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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #7 224 comments
    Feb 25, 2014 5:07 PM

    I 've set up this blog ...as community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!!

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #7. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog.

    .

    Links

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great!:
    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (224)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please bring over your data from the prior chapter... and ... share your ideas.

     

    ...is the upturn confirmed yet?
    ...what are the undervalued sectors & subsectors about to improve?

     

    Anyone outside of or inside SA that you like to follow?
    25 Feb 2014, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    So, Tack: QE has zero effect on the economy.

     

    You believe QE has zero effect on the markets ( contrary to Bernanke's testimony I might add, that increasing asset prices was a primary goal)

     

    We have ample liquidity, obviously.

     

    Why is this program continuing? What was the benefit of QE 3 in the first place -- what was the point?
    25 Feb 2014, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Duh!

     

    We have an over abundance of liquidity, most of which is now residing at the Fed, again. If you agree we had too much for too long, and there was no point continuing, why do you insist that its tapering or stoppage will wreak havoc? Your argument makes no sense.

     

    The point of QE was to provide liquidity. It did that in spades. It matters very little what happens now, except that it appears that lots of people don't seem to understand that, so the Fed seems intent on proceeding with caution.

     

    Hey, you said you covered your shorts and are now trying new turf in China. make up your mind. You think we're folding here, or not?
    25 Feb 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    You're not answering. Why did we need the liquidity of QE 3, when it's supposed to make zero difference? There was no crisis or shortage of liquidity when QE 3 was started.
    25 Feb 2014, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Reread my comments. I am short china related plays, short GS, long treasuries. All are working.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro
    What are the China issues?

     

    Real estate bubble is the only one I caught -and that doesn't have bigger effect unless the banks are doing the same poor lending practices ours were.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    Are you incapable of reading? I have stated, more times than I care to count, that QE3 was/is superfluous.

     

    You seem to want to argue in the same breath, in some vain attempt to support you negative thesis, that QE3 was simultaneously unnecessary and the only thing holding up markets and the economy. Pick one.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    You are too funny. You think nobody can go back and read your other posts on your recommended shorts and calculate the outcomes? The only unknown is exactly how large your losses have been, so far.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Sorry LOM. I'm done with this blog. I dont like being insulted. My trades are working just fine. Read about it in the WSJ.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    I'm sorry... maybe post what you like doing, but skip the macro topics debating? How/where in the WSJ -- do you contribute there?

     

    What trades have been working for you since you've posted here? It's been hard to tell what moves you've made as the market shifted around.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Macro has been relentlessly chiding anybody long, beating QE to death and citing "euphoria," as he's been touting his shorts and "claiming" he's making money.

     

    OK, let's take a quick look at just one set of recommendations:

     

    Here's a direct quote from Macro's post on February 17th:

     

    "Well, I am short LNKD, Nflx, Tsla, DDD, TWTR. "

     

    Let's take a quick look at how each of these has performed since Feb 17th:

     

    LNKD - +9.4%
    NFLX - +3.7%
    TSLA - +21.6%
    DDD - -1.3%
    TWTR - -5.2%

     

    Anybody think that someone shorting that basket is counting piles of money this afternoon?
    25 Feb 2014, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Macrotrader100
    Comments (1239)
     
    I've covered the bank and tech shorts at small losses on the market pullback here, and rotated more towards China related themes based on developments there.
     
    The market for social media remains on fire, and I cannot time the sentiment turn there. I will be back to Twitter in a month or so, as the larger lockup approaches.
    24 Feb, 04:05 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1

     

    As I posted yesterday in my switch to shorting china names. I covered Tsla before their earnings at 195, and the rest yesterday when the market broke out. Lost perhaps 1% on the trade, which I've already made back on the china shorts.

     

    That's it, done with this conversation.
    25 Feb 2014, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    It's really a nuisance that SA keeps those prior comments, isn't it?

     

    "Yep, I was shorting TSLA. Covered on the pre - earnings selloff at 195, put the short back on at 212. Gotta trade around positions.
    Feb 20 05:13 PM"

     

    Were you not telling the truth then or now?
    25 Feb 2014, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    I covered the Tsla about flat, same day I think or the next.

     

    Believe whatever you wish.
    25 Feb 2014, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Credibility is earned,,

     

    If one wants to post trades , and show profit/loss

     

    use the instablog feature and the trades are dated and time stamped..

     

    Then there is no question ...
    25 Feb 2014, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I had noticed Macro's covering comment and figured that's how he'd dealt with the market moving against him.

     

    -
    Successful traders are right only slightly more than 1/2 the time. It's in how they cut losses, and let gains right and stay calm when the market's open... that gives them net gains. So I'm not surprised to see some of Macro's trades go the wrong way.

     

    -
    It would be great to see actual buys & sells. But we're a new crowd to him, and I wouldn't expect it right out of the gate. I've been hoping as he posts... it will get easier to follow what exactly he's doing and what are triggering his decisions.

     

    -
    In my experience sometimes a person is successful and attributes it to some macro concepts... but when you look closely there's other techniques they are using but don't yet know to communicate (this was a professional field of mine for a while.)

     

    -
    I think synergy of asking questions and figuring out what someone's doing... can give ideas & value, even if there's a lot you disagree with...!

     

    -
    So my 2 cents...
    25 Feb 2014, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    In my view , we are still in "no mans' land regarding the S & P.. It could go either way,, break to new highs or break down..

     

    Here's is a picture of sectors that have been bought recently since the Jan high... and those that are lagging

     

    people piling into utilities suggest a nervous bunch as it is THE defensive sector of the S & P

     

    http://bit.ly/1fonUsY
    25 Feb 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Professionals are buying the utilities and bonds. Ummm.....others...Being polite......are piling into social media.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Case shiller home prices y/y results

     

    http://bit.ly/1mFX61i

     

    Notice the Nov - Dec negatives...
    25 Feb 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    In each month's Consumer Confidence survey, consumers are asked whether they expect stock prices to rise or fall. In this month's survey, 29.7% of respondents expect stock prices to rise while 33.1% expect stock prices to fall. This works out to a spread of negative 3.4%. This is the first time since October (S & P is up 200 points since that reading) and only the third time since the start of 2013 that more people in this survey expect equity prices to fall than rise.

     

    There is NO euphoria and everyone isn't "all In" and they certainly aren't enamored by the stock market and that is fuel for the secular bull story..

     

    No one believes and many are Wary.. therefore no major top at these levels ..

     

    The "best" the bears can hope for here is an intermediate top and a correction to pave the way for further gains later in the year..
    25 Feb 2014, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    You hang your hat on one data point? I couldnt care less what the surveys say. I look at what people Do , not what they Say. And the data says they are piling in, the more speculative the better.

     

    No one believes --. Walk over to the SA article recommending people sell Facebook -- check out the comment stream, price targets, insults thrown at the skeptics. Just for an article ....recommending people take profits!

     

    Look at Tesla action today. Like whatever, believe everyone is hiding in fear if you wish.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Thats what the data says , ignore at your own peril ..
    25 Feb 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13851) | Send Message
     
    FEAR

     

    You talk about sector rotation. In your opinion which is the next sector that has the better chance of rising first ?

     

    Thanks!
    25 Feb 2014, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    IT,

     

    My guess would be to look at the sectors that are lagging from that chart i posted.

     

    Telecom is the deepest in the red, take a look at (T) its quite depressed and pays a good div,, or (VZ) same situation. both "safe" conservative plays ...

     

    I am looking at some retail names (consumer disc. ) that have been beaten up

     

    I mentioned (BBBY) here today , (TGT) is a div aristocrat that has had its share of troubles , but i believe in the long run they will get it fixed.

     

    and Financials have lagged this year , they may get weaker , but i believe they will prove to be ok later this year..

     

    When looking at beaten down sectors one has to have patience.. u are buying when no one wants them ,, similar to the gold miners that had a big run this year.. they were tossed away last year as no one wanted them .. . I missed that trade..
    25 Feb 2014, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    (PM) and (MO) fit into this category, IMHO. (PM) moreso. I disregard what they sell - when it comes to making money in the market, I leave any notions of 'morality' at the door. ;)
    25 Feb 2014, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13851) | Send Message
     
    FEAR and JBT

     

    Great points, Thanks...

