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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #9 200 comments
    Mar 2, 2014 4:12 PM

    I 've set up this blog ...as community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!!

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #9. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog. Here's the prior, Chapter #8:

    seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land...

    .

    Links

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great!:
    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (200)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    With the weekend to chill, will Ukraine still be news for the stock market come this week?

     

    If weather wasn't a factor in the lower economic numbers... what did trigger a slow down in growth after Nov, Dec's better numbers?
    2 Mar 2014, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the Soviet would be satisfied with just Ukraine. Their next target should be Poland. Enough of that, but we have people calling for 1~2% drop on Monday that's if the Soviet doesn't try something funny.

     

    I believe people would soon be blaming the stronger dollar for slower growth (confusing which event came first...) It doesn't matter... I believe we are entering a new cold war and we have to figure out how to adjust our portfolio against that. (Of course, I still think Japan could fall before that.) XD
    2 Mar 2014, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    When investors are of the mindset that they want to reduce equity exposure they will use any 'excuse " like the one just presented to them with the Ukraine to sell.

     

    So , my take is that if we don't see a negative reaction, it may just be a sign that the mindset is now focused on the long side and a shot for the indexes to go higher..

     

    as of now its doesn't look like it. futures are up slightly , but sentiment can change on a dime with a new headline .. ..

     

    I'll stick to the "weather" issue until shown otherwise.. and if it is shown not to be all weather related, it might be the spark to ignite a trip to the downside..

     

    The market wants to see growth, albeit slow to continue.. Same with earnings ..
    2 Mar 2014, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Amen - the market always finds a reason to fit the market action. Often it has nothing to do with it.

     

    When I was a futures analyst with a Wall St. firm I often got calls from the media asking why the market did what it did. Often I was tempted to say "because it was open" when there was no reason for a minor move. I never did - but I was tempted.
    2 Mar 2014, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - ""because it was open." LOL :).
    2 Mar 2014, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Futures are up slightly?? Please explain.
    2 Mar 2014, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    http://bloom.bg/eF6A1C

     

    http://cnb.cx/1gLFPMH
    2 Mar 2014, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Ummm....US futures aren't open yet. Open at 6 pm. I'd be really surprised if tonight wasn't risk off, but who knows.
    2 Mar 2014, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Macro
    Really? I thought it's traded 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Well...~ then...

     

    @F&G
    please explain this. >_< LOL!
    2 Mar 2014, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Newbie ,

     

    he is correct they arent open yet.

     

    What I stated and u posted were the " last "

     

    I suspect The "bears' will have their prayers answered at the open

     

    :)
    2 Mar 2014, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Yeah, all the shorties should have a few moments of positive excitement for a change, rather than the usual disappointment. No doubt, this will be accompanied by a another round of predictions of market collapses.

     

    Just another occasion to examine the landscape and see what might get oversold in any momentary hysteria.
    2 Mar 2014, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    T,
    I already have my eye on a few interesting prospects..

     

    :)

     

    If i hear an "incessant cry of "i told you so" , it will surely be a good sign .
    2 Mar 2014, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Which prospects are top on your list? I assume it's from the various names you've been writing about.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I'll be watching the price action in (EBAY) , (AAPL) & (LAZ) in that order very closely tomorrow..
    2 Mar 2014, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    don't forget to watch (MU) weakness there could be a chance to add , lets see how it reacts tomorrow

     

    :)
    2 Mar 2014, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Did you pick up any of them? (AAPL)'s up. (EBAY)'s down, but it's got up a lot recently. I don't know (LAZ) but it's down less than the indices.
    3 Mar 2014, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    For those of you who don't have access to the futures market:
    as of 3 minutes after the open, spx down 16, russel down 14, nasdaq down 30
    2 Mar 2014, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    So the Futures aren't up??? I'm shocked.

     

    Enough with the whining comment, seriously. It's about making proper risk allocation decisions. If it makes you feel better to believe I've been a total bear since March 2009, please go ahead. Unbelievable.

     

    This has NOTHING to do with Ukraine. I don't see where our economy is in the least tied to Ukraine's The market is overbought and overconfident, and needed an excuse. Any would have done just fine.

     

    Markets make the news, not the other way around.
    2 Mar 2014, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    Russia invades Ukraine, but the futures are down because of our economy. ROFLMAO.

     

    Just enjoy your opportunity to make a few quick bucks, rather than losing money. You'll look a lot smarter if you bank the gains and say less.
    2 Mar 2014, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    You guys really don't understand much, about how institutional guys make decisions, I suspect.
    2 Mar 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    @Macro
    I don't. Please share what you know. X3 I would love to learn a new way to make money. :3
    2 Mar 2014, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    People are divided into two classes: those who panic and those who don't. Institutional types are divided exactly the same way.

     

    Hysteria will rule for a short while unless things fulminate in a manner that has real global economic impact. But, absent that, whether Ukrainians or Russia runs its moribund economy will make little lasting difference.
    2 Mar 2014, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    This is news to me. Institutional types come in the panic variation too? For real? How do you get into those jobs without enough experience not to panic?

     

    -
    Macro

     

    How do institutional guys make decision? Big mystery to me. ...and I suspect the MW articles i've read (and ignored) weren't "enlightening me" :).
    Ops - just noticed that you've already written about this below.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    It's called being emotional human beings. Of course they panic. Both on the upside and the downside. You just may not see it.

     

    There were guys last year, its safe to say, going home every night stressed about getting fired, because they got caught too flat and lagging the SPX.

     

    So how do you catch up? You pile into the riskiest high beta sectors. Whats been leading lately?

     

    See any risk in that approach -- if you follow them in?
    2 Mar 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    I forget their jobs depend on those returns and perceived handling of the market.

     

    On money, I've got the luxury of practically ignoring it & letting it ride the waves for years...

     

    In my profession, it's the customers who are panicked because they're clueless, and we're calm because what's happening is not a mystery to us.
    5 Mar 2014, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    The first rule in making money is to try hard not to lose money.

     

    And that comes from piling long into complacent markets. In other words; Institutions chase markets higher, because they have to. Its the way the system is set up. Most of these guys running money will never get fired for being long too many stocks and the market collapses, thats the markets fault. Hey, it's not THEIR money anyway, its client money. What do they care?

     

    However in a runaway bull -- if they are underinvested or lag the averages -- they are (often) history. Gone. Thats why they chase, they are usually completely long after a long bull like we've had ( and they are now -- Totally long), and no - one wants to be the first to sell. Until you get a convenient excuse they can hang their hat on.

     

    Thats why it's little to do with Russia taking over, a tiny part of Ukraine with mostly Russian influence anyway, is really little to do with the market reaction.

     

    China is a much, much bigger future (potential ) influence.
    2 Mar 2014, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    The futures have knee-jerk panic attacks incessantly, every time CNN finds some large fonts and bold print to make some breathless headline. It's not the exception, it's virtually the steadfast rule.

