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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #6 227 comments
    Feb 21, 2014 3:48 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!!

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #6. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog.

    .

    Links

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great!:
    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (227)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome to the new chapter 6!

     

    .
    If you're enjoying the exchange of ideas... please invite other SAs who've ideas you'd like to hear. I'm finding I'm a bit shy about reaching out to others (I know, silly)... yet the more voices, the more ideas will pop up that can give all of us ideas!!

     

    .
    Question: Did we break through upward resistance and move past a likely soon correction? Looks that way to me.
    21 Feb, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    L,
    nope , S & p is still hanging around the old high 1848 - but it has not broken thru..
    21 Feb, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Tonight I read retail trading volume is the highest in 4 years. Penny stock volume has spiked. However we're supposed to believe this market is "hated".

     

    People who say that should look not at the (SPX) but at the (IBB). Looking at the (SPX) tells you nothing in indentifying froth and speculation.

     

    So there is "zero" euphoria or speculative froth? Looked at (Tsla) or a number of other Nasdaq charts lately?

     

    Pot stocks -- the drug that is - are going wild. I suppose these are sober institutions buying these.
    21 Feb, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @M
    What's wrong with Marijuana Stocks? I am going to quote Warren Buffett here on tobacco: "It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It's addictive. And there's fantastic brand loyalty." Except in this case Marijuana sells for $20~$100.

     

    The thing is which one of these Marijuana stocks is a winner? Some are just run by potheads! Anyone have any ideas?

     

    CANV, CBIS, EDXC, ERBB, FSPM, GRNH, GWP.L, GWPRF, HEMP, HSCC, MDBX, MJNA, MWIP, NVLX, PHOT, RFMK, RIGH, TRTC, XCHC

     

    Actually, I wouldn't mind opening up a Marijuana shop myself if it's legal. XD You don't have to worry about not having customers. You grow them, they will come. Fantastic business model! X_X
    21 Feb, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    I'd say froth in a few narrow sectors and stocks... isn't euphoria for buying stocks. To me this market is in a middle between dread and euphoria.

     

    .
    Everyone I've talked to... their reaction is "really you're buying, be careful." They themselves either left their prior money in or reduced it... but none are adding. We're talking about people who've been in the market over many years.

     

    .
    That said, your shorting the speculative might make sense. That's a traders game, & I have don't have experience.

     

    .
    I got out of Nasdaq because it's got so much of that. Missing a climb, but didn't want to be in when the music stopped on (TSLA), (http://bit.ly/175Prww) etc..

     

    .
    Biotech is hot with all the new scientific info useable for development -- technology techniques, DNA. It's a growing, developing area. And now that you mention it -- I think I'm buying in on the next dip.

     

    .
    Retail in the market now, include a lot of more aggressive, and traders.

     

    .
    So not surprised to see run ups in "optimistic" stocks. Pot stocks are in that category. Market's high. May well correct this year, but not top & big crash. So that's my 2 cents.
    21 Feb, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @LoMaH

     

    Please don't forget to recommend your pick for Biotech stocks. I like them too. It's just that it takes a lot of time to do research on each one. I was thinking buying Biotech ETF (IBB, XBI, FBT, BBH, PBE, BIB) but don't know which one to go for. Seriously, they are all biotech etfs but their returns are so different.
    21 Feb, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Please tell me you are kidding. Please.
    21 Feb, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie

     

    I'll stick with an ETF and take less return than picking, with less risk.

     

    I want in on the growth, but not to be a lottery bid on individual companies. ETFs may pick their selections very differently.

     

    When i go through the ETFs, I'll let you know!
    21 Feb, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @LoMaH
    Thanks. XD

     

    @M
    Why would I be kidding? Life extension through any means has been popular since antiquity. There were rumors of Earls bathed in young girls blood and emperors went mad consuming mercury.
    21 Feb, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie

     

    A problem with marj. business model is the customers themselves! Drug users, which plenty will be, aren't the most reliable.

     

    If you research... how did the businesses do when it was legalized in Netherlands?
    21 Feb, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @LoMaH
    Netherlands? Sorry I don't know. Please tell me what you found out.

     

    I base my entire assumption on the Marijuana trade on the failed war on drugs and the bloodshed on the boarder cities with Mexico. I believe there is a great demand because people are killing each other for it and warlords around the world are growing them to fund wars. If it could fund wars, it must be profitable that's what I think, but I could be very wrong so please tell me what you think.
    21 Feb, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie

     

    Netherlands made Marijuana not prosecuted many years ago. http://bit.ly/1f6lNcZ

     

    Drugs are big money. Partly because they're illegal so customers have to pay for the risks, whatever's asked. That bloodshed is part of the business model. Would look very different with a soft, legal drug. There's a town / county in CA that's a huge growing market. I wouldn't want to deal with most of the regular customers.
    21 Feb, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Marijuana & Tobacco
    Here's an idea -- invest in (MO) or (PM) or (RAI) cigarette companies before they buy up those little pot companies. They didn't climb as much because cig sales are slowing. All with 5+% dividends.

     

    GrowLife (OTCQB:PHOT) sells products used to grow pot. It's in a steep runup, with -.02EPS, so a betting stock.
    23 Feb, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    LOMH,

     

    While I don't think there is a large play in the pot business, i do think if/when there is some major growth the big boys such as (MO) will get a piece of the action. It's happening with the big beer and the craft breweries.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/ko5...
    23 Feb, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cwinn

     

    I agree. It's easy to grow, and only expensive now because it's illegal. It's so early in the game, it's impossible to tell which companies will sell something that the big boys will buy out. Even a good product now (such as indoor lighting), can easily be replaced by another upstart later.

     

    The link didn't go to beer... I'm not surprised that craft breweries are getting overtaken. Business has been like this a long time now...
    23 Feb, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On Pot -
    if legalized, good investments may be companies with interlock devices (drunk driving), or a blood test for marijuana. There'll be those who use it at home safely, and those who drive with it.
    25 Feb, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3586) | Send Message
     
    (PG) might benefit (Febreze). :) I really hate that smell (of pot)...
    25 Feb, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I will simply state as i have in the past what u continue to mention is not representative of the "equity market" and the SPX.

     

    specifically referring to (TSLA) and now suggesting to use the biotech sector (IBB) as a proxy for the market is disingenuous at best..

     

    it appears u wish to continue to use those examples of what u call frothy to make a "bear' case for the entire market and that paints a picture that u may 'want' to see but in reality isn't there at all.. If u keep telling yourself that its true-- over & over , then i guess to you it must be true.. For the rest of us that isnt the case..

     

    I'd rather one look at the charts of (MSFT) (CSCO) (INTC) (CVX) (RIG) (ESV) (FCX) (BAC) (JPM) (GS) (C) (MU) ( i can go on & on) and they are all selling with PE's UNDER the S & P present multiple..

     

    They paint a picture of what the equity market is all about..

     

    and mentioning Marijuana stocks in the same paragraph as the S & P as you have---- borders on blasphemy-- u can't be serious ..
    You are operating on a different "plane' , one that i'm not familiar with to suggest this stuff..
    & it certainly can't be taken seriously by anyone that is investing in an attempt to create wealth in the markets..
    21 Feb, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    These examples strengthen the case for a correction. It's been stated by others there is nothing but fear and hatred of the bull market. There are pockets of froth, IMO.

     

    I've told you i am short both C and GS. I believe on the next correction - they will both aggressively sell off. I believe they are extremely levered up with risk assets, as they always do when given unlimited credit.

     

    This is a QE effect. QE may not affect the real economy, but it sure has encouraged speculation by these institutions. I believe there will be consequences to the unwinding, if only for a time.

     

    If you believe there has been zero speculative effect from the QE programs, we are on completely different pages.

     

    The whole market multiple has overshot as well,IMO. A 17 PE is no longer cheap. Buying at 17 and hoping to sell at 25 is a greater fool theory.
    21 Feb, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @M
    Do you have anything solid other than your gut feelings? I don't feel good about the market neither but "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" and no one can afford to stand on the sideline too long. XD

     

    btw what's your time horizon on C & GS correction?
    21 Feb, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    "and no -one can afford to stay on the sidelines".

     

    Exactly. That is fear of missing out, and That is the prevailing emotion out there!
    21 Feb, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    we are on completely different pages ..
    21 Feb, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    FG, will you bail on C and GS if they crack the 200 day? (not far away I'll add). At what point does risk control enter in?
    21 Feb, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @Macro
    Oh my! It's that bad already. Thanks Macro! I will be sure to keep an eye on them. XD
    21 Feb, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    MACRO

     

    Bingo !!
    21 Feb, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    My position in both is at lower prices than the 200 day MA , but if they weren't i would offer this advice to anyone with a LT view.

     

    A trader will use the daily chart to make their decisions , a LT investor will use a weekly or a monthly chart to determine when"risk control" as u put it, becomes reality.. The question that is triggered at that time is "has the overall Backdrop changed ? and are the fundamentals in the stock still in place. weekly gyrations that trigger spasms from traders happen every day , no LT investor that wishes to make money is shaken "out" every time the market sneezes or the traders have a spasm.

     

    So, a LT investor sets a backdrop of the conditions that they find themselves in,

     

    my backdrop : we are in a bull market, so a correction that many want to label a disaster will presents opportunity for those with more than a week or two outlook on the market ..

     

    using your two examples,, First, the fundamentals for both are solidly in place and have a very good chance of improving dramatically in the next few quarters, possibly years , but one step at a time.
    Bottom line: nothing has changed except trader sentiment..

