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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #11 171 comments
    Mar 14, 2014 11:28 PM

    I 've set up this blog ...as community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!!

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    This is Chapter #11. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments.

    Here's a link to the prior, #10: seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land...

    .

    Links

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great!:
    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long IWM, DIA, SPY, QQQ.

    Additional disclosure: ...and many more...

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (171)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good Morning!

     

    It occurs to me... if you think any of the contacts mentioned in the previous chapter would enjoy this chat... please invite them! :)

     

    Have you ever been to Crimea, Ukraine or near that part of the world?
    15 Mar 2014, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    This chapter's gotten long -- so next chapter 12 is here:
    http://bit.ly/1pfG6Li

     

    (I'm trying out a new thing of putting the new chapter at the start as well as end of the old chapter.)
    20 Mar 2014, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    LOMH,

     

    Been busy the last few weeks so been trying to get in some reading. Read a comment on SA, can't remember where, but the gist was that the market wasn't entirely in sync with the economy. Market was up well before the economy began moving. I tend to agree because I get the feeling we are going to see the market kind of stay flat while the economy continues to rise. From what I gather in my industry based on the results of the first two months, it definitely looks like we are well on our way to exceed 2013 results. Things are getting BUSY!
    15 Mar 2014, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    cw:

     

    That's called "horizontal consolidation," and it's the bane of doomers everywhere.
    15 Mar 2014, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    T-

     

    It's strange because when the market began to take off I didn't see it in my industry. But just in the last few months things are breaking open. Hiring is up, workload is now starting to backlog and when I look at the S&P it looks flat. I've been hanging with my yield oriented investments. March looks to be my largest income month since I've decided to go in a different direction.
    15 Mar 2014, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CWinn

     

    Busy sounds good. I think it was Fear who told me the market tends to be forward looking by about 6-9 months. It does seem time to let the economy catch up, so the market can see better into that distance.

     

    Nice to know your industry is picking up! The economic data's been positive IMO, even while I read lots of uncertainity about it.
    15 Mar 2014, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    The market is forward looking?
    16 Mar 2014, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
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    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair

     

    Yep. It looks to what a company will be making based on estimates, not what is has made. Estimates are of the company...and the macro environment.

     

    So good GDP is effecting market because it's estimated to mean the companies will be able to earn more since the economy is "growing." Same with everything else.

     

    Hence the term "priced in" for news. It's often considered priced-in long before it has direct effect.

     

    That's my perception of it of what's meant by it.

     

    Fear has a very good explanation of it -- about looking forward being a key lesson he learned. I'll ask him again. It's like sports - moving to where the ball will be, not where it is.
    16 Mar 2014, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    I think the stock market is a reflection of the present, 02.
    16 Mar 2014, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    Market is always forward looking..

     

    Hence the continued strength in the averages all the way from S & P 1400 to present .. Many doubted the recovery and said the economy wasn't improving and wondered how the market could go up when things looked so bad..
    They didin't grasp the concept that the market never trades on the absolute, it reacts to a change it sees in the economy , etc. whether positive or negative.

     

    Now as we have seen some of that improvement and have traded to these levels , the market will now look and react to what it may view in the next 6 months or so .. Right now the market "may" be looking at China having a negative impact on Europe and the overall global economy.. hence the pause , or maybe a correction.

     

    Its also why these short term issues like cyprus, crimea , and all of the "noise" we went thru during this recovery are basically non -events. as long as the change that was taking place was "positive" the market direction was higher, regardless of "noise"
    16 Mar 2014, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair

     

    How so? Examples?
    16 Mar 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Thanks! It was that it "trades on (forward looking) changes it sees" was your wording I was trying to remember.

     

    ...that explains that last year it traded down on "taper is coming maybe even end to ZIRP" mid-year, long before actual events, to me.

     

    Also why lower guidance can make a stock drop like a rock, even when it's beat on earnings & revenues. And why (CVX) went up after getting bad news on one of it's Australia mining holdings... because the news was expected, so sigh of relief, it was as anticipated not worse.
    16 Mar 2014, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    U got it :) --- with your comment

     

    "Also why lower guidance can make a stock drop like a rock, even when it's beat on earnings & revenues. And why (CVX) went up after getting bad news on one of it's Australia mining holdings... because the news was expected, so sigh of relief, it was as anticipated not worse."

     

    Investors scratch their heads over that type of example.. and they continually ask "the stock just recorded great earnings why is it going down?

     

    ans. those great earnings are already history.. and the market wants to look at the future prospects..

     

    that is also why GROWTH always gets a premium , despite what the earnings may be today.
    16 Mar 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Well was the market forward looking in March 2009?

     

    Was it forward looking Oct 2007?

     

    Do you believe the stock market predicted the changes in the economy?
    16 Mar 2014, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    If I remember correctly the US economy hit bottom after the market crashed. The crash felt like a hit out of the blue. There were problems with a few banks, too many people living on credit, but everything wasn't that bad. The crash & unemployment peeked after that.

     

    The crash may even have been part of the driver of the general economy downward. (That point, I'll leave to more experienced people to elucidate & debate.)

     

    On Oct 2007, the market was looking forward with exuberance... while ignoring all the road signs. Dancing Diva's article has a good image of that... (road signs and all).

     

    So to forward looking, there's also blind spots to what the market "thinks" is coming. Your examples make that point well.

     

    The market doesn't -predict- the economy. It anticipates. Based on data & investor guessing. It also operates at the juncture of businesses making decisions. That is a leader to employment direction, and lending availablity, and effect on general population...