     

    As you know I don't know how to read charts. But I do hear that a technical point in the markets S&P is close yet the market hasn't been able to break through it.

     

    For those like me what does that mean? Is a correction of some sorts coming? can it try a few times before it finally breaks through ?

     

    I am not sure what to make of what the talking heads are saying.

     

    Thanks!
    25 Feb 2014, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Merrill Lynch reported the public added $13.4 Bil to stocks last week. Obviously they don't expect stocks to fall my much.
    26 Feb 2014, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    A portion of my commentary from my last update

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    "With the S & P now back up sniffing the old highs of 1848, we can certainly see a tipping point either way in the next week or so.

     

    Will it be a vault to new highs which will have the shorts scrambling yet again, adding fuel to that move ? Or a failure here once again to break thru, sending the S & P down to test the recent low ? A trading range or perhaps even a further probe of the downside if that's broken ?

     

    I don't have those answers and suggest that anyone that can definitively tell us that next move is simply making a "bet on their best guess".

     

    For those that have been listening, taking profits along the way, trimming stretched positions, selling upside calls for income , It's simply stay the course and let the market decide the next move , if any ..."
    26 Feb 2014, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Into utilities... and the smallcaps haven't been leading as much...

     

    On QE - Bernanke said last May, QE3 wasn't doing much anymore and so it was time to stop. Personally, I think there's be a mood change when bank accounts pay interest and "regular" people can go back to feeling like the g'vt thinks the recession is over and the economy isn't manipulated and life is normal.
    25 Feb 2014, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    (RUT) Russell 2000 also a hair from a new high , many view that as a big concern for the health of the market in the short term

     

    Well see
    25 Feb 2014, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F,

     

    Meaning that if R2 hits new high, that may trigger or coincide with a dip or correction...

     

    With Consumer Confidence slightly neg, does that tend to lead to a correction/dip?
    25 Feb 2014, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Why (PSEC) was removed from the index. It effects all the BDCs.

     

    "New York, NY, February 24, 2014 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today announced that it has made several changes to the S&P U.S. Indices methodology effective after the close of trading on March 21 to coincide with the March rebalance. After consulting with clients concerned with certain reporting requirements, expenses, and investment restrictions relating to business development companies (BDCs), S&P Dow Jones has decided to remove all identified BDCs from its U.S. Indices. BDCs will remain eligible for certain other types of indices."

     

    http://bit.ly/1efQGAw
    25 Feb 2014, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm trying to understand ex-div better. This article lays it out nicely. However, if I get a $1 div, but my stock price is automatically dropped by a $1... don't I come up with 0?
    http://bit.ly/1mFZzsm
    25 Feb 2014, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    No. You still have the stock, with it's dividend intact. People buy the stock for the yield (usually, with dividend stocks), and as a result the stock price will raise again until a "fair value" yield is reached.

     

    There are people who try to do a dividend capture type of investing (timing the dividend and subsequent sale of the stock once the price goes back up beyond the price it was before ex-div).

     

    Myself, I just buy and DRIP. My portfolio value has gone up every year, so I guess it works.

     

    I'm sure someone else can explain it better than me, but that's my take on it.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT
    Thanks. I have a $40 stock with a $1 dividend coming. Then dividend is paid of $1 to me, and I have a $39 stock. I have to wait until the market price comes up to get any increase? So it's not $1 div. It's whatever amount investors decide the next dividend is worth.

     

    It's solves the arbitrage problem. But you really do have to hold the stock during the whole div earning period -after- the div date to catch up. And only if the stock doesn't lose value for some other reason, like a later div cut.

     

    I held IBM for years and never noticed... and like you, my portfolio went up.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes stocks will gain back the dividend very fast. There has been many occasions where I've seen a stock go ex-div, and gain all of that and more back on the same day.

     

    Pick good stocks is one moral of the story, I guess. :)
    25 Feb 2014, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13851) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH

     

    Additionally since (PSEC) DROPPED the day before the dividend we all will get more shares since the price is lower. Hence it may be a 13% yield right now..!!

     

    JBT...Any opinion on gold or silver / (sorry LOMAH, I had to do it )

     

    Serious question ...An opinion on the next best BDC ? I know TACK listed a few but what is the next on the list in a pecking order and why?
    25 Feb 2014, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (876) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    "Thanks. I have a $40 stock with a $1 dividend coming. Then dividend is paid of $1 to me, and I have a $39 stock. I have to wait until the market price comes up to get any increase?"

     

    Whatever exchange your stock is listed on will drop the price of the stock automatically (theoretically, the company is worth less because they paid a dividend). Then buying and selling of the stock will re-adjust the price.

     

    JBT posted: "Pick good stocks is one moral of the story, I guess. :)"

     

    And that's the important bit!

     

    There's a SA author named Larry Swedroe who argues that dividends aren't important one way or another and to my mind makes a compelling case. But he bases his arguments around MPT and EMH.

     

    1. EMH does not work - it is a hypothesis that can only be disproven - the existance of cefs and the discount/premiums most of these funds exhibit would disprove that hypothesis (to me, anyway).

     

    2. I believe that a dividend received now will have more purchasing power than the equivalent capital gain down the road. I can drip it if I feel the stock/fund is undervalued. I can spend it. I can reinvest it in another opportunity.

     

    3. I still read his articles as I think it's important to hear the other side of the story and check it against my own thinking and results.
    25 Feb 2014, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7

     

    You've got a real knack for research when it comes to investing.

     

    EMH is silly to a bystander. It's like probabilities in math. Sure that's the long term results you'll get. But each coin toss is still 100% one way.

     

    True that earlier payment (div, vs. cap gain) had the power of compounded interest. Though hopefully less divs from the company means more growth investment, so it's own form of compounded value? Gotta decide each stock on it's own.

     

    All this is important to how I'll think about dividend stocks. For one thing, for the rate to matter, you really do have to buy for a longer time period. (Or do that options thing, I've only read of.)
    25 Feb 2014, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Dividends are good if management can invest them at a lower ROIC than you can, adjusted for their unfavorable tax status.

     

    You are just DRIPPING the dividends mind as well have them buy back shares and save taxes and the gain uneven treatment in book value.
    27 Feb 2014, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    It's simple to me....I Do see some "euphoric " type behavior. Can it still go higher? Of course....but it should be a "caution " flag for the prudent investor. Why are investors piling hard into the most spec names? Is this greed...or fear?
    25 Feb 2014, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    A better question is why you want to use Tesla and Facebook as proxies for the entire stock market? Instead, examine NYSE trading volumes, and see how muted they have been for many months, years even. There is no systemic massive rush into equities. This is also evidenced by the fact that P/E's are not particularly extended, either.
    25 Feb 2014, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Last post. Short (X) (CLF) (WLT) (JOY) (EJ) and (GS). Subject to change at any time. Long (TLT) via options.

     

    As stated yesterday more than once, I took the small loss on the high PE shorts, will wait for an appropriate signal there.
    25 Feb 2014, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Is most of your investing through trades like these? Or do you also keep a long term portfolio in stocks? Just curious what a trader tends to.

     

    On China - it's be great to get more info.

     

    If you do want that to be your last post -- then good luck!! See you on SA.
    25 Feb 2014, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    I'm long (X) and selling puts on this drop GL!
    26 Feb 2014, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    No, I will play the long side. I am long (AGNC) and have been since the panic lows in the reits. I was long (Icpt) for several weeks, now I'm out. I was long (gdxj) and (NUGT) for a few weeks, and am out too. (too early)

     

    Just here I am looking for a correction, on which I will buy again. I really dont like the present price level, as an attractive place to buy -- except bonds or related instruments
    25 Feb 2014, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Macro, totally agree with you that there a lot of stocks like (TSLA), (LNKD), (NFLX), (AMZN) that make no sense and they will get corrected eventually.

     

    I feel we will see the overall market pull back in the next few days, as we saw today….the market was all over the place & finally down.

     

    We need to see more reassuring data, for the DOW & S&P to go to new highs. It may take another 6 months to finally see the market trend solidly up again. This is because when the 1st quarter starts getting reported in April, we are sure to see a decline in economic activity, at least for some companies. Blame it on the weather, or perhaps people just being more cautious. Until the number of people getting hired really goes back up, and we see definite signs of people spending money again - the market will continue to list sideways or even go down. Those market pull backs will be great buying opportunities, for those that like to buy good stocks at bargain prices.

