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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #10 209 comments
    Mar 6, 2014 5:36 PM

    I 've set up this blog ...as community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!!

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #10. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog.

    Here's a link to the prior, #9: seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land...

    .

    Links

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great!:
    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long IWM, DIA, SPY, QQQ, TGT.

    Additional disclosure: and others

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (209)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Lots of good ideas posted in Chapter 9... so please post there or bring them forward to here :) !!

     

    I want to look more in options on (BKR/B) and the EMs.... so that's my focus. I'm also thinking were in overbought territory very short term... watching the indices was making me feel light headed! Finally (DIA) is back closer to it's higher point today.

     

    BTW, if you put symbols in brackets, it's easier for others to figure out what company you're referring to. Also, please like the comments you like!
    6 Mar, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Real estate reits... with retail down, and housing real estate finally recovering... could these be next...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    6 Mar, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF

     

    Have you seen this SA article on why dividend's matter? I haven't gotten through it all, but thought it would interest you: http://seekingalpha.co...
    6 Mar, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Dividends are meaningless they are actually negative is they force you to pay taxes you don't have to, (BRK) is the epitome of this.

     

    But...

     

    Dividends are important especially to someone who doesn't invest full time or simply doesn't have the time to research because it stops you from making mistakes, no one is going to lose a lot of money buying (KO) at today's prices, heck you even made like 2.5% a year if you foolishly bought them at the 1998 peak, but at these prices can you expect to profit much more than 5-7% a year from (KO) no and it doesn't matter what dividend they pay.

     

    The only reason a company should pay a dividend is if they cannot find a suitable way to reinvest that money at a high ROIC, if you don't have ideas give the money to me I'll find something to do with it.
    7 Mar, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    YG:

     

    What you say is a very classical view of dividends, i.e., being a return of underutilized capital. However, regardless of theory, numerous studies show that on a composite basis dividend-paying stocks outperform non-dividend payers over the long haul. Whether this is attributable to management's misallocation of capital in the non-dividend payers, I'll leave to other to speculate, but the reality remains.

     

    Furthermore, as one who specializes in high-yield value (and distress) investments, I can say that dividends (yield) have been a wonderful ingredient to my success. The reason for this, in my own experience, is very simple. When one buys a stock with no yield, the timing and price movement becomes critical because there is no other way to make money, aside from an increase in the share price. However, when one purchases shares, which one deems discounted in value, but also offering substantial yield, one doesn't need to be nearly as accurate in the assessment of the timing of price movements because one is paid handsomely to wait.

     

    The major benefit of this strategy is that it avoids a typical, and often critical, dilemma for many stock holders, i.e., what do do with "dead-money" stocks that are underwater and showing no immediate signs of recovery. With no dividends, the money is truly dead, absent price movement, but with out-sized dividends one can wait patiently, and either bank the dividends for use elsewhere or compound one's position.

     

    I can attest, personally, that this approach has benefited my investment behavior in numerous ways.
    7 Mar, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    The first problem with dividends is in many situations people are paying 15-25% to move money from one place to another.

     

    I agree with everything you say, psychologically dividends are very important, I find investing is a lot about fighting your own psychology.

     

    I also believe what you do is very different, I've read a lot of your comments, I think a lot of your strategy is finding issues which you see as value which also have a high yield, you don't pick a stock just because it offers a high yield.

     

    I'm guessing in 2009 you were a large net buyer of financial assets, I wonder how many people were doing the same.

     

    I think if other people attempted to follow your strategy they might be saddened by the results.

     

    What bothers me is a lot of people will buy any DG stock because well they "outperform" any they get sold on this idea that dividend stocks are the best no matter what price you pay.

     

    It just reminds me of all the people piling into mREITS in 2011, "but its paying me 12%......"
    7 Mar, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Tack
    Can you point me to the studies that show the better over all returns with dividend issues? I can google forever, but I'd like to find more researched info, than what turns up :).
    9 Mar, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    I'm finding dividends are hurting me psychologically, as well as helping. It's easier to hold when you know there's a dividend to offset a downturn. However, I'm finding I'm not looking as closely at whether I want to still keep the stock on it's other merits.

     

    All fixable - by buying stocks I want to hold for 10-15 years with or without dividends, that I believe to be very solid.
    9 Mar, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Off the top of my head, I cannot refer you. These are studies I had read over the years, not something I have readily at hand. I'd have to do the same research you might undertake to find them, now.
    9 Mar, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Dividends are never a substitute for making a poor stock selection, if it's ultimately downtrending with no recovery and/or dividend cuts. However, dividends are excellent to mitigate timing errors because they can provide nice returns when no price movement is occurring, or if it never occurs.

     

    Compounding of dividends is a powerful force. That "solid stock," you may think has growth potential, needs in fifteen years to increase in price by 175% to match the returns of a 7% yielding issue, and this increases to 218% for an 8% yield, all accomplished if the underlying issue price changes not at all.
    9 Mar, 06:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    T,
    Anyone new to investing should print your comment in bold letters and post next to their PC's !!

     

    "Dividends are never a substitute for making a poor stock selection, if it's ultimately downtrending with no recovery and/or dividend cuts. However, dividends are excellent to mitigate timing errors because they can provide nice returns when no price movement is occurring, or if it never occurs.""

     

    I can add-- As long as the reasons that an investor used to buy the stock in the first place are still intact, than one bad earnings report or market fluctuation isn't a reason to sell or develop high anxiety over it.

     

    I find that with my dividend stocks it takes away any short term anxiety that may develop when these developments take place..

     

    Putting it another way -- dividends cures a lot of ills..

     

    and to some degree, forces - patience - which is usually rewarded in the long run ...
    9 Mar, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Dividends compound and "Albert Einstein when asked what he considered to be the most powerful force in the universe answered: Compound interest!
    Qualified divvy tax rate is 15% Federal (not bad)
    Most people don't realize that dividend paying stocks are "loved and hated" at different times, as WS rotates the sectors, their bread and butter business.
    Finally, dividend stocks generally have a limited down side, in most cases.
    Regards,
    20 Mar, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Hi sinedo!

     

    We've moved to chapter 11, so I moved your post there -- see if it gets any bites :).

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I had no idea Einstein thought that!
    20 Mar, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    Sinedo,,

     

    welcome aboard, good commentary on the div. payers. ,

     

    we've moved the discussion all the way to chapter 12..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I asked the group earlier if they had a choice to pick 3 stocks, bonds , whatever to invest in on the assumption they have never been in the market and had a 10 yr time horizon , what would they be

     

    any thoughts ??

     

    see you in the new chapter..
    20 Mar, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Einstein is reputed to have said many things, but who knows? Young people usually don't have much opportunity to see how true it is, and I can say that I felt that same way, earlier in my life.
    What needs to be understood is that oversold dividend stocks usually offer capital gain opportunities too -the best of both worlds, but you have to look for them.
    Regards,
    21 Mar, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Another bs SA article, if you read the comments.

     

    There are some that try to debunk the guys that believe in buying individual stocks, ETFs, Reits, etc. to build a portfolio that increases in value & earns dividends. Fish, Carnevale, Knapp, Crosetti are the guys I like to learn from & follow.

     

    Then there are a few like Swedroe that want you to buy their mutual funds. Where you pay a price to own.

     

    Better to buy Vanguard funds, if you want mutual funds. Low cost and better than those high expense funds.

     

    I'll stick with my picks. (LMT) (NOC) (LVS) (MCK) (PTY) (MAIN) (SBUX) (TSCO) (DNKN) and the rest of my portfolio are doing better than I ever expected.
    6 Mar, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF

     

    The author Geoff Considine. He's rebutting Swedroe. He's supporting dividend stocks. He's trying to do it with data in a formal a comparison style study. He's not selling mutual funds.

     

    It's formal comparison through data of various methodologies. As I said, I haven't read through, but why would I post an article against dividend investing, for you to read? :).
    6 Mar, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    It's a waste of time…as you can see when you read the comments.

     

    that's why I call it bs ; )

     

    JMHO. Why waste time with Swedroe & his ilk? He's very insulting to DGI investors, in the comment section of his own articles. There's no way to really know, as the only people putting their portfolios out there are the DGI guys. When Swedroe tells them they are losing $, can't beat his chosen mutual funds, etc. it gets disgusting.

     

    Bob Wells just posted his latest. I like his style, he's really helping others by writing articles on how he constructed his portfolios, and why. Plus he's helpful in the comment section. Doesn't insult anyone. So rare on SA, right?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Mar, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Many dividend growth companies are currently overvalued. A non dividend paying company with similar prospects sometimes trades at a steep discount for no reason other than the dividend.

     

    Remember valuation is the only true measure of risk...
    7 Mar, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF

     

    As we talking about in emails, you're point is that Geoff Considine's effort to look at DGI from a research view isn't worthwhile, since it was Swedroe's comments that get him thinking about it. (What you'd consider to be a BS article.) I come from a different perspective.

     

    I still debating which is better for long term growth, DGI or small/mid cap growth companies. I'd like to see solid research to find an answer.

     

    For retiring DGI makes excellent sense. For a longer horizon where growth is the big goal, I'm not sure. I've seen solid research to show for instance that allocation of 100% in stocks doesn't add much growth at all, but does add much risk. It goes against instincts, so it made a big splash when it came out (back in 80's or 90's). I'd like to see the same for this debate. Considine's article pointed out some ways to start looking at that.