     

    The market isn't a straight line about anticipating either. It can get ahead of itself and need to consolidate while it waits for economics and it's prices to match. So over exuberance is an indicator of the market not being lined up well...

     

    Those are my perceptions, .02.
    16 Mar 2014, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I googled "stock market forward looking" and google makes more suggestions like "why is the stock market forward looking", then gives lots of links. From that I assume it's a general "conception" (whether or not it's fully accurate.)

     

    Here's wiki's like (though I always take wiki with a big grain of salt.)
    http://bit.ly/Ol2nfh
    16 Mar 2014, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry about the typos...
    16 Mar 2014, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    CWinn - If you don't mind me being nosy, what industry are you in?
    16 Mar 2014, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Consulting engineer for site development in commercial, residential, and some light industrial.
    16 Mar 2014, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Thanks! Other nosy questions - any specific location and is the growth across the board or weighted toward one of the three you mentioned?
    16 Mar 2014, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    I think the market herds to a consensus much more than it is forward looking it is human nature.

     

    ie taper will end rates will go to the sky, "taper ends" rates didn't go to the sky, rates to the floor!
    17 Mar 2014, 03:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair

     

    So you're thinking it's more about the psychological impacts, less the realistic looks forward. Not sure I'd argue against that :).

     

    I do think I've read that the market itself can move, lead, the economy... but that's a topic I haven't delved into to. Maybe someday.
    17 Mar 2014, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    dd - southeast and it's up all around.
    17 Mar 2014, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    I think everything you wrote is everything that is wrong with the economics they teach us...

     

    Does it really make sense, that the market which is supposedly the best guess of all the intelligent people predicts the future of the economy?
    19 Mar 2014, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Now when you write the market "moves" the economy well that makes sense to me.

     

    I've tripled my wealth since 2009... I wonder if I spend more today than then.

     

    How do you think CEO's make decisions on how much to invest in growth?
    19 Mar 2014, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair,

     

    It's not that the market -predicts- the future, but that it -anticipates- it. So it can be quite inaccurate. But it's a leading indicator - because it's forward looking, vs. it's not a trailing indicator (like unemployment.)

     

    Spending your wealth-- it's not on a per person basis. It's averaged. So if you take all the people now employed, who are not digging into savings and are spending more... with people like you who went into the market, those numbers might work.

     

    Also, the market is high priced for the economy, everyone seems to think. (Antiicpation with a short term error.) So better to use more conservative numbers for you as well.

     

    Also demographics. That's why it keeps going up over the long term. And why there's an SA section for demographics. It's literally more people spending money. And kids. Someone with kids complained to me recently that they had $25k 15 years ago before the kids, and have $25k now, all with a good paying job. There's also all the U.S. go'vt stimulus spending.
    19 Mar 2014, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Look at the Shanghai index, the country is growing at 7% a year yet the index has declined for last 3 years.
    20 Mar 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair on Shanghai

     

    I don't know Shanghai index to know the story there.

     

    The "market's forward looking" is a known concept. The merits can be debated. I was just using it as a general concept.

     

    I'd guess that a look behind the scenes at Shanghai, will show other factors than straight "growth." Otherwise, in a global world & internet for easy research, investors would have flocked in.
    20 Mar 2014, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I'm a'thinking the next political unrest in Thailand, may give a good entry point.

     

    Interesting article -- Credit-Suisse's summary is, the politics don't kill the returns but overall economic growth for this year is expected to be slow. "Bottom-up, however, Thailand offers some interesting stocks." Big banks, Telecom, Energy, Tourism.

     

    With punchline:
    "Political events will almost certainly give even these stocks a rocky ride, but long-term investors will likely see good gains on a 12-month view."
    http://bit.ly/1oZ1yUs
    15 Mar 2014, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    LOMH - look at (TTF) Thailand Fund. Don't really know how to value it, but it's trading at a huge discount. Value or throwing money away????
    17 Mar 2014, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
     
    CW,

     

    I checked that one out a while back - the nav dropped like a brick because they paid out a monster distribution at the end of January. Not sure as to why they paid out that much.

     

    NAV didn't do so hot over the last year, but over the last five years did quite well. And it looks like it started right before the Asian crisis in the 90's and the NAV dropped huge and stayed there for a couple of years. And then started doing well at the turn of the century and so on. Almost like a cyclical stock the way it acts.

     

    Maybe EMs tend to be cyclical? I don't know a whole lot about them.
    18 Mar 2014, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CWinn

     

    I looked at (THD). Seemed a good mix, not too concentrated in anything.

     

    The article points out that Thai markets have moved up in poor political settings, down in good. So it's a strong enough economy and constant enough politics, for it to have potential.

     

    The article goes into everything very well. I went through quite a few articles before I found a good one. Another - oddly on a charity website:
    http://bit.ly/1kKn6Vd

     

    If you get a chance to read them -- let me know your impression!
    20 Mar 2014, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Agreed. India has a ways to go on social & policy to create a strong economic growth. Lots of good people & democracy, but my close friend, who's Indian, tells me everything is run by bribes, from court cases, to business arrangements.
    15 Mar 2014, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    10 Warning Signs of Market Exuberance - I've mixed feelings about this piece but thought it interesting enough to pass on.

