to "bend" the rules! Wonder how their pressuring their employees?
    19 Feb, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    3 from JP Morgan. Here's the article:
    http://bit.ly/1e8W6Z7
    19 Feb, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie

     

    Wonder how many of these exist normally in that size population across that many countries? It may be normal statistically. But also "drama" seems to follow JP Morgan :).
    19 Feb, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On tax on (SDRL) because it includes foreign drilling...

     

    AZKID44 just posted to an (SDRL) article:
    "I've held SDRL for a couple of years and I can tell you there has not been any foreign tax withholdings in my taxable brokerage account. IMHO its a great investment !!!"
    19 Feb, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Anyone looked at Tesla Motors? (TSLA) Anyone own or drove one of its cars? This company is an electric car company that is limited or banned in 48 states and its stock price jump from about $35 dollars to $200+ in a year. Buy, short, or stay away? Help? XD please. XD
    19 Feb, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,
    strictly a momentum name , a traders delight IF u get on the correct side .. IF not its painful..

     

    IMO--- (TSLA) IS pure speculation...
    20 Feb, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    That's why it's so exciting. XD If it does go down to $50 like some people suggested then that's a lot of money. We could make millions. XD How far would momentum take this?

     

    The thing is, we are dealing with a cult full of rich hippies, that's what it feels like to me.

     

    I would like to test drive one before I decide what to do with the stock, but do you own one their cars F&G? Perhaps drove one? Their cars are banned or very limited in 48 states and those cars are pure electric so, no gas stations. Sounds pretty bad if you ask me (but no one asked me, LOL) People who are buying these cars and holding the stock are wealthy treehuggers so I don't know... how long could they last(holding their stock)

     

    I really want to know what you and other think about this about when to short. (Lots of money to be made here) XD
    20 Feb, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Where is everyone?... still watching the Olympics?
    19 Feb, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A question for everyone...

     

    Have you ever used an Financial advisor... or explored using one. Why did you opt to self-manage?
    19 Feb, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    No. No. Money. ;)
    19 Feb, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,
    yes i did, I liked his style so much and his approach to things ,including life in general ,I decided to become one as second career , :)

     

    Plenty of bad raps on FA's and many of those bad raps are deserved..

     

    I'm independent , and only have a handful of accounts , So it's more fun than work for me and i'll try and keep it that way.. :)
    20 Feb, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F,

     

    That's so interesting...!! Can I ask what you were before?

     

    Also are you comfortable giving out your past return rates to future clients? I find FAs aren't always... even Fisher Investing with all their clients.
    20 Feb, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT
    Hum, gotta build that nest egg before paying someone to keep it warm, ;)?
    19 Feb, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Yes. I'm definitely at the 'every penny counts' stage. :)
    20 Feb, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Would you agree with this Ken Fischer statement in his book "The Little Book of Market Myths:

     

    That bear markets don't start with a bang, but a slow downward grind. While corrections start with a sentimental-driven bang?

     

    Quote:
    "Folks think bear markets start with a bang—they usually don’t. Corrections start like that—a big, sentiment-driven drop that scares the pants off most everyone. It would be much easier if bear markets had that pants-off scaring announcement factor. “Hey! Big bear coming!” But the reason so many people get ensnared is bull market tops tend to roll over, and the new bear slowly grinds lower. It doesn’t look or feel like a bear market—it feels like sideways choppiness, which happens during the course of bull markets, too!"
    20 Feb, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I don't think we can have a bear market because the Fed would step in. I believe we would have short massive corrections and quick titanic recoveries. Just like yesterday and today, I think. Well... yesterday was not really massive correction, but today we would have recovery, I think. If we don't then, maybe, this could be a bear market. XD
    20 Feb, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,
    In my experience , markets tend to "grind" higher then , can have the rug taken out from under.

     

    Don't quote me on the exact numbers but the last 6% dip in the S & p occurred in 7 trading days , it wiped out a slow climb that started on Oct 23 and ended on Jan 22nd.. 3 months taken out in 7 days . This is typical..

     

    The downward spikes are always quick and violent..
    20 Feb, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    I would have liked to see a slower base building rebound than that quick snapback rally we just saw.. it adds more strength and depth to the advance ...

     

    I think the jury is still out as to whether the correction is really over..

     

    However, IMO , the LT trend is in tact..
    20 Feb, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    FG

     

    I agree on the slower base building. All of my core holdings took a nice beat down, only to jump back up before I could get funds put to them. I did add twice to (TGT) and (PM).
    20 Feb, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Will the punishment never end for (PM)? Holding, but starting to get irritated. :)
    20 Feb, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    I hear ya!