     

    Second , we are still in a bull market

     

    Third, take a peek at the weekly chart of both stocks u mentioned ----they are both in uptrends

     

    While one can surely make money as u suggest when they aggressively sell off as u mention may occur. A LT investor doesn't get whipsawed by playing that game and timing the market ..

     

    So for the crowd that continues ( not saying u are) to doubt and thereby constantly requesting those that have a bullish slant DEFEND their positions -

     

    I simply say they , they are the same folks that have a convoluted view of things , bring a negative slant on EVERY piece of data presented and have been left for DEAD.. But now wish to blame everyone on the planet for their mistakes BUT themselves..

     

    That sentiment is so evident on blogs and articles here on SA it really must be depressing even too those that have that mindset , hence my calling it convoluted.

     

    U wish to bring up C & GS here, maybe we need to turn the discussion to the aggressive (your words not mine) shorts put on in NFLX,TSLA, and all of the others that went decidedly against you ..

     

    One thing that is very apparent lately in the discussions in blogs and articles on SA, anyone with a "bullish" tone is always asked to DEFEND their thoughts , ideas, ,, while the naysayers that have been left for dead are never questioned about their ill fated strategies.. Maybe its time to start turning the discussion to their "mishap of an investment strategy" rather than listening to them bark at the folks that have made some good decisions lately..

     

    Once again - i am not saying you are in that crowd ... but i will follow up by saying if the shoe fits.......

     

    If you are calling for a correction that's great , so have i,, i am still bullish , please take whatever position u wish .. I have stated mine .
    22 Feb, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Well I have fundamental reasons to short the banks too. Every time the fed has halted QE,long bonds have rallied( confounding the endless and wrong calls for a bond bear market) Have many have been wrong on that?

     

    Long bonds have likely bottomed and are rallying. Flattening of the yield curve is not a positive for the banks.

     

    Tsla I am not short. I covered before earnings at a scratch. Nflx I am down maybe $2. Others like LNKD and twtr I am doing fine.

     

    Bull markets can end and do so sector by sector. Banks are clearly struggling here. Perhaps for an unknown reason. We will see.
    22 Feb, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Are there typical sectors that lead a downturn? Are the sectors different for crashes, and corrections?
    22 Feb, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Yep, lots of folks wrong about bonds because they had/have a completely faulty understanding of QE. Much of the latter half of 2013 was spent in a kneejerk reaction to tapering talk that rates "must" go higher. This was and is false, so the bond selling just provided value for those who could see it.

     

    After a period of readjustment, bond prices will re-assume equilibrium and future rates will be dictated, as always, by credit demand, not QE.
    22 Feb, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M,
    I can also add another defensive strategy --if one is really nervous about their position in Financials.(I do realize many are sitting on huge profits from their run.)

     

    they can also deploy a simple hedge by adding a "put" position on an individual name . simple insurance to pick up a profit from a short term swing while holding on to the position fro the LT. That requires market timing and a trader hat and so is not for everyone..

     

    Or if they are inclined to turn it into more income.. sell an upside call . I usually like to do the latter when the stock is "short term" overbought and prime for a setback ....

     

    Simple examples for those that may be more nervous now..
    22 Feb, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Puts can be expensive, if one intends to hold, anyway. Better to place a bear put spread, with the lower-strike put sale partially financing the put buy.
    22 Feb, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Tack,where's the fear.............

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1bXoBz0
    22 Feb, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Apparently, somebody must be afraid. SA is littered with commentary predicting everything from 10% corrections to 70% collapses.

     

    Look, you're net short, so you're all set.
    22 Feb, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    You forgot my long canned goods.

     

    So -- SA authors seeking attention, writing negative articles, is supposed to forever prevent corrections?

     

    Whats next, using zero hedge negative articles as a reason to be bullish?

     

    Neither is representative.
    23 Feb, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Some good points. Getting on the same page... it helps to know you expect the downturn to be a correction of some kind... not a big overwhelming crash.

     

    How are you determining the market's PE?
    21 Feb, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    I use TTM, which is 17.6 or so. Fwd estimates are analyst fantasy. I don't trust my money to analysts.

     

    On GS and C, they have already broken down by my estimation, below the 50 day MA. Why would anyone buy them?

     

    On their exposure, I go with experience and the chart, since try to interpret a GS balance sheet. Good luck. Every time there is over leverage -- and you will never convince me there isn't after a 5 year liquidity driven bull market -- these guys are involved. Every time.

     

    You can't change human nature. The Fed wanted asset prices higher. You don't achieve that without leveraged speculation at some point.

     

    The catalyst is the Fed is pulling back and so is china. Let's see how it plays out for a bit.

     

    Time and price horizons are for fools, IMO. Who knows? The market will decide those things.

     

    On the tech stuff, I am trying to stick with shorts that have already broken and ceased to be market leaders. That would be (LNKD) (Amzn) -- added today -- (twtr) and (Nflx) trying to pick a top on that one.
    21 Feb, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M,
    Since we are just coming off of Record earnings in the S & P , i have to ask

     

    So if you wont use the "analyst fantasy" forward PE estimate and you are so concerned of the present 17 PE ratio,, what are your estimates for S & P earnings this year.

     

    If yours are lower than the fantasy numbers of $119-$121, what prompts the decline in earnings..? perhaps u are saying we are in jeopardy of a recession in ''14.. ?
    22 Feb, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fear

     

    Do you feel comfortable using forward analyst's PEs? They feel risky to me, since they're based on companies' estimates and general guessing.
    22 Feb, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I use them as a guide , and put them in perspective to all of the other things that are happening around us..

     

    One has to start somewhere , so its why I ask the question for those that express concern , what their estimate is..

     

    Its always EZ to sit , criticize and poke holes in a particular set of data, in this case "earnings' . especially when an alternative to that is seldom offered..

     

    the last time i asked that same question here on SA, the reply was $50 for S & P earnings in '14 .

     

    needless to say i ended the discussion --- LOL
    22 Feb, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Well, one year they might be flat Y/Y, hence trailing is more conservative. Come on, analysts are the most overpaid , useless group in the market. Better as a contrary indicator, especially GS analysts who play rope a dope. Tell you you buy when they are selling, and vs versa.
    23 Feb, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fear and others here have said they ignore analysts' ratings. Forward P/E is done differently. How are they rope a doping it? Or why? My concern is they're not very thoughtful at looking forward... or company's are up playing or down playing their future earnings potential... so it's not accurate.
    23 Feb, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My first step at getting more active on my portfolio, I was looking at my IBM stock to sell. Seemed like a high point. A little pushing for what it was worth. $215

     

    Every single analyst was positive on it. So I didn't sell. Every single one? It went down. Finally came up again a few months later, and I sold, $210. Hasn't been near that price since. (That I've noticed.)
    23 Feb, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M,
    Ok, u believe they will be flat (107) , existing PE of 17.5

     

    i believe we will see $117 - 120 .

     

    existing PE of 17.5 and a forward pe of 15

     

    lets see what the market tells us going forward..
    and if the crummy analysts get it right or not..

     

    methinks u have an axe to grind with GS ,, by your commentary, i find that comment interesting..

     

    many folks have had axes to grind with the banks and let their emotions take over. and they didnt buy (BAC) @ 10 (JPM) @ 36 and (GS) @ 120 because of their extreme hatred for them & others due to the crisis..

     

    I also find it a "key" in many arguments given by the "bears" , (not saying u are, but if the shoe fits.....)

     

    An example that i use to tell people to check their emotions at the door when it comes to investing..

     

    Those that did just that and used an open mind are doing quite fine.. They also seem to be the same investors that use the crummy analysts to formulate their strategy going forward..

     

    :)
    24 Feb, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    just to clarify, using analysts to get a "feel"for the total earnings of the S & P is different from analysts piling on or off of a stock.. Many have "agenda's" when it comes to an individual stock,,

     

    However using analysts to get a 'starting point" as to where the entire S & P earnings will be is quite a different matter..

     

    I can also add , find a report or outfit or individual that has a good track record and follow them them .. I call them winners ....

     

    and then there are these :

     

    as i have stated before follow those that have a good track record and have the story correct , rather than those that continually pound the table and have the story wrong.

     

    I always ask the same question when searching for ideas & data.

     

    Why would anyone follow an author or a blog here on SA that has been filled with ideas , misconceptions and convoluted thoughts,has a proven track record of being incorrect while still pounding the table on their ill fated arguments..

     

    a reference point -- zerohedge and tons of others

     

    24 Feb, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F&G

     

    You consider analysts crummy when it comes to stock ratings. But you're comfortable with them on forward earnings? How do you wind up with a lower PE for next year 15, than the TTM of 17.5?
    24 Feb, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Allow me to lob a hand grenade into this debate, just to cause trouble. :-)

     

    Analysts are near useless for all their endeavors, almost without distinction. Their predictions have no causative powers.

     

    For me, assessing earnings is far simpler. Unless I can see a change in economic conditions that will suddenly see everyone buying less of everything, or I can see some reason why profits on expanding sales will be less, not more, then, I assume that whatever price the market attached to such sales and earnings this year will be higher next year.

     

    Far too much time in spent in investment circles, and here in SA, making predictions and too little time thinking about and/or explaining why conditions will suddenly be different. From my own experience, economies --and the performance of companies within them -- continue to expand until such time as identifiable impediments arise or until the time that some "black swan" appears that is so huge that it alters behavioral patterns on a dime.

     

    Otherwise, quibbling over SPX eps estimates is a waste of time.
    24 Feb, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Of course it went down. Analysts are (almost) Never negative. They don't work for you.
    24 Feb, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    T,
    I consider myself blown up by your salvo -LOL

     

    Enjoy the day :)

     

    at the moment the S & P just hit a new intraday high..
    24 Feb, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    L,
    yes the forward PE is around 15 because IF we get the $120 in earnings - S & P 1840 / 120 = 15.3.....