     

    http://bit.ly/1lFSKmp

     

    The high valuations we are currently seeing can be explained by the very low interest rates on bonds and lack of alternatives. But how high is too high for comfort?
    16 Mar 2014, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Reading the beginning, it's reminding me of an accident I had early on. A few warning signs, most looked similar to all the usual "turn coming" on this windy two-lane road. Then this time the road had a 90deg turn. After I totaled the car, people came out of the house and said "oh yah, lot's of people come round that bend & total their car. You're not hurt? That's unusual." (I'd done some good last min steering adjustments.)

     

    Lesson I took from it, is not to drive with as risky a style as my dad (who taught me.) He had experience to manage for it, & I didn't yet. Needed to find my own style & risk level. Hum....which reminds me of the markets too. :)

     

    In terms of overvaluations & parabolic movements...a question...for (BRK/B), once the undervaluation was spotted, was the climb up unusually fast??

     

    If so it'd indicate to me, there's not a lot of good looking buys right now, so it drew attention quickly.

     

    Also there's a rotation to EM starting (a few articles popping up on it). That's an indication too that U.S. is feeling overbought.

     

    Article is saying 17x times earnings is very high. I read a comment recently (can't remember where, beach pundit maybe?) that 17x-15 is historically normal. That what's changed is expectations of 13x as normal.

     

    The article has -a lot- in it to consider...!
    16 Mar 2014, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Some of the data in the article is a little suspect. Like needing to adjust the scale on the valuation chart, exhibit 2. Or referencing margins without giving the "normals" to compare to, #6.
    16 Mar 2014, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    RE: brkb - yes, the climb was unusually fast. I'd let it come in a bit or wait for some sideways consolidation. You could consider putting on a 1/4 position then adding later.

     

    Regarding valuation: the beach pundit never said how he came up with that number. As far as I'm concerned the past ten years is more important than the past 50 - so I'm leaning heavily on the following which suggests the market is about 10% overpriced assuming the earnings forecast one year out is correct.
    Look at the first chart.

     

    http://bit.ly/OufvhP
    16 Mar 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Uhm, that's quite an eye-opening picture!

     

    Positive outlook -- price was similarly way above earnings in 2004-2005, waiting for earnings to catch up without correcting.

     

    Earnings themselves were very positive. But in Q1 - 89 companies report negative guidance. 17 positive.

     

    Oh, I see what Beach Pundit's saying. For 2010 to mid-2013 prices were well below forward earnings. So PEs were lower then historic (and bring down the 10 & 5 year averages.) I'd like to see an ongoing chart of the ratios themselves thru the whole 10 years.

     

    .....Still the current price line is way over the PE...while PEs are slowing down. That's not a good mix!

     

    That slow recovery is why your focus on last 5-10 year avgs makes sense to me. Also psychologically, investor's expectations are what they are.
    16 Mar 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair & BSF

     

    From the same report from (COH)

     

    "“As expected, China sales rose about 25% from prior
    year, fueled by double digit same-store sales and
    distribution growth. We're very pleased by the cont
    inued development of this market, which bodes well
    for our global travel retail business, where Mainla
    nd Chinese tourists plays an increasingly important
    role.” –Coach (Jan. 22) "
    16 Mar 2014, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "way above earnings in 2004-2005, -WAITED- for earnings to catch up without correcting."
    17 Mar 2014, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Thanks been working hard haven't had as much time as I would like to devote to stocks.
    17 Mar 2014, 03:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -Yair

     

    Me too :).
    17 Mar 2014, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    i have seen that article , he does bring up a few good points.

     

    However, i believe his normal slant leans to the 'bearish" side..

     

    At some point those that have presented a bearish view for months and in some cases years will eventually be correct.

     

    It seems , everyone wants to be a "hero" and call the top..

     

    of course when it didn't happen , some 400 S & P points ago , and all the way to the present, they just dismiss & forget that they were "early " -- LOL
    16 Mar 2014, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cwinn

     

    I don't follow (NRF) but maybe someone else does. 300% return? Wow.
    16 Mar 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    LOMH...fortunately I came across (NRF) in 2010 in a screen I ran. I found (PSEC) about that same time too. I bought into NRF in three separate trades and I've dripped dividends since then. My avg cost is just barely over $4/share. By far the best investment I've ever made.
    16 Mar 2014, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . CWinn -

     

    On (NRF) saw this today -

     

    http://bit.ly/1kYsdn4

     

    Jay Flaherty pays dividends for NorthStar
    Mar 17 2014, 10:45 ET

     

    NorthStar Realty Finance (NRF -0.4%) agrees to buy a healthcare real estate portfolio consisting of 43 private-pay senior housing facilities and 37 skilled nursing facilities from two private groups for $1.05B. The deal had been talked about during Northstar's Q4 earnings call last month, and - when closed - will grow the company's healthcare property portfolio value by about 65%.
    CEO David Hamamoto: "Since joining our healthcare real estate team only two months ago, Jay Flaherty has sourced an investment pipeline through his relationships in the industry that is adding significant value to the NorthStar franchise."
    From January: Ousted HCP chief Jay Flaherty joins Northstar to build healthcare real estate operation.
    17 Mar 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Are we really getting another big snow storm today?!
    16 Mar 2014, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    Don't know about snow--- just rain here in the Carolinas :) , but here is a thought or two on the market

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Mar 2014, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I agree a major top isn't coming. What about an intermediate top? There's been calls for one since last summer, but for the first time it feels like it really is coming. Though BSF had a good pt, if GDP comes in strong, it could mute it, & keep going higher.
    16 Mar 2014, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    A question to the group.

     

    Where do you like to "park" your cash currently?

