Land of Milk an...'s  Instablog

Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #8 154 comments
    Feb 28, 2014 1:37 PM

    I 've set up this blog ...as community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!!

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #8. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog.

    .

    Links

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great!:
    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (154)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    Lots of ideas were posted in the last chapter. Any thoughts on them?

     

    - Buying now vs waiting.
    - Buying Google and high valuation growth?
    - Impressions of Yellen...
    and more
    28 Feb 2014, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Lomh,

     

    "Buying now vs waiting"

     

    Taxable account gets funded on Wednesday and should clear by Thursday. Will put me back over $1000 in cash so I'll be buying. I'm thinking long term blue chip company. I've stated before I didn't see the interest in (KO), but the recent drop has interested me.

     

    Am frustrated I haven't been adding to (http://bit.ly/SJAAWf) though. It's been a nice ride back into the low $10's. Barely in the red now.
    28 Feb 2014, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    CW

     

    BSF has been frustrated with (KO) in the last year. YG spotted an issue (not KO but similar) posted in the last chapter that's undervalued. I'm staying away. I don't drink sodas or favored waters so I have no sense of the market. Unless they really diversify into other products, to me it's a declining product, unless overseas has room to grow? Good management though, so they should have sense to find new directions.

     

    So far beaten down stocks have been bouncing back nicely if it's not a fundamental flaw. Guess that's a bull market for you :).

     

    (LINE) and (TCAP), were down on recent earnings, but are showing recovery strength already. (Amazing how much more you stare at a stock's price moves when you own it.)

     

    (MU) is down, not bluechip, and likely to come up nicely, but I'd wait a little on that. It very well may have more down to go.
    28 Feb 2014, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    (MU) is off as I already have a similar stock. I'm in 4 different BDC's already so I'm a little heavy there. Not sure about (LINE). The other two I've been watching based on people posting here are (RIG) and (SDRL).

     

    Did pickup (MORL) after being brought to my attention in JW's blog. It's been up since the day I purchased. Already received a divi too.
    28 Feb 2014, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2896) | Send Message
     
    Yes (KO) is a real straggler. So I bought some (PEP) when it was down, couple weeks back. Of course, (PEP) is outperforming my (KO) position now.

     

    (MAT) is coming along. Still very cheap, pays over 4% dividend. (MO) is priced well & a great stock for solid dividends.

     

    (OAK), (MAIN) & (KKR) are all performing well for me & paying me excellent dividends. Also low PE ratios.

     

    There are plenty of good buys out there. If you want a low PE ratio stock, with a dividend don't give up. You can check David Fish's CCC list for ideas, or check the stocks listed on my profile if you don't like any of the above.

     

    Some of my stocks have gone up a lot. (LMT) (NOC) (MCK) and a few others have done very well since I bought them last year.

     

    Look over your portfolio. If you are a long term investor, make sure you buy something that gives you diversification.

     

    For emerging markets, I'm watching (EWW). Went ahead and bought a little (VALE) but might be too soon.

     

    (NDLS) has done well for me, so has (AMC).

     

    I'm trying to wait for a market pull back, hope we get another one soon….and then rally back up ; )
    28 Feb 2014, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Names like (LINE) be added for dist. income..

     

    Still plugging (MU) & (RIG) , they are not very expensive.. :)

     

    (TGT) has found some love , it may be overbought in the short term so it can be added on a pullback.. next stop 66- then 70 ?

     

    I mentioned (ALR) about a week ago here & in my blog @ 34.70 , bought it , its had a nice bounce to 36.80 and the chart looks constructive for a move to 40.. where i just may exit ... LT mid 40's . there is a full write up in my blog.. Fairly conservative name....

     

    I'm looking at the investment bankers - we have seen a lot of M & A activity lately and these guys will benefit , they have great earning power if that trend continues.. .. (LAZ) pays a 2.7% div.. it's 44 -- Right now i believe it can see the mid 50's , it not expensive here..

     

    (MS) same deal , chart looks excellent , a slow mover and not much of a div.. that's why i prefer (LAZ) , but i believe u wont get hurt in either.

     

    (GS) the 800 lb Gorilla , will also benefit from M & A,, it appears it has held support in the 161 area, IF the market looks for value and finds these names , GS is one that can get back to the 180 level... I have a full position , so i wont be adding..

     

    I 'm not looking to get into any go go growth names now --even as a trade..

     

    I bought (CTRP) in the mid 40's ,,its 55 now and I believe its headed to the low 60's , I wouldn't chase this recent breakout . it is THE online travel agency in China.. Their LT story is compelling as more Chinese move up to the middle class and start to travel.. -- one of my 2014 picks...

     

    I own (FB) at very low levels (25) and will sit on it - as Southgent used to say its "my lottery ticket" position .. realizing that lottery tickets can get torn up and tossed away :) for now , I'm happy with it..

     

    I don't have an issue with Yellen, then again I didn't have an issue with Bernanke and took a lot of heat from the bears on that one :)
    28 Feb 2014, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    "(TGT) has found some love , it may be overbought in the short term so it can be added on a pullback.. next stop 66- then 70 ?"

     

    I've been in your camp on Target. Two additional adds to my initial position. At 58.60 then again at 56.27. I agree with your '?' too. Don't know where it will go, but I do know it can be added below $60.
    28 Feb 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Cwinn,

     

    good move , u r in the black :)
    28 Feb 2014, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    That's right. Gone from being down a little over 10% to up 3.9% with my (TGT) position. Glad I didn't enter in the $70's. Been trying to get better at evaluating individual names.
    28 Feb 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -- FG,

     

    Thanks for all the investing ideas!!

     

    -
    Here's my take on Yellen, which I'd posted in the last chapter:
    ...Any thoughts on Yellen?

     

    She seemed happy, composed, well-spoken, thoughtful, had a grasp of the topics thrown out in questions with pre-thought opinions.

     

    She also seemed politically & Fed savvy at saying things in ways that leaves lots of doors open, and room to "feel confident" while supporting whatever view you wanted to hear.
    28 Feb 2014, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    -
    It's like night and day in the market. Up 50-80%, now down 50-80%.

     

    Any thoughts?
    28 Feb 2014, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    People taking profits on Friday? More civil war scares?
    28 Feb 2014, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    agree with User, traders are booking profits and don't want to be net "long" going into weekend with the Ukraine situation still looming...
    28 Feb 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Do you still think energy will be a good play for a while?
    28 Feb 2014, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    User

     

    the energy stocks i own and have on my radar have had nice runs , they are strong and look like they can go higher.. Maybe just a tad overbought here though..

     

    any particular name or names u are looking at ?
    28 Feb 2014, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    A cef I came across today at a very big discount. Went ex-div recently and I have a couple of weeks before I get paid again and can buy into something. CVX and XOM make up about 30% of it's portfolio. I wrote down the name and will research it after this work week.
    28 Feb 2014, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Ukraine Nominal GDP/US Nominal GDP = 1%
    28 Feb 2014, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    I forget that something as indirect as Ukraine, can get a short term market reaction.

     

    YG - can you explain? Ukr's over US's is 1%?

     

    Kevin Flynn, in his article said it'd be Friday's afternoon's movement based on traders:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Feb 2014, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Its always good to get different perspectives.. Kevin does have a bit of " naysayer " in him :)

     

    his commentary from last year ,the may /June timeframe , was negative,, just when the market took off to new highs ...
    28 Feb 2014, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    So for the weekend, will you be researching stocks... or have other fun plans?