     

    24 Feb, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro,

     

    A newbie question - what's TTM? Do other's reading, use forward estimate? To me, they feel like too much guesswork to be useful.

     

    "already broken and ceased to be market leaders."
    So that's how you're picking and timing. Good to know.

     

    BTW, if you put the stock symbols in bracket's, a mouse over makes it easy for others to know what the stocks are.
    21 Feb, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I use forward earnings when I have no reason to believe they will be wrong.

     

    Analysts follow the heard so they extrapolate the past onto the future.

     

    IMO in 2014 earnings will be measure well by extrapolating from 2013.
    22 Feb, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair & Steve,

     

    So you're both comfortable using forward guidance as a starting point...! Thanks!
    23 Feb, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I NEVER trust analysts they are herd followers...

     

    but... if my macro opinions agree with them,
    there is no reason for their trend to be off.
    25 Feb, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Trailing twelve month earnings.
    21 Feb, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Ohhhh. I'm usually good at the "guess the acronym" game. But not this time. I used to work at IBM; it was a specialty there.

     

    So basically current averages are 17.6? Question is are the low ones, for good reason, and the solid stocks are now on high side?

     

    So far, we seem to be in a trading range.... while the time catches up to the PEs...
    23 Feb, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BDC Buzz who SA posts with expertise in BDCs -- commented:

     

    "I have been slowly transitioning my portfolio from high-yield to high-return because I like special dividends and stock appreciation on top of regular yields because those returns are at lower tax rates and generally higher return overall."

     

    "looking to start a position in HTGC and GBDC as well as any others that come out of my latest total return series "
    (Posted at bottom: http://bit.ly/MK9Yn1)

     

    Any thoughts?
    21 Feb, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @LoMaH
    I think we should listen to Marco. If GS & C come down, they would probably bring the whole market down with them so changing portfolio holding from one stock to another doesn't make a lot sense right now. (That is if his theory pans out)
    I believe it's time to look for a short just like Marco suggested or FAZ for hum..."protection". LOL
    21 Feb, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    maybe the financials will lead the market down in a correction , or perhaps what we are seeing is "rotation" and the leadership will now show in other sectors that have lagged i.e energy..

     

    Financials have had a great run shouldnt they be susceptible to profit taking , what's funny is that if the financials were rocketing ahead and at all time highs and on a non stop trip to the moon , the naysayers would say they were in a bubble !!!
    This cant be sustained look at the valuations oh my !

     

    So when they come down BUT i will add, still show value ,, its now said they are breaking down and will take the entire market down with it..

     

    I can't stop laughing ..
    22 Feb, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    I believe if financial was go down that would mean less investments, less investments mean lower stock prices. This could just be profit taking or rotation either way I feel if money flows out of financials then something is wrong or maybe is just something wrong with financial then the circular logic continues.

     

    Laugh! It's funny. the market seriously feels like as if there is a bear driving a pink minivan around a circle. Nevertheless, I think there is a bear and it's moving, not very fast and it's very silly, but still, I feel its better to keep an eye on it.
    22 Feb, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    "I like special dividends and stock appreciation on top of regular yields because those returns are at lower tax rates".

     

    Special divs from BDCs are at lower tax rates? I can understand LT capital gains can incur lower tax rates, but special divs from BDCs?
    22 Feb, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Astarr66

     

    What's the 66 stand for?

     

    I'd guess it was lower taxes on LT cap, and more return by getting special divs.

     

    So your investments need to do well to cover the high rental rates for the World Cup in Brazil? Do you speak Portuguese? Three years of Spanish & I speak nada.
    23 Feb, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    "I'd guess it was lower taxes on LT cap, and more return by getting special divs."

     

    Yes, only explanation that makes sense. Thanks.

     

    66 is DOB. I am fluent in spanish, having lived and worked 12 years years in Latin America. I manage Sales in LA for a large US corporation. I will go to Brazil with 3 friends to see the World Cup, so we will share the crazy rental expenses....
    24 Feb, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » astarr

     

    I'd thought it notable that the SA resident BDC expert was changing his investment focus even if within BDCs... for whatever that info was worth :).

     

    "fluent in spanish"
    Very cool. Well, sounds like a great trip! Looking forward to hearing about it :). 66- so we aren't very far apart on our investing "horizon"...

     

    With your years in LA - any thoughts on Venezuela's situation?
    24 Feb, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie,

     

    I don't think the whole market will tank if those two stocks do. What about all the investors who aren't in them? Maybe that sector will go down, but there's all the other sectors.

     

    I have about 1/2 my money in. I'm not sure when to put the rest in. But in the long run if I put it in now, then there's 20% down... it doesn't matter! Especially if I go into yielding stocks that pay while I wait for the correction to recover.

     

    Macro isn't calling for a major crash that can take time to come back from. Just for a correction. He's a trader, at least in part. For that he pays attention for corrections... that long term investors don't worry about. And you said the catch "if his theory pans out." We're all working with theories. Long term investing skips the short term theories.

     

    Meanwhile, I can't help it but wait a bit in this trading range we're in to see if we're going to break out higher or correct. Can't help myself. Meanwhile, when I see value bargain stocks for long term buys I will go for those.
    21 Feb, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Good Luck. XD
    22 Feb, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What stocks are considered "cyclic"?
    22 Feb, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    A definition

     

    http://bit.ly/1fI1cwE

     

    This is somewhat dated but it lists some individual names....
    " retail "wasnt mentioned there , it is cylclical in nature.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1fI...
    22 Feb, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cyclic stocks

     

    ... so it's not seasonal. It's some industries are more sensitive to economic expansion and contraction. Like auto, residential construction, transportation, oil services and mining.

     

    Since they take so long to recover from after a recession... that's why certain sectors lead & trail during a recovery. And are indicators leading up to a crash. Thanks!
    23 Feb, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    My thoughts on the present market, and things to ponder..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Feb, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    I knew I saw this somewhere! ;)

     

    http://bit.ly/1haEMrv
    22 Feb, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie,

     

    Lol. Those aren't very coordinated bears! In pink tutus... don't seem threatening... More like they've drunk & partied hard.
    22 Feb, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    An interesting article on Biotechs..

     

    Regardless of what one thinks of how they are priced now.. I believe this is one of the macro trends that will evolve into something that LT investors can score large gains over time..

     

    http://bit.ly/MOrO8j

     

    The "big players" are established companies that offer huge growth opportunities. (CELG) & (GLD) are my favorites.
    The growth story on CELG is nothing short of remarkable..
    22 Feb, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fear

     

    Lol, you listed a gold stock :). But that's not what you meant for biotech! Though I've heard silver is a good antibiotic.
    23 Feb, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    L, ,

     

    Sorry i meant (GILD) Gilead :)
    23 Feb, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    The difference between traders & investors is….

     

    Traders are worried about what the market will do in the next 24 hours.

     

    Investors see market downturns as opportunities to load up on their favorite stocks. They don't worry at all about the short term.

     

    Ten years from now, you can be sure of one thing. The market will be up.

     

    Twenty years from now, you will know that buying great companies and holding them for the long haul was very financially rewarding. If you buy quality stocks, they will have certainly tripled or more in a twenty year period.

     

    Hormel (HRL) is a solid company with products that will be produced long after I'm gone. Who doesn't like bacon?? I bought some shares Friday.

     

    Pepsi (PEP) is at an excellent price point right now. This is a company that is growing, selling their products all over the world. You could even say it's an emerging market play. Luckily for the US, people all over the world want to buy our products. I'm buying Pepsi to hold it for the long haul.

     

    Medtronic (MDT) is another great company. They make healthcare products, the PE is low & the earnings are increasing. I'm a buyer.

     

    United Healthcare (UNH) has a low PE, great earnings and is at a good entry point to buy. Another one just added to my portfolio.

     

    You could say I'm very excited about the future. If there is any market downturn, I'll double up my purchases. In fact, I do hope we see the market "correct" again. I made over $10,000 on the last dip. Hard cash, when I sold (GMCR), (GALE) and (AMBA).

     

    Turn your portfolio into a machine that makes you money. You can do this by investing in companies that pay you dividends, and have growth potential. Every month, I have to keep looking for places to put the money my portfolios are generating.

     

    It's a great way to spend my time ; )
    23 Feb, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF,

     

    Great to hear from you... your format of one stock per paragraph, is easy to read :). What makes (UNH) & (http://bit.ly/M0GHRr) a good entry point? Both are close to 52 weeks high? Long term of course, it doesn't matter.
    23 Feb, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH

     

    "Both are close to 52 weeks high? Long term of course, it doesn't matter."

     

    You sure about that ?
    23 Feb, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Why has there been a rotation back into bonds? Fed will be raising their rate for bank borrowing, likely by next year. So rates in general will tend to rise...
    23 Feb, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    There's been a rotation back toward yield instruments because they were oversold in the hysteria about tapering. Raising rates a year from now, even if it occurs, is a long way off and rife with uncertainties.
    23 Feb, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    "IF" the market gets the idea that Fed will be raising rates in 2015... will we see the same immediate hysteria selling that we saw in summer 2013?
    23 Feb, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Anything is possible, I suppose. It would depend on context.

     

    My recommendation would be to have yield investments, presently, weighted toward floating rates, convertibles and the higher-yielding instruments. Low-yielding investment-grade paper, especially of longer duration, is at the greatest risk.
    23 Feb, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    So your take is that I'm worrying too soon. Or can mitigate by buying floatables and things that may tank in an oversell reaction, but will come right back when rates normalize... and meanwhile, pay good yield.