     

    Tack has mentioned a few convertible and/or floating rate debt and/or funds NCV, PFL, VVR, PHD

     

    Someone mentioned BDCs like TICC and PSEC

     

    F&G mentioned some preferreds and BDCs
    16 Mar 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    Allow me to add further comment, as a long-time investor in all of these groups:

     

    BDC's are almost without doubt one of the most volatile sectors if.when markets come under anything more than minor duress. So, any money placed their should be looked at as strategically invested and be managed, not "parked."

     

    Various CEF's are good for positioning for expected moves, like higher or lower rates, but those, too, can come under duress because most CEF's are thinly traded, and if investors panic, they can drive prices down well below the actual underlying NAV values of such funds. In that respect, they can even increase volatility.

     

    Individual quality preferred issues, exchange-traded senior debt, and quality bonds are two of the most stable classes and are usually the last to give way, if markets turn disorderly.
    16 Mar 2014, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    What is "exchange-traded senior debt"?

     

    On preferreds, is that a more expensive way for a company to raise money than bonds? Making it a sign that the company has more risk? (So you'd want a very solid company.) Why would they opt for it? Just something I've been wondering.
    16 Mar 2014, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Not at all. Is it a sign that companies have more risk, if they issue common stock, rather than sell bonds?

     

    Perferred stock is just another financing instrument that inhabits the space between bonds and common shares. Like bonds, preferreds usually have fixed rates of yield and call dates and/or maturities, but, like common shares, the dividends must be declared to be paid. Nobody is in default if preferred dividends are not paid. If the shares are cumulative, unpaid dividends must be made up; if their not cumulative, then they don't. And, if and until all cumulative preferred dividends are paid in full, there can be no common dividends or new share issues, either.
    16 Mar 2014, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    Thanks. So it gives the company a more flexible financing option. Worst case of needing to delay payments, isn't as dire in consequences as defaulting on bonds.

     

    Thinking it through?... companies aren't riskier if they sell common stocks over bonds. However, they are taking more risks & looking for a bigger capital gain to fund their needs. So in that way they may be riskier than a company that's not expanding as much, so a few bonds are all they need. ...more growth potential though too.
    16 Mar 2014, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Bond are the riskiest financing option for issuers, because they must be paid (no ifs), but, they're also the least expensive financing option, too.
    16 Mar 2014, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Thanks - got it!
    17 Mar 2014, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    I'm have great respect for this guys technical work - and for the first time in awhile he's cautious.

     

    http://bit.ly/1nvzOeM
    16 Mar 2014, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    agreed , that makes a bunch of us who have been bullish and now are falling into the cautious camp..
    16 Mar 2014, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    He makes a convincing argument. Long term bull, intermediate top forming, short term oversold bounce coming -- at least to the extent I understood how he gets his buy/sold singals out of the technicals.

     

    Makes me wonder if unlike him, newer folks to TA get the short & intermediate signals mixed up some, and that's why there'll be so many confusing articles...?

     

    Helps sound convincing to me -- since his conclusions are what I'm expecting. The signal of less breath, i.e. less shares driving the indices higher... wonder if that's what I've noticed as on green days, I'll see a lot of my watch list is red. It wasn't that way last year. (However, on red days for indices a bunch of my watchlist will be green.)
    16 Mar 2014, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I think I know why I'm missing comments sometimes. ...when I post a comment of my own, the page refreshes including with any new comments -- but doesn't mark those new comments as new (no red tag). Then next time I check for new comments, those are already loaded -- so there's never a notification for them.

     

    I.e. It's a programming loophole. And I'm not losing my mind. (Well, maybe I am, but this isn't the proof.)
    16 Mar 2014, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    A little luck never hurt :)

     

    http://bit.ly/1ic8LQe

     

    .
    And keeping it real

     

    http://bit.ly/1ic8MDT

     

    .
    Happy investing!
    17 Mar 2014, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Anyone's Irish luck continuing today -- did my posted pictures help?
    18 Mar 2014, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    no complaints here :)

     

    S & P up 13 , Dow up 88
    18 Mar 2014, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    very good pics Lomah, if I didn't have the flu I'd be feeling a bit more like celebrating St. Paddy's day ; )
    20 Mar 2014, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    very good pics Lomah, if I didn't have the flu I'd be feeling a bit more like celebrating St. Paddy's day ; )

     

    we need some luck every day!
    20 Mar 2014, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    l,
    You brought a good luck charm to the market opening as all looks "green" ,,,

     

    Now its a matter of how long that "green" lasts :)
    17 Mar 2014, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    We just has a mild earthquake in the LA area. You heard it here first.
    17 Mar 2014, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Hope you are safe... as long as it's mild :).
    17 Mar 2014, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Everything is fine. The house shook for about 20 seconds and I shook for an additional 5-10 minutes - and I'm not joking. This is the 3rd or 4th one I've felt since we moved here 15 years ago. When we remodeled the house before moving in we had it built to the latest earthquake specifications so we're good unless it's a big one. With one at 4.5 (but only about 20 miles away) nothing even fell off the shelves.
    17 Mar 2014, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    dd:

     

    My wife and I lived in Mountain View when the Big One hit Loma Prieta, just a few miles away, in 1989. I was home, on the second floor, at the time. It was very educational about what people are advised versus what many people think they'll do in such circumstances.

     

    Of course, one is advised to take shelter in a doorway or under a heavy desk, etc. But, I always used to hear people scoff and say, "the heck with that, I'm running outside."