     

    I'm cleaning up my kitchen from mice. Not fun, but at least the little critters are gone. Makes me want to invent a better mousetrap and put it on the market...!
    28 Feb 2014, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    Back to work for me. For a mouse/rat trap I know from personal experience to work:

     

    http://bit.ly/Ndl4kz

     

    they also don't tend to collect the bodies like cats will.
    28 Feb 2014, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2718) | Send Message
     
    When we did construction years ago we had a mouse/rat problem. An electric gadget called the RAT ZAPPER that runs on batteries works exceptionally well and you never have to touch the dead animals. Costs about $50-60 but well worth the cost.

     

    http://thd.co/NdmeN0
    28 Feb 2014, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    -
    Lol. DD - My sister's been using an electric trap & it's working exceptionally well. (HD) $20 mice-sized. Maybe I'll follow suit. Her cat is less useful. I'd been using livetraps and offering free, quick relocation services. But the mice cleverly, just shook the peanuts out... and ignored the trap. It's pretty funny though, the cat chases after critters, the dog chases after the cat... and all you want to do is be out of the way!

     

    U7- On getting a fox terrier, that's a bit much. Of course since the Queen owned one... Noticed this comment:
    "bred to chase foxes into their underground burrows; the dogs' short, strong, usually docked tails were used as handles by the hunter to pull them back out."

     

    If Ukraine heats up, maybe there'll finally be some drop to buy into. I hope people there are safe though. I was thinking the other day, that politics had disappeared again...
    28 Feb 2014, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4339) | Send Message
     
    Good ol' Victor snap traps... Gets 'em every time. Usually don't even have to re-bait.

     

    D-Con works, too. The mice/rats very rarely remain in the structure to meet their demise, unless there's available water for them to drink nearby.
    28 Feb 2014, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    That's helpful to know poisoned mice tend to leave. I've been avoiding d-con because I didn't want the smell. Snap traps don't always kill, so I won't use them.

     

    Mice seem gone. But the clean up is a bear! Who sells cascade & lysol? Time to buy stock in them.
    2 Mar 2014, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Target :)
    2 Mar 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG,

     

    LOL.

     

    Got cascade from Big Lots. Lysol, yep, from Target. (Was less or same as Walmart, & less than the mini-bottle at lower price at BLs.)

     

    I'm thinking of who makes them... But I see now why investors buy while things are down and haven't shown signs of recovery, at least in very solid stocks. That recovery shot up instantly, & who expected they'd beat estimates?
    2 Mar 2014, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4339) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I was also reluctant to use D-Con... I spent a few years working for (HD), and got a chance to talk with the garden reps from time to time... The D-Con guy (Reckitt Benckiser) assured me there wouldn't be dead mice in attics by using their product (unless water was available for them).

     

    It dehydrates them to the point they will leave the house in search of water (they typically stay in the house for warmth and to nest).

     

    I've never had a half-dead mouse in a snap trap. Glue traps I won't use, as that seems cruel.

     

    I've used a bucket and a 1x3 ramp before, though. :) Very "friendly" method of trapping.

     

    When we lived in Milwaukee, I used live traps made for raccoons to catch the sewer rats that are prolific there. They come around looking for trash / pet feces. Scary looking things. Glad we GTFO of that h*hole of a city.... :)
    2 Mar 2014, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Dead mice /rat zappers - LOL --

     

    i think i'll sit back relax, sip some wine and research some "preferreds" -- I may want to park some money for a while..

     

    In the meantime the rhetoric is already starting to ramp up on the Ukraine issue as I type this ,

     

    Now we'll see what our 'fearless leader" (?) has to say

     

    Just when you thought all was quiet on the DC front.....
    28 Feb 2014, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    "Now we'll see what our 'fearless leader" (?) has to say

     

    Just when you thought all was quiet on the DC front..... "

     

    Always worries me that this time might be different and he might Actually Do Something instead of just some rhetoric...

     

    OXCLO is one I own and like and is a mandatory redeemable in 9 years (though it doesn't trade that much).

     

    LMH,

     

    "the dogs' short, strong, usually docked tails were used as handles by the hunter to pull them back out."

     

    Now I don't feel bad about grabbing Abby by the tail when I was a kid...that was a rowdy and fun dog! Had teeth as big as my current animals that are five times her weight. She did wipe out my parent's mice problem over a couple of years.

     

    Talk to folks in a couple of weeks.
    28 Feb 2014, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    CW

     

    A non-description speech by the president, so no worries of "action" yet. Good point.

     

    Are you going to be away, vacation?

     

    I'm sure Abby would have let you know, if she had a problem :).
    28 Feb 2014, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    I am User! And you brought me back with that! :)

     

    Night for real (spend too much time on the internet as it is),
    28 Feb 2014, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    U7
    My apologies - I typed one thing while thinking another. User7!! Good night!
    28 Feb 2014, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4339) | Send Message
     
    Obama shook his fists, and said there will costs to pay! He is so scary - Putin must be a-shakin' in his boots.
    28 Feb 2014, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @John
    Was that sarcasm? -_-"
    This is bad for all of us if Obama doesn't know how to deal with the Soviet. Not only does he need to put his game face on and say what he said, he needs to begin mobilizing troops into Europe or at least have NATO sends in some troops nearby. Otherwise, I believe Ukraine would fall to the Soviet within a week.
    28 Feb 2014, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    JBT:

     

    Maybe, he can threaten him with some "community organizing."
    28 Feb 2014, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4339) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    Very overt sarcasm. This is what?, his third "ultimatum"/threat? Line in the sand, red line, now there will be costs. He's a paper tiger, as is the US, and the whole world can see it bright as day.
    28 Feb 2014, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    CW's comment that he's waiting for cash to clear, and Tack's idea to always be fully invested... I'm curious...

     

    ...I have a lot of cash on hand. Would you be putting much in right now? Or what would your plan be? It's more than I'd want to buy each of FG's ideas with.

     

    Just curious what approaches you'd take if you were first coming up to the market now?
    28 Feb 2014, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    J,
    not sure if that question was directed at me,,

     

    My thoughts would be to take is slow , no rush , wait for your entry points..
    28 Feb 2014, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    FG

     

    My question was open to everyone. Just a general curiosity of "mood" towards the market right now...
    28 Feb 2014, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    I try to send cash to my taxable account every other week. Since TD charges $9.99/trade I try to keep my minimum purchase to $1000. So that's the idea with buying this coming week. Right around new year I had been accumulating as I wasn't sure on where to go and I sold out of (MLR) for a nice gain so I had my cash up. This allowed me to be able to get several value buys of (TGT) and (PM).
    28 Feb 2014, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I will likely short (GM) on Monday to replace (TSLA) short. It is so difficult to short on valuation alone. The only valuation short I have is (GMCR) which did well for me today. Id rather short a weak company, which most of my other shorts are. Tiny short in (FB), but I plan to close that too.
    28 Feb 2014, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    (GM) is a long term short from its current prices...
    http://bit.ly/1hsI3mR

     

    1 Mar 2014, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    --- The latest margin debt figures were released for January, showing another uptick in debt and decrease in the net worth of investors. The "available cash" for investors to withdraw is now negative $159 billion, another new record low.
    As a percentage of the market cap of all U.S. equities, it amounts to -0.75%, tied with February 2000 for the most extreme figure since June 1987.