     

    I've been reading a lot of articles about economic activity not really picking up until the last part of this year. It's playing out in the markets, lots of people are nervous to buy into stocks now, as many are at 52 week highs. However, there are some stocks that are actually at a good entry point now. F&G has found some good ones, so have I.

     

    Your approach to making money is very opposite of mine, but I enjoy reading your comments & hope you will continue to post.
    25 Feb 2014, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi everyone!

     

    While we might see other posters with posts we don't agree with... can we skip asking them to prove themselves!! and challenging them?

     

    What worked, and what didn't .... is obvious to readers! It doesn't need to be pointed out.

     

    And the contest type comments, aren't comfortable to read. It speaks more to post your own views. And let others grow into communicating theirs.

     

    Thank you everyone for all the great ideas and methods!! I've been enjoying it... and learning tons :) !!

     

    (But I'm still disappointed to figure out how dividends work. <pout, pout>)
    25 Feb 2014, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    But the important thing is... "They work."
    25 Feb 2014, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I had assumed it'd be more like dividends on a bank account... you earn every day and get posted at the end.

     

    Instead everything's break even when they post, and you earn -afterward- day by day. So you're committed to the company for the next time period while gaining those dividends. So it really does have to be a good company and a market positive time period, or a long term hold, to get those dividends... tricky, tricky. You can just take the money and run.

     

    I've been sitting in (PSEC) for a couple weeks. I thought building towards dividends. But not really. I won't get any gain until after dividends are paid, and the stock starts climbing again.
    25 Feb 2014, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    I always look at it as buying future income... I can blow my money, save it in my secret hidey hole, put it in the bank, or put it in an income generating asset.... I choose the later (with a little bit of the first option mixed in from time to time. :))
    25 Feb 2014, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    "buying future income" - is exactly what it is. It's a dividend period more delayed than I'd realized. Like figuring out my cable's billing system the first time.

     

    Blowing it is important to one's sanity! I expect a full report the next time you do (and it's printable in public.) :)
    25 Feb 2014, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    No, no LoMaH!
    I think we should challenge each other, otherwise how would we know whose right? Right now F&G has the biggest voice because his method works and because his method works, he has the right to call out anyone who's wrong. And, anyone whose right has the right to call out anyone whose wrong, that's how we learn. XD

     

    I believe we are here to get advice, and more importantly advices that could make us money. There is no need to worry about people's feelings because he/she is wrong about something. As long as we don't curse at each other, everything is A-OK.

     

    btw, I exited the FAZ trade. Yeah... that was quick but I did make some profit. XD Good luck all.
    26 Feb 2014, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie
    We should definitely share ideas, even when they different from each other!

     

    Maybe because I'm female, I find cooperative conversation where ideas are shared freely and without making it into competition, much more helpful at learning other people's ideas... than doing it in challenge style. It keeps emotions in check, while still getting everyone's ideas on the table for all to judge for themselves & their own needs.
    26 Feb 2014, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Even with the nervousness of the market, we had good news with Macys (M) and Home Depot (HD). It was nice to see them both do well today after reporting earnings.

     

    As a long term investor, I don't let the market swings disrupt my portfolio positions. Yes it's hard to see my stocks lose value. However my investments are for the long term. If I sell out of my stocks & switch to 100% cash, the dividends will be lost. No one can time the market - no one. This is why I buy quality companies when they are "on sale" & hold for the long term, earning dividends as well.

     

    It could be a good idea to take some profits, especially if some of your stocks are at 52 week highs. Don't sell all your shares, if it's a good company that you value for the dividends & long term growth.

     

    If you have some "momentum" or risky stocks, now might be a good time to sell or trim your position. Taking profits is never a bad idea, especially with stocks like (TSLA) etc.
    25 Feb 2014, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    (HD) makes me cry. I sold @ $61.61. :( Still was more than a double for me, so I shouldn't shed too many tears... ;)

     

    I knew it would do well after they ditched that washed-up POS Nardelli... Grrrr... I hated him.
    25 Feb 2014, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    JBT

     

    your (HD) is my (DIS) sold @ 62 (it also was a double for me) it hit 80 yesterday , I Love the company but outfoxed myself in thinking it had run too far --- _LOL

     

    that s part of investing :)
    26 Feb 2014, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Fear & JBT, what you posted is exactly why I hate to sell!!! Every time I do sell, the darn stock goes up. Happened with (LO), (GMCR), etc. etc.

     

    I almost sold some (LMT) and (NOC) yesterday, worrying about these 2 going down with all the talk in DC about cutting the Defense budget. It causes me great anxiety to sell. Even (SBUX) has declined from around $80 but I've held on to every share.

     

    My theory is that (SBUX) will be one of my best holdings, in 20 years. Meanwhile, I lost half my gains so far.

     

    26 Feb 2014, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    i hear ya , but u do know the old saying ,, one never goes broke taking a profit .. :)

     

    & there are always opportunities out there -- :)
    26 Feb 2014, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    JBT

     

    So sad, just doubled :). BTW, how many bitcoins do I need to bribe you with, for you to stay away from (LINE) so it can come back up? Any thoughts on the poor earnings report?
    27 Feb 2014, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH,

     

    Told you - I'm cursed. I buy (LNCO), then someone else in the sector cuts their dividend, and now the "bad" forward guidance from (LINE).

     

    I buy (PSEC), and it gets taken out of the index, thereby triggering rebalancing.

     

    I would have been better off sticking with (WIN) which is now (of course) higher than my sell point.

     

    Hopefully the future will bring brighter days...
    27 Feb 2014, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    JBT

     

    (LINE) also come in under on earnings, not just guidance. But there is plenty of positive in their report. They were cut from Focus Stock to Outperform. Which to me, says buy. With 9% div, there's plenty to like.

     

    I'm teasing by the way - you've made money long term, so obviously your ideas may very well pan out well.
    ...though I'd rather buy after you, so I can buy the dips :).
    27 Feb 2014, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4102) | Send Message
     
    :) It was meant to be a long-term hold, anyways... Now it is for sure. :)
    27 Feb 2014, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I agree with your assessment of (LINE) , i read the conf call transcript, there were many good takeways. U r right, at 9% yield its a nice one to have in a portfolio..
    28 Feb 2014, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On Brazil -

     

    How will Forex exchange rate likely effect these?
    25 Feb 2014, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    I finally got options permission on my account. What was that idea you had? I think it was on (MU).

     

    It's different than Fear's. I'll study both, and see what's right for my situation.
    25 Feb 2014, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    MU not my bag. Must be F&G.
    26 Feb 2014, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie
    How you doing? Hanging in there fine?
    26 Feb 2014, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    Yep, thanks for asking.
    26 Feb 2014, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    I'm pretty much in the BSK camp. I don't see much to buy (my last new purchase was gnc right after earnings @ $44) and I've been trimming positions lately - selling a fair bit into Monday's rally - mostly those stocks I bought on the January swoon. I have the most cash in about two years and while I acknowledge it could be a mistake just don't feel comfortable with the risk/reward of most stocks although I continue to hold core positions.

     

    What keeps me from being bullish are two things. One, the markets ready dismissal that weather is the culprit for the recent poor data. While probably true, what if it isn't? The second is the market is no longer cheap. The 12 month forward p/e is 15.2 for the S&P500, about 10% above the average of the past ten years. Every time I look at the first chart in the following link I ask myself what's the hurry to add?

     

    http://bit.ly/OBTwGx
    26 Feb 2014, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    Harvesting profits never hurt anyone's bottom line .. ;)

     

    26 Feb 2014, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    DD, I think there a re a lot of people out there that are in cash right now.

     

    However, I'm trying every day to find new places to invest. Really mad that I never bought (GOOG), (TSLA) etc. Always thought they were just a tad too high, waiting for them to drop….what a mistake! Both of these companies are leading innovators. They will never go down, looks like.
    26 Feb 2014, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    BSK - When people start to think something will "never go down" it's usually in their last stages. And it's often the last boost up that's wildest.