     

    I am here to say that, no, you're not running outside, or anywhere else, because when a truly big one hits, you can't even stay on your feet. You're just another piece of "furniture" being thrown around the house. You're lucky if you can brace in a door frame or crawl somewhere.
    17 Mar 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Tack: I can appreciate that. I was sitting at my desk, pretty much paralyzed with fear and wondering what to do. Luckily it was over fast and didn't have to make that decision. My husband and 14 year old son slept right through it.

     

    You must have had a lot of damage to your house and the area probably looked like a war zone for awhile. I can't imagine living through that. We were living in NYC at that time and I remember seeing the pictures on the news and being astounded by the scenes.
    17 Mar 2014, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    dd:

     

    Fortunately, we lived in a well-constructed wood-frame structure, the very best kind (short of steel) in an earthquake because it's so flexible, as compared to masonry. Most of our damage was confined to household goods, furniture and art work, which was tossed about effortlessly.

     

    I observed one amazing event, which demonstrates vividly the amount of movement and harmonizing power of earthquake waves. We had a large kitchen, with a cathedral ceiling at least 20 feet high. From the center of that arch hung a pendant free-swinging globe light on a wire. I watched the house arc back and forth until that globe crashed into one of the kitchen side walls, at least 12 feet away from the centerline of that globe.

     

    It's important to understand that it was not the free-hanging globe that was oscillating, but the walls of the kitchen. In essence, they moved more than 12 feet laterally in each oscillation. It was truly spellbinding.
    17 Mar 2014, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4441) | Send Message
     
    20-foot ceilings in a kitchen? Color me impressed. :)
    17 Mar 2014, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    JBT:

     

    It was an upside-down design with bedrooms on the first floor and living area on the second, which was an open plan with a high cathedral ceiling, whose peak was over the center of the kitchen and tapered to the front and rear of the residence.
    17 Mar 2014, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Glad you both survived those earthquakes, older and new.

     

    I've only been in one, tiny one... and I can remember the shaking for minutes afterward.

     

    That walls swinging - around a light fixture -- is quite an image.
    17 Mar 2014, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .... I meant to say... remember ME shaking for minutes afterward....
    17 Mar 2014, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    article on Margin debt , it's not what the bears would want to hear..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Mar 2014, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG Margin debt

     

    There's some good points in there, some poor math logic too.

     

    I haven't seen yet, how margin predicts a crash anyway. If it's just another exuberance measure, there are many others of those. The current regulations won't let margin dramatically enhance a crash in 1929-style.

     

    To go with his point that some margin is being used for inverse ETFs so it doesn't count the same way...

     

    I've been pondering... how much of this "high" margin is used in very short term trades, even day trades, so it's irrelevant too.
    17 Mar 2014, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Here's an excellent article on debt margin: http://bit.ly/1bzMebb

     

    It's a non-predictor. 1929's fears left over. Last chart on page implies as % of price, it's a little high right now -- like market needs a correction...same as other indicators.
    18 Mar 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Thanks,

     

    I did see that article, good info to use to counter the argument that the market is about to crack because they believe everyone is strung out on margin...
    18 Mar 2014, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    A note from Schaeffer research

     

    "CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) call volume was massive on Friday, indicating near-extreme fear in the market," per Bryan Sapp. "In fact, the volume was the second highest seen all year. The biggest volume we saw was on Feb. 3, when markets made a significant bottom at the lows of the year. This excessive VIX call buying COULD be a sign that it's time to get long the market."
    17 Mar 2014, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Green it's been! I don't know about using VIX as contrarian... fear could be realistic sometimes...
    17 Mar 2014, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    That's the problem with the vix. You can only use it as a contrary indicator in hindsight. One of these days it'll hit 20 and not back off but go up to 30 or 40. Trouble is you don't know when that will occur.
    17 Mar 2014, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    Is it the luck of the Irish today or what?? Glad we are up a little but we need to "digest" awhile before the market can really go higher. I don't expect much to happen until after 3rd Q, maybe not even until November.

     

    Anyone buy on Friday? I did nibble a little. For now, I'm pretty much fully invested.

     

    We had a dusting of snow, already gone. We need some more 50+ days.
    17 Mar 2014, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Nope - it was the luck in the links I posted above that did it today!

     

    We had inches, and I'm south of you. Was able to get out as needed though.

     

    I bought some IWM index. Keeps it neutral & diverse, and if it goes down... I can hold. Or switch to individual in a parallel move at any time. Coolest thing, end of year turns out a couple vanilla index funds do once a year dividend distribution, & I happened to be holding.
    17 Mar 2014, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    L, there are still some great stocks out there. (O) is doing very well, over 5% dividend.

     

    Today I looked over some of my stocks to see how they did over the long haul. (LMT) (JNJ) (KMB) (HSY) (NOC) (IBM) (AAPL) etc. It shows what buying a stock, and then holding it for decades can do for you. Stick to the great companies, then don't ever sell them. You can re-invest the dividends for now, then use them for extra cash during retirement. The biggest regret I have is selling (LO) and (GMCR). Those 2 continue to outperform.

     

    Even if we do get a 10% correction, who knows when it will be. If we do get one, I'll use my available cash to take advantage. Until then, I'm not selling my blue ribbon stocks. I have a few that if they go up a little more, I might sell. However, more than likely it would have been better to hold them. (NDLS) is one that might do really well in the next 2 or 3 years.