     

    Funny how all the bulls call this the most despised rally in history, and how there are "mountains of cash" on the sidelines". Right.
    I don't remember Feb 2000 as being an opportune time to put money to work.
    28 Feb 2014, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Two different pools of money. You're referencing margins, money borrowed by more aggressive investors.

     

    The other pool is retail investors, many of whom are skittish & poll as not in the market (I don't remember the charts). But it's a lot of slosh cash.
    28 Feb 2014, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    If it isn't despised ,it sure isn't embraced ,since mom & pop and Joe Q. Public are willing to accept less than 1% on these assets..

     

    Assets in money-market funds grew by $11.07 billion in the latest week, bolstered by relatively even inflows to prime and government funds, according to iMoneyNet

     

    In the week ended Wednesday, total assets in money-market funds grew to $2.694 trillion. That's trillion with a 'T"

     

    Funny how the comparisons to 1999- 2000 are still bandied about . Go back and look at the nasdaq 100 PE ratio in 2000

     

    Apart from a handful of overhyped stocks there is no mania ...
    28 Feb 2014, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    While we are on the topic of over-hyped stocks. Which stocks do you think are the most over-hyped right now? XD
    28 Feb 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Comparsion to 2000---- FG its not an opinion, it's a factual statistic on margin balances.

     

    Not every fact can simply be dismissed as "fear mongering by naysayers".

     

    It's a statistical fact that speaks to the total exposure in the market. Source is sentiment trader.com.

     

    How much of that money market cash breathlessly about to pour into the market, is actually held by SPX corporations, offsetting the huge rise in corporate bond issuance?
    28 Feb 2014, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,

     

    The usual names mentioned constantly by the financial media .. (TSLA), (LNKD), (NFLX) (TWTR), (FB) ,
    28 Feb 2014, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    Thanks F&G
    28 Feb 2014, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    a) Margin rises in tandem with the indices, always.

     

    b) Even if the cash was all corporate cash, you think that's meaningless, as regards equities? Corporations buy back shares as soon as they become more attractive, so they serve as a backstop to market drops, just like anyone else with cash. Liquidity is liquidity.
    28 Feb 2014, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    M.
    Thank you for the margin fact but I'd rather use the other metrics available that show no correlation to 1999-2000 whatsoever

     

    First, the nasdaq PE ratio ,back then, which of course is casually dismissed, cause it doesn't fit your theory.

     

    i wont debate 2000 again, its not worth my time as i have written a novel here on SA debunking that theory..

     

    Suffice to say , u continue to attempt to find a straw or two to build a bear case..

     

    Sorry i for one can't buy into a flawed strategy.

     

    Building a "bear" case hasnt worked for years now ..
    Thank you , but I'll stay on the path that got me here

     

    Enjoy your trip..
    28 Feb 2014, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    Psychology of trading:
    http://bit.ly/1hrG8Pj

     

    I happened on the site - from a very different angle.
    28 Feb 2014, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro, & everyone

     

    The psychology of day trading website - has nothing to do with technicals.

     

    It's a psychologist writing about the mind set, and how to be more focused. Make less mistakes and get less thrown off by the market's movements.
    1 Mar 2014, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    We haven't broken down yet -- and we may not -- but this volatility at the highs, has to be a concern to the technicians out there.
    28 Feb 2014, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Here, look at this chart and advise the unusual volatility or price behavior you can find now versus the entire five-year period shown:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/l93...
    28 Feb 2014, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2896) | Send Message
     
    Big job number coming out next Friday, non farm payroll #

     

    http://cnb.cx/NEt5yM

     

    anticipation that it will be another dud is already affecting the market.

     

    Consumer staples will do well if the number is bad; momentum stocks, some retail etc. may get clobbered. No wonder my (KMB) Kimberly Clark stock was up today.

     

    Looks like we will get some opportunities when the market pulls back from jitters next week. If the number is bad, take advantage of that to buy your favorites when they dip.
    28 Feb 2014, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF

     

    That's interesting that consumer staples, and your (KMB) did well today.
    1 Mar 2014, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2896) | Send Message
     
    Really we should get involved in Ukraine? How about letting our euro friends take the lead on this one - What about NATO?

     

    Restraint needed - no reason to get involved at all. Thank God the war hawks are not in control.

     

    Worst invasion ever - Iraq. 2nd worst - Afghanistan. We could have just bombed them back into the stone age. Instead, we have well over 200,000 vets with missing limbs, brain injuries & no benefits. And the waste of money….that's the real reason the deficit is so huge. Then the financial crisis made it even bigger.

     

    Unless you plan to be on the front line & pay for this next unnecessary war, take a pass.

     

    I say we send our congress people over there, the ones that want to go to war. And their children. Before anyone else.
    28 Feb 2014, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    volatility at the highs --

     

    about as much concern as the small caps not participating in the rally -- which was cried from the balconies by the bears last week as being the death knell for the rally .

     

    now that the (RUT) and the (MID) have broken to a new high , that doesn't seem to be of much concern now..

     

    along with the "double top" and head & shoulders patterns that were forming " remember those alarms ....

     

    - they too were dispelled this week.

     

    Sometimes these instances take care of themselves.. as we have just witnessed

     

    Only those with a negative slant embrace them as gospel,,

     

    28 Feb 2014, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG & anyone with info,

     

    It's obvious the market has broken upward and any pullback will be met with a climb back up.

     

    There is a shift from last year. Today SP & Dow led. Smallcap & Nadq rose less %, again. What rotation is this... and what does it imply?

     

    I know smallcap leads upward, and falls back in less certain times, but there are more factors to consider. Such as that this market has an odd mix of investors (more sophisticated than usual). And with tapering (a new thing), it makes some investors nervous. Or maybe as retail finally joins in, they're aiming for the DGIs, especially with ZIRP?

     

    So to be clear, I'm calling this a solid bull. I'm curious what rotation from smallcaps, indicates. Also just because smallcaps fall back in uncertainty, doesn't mean it's the only time they fall back...!
    28 Feb 2014, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    I think techs will recede and commodities will lead the next cycle up.

     

    .02

     

    Steel, Coal, Oil good places to look.
    1 Mar 2014, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    My thoughts :

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Mar 2014, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - YG

     

    Why commodities? They've been performing poorly for a couple years? What's the trigger for them to come back to life?

     

    FG,

     

    Good read and gives lots of data. On small/mid caps, while they made new highs, they did it with a definite change to less % on up dates than SP. And yesterday less than DOW. What's that rotation about?
    1 Mar 2014, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG, typo

     

    I mean change to less % on up days than SP.
    1 Mar 2014, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    the only takeaway i have on the Small & midcap indexes is that they have made new highs and have rejoined the upside..

     

    That was a concern from many technicians that wanted to see them come back as leadership ..

     

    and they have done just that ... :)
    1 Mar 2014, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Supply and demand :)

     

    Think China...

     

    I think one of the easiest trades today, is simply selling at the money leap puts on (FXI).
    1 Mar 2014, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - YG

     

    The world needs more stuff :) - so commodities come back to life...

     

    To gain from (FXI) China large caps going down? Naked or covered? Why be sure China's going down?
    1 Mar 2014, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2718) | Send Message
     
    "It's obvious the market has broken upward and any pullback will be met with a climb back up."

     

    LMH - It's not obvious to me. And in some respects it reminds me of Oct 2007 - the last new highs before the market turned lower.

     

    Technically, there's some divergence - as there was in Oct 2007. The weekly rsi for the S&P 500 (or nasdaq or russell) didn't make a new high and the weekly macd hasn't had a positive crossover yet. Before you can conclude it's up, up and away you need to see bullish follow through.