     

    I'm not so sure. So far, when the Fed's put out a mouthpiece, they've meant it. Even though the market hasn't immediately believed them. Whoever the mouthpiece was this time, talked about moving on ZIRP sooner rather than later. As soon as the market's catch wind, the media will play on it... and the reaction will happen.

     

    Even if I can buy now, I'd rather wait for the reaction sell off, if it's going to be by midyear.

     

    Anyone else have thoughts on this?

     

    I haven't been seen commentary in SA or media about this... which puzzles me.
    23 Feb, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    I don't make guesses about these things. It's no different than market timing on the equity side. I always keep a balanced portfolio between common, preferred and debt issues (currently 55%, 25%, 20%). When conditions appear likely to change, or begin to change, I alter the ration, but I never abandon the three sectors.

     

    When mass hysteria broke out over tapering, I swooped in after a couple months of selling and started adding back various yield-oriented issues, especially muni funds, mortgage REITs, and commercial REITs that appeared oversold and undervalued. The result of this approach has been the maintenance of substantial yields and a portfolio that is up 4% for the year, while the SPX remains slightly red.

     

    My advice remains to make careful adjustments, not to flee in one direction or the other. The world always confounds the best laid plans.
    23 Feb, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    Thanks. Basically, you react as the market is moving rather than trying to pre-figure it. So during the obvious tapering sell-off, you got out as it went down, then slowly got back in. Once in, there isn't cash to buy unless it's through rotation. Meanwhile gathering interest until the actual, real, point of shift in the market.

     

    I've always done well kind of pre-planning which way the bond market was headed (it used to move slowly & distinctly.) So that's my automatic inclination... But good concepts here to consider!

     

    On confounding... the Fed announcements throughout last year provided that well for me...
    24 Feb, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    In general, yes, react to actual things that you see happening, reflected in data, not arcane predictions and punditry. Underweight volatility on the downswings and overweight it on the upswings.

     

    And, yes again, I do not like cash sitting around uselessly, most especially in an era where cash balances get paid 0.2%. I try to keep funds gainfully employed. That said, it seems that through various maturities, options expiries, etc., I always seem to have at least ~10% cash coming available.
    24 Feb, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    According to CNN, Venezuela is on fire now. Ukraine hasn't settled down yet and we have another country on fire. This is going to be interesting, now that the Sochi Olympics is over. Would the Russians make a move? I don't know... but is this a good time to hold the dollar? >_<
    23 Feb, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    It's noise that only a goldbug would embrace..
    23 Feb, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie,

     

    I don't trade Forex. Venezuela isn't a big enough influence to effect anything much. Politically, economically. So it's sad to see problems, but it doesn't worry the market.

     

    Ukraine involving Russia is bigger politically. But no expectation of it blowing into something bigger.
    24 Feb, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    (COH) is a good buy today, I'm buying some tomorrow
    23 Feb, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    What's the rush? Coh continues to lose vs the broad market, it had a lousy earnings report, the next earnings report isn't until late April and the p/e is higher than its growth rate. Only if you're absolutely positive earnings will beat current estimates is it a good buy - but you may as well wait until you're closer to earnings.

     

    Fashion trends are a funny thing. Once a brand loses its cachet it's difficult to get back.

     

    A cheaper stock with a better growth rate that has recently been whacked is gnc. That's my preference if you want to pick bottoms.
    23 Feb, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I don't care about next earnings, its a well managed strong company with a good future 3-5 years out and a great brand at a cheap price.

     

    In fact I hope they are terrible and it goes to 30 after I buy it... I'll just buy a ton more.
    24 Feb, 06:00 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    You hope it goes to $30 after you buy it? Really?
    24 Feb, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    As long as the underlying business hasn't changed and that is why the price has dropped sure I would...

     

    In 2012 (CMG) started dropping, I bought a position at ~300, It then dropped to 250 and I tripled my position nothing about the company changed from 2011 to 2012 only that now it cost half.
    24 Feb, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Yair, I almost feel like I've had an influence on you lol!

     

    I bought (COH) awhile back. 50 shares the first time, then another 50 shares later. If held for a couple of years, it is bound to double or perhaps triple….Coach is a respected brand worldwide. The Chinese like it a lot ; )

     

    I was trying to buy some French/Italian stocks, with the Chinese consumer in mind. However the ones I wanted, Fendi, Dolce & Gabbana, Chanel, etc. are not traded in US markets. I would recommend buying high end perfume/handbag stocks because the Chinese what those brands. In the next ten years, these luxury brands will certainly go up because of that.

     

    I like high end French cosmetics & perfumes the best myself.
    24 Feb, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    now that's what I like to do! Buy more of a great brand when it goes even lower.
    24 Feb, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    This is a tried and true long term, dividend growth investor move. And it works, every time.
    24 Feb, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome Dancing Diva!

     

    Yair,
    Why buy now instead of waiting to see whether it's coming back? Is it to get in now in case it goes up with the earnings report?

     

    Dancing Diva
    Great points in my view. On cachet I've got the same a hesitation. I remember from a year or more ago, hearing Coach had lost it's edge, & I wasn't watching the market at the time - just a random news story. My mom & her generation loves them (when she finds one at Marshalls). Otherwise, when I look in dept stores, solid quality, but they haven't stayed as in trend it seems.

     

    BSF,
    The foreign market, Chinese upscale, is a good point. I think I'd rather wait and see if they can pull it off & start some upward edge. But excellent idea to look for growth from those markets.

     

    BTW Yair, you probably already know but... you're part of the world gets fashion trends at least 9 months, a year before US. Europe is ahead of the US and it heads your way, way before it gets here.
    24 Feb, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I've said this before!!

     

    I don't think short term ever....

     

    If I see a good price for a company, meaning I believe I will have a high rate of return I try to limit myself to above 15% I will buy that company.

     

    I hold almost zero value to some quarterly earning report.

     

    With COH I see a strong brand with competent management, in a sector with a ton of tail winds. A high margin business... and I'm pretty sure its going to have 15% growth in earnings for the next few years.

     

    That to me means this company is cheap.
    25 Feb, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    BSF...

     

    Are there any other good brands you can think of that are publicly traded?

     

    D&G is private as is Chanel

     

    Fendi is interesting but its too expensive currently.
    25 Feb, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    Thanks for explaining.

     

    You see sector tail winds as a contributor - that makes sense of why it's a buy. It's 25% down? So at least 15% up is a reasonable improvement.
    25 Feb, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH

     

    I think you misunderstood me, I'm talking about 15% EVERY YEAR for the next 10 years, I think at todays prices (COH) is that good I think (EZPW) will give me 20-25%.

     

    If at some point the company rallies and trade at a price in which I believe the next 10 years will only make me 6% I will sell, and buy another company which will make me 15%.
    26 Feb, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    I did misunderstand. Can you run through the FA that indicates to you that level of growth? I've been trying to learn more FA, and I've asked this before of investors but I usually get a very vague answer. I've seen that idea before, to look for over 15% annual return potential, and sell once it rallies enough to no longer have that potential, from solid SA investors that I've followed.
    26 Feb, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    Yair,

     

    i owned (COH) a while ago , I like the management there , they do pay a small div. I haven t pulled the trigger yet to get back in

     

    Its' oversold and at the bottom of its trading range ,,,

     

    I think you are on to something there,,
    23 Feb, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    @F&G

     

    Look at Friday's COH, there is a double top. I didn't realize you could see one on a 1 day chart. XD LOL
    23 Feb, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    looking at 1 day charts are for traders..

     

    If one is a LT investor a 1 day chart never comes up on their screen -- LOL

     

    more like daily , weekly and monthly -- :)
    24 Feb, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    So how did you wind up with 100% gain on your son's portfolio?? Do tell :). Was it since 2009, and part of that run up? (Plus picking wisely?)
    23 Feb, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3586) | Send Message
     
    August, 2009 is when I bought his initial stocks. (OHI) has been very kind, as well as (NEE) and (MAC). All dividends have been reinvested in the stock that paid it.
    23 Feb, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    http://on.wsj.com/1k0neic

     

    Good news for my short.
    23 Feb, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This SA author NY Trader, agrees with you:
    http://seekingalpha.co... , that some of Nasdaq is heavily overvalued, & will be popping.
    23 Feb, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    L,
    The problem with a lot of authors like these is that they try to be hero’s and attempt to call tops and bubbles , etc.. IMO, They have seen too many Nostradamus documentaries. :)

     

    many if not all that attempt to do that are taken to the woodshed and carried out in boxes screaming that their theories are right..

     

    While their theories may in fact be right in the long run , they fail to see the momentum that is running them over..

     

    I took a lesson form the last tech bubble. Its NOT necessary to be a hero and call the top, plenty of money can and will be made on the downside once the “bubble” if in fact one exists in a stock or a sector is burst and a downtrend if firmly in place.

     

    That simply isn't the case at the moment with stocks like (NFLX) (FB) (TSLA) (GILD) (CELG) or any others that he or others wish to call ‘bubbles” ..

     

    Actually i take serious issue with the word bubble being placed in the same sentence with the two biotech firms he mentions (GILD) ,, (CELG) - they are in fact selling at multiples that are in line with their earnings growth..

     

    The “price action” of the market tells the story for folks that wish to be hero’s

     

    so far today (NFLX) up $14,(FB) up $2.5 , (GILD) up $1.5 , (TSLA) up $6 etc,, etc,
    24 Feb, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fear,

     

    I ignored the word "bubble"... it's just there to get the article attention...

     

    The author himself says this could continue a while & that he's not calling it a top! He doesn't include (GILD) & (CELG) in the overvalued. It's a growth vs value chart, not over vs regular valued. He isn't calling this the dot-com bubble, just that a particular sub-sector thing is happening.