     

    (NRF) is hitting new 52 week high today though, so it's not all bad for me.
    20 Feb, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, Newbie

     

    S&P at 1840, solidly above 30day MA for a week now. Is this a resistance level it's testing?
    20 Feb, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Sorry :(. Just don't take that irritation out with a cigarette! Even if it's good for your stock :)
    20 Feb, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    I am paying close attention to the banks. Just not great action. Maybe in this market they don't matter, but history would suggest banks and Trannies are important, Both are lagging badly.

     

    Combined with gold rallying, one's attennas should be up IMO. Came in short GS and have added short C. Covered shorts in IWM, NFLX.

     

    Keeping shorts TWTR, LNKD. What can I say -- I'm impressed with the resilience but not with the leading sectors. FB -- wow. Growth at any price I guess is the motto of this market, you see it everywhere. I think FB is quite risky at this price, but not involved.
    20 Feb, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    The quick snap - back to me is evidence of the "fear" of missing out. That exists on the bull side, too....
    20 Feb, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » When interest rates rise, how will that effect the market?

     

    My worry is with banks & CDs as alternatives, the DGIs (large caps) will get less money, & start a slow spiral down for a while.
    20 Feb, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ops, not just a worry, but a good thing -- I have cash waiting!!
    20 Feb, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Fear of missing out... sounds right. Could there still be belief the Fed won't let a crash happen?
    20 Feb, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    All kinds of fancy explanations for totally routine market behavior.

     

    After a 30% run-up in 2013, it should have come as a less-than-zero surprise that 2014 would open with selling, as many investors, who wanted to pocket some gains, didn't want it on 2013 1099's. So, that's exactly what transpired.

     

    But, of course, we had the usual crazies, immediately appearing on SA, claiming this was the onset of a major correction. Heck, some loudly proclaimed we'd head down 50 or 70%, no joke.

     

    And, the recovery buying has been equally mundane, no frantic rush into markets and completely routine, low-volume buying, just like we've see for several years, now. The pattern remain identical.

     

    Markets can't gain any downside traction, regardless of headline news or scare stories, simply because there is way too much liquidity, and money assigned to assets other than equities, to permit it. It would truly take some kind of major geopolitical event or sustained bad news to alter these trends.

     

    So, barring some kind of new inputs, the economy will continue to expand, while certain factions complain about the rate of growth, and markets will likely meander higher in concert. Boring is good, even if folks don't realize it.

     

    The things to keep an eye on are how the still-unloved sectors (EM's, energy, resources, Europe) perform. If we start to see these markets catch a bid, we're going a lot higher. Maybe, then, volume will finally pick up, as the doubters really do become desperate. That will be the time to be cautious.
    20 Feb, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,
    1848 -1850 (the old highs) is the overhead resistance that the S & p is faced with ..
    20 Feb, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    My spider sense is still telling me there is a huge crash coming and that tingling comes from Japan. I think, and could be very wrong here, Japan has been having QE in one form or another since the 90's, that's more than 20 years of QE.

     

    Now, I heard a rumor that Japan wants to double its money supply in two years. SO... the Japanese government wants a rate of exchange of 200 yens for every 1 dollar. I don't think I would like that very much if I was a regular Japanese person. Nor would I be too happy if I was doing business with Japan. What? By the time I print out the price tags, my items are already on discount? LOL XD

     

    But... I could be wrong. I mean I read that a lot of folks tried to short the yen and got murdered, but hey maybe they just had a little accounting issue. XD
    20 Feb, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    You have a better chance of being eaten by arachnids.
    20 Feb, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I'm not on the same page as far as the banks as you,, their recent price action is sloppy BUT it may just be rotation out of that sector which was hot in'13..

     

    GS has held the 200 day MA and IMHO it was totally oversold at 161 ....

     

    I'm watching BAC , i think it could be a "trade" here back up to test the highs of 17.40

     

    I have a good LT position so I may not decide to "trade" here.. IMO ,HUGE support @16 , the area of the recent breakout..

     

    I'm in FB @ 25 - (& have written calls for income all the way up...) I picked it up when everyone called zuckerberg a fool ,,, its my "lottery" pick.

     

    20 Feb, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    LOL. Oh that would be a huge spider. I know it's an irrational fear but we have irrational exuberance so why not irrational fear! XD.
    20 Feb, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    the Banks will print money .. LT -- (JPM) is a $70 stock , (BAC) is a $20 stock
    20 Feb, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Obviously some would not agree. But there is some serious growth chasing going on here, where a value stock like AAPL can get no traction, and money is piling into any stock with a chance of growth. Evidence action in FB, GMCR, TSLA, and a bunch of others.