     

    The one big positive difference I do see is there is no obvious credit market stress (as measured by the St. Louis Fed stress index STLFSI) - unlike 2007. But strictly technically speaking, Friday's new high close needs confirmation.
    1 Mar 2014, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    I was thinking very short term, the next week if it's down, it will then move up again. ...and for a little while since that excitement is back again. (Can I be more vague :)? )

     

    Your data points are attention getting... I've taken a little off the top last week. I've been trying to figure if I want to do more in the next pop.

     

    2008-9 crash was based on the bottom falling out of the economics in general, with the liquidity issues, bad lending... While there may be weakness now in the charts or from 2013's big moves up, I'd expect at most a temporary top, rather than a big crash. Your thoughts?
    1 Mar 2014, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2718) | Send Message
     
    I try not to look at week to week. I don't see a 2008 crash situation, but I'm also having difficulty short term seeing much positive that hasn't already been baked into the current price.

     

    If I was to do a bit of buying it would probably be in something like BRKB. Good numbers were reported Friday and the stock has seriously lagged over the past six months..

     

    Until there's credit market stress or a confirmation that the recent slow economic data is only weather related my bias leans more toward choppy sideways trading rather than sustained weakness or strength. But I have been surprised at how strong the market has been and could very well be wrong. Liquidity is still buoying the market and seasonality is positive for the next couple months.
    1 Mar 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    I do agree with you as there are some divergences present and have been there for a while,, We did however eliminate a couple of them last week..

     

    I believe there may be enough momentum here to take the S & P to 1900, but before its all said & done I do believe we MAY retest the 1737 low....

     

    I stay with the plan that got me here , harvest profits on positions that are stretched, sell calls on certain positions and keep any buying to selective names that may be beaten down or have a "story" attached..

     

    Above all stay liquid enough to take advantage of any pullback on stocks u like as the Secular bull will continue after any market correction..
    1 Mar 2014, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    You have it backwards. One sells, not buys, puts as a bullish position.
    1 Mar 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    DD & LMH:

     

    Look at this chart: http://tinyurl.com/l93...

     

    Now, try to find what's suddenly different in the behavior of the SPX.

     

    Unless one can find fundamental reasons for weakness, there's nothing in the charts to suggest a suddenly overextended market, based either on the slope of the chart or trading volumes.
    1 Mar 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    One chart is useless in isolation. Divergences are located through comparisons.

     

    See my pilot analogy below.
    1 Mar 2014, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2718) | Send Message
     
    F&g - Sounds like a plan; the basic idea is to lighten up on strength, take advantage of special situations and be ready to pounce if the time comes.

     

    1900 is just 2.2% away - it seems very possible over the next month or so - it's a nice round number - but I have to see much more short term upside to be overweight - which I do not. In particular I'm very much looking forward to the economic stats once weather normalizes and the next earnings reports in April. The top chart in the following link is particularly bothersome to me. How much higher should the p/e go?

     

    http://blog.yardeni.com
    1 Mar 2014, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    It's more that it's a long extended slant up at a certain strong angle, and that needs to be supported by economic growth. So it can correct at any time if those don't line up well. Or trade in range till they catch up.

     

    True it's not gone parabolic, which would indicate overextended in a big way.

     

    I'm not talking about (and I think DD isn't either) a big crash.

     

    Volume is thinner and moving downward since 2009. I have no idea how to interpret that.

     

    That's what I see. Great point to look at the chart that way...
    1 Mar 2014, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Can you post charts showing divergences through comparison?

     

    Trader, pilot - seems like they use some of the same personality traits.
    1 Mar 2014, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2718) | Send Message
     
    Tack - I know what the S&P chart looks like. To me, the trajectory is too steep relative to earnings growth. And the fundamental reasons are slower economic stats and downward earnings revisions.

     

    If earnings are going to accelerate in the second half of the year more than the current analysts prognostication of S&P earnings @ $122, then I'm being too cautious. But I think the market is getting ahead of itself and I prefer to be underweight at this point. I'm still long, but with my lowest exposure in almost two years - all of it liquidated on strength within the past couple months.

     

    We had this discussion in 2011. While I'm not nearly as bearish as I was in the spring of 2011 when I just about liquidated everything I owned, it turned out I was right. When I don't feel comfortable I lighten. Please not let's have this discussion again. You will NEVER convince me that being fully invested AT ALL TIMES is the correct course. Don't bother to try again.

     

    I know myself. And I have the tendency to make stupid decisions when I'm heavily invested and uncertain. If I'm wrong I'll still make money - just less than I could/should have.
    1 Mar 2014, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    You are right on DD.
    1 Mar 2014, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Thanks for your thoughts! (and above too). Lots of points that make a lot of sense to me.

     

    The chart is of Net Earnings Revisions Indexes (NERIs). I don't see P/Es? I'm assuming it that as analysts reduce their estimates, and prices remain the same, P/Es are up "relatively speaking."
    1 Mar 2014, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    I did some googling after posting that, and learned a bit. Best I not to options till I learn a little more :). I figured out that YG meant long on China, over time.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    That's right. In both professions the smart ones try not to follow the mindless herd over a cliff.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Of course I have a negative slant. I'm short!

     

    If 50 people agreed with me on this or any other blog, then I'd be worried!
    28 Feb 2014, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    worrying about 50 other people here on SA agreeing with you is the least of your worries - :)
    28 Feb 2014, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    MW is now talking about shorting (TSLA) & others
    http://on.mktw.net/1d6...
    1 Mar 2014, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    I'm short (CAT) at ~97, 1.2% of the portfolio haha
    1 Mar 2014, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2896) | Send Message
     
    Here's some of what Buffett had to say in his annual letter to shareholders

     

    http://reut.rs/1fyjtvA

     

    "Charlie and I have always considered a 'bet' on ever-rising U.S. prosperity to be very close to a sure thing," he added, referring to his 90-year-old vice chairman Charlie Munger. "Though we invest abroad as well, the mother lode of opportunity resides in America."

     

    Buffett has held his investments over the years & managed to get extraordinary results. His faith in America's ability to keep prospering reinforces mine.

     

    Some of my stock picks are the type of companies expected to do well for decades to come. Lately, every single stock I've sold has gone on to do better. This is why I hate to sell. If you research the company solidly, before you buy it, then it should end up being a keeper.

     

    The buy & hold, collect the dividends is working for me.

     

    Of course you short guys make money too. I'm not smart enough to figure out which companies to short….better to figure out the ones that are successful for me.

     

    (LMT) Lockheed Martin & (NOC) Northrop Grumman are excellent companies. It's enjoyable watching them succeed, & rewarding.
    1 Mar 2014, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Shorting is much more about timing than quality.
    1 Mar 2014, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2896) | Send Message
     
    Lomah, you asked about consumer staples, like (KMB) doing well if the market pulls back. They are considered "defensive" stocks because even in bad times, people need these products, like diapers, soap, etc. Drugstores & drug companies fall into this category too.

     

    I've got a mix of sectors, to diversify my portfolio. Consumer staples, consumer discretionary (like Macys), energy, industrial, finance, and tech companies. Probably over waited with consumer staples. This way, you always have some stocks going up even when the market tanks.