     

    You're really having the audacity to suggest that tonight's futures reaction isn't attached to Ukraine, but is just coincidental in its timing, and that the market has decided that the top has been reached and the "correction" starts tomorrow, Ukraine or no Ukraine? Honestly, Macro, I don't care whether you ever made a dime shorting or trading, this is a ridiculous claim.
    2 Mar 2014, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    So I assume you'll be buying then on the open?
    2 Mar 2014, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Thanks for that institutional description. I've heard that before, as why individuals can beat the market more easily than funds managers can... It's helpful to see the details.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I may buy, if and when I see any issue, of the type I follow, behave in any overreactionary manner. More often than not, I sell OTM puts in high volatility environments, which is an even better approach.

     

    Always, anything I do is targeted at individual issues. I never buy or sell the market.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    This is not a large move. I'm certainly not calling for any crash out of this event. Crashes don't occur very often. I certainly don't recall calling for one. A possible cyclical topping phase, yes. I don't know ONE intelligent person I follow -- and I follow a lot of traders and writers -- calling for a crash.

     

    I don't follow the fringe calling for a crash the last 30 years. Give your head a shake.

     

    This -- "everyone's been calling for a crash" -- that"s total utter crap.

     

    As QE winds down -- assuming they let it -- we might just grind lower in a frustrating manner for dip buyers, as PE ratios compress. Maybe while the economy muddles along. Stocks still might go down.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I added to my treasuries exposure on the open via futures.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Everyone's kind of saying the same thing. That the market had it's own reasons for wanting to do down (such as uncertainty about whether the economy's lower numbers were from weather, or simply a bit rich & time for a back off)... and Ukraine is an excuse.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    Not exactly.

     

    The market would panic, as futures show, on Ukraine news, regardless. It's only the "excuse" for a valuation-based sell-off if we see the selling extended into a continuing pattern.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    Okay, that makes sense on how to tell if it's panic over the news, or an excuse. (I just saw this posting today Mar 5...)
    5 Mar 2014, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    My question on weather is, if it's not the cause of the slower economic data, what would be causing the economic slowdown? Does it tend to go in starts and fits like this? The big shift down didn't seem natural to me.

     

    Macro

     

    Ukraine takeover is much bigger issue than just a small bit. It's a major "superpower" taking land outside of due process in essentially an act of war, instead of through negotiation. Also while that area has Russian speakers, there's still of lot of those speakers who are ethnically Ukranian or the other big another ethnic group there (name's escaping me.) Not saying this is meaningful for the market, just a political observation.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Exactly how should this event, in isolation, affect SPX earnings?
    2 Mar 2014, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I don't understand your question. My post was two unrelated topics, the first general to everyone. The 2nd in response to something you'd posted.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Barring some unpredictable escalation, it won't affect anything, and that's why it will prove a good opportunity to look for value during the period of hysteria. The market always returns to sanity when it digests the obvious reality that Ukraine matters no more than Greece, Turkey, Argentina or Syria.

     

    Of course, if "real" countries get into conflict, that's another matter.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    My point is considered in isolation T is correct below.

     

    However the market is not short or intermediate term a rational but rather a physiological creature, both up and down.

     

    So IF -- a BIG IF -- the market is LOOKING for an excuse for risk off -- as I think it is -- this could be one. Thats a BIG if that will be proven or disproven. If we ignore this and roar back fast and makes new sustained highs without resolution -- tells you a lot and I will trade accordingly. Its another puzzle piece. Lets see what happens.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    My post wasn't saying Ukraine effected SP earnings. They were two separate topics, I happen to put into one post, with 2nd topic addressed to you.

     

    Moving to another topic, from the last chapter, I'm wondering still by "topping phase" what that means to you. Is that top of a correction, crash, or not necessarily either but start of a bear phase? You've explained that you didn't mean an "imminent top."
    2 Mar 2014, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    It won't
    2 Mar 2014, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Gosh; I don't know. NO-ONE can predict a "top" within any time window. I see a topping phase developing, of unknown duration, followed by a bear phase, of unknown degree and duration -- but a measurable length of time. And can all be changed by events.

     

    We could sell off, rally back, sell off, ect...But I DO see us breaking the Jan lows. When -- NO IDEA

     

    Perhaps we simply correct to the 200 day MA on the SPX. Yes, still a bull market -- but a great correction to trade to the downside!
    2 Mar 2014, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Thanks!! That gives me a much better idea of what you mean... and all the ways the market might play out :).

     

    Hopefully, with having profitable trades all along the way!
    5 Mar 2014, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Bonds, Gold, Yen soaring here.
    2 Mar 2014, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    You'd think from the belief of the comment stream every SA author is running out the door right now to buy his canned goods and ammo, LOL
    2 Mar 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Snows expected again. Or ice. So I'm sure the grocery stores are packed right now. Time to shovel... again.

     

    BSF - did your trees ever survive that last time?
    2 Mar 2014, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Hi Lomah, haven't lost any more branches since the last big storm. All over my town, there are lots of branches & even some trees that came down. We had so much snow….for days it stayed on the trees. What a lousy winter! More snow expected tonight, more in south Jersey than north.

     

    Then we get another storm in a couple of days.

     

    Prediction….the market is jittery about a lot of things, but if the jobs market is better than expected we will be up next week.

     

    I say let the Crimea vote. Majority of the people living there are Russian; Putin is trying to protect his naval base etc. Wasn't that long ago that this region was part of Russia. Good grief, the war talk is ridiculous & premature.

     

    Stay focused and take advantage of the dips.

     

    I'm not selling any of my stocks. I'd rather keep collecting the dividends & keep buying more on the dips.

     

    I love volatility, just gives me a chance to get my chosen stocks at better prices.
    2 Mar 2014, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF

     

    Good :).
    5 Mar 2014, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Long Bonds are really going -- likely my key trade.

     

    Watching copper for a confirmed breakdown there.

     

    See the SPX is full of high quality companies, including many defensives. To bet on a "crash" in that -- well pretty rare. Too much rotation.

     

    Now the "small caps" -- Russel 2000 (IWM) -- thats another story. They could drop 30% in the right environment.
    2 Mar 2014, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Short Copper 3.18

     

    Weak China PMI
    2 Mar 2014, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Data from Schaeffer research ,

     

    "SPX component short interest up 4.13% in most recent report, highest level since mid '12 and +9.5% YoY"

     

    "With only 39% of retail investors surveyed expressing a bullish view in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey, it appears institutional money is pushing the market higher. In fact, our options analysis suggests some hedge funds could be increasing stock exposure, even as they stay committed to short positions."

     

    The short interest data is a good contrary indicator..
    2 Mar 2014, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Actually the bullish percentage is in line with the historical averages and the people responding bearishly was less than the average. So the bull:bear percentage is actually above historical levels. There was a big pop in the "neutral" category.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Note I think these AAII figures bounce around too much to be much use except at extremes in those readings, but I think Shaeffer is stretching to be contrarily bullish.
    3 Mar 2014, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    "The short interest data is a good contrary indicator.."