     

    Tack is correct it is a liquidity driven bull. However -- the FED is now tapering -- and markets look ahead. I'd feel better even buying out of an extended consolidation, set up better bases.

     

    Another concern is cost - push inflation, which the Fed may be watching, in oil prices, rental prices.

     

    We are in -- charitably -- a slow growth economy. Even the bulls have to admit some of these stocks are awfully expensive. One of my shorts, LNKD, is seeing growth slow every quarter. So justify the valuation?

     

    I'd love the buy the EM markets -- but they continue to act terrible. I'd like to see China stop tightening first, too.
    20 Feb, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There isn't a horde of spiders coming? My niece's favorite sci fi book (that she has me listening to)... says they ARE. Robot spiders, that is.

     

    ----------

     

    Newbie -

     

    When I got to SA last year, I listened to talk of crashing. After a month I knew that wasn't going to happen. I made the mistake of getting out initially, then had trouble getting back in and missed the run up.

     

    On a crash:
    --- Fed's watching & will take actions.

     

    --- Crash over what? Economy is slowly improving. There's no IMMEDIATE irrationally in the fiscal system like there was with banks, and loans, & RE last time.

     

    --- So many people aren't in the market, still holding back from the last crash. So we don't have the "everyone's in, it's wonderful swimming" that's at the tops. We have a wall of worry we're climbing.

     

    --- Europe, S.America, China... while they have issues... they're not at brink's door anymore. Japan isn't going to sink the US. It's one of the walls of worry I've been hearing since mid-last year.

     

    I'd love to know when the next correction is, so I could "time getting in"... but a big crash, isn't coming.

     

    I'm no expert... but after filtering the noise... this is what I've gotten from those who've been consistently accurate, not just on the bull but on the weaknesses too... That includes Fear, and Tack.
    20 Feb, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    We'll see. No FB position for me and no plans. However market may interpret a weakening of position for LNKD and TWTR competitive position, so am sticking with those.

     

    Have you read much on the "farmland" bubble? This is a risk for the banks. Farmland has gone ballistic in recent years much like residential did.
    20 Feb, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    M,
    The banks are selling at discounts and are on the Right side of the LT rising interest rate trade.

     

    As i have stated before the stocks you keep highlighting are not representative of the market at all

     

    Check out (RIG) The shares are going for under 8.5x forward earnings, a deep discount to the overall market multiple in addition to the company's five year average valuation of 10.7. The company has also beaten bottom line expectations five of the last six quarters. RIG sells for just under book value and has a five year projected PEG of under 1 (.63). The company has a ~$30B order backlog. Add the 5.2% current div. yield & all of that makes a compelling case to add these shares currently trading @ $43..
    plenty of value present here.. as its not just all of the "headline " names
    (TSLA) (LNKD) , et al

     

    So my view differs and thats what makes a market..
    20 Feb, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    China just engaged in a huge borrowing expansion. But, China could meander a bit.

     

    The market with the hysterically-low values is Brazil. I can't pinpoint the day or exact level of the bottom; all I know is that huge sums of money stand to be made on the reversal. And, I think the 2016 Olympics can only be good for Brazil.
    20 Feb, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Brazil news today

     

    "Brazil unemployment rate shy of estimates "

     

    "The unadjusted jobless rate in January rose to 4.8% from 4.3% in December, but was below forecasts for 5.1%. The seasonally adjusted rate was flat month-over-month." http://bit.ly/1mfkDCw
    20 Feb, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    I agree on Brazil but would rather wait until closer to the election.
    20 Feb, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    What is the issue with (RIG). That is cheap for that stock.

     

    On the banks, I'm not sure I agree. I believe the Fed's actions may flatten the yield curve.
    20 Feb, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Fed's actions will have virtually no effect. Rates will be driven by loan demand and growth rates, period. Stopping the sloshing into excess reserves is about as meaningless as it can be.
    20 Feb, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    Sentiment there is poor to say the least , Tons of negativity on the offshore oil sector.. and plenty of downgrades from the analysts..

     

    They report next week , it will be interesting to see what shakes out ..
    20 Feb, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    So true F&G, over valued stocks like (TSLA) (LNKD) etc. do not represent the entire market. So many stocks are still under valued with PE ratios under 15. Just check out a some of the DOW stocks, like (UNH). Or look at the S&P 500, which is not overvalued in terms of PE ratio. As we know, it's earnings that will drive the stocks we own - which we bought under valued - so that's why we are seeing our stock picks continue to go up. I follow what you have been writing, and we own many of the same stocks.