     

    Interesting point that the "fear of missing out" can be filled in with knowing that you can make money on the downside instead.

     

    Even if the author were stuck on a theory with poor timing, for me there's no need to worry about whether he'll be "taken out in a box" (quite an image...).......I found the article useful.

     

    > While writing a comment, I realized, it's going to take A LOT to burst these overvaluations. Maybe even not till a serious general market correction.

     

    > Also that it's really just a few stocks, which is typical in any market. That it's good to keep an eye out though as the market climbs, it gets tempting to go in too high.

     

    > And most interesting was that biotechs tend to run higher on speculation and overvaluation... so I need to be careful to look, as I investigation on what I want.

     

    24 Feb, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Looks like silver is going to blow right through $22 per ounce and gold still trending upward..

     

    My 2 cents from the PM bug >>.hehe
    24 Feb, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IT

     

    "PM bug," lol. So what kind of bug are you? Ladybug - hum, maybe not since you like the cabana girls not cabana boys. Cricket?? Yep, chirpping all the time :). What kind do you think you are?

     

    I'm not buying (DUST) till this gold trend up reverses.

     

    Smallcaps were same % up as S&P today again. Gold's up still. As Macro's pointed out... the pattern of sector investing has changed from 2013. I have no idea if it means anything to anyone.
    24 Feb, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    AH, I was just trying to break the tension , that's all...

     

    Just threw a curveball in ...hehe
    24 Feb, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IT

     

    Yep, I know you were posting just to add some levity!!! ...if you decide what kind of "bug" you are, let me know :). I'm still voting for a social chirping type, so cricket.

     

    Do you have info on any of the other metals or commodities to add in? Some of those movements might be interesting to some stocks, or the market in general...
    24 Feb, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH

     

    Still learning what moves gold and silver. Other then those two I have no idea...

     

    You like cricket, then cricket it is..

     

    But I have to say the conversation here is interesting for sure !
    24 Feb, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Demand Supply and emotion.
    25 Feb, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Update for today and a bit of shift of focus. I covered NFLX at 435, loss of $3.00, as they face higher costs. Market doesn't care, and loves these names. Keeping the LNKD, TWTR, and bank shorts.

     

    What I am watching are the Chinese property stocks. Not to be perpetually negative, but I am looking for a correction and this could be a catalyst. China had a rough night as property sector credit tightens, which is what the gov't wants to happen.

     

    I have shorted via options, (EJ) (CLF) and (WLT) coal names.

     

    I would continue to watch oil and gas prices too. For gas to approach $4 per gallon in february is remarkable. I fail to see how this is so incredibly bullish for the consumer.

     

    I am happy to buy but I refuse to chase with the sentiment numbers I am seeing and questionable economic data. Check out the miss on the Dallas Fed MFG. -- I didn't realize they had a massive winter storm in Texas.

     

    The other trade I have done is buy calls on (TLT). I think longer yields have topped, and with any correction money will rapidly flow back into treasuries. Good luck all.
    24 Feb, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Us markets are on a tear. It's impressive we punched through, I'll give it that much.
    24 Feb, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    This will be refuted by many who wish to continually doubt

     

    however i put it in the category of 'reality" and mentioned it recently in my blog comments...

     

    http://read.bi/1fiOBiE
    24 Feb, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Cisco (CSCO -0.1%) has filed a shelf registration for a debt offering whose proceeds the company plans to use to pay down $3.75B in debt maturing this year, and to finance its dividend (recently hiked) and buyback program (expanded by $15B in November).
    Reuters reports Cisco is raising at least $7B. The networking giant is said to be offering floating rate notes with three maturities (18-month, 3-year, and 5-year), and fixed-rate notes with four maturities (3-year, 5-year-, 7-year, and 10-year). Informa's Ken Jacques states $17B worth of orders have been placed.

     

    Silly me. I thought the earnings were all due to revenue growth as has been widely claimed.
    24 Feb, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    I have stated the above is a major contributor to earnings. Of course people all say thats ridiculous, NO-ONE is Borrowing to pay their dividend. IF Cisco is doing it, how many others?

     

    Why would they need to do this if business was fantastic?
    24 Feb, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Do you think that borrowing at historically-low cost to pay down more expensive debt, buy-back shares, or even pay dividends (when you have over $5B in the bank) is a sign of weakness? They should borrow when rates are higher?

     

    They're doing it because it's smart, not because they "need to."
    24 Feb, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    So Tack, as an investor, you would happily buy bonds at 45 basis points over treasuries so a company can use the proceeds to pay common stock dividends?

     

    I'm sure if your interested, there are many companies that would oblige you....

     

    There are 17B in orders for these bonds! Yet you say there is rampant fear and loathing in the market, everyone is hiding in treasuries and gold. I truly don't understand.
    24 Feb, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    To me, that there would be massive orders for anybody's bonds at such low rates speaks to an ultra-conservative outlook. Why would anyone accept such paltry yields, except that they "felt safe?" You sure would never find me owning such an instrument, now or ever.

     

    Triple-A bonds are just another form of "safety."
    24 Feb, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    adding the other fact to the story may be helpful to understand what is really going on..

     

    With demand for blue-chip corporate debt remaining strong, interest rates are bound to be low. Reuters states Cisco's 3-year fixed notes is set to carry only a 45bps premium to comparable Treasurys, and its 10-year fixed notes only a 105 bps premium.

     

    they also have 47 Billion offshore , so they are hardly in dire straits.. that works out to $9 a share in cash on a $22 stock price..

     

    latest financial statement states they generate Free cash flow of 9.9% -- not too bad and a div. of 3.4% ..

     

    I'll park some money there collect the div and sell it at a higher price a year from now..
    24 Feb, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Feeling very good about the stocks purchased on Friday….

     

    (UNH) United Health up $2.37 today

     

    (SJM) Smuckers up $1.35

     

    (CBRL) Cracker Barrel up $1.96

     

    (HRL) Hormel up $0.47

     

    (MDT) Medtronics up $0.80

     

    (PEP) Pepsi up $1.22

     

    Today I finally bought (GE) General Electric, up $0.46
    and (SWKS) Skyworks, which is on a tear….up $1.60

     

    A few more that have been incredible….(LVS) Las Vegas Sands up $3.52 and (LMT) Lockheed Martin up $2.67 today.

     

    For long term investors, buying great companies leads to amazing financial success.

     

    If the market does dip again, I'll be happy to buy more.

     

    Today I checked the dividends that I'm getting this year, with the stocks I currently hold: just over $57,000. I'll have to look for more bargains or add to existing positions as the $ keeps rolling in.

     

    Anyone who is staying out of the market because they think it's going to crash doesn't know about dividend growth investing & the amazing benefits of long term holding.

     

    Worrying constantly about the market would really get me down. No matter what, those dividends just keep getting put into my account. So on a down market day, I'm happy to go shopping for more bargains.

     

    I'm about double the amounts we had invested in 2008. The big dip we had in 2009 enabled me to get stocks at even better prices (via my mutual funds held at the time plus some individual stocks) and continuing to buy - even while others sat on their hands or cashed out - has been an excellent strategy.

     

    Take a look at the S&P and the DOW long term graphs. Now you can see the benefit that just staying in the market, even thru the downturns (especially investing at those times) did for you.

     

    I don't see at any time, even after the worst downturns, that the market did not come back. The great companies will still be in business, even after any future downturns we have.

     

    Market dips are the best opportunity for increasing your wealth.

     

    It's always a good idea to look for blue ribbon stocks with low PE ratios, and to buy in over time. Except when we have a really good market dip, then you should buy extra shares.

     

    Read the authors here on SA that talk about dividend growth investing. It does work. You can build a portfolio that will constantly earn you money & reward you with growth too.
    24 Feb, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Actually looking at the long term graphs will probably make some people worry even more! Like we've gone too high, and a huge crash is coming.

     

    So this is why it's important to have cash always coming in, and if you are really a worrier, then keep 10% or more of your portfolio in cash.

     

    I am one of those people that likes to have a lot of cash on hand. Because you still need to pay the bills, and might have something unexpected in your own life that makes having cash saved up allow you to sleep well at night.

     

    So I have almost 3 years of living expenses in cash. Also keep around 10% cash in my portfolios.

     

    We have zero debt. If I can't pay for it then I don't buy it - really makes you think twice before buying anything.

     

    No new cars for us. We keep our cars for as long as possible. I never buy anything unless it's on sale. Even most of the groceries we buy are the weekly specials. Eat out? Very rarely. I used to enjoy sushi, but it's just ridiculous to spend on one meal almost a week's worth of groceries. Now I'm older, and really I'm a very good cook. Eating out when I cook better makes it even less attractive.

     

    I use a credit card just to accumulate airline miles, so every year we fly for free. Never use a credit card unless you can pay it off - how stupid is it to pay that credit card interest when you could be making money on a dividend stock??

     

    We try to "vacation at home." Fortunately, that's not hard living in NJ, close to NYC.
    24 Feb, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    I've covered the bank and tech shorts at small losses on the market pullback here, and rotated more towards China related themes based on developments there.

     

    The market for social media remains on fire, and I cannot time the sentiment turn there. I will be back to Twitter in a month or so, as the larger lockup approaches.
    24 Feb, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Here's what Buffet had to say

     

    http://cnb.cx/1h7uPeQ

     

    this is from his annual letter to shareholders.

     

    Buffett argues, "Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time."

     

    I couldn't agree more. Instead of listening to market "noise" use your time to research companies. Look for stocks that are already successful, have room to grow, pay a dividend, and are currently out of favor. Like Pepsi (PEP). Or (JPM) JP Morgan, a bank with a really low PE value, fortress balance sheet and growing earnings.