     

    Take a look at some deferred (jan 2015) put options and consider selling some put(s) on a stock you want to own. And if you think to yourself that selling a Jan 1000 put on goog @ $26 isn't worth the risk (just an example - substitute any stock) - then you know darn well you wouldn't be comfortable holding a long either.
    26 Feb 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    It does if you eventually wind up having to buy into the market at a higher price level.

     

    But I'm unusual in that I've already exceeded my retirement goals and I'm in this more for income and capital preservation so I tend to be risk averse. So if I miss some upside I only kick myself once :)

     

    If I was young and still in the wealth accumulation stage I hope I'd just have the gumption to stick with the trend rather than fussing around with trading.
    26 Feb 2014, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD,
    So if you had a 15-20 year horizon, you'd stay in now and let it ride?
    26 Feb 2014, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    DD it does depend a lot on your age. We won't retire for at least a decade, although we are sort of semi-retired right now.

     

    I don't think it will get any easier to keep track of all the stocks I own now. The day will come soon when putting it all into a mix of bonds, Reits, ETFs etc. just for income will be easier on my brain, and less to worry about.

     

    In our late 50's now & I only started actively managing out portfolios in 2008. Big mistake….if I'd been paying more attention starting 30 years ago, we could be retired now. My husband had a 401k plan that was doing fantastic, until his company tanked and it became a 201k plan. We lost so much money on his old company's stock. What a shame, not actively managing your money is such a big mistake.

     

    The problem was, we were content working away at our jobs, not worrying about the future.

     

    So after living thru the "dot busted" downturn, and then the financial crisis….nothing phases me.

     

    Probably helps that we started with nothing, after getting married in the 80's. I actually like the simple life best.

     

    Surprisingly, we are doing ok ; ) but it's mostly because all those years, I was a major saver and still am.
    26 Feb 2014, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Since I'm "just" 57 I hope I have a 15-20 year time horizon. What I meant is that since we've accumulated more than enough money to live on very comfortably for the rest of our lives I see no reason to take risks. But if I was still 40 without enough for retirement I'd have no choice but to stick with the trend since there would be no other way to achieve my goal.

     

    Old habits die hard with me. In my previous life (I've been retired for quite awhile) I analyzed and traded commodities. My greatest successes were in putting on positions where I felt there was very little risk downside - not when I expected to make a great deal of money. I've transferred that mindset to the stock market. It's not that I see any major warning flags now (whoever does?), but my appetite now for holding stocks at the current level has diminished. After 2008 (where I was lucky to only lose 8% of our capital) I really can't trust the market since I'm always wondering what might be lurking out there. It was easier holding larger long positions when the market p/e was low relative to historical values, but that's no longer the case.

     

    I still hold what most would consider hefty stock length, and I've replaced a portion of my holdings with call options that are fairly cheap, and short downside puts in stocks I'd like to own lower, but feel more comfortable heavily in cash for the moment.
    26 Feb 2014, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, saving is the key. I'm your age and my husband and I married in 1979 with nothing as well but we both had good jobs and always lived below our means. When I was given the ability to trade in my last job I managed to make enough to allow us to retire young - and then had a son in 2000 (the only downside was a few people questioning where he was my grandson when he was a baby).

     

    I never traded a stock in my life prior to 2005 but it was fairly easy to pick it up given my background in economics and trading. It seemed really easy for awhile until 2008 where I got lucky and managed to get out with only an 8% loss for the year. I don't feel as uncomfortable as I did in May 2008 when I liquidated pretty much everyting, but after living through that I'm no longer as sanguine. Since we don't need the money and the stock market isn't cheap any longer I figure why take the risk with big holdings.
    26 Feb 2014, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    DD you did well in the 2008 mess, congratulations!

     

    That's great to be retired now. Wealth protection is very important, good to be in that position.
    26 Feb 2014, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I consider myself very fortunate.

     

    I grew up on the poor side - one of six children and a first generation American. Many of my working years are a blur since I put in 60 hour weeks and sometimes brought home work for the weekend - but it paid off through a combination of hard work and luck.
    26 Feb 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DancingD

     

    I'm slightly younger, but only 1/2 way to retirement funds. So I need growth. In a few years, I'll be wanting to do the same - start protecting capital.

     

    Interesting that reducing risk was the biggest factor for success. It'd be nice to see if that holds true for stocks too.

     

    Any good stories from the trading floor?
    27 Feb 2014, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    http://on.mktw.net/NwV0kk

     

    Chart of the day.
    26 Feb 2014, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    (GS)......
    26 Feb 2014, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GS) is coming down today... good for you. And for Newbie.

     

    My (TGT) was green very briefly for the first time since I bought it. Nice to see it can wear green, to go with it's traditional red.
    26 Feb 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    L,
    (TGT) will wear a lot of green for you, just a matter of time :)

     

    (BBBY) , continues its move off the lows.. maybe time to sell the Apr 70 calls and write a nice dividend check ..
    26 Feb 2014, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Positive economic news --

     

    "Homebuilders cheer big new home sales number

     

    Brutal winter weather has been the excuse for a long string of weak economic stats this year, but not January New Home Sales, which surged 9.6% from December to a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 468K - a 5-year high. Expectations were for a drop to 400K. December sales were revised higher from 414K to 427K.
    The median sales price rose 3.4% Y/Y to $260,100."
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Commenter is suggesting (HOV) will take advantage of the trend.
    26 Feb 2014, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Lomah, I would rather put my $ in the growth stocks. Just started small positions in (GOOG) (FB) & (SCTY) today. I'm watching (TSLA), (PCLN) (KORS) (WDAY) (TWTR).

     

    So I buy just a few shares. Then wait for a little pull back, when I'll buy more. Every week, I'm putting a little cash to work - even when the market is not down. If it's down, I'll double or triple up on purchases.

     

    This market just won't quit. I'm expecting the DOW to go up to 17,000 plus by the end of the year, S&P, Nasdaq will be up similar %'s.

     

    Yesterday CNBC had an author on that just wrote a book about the US & innovation. Sorry, didn't catch his name. It's a theme that makes sense to me. Look at the US and our companies, Google, Tesla, Apple….the list goes on. We lead the world. So his message is that we will innovate our way up, the future is limitless. I totally agree!

     

    That's why I'm now looking for the companies that represent innovation, and I'm a buyer.
    26 Feb 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    L,
    Not a bad report--

     

    many were already citing the prior reports on housing and declaring it was about to crash again,, this should put the brakes on to some of that thinking..
    26 Feb 2014, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    Lomah,

     

    I'm in that business and I've gone on record to state the reports of a pending housing collapse were and are way overblown. The market might be having issue in certain geographical areas, but where I'm at it's moving forward. I still stand by my assertion that what I feel is/was the issue here was the lack of available lots.

     

    I will still disclose though it is nowhere near what we were seeing 10-15 years ago.
    26 Feb 2014, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    You have more guts than I - the tech space is too hard for me since you really have to be on top of all the competitors.

     

    I like Kors - a stock I was long and got out around $92 after the last earnings report - but I took the money and ran since it has a tendency of trading more or less sideways until the next earnings release and didn't want to risk a market downturn. Besides, it's not cheap anymore. And after this blowout I think expectations are likely to be too high.
    26 Feb 2014, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Be careful about being too enthusiastic.

     

    http://cnb.cx/1gCKUqx
    26 Feb 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    I don't mind your writing's Blue Sky, but they remind me of Abbey Joseph Cohen writing in the late 1990's about the US being "Supertanker America" -- and that the issues in the emerging world at the time could not touch America.