     

    I wouldn't touch a stock with a PE ratio in the thousands.

     

    (VALE) is a great way to play the emerging markets comeback. Just bought it a few days ago.

     

    Another stock that will make you money is (MO). It's at a great price right now & has a 5.4% dividend.

     

    (KO) has been clobbered! I bought (PEP) …. not giving up on (KO) but owning both makes me feel better.
    20 Feb, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    T:

     

    The World Cup starting this summer has not seemed to help Brazil. Why would the Olympics?
    21 Feb, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    A good question. Think the Olympics will bring more attention, but, maybe not.

     

    In any case, after some issues in Brazil down 50-80%, I am very attracted to them as value investments, especially those, like VALE and SID, whose business does not depend on the local economy.

     

    Brazil could go lower, but it appears to be setting up as a nice value play.
    21 Feb, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    The World Cup will dwarf the Olympics is terms of attention. Soccer is the #1 sport worldwide. It is carnival times 1000. Soccer is a religion in Brazil and most of the world.

     

    I will be going to the Cup this summer and am looking forward to it.

     

    On the investment front, any other high yield candidates for Brazilian stocks than are mostly exporters, other than SID and VALE?

     

    I get a wide variety of yields from different sources for Brazilian stocks. Examples:

     

    SID

     

    3.71% M*
    10.8% Etrade
    2.97% Bloomberg
    4.8% Yahoo finance
    1.28% Marketwatch

     

    So i question if SID is really a high yielder. What is your best source to find the most accurate yields?
    21 Feb, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    Most international issues don't observe uniform distribution rates, so you can't look at the latest yield indicators. you have to pull up a 3- or 5-year chart and see what the pattern of payouts has been.

     

    Some other issues to watch:

     

    (PBR)
    (ABEV)
    (AKO.A) - Chile, Argentina, Brazil
    (EBR)
    (CIG)
    21 Feb, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    Thanks T. Can you show me a link where you have to pull up a 3- or 5-year chart to see what the pattern of payouts has been?
    21 Feb, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    As:

     

    Any chart from Yahoo or your broker has ability to overlay splits and dividends.
    21 Feb, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    Just wanted to add that two of the issues I like sell consumer beverages (ABEV) and (AKO.A). One would think the World Cup and Olympics might prove beneficial for these businesses.
    21 Feb, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Astarr

     

    Soccer fan? Who's going to win?? Sounds like a great trip!
    22 Feb, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Is 'soccer' that sport where they can't use their hands?
    22 Feb, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    LOMH:

     

    Brazil is the favorite. Home turf advantage. No european team has ever won in a Cup played in Latin America. Argentina vs Brazil in the final would be incredible. What a contest! Quality and passion, plus they are bitter rivals. Think Red Sox vs Yankees rivalry history....

     

    Unfortunately Brazilians have increased apartment rentals by +-1000%!!! 3 bedroon near the beach in Rio costs min. $800/night! Well, life is about experiences...
    22 Feb, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    Only the goalkeeper!
    22 Feb, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cwinn

     

    The turn around in mood this morning was fast! I went to eat breakfast, and missed it!
    20 Feb, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    Was green for the entire day yesterday up to about 3:30...boom, I got busy at work and happened to look around 6 and it was red!

     

    Today all green.

     

    Surprised on Tesla too...wasn't someone here shorting Tesla?? If so, what does that do to the short?
    20 Feb, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cwinn
    I was watching yesterday for downturn from Fed (had a day trade in mind). Nothing much for 1/2 hour. Then came back... and it was all red. There was talk of a terrorist threat to planes coming to the US, maybe an excuse to take profits?

     

    Mercurial lately... and very news reactive.
    20 Feb, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    IMO, shorting the momentum names is difficult at best ,especially with a Bull market as a backdrop..

     

    These names can run far greater than anyone can think regardless of what someone thinks of valuations..

     

    Put these names in a bear market and they get slaughtered , but that is not the backdrop ..

     

    my .02
    20 Feb, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    Bummer... but thanks for the advice.
    20 Feb, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Yep, I was shorting TSLA. Covered on the pre - earnings selloff at 195, put the short back on at 212. Gotta trade around positions.
    20 Feb, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Now I know everyone cautious or looking for a notable correction, like I am, is a pure doom and gloomer, sitting in his basement rubbing his canned goods together with gold pieces, and that represents the majority, so there are billions or scared dollars on the sidelines.....but for the bulls out there, a few questions:

     

    SA is known for its doom and gloom articles. I count very few lately in the "macro" section. Not compared to when europe was having issues. Maybe one total on China.