     

    I can see how DGIs been an excellent approach for you -- and that you've done very well financially with it!
    9 Mar, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    One big question at the moment, is whether DGI is overbought right now. ...Or will continue to grow & be a hot sector because retirees like it, even as ZIRP ends.

     

    Yair- your observation is that DGIs are overvalued?

     

    I'm thinking that as this recovery moves along, into looking like a actual recovery... that's when start up companies and inventions, and growth starts to take root again.

     

    Also that as ZIRP ends, retirees will move back to bonds & fixed income. Even now, every time there's a panic, there's movement back, even though you "just know" it will come back down again, after the crisis.

     

    Tack -

     

    your experience is that adding dividends & undervalued takes advantage of both, and made a big difference for your portfolio. Though you haven't been doing that through DGIs.
    9 Mar, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Time perspective is always critically important. Over time, sector behaviors average out. In the short term, any sector can become over or under bought. Yes, dividend-oriented stocks have had a marvelous run in the years 2009-2012, but 2013 saw the growth stocks substantially outperform dividend issues, as concerns arose about the future of interest rates, and tech stocks suddenly caught fire.

     

    Interestingly, currently, the most lagging sectors have been commodities and energy. One would think that if the market apprehended inflationary pressures that would push interest rates higher that these sectors would be favored, but that they aren't raises questions as to whether money will trend away from yield issues.

     

    I have learned not to "chase." I avoid trying to move toward "go-go" sectors and try to avoid guessing short-term market behaviors. I have learned that it's never wise to get overcompensated toward one sector or strategy, but to maintain balance at all times. Therefore, I try to keep a reasonable balance between common shares, preferreds and debt issues, which enforces a balance between growth and income. Within this framework I strive to identify individual issues and business sectors that appear to me to be undervalued and/or out of favor, and with these I look for above-average yielding issues. I have found that when I do this time works in my favor, and it's easier to be patient when issues are coughing up yields.

     

    I understand and respect DGI. For those who don't have a desire to manage their portfolios as assiduously as I may, and who have a long time horizon, it's probably a much more suitable "autopilot" approach than what I do.
    9 Mar, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    your comment
    "I still debating which is better for long term growth, DGI or small/mid cap growth companies. I'd like to see solid research to find an answer."

     

    You may have already realized this - there is no magic formula.. simply because what works for one , may not work for another , the emotional make up in every person is different.. and that is a huge factor..

     

    Each system/ approach has its own merits.. an u will find plenty of research to support/ deny the claims as to which is better.

     

    Simple math shows that Div Growth puts the odds in your favor. its a core strategy. From there u can develop other strategies around that to fit your personality , your emotional makeup .There is no reason why u can't develop a 'core' strategy and try to enhance it.. Some simply cant do that so "DGI only" is for them ..

     

    For me i use call writing , and employ "tradeable" positions that are usually 6- 9 months or so,( that is not set in stone ) around that 'core" to try to enhance my total return ..

     

    All of that is built around the type of market , I see at the time,, and of course that changes .. For me that doesn't mean this week or month , but the LT trend that is in place..

     

    Guess I am a "pro active" DGI ," Total return" investor - :)

     

    Bottom line -- once u find what works for you and is producing results - stick to it..

     

    and most of all, if it isn't working , be flexible , admit mistakes, review you plan and make it better..

     

    Happy Investing
    9 Mar, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack, FG

     

    Thanks!! I'm going to re-read a few times, and think some more before posting more questions and thoughts.

     

    Some very convincing and useful arguments and points made...!!
    10 Mar, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Impressive employment report - especially the big bump in the average wage of .4%.

     

    I still contend upside limited in stocks - although seasonal and charts likely point to 1900-1950 in the next couple months. This report should have a much bigger impact on interest rates. A couple days ago I bought call spreads in tbt. This morning I bought the tbt outright - my first purchase in years. Banks and consumer discretionary should lead today. The US$ - which looked like it was breaking down yesterday and before the jobs report turned around - watch the impact on EM given this report reinforces the taper.
    7 Mar, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    "Impressive employment report - especially the big bump in the average wage of .4%.

     

    This report should have a much bigger impact on interest rates."

     

    To the group discussion: do you agree with this? Many do not see above 3%. Interest rise fears might lead to interesting entry points in the RE sector.....
    7 Mar, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    astarr - when I wrote a "big bump" I didn't mean interest rates would soar. But the odds now of seeing the 10 year at 3% near term is much better than seeing them break below the 2.6% level we saw earlier this week.

     

    I think the world is too weak, US inflation too low and the US 10 year attractively priced relative to the rest of the world for them to have a major sell off. The ten year closed at 2.79% today, up from 2.74% yesterday. MAYBE at the end of this year the 10 year will get to 3.5% if world growth picks up.
    7 Mar, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » astarr

     

    I'd expect that when interest rates raising becomes a "topic" on CNBC, all the rate sensitive sectors will lead to good entry points.

     

    It may be part of why BDCs are still low. They were taken out of the indices. Started to recover, but since the Fed's very light mumbling about interest rates, they've just hung out low.
    9 Mar, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    The inverse of your TBT , the TLT, rallied to 109 and stopped on a dime just as it did Feb 3rd and is now looks to be headed lower.

     

    I agree with your assessment of TBT, it looks like you stepped into that at the right time..

     

    and the banks and retail money rotation looks to continue ... Many names in these two sectors are selling with market multiples lower than the S & P .

     

    It does look like we can rally to the 1900 area.

     

    more importantly I am watching to see if we get a new high in the transports and if that is followed by a new high in the Dow 30 -- it puts all indexes in full "bull " mode..
    7 Mar, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I know people look at the transports to give clues - but I think that's far less a "tell" than in the past. Deregulation of railroads and airlines and consolidation in airlines have made them far less cyclical than in the past. I don't know enough about trucking - but an index for them might be a better read than the transport sector as a whole.
    7 Mar, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    DD...

     

    Watch out with the (TBT) the decay is large, unless you get a strong move upwards you are fighting a losing battle.
    7 Mar, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    I have an indicator on the 'trucking" index which i point to in my latest blog comments , that i'll post tomorrow..
    7 Mar, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Yair - I'll keep an eye on that. Do you know of any other way to get short interest rates other than vial the tbt? I haven't tried it lately, but often trying to short something like the tlt is impossible because there's nothing available to borrow.
    7 Mar, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    There is a ton of borrow on the (TLT) showing for my broker, its fairly cheap too but you have to pay the dividend as well.

     

    I bought the (TBT) in 2012 I no longer hold any positions in it and even then the profits weren't so great.

     

    I'm fairly certain short rates will be at 2% in mid 2016 and the spreads will remain so long rates at 4-5% still... I can't find any good way to profit of this.

     

    Maybe there is a good way to profit in the futures market... I have no knowledge.

     

    I'd look into more depressed commodities in my portfolio as Tack suggested I personally like the oil majors.
    7 Mar, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Perhaps if I add to the short interest rate position I'll just do it via tlt. I don't mind paying the dividend considering if its a good position the etf will just fall to compensate.
    7 Mar, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD (I posted this in the last chapt last night, but it seems to have gotten lost)

     

    On (BRK/B) - Which options were you thinking of?

     

    I'm seeing $125 strike $27 March 22 which seems unlikely to bet on. $97 for April 19, $232 Jun 21, $365 Sept.

     

    For a $120 strike for March 22 it's $205, so shares need to go to $122.05 (plus commission). $310 April so need to go to $123.10. $470 June to go to $124.70.

     

    Thanks :).

     

    This morning it dipped to 121.5 but I missed it... not sure 122.4 is a good time to buy. If I miss this one, that happens...
    7 Mar, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking along the lines of the April 120 call.
    7 Mar, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    Not really into the BRK discussion, per se, although I sell a lot of other puts, but I thought I'd insert a general comment that might bear consideration:

     

    I don't find it very attractive to sell puts against high-priced shares for a few reasons: 1) the maximum return is absolutely fixed, and usually quite modest unless there's undue volatility at time of sale, 2) it's an awful long way down if there's any unforeseen bad news, and 3) a put sale on a high-priced share ties up lots of capital.
    7 Mar, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    On second thought, just buy the stock on a pullback. Options volatility is now elevated. When I first mentioned this Wednesday, options vol was lower. Perhaps next week you'll get the chance near $120, but given the surprising strength it could just go sideways for a few days between 121-123 and work off the overbought condition.

     

    If a stock is good, it rarely gives you a good opportunity to buy.
    7 Mar, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I've never look at the price of the stock, but the implied volatility of the options. But I agree with you on brkb - vol is much too low in the out months to short.
    7 Mar, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD, Tack

     

    I'm going to wait and see if there's a pullback. I have cash available, so it gives me the choice to hold longer term.

     

    DD- how did you spot this opportunity? Normally watch BRK/B? Others seem to have picked up on it, but they were a few days after you.

     

    "If a stock is good, it rarely gives you a good opportunity to buy. "
    That is a good point, to remember.

     

    Tack - DD was talking about buying calls, to bet on it going up. On puts, those are good points! I particularly was bothered by not being able to sell the shared that covered the put... so I'd want to be sure I wanted to hold the shares a very long time, in case a big correction happened.

     

    Welcome back from Whistler!! (I don't know where those comments are, so I'll add this here.)