     

    Looking to buy more stocks next week, when the market gets jittery over the anticipated bad jobs report. (FB), (GOOG), (SCTY), (WDAY) will hopefully all tank. They already started tanking yesterday, while defensive stocks were going up.
    1 Mar 2014, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    There was a comment or two in an earlier chapter here ,and I've seen a lot of chants from the sidelines that "China" is a big problem for the global markets.

     

    here is an article from a gentleman here on SA that has had the story "right" on the economy and the equity markets for a very long time..

     

    He dispels the naysayer arguments and takes a look at this situation in the proper perspective contrary to the crowd that likes to play "chicken little" with every piece of data.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I maintain that it's wise to follow those that have been correct..
    1 Mar 2014, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I'm I pilot.

     

    Some of the comments remind me of some pilots, when faced with a snowstorm, launch anyway, and are surprised when the sky is anything but clear and blue.

     

    Same symptom, a lack of respect for risk when the weather is changing.
    1 Mar 2014, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    Your comments, as well, suggest a lack of respect for risk. You have said you are net short. That means, absent good luck, the market either goes down, or your "plane" crashes.

     

    One gets the impression from a compendium of your commentary that you think everyone else is saying -- or, even more so, doing -- "buy, buy, buy." But, the behavior of the overall market, e.g., volumes, P/E's, slopes, etc. doesn't support your assessment, and, besides, the most prevalent alternative views suggest diversified, balanced, carefully-managed portfolios, not frantic buying of Tesla, Twitter and a few other go-go spec names, which you seem to mistake for the overall market.

     

    Well-managed portfolios will perform well in up, sideways, even down, markets. Your net short is only likely to win one way. Who's really engaged in the risky behavior?
    1 Mar 2014, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Well, I am not short the SPX, I am short weak stocks. The market going down at all would only be the kicker for downtrends in the stocks I am short
    1 Mar 2014, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    One never seems to hear about the long side of your portfolio, so if being "net short" means you're only shorting Amazon, Twitter, Facebook, Tesla, etc., then they must comprise more than 50% of your composite holdings for you to be net short. That sure sounds like a pretty risky bet, to me. There's a huge amount riding on a few names.

     

    And, no matter how many names may be on the short side, what are some of the long-side holdings that keep "net short" from being "all short?"
    1 Mar 2014, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Long common sense and a study of history.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Translation:

     

    Not long anything, so your "net short" position means you're all short, to the extent you're in anything.

     

    If that's in error, provide a few examples of some of your longs and why.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Oh, forgot. Shorting euphoria. Always.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I judge from your replies you no longer wish to contribute anything of value to this debate.

     

    Especially, you seem wishing to avoid being labelled a 100% short, which it appears you must be, if you aren't willing to divulge any long positions. You sure haven't been reticent to regale all of us with your shorts, moment by moment.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    We are 2 months into the year. Indexes are mixed. Exactly how anyway am I wrong?
    1 Mar 2014, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    M,
    Credibility is earned
    1 Mar 2014, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    That is the funniest thing I've ever heard. I have no need to earn any credibility.

     

    I only post as a log of my own thoughts, and to judge the quality of responses.

     

    So far they are completely backward looking, essentially stating, since the bulls have been right and any bears wrong for so long, this condition will exist in pertutity.

     

    It is completely normal at the top of a cycle for anyone questioning never ending happy times as naysayers......

     

    This verifies the usual condition of most being long and wrong at the top of a cycle, because most folks are never contrarian. Can't stand to look wrong.

     

    I'll continue to trade the way it has worked for me, which is contrarian.
    1 Mar 2014, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    The problem is that you imagine broad sentiment conditions that don't exist, in order to support your narrow contrarian view, and you are ignoring important economic and liquidity factors along the way. Cycles don't end simply because someone wishes it were so.

     

    Just a few points:

     

    Valuations in this market are not significantly overextended, especially at today's interest rates.

     

    There is absolutely no caution-to-the winds buying, as you claim. There is and has been massive skepticism ever since 2008. Huge swathes of investors never returned to the market, and it's reflected in low volumes.

     

    There is no hopping-on-board volume jumps in trading, of late, regardless of Tesla-mania, and indices aren't spiking, either.

     

    There is no rapidly-growing private credit, which might indicate an approaching liquidity problem. In fact, there's an ocean of liquidity in non-stock holdings.

     

    Corporate performances remain on a steady positive track.

     

    You may be as contrarian as you please --and, I've made a career out of it by buying unloved depressed issues -- but one cannot alter facts. Cycles don't just suddenly reverse for no reason.

     

    Yes, we could have a correction, but it's entirely unpredictable and could just as well occur because of Ukraine hysteria, rather than market data. It's hard to forecast those downturns and much more of a gamble than routine portfolio management. Absent such events, betting on a major downturn now is pure speculation.

     

    There's nothing wrong with being short Tesla, Facebook, Amazon, or a few more, based on their own fundamentals. But, to extrapolate that to the overall market is entirely a different matter.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    your comment
    "It is completely normal at the top of a cycle for anyone questioning never ending happy times as naysayers......"

     

    I have been questioning the naysayers since 2011

     

    when they all cried it was the top of the cycle then -- then again in 2012 and again in 2013, so which top of the cycle is it ..
    If one followed that thought process they were left behind not to mention the wizards that tried to call & short every perceived top .. just like we are hearing from u now...

     

    until then it's more of the same -- you'll find another data point to highlight that will once again shown to be inaccurate.......
    This is how it works with the naysayers ---
    I have seen it in every cycle ----

     

    U will surely tell us all how right u are when the market finally corrects.. LOL yes that how it is with naysayers.. 
    in the meantime ........S & P 1859
    The "double top" and "head & shoulders" patterns that u conjured up ----- it's more of the same from the crowd that wishes to convince themselves that their ill fated strategy is working

     

    Sorry not today --- case closed ...
    1 Mar 2014, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Not working? You assume an awful lot. I am doing just fine sir, both last year and this one.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    How can you possibly be doing "just fine" this year, when we can go back and chart the stocks you suggested shorting and many of your own trades that you posted. If by doing "just fine" you mean narrowly avoiding losing your a**, then, maybe we could all agree.

     

    I know, now, you'll tell us you had some "double-secret" (like Animal House) trades about which you didn't inform any of us.

     

    Why not just say, "I've been wrong, so far, but still think my heavy short bias will pay off in spades this year?" At least, we could all believe that.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    You've been shorting particular stocks & sectors that have gotten overbought at times, not the S&P in general.

     

    You are now calling for a big SP drop. When did you start that call? Were you saying that last year? (while doing fine - so you must not have been betting against the SP unless it was for very short day or two periods.)

     

    YG has asked if you beat the SP last year. That's still a good question. I hear a lot that traders don't do well. So I'd be interested to know if your trading, did better for you than a straight long SP would have.
    1 Mar 2014, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I'm calling for a big SPX drop? Hmmm didn't see that. Try carefully reading what I write. We are nearing a topping phase. That is quite different than betting on a imminent drop. I haven't had any SPX shorts.

     

    May not happen until after or closer to the actual end of QE. We right now have a FED, who refuses to commit to continuing the taper -- so there is hope for an extended pause from the market. Maybe we churn for awhile, assuming china holds together.

     

    Those who want to comment that QE has nothing to do with anything, please put a sock in it. You are wrong, you were wrong in 2011 as we plunged after QE was suspended, and you are wrong today. Give it up.

     

    We will see when this program ends. Likely sooner, maybe in the next few months. If they cave at this months meeting, and say they will not taper any more -- that changes my timing as well.