     

    Leading stocks, a curious mix: Speculative internet names, Gold, defensive's like utilities, a lot of penny stock volume -- that just appeared -- and lol Cannabis names. Not positive. Badly lagging -- banks and transports.

     

    As to the fear from the public bla bla, yesterdays AAII numbers, 42% bulls, 22% bears.

     

    Now this doesn't discount anyone's strategy to buy (RIG) with a 5% yield. Nothing wrong with that. But these kind of things should raise eyebrows as to the health of the advance.

     

    For my style, I need to see a "fear refresh" before buying in ---
    21 Feb, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    As you , i am cautious and looking for a correction as I have stated that many times in my blog.. In fact when i critiqued my own performance at the end of the year , i mentioned in commentary that at times I was too cautious.. But because of my station in life i will err on that side.. I've been at this for 30+ yrs so u can do the math -lol

     

    The difference between someone like myself and you , i believe, is the investor approach vs. more of a "trader" approach that you seem to lean to.. Please let me know if I have jumped to the wrong conclusion there.. :)

     

    If I understand where u are coming from, U have some LT positions , and then attempt to "trade" around what u feel are shorter term themes I.E some of your recent short positions.

     

    I take the other approach in that the bulk of my holdings are LT , (not to be confused with buy and forget) , and then add what i feel may be intermediate holds or trades if you wish to use that term.. a recent example is (MU) ..

     

    I often mention the AAII numbers and have stated they change like we change or socks..
    Here is my commentary from Feb 8th

     

    "According to the weekly survey of bullish sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors ( AAII) , bullish sentiment declined from 32.2% last week to 27.90% this week. This represents the lowest reading for bullish sentiment since last April. "

     

    So if one wishes to use that to make a call for next week or even next month based on that - its fine , but for the most part i dismiss it.. and with the mindset i take to my investments, I am looking at the macro sentiment out there , and i believe i have shown plenty to say that this market is NOT embraced at all by the masses .
    Look at the data i presented last week regarding fund flows,, etc . and its relation to the other major market "tops" --- The sentiment isnt remotely there in the other cases.

     

    IF i read you correctly when u say the "health" of the market , i assume from your recent commentary you are concerned and looking to take advantage of that with trades...

     

    From my perspective , while we agree that a decent correction maybe imminent, but in my mind when it passes , as they always do , i will be ready to put money to work. So i'm not in the mindset of trying to "trade" around that drop..

     

    If anything i approach the market now with picking spots like (RIG) , where i can sit and get paid even if the market drops. I'll add or initiate a position now that may have recently dropped 15-20% because of "news" or market conditions (yes there are many out there that have dropped yet are in great shape) My recent thoughts on a stock that fits that criteria (CPA)
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and I sell more calls against my positions now than I would do IF we drop 10-15% .
    As u state a "fear' refresh will remove some of the excess u cite. While u may wish to try to take advantage of that , i'm looking to let it pass and then move on..
    I have to---- because as i look back and say where would i be if I turned tail at S & p 1400,1500,1600,1700 waiting for a decent correction that never came.
    And all of the concerns you have and many more were there at every point in this rally ...
    one last point ----S & P earnings will be $120 this year and a 17 multiple (which is where we are today suggests an S & p of 2040) I use that as my backdrop , and have mentioned i don't know how we get there--- direct from here or a good pullback , but I believe we get there somewhere down the road.
    of course all that disagree with me will pick apart my earnings forecasts and other arguments
    -- so be it .. :) I wish them luck..... 

     

    21 Feb, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    FG; your approach is likely sounder than mine, as we don't even seem to pause!

     

    I have some long positions as well but am net short, so certainly am fighting the market here.

     

    Different styles -- I have no argument with your approach. I just get irritated with those who associate calling for a correction with doom gloom and canned goods crowd. Speaks to a lack of fear when bulls ridicule bears.
    21 Feb, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    IT's blog that is where this blog idea came from... has a few real doom and gloomers on it (along with investors), as does some of SA have some real d&gs. So there's a history here you are dropping into :). Hence early commentary that wasn't meant to apply to you.