     

    It was fun today around here, walking in 65-75deg weather, threw snow that hasn't melted yet.
    9 Mar, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    LMH - Great Berkshire earnings reported Friday night and Buffett's letter prompted me to look at brkb as an investment. After I noticed how cheap Berkshire's book value was relative to the S&P and noticed the brkb/sp relationship was at weekly chart support I decided to buy. I purchased a combination of stocks and options. Ordinarily I just buy the stock, but volatility on options was so low they provided a tremendous risk/reward in case the stock didn't move higher.
    I don't normally watch brkb.
    10 Mar, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Selling puts on (BRK.B) is winning strategy, I think selling long term leaps and reinvesting the proceeds is an almost free way to get a little leverage.

     

    I'm doing that with (FXI) I think at its depressed valuation its a bit safer than the long term puts on (BRK.B)
    7 Mar, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I looked at shorting the leaps but the volatility is so low there's no room for error. Since the forecasting ability for recessions is not much longer than six months, I don't like to sell leaps unless vol is reasonable. I'd rather stick with brk stock where I have liquidity.
    7 Mar, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    From Bespoke Group:

     

    Attached link is an updated look at where the S&P 500 and its ten sectors currently stand within their normal trading ranges.

     

    As shown, the S&P and six of ten sectors are currently in overbought territory, while just one sector -- Telecom -- is below its 50-day moving average.

     

    The Financial sector has seen the biggest move higher within its range over the last week, which is a good sign because the sector had been lagging recently.

     

    http://bit.ly/O2kaYg
    7 Mar, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    Todays update -- Sold a little BRKB at 122.6, have a large core position. Think its a major breakout that will hold.

     

    Long modest, several EM index ETF's. I really think most of the taper impact has been built in and the prices are very attractive. They are down today, thats fine. Emerging market bonds continue to hang in there tough. Short a small amount of (IWM) against this. Lots of cash if we pull back.

     

    I am short (HLF) puts against Ackman's presentation next week. Would like to buy calls too as think it will be a non event, but the premiums are ridiculous -- so I sold puts.

     

    Gold still looks extremely constructive considered the shellacking in bonds. Long (GDXJ)

     

    I have cut my bond option position way down, taking a loss. Strength has surprised me in the economy.
    7 Mar, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Since the open I took off a couple brkb March 120 calls over $3.00 - the rsi was near 80 at that point and I have a rule of thumb to take off a little bit whenever that level is hit. One of my better option trades considering I bought them Wednesday @ 74 cents.

     

    I also added a little bac lower on the day - not sure whether I'm comfortable with that.

     

    I am getting killed today on my healthcare reit - vtr. I understand higher interest rates are a negative, but it's not like that company has much debt, is expensive or that interest rates are very high. We're still talking sub 3%. I'm thinking of adding but will probably wait until Monday. Any thoughts?
    7 Mar, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    i don't follow VTR , but a quick look indicates that its a pretty solid outfit..

     

    Since u do use technicals, u can see it just got turned back at its 200 day MA..

     

    From a strictly technical view , i see it a bit lower , maybe to the 58.50 - 59 level . That's where it broke out back in Jan..

     

    So if its adding to a LT position and not a trade - adding anywhere slightly below where it is trading today looks ok..

     

    Just my .02 ..
    7 Mar, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the input
    7 Mar, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I don't know those. I did sell a few puts on a former winner of mine, (ICPT) they hammered it below 400 on the (IBB) selloff, still like the company.

     

    EM's likewise are weak but on non-existant volume compared to yesterdays upside.
    7 Mar, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    a lot of the biotechs I follow are being hammered as well (CELG) (GLD) , (CLDX) ,etc..

     

    I'm wondering if some of these are getting into buy range .. (CELG) just dropped to its 200 day MA an area that has provided support in the past.... that's a 14% correction from its recent high ..
    7 Mar, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    Data released by the Federal Reserve show that the net worth of U.S. households increased by a staggering $9.8 trillion last year, or by almost 14%.

     

    The gains in recent years have come from increased holdings of financial assets (mainly equities, bonds, which have grown by a total of $21 trillion from their 2009 lows)

     

    A chart from Scott Grannis

     

    http://bit.ly/1ihURek

     

    The markets have been awfully good to many .. ;)
    7 Mar, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I continue to attempt to listen to the market.

     

    Look at the close in the SPX. Yes, high PE stuff sold off a little, but it was simply more rotation. Look at the action -- strong jobs report, bond selloff, very overbought market, Russia situation simmering, and weekend risk.

     

    And we barely back off at all. This is no market to be short of. We have further to run, absent a total bond market collapse or something.
    7 Mar, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Any thoughts on (LINE)?

     

    Has it turned into a falling knife? I'm down 8%. It's crossed below 50day MA. It's above 100day MA. It missed earnings a few days ago. It had been on a steady climb, without losing when the S&P dipped this year.
    7 Mar, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I apologize, again. I'm right with you riding (LNCO) into the Abyss. I may/may not get out at a 10% loss.

     

    Apparently I need to be reminded from time to time to only invest in what I know.
    7 Mar, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    (LINE) may correct to the 200 day MA,
    another $1 from here..

     

    There was decent news on the conf call.

     

    I own and for now its sit back and collect the monthly div. check..

     

    It will come back.. and then some..

     

    IMo the distribution is very safe.. the acct'g issues Mac mentions have been talked about for months now , that's what dropped the stock to 22, last fall when i added more .. research the LINE articles here on SA , I was vocal then about LINE being a solid investment and feel the same way now..
    7 Mar, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    That 200 day MA may be the turn around. It's approached and backed off it before, and not dropped through it before. (I meant 200 day, not 100 in my post.)

     

    Do you know what the huge drop in late 2012 was about? It did very well till then, and climbed nicely afterward. If went down with the Jan dip, but hasn't recovered with everything else.
    9 Mar, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,
    that drop was due to a hedge fund and others highlighting what they believed to be accounting issues with (LINE) and their arguments that the proposed deal with Berry wasn't going to happen .. and there are many articles here on SA that spoke to those issues..

     

    In my view , those allegations have proved to be false, it was no coincidence that the same hedge fund had a huge short position in the stock went they broke 'their" story --

     

    The Berry purchase did indeed go thru, the distribution is now paid monthly and is solid. I'll also add that these false allegations triggered an SEC inquiry, which when finally completed showed no accounting Issues present..

     

    I had a decent position in (LINE) and also had client money there..
    When the story broke - i gathered all research i could get my hands on-- it was all positive...

     

    Not satisfied , a few of my assoc. and I hired our own independent research guy ..

     

    The findings contradicted the allegations.. I stated that here on SA in many rebuttal comments , but was
    roundly criticized.. So be it.. that solidified my belief in the research.. :)

     

    We all bought more in the 21- 22 range and have never looked back..
    9 Mar, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    If that is the case and they did have a short position when they wrote their story is there anything illegal with this? Sounds like trumped up charges to manipulate the stock. If not it just further adds to the adage that the market is just legalized gambling and is stacked against the little guy.
    9 Mar, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    Cwinn,

     

    In my view , all of the points u stated are correct..
    The group was hedgeeye , they made their money and moved on, there is nothing illegal since they stated their "opinion' and the short position was in fact disclosed in their corp filingsand public presentation..

     

    Plenty who bought in the 30's , sold at the bottom when they couldn't take it any more , believing the dist. would be cut and so forth. Only to find the stock right back in the 30's and the dist. intact. I understand

     

    When Money is involved many have 'agendas" . But once that short position was disclosed and made public, it was pretty clear what their intent was and if one owned the stock at the very least it should have raised an eyebrow, it smelled like a can of sardines.
    I noted at the time how vocal they were , Until the company changed their format from a quarterly payout to a monthly distribution.. Since the 'shorts" have to pay the div.., they then got squeezed a bit since it was now a monthly bill instead of a quarterly , once announced the shorts slowly covered..
    Also of note they initiated their position and made their " public "presentation right after a distribution was paid. All of these are not coincidental , in fact other than the price going down this was downright comical to watch unfold.. But there were warnings sign that this wasnt real and their was plenty of "public" research that showed just the opposite.
    Unfortunately it's a 'back eye' , it shows how emotion and in this case "fear' plays a part and why many distrust the market.. I understand that .

     

    But when asked about the market and the 'casino" connation , i usually reply that If you do your homework you will always be able to find risk/rewards that are skewed in your favor.
    Their story was a can of sardines..
    9 Mar, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Was the same strategy used Kinder Morgan recently? A negative Barrons article has sent the stock sliding.
    9 Mar, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    astarr,

     

    i dont follow kinder , but from what i read about what is going on there , it sure seems so..
    9 Mar, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    There's a drop in 2013 from accounting. The drop in 2012 looks different and deeper (and didn't line up with an SnP drop). Unless I'm completely confused while looking (which is possible), that's what I saw. So it's the earlier drop that I didn't see an explanation.

     

    "independent research guy" - that's something! I can see why you're confident, and know the stock.

     

    I just thought it fun that today with all the downs, and it was down 2% earlier -- but turned green for a while.
    10 Mar, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - CWinn

     

    IMHO, it's kind of like gambling... except you're not buying a random chance to see a card. You're buying a bit of a company to keep over the long term of growth. It has actual earnings value.

     

    The small term maneuver's like this, don't have much impact on the long term.

     

    Also when buying, you have more info to work with than pure random. There's financial data to calculate from. Also there's knowing that manipulations happen, which is less random than a card draw.