     

    Keep an eye on IPOs. Recently, AMC theaters had its debut on the stock market. This is a good company, making money….so I bought a few shares. It's doing very well.

     

    If you can't resist gambling, save 5 % or so of your portfolio for that. Then go after the crazy stocks, sometimes you can make money. But be careful….you may have to get out quick. Every day I look over all the stocks in my portfolio, read up on the latest news, and check how they are doing several times a day. Okay, maybe I am obsessed but several times I've been able to quickly sell & avoid losses or at least still get some profit.

     

    For the 85% of my portfolio that is in solid blue ribbon companies, there is a lot less worry. When the market dips I can add to my positions.

     

    Sometimes you just have to be patient. Last summer I bought (HSY) Hershey. For quite awhile, it went down, then would come back a little…finally started a nice uptrend this year. I'm up over $2,000 now. If I had panicked & sold when my position was down over $1,500 last year - I would have lost money & lost out on owning one of the great blue ribbon companies.

     

    Same thing happened with (GIS) General Mills. Only recently, the stock has finally started to come back & I'm close to even. This is a solid company & I look forward to holding it for years to come.

     

    In both cases, being patient won out in the long run, & I continued to earn $ with the dividends.
    24 Feb, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    http://bloom.bg/1cJ4Gl9

     

    More commentary about the unending fear and absence of greed in the market. Bulls just ignore it, they likely copied this from Zero Hedge or something.
    24 Feb, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Uhhh, since you announced that you covered your own shorts, your gloomy market assertions seem to lack your own conviction.

     

    Of course, that may be a contrarian signal.
    24 Feb, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    marijuana stocks , zynga ,fireeye candy crush , yep they are the backbone of the S & p ..

     

    In the interim (RIG) had a nice pop today , i say that is more representative of the S & p than the names mentioned in that article..
    24 Feb, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    First, FG, a clarification on what is the market.

     

    The SPX is certainly not the leader in this market; nor are the large conservative components within it, regardless of what some stocks may or may not do.

     

    In my humble opinion, its exactly as the bloomberg article states - what is leading the market currently are the most speculative, least profitable companies with the highest perceived growth. That is social media stocks and biotech.

     

    Doesn't mean other stuff doesn't go up -- but those stocks Are the momentum phase of this market. Do you think, if the high beta stuff cracks hard, the blue chips will go up at the same time?
    24 Feb, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    I didn't say I've covered. I've shifted my short exposure to more direct China themes.

     

    When the Social media stocks signal it, I'll re- evaluate. Same with the banks -- that may have been a mistake. Won't be the last.
    24 Feb, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    The "market" can & will certainly go up if a (TSLA) or a (NFLX) or any other high flyer u wish to name craters here and goes down,,,

     

    If u seriously believe the blue chips can't rally with those name faltering u are sadly mistaken

     

    in fact they have done so already, recent example of TSLA cratering while the S & P rallied..

     

    The 3d printing stocks a high flying sector are getting crushed as the S & p vaults to new highs.

     

    need more examples..
    24 Feb, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    TSLA cratering. Thats not a crater. That was a brief dip.

     

    3D crushed??? How much is DDD up in the last year? Those are noise - dips.
    24 Feb, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    TSLA goes from 194 to 116 from Oct 1 to Dec 21

     

    call it what u wish , $78 is a crater in my book

     

    Now, In that same timespan the S & P went from 1695 to 1818 ..

     

    so stocks like tsla and other high flyers don't rule the S & p and as i stated

     

    yes the S & P can go higher without them
    24 Feb, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    Blue,
    your strategy and steadfast position on the value of LT investing is refreshing..

     

    I have read your comments from the time the S & P first broke to new highs at 1550 , then again @ 1600 , 1650, 1700, 1750, 1800.. All the while explaining the value in your strategy, and getting questioned all along the way.

     

    Reading articles and comments on many other blogs here on SA I see that the naysayers that questioned the validity of this rally, blaming the fed, and placing a negative slant on every data point while they sat on the sidelines waiting for the market to crash remain resolute in their ill fated strategies and convoluted thinking ------ yes, are still around in abundance. They questioned EVERY new high ----- just as they will down the road ..

     

    I might add, that is a good thing, as it shows once again that “everyone” isn’t convinced , yet many chant that the opposite is true. I’ll say it again this market is despised and that is a sign that we are in the early stages of a secular bull market. Many still don’t believe.. period…

     

    Sure we will have corrections, and the people that haven’t understood and don’t understand what is happening around them will continue to sit and scratch their heads..

     

    Watch as how they will be the first to pop up to tell us how they were right when the S & P does finally correct. It’s comical.. As comical as the people that ran around with this phrase ---“lets see where the markets are when the Fed tapers”

     

    When they leave their bunkers now, they will emerge to find the fed has started to taper and the market is higher…

     

    A level headed strategy trumps all in the long run. Optimism as a default setting is the only way to build wealth over the long term,

     

    :)
    24 Feb, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Thanks F&G. You, JBT & Tack are some of the few that I can agree with most days here. Most of the time, I feel like I'm talking to myself ; ) It does help me to post here tho, to collect my thoughts. And if anyone else is reading my posts, hopefully they will be inspired to look up dividend growth stocks, blue ribbon stocks, etc. It helps to have some stocks that return a high yield too, like (PSEC), (MAIN), (PTY), etc.

     

    One of the reasons I really believe in buying quality & holding for the long term is that's how my dad invested. My mom, who is 89 now, tells me all the time that if he hadn't put away IRA & investment income, they would not have been financially secure. Hello, she's 89 & now has MORE money than what my father had accumulated when he died back in 1990! Now how's that for fantastic investment results? She has not sold anything other than a few individual stocks my brother thought should be sold. Of course, everything that he had her sell went on to outperform. Most of my mom's investments are in mutual funds that have done incredibly well over the years.

     

    My dad never made more than $20,000 a year as a pharmacist. He left my mom an estate valued at over half a million, and also left a trust for us 4 kids that continues to earn even today. Over a million dollars.

     

    When I say you can retire with millions, I am not making it up. For my parents, or for me.

     

    If my dad had been investing my money all these years, I'm quite certain the results would be 10 times what I've been able to accomplish.

     

    He's the one that told me decades ago, it's not how much you make in a year, it's what you do with it. Invest it wisely, or waste it.

     

    He also told me never to short the market. Just buy quality, at a good price, and don't sell.
    24 Feb, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    http://cnb.cx/1fOGPOy

     

    And more on the Chinese Yuan. I've become convinced China will be the next catalyst for a risk asset correction. They are trying to deflate their property bubble and it may not be neat and tidy.

     

    I'm sure the US will kick and scream like a toddler as well when China devalues the Yuan. Only the US is allowed a weak currency.
    24 Feb, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    http://cnb.cx/1h7yXM8__source=cnbcsocial|ma...

     

    Lets follow Cramer. or maybe not.
    24 Feb, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M

     

    Some of Your recent comments from the past week ,

     

    "I am short and positioning for a cyclical bear market as the Fed continues to pull back from accomodation, and fiscal policy remains contractionary in both North America and Asia."

     

    "My view is -- today's stock buyers will get taken to the "woodshed" "

     

    "I am quite short now. Betting we roll over led by high growth, financials."

     

    "I am shorting aggressively right here, GS, NFLX, LNKD "

     

    I certainly get the picture you painted loud and clear ...

     

    My only question now would be if you are still positioned for a cyclical bear market..
    24 Feb, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    Gold and silver still going up !!
    24 Feb, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3586) | Send Message
     
    Bait denied. :)
    24 Feb, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    You fish ? :)
    24 Feb, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3586) | Send Message
     
    No, no fishing for me. Maybe (PF). 3% yield. A lot of people like fish... ;)
    24 Feb, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    JBT,

     

    I like your stock selections,,

     

    Equity Market still offering opportunities ...

     

    While many are consistently focused on "noise' & trivia.. :)
    24 Feb, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    A new stock since April 2013 -- smallcap --- and with 3% dividend. Something to look into for growth with dividend...

     

    Down today as the market climbed, wonder what that was about?

     

    I bought fish today :).
    24 Feb, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3586) | Send Message
     
    I ate fish last week (but was not Van de Kamps)... I may test the waters and see if it's a keeper... ;)
    24 Feb, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    My thoughts are largely unchanged from the above, except I would say those buyers chasing the momo stocks in particular are at risk of a trip to the woodshed, at current valuations.

     

    Don't think anyone's going to get killed buying pepsi stock or RIG.

     

    China is tightening, and so is the US, gradually.

     

    Correction, cyclical bear, fear refresh, who knows the degree -- but to me conditions line up for such an event. When, how much, I have no idea. A cyclical bear is a 20% correction as generally defined. I could certainly see that in the nasdaq, which would be my basis. Or the Nasdaq could double again from here, aka 1999, then drop 80%. Who knows?

     

    Obviously in fighting the market trend, I use very tight stops, and some were triggered today.

     

    I am long TLT, and short a few china related issues.

     

    GS I will short again immediately if it fails this uptrend. I am respecting the strength of the market here.
    24 Feb, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M,
    your comment :
    "Correction, cyclical bear, fear refresh, who knows the degree -- but to me conditions line up for such an event. When, how much, I have no idea. A cyclical bear is a 20% correction as generally defined. I could certainly see that in the nasdaq, which would be my basis. Or the Nasdaq could double again from here, aka 1999, then drop 80%. Who knows? "

     

    so now the nasdaq is the index that may be going into a cyclical bear market .. but it may double from here also..