     

    So not to worry, all views are welcome... and it's been obvious you are assessing the markets from your viewpoint, not living in a bunker underground for the pending end of the world with soup cans. :). (Though I do have a handheld can opener in my kitchen drawer, just in case.)
    21 Feb, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Calling for a "correction" and being a "bear" are two wholly different things. Make up your mind which you are. No sensible investor (not trader) would be net short, wondering if, when and how much of a correction we might have. Therefore, I must conclude you're a bear, whether you even know it or not, and one, who is not reading the tea leaves very well.

     

    While I respond to sentiment data, when others bring it up, my own view is that all of it -- AAII, Michigan, industry, the works -- is worthless. It matters not at all what people say because they'll give you an opinion any day you ask them, and it usually affected by that day's headlines and is likely not indicative of what they're doing with their money.

     

    The actual data, alternatively, rarely lies. And, what the market data has show for months, years even, is that this rally has never, ever been embraced, loved and chased. The volumes have been muted ever since 2009 (even declining as time has passed), and we see sizable sustained spikes neither when markets have declined nor when they have ascended. This has made for remarkably low volatility and has been representative of a more solid core of investors, rather than a large contingent of stock chasers.

     

    Adding to market support has been the huge liquidity, which does not appear anywhere near exhaustion, as huge sums are allocated to places other than equities, e.g., cash, gold, bonds, etc.

     

    This market is nowhere limits of greed and complacency nor fear and hopelessness. It's wandering comfortably in the middle somewhere. You might want to reconsider all the foregoing, as it applies to making a big short bet, especially if you're only trying to short what you expect to be a minor correction.
    21 Feb, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    i hear ya , different styles for different people..

     

    :)
    21 Feb, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for your investment advice. I've been doing this a long time, and I think I know chasing when I see it. We can agree to disagree. I am looking for a substantial correction in the riskiest sectors of the market, not a little one. Like 20 % in my short portfolio, at least. I don't know, and don't care, what the SPX does in that time.

     

    Hint. Euphoric volume is Not Required to precede a big correction. You won't see it to the degree of 2000, if no other reason than the investing population is getting older. Not likely to see a new, giant generation of day traders. My research, indicates people are all-in, and really heavily in the riskiest sectors. I am betting against the crowd here, and am comfortable doing so.
    21 Feb, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Other than highly-publicized individual tech names, I'd be interested to know what "sectors" you consider the most overvalued and risky.

     

    Regardless of strategically-placed shorts, I find that your "net short" comment means you have over 50% of your portfolio allocated to a narrow selection of shorts, or you are more "market short" than you seem to indicate. In any case, it's a big one-sided bet, and one only a pure trader would make.
    21 Feb, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Pure trader. I'll take that as a compliment. I'll take lots of bets few will make, like buying the Egypt ETF at the time of the coup.
    21 Feb, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Or, GREK.

     

    Then, I'll assume you might be buying or watching closely the Brazil Fund, now.
    21 Feb, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (11458) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH

     

    Can you point out the doom and gloomers on my blog?

     

    Just because some own metals makes them a part of that category?

     

    Almost everyone on my blog OWN stocks as well. If they were doom and gloomers they would not.

     

    I think you are mistaken..

     

    Like MACRO said if someone owns metals they are thrown into that category and that is wrong..

     

    Some real d&g ers.?? Who ??

     

    Serious question, do i have people that think the metals are going to rise in value, Sure..Does that make them doomers ? No...
    21 Feb, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    You see no selling interest on the dips. True. I see zero real buying interest on the rallies far in 2014
    21 Feb, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    You are just so close to the trees, looking at only a few weeks, where we had yet another attempted dip nullified. It's a pattern.

     

    Take a look at this chart, then tell me a single thing you see that looks different in 2014. I'll even give you extra time to try to come up with something.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/l93...
    21 Feb, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    @Tack

     

    Your chart confirms "sell in may and go away". Seriously, look at it. Every big dip happens in April or May and bottoms out at June or July.

     

    And here I thought that your weren't superstitious. XD
    21 Feb, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    NT:

     

    The only two dips, even worth talking about, occurred in may and August, and each was occasioned by particular news, not some cosmic "sell in May" nonsense.

     

    The rest of the dips are insignificant and would take a lotto winner to predict and trade.
    21 Feb, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BFS

     

    Looks like (KO) finally got good news, with their earnings report! 8.9% increase in dividend!!
    20 Feb, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Has anyone listened all the way through Motley Fools sales pitch for companies replacing cable? I tried once.
    20 Feb, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it's my age or experience, but the stock market is absolutely the best place to invest. If you're young, first take care of things like paying off all your credit cards (never buy what you can't afford), have an emergency fund, etc. Maybe even better for those that have kids or nieces/nephews get them started with investing while they are young. Then by the time they are in their 20's they will already have financial skills.