     

    There is a lot stacked against the little guy, no doubt. Pre-releases of market moving news to big players is legal. A little guy can't even easily get streams of news in real time without the paid off (essentially bribed) pre-releases. The computers also stack against the little guy with flashes, and skimming.
    11 Mar, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    http://on.mktw.net/1ik...

     

    I love to see this as a contrarian. Makes me go wild on the buy side. I am long six EM's, 5 in Asia and Columbia. I sold chile today -- a bit worried about mining sector, and chile is mining. Strong us Data -- worried gold might implode. Sold Turkey as well, too vunerable on the currency side. Absolutely love SE Asia here though. That's where the growth is, and everyone hates EM!
    7 Mar, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    M-

     

    How are you getting exposure in em's? Are you trading individual stocks, etf's? Thanks.
    7 Mar, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I don't know line but there is controversy on their accounting. I'd research it more if I were you.
    7 Mar, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - (LINE)

     

    The ex-div date was yesterday. Distribution date is 13th. Can I still get the div if I sell today? That may be why the big sell off today.
    7 Mar, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    If you held on ex-div (ie bought the day before at minimum), you get it. You can even sell ON ex-div, and still get the div, provided you bought the day before at the minimum.
    7 Mar, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    You can hold it a day and collect the divy, but you won't get the benefit of the dividend tax rate, which depending on your bracket may hurt you. In order to qualify for the dividend tax rate the position has to be held for 30 days - either before, after or during.
    7 Mar, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Oh wow, no one mentioned that in their explanations when I looked it up... including Investopedia's articles.
    7 Mar, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    I have never sold a dividend paying stock in less than 30 days of purchase... Exactly how would that be treated differently at tax time, in regards to a 1099-DIV form?
    7 Mar, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - JBT, I've looked it up.

     

    "Dividends are taxed either as ordinary income or as qualified dividends. In order to be taxed as a qualified dividend, the investor "must have held the stock for more than 60 days during the 121-day period that begins 60 days before the ex-dividend date," as the IRS explains in Publication 550. "
    http://abt.cm/IMeihS

     

    More -- it has to be held unhedged, and some prefers are 90 days:
    http://bit.ly/1n4AfMR

     

    --
    And fun IRS reading:

     

    ==> 1099-div form instructions:
    http://1.usa.gov/1n4AdEW
    ==> Pub 17 on qualified divs:
    http://1.usa.gov/1n4AdEY
    ==> Pub 505: (I don't see qualified divs a table of contents search, even though it's the pub the other site references.)
    http://1.usa.gov/1n4AdF0
    8 Mar, 03:03 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Ok, so to answer my own question, the divs would only appear in box 1a, not in box 1b.

     

    Hmmm... I wonder how that works out if your effective tax rate is below the 15% qualified dividend rate... I mean, if not held long enough, they'd be taxed as ordinary income, right?
    8 Mar, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I don't know. Perhaps mlp's are treated differently, but with regular stock there is a holding period required to qualify for the dividend tax rate. It may not be 30 days however, but longer. Check with an accountant. Hubby isn't here and he does our taxes or I'd ask him.
    8 Mar, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    (LINE) is an MLP and therefore there are no dividends , they pay distributions which are reported on Sch K not a 1099 ..
    8 Mar, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG, thanks
    8 Mar, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Thanks! Fear had said that accounting issue was during the summer and dismissed by the SEC. So probably now it's got more to do with their acquisition of "Berry" for business growth and the earnings miss.
    9 Mar, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    ETF's. Also bought the Ukraine telecom, (mbt).
    7 Mar, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I think you are right on the money that EMs are unloved right now, and will eventually get rotated into again.

     

    I haven't been able to figure out why the tapering has such a larger effect on EM, apparently Asian in particular, than it does on the US..
    9 Mar, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    My ramblings for this week:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Happy investing
    8 Mar, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    I read it (hope you're right about energy/infrastructure). And my monthly is coming on:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Mar, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - User7

     

    Would you like to post here, your picks under consideration on your blog & a bit of why? The link to the blog is then good for getting details...
    11 Mar, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    Hello again! Only thing different is that TPZ at this point in time would be my first pick - market price continues to go down and the nav is okay.

     

    Kind of a bet on whether Tortoise would do things for their other funds to make them more shareholder friendly, but that's why I try to buy funds with a sustainable yield I can live with in the first place.
    11 Mar, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Was it me -- I felt a shift in mood on Friday? For the first time in a while, I could see a downturn mood possible to come on again... just waiting for an excuse to do the dipping.
    9 Mar, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    It was you.

     

    Friday was just typical Ukraine weekend nervousness. Noise.
    9 Mar, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    This morning I initiated small positions in aks, x and vale on the weakness due to the China weekend data. It could simply be due to the fact Chinese New Year was much earlier this year. Earnings estimates for aks and x have been coming up lately. Vale is very cheap - not always a good reason in the short term to buy but I figured the market won't ring the bell at the bottom. I'm not going to give these much latitude and will stop myself out down a few percent - but will add if they hold support and start to rally.
    10 Mar, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I'm waiting until this afternoon to see how far (VALE) drops but intend to add to my position. (VALE) with its 6.77 % dividend is an excellent long term hold, if you get it cheap.
    10 Mar, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    BSK - Don't count on that dividend. Iron ore prices are expected to fall over the next year and unless volumes pick up vale may not be able to pay it.

     

    This was an opening position for me but if I was already long I wouldn't add except perhaps to do an options spread or buy calls. You can buy the April 13 call and sell the April 15 call for about 38 cents or buy the April call outright @ 46 cents. Technically it looks like vale is breaking down - we'll see if it can close above the April low of 12.69.

     

    The reason I bought was because it's cheap on a long term basis and was close to both the January and last July lows, so I don't have much risk. But I'm not particularly bullish in the short term because of the falling iron or prices. And I'll probably get out of the position if it trades below 12.50. Just because it looks cheap on a long term basis doesn't mean it can't go a fair bit lower.
    10 Mar, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    BTW - The best advice anyone ever gave me was to never add to a losing position in a cyclical stock. Adding to a JNJ or KO is fine, but cyclical stocks are tricky. Often they are well ahead of major weakness in the economy or their sector.

     

    In general the best traders like to add on strength, not weakness. If fact if I was adhering to the ideas one should always buy strength, I shouldn't have bought those stocks today. But I figure an initial small position against chart support isn't unreasonable.
    10 Mar, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    good advice DD. If it looks like another (PBR) nightmare, I'm out. Brazil has some big problems.

     

    On CNBC, Michelle Cabuso Cabrerra just reported that in China, copper was used as collateral on some bond issues. Now that one bond issue has been allowed to fail, this may cause additional less demand for copper since it won't be needed as much for bond offering deals.

     

    Then there are already huge stockpiles of copper in warehouses….looks like the need for copper is waning.
    10 Mar, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    "never add to a losing position in a cyclical stock" "Often they are well ahead of major weakness in the economy or their sector."

     

    That's going in my folder of very helpful ideas!! (Literally I've been keeping a folder of the better info that I've observed.)

     

    Congrats on (BRK/B) so far! I never did get it on a dip, & it's been taking off ever since the last low point.

     

    11 Mar, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    News on China, exports decline & copper declines

     

    http://cnb.cx/1nACZ1u
    10 Mar, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    For a high discount/higher yield strategy, VALE and other Brazilian stocks are on the watch list.

     

    Long Vale, Sid
    10 Mar, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - "China to allow private banks, liberalize deposit rates"

     

    http://bit.ly/1hDMPwV
    The trial is part of China's strategy to increase the role of the markets as it looks to carry out major economic reform. In another measure, the People's Bank of China plans to liberalize deposit rates in one to two years

     

    --
    How is China effecting EM & Asia... and the US? Any thoughts?
    11 Mar, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - The Klarman article is back, and Bogle has responded.

     

    "This is "risky territory," and Klarman is "heck of a lot smarter than I am," Bogle said. "

     

    While famed investor Seth Klarman has recently turned bearish, warning of a potentially catastrophic asset price bubble, Bogle thinks investors will be better off steeling their nerves and diversifying, rather than trying to time the market. "

     

    http://cnb.cx/1g4mhB0
    11 Mar, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    The "headlines' that many wish to make with these types of warnings isn't anything that any one that has paid attention to the markets isn't already aware of..

     

    S & p up over 150% from the bottom and over 30% in a year.. No market goes up in a straight line, now the question becomes whether the market will pause , correct and regroup or is this the major top that some believe we are at..

     

    The data points I track and have mentioned here on SA do Not suggest a MAJOR top here, so I am positioned with that as my backdrop..

     

    Bogle has been around for a long time and his "diversified market timing" approach should be heeded....

     

    CAUTION , of course ----- FEAR , not yet..
    11 Mar, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    I'm not thinking major top at all. Not sure Klarman is either? However, I have money to put in... so if we're at a correction, it'd be great to get in on it.

     

    I've been thinking if this is a point to take profits and lighten up... then it's also a point not to jump in with everything I have.
    11 Mar, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Is (M) Macy's a good stock to buy in the retail sector?

     

    http://bit.ly/1g4mZhJ
    It's high, not on a dip. But consistently doing better than others in mid-level retail...
    11 Mar, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I don't track (M) , so not aware of the fundamentals,,, but would be wary getting in at all time highs, given the facts of what has been discussed in the way of caution regarding the present market environment. At some point you can probably buy that on 10-15% cheaper ...