     

    Really? I don't think so, actually.
    3 Mar 2014, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    I gather data from many sources to assist in preparing my own strategy on the market..

     

    over the years i Have found it best to seek out those that have had a good track record and have been "right" in their most recent views. I.E I am not an economist ,BUT i try to follow economists that have had the story correct to formulate ideas on that topic......

     

    In my view , It wouldn't make much sense to follow a zerohedge or a Hussman or anyone that has by their strategy and opinion shown to have been on the "wrong" side of the trade ...

     

    To oversimplify, that has meant following that "bear' case and calling "tops' ,waiting to eventually be right , well they have committed financial suicide.. In essence, their accounts have been left for dead..

     

    I use Schaeffer Research as one of those outfits that have been on the right " side of the trade ..
    The data they present is factual and of course can be interpreted as one sees fit

     

    and one can continue to commit financial suicide or one can choose another path...
    3 Mar 2014, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    I agree on Zerohedge and Hussman - both are hazardous to your wealth. And Shaeffer may be doing a good overall job - but I stick with my opinion that on their analysis of the latest AAII readings are biased.
    3 Mar 2014, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    Fair enough ...
    3 Mar 2014, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, I place almost no stock in sentiment data of any kind. Very fickle. Pay attention to what people do, not what they say. Follow the money, and look at put/call ratios, instead.
    3 Mar 2014, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    put /call ratios again notes from Schaefer:

     

    "One thing we continue to monitor is the level of put buying relative to call buying on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) created to mirror major equity benchmarks. When the ratio of put buying to call buying is moving higher -- as it has been of late -- it is usually a sign that hedged money is shifting into equities, which has had bullish implications. Additionally, we have seen CBOE Volatility Index (VIX - 14.00) futures call buying increase relative to put buying since mid-February, and VIX calls are another tool for hedging. The ratio of VIX call buying to put buying rolled over just ahead of the pullback in January.

     

    Their thoughts :
    "Put buying on equity-index ETFs is increasing relative to call activity, coincident with markets moving higher -- a sign that hedged money may be moving into stocks in a cautious manner"

     

    and a picture:
    http://bit.ly/1hBrDIV

     

    I'll leave the data open to everyone's own interpretation.. :)
    3 Mar 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    "US Feb. PMI Manufacturing 57.1 vs consensus of 56.6 53.7 in Jan."

     

    So when the dust clears (or the DUST goes up), looks like good economic info.
    3 Mar 2014, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    and some info on China

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Mar 2014, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    & all of that in the bad weather the country has experienced --- :)
    3 Mar 2014, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    My preference is for the ISM report that was also better than expected. The report you cited is from Markit and it doesn't have a long history.

     

    http://bit.ly/quMVtJ
    3 Mar 2014, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    As a follow up to my comments from last night

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I added (EBAY) $57.92 & (AAPL) $523.78 as "trades" at the open ...

     

    This commentary on (EBAY) was prepared over the weekend, i just updated it to reflect the purchase price

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Happy Investing !
    3 Mar 2014, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Major changes this morning, too busy to list all.

     

    Strong data and limited reaction, covered a lot of shorts, bond longs, shorted gold related. Long AAPL
    3 Mar 2014, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Commentary from the attached article

     

    " In an indication of client wariness about stocks, cash balances in their brokerage accounts of $112 billion are "about the highest level I can remember," wrote Kowach, a 21-year veteran of the securities industry."

     

    http://yhoo.it/1gN73mf

     

    everyone is all in ??
    3 Mar 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Not much of a selloff today, even before the positive data. Could be more tomorrow if R-U doesn't get resolved?

     

    What a day for (MU) to pick to rally - up .9% so far.
    3 Mar 2014, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    have to like what we are seeing so far today with (MU) , good strength given the "down" market.. (MU) was oversold going into the weekend . So was (AAPL)

     

    Look for stocks that are 'green" and showing strength , that exhibits underlying support ...
    3 Mar 2014, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - (MU)

     

    Maybe this PR announcement contributed...

     

    "Micron Technology Appoints Darren Thomas as Vice President of Storage Business Unit"

     

    http://bit.ly/NOG5C5
    3 Mar 2014, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    I saw a report that they also presented info at an investors conf. today ..

     

    If they had good things to say there it helps ,
    3 Mar 2014, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I've covered most of my short exposure, in respect for the strong US PMI and other data. This is a surprise to me. Combined with continuing liquidity, and Bonds / YEN not confirming a major risk off move, I've flattened out.

     

    Added short Silver, Short (GDXJ), long (AAPL). Sold most Bond options as well, strong data. Will revisit that trade at a later time. All exits today were profitable.
    3 Mar 2014, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    I just bought BRKB under $115; no other trades yet but I have orders in below the market. I can't become aggressive yet since I can't see Putin backing down easily and this could go on for awhile. Higher energy isn't good for Europe or emerging markets. And while the US data was decent, it wasn't enough to say GDP or earnings is higher than expected. The market isn't even down 2% from Fridays highs.
    3 Mar 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    This might turn into an extended churning at the highs type of market.
    3 Mar 2014, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Yes, and if we get a lot of horizontal consolidation, then dividend payers and assorted yield plays will perform well.

     

    P.S. Think your trades/covers were good, judicious and "non-piggish."
    3 Mar 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    The trade thesis was a "test", like all thesis should be.

     

    Economic Numbers have been more solid lately. ISM was key for me. Market is resilient to external events. So I covered.

     

    The short trade is still the "hard trade" -- too hard at this time. We can disagree on the source, but I agree there is a lot of liquidity.

     

    I still do think -- the next major move is down. But no idea when and not likely today.
    3 Mar 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    T:

     

    Wha is your opinion on Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY)? It yields +8% (according to marketwatch) and is deeply undervalued, even more so today, currently down by c. -10% with the Russian hysteria news. Always looking for contrarian deep value/high yield plays.

     

    Brazilian SID also down -10% last 2 trading days....

     

    Thanks
    3 Mar 2014, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    I haven't followed Gazprom, but sure will now.

     

    I can't figure this one out, as revenues, earnings and owner's equity have been in a steady uptrend for five years, yet the shares have been trending down for three years, long before the Ukraine hysteria, which just adds to the effect. Their debt is extremely low, too.

     

    Gazprom has not issued a dividend since May 2012, so the yield, presently, is effectively zero.

     

    The Ukraine affair should be meaningless to Gazprom, as all the parties that need gas will continue to need it, no matter who's running what.

     

    My instincts scream very undervalued, but I need to get a better feeling for this animal.
    3 Mar 2014, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Are you risking nationalization? Even in Brazil -- PBR is effectively nationalized.
    3 Mar 2014, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Sure don't think so. Brazil and Russia are vastly different.