     

    That didn't work out so good as in 1998 the US have a really nasty correction. Felt like the end of the world. We are so interconnected.
    26 Feb 2014, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    5 (potential), persistent Warning signals: Swiss Franc, Gold, Treasuries (all up) , Financials, Transports (both weak). -- Oh -- and Copper weak too, while Soybeans going parabolic. Spiking food prices are not a great thing.
    26 Feb 2014, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    I believe it is still going to crash because at some places, like New York, it never went down, at all. XD
    26 Feb 2014, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't say I'm enthusiastic, more like realistic. They even mention in the link you've provided that one problem is inventory. That's what I stated above.
    26 Feb 2014, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    :) are the soybean prices due to winter weather too, lol. Could be?
    27 Feb 2014, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    Cwinn

     

    Your observations on this have been helpful. It shouldn't be at full recovery yet - that'd be odd if it was. But good to know it's moved forward... real observation vs. official stats provided.
    27 Feb 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD
    I'm thinking the same on (KORS). Very nice run, but it's got to consolidate a bit. Also with fashion, it's may be hot but that will swing.
    27 Feb 2014, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF,

     

    This puzzled me. You've been buying DGIs and undervalued growth. Now you're moving into speculative, overvalued growth? Long term they very well may be hits that will pay well. Wouldn't it make sense to wait for some inevitable market or stock pullback before then (they grow into their valuations), to get in?
    27 Feb 2014, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH,

     

    You recently asked about cyclicals

     

    here is an article from one of the best authors here..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Feb 2014, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (TCAP)
    This of course is the BDC I opted to buy with the drop, instead of one of the others... This doesn't look good... No trading after hours. Any thoughts?

     

    Triangle Capital misses by $0.02, misses on revenue
    Triangle Capital (TCAP): Q4 NII of $0.48 misses by $0.02.
    Revenue of $22M (-11.9% Y/Y) misses by $1.6M.

     

    Net investment income of $13.2M falls 14.8% from $15.5M a year ago. NII per share of $0.48 slides from $0.57. The declines come as the investment portfolio shrinks amid repayments amid investment realizations ($18.4M in net realized long-term gains in 2013), with new originations not keeping up.

     

    Net asset value per share of $16.10 up from $15.30 a year ago. Weighted average yield on investments of 14.1% is off 50 bps from a year ago.
    26 Feb 2014, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I can't comment on them as I don't follow , Im sure Tack can help u there..

     

    BUT i can comment on one of my own rules , I rarely,if ever, buy anything within a few days of an earnings announcement .....

     

    Way too many surprises.. both Up & Down..
    26 Feb 2014, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "I rarely,if ever, buy anything within a few days of an earnings announcement"

     

    Yep, if I'd realized the announcement was coming I wouldn't have bought - would have gotten (PSEC) instead.

     

    They had announced special dividends of .15 in March and again around June. So if I simply plan to hold long term, this should work out fine. Conference call is tomorrow morning.
    26 Feb 2014, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    understood ,
    i often got blindsided by not realizing when earnings were due,,

     

    A tip : every stock i own and every stock on my radar list has the earnings date next to it and that cell in the spreadsheet is highlighted in bright yellow ..

     

    I don't miss any of them now.. :)
    26 Feb 2014, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Q: Does testing upper resistance over & over, increases the odds that it will break through higher? Or make it more likely to break downward? (S&P's doing)
    26 Feb 2014, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @LoMaH
    Something or someone is pushing the market up that's how I feel. Do you remember we had a housing bubble in 2007? What changed in the last 7 years that warrant a rise above that level?
    26 Feb 2014, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    S&P earnings are significantly higher than in 2007. Over the long haul earnings and interest rates (ie, how attractive are bonds relative to stocks) are the two major components of the level of the S&P. Earnings for 2014 are expected to be about $120 vs. $82.5 in 2007.

     

    http://bit.ly/w4jRpw~adamodar/New_Home_Pag...
    27 Feb 2014, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Usually testing a resistance or support level over & over leads to a breakthru to the other side---

     

    Unfortunately that doesn't come with a guarantee :)

     

    anyone with a trader hat should wait for the signal ,

     

    investors just need to watch for opportunities that are there ,
    27 Feb 2014, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    I have written many times its all about earnings

     

    Regardless of all of the debates here and elsewhere about opinions on the markets..

     

    The S & P just recorded record earnings ..

     

    so to oversimplify , if that trend continues , stocks move higher , if they don't we stall and move lower..

     

    In the meantime look for companies that are beating estimates , raising their guidance and raising their dividends.. When the dust settles , they will be higher than they are today ..
    27 Feb 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1126) | Send Message
     
    >Do you remember we had a housing bubble in 2007?

     

    The problem with most investors is that they never forget, and it poisons their returns going forward, permanently.

     

    People have been calling for another crash since 2009.
    27 Feb 2014, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @dnorm
    Rest assured I am not one of those people calling for a crash since 2009. I am one of those people calling for a crash since 2007. LOL XD

     

    I changed my mind later that year and got whacked. Right now, the market gives me that feel again...

     

    Anyway, what do you suggest to do right now and most importantly buy what? (Everything seems overpriced) XP
    27 Feb 2014, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Newbie
    Ouch. No wonder you're looking over your shoulder... Hope you've been in the market since for the climb back up.

     

    I got to SA last year and saw articles and comments about impending crash. The backed up and looked at the -really bigger- picture. We had a recession. We're out of the woods of "will our economy system completely collapse?" We're not yet at happy, healthy, and fat cat lazy about guarding against risks, that allow for the crash-trigger events. We'll go up and down... but in a slow steady climb up. That's how I answered the question for myself. (In 2007 - Buy a house that's 40% monthly of my salary, sure, my job's salary increases are secure...)

     

    Dancing Diva's data, though, is a great concrete answer! The video keeps freezing my computer so I haven't watched it yet (I'll try again in another browser.)

     

    Market is a leading indicator in economy (forward looking to what earnings will be), while unemployment is a trailing indicator (takes a while to then feel confident hiring for more expansion).
    27 Feb 2014, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Thanks! That's what I expected. One author described -- and I'd expect, there's usually a dip back down as people especially traders "get even and out", before the climb back up. ...except this market last year didn't do those dips very much...

     

    Good idea on earnings -- in general, my research would benefit from more organization and a table. I'm going to start doing that.

     

    Thanks for the cyclic info too. Half of reading investing articles, has been learning the terms.
    27 Feb 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    (KOF) is trading at a great discount to intrinsic value time to load up
    27 Feb 2014, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    US treasuries continue to hold like a rock, questioning the "economy is strengthening" view. Regardless of any current economic release, I am not smarter than the trillions of investment dollars chasing the long bonds higher. This is institutional money, and it's important to consider the long term message.

     

    The yield curve continues to flatten, which besides an economic signal by itself, is negative for financials. I'll be increasing my short on the financials today.
    27 Feb 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "The yield curve continues to flatten..."

     

    http://tinyurl.com/3jo...
    27 Feb 2014, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1126) | Send Message
     
    >The yield curve continues to flatten, which besides an economic signal by itself, is negative for financials.

     

    Great signal, but I think you're way too early.
    27 Feb 2014, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Macro
    Hum...you might want to look at that yield curve Tack provided. >_< However I do see the market going down because I see a double top. (although the top could be higher, and I think something is stopping it from dropping)

     

    Anyway, I think it would be better to pick up some valued stocks after a pull back, which I am sure would happen (hopefully),instead of shorting it for now. XP
    27 Feb 2014, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    NT:

     

    Just an added point about yield curves:

     

    Yield curves flatten and then sometimes invert in the late stages of economic expansion when growth rates and inflation cause the Fed to attempt to quell the party by raising short-term rates. Finally, as the economy slows, the long-term rates contract, even as the short-term rates continue to rise. They may or may not invert.

     

    The point being, does any of this sound like the current economy or Fed behavior? In fact, short rates have been falling, of late.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    the "double top "theory in the S & P was negated today when the S & P made a new high ..

     

    If the S & P clears the 1858 level, the intraday high , it might set up a run to 1900
    27 Feb 2014, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Great description - and chart - thanks!

     

    Raises a question - there's been inflation in groceries and consumer staples. Yet, no evidence of a heating up economy with enough inflation to keep the Fed happy. How does that consumer inflation fit in?
    27 Feb 2014, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    Hopefully not yet. I just started shorting (TSLA) XD

     

    What would you buy if the market continue up and more importantly, what would you buy if the market crashes from here? Thanks XD
    27 Feb 2014, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Newbie

     

    i'll answer the second part of your question by saying If the market drops from here I will evaluate prices at that time.. then decide what to buy ...I'l have a long list at that time ......

     

    as a start though u can watch these and certainly buy them on any weakness ......

     

    Right now - I would but (MU) ,, anywhere from 23.50 - 24.. My first target is 30.

     

    I recently bought (ALR) @ 34.50 its a conservative play that can be bought on weakness - my target 43..