     

    At this point in time in exercising caution ,,I will look for a special situation , that may be a turnaround or a company with a catalyst before i add anything here..

     

    (ALR),(EBAY) (LAZ) come to mind.. and in retail I mentioned (BBBY), although that one has rallied nicely off of the bottom and I wouldn't chase it here.. In fact if anyone got in at the lows , (63) it may be wise to turn a quick profit @69

     

    Happy investing
    11 Mar, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    (M) is probably one of the best retailers, I like (KSS) as well, they are still both trash.
    11 Mar, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair

     

    Can you explain? You like (COH) though, so it's not retail itself. Thanks!
    11 Mar, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    YG:

     

    I don't invest in retailers, but, as I see it being discussed, I'll offer one observation:

     

    One must decide where we are in the economic cycle to ascertain what retailer values look attractive. In rising economies and markets, the upscale retailers always outperform the low-end merchants, as people "upgrade." The reverse is true in the opposite direction.

     

    So, a belief in where the economy may be headed is an important consideration to decide whether the attractive issues are the Macy's, Nordstrom's, Coach's, etc. of the world, or whether Walmart, Target, Dollar Stores, etc. offer the more compelling values.
    11 Mar, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Both Macys & Kohls have low PE ratios, so they have a lot of room to go higher. That's if you believe that the economy is doing better.

     

    GDP estimates were raised for 3rd & 4th Q to 3 %. As long as employment numbers climb & unemployment continues to fall then top notch retailers like Macys & Kohls will continue to do well.
    11 Mar, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    Good point & observation!

     

    That's a good way to look at the sector, at a macro level...

     

    I'm a little baffled about where the economy is going at the moment. But that's another topic :)
    11 Mar, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Caution in the current environment has me stopped. So thanks for the response on (M). It's one that I suspect is a "good stock" so won't easily have a good entrance point on a story (unless it's unexpected)... but the macro environment is high.

     

    The EMs may be good options...

     

    (LINE) was up 1.6 yesterday, but down again 3% today. I'm not seeing why yet. A shakedown effort? It's completely diverged from the sector trend. I'm holding for longer term, but I'd like to learn here.
    11 Mar, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I didn't see any 'news' on (LINE) today , i can add that many of the E & P oils are also selling off after their big runs..
    11 Mar, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Apparently Cramer sold out of (LINE) today and recommended others follow. And research shows he's moves are good contrarian indicators... (I can only find Cramer selling LINE from a few days ago, not today.)

     

    Wonder if very short term trading on Cramer's recommendations works? He seems to move the market.

     

    Macrotrader --

     

    have you considered trying it -- any sense of whether it'd work?
    11 Mar, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Lomah, there are still a few stocks out there with low PE ratios but positive outlook for earnings. Coach (COH) is one, and IBM is another. I would be very careful buying anything that has a high PE ratio, unless it is a hyper growth stock with stellar earnings.

     

    (GOOG) on a pull back is a good bet. Be patient, we will likely see the market fall more until the next earnings start to come in, which will be April. Also very likely that we will see the market dip even more, because 1st Q earnings for some companies aren't going to be so great.

     

    (BA) Boeing is getting cheap here. So is (BGS).

     

    I would keep plenty of cash ready for the next big dip, which I am expecting could be in April. I always keep cash on hand, for emergencies and unexpected market dips.

     

    I would divide up the cash into 12 parts, then deploy monthly on dips. Maybe try finding some fixed income assets so that you feel more secure about investing. Start out with small positions that you can add to, with the next dip.

     

    Another strategy is to only put 2% of your portfolio in any single investment. Some of my positions are even less than that.

     

    Two stocks that you could buy today because they are bargain priced in oil, especially (XOM) & (COP).
    11 Mar, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Something that could make April less of a pull back is the GDP estimates have been raised for 3rd & 4th Q….to 3 %. So even if 1st Q earnings are bad, if the company reports that they are estimating things to get better for the rest of the year, that will soften the dip.

     

    I'm pretty much fully invested right now, only buying on dips. Great day for McDonalds (MCD) and Starbucks too, as they went up nicely today.

     

    Started small initial positions in (WYN) and (AZO). These 2 are growing, excellent companies.
    11 Mar, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -BSF

     

    Lots of good advice and ideas... thanks for posting them :).

     

    I'm putting .5% into each position. It's small %, but since I'm not the experienced at individual picking, it seems good. Most of the money is in ETFs till I divest it into stocks.
    13 Mar, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF

     

    Good point that the GDP estimates could keep things floating. Also a random Fed comment can do it.

     

    Still like you said I'd like to keep cash for the next big dip. Maybe for a change... I'll figure out to get in as it recovers...

     

    I'm not feeling insecure about investing. I'm not seeing much as cheap. Mostly too, what I went into individually had negative news shortly after (BDCs, LINE, even MU was up then down). So I'm trying to learn more before going in and stick to ETFs where needed. If things were moderate or cheap, it'd be easy to randomly buy and see how it goes. It takes time to research, especially when you're new to the industry, & that's been hard to find.
    13 Mar, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    Been off flying my airplane. Some things are better than trading.

     

    My advice. Fade everything Cramer says, actually all of CNBC.

     

    I'm loving my BRKB here, straight up.

     

    Loving how my EM's responded to both weak US markets and weak china data. Flat to higher for Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand. Really good action.

     

    No changes last few days.
    11 Mar, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    "Some things are better than trading." True, true :)!!

     

    So from up there, did you look down and see anything to make things clear down here?

     

    What kind of planes do you like to fly?

     

    EMs still looking good after today?
    12 Mar, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I added to (MBT) today -- Ukrainian Telecom. Buy it and forget it for a year or so. Added to (THD) and (VNM). Unless you think the Asian economies are going to disappear, you buy this kind of Chinese anxiety, not sell. These markets are dirt cheap and hated. Doesn't get better for the contrarian.

     

    Could be China's 2009 bottom here.
    13 Mar, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Copper hit a 4 year low; up a penny today. (VALE) bounced up a little. All eyes on China, watching their economy for signs of more slowing.

     

    Bought a couple more shares of (GOOG) when it went below 1200.

     

    By the end of this year, market will be higher. Keep buying the dips.
    12 Mar, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Skyworks (SWKS) up strong today; added a little to my position this am. This is a company making money & expected to keep growing earnings.
    12 Mar, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Nasdaq is leading today by a lot...
    12 Mar, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    I'm in total "wait & see" mode -- watching the chinese markets from a technical standpoint to see if they will hold support levels..

     

    Our markets are fixated on China..
    12 Mar, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Wonder if they're fixated on feeling a little nervous about the moves up and new highs over the last few weeks... and looking to China for an excuse?
    12 Mar, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    (NDLS) is on tear today, up over 6%. Wow!
    12 Mar, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Could be that investors all over the world are putting their money into US markets. Not a bad idea.

     

    Putting some money in solid tech companies like (GOOG) and some new ones (FB) (SWKS) (WDAY) (SCTY) (TSLA)

     

    I've been slowly buying shares during this latest dip. Betting on tech continuing to outperform.
    12 Mar, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Excuse me if I seem to be a little exuberant today, could be a sugar high. (KKD) just reported earnings…up over $2 after hours. yahoo!

     

    They say "buy what you know." (BUD) (STZ) (DNKN) (KKD) (SBUX) all fit that criteria ; D
    12 Mar, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    True to buy what you understand. One problem with buy what you know, is you wind up with a lot of consumer products :).
    12 Mar, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF - Enthusiasm's good!

     

    I'm not feeling well (virus stuff)... so I'm low key last couple days. Curious what everyone else is thinking about the markets and China & EM...

     

    My (LINE) is still depressing. Down another 2.5% today. Feels like time to sell and blood in the streets, so I'm hoping that's near the bottom point...
    12 Mar, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    feel better L. Have you checked what is on SA about (LINE)? There could be some breaking news, or an article that might shed light on why it's falling. Also if anyone has an opinion on if it's a buy at this point.
    12 Mar, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    here's an article that says (LINN) overpaid for a recent acquisition; this could explain the dip.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    (KMP) is down too but according to this article, you should rotate out of (LINN) and into (KMP). At least for 2014, (LINN) will not go up until some positive earnings or other news happens. Cramer seems to think it's not worth waiting.

     

    I own (KMP) and have lost about $1000….not planning to sell but waiting for the stock to come back while I collect the dividend. So you might be better off selling (LINN) and catching the upswing in (KMP).
    12 Mar, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF on (LINE)

     

    I've been reading the articles & their website.. totally conflicting views from it's underperforming it's peers, to "good management, dividend is secure, time to buy." Nothing's really explained why it's falling like a rock, rather than bottoming and hanging for a while, the way others have done on bad news. They missed the last earnings estimates by quit a bit and lower 2014 guidance.

     

    It's not certain that they overpaid for Berry. That may be the bears coming out to play. Crammer's advice is likely part of the last few day's drop. Someone posted his track record with this stock in a very funny post... he bought high and sold low, at least two times... following his advice would make you broke... but probably benefit some buddy of his.

     

    (KMP) may be better long term? I don't know the industry well enough to tell. (LINE) has a better dividend now. It'll take (KMP) to catch up. Apparently oil prices, etc, changed recently which effects the sector.

     

    I'm inclined to invest for the long term. Still, if it's headed down more, I could sell and buy back in when it finally bottoms. Do you think (KMP) is about to recover very soon? What about others in the sector as better choices?
    12 Mar, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF, FG

     

    Very end of day in heavy volume someone bought into (LINE). Brought it from 2.15% down to .83%. (Not (LNCO) though.)