     

    I'll tell you this for certain -- if the Fed caves and drives the market much higher ahead of the economy, whenever a correction happens in the future, it will be much worse than today.

     

    I'm positioned, likely too early, for the winding down of QE. But admittedly it's a tough trade when they continually waffle about their intentions.

     

    Heck, I might not be too early. Look how the market is struggling during it's best season. Look at treasuries, which I have a bullish position.

     

    Why does whether I beat the SPX last year relevant? Analyse the situation, not the writer. Who cares? Losers do that. They say " this guy got killed on his last trade -- so he is forever wrong". That's extremely dumb. Have a open mind to analyzing what people say, weigh it, make your own decision.

     

    I've done thousands of trades. Likely less than 40% were profitable. But it's how much you make when you are right. I tend to be a bit early on Macro calls. But I don't think I'm wrong on this one from the evidence I see. I'll trade around a core position, until we confirm a breakdown. Then I'll sell the crap out of this market.
    1 Mar 2014, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    My trading over the long haul has blown away the SPX. But bear in mind, it's not comparable as I've traded a lot of derivatives with leverage.

     

    On the stock side, that's developed over the last several years, and I am well ahead of the SPX. But certainly not without bumps, or even losing years.

     

    You correct 95% of traders lose money over the long run.
    1 Mar 2014, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @LoMaH
    I don't think Macro was the one who called for a big S&P drop. Hee..hee...the one that called for a S&P crash was me >_<"
    Well... my thought was, since George Soros doubled his bet, that means there should be something wrong.
    http://bit.ly/1oHxsro

     

    That lasted a day >_< since there was no hundred points drop, I got out... -_-
    1 Mar 2014, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "Those who want to comment that QE has nothing to do with anything, please put a sock in it. You are wrong, you were wrong in 2011 as we plunged after QE was suspended, and you are wrong today. Give it up."

     

    Well, at least you are amazingly consistent in your misinterpretation of events.

     

    While the QE phobes have whined and moaned the whole way, asserting that the market and economy have been levitated by QE, the fact,s of course, just don't want to comply. It's been clear for a long time now that QE has had almost no impact on the economy (heck, even you, yourself, were asking loudly why it's continued; suddenly forgeotten, of course). That's evidenced by QE flowing directly into increasing excess reserves, and Bernanke, himself, saying QE wasn't doing much.

     

    So, you're going to have to explain how the reduction, or even termination, of a program that astute observers (even yourself) say is doing nothing is suddenly going to tank the economy and markets. The answer, of course, is that it's not, and you have wholly contradicted yourself, again.

     

    And, you're the same guy who has been touting the positive behavior of Treasuries, but, again, misunderstand what's been going on. Treasuries, and all yield issues, came under near panic selling last May, when the Fed announced tapering, as much of the market has never fully grasped the operation of QE. So, after spending the second half of 2013 languishing in fear of rising rates, because of less QE, the market, as it usually does, awoke to the reality that there was no inflationary pressure or rising rates, so all yield issues, Treasuries included, started rallying back from oversold conditions.

     

    And, notice how, now, after tapering had its fifteen minutes of fame, that repeated confirmations that tapering is proceeding have produced nary a blink by the market. In fact, yield issues keep rallying. The bottom line is that QE and tapering are already yesterday's news.
    2 Mar 2014, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    One more thing, T;

     

    Because you obviously don't understand the effects of QE on risk assets, and continually keep confusing the Economy with the performance of risk assets -- they are totally 2 different things -- you and anyone else in this distressed high yield stuff will get absolutely smoked when the junk bond market turns.

     

    Which is coming, one of these days.
    2 Mar 2014, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Your comment

     

    "I'll trade around a core position, until we confirm a breakdown. Then I'll sell the crap out of this market."

     

    I've heard that EXACT line from many people lately, most have missed the market runup, (not saying u are one of them ) but your recent rhetoric on China, Swiss franc, divergences , et al would lead others to believe that to be the case ..

     

    That type of commentary goes far beyond shorting a few high flyers . In reality a "bear' that loathes this market.
    Your additional commentary about the fed is also the EXACT rhetoric that many here on SA have stated time & time again...

     

    They are all "frustrated bears" and have by their own admission have missed the rally. You may not be in that camp , but the rhetoric is the same..

     

    You see IF one has been on the long side of the equity market , they look at a corrective Phase and say "SO WHAT" . I suggest that those that haven't are all saying I'll SHORT the HELL out of this market"

     

    And that is the difference between those that have had it right and everyone else.. Period...
    I have no disdain or emotion about a corrective phase at all .. Get the point ?

     

    Those same folks that have debated anyone who is bullish here on SA , and told them how wrong they are on the market, will indeed sell the hell out of this market when the time comes , & they will get back to even with the losses they sustained are added in by trying to call THE top..

     

    Now if the happy bears happen to eke out a gain after those losses, It will be miniscule compared to those that have stayed the course and positioned themselves without complaining about the fed and other conjured up nonsense, I.e Eurozone, Japan, China, Cyprus, Syria, debt ceiling , sequestration, the list goes on & on...

     

    By your own admission u can't call the top here, so now u want us to believe u and the rest of the bears will precisely call the bottom of a corrective phase to close out your "short" positions ..
    You consistently imply that the folks that have invested in equities are the people that are crazy, we're filled with crazy ideas about the world around us, we can't see the impending doom ahead. We cant see the 'issues" . even as some of your "issues" evaporate before your own eyes.
    The FACTS show that the frustrated bear folks are the ones that have had it wrong with their ill fated strategy that in reality is quite sad.

     

    & NO corrective phase will change that simple fact.. and that is really at the heart of the frustration that the naysayers are experiencing now.

     

    No matter how much they will come back to the bulls and say -- I told u so..
    The bottom line is you or anyone in the frustrated bear camp isn't telling the bulls anything that is "news" ..
    Here's a hint---- many bulls already know what to do when markets correct.. We've seen it before
    ... So let me repeat this again ....
    "You see IF one has been on the long side of the equity market , they look at a corrective Phase and say "SO WHAT" . I suggest that those that haven't are all saying I'll SHORT the HELL out of this market"
    get the point ?? 
    2 Mar 2014, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    The proof that QE relates equally to the economy and "risk assets" is that market P/E's are not out of line. It's been the persistent myth that QE has elevated market, but the economy didn't cause it or follow, but the data disprove that.

     

    Most bears must think that everybody who made the right choices will lose all their money. Must make them feel better. But, good portfolio management mitigates downside effects, while not missing out on huge upsides. If the yield market shows signs of distress, one can exist positions in nanoseconds, if that's the right move. The only thing those who have missed the gains know is that they didn't make money. Their future performance remains as unpredictable as everybody else's.
    2 Mar 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Thanks. If I want to judge ideas for myself (to maybe use), I need to know how they've turned out :).

     

    The psych of day-trading site I linked to, quotes a study that in a bull 15% of traders can do well in a year, and only 4% can do well year to year. So I was wondering the motivation - i.e. if there'd been enough gains to motivate.

     

    So you're calling for a "topping phase", which could take a while, rather than an imminent drop. Are you calling for an overall longer term bull market, with that topping phase within it? Or are you calling that a top that then turns into a bear market.
    2 Mar 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    You are assuming I've been bearish and only shorting for years, and you'ed be wrong. I trade both ways. I see a serious fear refresh, I'll be buying something.
    2 Mar 2014, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I'm not assuming anything like that. I'm asking what you mean by what you've been saying. It's not clear to me by "topping phase" what you mean that's the top of. A correction, crash, or simple reversal into bear.
    2 Mar 2014, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I look at it differently , many are still on the ground waiting for takeoff.. they still conjure up a storm that isnt here.. Not only have they stayed grounded, but decided in their never ending short sighted approach to spend money on maintenance while sitting there..