     

    It may take 40 years or more to build up your retirement fund (and investing fund) so that you can retire comfortably. Funny thing is, we already could be retired, but have to get thru the next few years until we will start living off of our IRAs. For the first time in years, I actually feel very positive about the future. We will still see some ups & downs, but overall if you stay the course your investments should do well. Of course, it does depend on what you are buying.

     

    I've had very good success with mutual funds & bonds in the past. Now I've switched over to all individual stocks, REITs, etc all listed in my profile here on SA.

     

    By sticking with blue ribbon, quality stocks that mostly have a dividend, the results have been excellent. The strategy of buying quality when it's value priced or beaten down really does work.

     

    Then hold your position until it doesn't make sense any more. The first indication that a company many be having problems is the dividend. If they cut it or freeze it for too long, that's your signal to sell. Meanwhile, sit back & collect the dividends while your investment grows.

     

    Thinking that you will make $ fast may get you into trouble.

     

    It's not about how much your income is, it's about what you do with it that counts.
    20 Feb, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    "It's not about how much your income is, it's about what you do with it that counts."

     

    Good point. From time to time I hear people on SA telling someone if they only have X amount of dollars that they should just put it in a money market fund. You don't need a big wad of cash to invest in stocks. I started my son's portfolio with $1750. It has since more than tripled, all in individual stocks, never holding more than 5 at once.
    20 Feb, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT
    I like those returns! How long did it take to triple? How did you find the stocks?
    20 Feb, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    4 years to triple. All stocks were picked from Computershare's offerings. Criteria for initial purchase was no fees on buying or reinvestment. Two were swapped out in that time, and I now want to get them out because those two DO have fees.
    20 Feb, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Still long FNMA? XD
    20 Feb, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3809) | Send Message
     
    Never invested in it.
    20 Feb, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, my mistake. Computershare's offerings hum. I'll check it out. Thanks.
    21 Feb, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Could Ukraine signify the start of another Cold War? >_<"
    Anyone watched "I am a Ukrainian"?
    http://bit.ly/1bQrMbC

     

    Some people are saying that it's a US back uprising
    http://bit.ly/1bQrOA4

     

    AND there are rumors that say that 3 cities in Ukraine have backed the protesters or rebels?
    http://bit.ly/1bQrOA5
    http://bbc.in/1bQrOA7
    http://onforb.es/1bQrMbD

     

    We offer our deepest condolences of course but what stocks would be good if a Cold War breaks out? And what would it do to the market in general?
    20 Feb, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    I don't let these type of issues enter into my investment strategy .

     

    No disrespect to anyone of Ukranian heritage or do i casually dismiss what they are going thru, but mixing politics, this type of news, etc. and investing is a bad idea..

     

    If one believes that this may develop into something "bigger" then the "fear" position is Gold.

     

    I am not of that mindset and therefore wouldn't be interested in doing so..
    21 Feb, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    I was wondering if there's going to be any economic reprisals coming from the loser of this international pissing contest. >-< Apparently not...
    Right after the Nazi fell in WWII, Allied tanks and Soviet tanks face off one another in Berlin, I guess that's not happening in Ukraine which is good. Still, I wonder how it would end this time.

     

    Anyway, at least DD seems to be effected by Ukraine and that could mean corn prices would be going up.

     

    You like agriculture Fear? Jim Roger was all for agriculture, and I sorta agree with him but I like fertilizer better and it turns out that DD is not such a good company anymore. What do you think?
    21 Feb, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    from a LT macro viewpoint agriculture should stand to do well as more folks in the global economy graduate to the middle class in their respective countries.

     

    in my view that has to keep demand high..

     

    I own one fertilizer co. (UAN) ,its an MLP that i have owned since the IPO .. It pays a nice distribution

     

    I have owned (POT) the fertilizer co. - lol
    in the past. and right now it does look attractive and pays a nice div. (MOS) is another that is popular. It's not a sector that i follow closely , i do know the fertilizer stocks are out of favor now , many of them are at the low end of their trading ranges, but for a LT view that may make them attractive .

     

    I don't follow the "futures" market in the grains meat, etc. so I have no opinion there..
    21 Feb, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie

     

    It won't create the kind of big geopolitical event that will tank the world's markets. I'd look to Iran, Middle East & North Korea for those. So at most it'd cause a very short term (day, few days) downturn that'd be a good buying opportunity. If there is heat, then defense contractor stocks could benefit (Lockheed, etc). However, they may have already been bought up by then, especially if there's any warning.