     

    The drops are early in the day on heavily volume. So it's big buyer moving in and out. Finally today, someone went on a buying spree!

     

    So this may be near the bottom, where some buying support comes in. It's still below 200 day MA. After reading enough comments... I didn't see a fundamental change, so settled in for a wait.
    13 Mar, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I noticed that (LINE) was off over a dollar when the market was flat, as the market sold off , it actually improved.. "maybe " a sign that the selling is done in that name.. the sell off in oil hasn't helped this situation either..

     

    either way , i'm still in for the LT.. I believe the distribution is covered and safe..
    13 Mar, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - (LINE)s on a tear upward today...

     

    Bet it bounces back down before finally starting a recovery. (KMP) is up nicely too, guess oil is doing better today. (Then again, LINE was up one day last week before another 5% drop.)

     

    (MU) seems like a trader's dream. It was down 1%, now it's green. Lots of movement during the days.
    14 Mar, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Concrete evidence of SA being used for pump & dump -- Makes you want to be sure to follow an author for a while before assessing their articles.

     

    "SA contributor Richard Pearson publishes his investigation into Galena (GALE -6.2%) and CytRx's (CYTR -8.8%) relationship with The Dream Team Group."

     

    After he was offered to write SA articles for $300 as long as Dream Team Group had editing rights, and he didn't disclosure the payment!!

     

    "He concludes that management has had a central role in reviewing and editing numerous bullish articles published on financial websites under various aliases." (SA then removed a number of articles.)
    http://bit.ly/1kOIPOc

     

    The author is short the stock, and tends to write negative articles. So is he trust-able?

     

    -
    This kind of manipulation on the internet of retail investors seems common. Anyone have favorite ways to spot the articles... and commentors?
    13 Mar, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    I know I've pretty much quit reading "list of five stocks to buy now" or sell type articles. I also avoid articles where the author is listed as a group or associates (a couple of exceptions where the authors changed their name to their company).

     

    Comments with little thought to them and/or grammar that would make Snoop Dogg cringe tend to be a give away (indicates someone is spamming instead of giving any thought to what they're saying).

     

    I also tend to avoid authors who never respond to comments. Tend to be reprints from other websites.

     

    Good on that author for pointing it out and good for SA for printing the article.
    13 Mar, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    Now after having read that article and then the commentary, it reminds me a bit of the LINE stuff over the summer that I only vaguely followed because I had no interest in it one way or the other (edit - F&G's favorite author just made the last comment that I read that should bring back memories about the LINE debates :) .

     

    Whole lot of accusations. Notice the comment stream and how many folks have very few comments in their history. Quite a few contributors as well either supporting or debunking the author (makes you wonder how many of them are paid shills).

     

    It's all black and white emotion. Author has not replied at this time to any of the comments. About half the comments call him out for being short. About half congratulate him on his awesome investigation (which lacks the prose of say, Hunter S. Thompson).

     

    I saw one comment amongst the sixty or so I read that stated that they read his documentation and it indicated that the management was careful to tone things down whilst editing. I guess that commentor analyzed the edits pretty fast because his comment that he read them was seven minutes after his initial comment that the article was meaningless without information.

     

    Only honest comment I've seen so far is one guy that said he sold his shares this morning and is still in shock and won't have anything to do with the company one way or another.

     

    This type of stuff is why I decided to invest and not trade. This is why I go for boring returns and why I prefer fairly low-liquidity investments. I'd rather deal with things that I can actually value and I'd rather compete with retail investors instead of some half-assed marketing conspiracy between longs/shorts/management.
    13 Mar, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,
    Before I "believe' any author , i go back and check his/her articles , see if they may have a bias. and most important , look at their track record.. that goes for the everyday users here also..

     

    I have mentioned this a few times before - I don't follow or listen to advice form anyone that has had the 'story' wrong..
    13 Mar, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    a fake edit as I still don't trust the new system:

     

    I would be happy to be somebody's paid shill. PM me, but to show me the money!
    13 Mar, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    "that goes for the everyday users here also.."

     

    Et tu, Brute? :)

     

    Check this out - the article was #1 on the home page and now is not. I would think that this means temporary hysteria for a particular stock. Instead of some awesome pending SEC investigation and journalism.

     

    I reneg on my previous comment for "good on SA". And the author. All hype. Frankly, I'm at the point where I don't trust anyone.

     

    Except certain anonymous internet buddies. And maybe the Woman.
    13 Mar, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - User7

     

    My thought too -- so how do I get paid to post?? On political sites, I've been accused of it (and never paid by anyone). There's a lot of general social implications here, if the internet has paid shills.

     

    The (LINE) stuff now, is feeling a bit off too. One guy is posting negatives that are obviously motivated, while saying he sold out in 2010. Others too, are similar themes, and a bit over the top.

     

    - FG

     

    Track record is the way to check. I've appreciated that you've been posting yours. Everyone will be wrong or poor timing once in a while, but the overall record can say a lot.

     

    Have you made any observations on the author of the expose? I'd never seen him before.
    13 Mar, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - U7

     

    "Except certain anonymous internet buddies. And maybe the Woman."

     

    Well your significant other... that's up to you :). On internet, it's actually been helpful to see some of the debates/arguments... you can get a feel for who's genuine in the process...
    13 Mar, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » User7

     

    I like your analysis of the comments. The one guy who sold based on the article, stood out -- but made me worry about him if that's all it took to make a decision :). Several people have asked this one negative guy if he's shorting & he says no... but dawns on me, I'm going to ask if he's getting paid.
    13 Mar, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I added to (MBT) today -- Ukrainian Telecom. Buy it and forget it for a year or so. Added to (THD) and (VNM). Unless you think the Asian economies are going to disappear, you buy this kind of Chinese anxiety, not sell. These markets are dirt cheap and hated. Doesn't get better for the contrarian.

     

    Could be China's 2009 bottom here...
    13 Mar, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    (THD) is in a decent sized correction -- I assume from the political problems. Do you think they are adequately resolved?

     

    (VNM) has come up already by quite a bit. Why pick now to get in?

     

    Curious why you picked a Marketvectors for (THD) and an ishares for (VNM)?

     

    I've been eyeing (THD) for a while... but hadn't looked at (VNM).
    13 Mar, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    I just got home -- what's today's downturn about? China's slowdown according to data? Or MW is saying the Fischer hearing said taper would continue..

     

    Any opinions?
    13 Mar, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,
    I'm not buying into any of the excuse du jour stuff..

     

    S & p was overbought in the short term and any hint of a problem -- and the market sold off.

     

    Let's see what tomorrow brings ;)
    13 Mar, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Crimea vote over the weekend. Is there much doubt about tomorrow?
    13 Mar, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack, FG

     

    Oh Crimea, is that what it is! Then my instinct was correct to not rush in and buy as it approached 4pm... and wait till tomorrow.

     

    Generally too, it feels to me like that overbought was weighing on investors... and it was bound to slip some down days in here.
    13 Mar, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I hear ya, it does look like a slam dunk to the downside before the weekend, but we have seen stranger happenings in this market to confound us all..

     

    ;)
    13 Mar, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    So far, I'm just loving it. My yield-oriented portfolio was singing hymns today, and only my energy stocks were the losers. I'm hoping a few issues I am tracking puke all over the place tomorrow, so I can sell some puts at elevated premiums.

     

    Absolutely nothing has changed, fundamentally. In fact, most reported news has been positive. But, heck, who pays any attention to boring facts, when they can conjure up all kinds of great stories?
    13 Mar, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I also find it amusing,, the S & P is flat on the year , and down 1.6% ftom it's recent high.

     

    The stories I heard today sounded like we're in the midst of a bear market - lol

     

    Including Marc Farber the official president of the doomsters being rolled out to proclaim the market is headed for a 30-40% decline..

     

    I'm wondering what they will conjure up when the market is off 10-15%
    13 Mar, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Why would yield-oriented be singing hymns today? Are yields considered safe in "troubled" times (so to speak)?
    13 Mar, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    The doomsters never quit. Faber has been making regular appearances on CNBC since 2009, always, invariably, predicting doom. Anybody who followed his admonitions didn't make any money.
    13 Mar, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    We aren't in "troubled times." This is just another hysterical moment, not some new pending "credit event." The credit markets are nothing like 2008.

     

    Consequently, when folks rush out of equities and rates fall, the value of yield-oriented securities rises. That's why today was a pretty good day for Treasuries, bonds, munis, REITs, preferred stocks, and even some BDC's.
    13 Mar, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    I put the "troubled" was in quotes in my comment... because there's nothing troubled going on. Sorry I should have made my tongue in cheek more clear.

     

    So...meaning that when they rush out of equities they -RUSH INTO- yield-oriented securities? (rotate into.)

     

    I don't get it. It's like lemmings. Except I once looked it up and, turned out that nature filmstrip (that started the saying) that showed lemmings jumping off a cliff after each other, was a farce and not a natural lemming behavior. Why would REITs and BDCs even be "safer" in times of "trouble." Bonds, munis, prefers, okay can be safer, but only because they're good for balancing against equities. Or actual bonds for long term CD-type bank-like investing, not funds.