     

    Keep buying on the dips. Everything I bought last week is up.
    17 Mar 2014, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    I looked at max charts on Yahoo. Using 1990 as a reference, most of the stocks I checked were up over 10 times. In a 25 year period, that's amazing. I'd be happy to do that well in the next 25 years. If my over all portfolios can bring in $100,000 every year from dividends 10 years from now, then my goals will have been met. What the portfolio is worth won't be as important to me as the income.
    17 Mar 2014, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF

     

    I wasn't impressed by (NDLS). The IPO was high % to pay debit, not just for expansion. Eating there, neither of us liked it or would bother returning. Chipolatas hits a needed niche of healthier, tasty, fast. If Noodles doing well though... that's the thing.

     

    In spite of your regrets... you seem to be doing just fine :).
    17 Mar 2014, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    I may have to wait awhile for (NDLS) to go up, they haven't been doing much lately. But they did open up a restaurant in Toronto, maybe that will help them make $.
    20 Mar 2014, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    (BDD) looks interesting
    18 Mar 2014, 04:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair (Base Metals Double long)

     

    How so? Trade or intermediate holding? Generally with developing countries' growth, industry raw materials seem a good long term idea.
    18 Mar 2014, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Sorry (BBD) great undervalued bank.
    18 Mar 2014, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Also like BBVA and SAN from Spain, although not as good a value as BBD. Enjoy those high divs!
    18 Mar 2014, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Russia news not unexpected. If long (RSX) take a bit off perhaps by 24. Nice trade I am holding this for a while, 26-28 is not unreasonable.
    18 Mar 2014, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Market's seem to be over Russia.

     

    Based on this:
    "Putin says he does not want to see a partition of Ukraine even as he signs a treaty to annex Crimea"
    ....whatever that means.
    18 Mar 2014, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Smart move. I'm not going to buy (RSX) now. But, now that I've seen the trade in action... I'm ready for the next crisis.

     

    BSF - you're holding (RSX)?
    18 Mar 2014, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    No I never bought, too risky for me. Just thought it makes an interesting predictor on how Russia is doing. Looks like it says Russia is not doing well, since it's down a lot going all the way back to 2011.
    19 Mar 2014, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    it means that as of now , Russia, has achieved their mission and wants no part of going forward into Ukraine.

     

    So the "wizards" were apparently short stocks and long gold going into the weekend , assuming that the aggression would continue into the Ukraine..

     

    what a great contrarian indicator that was.. :)

     

    result --- wrong again --- equities up, gold down ,
    18 Mar 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Any stocks with a story... that make a good buy?

     

    What's the sense of valuations? Too high? What's your preferred measure?

     

    My 2cents on CAPE:
    is used a lot to suggest fear, but it's a crummy predictor. Chart tells that. Even Shiller says it's not good for predicting & can be a couple years early.
    18 Mar 2014, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Adam Galas
    , contributor
    Comments (460) | Send Message
     
    I am running a multi-year experiment comparing different investing styles.

     

    Right now I'm in the process of building building a high quality high yield portfolio and testing it against a dividend growth portfolio.

     

    http://bit.ly/PNLDhT

     

    Right now I'm swamped with work but eventually I'd like to also test it against a portfolio of highest insider ownership.
    18 Mar 2014, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Hi Adam - nice to see you!

     

    For the discussion on the last chapter about DGI vs. value high-yield vs. small/midcap growth...

     

    Adam's instablogs on his experiment have excellent info. I thought we might want to incorporate into the discussion...

     

    What had caught my attention was his finding that it's harder to find solid high-yield companies, than DGI, which makes DGI a good vehicle for some people.
    18 Mar 2014, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    Adam,

     

    interesting info and as anyone can see your presentation took a lot of work to put together..

     

    If i may make a simple suggestion.. perhaps putting the info on a spreadsheet , for easier comparisons would be helpful to the readers.

     

    U can use a free program called 'screen capture' which takes a picture of that spreadsheet, and that can then be imported into your dialogue..

     

    I use it on my blog , it works very well...

     

    good luck !
    19 Mar 2014, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Adam Galas
    , contributor
    Comments (460) | Send Message
     
    Thats a good idea
    19 Mar 2014, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    Nice idea Adam. I find that the high yielders don't go up in price as much, as the DGI stocks. Sometimes chasing yield can be dangerous too. I do own some, to get my over all return higher.

     

    (PTY) (PSEC) (MAIN) (OAK) (ARI) (TCAP) (TCRD) etc. (MAIN) and (OAK) are doing great, (PTY) is good too. Being patient with the others.
    19 Mar 2014, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Sinedo" posted this on Chapter 10. I'm copying here so it's easier to discuss.

     

    "Dividends compound and "Albert Einstein when asked what he considered to be the most powerful force in the universe answered: Compound interest!
    Qualified divvy tax rate is 15% Federal (not bad)
    Most people don't realize that dividend paying stocks are "loved and hated" at different times, as WS rotates the sectors, their bread and butter business.

     

    Finally, dividend stocks generally have a limited down side, in most cases.
    Regards, "

     

    Sinedo's a contact, who's been very insightful on the (LINE) short squeeze & MLP workings.
    20 Mar 2014, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . From the divy topic in Chapt 10...

     

    Tack
    My question: Can you point me to the studies that show the better over all returns with dividend issues?