     

    the sad part is they more than likely will never catch up...

     

    The experienced pilots that have gotten it right have been thru every storm imaginable and are still navigating the skies well in all types of weather.

     

    They understand all of the risks but because they realize that storms pass , so with the proper flight plan they always get to their destination safely

     

    They realize that "facts" not fiction combined with their flying experience trumps all..
    1 Mar 2014, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    The margin debt numbers disagree. The exuberance by those piling into Tesla and other highly valued stocks. Greed is in full force.

     

    Tesla is not the whole market, but it is sure the pulse of the market right now ---
    1 Mar 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    I am new to this game but have been reading a bunch... some thoughts pop to mind while reading this discussion...

     

    It's a market of stocks... but seriously, what's up with tesla???

     

    As long as I stay employed and the family stays healthy, I'll be averaging in... regardless of what the "market" does...

     

    I've been contrarian (read: rebel) all my life. Always went the opposite way. This has taught me that a) it's usually not the easy way, b) there's a middle ground to be had that most likely is the best path. Never have been one for sheep herding!

     

    I do enjoy the banter back and forth... always something new to consider...
    1 Mar 2014, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I'd agree that there's a pocket of greed that's popped up. But looking more broadly... there's also a huge slew of folks who stopped investing and sitting skittish in the restaurant next to the airport taking about anything but the market. That greed is coming from a very narrow band of investors, and only slowly growing.

     

    Case in point, Suzy Orman on PBS is talking about how scared folks are and how the market is good to be in, and time to get over 2008. With all her mail, she should have a pulse on at least a part of the public. And at PBS it's likely to be an educated if not better off public.
    1 Mar 2014, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Zalach

     

    Contrarian, rebel eh :). Sounds good (my dad is a contrarian).

     

    I tend to be oblivious to where everyone's going. Then look up and wonder why the herd's thundering by. Or straight into me.

     

    Telsa -- No idea, but I've seen SA posters say "it's a great company, I'm betting on it's future"... as though sticker price is in a foreign currency they haven't converted.
    1 Mar 2014, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Sheep herding....exactly...it's interesting after a lengthy run one will be inundated with bullish stories, new paradigms and exhortations that "you Must be fully invested, Now, you are missing Out!". Or " PE ratios are passe" or " we have users".

     

    You see, if professionals can unload on the public --- prevent you from selling while they do --- that's sheep herding.
    1 Mar 2014, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    M

     

    Where did anyone say to be "fully invested" -- 'all in" ?

     

    as far as missing out , that was done in '10,'11,'12,'13,

     

    when the naysayers said we wont recover, couldnt revover, and the end is near...

     

    the others (the bulls) that were chastised and ridiculed for being in the market back then have harvested their profits..

     

    remember those chants -- "how could u buy stocks in 'THIS' environment.... "

     

    well some of us did just that , the fools that we are,,
    1 Mar 2014, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG,

     

    Next time, ring me -- I wasn't paying attention, but I would have gone in and how nice it would have been :)
    1 Mar 2014, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    : )
    1 Mar 2014, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @LoMaH
    I am not so sure... the pain would be kinda great... and you could actually feel real physical pain and would definitely shed hot tears. I don't think at that point a call would be enough. XD

     

    @F&G
    Please do you best to convince us to buy >_<" next time when we have a crash... please... XD
    1 Mar 2014, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Z,

     

    it truly is a market of stocks,,
    (TSLA) ----- a runaway freight train that speculators and traders are falling over themselves to ride..

     

    Investors on the other hand are doing what u just said, formulate a plan and sticking to it..
    1 Mar 2014, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    @Macrotrader - Yeah, I feel sometimes like I'm over-informationed... makes me waffle between the sky is falling and where did all these unicorns and rainbows come from... when it gets like that, I check out from the information highway... The reality is much more micro...; health? yep, employed? yep, rainyday fund? yep... okay... now what to do...

     

    @Fear&Greed - I have never shorted a stock, and always said I never would, but TSLA is seriously making me reconsider that!
    (Don't get me wrong, I love the fact that they are doing as well as they are. And their cars are really quite awesome. I just can't stomach spending that much on something that goes from point A to point B.)
    1 Mar 2014, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Zalach

     

    Ask yourself what really have changed in the past 7 years that warrant a stock market that is higher than the bubble 7 years ago?

     

    A note about (TSLA)
    (TSLA) cars are banned or very limited in 48 states, and the people from tsla have just started working on a "Giga factory" to build batteries for their cars. btw, their cars are pure electric.

     

    One more thing! (TSLA) stock price is twice that of Toyota Motor (TM). X_X

     

    Nevertheless... it could go up. We just don't know how much money these treehuggers have these days. XD
    1 Mar 2014, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Z,

     

    Plenty of money can be made on the downside .

     

    When shorting , it comes down to making that decision when the stock is clearly in a down trend .. No matter what the stock is,,,

     

    at present that is not the case with (TSLA) , it currently doesn't matter what we think of the valuation,fundamentals etc.

     

    anyone that believes they can pick the top on that type of momentum stock or for that matter any stock is in for a rude awakening..

     

    no matter what they believe about valuation..

     

    just ask the wizards that have tried to short amazon because they thought they were the brightest bulb,,all the while repeatedly saying that Amazon is overvalued.... they have all been carried out in boxes.

     

    “valuation” is a tough concept to get your arms around, and it can mean very different things to very different people.

     

    And when you hear the word valuation, understand that that word’s meaning can vary widely depending on who is using it, and how it is being used.

     

    thus the current price of (TSLA) ...

     

    for a trader this was a great 'long" trade , as the stock 'broke out" , that's trading 101 ,

     

    it wasn't a "short bet at anytime during this breakout no matter what a trader may think of its valuation,, going short during this time is more of an emotional "bet" ..that they have picked THE top...
    1 Mar 2014, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    I agree with you, but (TSLA), in my opinion has gone parabolic and lost momentum after fluctuating for 4 days last week and finally succumbed to the down side. Yes, this is just me picking the top, but I believe it's worth the risk. I believe a momentum stock such as (TSLA) should have lots and lots of very tight stop-losses, trip those and that stock would be seriously tripping. XD
    1 Mar 2014, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Just be very careful. Stupid can get more stupid. The latter part of 1999 things got really, really stupid. It's very tough to tell if we are there. Hence I am be very very careful with these momentum shorts. If (Tsla) can trade at 250 it can also trade at 500 before going to 100. It's a concept. Same with FB to a certain extent.

     

    My focus is more on china, financials and small shorts in a couple of momentum names, which may change day to day. Shorting china related looks more promising long term, and US small caps when the tide turns. They are really expensive. (IWM)

     

    I will likely short GM as its safer, and the stock is weakening. I'll jump on Tsla -- but would like a catalyst -- same with FB. Valuation may not be enough.
    2 Mar 2014, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    @NewbieTrader - Hmmm so much has changed and yet not much has changed... The big picture is so hard to sift through to discern what's relevant and what isn't... From what I can see, those in my circle of friends/acquaintances who were out of work are all working. Maybe not as much as before, but enough to make ends meet. In general, things on our corner of main street aren't too bad.