     

    So if the market is down tomorrow, is there any real chance the Crimea situation will actually meltdown into a real issue over the weekend? In anyone's view?
    13 Mar, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    To me, Crimea is just an excuse. Asian and European markets have been bad lately and and Chinese stats have enough people worrying about future demand that we're starting to follow suit.

     

    Nothing really wrong here in the US but considering how expensive we've gotten you can't blame anyone for taking some profits.
    14 Mar, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    Its just matter of putting it all into perspective

     

    The S & P is up 175% since the 2009 low and we had a 30% gain last year.. all without a mere 10% correction..

     

    Many are now 'spoiled" by the way the market has reacted, it will be very interesting to see what will be said when we have a "normal" 10-15% correction .. that will happen at some point ..

     

    The media and traders can use whatever excuse they wish , and they will use them all to 'fit" into their strategy at the moment ...
    14 Mar, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    How did you know (MU) was going down today? You moved out of it in the portfolio. Your intermediate plan to hold, change any?
    13 Mar, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    No i didn't have a clue there on (MU) , but i wanted to buy (CLDX) in the challenge and needed to raise cash.. Since i had a big position there i decided to sell some.

     

    (CLDX) is speculative , but i cashed in a big gain on that one earlier and its very oversold now ..

     

    In real life i am holding onto (MU) and if this weakness continues i may add more.. Short term if this selling persists we could see 22 and change... and I would be a buyer..
    ;)
    13 Mar, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    You and Tack still in (vale), ect? I have to tell you I don't like the commodity plays -- yet anyway, and I don't like Brazil's govt. I like EM but on the consumer / banking side.
    13 Mar, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    Brazil hasn't bottomed. Get into Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand instead, whose markets have clearly bottomed.
    13 Mar, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I never got into (VALE). I'd like to wait till I'm more confident a recovery is in the works in Brazil. Also I don't want to get into gold - I don't know enough about mining.

     

    Did you see my questions above about (THD) and (VNM) to you? I'm inclined to get into some EM in that area. India, Malaysia, Indonesia seem worth keeping an eye on.
    13 Mar, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    Very simple. Thailand is the mover and shaker of the region. They will come back first and strongest. Note I've been there 3 times. Helps to understand the economy.

     

    Vietnam has opened their economy and has a young hard working population. Positive govt change.

     

    You buy the strongest choices -- in the most contrarian asset class ( EM markets).

     

    I've never liked India, both the crazy politics but more terrible infrastructure.
    13 Mar, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Have a smallish position in VALE and SID. Been selling a few high-premium OTM puts against VALE on bad days.
    13 Mar, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    I initiated a starter position in (VALE) , I'm not a trader and so my position is for the LT.

     

    While the commodity plays are out of favor at the moment , i believe they will have their day down the road , and i'm not buying in at the highs.
    I understand the trader mentality and respect that , but often get amused how everone wants "it" today .. They buy @ 12 and if it isnt 13 by the end of the week , they are frustrated..

     

    Its part of the market psychology that 'Investors" need to "put aside" to be successful......Otherwise they wil spin there wheels and get eaten alive by the natural market swings..
    14 Mar, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    What's your opinion on James A. Kostohryz's article about the market direction? It seems to be a strong viewpoint.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 Mar, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    L,
    He's the guy that wrote numerous articles jumping on the (LINE) bashing bandwagon,,

     

    All of his allegations were proven incorrect.
    in addition to that he's been wrong on the markets...

     

    &; Mac is right on his assessment of this character.
    14 Mar, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    While LINE has been a poster child for bashing, it should not be overlooked that its very recent performance just mirrors the entire sector, which has come under accelerating weakness, as commodities have hit the skids, all around.

     

    The just released (this morning) negative PPI report is just going to add fuel to the commodity sell-off and keep emerging markets on the downtrend.

     

    As an aside, it's pretty amazing the number and length of debates here in SA, concerning expected runaway inflation, when all around the deflationary warning lights are blinking yellow or red.
    14 Mar, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I'll tell you my opinion. He is extremely arrogant and can't stand dissenting views. I think bluntly he's a shyster and actually doesn't manage or advise any money. I think in short he's a good writer but a stupid investor.

     

    Clear enough?

     

    You can lose a lot of money listening to someone like that. You can actually lose a lot listening to most people here, and that includes me. You need to follow your own convictions, is the bottom line lesson.

     

    You see where I am invested -- value priced EM's. Those are long term -- not trades. I only trade actively the high PE stuff -- when QE actually ends I might try the short side again.
    13 Mar, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    Good advice, mac.
    13 Mar, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro, Tack

     

    Thank you for the blunt opinion. Saves so much time over "pussy footing."

     

    I've found my instincts aren't half bad - often quite right. What I'm looking for when I read, is to develop that "plan that works if you stick to it." In other words, basic "how to" ideas that I can then decide for myself what's right for me. Hence my many questions! I'm gathering meta concepts. You all on this blog have been great for that. Great ideas with very different styles that contrast.

     

    I couldn't make that much sense out of his article since the underlying article wasn't a counter to his. It was making entirely different points, on entirely different topics. Namely, Atwater's point was the computerized environment could trip up unexpected runs out of the market.

     

    I've been wanting to diversify into foreign markets with some of my portfolio for long term buys. Individual smaller countries like Thailand, would be smaller buys for me.
    13 Mar, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I just think in the US, is more or less fairly priced based on the GdP. Whenever the fashion show that is the market rotates back to emerging markets -- and of course it will -- you might get 10 or 20% in the SPX, while some EM's will double or even triple in time. They've done it before.
    13 Mar, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    Oh, I forgot one detail. Anyone who is extremely self promotional, trying to get a paid newsletter service going , using SA to do it, I automatically distrust.

     

    If JK was so successful with his institutional clients, why on earth would he be trolling on SA trying to sign up newsletter customers?
    13 Mar, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I suggest listening to those with nothing to sell or promote. There are folks who just invest. Me, I invest for myself. I don't care if anyone thinks (my ideas ) are bright or not. Investing --- is Not a popularity contest. That's a sure way to lose money.
    13 Mar, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    What an awesome time to buy something in Russia. I like (Mbt). If not now -- when? You think the phone company is going to disappear? Yields 6.5% with reasonable debt and foreign aid coming in (Ukraine)
    13 Mar, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Excellent possibility. And, unlike some other Russian ADR's, this one has an options table.

     

    Think I'll dig in tomorrow.
    13 Mar, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    M - where are you coming up with that 6.5% yield for mbt? According to the Morningstar numbers, the divy has been falling and last year only paid 28 cents vs 76 in 2012 and $1.05 in 2011.
    14 Mar, 04:51 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    There's little vol in the options, I just bought the stock.
    14 Mar, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I didn't do much Thursday. Took losses on my tbt position after it opened stronger but couldn't hold gains. Got out of half of my vale position when it did the same. Bot a little jnj at the close.

     

    Tough year so far and I'm still feeling uncomfortable with the market. The s&p is again down fractionally for the year - and although I'm up about $20K that has not come easy as I haven't played the momo tech stocks. Cyclicals have led on the way up for about 1.5 years and the chart looks in danger of breaking down - as does the jnk/tlt spread. If they break down they signal that at the least a short term top has been made and my guess is funds will be in sell the rally mode rather than buy the dip if that occurs. The macd's crossed yesterday for both into negative territory but it needs follow through confirmation and I would expect a little buying to come in since we're just at chart support.

     

    http://bit.ly/OaA9DW

     

    http://bit.ly/OaA6Ik

     

    The major question is there enough conviction that China is only a small problem and the economy good enough to support the high earnings forecasts? Or will participants discount the growth and take multiples lower?
    14 Mar, 05:28 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    DD:

     

    Last year, we had a 30% market gain, driven by lots of mo-mo issues. Interestingly, it was the first year of the current recovery where growth stocks outperformed income issues, on an aggregate basis, but they did it handily, by about a 3-1 margin. Much of this was occasioned by the effect that tapering fears had on interest rates.

     

    I have a suspicion that this year is going to remind many of John Lennon's quote, "Life is what happens to you while your making other plans." By that, I mean that I suspect that, while some await and debate the resumption of growth, or even a decline, time will pass by, with lots of market meandering and choppiness that's reflective of a consolidating stage. Before everyone knows it, the year will have passed by and many will still be waiting for that next big growth surge.

     

    That's why it's quite possible that this year will again return to being another year very favorable to income issues, both equities and non-equities, that generate returns without the necessity of sizable price moves. And, these types of issues will (already have) benefit from any nervousness and/or weakness that sends money back toward more conservative bastions.

     

    I'm not forecasting any sizable market or economic decline, but I do see a return to happier days for the income-oriented investors.
    14 Mar, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Tack - I still own a number of income issues, but I prefer to be a bit more diversified. However, every single time I look at the momo tech plays and then their earnings I say no way in hell.

     

    For the past couple years the market was better than the economy. This year I think it's likely the opposite will be true - at least for the first half of the year or so. Like you, I expect it to be very choppy - which is why I've done more trading - but I think it's far more likely over the next six months the market drops 10% rather than it rallies 10%.

     

    For income I own an mlp etf, a healthcare reit, a utility, and some more defensive divy stocks like jnj and the rails - which are core positions for me. I'm always happy to hear about income ideas but I prefer those with growth.
    14 Mar, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    dd:

     

    The way I learned to get price growth, along with income, was to become a "deep-value, high-yield investor." This was an evolution that happened over many years of investment strategies and experience.