     

    i get it now --

     

    and you are asking me to clarify and defend my position on the equity market.. ??? .
    24 Feb, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Sure, it got stupid in 1999. Can it melt up like that? Of course. Maybe next month, china, Europe or the us engages in unlimited QE. Obviously there are many variables.

     

    I've explained my thesis and am trying to tactically trade it. I don't expect, or care, if others agree --
    24 Feb, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Shorting on Valuation is profoundly difficult. Amazon would be the poster child for this argument, as it reports virtually no profits, but the market continues to buy it based on growth.
    24 Feb, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps u missed my point on that very topic earlier

     

    "I took a lesson form the last tech bubble. Its NOT necessary to be a hero and call the top, plenty of money can and will be made on the downside once the “bubble” if in fact one exists in a stock or a sector is burst and a downtrend is firmly in place. "

     

    I believe it's the last part of that message that is important..
    24 Feb, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    FG; you have repeatedly said interest rates will rise and the banks will make a fortune when they do.

     

    I have a different view. Your contention I believe, is billions of investment dollars are fearfully hiding in bonds, ready to come into the stock market, and long term interest rates are headed straight up.

     

    Is this still your contention, if so, when and why?

     

    If so, with a such a powerful move in stocks, and huge inflows the last 2 weeks into stock funds, and with an accelerating economy I think you referenced somewhere, and the Fed tapering, why do long rates refuse to move higher, and in fact are well off their recent highs?

     

    I'd love to hear too -- the big move in gold. Why would this happen in an improving economy with the Fed tapering? And please don't say its oversold -- lets have some real analysis please.
    24 Feb, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    MACRO

     

    One needs to have studied the metals to give a solid reason for an answer..

     

    Oversold is the common theme :)

     

    Some even post it will go below 1k too !
    24 Feb, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    You haven't been correct so far. You might want to step back and analyze, rather than charge forward on the attack.

     

    First off, interest rates are not going to rise, Fed and QE tapering notwithstanding, unless there's more demand for credit. And, more demand for credit means a stronger economy. End of story.

     

    Look at trading volumes: http://yhoo.it/yHJ5xM

     

    They refuse to budge, whether the market is selling off or going higher. there is no "exodus" of money nor any massive new buying. It's all a fiction, no matter what some article may say. Volumes don't lie. If there's money coming into funds, then it hasn't been deployed, which is even more bad news for bears.

     

    Gold seems to be making a technical move, or perhaps, it's afraid of the Ukraine, or maybe it's imagining new inflation. Gold rarely moves in concert with any rational market behavior, so why should it commence now? Gold is a sideshow, not a market determinant.

     

    You simply don't seem to understand the liquidity equation. The market cannot flow against liquidity.
    24 Feb, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Tack, demographic change may mean volumes will not go to prior euphoric peaks. 80 year old investors, perhaps will stay in bonds.

     

    Money coming in hasn't been deployed? Then what drove us up the last 2 weeks?

     

    Your point on liquidity is well taken. However that would speak to the greater fool theory, that liquidity drives valuations higher no matter what.

     

    Supposed its worked so far.

     

    Gasoline and rents are rising. Fed cannot ignore that and neither should the market. Does anyone still see what CPI at 1.5%?
    24 Feb, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Tack, thank you for your clear headed comments.

     

    One way to know whether your investment strategy is working is simple…if you are making money, then it's working.

     

    Especially over the long haul.

     

    It's likely my stage in life, but I'm not at all worried about what my total portfolios are worth. Rather, I'm more interested in the income from dividends that is constantly coming in.

     

    Whether the stock/ETF/etc. price goes up or down doesn't matter. The dividends still get paid.

     

    That's the goal of a DGI investor (dividend growth investor). Keep accumulating shares of companies that historically increase their dividends.

     

    Market downturns are not to be feared as they offer huge opportunities.
    24 Feb, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Tack, on interest rates you contradict yourself. Isn't it your contention the economy Is strengthening, that is supporting earnings and revenue growth, and then.....where is the credit demand?
    24 Feb, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Please, not the time-worn demographic argument. It's so fallacious on so many fronts: The idea that retirees don't spend is nonsense. The idea that they all sit in AAA bonds is likewise. The idea that global demand drops because U.S. boomers are retiring is, perhaps, the funniest of all.

     

    Liquidity doesn't have anything to do with fools. It simply means that major market retreats are hard to mount (as any conscientious observer would have already noticed) because there's too much idle liquidity waiting to buy dips. It's near impossible to mount an extended run unless we have something truly calamitous occur that scares people witless.

     

    Valuations are not wildly high. Why is that canard raised again and again? And, it matters not at all that a few tech go-go's are extended.

     

    Gasoline and rents are rising? Gasoline has barely moved in months. Inflation remains completely muted. And, besides, rising inflation will be an indicator of increasing demand, not an imminent market collapse. The Fed wants some inflationary pressure; they'll do utterly nothing, except maybe accelerate QE tapering, which, again, will have no economic effect, positive or negative.
    24 Feb, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    I said nothing about retirees in terms of the economy. We were talking about stock trading volumes, which I believe would be demographic affected.

     

    As for QE effects, "economy effects " and market effects are 2 different things.
    24 Feb, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    M
    as i have stated earlier , its time for the crowd that have been on the wrong side of the trade to defend their strategy and position .

     

    As for me , my blog has all of my "calls' go read it...

     

    i simply ask u to review them ----and I stand by them --today ---there is no change in my thesis at all..

     

    as for the banks we'll see how their earnings turn out in '14 -- so far so good and its only Feb.

     

    So go read the commentary , it's all there .. no agenda and nothing to hide.

     

    However,
    maybe it's time for those to now step up to the plate and defend their ill fated strategies that have been proclaimed for the last few years.. and more recently the cyclical bear market we are about to enter.

     

    As for gold, there is no analysis, there are no fundamentals to base a value on,, its purely technical,,
    so what "real" analysis are u looking for..

     

    will u now tell me u can put a value on it based on a fundamental ? if so please tell us all what that fact is..

     

    I have asked that question for a year here on SA, from the so called metal experts who claim to have studied the metals for decades, yet i haven't received the answer , so Please tell me what is THE fundamental that I can use to price GOLD , its pure emotion & fear...
    Is GOLD "over" or "under" valued here and whatever u u answer please tell me why ....

     

    My analysis :
    when one buys it , he/she has to hope that the next person in line has more "fear" than they do in the hopes of selling it for more than what they just paid .

     

    Is there anything else ?
    24 Feb, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    I have no idea except it seems to be following long bonds somewhat. So the major question would be -- where is the strengthening economy, resulting credit demand, and higher long rates? That is what a secular bull would need....

     

    I don't believe writing, that I've been shorting constantly for the last few years, this is pretty recent. I shorted gold a lot last year, though.
    24 Feb, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    The inverse does not disprove the obverse, i.e., if interest rates rise, that means that credit demand is expanding, but an economy can grow without undue pressure on credit formation, which is why we see the modest growth that everybody (well, almost everybody) complains about.
    24 Feb, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "Retiree" retail stock volumes can hardly be seen with a microscope, before or after they retired. Institutional money drives markets.
    24 Feb, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    My secular bull thesis has been laid out on my blog. & the economy questions are and have been addressed there with examples..

     

    and i do that so i don't have to type incessantly every time anyone asks me to defend it..

     

    its my thoughts after a ton of research - and i am positioned accordingly with the names i present in my portfolio holdings. to date i am happy with the results.....

     

    and no one has to buy into it.. it represents apart of my overall research on the equity market.. it's presented there for those that may have interest

     

    one can take it or leave it..
    24 Feb, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    I am all in FAZ.
    I don't believe the market could bust through new highs and therefor would drop, HARD.
    Heaven or hell, let's see where this would take me. XD
    YEEHAW!!!
    24 Feb, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    You aren't a "newbie" without reason.
    24 Feb, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    why would you put all your $ in one single investment?

     

    Newbie have you read any investment books? Diversification is the first rule.
    24 Feb, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie

     

    I don't think I understand your comment completely. You're back all in the market? Sounds good, though most everyone in SA say they are still keeping 10-20% for drops.

     

    Did you put it all into (FAZ) - a 3xs financial bear stock?

     

    > Do you know you can't hold the 3xs leveraged stocks for more an a few days? They lose value overnight (get readjusted), so just holding, your money will go to zero over time.

     

    > Can I beg you not to make this big and non-diverse a bet this early in your investing experience? It's up to you to do what you want with YOUR money of course. But there will be many, many opportunities. Why not wait until you have more experience to "put it all on red" as they say at the casino?

     

    > Why's the market going to drop hard right now? It's been the logical move over and over in 2013 as it went to new highs. Looking at charts, these natural corrections can actually be quite a ways apart.

     

    If this makes you happy, that's great. I have reservations that I wanted to say in case it's helpful to you.
    24 Feb, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Newbie, I agree with Blue Sky and LOM. I dont even advocate shorting for others, just caution on the long side for the reasons I outline. The erosion on those products are horrible.
    24 Feb, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH

     

    "Do you know you can't hold the 3xs leveraged stocks for more an a few days? They lose value overnight (get readjusted), so just holding, your money will go to zero over time."

     

    This is not true. You can hold it for way more then 3 days. Not sure where you heard this but look no further then the challenge for proof.. I held (NUGT) longer then that !

     

    Not suggesting it is the smartest move, but that statement is false. Going to zero is almost impossible if you know what you are doing...
    24 Feb, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IT,

     

    I didn't say 3 days, I said a few days. I don't know the timeline, but I remember seeing in a prospectus and others' commenting that decay can be significant.