     

    (RIG) is under valued and just raised their div to $3 , that's a 7% yield at the current price..

     

    (AR) oil/gas play it popped up to $60 today after a good earnings report

     

    huge growth ahead -- target of 75
    27 Feb 2014, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    In my own view, the consumer staples and food businesses have increasingly become oligopolies and are selling mostly completely indispensable products. They, of all companies, should have pricing leverage.
    27 Feb 2014, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @F&G

     

    I keep forgetting, your picks are always mid to high range. They work out though, so I will definitely keep an eye out for them. Thanks.

     

    What do you think about (ARR)? 14% yield under $5? XD
    27 Feb 2014, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Newbie ,

     

    i don't follow that one..

     

    but i always raise an eyebrow , when i see that kind of yield..

     

    therefore u have to do some research before dipping in..

     

    u can also look at some of my fav's for '14 that i mentioned in Dec.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Some of them have run up pretty good ,but they may be candidates to be bought down the road if they pull back..
    28 Feb 2014, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    Thanks! XD
    28 Feb 2014, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    SHORT TSLA 258. There ; record that.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1126) | Send Message
     
    Brave man!

     

    Tons of Tesla articles circulating the online media, including three on the front page of Hacker News. The TSLA marketing machine is in full force.

     

    Both Tesla and TSLA are fascinating, for different reasons.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    That stock just jumped 25% in a week so good luck with that. XD
    27 Feb 2014, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » dnorm1234

     

    Welcome! Good to see you :).

     

    So what do you like about Tesla (the car)? I was in an electric vehicle club a while back. Everyone drooled when they were mentioned. I got to show one off at a car show - but not drive it.

     

    Interesting point on marketing.... and it's a story, media loves!
    27 Feb 2014, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @LoMaH
    You were in one? Oh come ON! Why didn't you mention this before? So? How's the button? Did you like it? How's the interior? How's the exterior? Mileage? Did you like it? Love it? Would you buy more than one? Is it that much better than other brand like Ford or Toyota? I am shorting Tesla right now. Originally, I wanted to first drive one before I decide what to do with it but then they are basically banned in 48 states, and I though maybe or rather Tesla stock shouldn't be more expensive then Toyota...
    You should've definitely said something before. >_<!
    27 Feb 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Tack...

     

    I think you might like the bonds on (RT) the YTM is 9.9% CUSIP: 781182AB6
    27 Feb 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    YG:

     

    Thanks.

     

    Like these even better:

     

    underlying stock ticker = DLLR
    cusip = 637004AC6
    coupon = 10.2%
    redeem in just under three years
    27 Feb 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Haha!

     

    I have DLLR on my list of 52 week lows to review, haven't had the time yet.

     

    That cusip is showing up for a "national money mart" is it a subsidiary?
    27 Feb 2014, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    YG:

     

    Wholly-owned sub.
    27 Feb 2014, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Is it recourse to (DLLR)?
    27 Feb 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    YG:

     

    I believe yes. DFC was going to redeem the notes, but decided not to do so now:

     

    http://bit.ly/1cczSvj
    27 Feb 2014, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Short (GMCR) 114.50
    27 Feb 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    Hum... Green Mountain is teamed up with Coca cola, once they start selling in vending machines across the world (at least, everyone thinks so) In short term... you could get hurt. Anyway, good luck. XD
    27 Feb 2014, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Financial I shorted this morning is (C) at 48
    27 Feb 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Short (AMZN), 357
    27 Feb 2014, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Added to (TLT) call position. I have a major bet long bonds will strengthen in the coming months.
    27 Feb 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Gosh I wish there was a good way to take the other side of that trade :/

     

    (TLT) will be at 80 in 1-2 years.
    27 Feb 2014, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Sure you can. Buy (TBT) its the inverse product. Post here when you do it.
    27 Feb 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    (TBT) decays too much for it to be a useful trade, in 2011 it was a useful trade.
    27 Feb 2014, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Then simply short (TLT) or buy long dated puts.
    27 Feb 2014, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    added to (TSLA) short 252
    27 Feb 2014, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Macro do you beat the S&P long term?
    27 Feb 2014, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    Macro
    How did you get into trading, over long term investing? For the fun of it - or have you seen better (worse?) returns this way?
    27 Feb 2014, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    I've been trading long enough to recognize the environment we are currently in. Absolutely no -one wants to be seller.

     

    Every active investor is terrified not to be short as I am, but to be flat and miss gains. There is zero fear or respect for risk. Money is flowing into the most speculative stocks without concern. Euphoria is tangible.

     

    We made a new high in the SPX today, but only 6% of the components made a new high. Terrible breadth. This the sheer opposite of 2009 when no-one wanted to be a buyer.

     

    I'll tell you the action in treasuries, the Yen, and other markets are not only forecasting a nasty correction but a real economic slowdown. They don't ring nice bells near market tops.

     

    Btw I write all this as a log of my own thoughts, from doing this every day for many years. I am hearing stuff from 1999. Of course, what month....who knows. Might be early here. Then I'll lose for awhile, and the short sighted will ridicule those like me for missed gains.

     

    I don't mind because investing isn't a popularity contest. The ridicule likely means I'm correct, because anyone bearish -- or cautious -- anywhere is being ridiculed.

     

    We have an absolutely massive bubble in complacency. Total, mind blowing bubble. Risk doesn't exist.

     

    I do not buy in such environments. End of story.
    27 Feb 2014, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I feel compelled to offer a rejoinder to your categorical claims:

     

    "Absolutely no one wants to be a seller."

     

    No one has wanted to be a seller for years, not some new "euphoric" development. This recovery and rally has been detested and doubted since Day One. The fundamental reasons why selling has been muted, the whole way, even when "scary" news has been trumpeted in the headlines, is because the market has not had the broad, but shallow, participation that sees lots of holders, who lack conviction or experience. Many of these folks have not entered the market, even now. Also, there is a veritable ocean of capital that, presently, is in cash and other asset classes, rather than equities, so it's difficult to mount a selling frenzy against such available liquidity.

     

    You say in almost the same breath that there's no concern for risk, but then claim that Treasuries, Yen and "other markets" (no idea what they are) are forecasting a correction and economic slowdown. Well, when there's no concern for risk, alternate investments don't forecast anything. And, if one looks at the chart (TNX) of the 10-year Treasury, one can see that it forecasted almost nothing in the lead up to 2000 or during the run-up to 2007's reversals.

     

    "We made a new high in the SPX today, but only 6% of the components made a new high."

     

    How is narrow breadth and continued low volume a sign of no-holds-barred market-wide euphoria? Instead, it's more of the same that we've seen the whole way up, low volumes, doubt and caution.

     

    The speculative euphoria you cite is limited to a relative handful of stocks. We don't see any sudden steepening of the slope of NASDAQ stocks, as a whole. In the last two years NASDAQ is within 3% of the growth of the SPX.

     

    It's very, very instructive to look at the 5-year SPX chart. What's important to note is the almost monotonous pattern of gradual advances, amid occasional dips, but no surges in the slope of the graph nor explosions in volume.

     

    "I'll lose for awhile, and the short sighted will ridicule those like me for missed gains."

     

    Those who keep making gains and dividends in a market that, looking at corporate performance and P/E's, is not irrational are "shortsighted?" What's shortsighted has been being short.

     

    Lastly, you seem to think the only choices are finding some issue to trade short or two-fisted blind buying of the market. In fact, astute investors engage in neither of these behaviors. They calmly maintain a diversified portfolio and adjust balances between asset types and sectors, as conditions change.

     

    The kind of frantic, blind-buying, no-fear market you imagine simply doesn't exist presently. Handpicking a few overpriced stocks might offer the chance at selected gains, if your timing is exquisite, but the broad-based collapse you keep suggesting isn't supported by the data or the market's overall behavior.

     

    27 Feb 2014, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Its very simple then-- don't buy ,

     

    i agree its not a popularity contest at all its about the bottom line and creating wealth..

     

    U apparently hang around a different crowd of investors than i do..

     

    What is a nasty correction?

     

    I have stated many times that we could see a 15% correction,, and that would NOT be ABNORMAL , in a bull market..
    What is the issue if that's what may happen ??