     

    Reply: <<" These are studies I had read over the years, ">>

     

    Yep, makes sense. Very helpful though to know it's been based off of studies.
    20 Mar 2014, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Sinedo

     

    I never knew Einstein thought that! I always thought it was viruses.
    20 Mar 2014, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Yair

     

    You'd posted:
    "What bothers me is a lot of people will buy any DG stock because well they "outperform" any they get sold on this idea that dividend stocks are the best no matter what price you pay.
    It just reminds me of all the people piling into mREITS in 2011, "but its paying me 12%......" "

     

    You've got key points! Adam comments in his experience blog, that finding quality high-yield is harder than with DGI. Takes more skill, & knowing when to avoid mREITS or other sectors...

     

    DGI has growth in the name. Got to get them at a price with room for growth.
    20 Mar 2014, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    Is commercial real estate making a comeback?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Mar 2014, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    (ARI) might start doing better if that's the case. In the long run, we should see some commercial start to do better. But there are way too many strip malls here in NJ….way too many. In NJ you never really know what town you're in, because it's just one continuous strip mall! Some towns put up a sign. This is in the congested part, any county close to NYC.
    19 Mar 2014, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    LOMH,

     

    - simple answer - "yes"
    20 Mar 2014, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    Dave Crosetti is starting a series on DGI investing. It will get into the nuts & bolts, this is just the intro

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Mar 2014, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    L you asked about "stocks with a story." (SCTY) is one that comes to mind. It's taking a little hit today. I've been slowly buying it. Might add a few shares today.

     

    This is Musk's other company. IMO it's a good one.
    19 Mar 2014, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    Another favorite story stock of mine is (SBUX). Years ago, I scoffed at it, wondering who in their right mind would pay $5 for a cup of joe. Had a great opportunity to buy it at $10….but wasn't smart enough to do that a few years ago.

     

    The CEO is fantastic. He's invested in Teavana, which will do very well. (SBUX) is popular all over the world. They are buying coffee farms, to improve the quality of the bean & keep their supply chain safe.

     

    Now I buy the beans at Costco & brew my own at home. Really good coffee.
    19 Mar 2014, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    After today, (FSLR) is looking a lot better than (SCTY).
    19 Mar 2014, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    I don't drink coffee. Was so glad they added hot cider, so when my friends drag me...

     

    (FSLR) is up 20%. (SCTY) down 6%. I liked Solar City's ad that came in the mail.
    19 Mar 2014, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Thoughts on the Fed statement? Good stuff for the market?

     

    Financials are loving this... utilities not...
    19 Mar 2014, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4441) | Send Message
     
    REITs also seem to not be big fans of the statement.
    19 Mar 2014, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    EMs too not a fan. BDCs won't love it at first. Wonder how long it takes to settle to become a buying opportunity...
    19 Mar 2014, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4441) | Send Message
     
    Good question... Also, the sounds of the PM people's "trucks backing up" is almost deafening. :)
    19 Mar 2014, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    They're thinking of buying gold with this? I was thinking of (DUST). The dollar spiked up, so gold went down. But I doubt dollars going to then fly back down.
    19 Mar 2014, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    Jbt,
    those trucks seem to have blown a gasket -- :)
    19 Mar 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4441) | Send Message
     
    They seem to have a lot of miles on them... Mostly in reverse. ;)
    19 Mar 2014, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    PS We'll have to do some long term investing, take a little profits, and pay them for mufflers for the noise :).
    19 Mar 2014, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    IMO there wasn't much change but there was the suggestion they will raise rates earlier. I think they will stay data dependent. Even if they raise the FF rate, if inflation numbers remain low I have a hard time seeing their raising rates having much impact on the long end - which is the most important for the housing market and the economy.
    20 Mar 2014, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    dd:

     

    Exactly.

     

    This is just Taper Talk Hysteria II. You'd think folks would have learned from the first go-round.

     

    Rates are only going to rise, or be set higher, if we see expansion of economic growth rates, which starts to get reflected in inflationary demand. All the rest is merely rhetoric to show the markets that the Fed can flex its muscles.
    20 Mar 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T, DD,

     

    "Taper Talk Hysteria II" Can we patent that? :)

     

    Is this why BDCs are still taking hits down (temporarily I assume)?

     

    It's the same as last time... the Fed's not going to raise rates until they see the data (inflation) supporting it. They said so point blank. They delayed tapering till the data supported it, even when it was expected sooner.
    20 Mar 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    Nothing i didn't expect..

     

    I am of the belief that there is no real change in the fed's interest rate policy, however the markets aren't agreeing as the initial knee jerk reaction has interest rates moving higher 10 yr up to 2.75,

     

    I wouldn't read anything into the initial equity market reaction since we are coming off a 26 point gain in the S & P in the last 2 days ....

     

    19 Mar 2014, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Signals to me an improving economy...
    19 Mar 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » cwinn

     

    That was one of Yellen's goals, to communicate that. My .02
    19 Mar 2014, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    looks like air to me
    19 Mar 2014, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Y.

     

    Stale air ?
    19 Mar 2014, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, Y

     

    I agree. It's the same policy they've had all along. The shift to inflation data is good. Gives them room to raise rates when the economy is finally moving. Same as they waited a few months past expectations to taper and it made all the difference.
    19 Mar 2014, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Last chapter we "dissed" Cramer, CNBC... any channel you use to listen to these announcements?

     

    I tried FOX but they were very political about the possible "negative effects of QE."
    19 Mar 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    I watch CNBC , I know there are a lot of talking heads there, BUT i look at most of them as contrarian indicators -- LOL,, so I selectively watch & listen

     

    Cramer has an occasional good idea but he is a typical 'cheerleader' type -- and changes direction like the wind.