     

    On googling "3xs leveraged ETFs" a lot of article appear. This SA one says 30% decay in a year, plus other decay factors. So not to zero, but not nothing either.
    http://bit.ly/1mE5v58
    He suggests holding only a few days at a time for immediate trading moves.

     

    I don't know if the move is smart or not, but there are risks with that investment, and I want Newbie to be aware of them.
    24 Feb, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for all your concerns. XD
    It would only be for a while. I am prepared to lose some money should this not panned out.

     

    I want all of you to know that I take all of your advices seriously because they are good and I have made money with your cautions and advices, but it's stressing me out right now because every instinct in me is telling me that now it's the time to feed but you are telling me no. X_X LOL

     

    Let's just see how this turns out.
    Good luck all. XD
    25 Feb, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie,

     

    The key in a plan is to look at the possible upside but also the possible downside. It's easy to look at only one side. So if you figure out the max you can lose, and are comfortable with that, i.e. it won't make you broke, then that's good. Also once you look at the downside, it's easier to have a plan to get out sooner, if the trade isn't working out after all.

     

    We aren't telling you that you're instincts on direction are wrong. Some might agree with you. Some of us might have other instincts. But none of us "know"... we're all guessing.

     

    We're just urging you not to risk going broke over one instinct. It's the amount of risk that we're being cautious over.

     

    It sounds like you don't have EVERYTHING in that one trade.

     

    We'll see how it turns out.
    Good luck!! :)
    25 Feb, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi! Back home from a long day... so did we break out enough to prove we're back on the upswing?

     

    One favor I'd ask is to not make comments personal. No need to "prove" someone else is "wrong"! Doesn't effect the markets! They're going to do what they're doing to do.

     

    If we all share what data we're using and how we think about and approach things... that gives everyone else a chance to see what ideas they want to adopt and which don't fit them. Especially since some are traders and liking for risk, and others are long term investor. It's fascinating to see all the ways everyone approaches the markets.
    24 Feb, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Brazil

     

    I started researching and have questions...

     

    > Looks like Olympics are not till 2016, and World cup is not till June. That's a long time to wait, if the trend is up now?

     

    > What implies the trend is up now? There's a small improvement in (VALE) and (EWZ) & (EBR), but it's still part of a downtrend.

     

    > Why pick (EBR) electrical, over (EWZ)? The Electric ETF shows more downturn, so more potential upturn. But it's a very narrow market sector.
    24 Feb, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I thought this person's observations interesting. Is the data accurate?

     

    It's a day trader, so noise matters to them.

     

    ....I can't understand where all the exuberance is coming from. For the past four sessions the S&P 500 has risen in the morning on low volume and dropped in the afternoon with heavy selling.

     

    So are the retail investors buying the dips and the hedge funds are selling into strength? It went over 1858 today but didn't close at a new record. A transfer of wealth from the little guys to the big? A dangerous market with no one showing caution or patience?
    24 Feb, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    i can speak to (VALE) & (EWZ) two charts that i am following , 'your assessment is correct on those two, they show signs of a bottom and 'rounding" up ,but too early to tell if the selling is over.. as they have done that before then dropped further..

     

    its difficult to pick the absolute bottom, so if u are interested u start a small position now..

     

    (EBR) isnt an etf ---its a utility company providing power in Brazil so its not a choice between EWZ or EBR
    24 Feb, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • jbzw
    , contributor
    Comments (647) | Send Message
     
    It might be if you wanted only limited exposure to that area of the world.
    24 Feb, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jbzw -

     

    There was a streaming conversation about Brazil being closer to turning around. Some ideas were given, & I've looked into part of them.

     

    So yep, the idea was to invest some in a recovering economy at an early stage than the US now is in.

     

    Any investments you're long on now, or styles you really like (value, DGI, smallcap?)

     

    Welcome to the blog! BTW, as chapters get long, I make another one, link posted at the bottom and we continue there...
    25 Feb, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    It could go down quite a bit more, and for quite a while. Months, year, other things happen meanwhile making it take even longer. Why not miss some of the upside by waiting until it's move up?

     

    So why the utility company instead of the broad market? And (VALE) is a mining company... so that's buying into a lot more sectors (mining, and gold, and gov't influence on mining regulations)... than just a company.

     

    Well, more on my list to keep looking into...
    24 Feb, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    There are better ways to get latin american assets than the brazilian government companies...

     

    You were looking at (TGT)... (CNCO) is going to give you a better ROR of the long haul.
    25 Feb, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Short term trade on Staples possible...
    http://bit.ly/1c4ajN0

     

    Staples is down on OfficeDepot's miss after it's buyout of OfficeMax. Staples had a miss last quarter too. Pays 3.6% div (approx). OD doesn't have div.

     

    Retail & box stores weakness...
    25 Feb, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Staples has an out dated model, it can either change or die, I'd only be interested if it was trading at a PE of 5.
    25 Feb, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    Yair,

     

    take a look at (BBBY) , i've mentioned it before

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    doesnt pay a div :(

     

    .. but the chart is starting to shows sign that a bottom is in and the 'upturn" may be in place..

     

    I made good $ with this one in the past..

     

    :)
    25 Feb, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Buying a small position thanks!
    25 Feb, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    Here' some facts on the recent earnings reports regarding specific sectors..

     

    IT (information Tech.) showed an earnings "beat" rate of 70% in the last quarter.. This bodes well for tech companies and the associated Nasdaq index which is where many if not all of these companies reside.

     

    The other surprise was Consumer discretionary -- that "beat " rate was 64% .. A surprise since many have questioned the resilience of the consumer..

     

    If these trends continue it bodes well for the LT health of the market..

     

    Here's a link i stumbled on this morning that seems to agree with my assertion regarding gold..

     

    from the WSJ 2/25 :

     

    http://yhoo.it/1efcHiK

     

    I post it for info purposes only -- everyone can draw their own conclusions.. Its not intended to suggest a buy or sell on the metal.. 
    25 Feb, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (PSEC) is falling today 3% so far. What's up?

     

    (EGHT) and (UVE) will replace Prospect Capital (PSEC) and Avid Technology (AVID), respectively in the S&P 600.
    25 Feb, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3586) | Send Message
     
    (PSEC) = ex-div.
    25 Feb, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (569) | Send Message
     
    And if I only had some extra cash...
    25 Feb, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3551) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7

     

    When's your cash arrive? You'd be buying (PSEC)? Anything else?
    25 Feb, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    You answered your own question.

     

    Great day to buy PSEC & AINV.
    25 Feb, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (569) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    Middle of next month is my next savings/investment paycheck. Hopefully psec will continue to drop until then (right).

     

    If prices and discounts are about the same, (PSEC), (UTF), (TPZ) are considerations. But things may change over a couple of weeks and I may find something better.

     

    (deleted comment and reposted for editing because SA doesn't allow sane edits now)
    25 Feb, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    Yeah it's ridiculous in my opinion...so because (PSEC) is named, all BDCs should take a hit??? Well at least the ones I'm holding (MAIN) (TCPC) (TCRD). Makes no sense.

     

    Has there been a reason issued why it's being replaced in that index? Even though it probably doesn't matter.
    25 Feb, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    T:

     

    Any other BDCs on your buy list today?
    25 Feb, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    Ones that might be attractive are:

     

    (TICC)
    (TCRD)
    (TCAP)
    25 Feb, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    TACK (PSEC)

     

    Can you explain if the ex dividend date is tomorrow , you must own it today. Then why does the stock get hit today , a day you need to actually own it to get the dividend.

     

    A little confused as to the rationale..

     

    Thanks!
    25 Feb, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12769) | Send Message
     
    IT:

     

    Nothing to do with ex-div. PSEC deleted from S&P Index fund, so all investors who mimic that fund's holdings are selling it.

     

    Means nothing about PSEC's business, itself.

     

    P.S. The general hysteria in the BDC sector today makes for wonderful buys.
    25 Feb, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10169) | Send Message
     
    TACK

     

    Thanks, I am adding to my RLP ..(PSEC).

     

    I logged on late today , any link about this?
    25 Feb, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    The world is extremely interconnected. I continue to preach great caution here with the events in the world that are developing. My China related shorts are kicking in well this morning. The risk is China plus a failure at new highs, leads to a real risk off move here. I continue to see a highly speculative environment aka moves like TSLA is seeing this morning.

     

    Short Various China - related / coal / materials stocks, Long TLT
    25 Feb, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I want to short TSLA I wish I had the balls!
    25 Feb, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    I am reshort (GS) as well, 165.50
    25 Feb, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    China is trading at like 8x earnings...
    25 Feb, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    (GS) goes ex-div tomorrow..
    25 Feb, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    If one is nervous on the market and not sure of the next move here is a good way to earn income

     

    Buy (MU) and sell a call ,,IF the market turns against you and the stock isn't called away ,IMO you're "Stuck" with a good LT play .. IF it is called (the objective) you earn 4% in 30 days..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I added this position to my existing long position in (MU)
    25 Feb, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    I'd be watching the banks, added to (GS) short
    25 Feb, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Short (GS) good now. Who's buying the dip here?
    25 Feb, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    I added (CPA) to my holdings this morning ,

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Feb, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    More rotation today - beaten down sectors getting a bid ?

     

    Select retail doing well (BBBY) a nice move today .. maybe headed back to 70 - 72 ? (COH) up also

     

    TGT getting untracked..
    25 Feb, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    Chop Shop....
    25 Feb, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2943) | Send Message
     
    H&S top is still in play for Financials......amazed by the resiliency of the SPX. I think its QE liquidity, and nothing more. Don't believe me? Lets get QE stopped and see what happens.
    25 Feb, 04:40 PM Reply Like