     

    In Brazil (and Argentina) socialist politicians force companies that serve the public to operate in a non-economic fashion, just to buy votes. That's hardly the case with Russia or Gazprom (take a look at their five-year nums).
    3 Mar 2014, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    T:

     

    "Gazprom has not issued a dividend since May 2012".

     

    Your source?
    3 Mar 2014, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    Etrade and Yahoo, although another commenter in a Gazprom article claims they have paid a 2013 dividend, but that it does not yet appear on their English-language page. I have no idea.
    3 Mar 2014, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Keeping with the stocks that are 'green" & showing strength

     

    (BBBY) , I've mentioned before -- the day is not over but it just turned positive amid the overall sell off... :)
    3 Mar 2014, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    An article on the Stock/Bond correlation ... This guy has a pretty good track record..

     

    http://bit.ly/1dU8XiI
    3 Mar 2014, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I am long (AAPL) @ 526, long (ISRG) at 456, also short puts; short (GDXJ) as the gold trade runs out of gas, short (SLW). Lots of cash, see how things shake out.

     

    Have to be impressed with that ISM data -- take it at face value.
    3 Mar 2014, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    One can go long, one can go short, but first one must listen to the market when it is tested. Today it passes the test. There is no selling interest on any declines.
    3 Mar 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    Agreed , I didn't see anything to change my overall view on the market..

     

    I like your (ISRG) play here .. a breakout on a day when most were in the red .. I see $500 there --- good Luck !

     

    if we get any positive news on the Ukraine front , your metals shorts will shine ...
    3 Mar 2014, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Already are. Shorted GDXJ 43.50, offered 42.
    3 Mar 2014, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I think the gold stocks have had their day.
    3 Mar 2014, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    What a difference a day makes! Putin is making nice and US futures are above Fridays close. Was I ever wrong to think this could last for awhile.
    4 Mar 2014, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    Watch (LOW). Premarket down 14.5%. Where does it finish the day???
    4 Mar 2014, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Obviously the quote was a bad one or it was one of those rogue trades. Whenever you see a supposed trade like that check out the bid/ask.
    4 Mar 2014, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I just walked into my office and it was back up over $7/share from when I left the house.
    4 Mar 2014, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    Anybody buy stocks yesterday? I bought (GOOG) (TSLA) (SCTY) (WDAY) (BGS) & (FB)

     

    Looking forward to the market today.

     

    Always buy the dips…even if it's just a few shares.
    4 Mar 2014, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    The only stock I bought was brkb, but I bought call options as well on brkb, spy and lyb.
    4 Mar 2014, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    added more (AAPL),(MU),(EBAY) , AAPL & MU more of a trade around my LT position.. both showed good strength in a bad day ...

     

    (EBAY) has been in my call writing portfolio, IMO the stock has now broken out and headed to mid 60's ...

     

    I pulled the trigger on a new name (LAZ) ,good intermediate - LT hold ... decent Div.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Mar 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I was hoping we would get one more days to pick up bargains, but darn the market is going up today ; )
    4 Mar 2014, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    I missed it yesterday. Was thinking it'd last longer, & was out for an appt.

     

    Russell 2000 is climbing no end today... can this really hold?
    4 Mar 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    2014

     

    Money flow so far in 2014 ; from ConvergEX

     

    ETF inflows and outflows were reviewed and revealed something rather interesting – after an incredible year in 2013, investors are now shuffling their portfolio assets back toward bond ETFs and away from stock ETFs. We’ve seen $17.7 billion go into bond ETFs since January 1st while a net $16.3 billion has come out of their equity counterparts…

     

    But the big winner so far this year – both in terms of performance and asset gathering – is not the bond market or the stock market. It’s commodities, Wall Street’s most reviled asset class by far. Here’s ConvergEx again:

     

    Commodity oriented ETFs are up $887 million in new assets during February, after losing $25.6 billion over the last year.

     

    Happy Investing
    4 Mar 2014, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    More changes. Back in 3 shorts, TSLA LNKD GMCR, Long DNN; bought my treasury options back, closed gold shorts.
    4 Mar 2014, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    "closed gold shorts"

     

    nice trade !
    4 Mar 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Getting pretty net short here again, High PE stuff, long Treasuries.
    4 Mar 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    This rally was a ton of short covering. I'd be cautious after an emotional rally. ((TSLA) looks shaky here (LNKD) downright sickly. Also reverse (ISRG) logn to short, news there.

     

    Gold "should" have gone down much more.

     

    I also bought Gazprom (small) and (MBT) Ukraine telcom.
    4 Mar 2014, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Wish I'd been around yesterday when Gazprom choked. Got some at open.
    4 Mar 2014, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I still like that (ISRG) technical picture , analysts downgrades don't bother me ,,, In fact this one smells like a can of sardines , LOL

     

    many firms will do just that on a technical breakout , bring the price down , then get on board...

     

    I have enough exposure here in the markets , so i don't need another high priced stock added ..

     

    BUT this one may be interesting to watch play out -- price right now it's $446 .

     

    we'll see if i'm right about the smelly downgrade from Cantor - LOL
    4 Mar 2014, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    T:

     

    Any final research info. on Gazprom's yield?
    4 Mar 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Mar 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    Back yet into the "real" world? Stay warm enough :).
    5 Mar 2014, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Gazprom is Russian oil & gas. Any thoughts on buying Russian ETFs or other stocks?
    5 Mar 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Back from the snowy slopes late last night. Will miss it. Whistler is a beautiful place to be in winter.

     

    I see the world is still here. :-)
    5 Mar 2014, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    No (ISRG) short, could'nt get stock. Long a TON of Sept (TLT) calls, bonds hold higher lows -- again.
    4 Mar 2014, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    So in shorting the likes of (TSLA) is it a hunch or is there some data that you are specifically looking at pertaining to Tesla which leads you to the short play?
    4 Mar 2014, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Technical.
    4 Mar 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Did you learn technicals from a good source? ...or is a lot like Fear, a sense of how things moved based on experience?
    4 Mar 2014, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Experience and study.
    4 Mar 2014, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Do you have any favorite books for technicals? I was trying to figure out if you'd found experience the key to learning this, compared to study.
    5 Mar 2014, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Monster day in (IWM), glad I'm not short that.Pretty emotional buying here -- or short covering.
    4 Mar 2014, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    I know you can't time an index, but I sold a bunch of (IWM) except a core position at 120.17. I'll be able to buy these back lower in the next few days, gotta be? (IWM's still climbing, so looking like a dumb move right now, at 120.40.) Opinions welcome :)

     

    -
    I notice almost all of my individual stocks are not back up to where they were early Jan, even though they're climbing. So...there's still room for index to climb, which feeds the positive momentum... They're mostly large caps.