     

    many that i know are positioned for that possibility including myself .. everyone i know is cautious , has raised cash, no one is all in..

     

    sure the bubble stocks will get taken out - so what

     

    that effects a tiny part of the overall market and u make it sound like its every tech stock on the nasdaq thats in a bubble

     

    (TSLA) lost $78 in their last correction .. unless u are in TSLA who cares

     

    and it didn't affect the S & p -- didn't i just show u that ?
    27 Feb 2014, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Everyone on SA who's commented about how in/out they are, has said they've raised cash. So risk does currently exist in investors' minds. I've heard the same on CNBC. If you read upward in the blog, BSF and DD had a conversation about the current risk level.

     

    Thanks for explaining why you're trading now. The environment has you moving away from long term investing. Have you always traded, or did you do long term investing before?
    27 Feb 2014, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Last comment tonight. Likely catalyst is China.

     

    And yes to be short a 15% correction would be fabulous.

     

    Yes I've always been a trader.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Macro
    China can not be the catalyst. It's a closed system. It has a humongous dollar reserve and it tells you that it would print money if it feels like it.

     

    I believe the next catalyst is either Japan or a cold war. XP (I sense a bunch of people shaking their heads... Oh well...) :3
    28 Feb 2014, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    NT:

     

    First paragraph right on the money.
    28 Feb 2014, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    (TUES) is a good short
    28 Feb 2014, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    You've stated you wish to take the opposite and short long term bonds. I've given you several ways to take that trade -- unless it's just talk of course.
    27 Feb 2014, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Macro
    Of course it's all talk right now. It's always going to be all talk until you make a convincing case. Just like how you shorted GS, I went with you. XP now I dropped out (after some profit) because that case doesn't seem valid much more. But please, make your suggestion heard, so we could all make some money. XD
    27 Feb 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    I may short (TLT) directly need to see if its the best use of my money or if I can get a better rate of return elsewhere.
    27 Feb 2014, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro,
    it's okay if it's just talk ... that's what the blog is... a chance to bat around thoughts & ideas. Thanks for the ideas on how to short, for those who decide to so on something!

     

    I agree long term bond rates are going up. The economy is stablizing, even growing... and with it, these will go up. I'm not going to bet on it though - not an area I have nearly enough experience in (short term bond movements.)
    27 Feb 2014, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    LOMH;

     

    I am betting on LOWER long term rates.
    27 Feb 2014, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    (TSLA) ready to crack here. I've added a little more to the short. Confirmed below 249
    27 Feb 2014, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro
    "long bonds will strengthen"
    I thought you meant rates strengthen, you meant bond fund price goes up, rates down?
    Guess I'm on the opposite side on this, with YG.

     

    Good success with (TSLA)! There is a lot of exuberance going on with it this very recently.... signs of a crack coming...
    27 Feb 2014, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Gotta be impressed with the market strength. I think its a hope the Fed will stop the taper. It's very difficult to fight a drug addiction, and thats what this is. Yellen refused to take a pause "off the table", boom up we go.

     

    I've covered the AMZN for -2, added to the (GMCR) short at 113. They are taking money from coke at $75, and using the funds to buy back shares right here at 113! Lunacy!
    27 Feb 2014, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Macro
    LOL I am starting to short (TSLA) at 255. XP
    27 Feb 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    Anyone paid attention to whether the market tends to pull back at some point in the prior tapers or QE endings?
    27 Feb 2014, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    LMH (and anybody else who cares):

     

    Taper has and will have ZERO to do with market moves. It had its 15 minutes of hysteria last year for almost the entire second half.

     

    Taper is not going to be reversed, and its occurrence isn't going to have a gnat's eyelash worth of impact on the economy.
    27 Feb 2014, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Prove with references Tapering has no effect on market moves. Defend that statement.

     

    You realize the increase in the Fed's balance sheet has an almost perfect correlation with the SPX?

     

    Can you explain this?
    27 Feb 2014, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    Tack,

     

    I wasn't trying to ask if QE has a qualitative effect on the market. Merely if there's been a movement down in the past rounds as they've ended. I wasn't paying attention. I can look at charts - but firsthand ringside seats are likely to have a better recall of how it went.

     

    I certainly wasn't suggesting tapering would be reversed. I was sure it'd be started in Nov when the bets were mostly that it wouldn't be. And am sure it will keep on going except if something dramatic changes (geopolitical event or equivalent huge economic event).

     

    Taper got it's moment of fame, but there are plenty of investors who still think it's worth a reaction. I may not think so, but they're part of the pool I'm swimming in. So I'm curious how it went in the past...
    27 Feb 2014, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    LOMH,

     

    Everyone will have a different opinion. My advice is to form your own through observation and research.
    27 Feb 2014, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I could never "prove" anything to your satisfaction. You have already decided that the market is about to collapse and you trade this theory in your posts daily.

     

    The fact that the QE is immediately funneled back into excess reserves is ample evidence that it's doing very little. Even the Fed realizes this and is backing off. Initially, this provoked panic, but, of course, that's now passed, as the economy keep chugging along. And, why would stopping something that's already in excess cause a problem, if these funds are not supporting any new credit formation?

     

    Correlation and causation are two different things. Apparently, you fall in the camp of those that think the economy has been suspended in thin air by QE. I don't because the actual data on the disposition of these funds doesn't support that conclusion, and the performance of corporate enterprise suggests that the economy is performing, thereby supporting the market's valuation.

     

    Nobody on Earth can "prove" that QE or its removal will have no effect. It's my opinion based on data. Feel free to bet I'm wrong.
    27 Feb 2014, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    Ben Bernake said QE was no longer having an appreciable effect. Back in May 2013. I remember, & being impressed that he'd be that honest.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Correlation is not causation, always remember that.
    28 Feb 2014, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » YG,

     

    Very true! In science too...

     

    I had a typo. "I remember, and was impressed that he'd be that honest."
    28 Feb 2014, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    Panic is good. The important thing here is whether or not the stock market would jerk, when and by how much. For us, the reasons behind the jerk well...~ not as important as correctly predicting the jerk, I think. XD (Let's leave those for the academics and talking heads on TV)

     

    @Tack

     

    I also think the economy has been suspended in the air by QE but whether or not the economy has recovered enough that it would crash after QE ends, I don't know. But, what I am sure is that the market would go down if QE ends right now (It would be better to discuss exactly when and by how much this would happen) A lot of money could be made on this one. I believe XD
    28 Feb 2014, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    I would add that correlations are EXTREMELY important to an investor who wants to outperform the averages.

     

    But if you can't tell a logical story, of a plausible. cause or at least have a correlation that works over 20 years, then watch out.
    28 Feb 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    L,
    i'll stay with what i have stated all along -- I'm not worried or obsessed with the Fed, many can believe its all fed induced I continue to state those that have stated that have had the entire market story incorrect..

     

    The fed has reduced purchases by 25 % ---- the S& P just made a new high .. Many said the fed would NEVER taper, then they said the market would crash when the fed did start to taper.. Well here we are ..

     

    its all about earnings and the improving economy -- IF that continues , the market goes higher, regardless of the fed..

     

    27 Feb 2014, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    FG, treasuries action do not indicate an improving economy.
    27 Feb 2014, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Those that are obsessed with the fed have not paid attention to what is happening around them and they have had the story on the equity market wrong for quite some time now ..

     

    Believe what u wish about the economy ,

     

    I've laid out my strategy based on all of the facts that i have stated here for quite some time now .
    http://bit.ly/ZuafPa

     

    When i see issues that will change my view of the LT picture , i will do so

     

    I don't see a need for that just yet..
    27 Feb 2014, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Who cares what anyone has said in the past, and if they were right or wrong?

     

    The question is, in an "improving economy" , why are 30 year bonds absolutely on fire now?
    27 Feb 2014, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    "FG, treasuries action do not indicate an improving economy."