     

    I looked into Tesla quite a bit. From an investment point of view, I am full on speculation stocks and from a car point of view I drive a reasonably efficient Prius. Guess that qualifies me as one of those tree-huggers. /shrug - I do try and keep the cloud of smugness at bay!

     

    Yeah - that valuation leaves me speechless.
    2 Mar 2014, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    No, it's not tough to tell where we are. In 2000 the NASDAQ P/E was 100. Now, it's one-fifth of that (21.75, to be exact).
    2 Mar 2014, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Zalach

     

    Love that description of "waffle between the sky is falling and where did all these unicorns and rainbows come from..."

     

    I feel it hourly as I read SA articles. I'm particularly having a hard time with how to rule out the noise when reading about individual stocks.
    2 Mar 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Newbie,
    I agree that (TSLA) has indeed gone parabolic and these type of moves always end badly,,

     

    My preference is to not try & pick that top but rather wait..

     

    U might also find if u set tight stops on a stock like this , u will get whipsawed and when the dust settles you'll rack up losses by constantly trying to make that winning trade..

     

    I f i put on my trader hat here , the first sign of weakness will take it down to the 218 area , the site of the "gap" , when the stock broke out on 2/25,, typically that will hold because traders that missed the breakout will move in to press the upside. From there it trades back up or moves sideways. IMO it won't be until u see a decided break below that breakout (217-218) before I would even consider any attempt at the downside..

     

    When the market does finally slow down and correct .. (TSLA) the high flyers like TSLA will get taken down hard.. So IMO why try to be a hero , why not wait for that decided downtrend to be in place . like it was last Oct when it went from 190 to 116..
    Having said all of that Im not a short term or swing trader , so while its nice to talk about these things I don't view that strategy as growing wealth over a period of time . For me ,it's too distracting , & it takes away from what I'm trying to accomplish
    It's appealing and looks easy ... Over the long haul statistics show that the majority of traders lose money ..
    Been there, done that , in a former life :)
    Happy investing !
    2 Mar 2014, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @F&G
    Well...190 hum... I would certainly keep an eye for that now! LOL XD. But from the price now to 218 area is still a drop of ~26 and with prices went up so much... I think people would try to take profit. Then there is the possible big crash to ~122. (A possible ~122 drop... I am counting chickens before they hatch here, but then again, it's a good bet XD) Oh! the irony. I, too afraid to long stock for a prolonged period of time for a fear of an epic crash that usually comes in decades, am taking a far higher risk, to get a lower return than staying in the market. >_<" LOL

     

    But I mean... come on! The company has a small customer base, banned or limited in 48 states, only sells cars that's full electric, have tones of skeptics, just started working on a "Giga-factory" for its batteries, has a stock price doubled that of Toyota, and even one analyst says its stock price is only worth 65 dollars. Even if you are an investor, the return from this one trade here looks way better. Again, I see the irony here, but I also think a big crash is near. :3

     

    This just looks too appetizing... (TSLA) feels like a porn star to me right now. LOL (I'll think about alimony later...) but thanks for the advice. XD
    2 Mar 2014, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    @FG - thanks for the detailed thoughts above. It is pretty much in line with my train of thought on trying to short that right now. That thing (tsla) swings violently without warning on any piece of news. Fascinating to watch. I probably only have the point of view because I don't have any skin in the game heh.

     

    I hit forty and realized what I was doing wasn't going to work for retirement. I am trying to learn from those who came before me and take the easy route this time... take advantage of those long haul statistics. So, again, thanks for the sharing of knowledge and insights.
    2 Mar 2014, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    "I hit forty and realized what I was doing wasn't going to work for retirement. I am trying to learn from those who came before me and take the easy route this time... take advantage of those long haul statistics. So, again, thanks for the sharing of knowledge and insights."

     

    Same here. I wish I realized this 10 years ago. Missed a decade of compounding results.
    2 Mar 2014, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Zalach, Cwinn

     

    Can you share, what you were doing before that didn't work well enough vs. your approach now?
    2 Mar 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Outside of retirement accounts in my taxable account I was just acting based on noise. Doing stupid things like buying into the hype at highs and then sell out during the collapse. Chasing. Watching huge gains wiped out by huge loses. Just spinning my wheels. Didn't 'wake up' until I was about 37-38. Finally decided to buy quality dividend payers (slow and boring) that were at fair value. Been trying now to get better at finding quality that happens to be undervalued.
    2 Mar 2014, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    Sure - venting past mistakes helps, right? lol

     

    I contributed to what my employer would match in the 401k. After moving to my 6th company I lost my 1st one because I never kept in touch with them and changed my address. (Note to others, don't do that! Fortunately, and unfortunately, it was just a couple K.) I ended up consolidating those to a Sharebuilder IRA account. That was the beginning of the DGI portfolio.

     

    We also saved a lot. Had a good savings account which was earning 4% for a while, but that dried up years ago. We have enough to live a couple years off that so coupled with the .7% APR I opened an interactive brokers account to try something more interesting. That account I am using for covered calls and puts to open. Got a couple of muni-bond CEFs in there as well. Trying to stay conservative.

     

    Up until these changes we just took the defacto ETFs that were offered by Fidelity, or ING or whoever was running the company 401k. Probably a pretty common story. Nothing too out of the ordinary.

     

    Fortunately SA contributors and commentators have really helped me come up with a plan on my own. Doing it myself even comes with a 1.5% schwag b/c of 401k yearly management fees. Pretty cool stuff!

     

    ~Zalach
    2 Mar 2014, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Cwinn, Zalach

     

    Interesting stories!! So slow but steady is winning the race :). Plus a little finesse added in... :).
    2 Mar 2014, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    The (FXI) is trading at 7x...

     

    Wouldn't it be easier to buy cheap emerging market or chinese stocks then short a market which could EASILY trade at 2,500 with the current liquidity.... it just doesn't make sense, its trying to look smart and right instead of make money.

     

    Anyone who thinks a 20% correction is likely is just an idiot... sure it could happen is it the best way to handle this market no...
    2 Mar 2014, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2718) | Send Message
     
    How do you figure FXi is trading at 7 times earnings? According to the fact sheet at end January the p/e was 15.5 and p/b 2.87.

     

    http://bit.ly/1g2Uu4x
    2 Mar 2014, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, normalized pe.
    2 Mar 2014, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16169) | Send Message
     
    Observation:

     

    The whole TSLA mania and debate about whether and when to short it is a "gambling" debate, more suitable to Las Vegas, and just a distraction from investing. Judicious investors don't waste time chasing TSLA up or trying to be a hero guessing when to chase it down.
    2 Mar 2014, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (14914) | Send Message
     
    Any opinions on the Oscars tonight ?
    2 Mar 2014, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - IT

     

    Not my cup of tea. I'll be doing other stuff :).

     

    So what's the latest hot investing idea from your blog?
    2 Mar 2014, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (14914) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH

     

    Gas !!! Natural and a very long and involved discussion about it..
    2 Mar 2014, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9787) | Send Message
     
    Some interesting data about investors.

     

    http://cnb.cx/Nkm1Yk

     

    The last part of that report indicates that many investors are concerned that with last years gains , the market can't move forward..

     

    However history shows quite a different story regarding market returns after a big year like 2013. 
    I spoke to that point here in Dec.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Mar 2014, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    Anyone else finding new posts, that they weren't notified of? I've missed some that way.
    2 Mar 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8487) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I made another chapter blog, since this one's gotten long:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Mar 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
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