     

    -
    It's been great to see what everyone's trading and why. Being "new," it's lots to learn from.
    4 Mar 2014, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    LMH - I think you're in OK shape today with the IWM. Odds are the market will give back some of the gains later in the session ahead of tomorrows ADP report. But if I were you and really wanted to be long - if there is weakness today - I'd buy back half of what I wanted.

     

    Today is exceptionally strong and the IWM had a bullish macd crossover on the weekly chart (as did the Nasdaq - but not the Dow or S&P). This could simply be short covering and not mean anything - the real issue is how the data is later in the week, but better to be safe than sorry.
    4 Mar 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I'd dump it all! You don't worry about missing 20 or 30 cents. Take the money
    4 Mar 2014, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Short (ZNGA)
    4 Mar 2014, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I found today's action mildly concerning, and frustrating. Did I get hurt? No, a postive day. Did I underperform? Yes. Why? Refusal to chase.

     

    That was a wild move in the (IWM) for 5 years into a recovery. Wild -- biggest day since 2011. Is that short covering -- or a lot of chasing? Not sure. Yeah everything was up. I still don't like what stocks were up -- seems more speculative. Znga, Cann, Bldp, huge moves.

     

    Just not willing to chase extended stuff here. Sold out (aapl) as it was acting like a total dog. Value is out. Tough market for me.

     

    Back modestly net short, Tsla, LNKD. Gold confusing too. Not much of a selloff there.
    4 Mar 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    CNN fear greed index, now 74. Rocketed higher.
    4 Mar 2014, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Take away the 'threat " and Fear selling because of the Ukraine ,and Fundamental econ. data & earnings take center stage

     

    ...Besides the overall strength in all of the indexes, I was pleased with the move in the financials , (JPM) (GS) (BAC) , (C), (LAZ) all had nice gains , they were lagging and now may lead as money may rotate back into them -- and many aren't selling at book value here, they are inexpensive.. Money can easily go back to them..

     

    As I mentioned last week , IF the financials get a bid and this strength continues it bodes well for further advances..

     

    transport also had a good day

     

    As I mentioned last week , IF the financials get a bid and their strength continues it bodes well for further advances..

     

    Dow 30 and Dow Transports can now sniff the old highs , IF those two continue and take those levels out , it adds more fuel ......
    4 Mar 2014, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1fCHt6X

     

    A good read.
    4 Mar 2014, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Good article!

     

    Klarman seems pretty dim on Europe. He's also saying QE gave customers lower debit, so increased consumer spending. Is there any data that supports this directly?

     

    -
    Anyone have opinion of
    "Seth Klarman, author of the popular and now out of print book "Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor"?

     

    -
    Good line :)
    "the stock market, heading into 2014, resembles a Rorschach test,” he wrote. “What investors see in the inkblots says considerably more about them than it does about the market.”

     

    -
    and this one:
    "Frankly, wouldn’t it be easier if the Fed would just announce the proper level for the S&P, and spare us all the policy announcements and market gyrations?” he said in a somewhat hilarious moment that bears a degree of truth."
    4 Mar 2014, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Nice to see there are bears making a vocal case for themselves,,

     

    However , I 'll take the other side of that argument :)
    4 Mar 2014, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    He gives first a bull, then a bear perspective. He's definitely not a bear, hence the rorschach test quote :).
    4 Mar 2014, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    L.
    I took my view from the title :

     

    Fed Created Truman Show Style Faux Economy

     

    and this statement : Seth Klarman’s fund, which in 2013 had a high of 50% of his portfolio in cash,

     

    2013 was a pretty good year for equities.. and he was 50% in cash ..

     

    Hence my view ;)

     

    4 Mar 2014, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I would respect anything a guy like Seth says. No one on SA is qualified to carry his briefcase.

     

    So what if he was half in cash? He clearly doesn't approve of the valuations. Judge him on the long term returns. I'd much rather give him my money than some idiot chasing the high beta stuff here.

     

    Maybe if I ever run a billion dollars like he has I'd be qualified to criticize.
    4 Mar 2014, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    I have a great deal of respect for Klarman, but as a deep value guy he will miss out in a mo-mo driven market like this one. Over the long course of history, however, he had done quite well.

     

    The only thing that supports his argument that lower debt increased consumer spending is the fact that income growth has been much smaller that spending growth. But logically it makes sense that with all those able to refinance their mortgages lower on the decline in interest rates over the past few years, that if you spend less each month on your mortgage payment you have more money left over for other things.
    5 Mar 2014, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD, FG, Macro

     

    "Value guy" - does explain a lot. I was wondering if he does conservative portfolios, so he'd be in cash more in this environment.

     

    "income growth has been much smaller that spending growth"
    That's a good supportive data. I'd counter his argument, that for retirees & near retirement & ZIRP, many are living more carefully. Not sure how much retirees spend compared to newly married and with (ahem, expensive) kids.

     

    The article tells me that there are real institutional investors mumbling about the same worry concerns that show up in MW & SA, and that I ignore. (Even if Klarman is pointing at others, not himself.) That effects how the market reacts, psychologically.
    5 Mar 2014, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I continue to distrust the earnings quality of this market.

     

    Way too many non - GAAP earnings results. Yet another warning for me.
    4 Mar 2014, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    On non-GAAP, are you thinking "fishy" or more along the lines of buybacks, and revenue coming in low, while earnings are fine & the various book tricks to make it so. So of that has to be using technology better...?
    5 Mar 2014, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Thanks DD! And Macro!

     

    Sold rest of (IWM) 120.34. Then AHs just bought back less than 1/2 at 119.82. DD- I've done reasonably at selling at highs, but then not at buying back... so that was helpful -- and it's the right move for me.

     

    (iwm) didn't have much of a drop at end of day, and AHs was asking 120.00, more than it's close. So this seems wild to me too. In the 9 months I've been watching the market I've never seen an IWM move over 2.25%-ish.

     

    I got lucky AHs...yay. Ask was 120. Hemmed, shrugged, went to unloaded groceries, checked again, now 119.82. But right after I bought, back up close to 120. So I slipped in :). Small difference, but pays all today's commissions!

     

    -
    Which brings up a question I've wondered -- can an AHs buy or sell can move the price displayed, especially on smaller vol shares with a larger purchase? Or does it only depend on the ask/bids being entered by the buyers/sellers directly.

     

    -
    Macro - fear greed index - does that one tend to change on a dime... or is it high enough to be notable?
    4 Mar 2014, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I got back in safely with small reduction in cost basis (.4% saved).
    And glad to be out for the risk of a big slide back after the wild ride up.

     

    Thanks Macro & DD for your suggestions! Timing's hard to learn by "reading" about it.
    5 Mar 2014, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Oil companies at risk?