     

    Specifically:

     

    I don't see how Ukraine could turn into a whole cold war. Neither Russia nor US are on the edge at each other, so both would work to make sure it doesn't. There isn't a huge block of countries on either side ready to posture joining into war, which is what the cold war included.

     

    It well may be partially US backing of rebels who want more Western ties. CIA does all sorts of things.

     

    It's an important political event to try to help stop the bloodshed. It's not a big stock investing event. Except maybe locally to Ukraine's market.

     

    If you want to get in on a bigger rewards, shifting scene, Brazil seems to be the focus. Tack's listed suggestions. I'm going to start keeping Brazil's ETFs on my screen, so I can get a feel for how it's doing.
    21 Feb, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    I like Brazil, it's a big beef country but didn't someone say it's turning communist not too long ago, about nationalizing some industry or am I getting it confused with some other country? XD
    21 Feb, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    Don't want to get into any extended debate on Ukraine, since I, too, concur it's not an investment issue, but I'll offer one thought to counter a view I've seen expressed a few times.

     

    The U.S. is not up to any intrigue in the Ukraine, in particular with this Administration, which is wholly disinterested and passive in world affairs. However, the Russians, Putin especially, would love any pretense to be able to roll the tanks into Kiev to "quell civil war" (translation: es-establish Ukraine, and its vast agriculture, as a Soviet satellite state).

     

    So, if anyone wonders who has the incentive and might be engaging in machinations to have the Ukraine spin out of control, look toward Moscow, not Washington.
    21 Feb, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie, Tack,

     

    Good point that it's a Russian angling to increase it's circle of influence that's the starting point here. I didn't mean my comment to imply that the US is actively trying to trigger anything (it's worded poorly). At most the west may be underground trying to be supportive of those who don't want to be a Russian satellite. Then again, I'll contradict myself on that. It's accurate that this admin is passive. They couldn't figure out what to do in Egypt, nor has figured out how to support Syrian non-Al-quada connected rebels, all issues with bigger impact... so Ukraine would get even less actions.
    21 Feb, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Ukraine is not an issue. China is a potential issue with their credit situation.
    21 Feb, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Why would China's credit situation be an issue? Their internal credit is endless funded by their own central bank, as ours is by the Fed. And, they have no international dollar exposure, as a debtor.
    21 Feb, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4427) | Send Message
     
    Notice the long bond is holding like a rock here. OH I get it -- thats the realms of fearful small investors hiding in bonds.

     

    I don't think so.
    21 Feb, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    As inflationary pressures are MIA, why would the long bond move?
    21 Feb, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting Factset factoid about earnings reports...

     

    .
    FactSet’s John Butters says:

     

    "For companies that have reported actual EPS below the mean EPS estimate for Q4 2013, the average drop in the price of the stock two days before the earnings report through two days after the earnings report has been 2.2%. This percentage drop in price is nearly equal to the five-year average of 2.3% for companies that have reported actual EPS below the mean estimate. There has been little difference in the market reaction to upside earnings surprises for Q4 as well. "

     

    .
    So market is acting as usual about earnings reports misses and meets.
    21 Feb, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What's happening with (MU) today? Down over 3.5% and I don't see news on it.
    21 Feb, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    relax --:) its simple profit taking after making new highs this week.. and its also an options expiration day , quirky things can happen on a day like today .

     

    take a look at the daily chart it can get back to its 50 day MA,, 23 - 23.50 - IF it does get there -- i may add.
    21 Feb, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Options expiration day! That's the mover that I wasn't aware of. There was a plunge mid day, maybe a computer.

     

    .
    Someday I'll sort out how that works. If it's short covering on a rising stock, it flashes up even faster. So, can't picture yet what makes it go down on options covering...?
    21 Feb, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Getting closer to time for Emerging Market buy-in?

     

    .
    "Still, emerging market debt and equity continues to be sold. In fact, outflows from EM equities over the past four weeks have risen to 2.2% of AUM - just shy of the 3% level which signals a contrarian "buy" signal, says BAML."
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Feb, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5293) | Send Message
     
    The EM charts are a bit firmer but i don't see any real "turn" there yet..

     

    Never EZ to pick the bottom, so if one really has interest there its time to nibble as the sentiment is still so bad , it has to be viewed as a contrarian signal..
    21 Feb, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13552) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    The issues I listed have been showing better behavior and volumes, of late, so I am slowly adding, even as the overall market is a tougher call.
    21 Feb, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This chapter is getting long... so here's a new one to move onto!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Feb, 03:50 PM Reply Like
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