     

    Well would doubling staff over the last 18 month indicate an improving economy? And that staff is involved in land development (commercial, residential, and industrial).
    27 Feb 2014, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Cwinn

     

    yes ,i believe your example shows an improving economy

     

    some may agree with me and others still have the blinders on..
    27 Feb 2014, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    FG - I just don't get it? I don't think people understand, there was NOTHING going on for about a year. We were on the verge of a total collapse. At this time, things are nowhere near a collapse. IMO, this recovery is different, it's been slow and steady. Nowhere near the exuberance that you saw going into the meltdown.
    27 Feb 2014, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Why are treasuries rallying?
    27 Feb 2014, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14574) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    The only thing that the recent pattern for Treasuries suggests is that the prior hysteria that accompanied the tapering talk was misguided, resulting in lots of overselling of all kinds of yield issues. That over-reaction is simply correcting itself.
    27 Feb 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    Cwinn

     

    I think it's a much slower recovery than normal. As a result, the fears had a chance to take on life, and keep living. Now we're in a real, slow, ongoing recovery.

     

    Macro
    I don't know what this means:
    "The question is, in an "improving economy" , why are 30 year bonds absolutely on fire now?"

     

    Bonds aren't on fire. They've been in a range, a little perkier lately once there was a slew of positive economic data in Nov & Dec. If bonds were on fire why would that mean -not- improved economy. Higher lending rates means, more demand for loans, means more expansion, i.e. better economy.
    27 Feb 2014, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    u r right, the economy isn't improving, stocks are overvalued and we're going to retest the lows..

     

    BUT I wont position myself that way, i will get crushed, my entire life savings will be wiped out ,i'll have to go on food stamps ..

     

    27 Feb 2014, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Well, I'm long a lot of calls on TLT , and that position is on fire. You don't often see treasuries up every day during a stock rally. Someone's wrong. In my experience it won't likely be bonds.

     

    Bonds don't speak to today's economy. They are a forecasting tool.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    So IT where's the regular metals updates? Chirp, chirp?
    27 Feb 2014, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    Any thoughts on Yellen?

     

    She seemed happy, composed, well-spoken, thoughtful, had a grasp of the topics thrown out in questions with pre-thought opinions.

     

    She also seemed politically & Fed savvy at saying things in ways that leaves lots of doors open, and room to "feel confident" while supporting whatever view you wanted to hear.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    She'll be fine...
    28 Feb 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    She's way over her head. JMO.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Watch the Yen, and Chinese Yuan, which is tanking hard.

     

    This is a problem. Potentially. It is an interconnected world. You need to follow all markets.
    27 Feb 2014, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    Why is a weakening of the CNY bearish?
    28 Feb 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    I too look at the yen and also see some problems there, but I like many Japanese companies, especially their tech sector that deals with power suits and robots

     

    http://bit.ly/1loAbWs
    http://bit.ly/1loAbWt

     

    http://bit.ly/1loAz7y

     

    BUT I HATE JAPAN!!! >_< Their leader Shinzo Abe wants to hyper-inflate the yen that would surly cause some calamities.

     

    How do I invest in these companies without risking it all in Japan? >_<
    28 Feb 2014, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    From Schaeffer Resaerch this morning :

     

    Short interest on SPX components is near a multi-year high, that shows there is the potential for a lot of short covering to drive things higher over the coming months. Then -- considering March and April have been two of the strongest months going back the past 20 years -- seasonality looks nice here.

     

    I will add -- No reason to go all in here as the S& p made new highs , but that is a positive fact that may effect the next short term. MAny have pointed out the divergence in the averages and warned that the small caps were not performing and highlighted that issue as a problem for the entire market going forward. So I note the Russell 2000 (RUT) and the S & P 400 Midcap (MID) also made new highs yesterday , . For now we can take that off the table.

     

    The financials and the Dow 30 are laggards..

     

    IF they get a bid as money rotates back into those sectors, it will be a positive going forward..  as leadership is rotating through the sectors.
    
    28 Feb 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Can't argue with the strength of the tape. They want to buy, buy, buy. Breadth is suspicious though, as are financials and trannies. My shorts are badly lagging the tape -- so am standing pat I suppose.
    28 Feb 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Utopian tape. Good news is good news, bad news is good news too.
    28 Feb 2014, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Such a weird tape. Look at Ford and GM stock. They look awful. What's the issue?
    28 Feb 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    a weird tape as u call it , is in my view called rotation among sectors and leadership ..

     

    (F) went from 8 to 17 in a year , Gm went from 18 to 42

     

    it's a simple corrective phase...

     

    The Weekly chart of GM is in a solid uptrend ,

     

    As to the euphoria issue, i find it ironic that if (f) and (gm) were not correcting but continued unabated to higher highs , the doubters would tell me that is a red flag.

     

    Now that they entered into a corrective phase , its also a called red flag that the overall market is vulnerable

     

    .. My point is that the doubters cant have it both ways .....

     

    If one wants to find issues , they are out there every day ..

     

    Sector rotation and change of leadership is about the best thing any LT bull could wish to see..

     

    The new highs on the S & P ,(RUT) (MID) is a good short term sign..

     

    The new highs Adv/Decline i mentioned is not even mentioned anywhere yet its a good indicator of strength.

     

    So i dont see the good news, bad news is good news chants that a lot of people hang their hat on when the market isn't going in the direction they believe it should..

     

    Many factors are showing otherwise and they are typically ignored.. ..
    28 Feb 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    How do you determine GM is in a solid weekly uptrend? I just charted it and it's broken a 2 year upchannel.

     

    I actually might short GM and leave TSLA alone, as valuation shorts don't work.
    28 Feb 2014, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6782) | Send Message
     
    Here's a link -- the data points are weeks not days --

     

    I just posted it here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Feb 2014, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Marco
    When you look at the chart GM is definitely going down, but I believe the time it would take for it to get down would probably burn you. That's if it's going down at all, as you know it has more than a hundred years history. When a company stands for over a century, you know it has good management (it wouldn't have lasted this long) and more importantly market share. Something of a giant, wouldn't go down unless something grievous afflicts directly.

     

    (TSLA) is different. First of all, it went parabolic. Second, it's a new technology. It's banned or very limited in 48 of the 50 states. It's still working on it's "giga factory" And the problem right now is that this company sounds like Russian. XP

     

    Good luck. XD
    28 Feb 2014, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Covered TLSA at a modest profit, most of (GS) at a modest loss, reduced other shorts at modest profits today. I have to respect the strength of the SPX breakout. I am modestly net short now only. Most of my shorts are down on the day today, but I would want to see broad selling before increasing exposure.
    28 Feb 2014, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Mac, I just don't see panic selling any time soon.

     

    There's too many investors that start buying, every pull back we've seen that happening. Still lots of cash on the sidelines.

     

    Maybe the people that panic sell are out of the market, like F&G said.

     

    I am a different breed. All during the last big crash in 2009, I never sold anything. Just kept on buying.

     

    Worked out okay in the end, but then I always had faith in the markets coming back. If you buy quality, it won't go bankrupt.
    28 Feb 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2249) | Send Message
     
    Plus I think the economy will just keep chugging along….it's getting better every month.

     

    Meanwhile, you can make money on the volatility, which you seem to be very good at.

     

    Last summer, I started trading (DUST) & (NUGT). Just looked at the daily news, the problems in Syria, etc. & placed my bets on gold going up or down. It worked out very well, as over all I made over $50,000 in just a few months. It was very dangerous tho. I've stayed out since, as once you keep "playing" the casino, eventually the casino wins.

     

    If you play the stock market like a gambler, it is risky. Every day, you could be risking a lot. Staying on that razor's edge can take a toll on your health too.

     

    I like investing for the long term, in quality companies that are making money. If there is market volatility, that's great. I just buy more.
    28 Feb 2014, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Macro
    eh? Relented so soon? Didn't we agree that (TSLA) is a momentum stock? Momentum the other way is still momentum and just as fast and would pick up speed. XD

     

    Good luck.
    28 Feb 2014, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Lots of "cash on the sidelines"? I don't think so. Do you know, or are you just repeating CNBC talking heads?
    28 Feb 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6540) | Send Message
     
    Too dangerous, that particular stock. Too many positive new releases. Need to see a topping pattern first. Easier fish to fry. I made a few dollars in it.
    28 Feb 2014, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5780) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Lots of cash on sideslines is very believable from my vantage point. I can name -everyone- in my life I've talked to about investing... and they've got tons of cash with no idea what to do with it. Even in IRAs, some moved to cash equiv.
    28 Feb 2014, 07:21 PM