     

    "BP and Chevron (CVX) rank among the biggest losers if Russia-Ukraine tension grows worse",
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    -
    Listening to the news tonight, doesn't sound like the happy-it's-over dance of the market today -- at all. Any thoughts?
    4 Mar 2014, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    L,
    after that type of single day advance - time to pause, consolidate

     

    Watch for $ rotation, see how the financials do in the next day or so, (LAZ) had a nice move yesterday and may now attract more $ , (EBAY) isn't done yet. neither is (MU) , In my view Any pulback on those names is an opportunity

     

    I mentioned that Individual stock selection will be key in 2014, i continue to believe that .. and as testament to that ..

     

    the oils have had a nice run-- the three I selected for 2014 and mentioned here have huge gains in the last 2 months (PXD),from 164 to 204

     

    (CXO), from 97 to 122

     

    (WLL) from 57 to 71

     

    They are up over 25% this year , the S & P is up 1.3%

     

    So we should start to see money moving from stocks like these to the lagging sectors..

     

    Happy Investing !
    Full disclosure I own all stocks mentioned..
    5 Mar 2014, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Flat market,

     

    BUT financials (GS) , (C), (BAC) (JPM) , (LAZ) all up sharply..

     

    So those that "looked" weak my now "lead"
    5 Mar 2014, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG,

     

    That's a good point - that rotation into lagging sectors may well bring the best returns this year. It's definitely going to be a more sophisticated market by money managers, just as non-investors get more comfortable and start dipping in, probably largely into ETFs.

     

    I'd been watching (WLL) but it climbed before I could get in. Oh well. I'll have to catch the next round of rotations. Maybe the retail area, since weather will start breaking soon?

     

    Do financials have a "special" role in signaling how the market is doing? Even SA's breaking news lists Consumer & Financial in it's main menu choices.
    5 Mar 2014, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Many think Financials are the key to taking the market higher, they represent 20% of the S & P, so if they move up they will pull the averages higher . The fact that the S & p is at these levels with the financials lagging shows the underlying strength in the market ..

     

    Thanks for reminding me of the retail sector, they too may see money rotate in....

     

    Laggards may now become leaders.. (BBBY) (http://bit.ly/KPnoYz)
    5 Mar 2014, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    20% of SP, ooh, big kahunas :).

     

    Never heard of (LAZ) before but interesting tidbit on the research page -- M&A (Mergers) are a key focus of theirs. Obviously that climate's gotten more active this year so far.

     

    Lagging? They're up 50% the past 8 months. And near 52-week high now.

     

    Retail, Macy's seems to be consistently strong, beyond the current sector environment. Any thoughts on (COH) that Yair & BSF liked?
    5 Mar 2014, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    u got me on (LAZ) , :)

     

    i should have referenced my comments to indicate the "short term" as they pulled back 15% this year from there recent highs ....

     

    That is indicative of how individual names have corrected . and now may be ready to resume their run.. or another example of rotation..

     

    I owned (COH) in the past and did Ok with it.. I sold around 52 or so. It is intriguing at these levels , but have to admit , i'm wondering about the whole (KORS) taking share from them talk..

     

    Positives are --- I do like their management team and believe they will get the ship turned around , and they do pay a decent Div.

     

    I'm waiting to see the next earnings report , as I just have feeling I can buy the shares back down around the recent low of 44 or 10% lower form here.. Just my '02 on that name ..
    5 Mar 2014, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Heads up! BRKB looks like it's in the process of breaking out of its 7 month trading range. If you don't want to take the risk buying near 119 - note the call options are very cheap. The April 120 calls are trading around $1.60 - roughly 12.5% implied volatility.

     

    The following chart is one of the reasons I like brkb. It had been weak relative to the S&P but looks like it just held a long term uptrend. Note brkb often does best against the S&P when the S&P is weak so it's also relatively defensive. The price/book is about 1.3, near the low end of where it has traded over the past few years. Buffett has said he will being using his cash to buy back stock if the p/b falls below 1.2

     

    http://bit.ly/1c9J2bL
    5 Mar 2014, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Thanks for the heads up!

     

    Looking it up, it is above & breaking out above a long term trading range... PE 15.0 - how does that compare to it's past? It doesn't pay dividends, so it's a growth only, looks like. (Not an undervalued high div that's been a lot of the postings here.) I'm thinking better at this point to wait for the post breakout pullback, which would give a chance to see what the market does this week generally.

     

    BTW, in SA bracketed () symbols can be moused over to find out the name.

     

    -
    Anyone else following (BRKB)?
    5 Mar 2014, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    BRKB's valuation isn't measured by its p/e but by it's price relative to book value. Right now it's a smidgen over 1.3 which is historically a fairly low level, but in general it's been weaker over the past few years than in the past - I think largely because of Berkshires size and the difficulty of moving the needle. The Morningstar analyst expects its 2014 book value to increase by 12% - book value roughly increased by 15% in 2013. Relative to the S&P Book value it's very cheap - the S&P is close to 2.8 times book. The times the S&P price/book was at this level the price/book of Berskshire was a minimum of 1.6.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gaVxj1

     

    Berkshire's a bargain relative to the S&P. What I've been doing over the past couple days is selling more of my expensive stuff and buying brkb.
    5 Mar 2014, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I'm watching it too. Market is a rock. Massive move yesterday and we give none back. Wow.

     

    I've given up on the momo shorts. It's simply too hard a trade. I've rotated into some different emerging markets, which I think will eventually attract attention. Trying to buy the cheap instead of short the expensive.

     

    EEM churns but some are breaking out, (THD) (GXG) (ephe), (idx).
    5 Mar 2014, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Some EM (and other) cheap stuff to munch on:

     

    (PBR)
    (VALE)
    (SID)
    (ABEV)
    (AKO.A)
    (OTCPK:OGZPY)
    (MHNA)
    (CH) (The CEF is at a bit of a premium, presently, but the NAV is in value territory.)
    (SQM)
    (VE)
    5 Mar 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    How do you take into account exchange rate changes when judging EM investments?
    5 Mar 2014, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    If you're asking me, I pretty much ignore them, especially if the company is an exporter, whose sales are denominated in foreign currencies.
    5 Mar 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Not thrilled with Brazil. Polls say govt will get reelected
    5 Mar 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Not thrilled with Brazil due to the govt.
    5 Mar 2014, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    But, shares have already been decimated, maybe over-discounted, and it doesn't make much difference what government is in office if all your business is somewhere else, like SID and VALE. I am more wary of major suppliers to domestic markets, like utilities and energy firms (EBR, CIG, PBR) because socialist governments love to fix prices to look like heroes to their constituents.

     

    Of course, eventually the price fixing collapses, too.
    5 Mar 2014, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    That's convincing... it's price/book being under it's historic level compared to S&Ps current level. Haven't seen yet in researching, why it's gotten low.

     

    Though that idea that they are too big to be as effective has been on the news...maybe that...

     

    Berkshire is an interesting investment, since it's investing in other companies picked by them & I assume with some management guidance by them. So kind of like a managed fund...

     

    For lurkers, here's investopedia's price/book explanation: http://bit.ly/1gSrQVk
    5 Mar 2014, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    I try to limit my investments to countries with more stable currencies, Chile and Mexico are easier than Brazil....
    6 Mar 2014, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Dancing Diva...