     

    To expound a bit further, I discovered that it wasn't necessary to choose between growth and income. You could have both. The only way to achieve that, though, especially in higher-yielding securities, was to find those, either individually or in a sector, that were underpriced, for one reason or another. This allows one to achieve both the higher yields (due to depressed price) and potential price growth (as prices revert to normative levels).

     

    One of the best aspects, as far as I am concerned, about this approach is that one usually can depend on the income streams --and, not inconsequential at high yields -- whether or not the prices move upward within imagined periods of time, or whether they move at all. And, even if they move against you, the income will eventually amortize the paper losses.

     

    This approach has, for me, taken a lot of the guesswork and stress out of having to choose a nonpaying issue and wonder if and when it may produce a capital gain, or if it goes down, whether to hold, or just take a loss and redeploy. A continuous stream of income ameliorates this dilemma immensely.

     

    And, because one is depending on both income, now, and undervaluation, eventually, to work in one's favor, one can be much less sensitive to market timing issues, which, of course, can be the bane of any all-capital-gains oriented approach.

     

    I, too, am diversified, but this is more of a question of types of securities and sectors, rather than whether they offer income or not. Basically, I just avoid one-dimensional plays that can only make returns with price movements, alone.

     

    Just some thoughts....
    14 Mar, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I think the $30 2 year leaps (FXI) are free money. $.02
    14 Mar, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair

     

    A bet that China will grow in next couple years, seems practically a sure thing to me too.

     

    Any reason to do leaps over parking money directly?

     

    Out of curiousity did a quick check -- Wisdom Tree has a dividend ETF ex-financials China:
    http://bit.ly/1qH3UuR

     

    Any other opinions on China? (Feel free to comment in the next Chapter.)
    15 Mar, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Is this have any truth?

     

    "Japan stocks often take the first hit on bad Asian news, then when the U.S. markets fall later, they react to that as well, resulting in a 'double whammy' effect," says hedge-fund manager Ed Rogers.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 Mar, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    LOMH;

     

    FYI anyone who does not completely agree with James K is a hater and /or troll. . Hence I hold zero respect for him.
    14 Mar, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    You've got that right! I've had a couple tussles with him. One thing that amazes me is how much he is followed considering how often he's wrong.
    14 Mar, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    That he's a good writer, but poor investor makes sense with my impression from several articles.

     

    On haters, I find his reaction to the posters of his past record wasn't good. (Never really answered, just dismissed the points.) However, what also threw me is one of those posters, Strike, a few days ago was posting about
    Ukraine by berating Israel with anti-semitic stuff right off well known hate sites. Not to mention that Ukraine wasn't about Israel, lol. That poster's sounded more sane and on topic since then. Also I found that 3 cheeses tended to be rude as all getup when making his points, making it hard to take him seriously. On James though I really appreciate the observation... since it can go a long way to not getting influenced by author's and noise.
    14 Mar, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Actually I think he's a poor writer since he often complicates very simple concepts - perhaps to make himself look smarter.
    14 Mar, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -To everyone

     

    What authors do you follow & find tend to get it right, or are good at outlining topics?

     

    :) I know BSF's favorites.
    14 Mar, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    A few:

     

    Arne Alsin
    BDC Review
    BDC Buzz
    Jeff Miller
    Calafia Beach Pundit
    Chuck Carnevale
    Bob McTeer
    Bob Johnson
    14 Mar, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    F&G and Tack's commentaries aren't bad. :)

     

    Douglas Albo
    Rubicon Associates (Michael Terry)
    Adam Aloisi
    LeftBanker
    Tim McPartland
    Cranky (kind of to hear the other side)
    Monty Spivak

     

    Actually, I seem to have a lot more individuals commentaries bookmarked than authors compared to a few years ago...
    14 Mar, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    U:

     

    If we're including commenters, two I have found educational and thought provoking, especially on economic and banking matters, are Lawrence J. Kramer and JasonC.
    14 Mar, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    Bret Jensen,

     

    simple straight forward stock ideas

     

    http://bit.ly/1gqFQrK
    14 Mar, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - I was familiar with some of these names.

     

    ...but quite a few I haven't noticed before.

     

    Does LeftBanker tend to be a good source in other folk's observations? User7 follows him. I've like some of his comments, but hadn't developed an opinion yet.

     

    Someone I've noticed lately that seems thoughtful so far:
    Banmate6
    And sinedo made a great comment about thinking like an investor, not a trader on an (LINE) article.
    14 Mar, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    (RSX) was dropping until today. Good way to play the Russia threat?

     

    Looks like most people are waiting this out until Monday.
    14 Mar, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - (BRK/B)

     

    is down to $122.60. It's still higher than before... but is it a good entry point?
    14 Mar, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    L we will see next week. Go in slowly then you can average your cost. If you are a long term holder, then your exact entry point won't matter as much. However, I would wait to see how we do next week.

     

    I don't invest in (BRK.B) because there isn't a dividend. However, I do own many of the same companies held by Buffet.

     

    (PSEC) is at a very good entry point right now.

     

    It's been said that (HSY) is a good indicator of how the US is doing. It was up today….one of my sweetest positions for sure.

     

    Have a good weekend everybody.
    14 Mar, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF,

     

    On Berkshire, I decided to wait till Monday right after I posted that. Even with a vote, it's likely to still feel uncertain on Monday. I don't see any risk to US markets, but I'm seeing a lot of investors posting worry about possible WWIII. Since (BRK.B) doesn't have a dividend, I'll wait for an entry point I like - or miss it.

     

    Have (http://bit.ly/Ne44cC) at about break even from before. Two other BDCs down 4-6%. I have enough in BDCs especially with rate going up sometime or another. (http://bit.ly/Ne44cC) is a good buy - and they met earnings, so they aren't getting "punished" the way (http://bit.ly/10gQkhr) and (TDRC) are.

     

    I want to get some retail, especially clothes & general household, since they're out of favor. Checked into ETFs at MarketVector, ishares, vang, spdr... eew. Nothing's a nice mix. Most even mix discretionary with staples (even when they have two ETFs, supposedly one for each.) Definitely shows me why everyone's focusing on individual stocks for this. Problem is to diversify within this, commissions kill it, so I may need to open at Merrill and follow you...

     

    Glad to hear (http://bit.ly/YWzd3a) is doing well... weren't they close to going out of business? Hum, kind of like the economy back then. Economic data seems good... but the market's gotten out of step with the actual growth.

     

    Have a good weekend too!
    14 Mar, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Second paragraph I'm writing about (PSEC) and (TCAP) and (TDRC). Last paragraph is about (HSY).
    14 Mar, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    "(PSEC) is at a very good entry point right now."

     

    I tend to agree. Using it for the yield right now and accumulating the cash.
    15 Mar, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12781) | Send Message
     
    Like PSEC, but think TICC an even better buy at this instant, after dip on secondary. They both have same 1.01 price/book, but TICC's earnings trends have been better.
    15 Mar, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4568) | Send Message
     
    T,
    I added (TICC) on friday, after you pointed out their weakness due to the secondary offering..

     

    Good place to park some $ and rake in that yield..

     

    Thanks.... :)
    15 Mar, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    T - just looked at a BDC watch list I created on TD about 9 months ago and TICC was on it. I need to go back and look at it.

     

    FG- I too am looking for a place to park some $.
    15 Mar, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    I sold BRK.B, taking $4.00, for a couple of reasons: US markets look shakey here -- and I added more to (idx), added (Rsx). Emerging markets look like the next rotation.
    14 Mar, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Didn't know you were in Indonesia (IDX). That was one I'd mentioned... I've read positive about the country's development. Have you been there too, any impression? Is Philippines on your radar?

     

    (RSX) looks like a possible gain from this particular scenario since it was down around 14%. After that it looks risky for much more growth -- may have some, may get boggled down by internal or external issues.
    15 Mar, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2956) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I've been there. Worst traffic in the world. Loads of potential. Phillipines is more expensive, I do have a small long there too.
    15 Mar, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras (EBR) -- had been mentioned as a Brazil option.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fHtxYv

     

    — also know as Eletrobras, Latin America’s largest utility company — is also taking a hit for reasons well beyond its control.

     

    Brazil had the third-highest electricity prices in the world until the government targeted a reduction of 20% as part of stimulus program. That took a huge bite out of Elertrobras’s margins. For the most recent fiscal year, Electrobras posted a net loss of $3.4 billion, all because the government forced to accept lower prices. Analysts forecast Electrobras to book a net loss this year, too.

     

    The current economic and political environment makes it hard to see what possible catalyst could pull EBR stock out of negative territory any time soon. EBR’s payouts have been erratic, so the stock’s dividend yield is basically a roll of the dice. Worst of all, EBB still has no profits. For dividend stocks, that’s another dealbreaker.
    14 Mar, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Here's Chapter #11!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Mar, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    Anybody follow (NRF)? They just increased their common payout to 0.25, paying this coming Monday. Anybody have any news on them splitting out their management into a separate company? Haven't seen anything about it since the articles back several months ago. It by far has been my biggest advance since 2010 with almost a 300% return.
    15 Mar, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Adam Galas
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    I am running a multi-year experiment comparing different investing styles.

     

    Right now I'm in the process of building building a high quality high yield portfolio and testing it against a dividend growth portfolio.

     

    http://bit.ly/PNLDhT

     

    Right now I'm swamped with work but eventually I'd like to also test it against a portfolio of highest insider ownership.
    18 Mar, 10:25 PM Reply Like
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