     

    I completely agree there is zero reason the S&P should trade at a premium to it ZERO.
    6 Mar 2014, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Tack - I agree those are cheap, but the problem is most of them have acted like dogs and the relationships between them and the broad market has broken down. There's nothing to suggest that won't continue. My preference is to buy at relative support in a relationship.
    6 Mar 2014, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Yair, I disagree. The S&P should trade at a premium to BRK since BRK is first and foremost an insurance company which never commands the type of premium that most stocks do to book. However, BRK has now slipped so low below the historical relationship that it makes it look very attractive.
    6 Mar 2014, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    DD:

     

    I agree it's still early and nobody should jump in with both feet, but it's precisely because these issues are "dogs" and their relationships have broken from Brazilian market performance that there is an undervalued situation. EWZ is down 45% in three years, while VALE is down almost 60%, and SID and PBR are near 75%.
    6 Mar 2014, 04:42 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I would jump in with both feet if the govt changed.

     

    I have bought several other EM's in Asia and south america. All are dirt cheap as well. The Eem is testing upside resistance, breaking it may draw in some money.

     

    I have read numerous reports too that both retail and institutional money have almost no EM exposure. Any rotation would cause a huge jump in prices. I have stated before I think EM will lead the next bull market.
    6 Mar 2014, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I am keeping my long bond call options, as an insurance hedge if nothing else.
    6 Mar 2014, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    It's an insurance company that writes policies profitably for longer then the past decade, and has been able to invest the float at 20% returns, yea no premium needed......
    6 Mar 2014, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I dipped one toe in the water and added a starter position in (VALE) & (PBR) ..... I don't expect a "V" type recovery in these, more like a long but hopefully profitable road higher... We surely aren't buying at the top -- :)

     

    Back here -- Financials got the "bid" i was looking for

     

    I like (BAC) to break out (again) and move to 20 . may not sound like a big deal but at current price ($17.25) that's 15%

     

    (JPM) looks like it wants to challenge its old high around $59.50 - maybe mid 60's if the market cooperates.

     

    (GS) held support @160 moved up 6% to 171 and may challenge the 180 level..

     

    (LAZ) same situation as (GS) as far as the recent move.. -- looks like low to mid 50's from here..

     

    Just my .02
    6 Mar 2014, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    "I like (BAC) to break out (again) and move to 20 ."

     

    Let's hope. I've been holding this for YEARS and it's taken me about that long to DCA back to breakeven. If it hits $20 I'm divesting myself of my entire position for a 20% gain.
    6 Mar 2014, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    T:'

     

    You are a high yield/high value investor. I see high value, but not high yield with these stocks.

     

    Can you share the yields you have calculated for them?
    6 Mar 2014, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    Sometimes, even I am attracted to value issues with lower-than-normal (for me) yields, if I deem the value equation attractive enough. Here are approximate yields for the above:

     

    (PBR) 2.4%
    (VALE) 6.2%
    (SID) 12%
    (ABEV) 3.1%
    (AKO.A) 7.0%
    (OTCPK:OGZPY) 5.1%
    (MHNA) 8.2%
    (CH) 13.2%
    (SQM) 3.2%
    (VE) 4.8%
    6 Mar 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Thanks T.

     

    Are you calculating the yields yourself or using a specific website?
    6 Mar 2014, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14579) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    I use Etrade, but on international issues I also examine whether dividends are regular and how amounts may vary by time of year. Sometimes, the Etrdae displayed value needs some "windage."
    6 Mar 2014, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is very long. I'll set up another chapter later tonight.
    5 Mar 2014, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    (BRKB) is great...

     

    You will get 10% a year with it at current prices...
    5 Mar 2014, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair

     

    Didn't you use 15% return a year minimum? Though 10% is a nice return :).
    5 Mar 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair

     

    Have you found other retail you like along with (COH)? With spring coming, retail may start to move.
    5 Mar 2014, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    I also own (LULU) I think its one of the cheapest stocks on the market.

     

    The 15% is my goal, a hard one to achieve but we should always strive.
    6 Mar 2014, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Looking for a value play ? (MSFT) , stock broke out of a 13 yr base. back in Dec., corrected and is now back challenging the breakout level.. no resistance until 50 ...

     

    Fundamantals - cash machine --- 10% Free cash low yield.. 2.9% yield

     

    anyone believing that the market is too frothy and afraid of a correction -- this might be one to put away and sleep at night..

     

    just as (TSLA) screams froth , (MSFT) screams value --
    6 Mar 2014, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    (MSFT) is trash if you think you can forecast there earnings 5-10 years out you are much smarter than me...
    6 Mar 2014, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    -_-' Just got out of shorting (TSLA) I didn't lose any money but the amount I made is not worth the effort and the risk. (MSFT) I don't know... I heard its stock has been going sideways for a decade.
    6 Mar 2014, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Yair,

     

    I don't believe i said anything about what their earnings will be 5- 10 yrs out

     

    I was citing what I see today ...
    6 Mar 2014, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    How do you value a company today whose future is so unclear?
    6 Mar 2014, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    I value it at what i see today and adjust as the future becomes reality.

     

    IMO opinion no one can accurately forecast past 6- 12 months on any company's prospects. Whether they like the company or hate it.

     

    My view at present is also based on that technical breakout.. so someone somewhere sees the 'change" that may be for the positive.

     

    I note that the entire S & P broke out of a 13 yr base also , thus my opinion as to what triggered the current secular bull market we are in.

     

    these types of breakout after years of basing are rarely incorrect and are very powerful as we have seen with the S & P .

     

    So with (MSFT) it is a sign that the 'changes" that may be in their future are positive , just as the 'change' that many saw which propelled the S & P to where it is today at a time when its future was also so uncertain ..
    6 Mar 2014, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    I think there is much more uncertainty regarding (MSFT) then the entirety of U.S and now global business.

     

    I think the entire foundation of valuing a business is a guess of its future, if you can not estimate future performance how can you even attempt to value a company.

     

    I'm personally extremely averse terms like "secular bull" or "secular bear" or w/e is the talk, I see prices for businesses if its at the right price I'll buy it if its not, next... The only way I can say something is in the right price is if I can value it.

     

    If I was going to buy a farm and sell olive oil, does it really matter if the market is in a "secular bull" or "secular bear" "break out" no I just look at my return on investment, why does investing in a company mean I have to consider such nonsense?

     

    Either I paid less then the business is worth in the long term or I didn't and I made a mistake.
    6 Mar 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Yair,

     

    Fair enough although i don't agree with all of what u stated.. primarily because over 70% of all stocks traded will in fact follow the trend on a daily, weekly , monthly basis. You can have the best stock on the block and if you are in bear market , your stock will more than likely drift down with it.. 2008 - 2009 proved that quite well.

     

    so for me , i have to identify the underlying trend that i perceive the market to be in ...then go from there.. in my view that matters greatly ......

     

    recently you suggested that (COH) was a good buy at these levels,, I also see value there but as i mentioned the other day I didn't get back into that name just yet.. & in fact i do like the company...

     

    Now (COH) would seem to have a lot more uncertainty to their future with all of the competition , from (KORS) (KATE) , yet u seem to believe its a good buy here and if it goes down more u would buy more.. Apparently you have placed a value on them in light of the uncertainty.

     

    In my view i can make that argument for (MSFT) .. and I'm not inclined to dismiss the breakout I mentioned earlier, which I beleive wil come into play..
    Happy Investing !
    6 Mar 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Of course I can make mistakes! (KORS) is a great company, its harder for me to value at its current price I don't think I have a margin of saftey, I think (COH) has an extremely strong brand, I think the Chinese will eat it up, I think at the prices today 5 years out my worst case is 5% return could I be wrong SURE fashion is a fickle thing, but I love a business with a high ROIC and high margins.

     

    In my mind the only tech company I would own is google, I just don't see anyone usurping them, facebook, twitter, microsoft, apple, I couldn't even guess. I don't think its crazy for apple to trade just over net cash in 5 years, if they miss the boat.
    6 Mar 2014, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    Yair ,

     

    I wasn't implying that u are making a mistake , i only used (coh) as an example because of your recent comments..

     

    Best of Luck

     

    ;)
    6 Mar 2014, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I've piled into BRK.B at 119.5; expect major breakout here. Added to EM longs as well, EEM confirmed breakout
    6 Mar 2014, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Good luck. After our "conversation" late yesterday I got even more bullish and bought more stock in the pre-market @119.10. That's it for me now. At this point even the 120 calls in the March are working (bought yesterday @74 cents) and it's my largest position by far. Short term it's starting to look overbought and if the S&P corrects, brkb should as well. Even if the S&P doesn't correct, the spread between the two has moved so much that I wouldn't be surprised to see a minor pullback or stall. I'll be a buyer though on any correction back to the $118 area.
    6 Mar 2014, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    I just reread this and it seemed unclear. I haven't gotten out of any brkb - just taking a breather on adding unless it pulls back.
    6 Mar 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Genius!

     

    Take a look at certain EM markets. (GXG) (ech) (THD) (idx) in particular. Long those and a few others. EEM above 40 is significant.
    6 Mar 2014, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I didn't buy before leaving this morning because it was already up, thinking everything might drift lower. Now that it's at 121.35, up 2%, I was thinking I'd wait some more, see if the market comes down & it with it before it gets much higher. So glad to see your posts are along the same lines.
    6 Mar 2014, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Macro - EM has been too choppy to me and still has shown absolutely no relative strength expect for minor corrections. The eem traded up to the 200 dma today, then backed off. Obviously currency related. IF the US$ is stronger tomorrow (it looks like it was breaking down today, but needs follow through) watch the EM back off again.

     

    Fundamentally I'm not bearish to the em stocks due to low valuation but I could have made that same statement for the past few months and lost money. One thing the morons on tv neglect to say is one of the reasons the p/e's are so low is that interest rates are rising in most of the em and at fairly high levels.

     

    If the US$ continues to break down that should ease inflation in those countries and allow spot interest rates to weaken. I'm going to wait for confirmation the US$ is breaking down. If there's a change in the em trend it should last awhile and I don't mind being a bit late.
    6 Mar 2014, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Don't wait long; at a minimum buy some calls options which are cheap. Unless the S&P breaks down weakness in brk should be limited to a buck or two.
    6 Mar 2014, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    agree with that advice,

     

    at worst it may trade back to the 'breakout level, and hold there before it goes higher..

     

    Good Luck :)
    6 Mar 2014, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    DD, all I'll add is not all EM's created the same. Some really look good here, and no one is long on any allocation basis. If not now on a allocation basis, when? That being said, understand your patience.
    6 Mar 2014, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I know not all em's are created equal and I did look at the two etfs, Thailand and Colombia you mentioned; I didn't like the look of the relative charts to the S&P, but thd did look interesting relative to the eem so I might take a stab at that on a pullback.

     

    Note for stocks/etf's that are in a long downtrend I like to wait for confirmation on the weekly charts. I get in late, but have a better sucess rate.
    6 Mar 2014, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Which ones are you thinking of?

     

    I'm seeing $125 strike $27 March 22 which seems unlikely to bet on. $97 for April 19, $232 Jun 21, $365 Sept.

     

    For a $120 strike for March 22 it's $205, so shares need to go to $122.05 (plus commission). $310 April so need to go to $123.10. $470 June to go to $124.70.

     

    Thanks :).
    7 Mar 2014, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    Shorting (IWM) small against EM longs.
    6 Mar 2014, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    (BRK.B) ripping here on the breakout. 125 very quickly would'nt surprise me.
    6 Mar 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2607) | Send Message
     
    $125 wouldn't surprise me either, but with the daily rsi @77 it might need a bit of help from the S&P - or take a breather for a day or two before moving up from here. Barring a market meltdown I figure brkb could see $140 by the end of the year.
    6 Mar 2014, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (6545) | Send Message
     
    I agree because the price / book is so low, and sentiment is quite low (again) on WB and his companies.

     

    Nothing ever, ever new in the stock market. Truly is a fashion show.
    6 Mar 2014, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Market is feeling frothy at this point. Though economic data has been good... so maybe it's a match of expectation to prices?

     

    I'm hesitation to get into anything U.S., unless it's independently low - and not for fundamental reasons.

     

    Any thoughts?
    6 Mar 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6794) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    IMO ,, S & P is Back to being overbought on a short term basis,

     

    rotation into diff. sectors remains the trend,

     

    I.E , some of the 'froth" was taken out of the biotechs today after their great run (CELG) (http://bit.ly/NmmQ2w) & others were whacked.. .. some energy was also weak,,

     

    money went into financials , & industrials were also strong

     

    can also add ----transports which many said were weak and ready to take the entire market down , are within a whisker of a new all time high.. as they have attracted $ lately

     

    something to watch -- lets see if another brick in the bear story will turn to dust like the others that were tossed around recently .. (small caps not leading , impending head & shoulders) those have all evaporated into thin air .

     

    Investors ask what is propelling this market, i have mentioned many reasons ---

     

    I'll add this :

     

    Here's just two global econ. indicators that stopped going down and have turned UP ..

     

    anybody look at the 1 Yr Baltic freight index lately --

     

    http://bloom.bg/yrMkxw

     

    copper has also turned

     

    http://bit.ly/1f32nLi

     

    6 Mar 2014, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5785) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here's Chapter 10:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I've moving to a new chapter when it gets long for scrolling. If you're on a PDA and it's getting too long sooner than I'm switching, let me know :).
    6 Mar 2014, 05:38 PM Reply Like
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