     

    They do have on a few good investment managers, that have been on the right side of the market with their ideas and calls , so i wait to listen to them..

     

    On a daily basis ,, Josh Brown is now on more often,, & in my view he is a level headed , tell it like it is guy..

     

    The Najarain brothers often excellent advice and have also been correct on the markets. Joe Terranova also -- he is pretty sharp ..

     

    I don't like Fox , for what u just stated , too much political nonsense. I have watched Bloomberg , but for the most part not impressed..
    19 Mar 2014, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . FG

     

    Thanks!! I've read Josh Brown - good value. I'll keep an ear for Njarain brothers & Terranova.

     

    I wish there was an email notification system, that'd tell me to turn it on when they get to a topic of interest... too noisy to keep on in the background.
    19 Mar 2014, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Reminder - Quadruple witching day tomorrow - Friday, March 21. Sometimes the market becomes very erratic around this date.
    20 Mar 2014, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Good reminder -- sometimes for day trading, it's got wild rides that are good.
    20 Mar 2014, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    If you have financials stay with them , I still like (C), (BAC), (JPM) ,

     

    from the investment bankers (GS), (LAZ) lazard is undervalued here.

     

    I also noticed recent activity which caught my eye on (MSFT)
    Boring to some , value and stability for others

     

    http://bit.ly/1epwQSX
    20 Mar 2014, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    FWIW, I wouldn't touch MSFT with a barge pole. It's selling at fourteen-year highs and had a huge run-up in the last year, all without any notable changes in earnings. And, their forward outlook is highly questionable, as Windows becomes passé and iOS and Chrome eat their lunch from both ends.
    20 Mar 2014, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    Enjoyed your article F&G. The new CEO is kicking butt…which the company sure needed.

     

    I'm long (MSFT)
    20 Mar 2014, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, Tack

     

    I've been very hesitant on (MSFT). If the new CEO performs - takes it in new directions and gets better OS releases, then it can do very well.

     

    It's been too sure of itself and dictating to customers and result is -- people looked elsewhere. I'm considering a mac. I just helped someone who's new computer's CD/DVD drive wouldn't work. Turned out MS decided they're passe, so they don't have OS support for them. They come in the machine, they work, but only after you download 3rd party freeware. And it's not something with a big label so you're clued in. People are trying to return their broken new computers...

     

    As a programmer who's written OS code -- this OS drives me batty. There are SO MANY tools and methods missing!!!!!! Give me a break, there isn't even a built in side-by-side file comparison tool. Or filelists in folders comparison tool. Clipboard is great, but why hasn't that been expanded ever?? Instead they invest in rearranging how things work on the macro design -- so they can "move into the new directions" -- and basically tell the customer what the customer wants. ...and it's not what the customer wants!!!
    20 Mar 2014, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    I've been using Apple laptops for several years now. Wouldn't think of using anything else.

     

    The old Windows is just so out of date. They really should junk it.

     

    Microsoft needs to invest in new things, get the company going again. They make a huge amount of money, have tons of cash….so there is a good chance the company will turn around.

     

    Look what's happening to Oracle and Cisco, 2 other old tech companies. Their CEOs need to go too. That is holding them back, IMO.

     

    IBM is trying hard to get into the cloud game.

     

    I am long (MSFT) and (IBM) for now.
    20 Mar 2014, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    As long-time Windows user, who has now used a Chromebook for a year or two, I can say I'd never even consider the purchase of another Windows machine. The speed, elegance and security of Chrome's approach leaves Windows for dead. And, because Chrome is so much more efficient than Window's bloated code, it doesn't require behemoth processors, the over-commitment to same, which has also damaged Intel, as ARM has eaten their lunch.

     

    The era of local software and files is dwindling fast. Windows is in much bigger trouble than many imagine.

     

    20 Mar 2014, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1111) | Send Message
     
    > I can say I'd never even consider the purchase of another Windows machine

     

    We have Windows, OSX and a Chrome computer in our household.

     

    I have to say, the Chromebook is a very intriguing unit, and it's a great computer...for my girlfriend. Still, as of today, my Windows system and its applications are irreplaceable. If I were buying a system tomorrow, it would also have to be a Windows unit.
    20 Mar 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    L,
    I agree with all of that , since I also have an IT network tech certifications from CSCO & MSFT..and have seen the shortcomings in the OS for a while.

     

    However, thru all of that, the Free cash flow from MSFT is 10% , 20% of the company's value is represented by cash..

     

    And I will now admit that opens the door for--- why don't they do something with that cash..

     

    Maybe that's why I like AAPL, also...

     

    :)

     

    Also, I don't see these types of stocks getting ripped apart and gutted if we get a nasty correction..
    20 Mar 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    d:

     

    I have found that there's hardly an application that I undertake that doesn't have a web-based analogue. And, as I spend 95% of my time on web-based sites and communications, I find that I use my Windows-based software almost not at all. The biggest Chrome impediment, that keeps my Windows desktop running, is that Chrome cannot run scanners. If they fix that, I may convert my desktop to a Chromebox.

     

    What I love about my Samsung Chromebook the most is that it weighs 2.5 lbs and has no moving parts at all, no disks, no fans, and it runs for 8+ hours. A travel delight.
    20 Mar 2014, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » dnorm

     

    Mac has windows emulators. That's what I'm counting on to keep the application functionality. I need to check more, whether it's solid enough to keep me happy.
    20 Mar 2014, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1111) | Send Message
     
    >What I love about my Samsung Chromebook the most is that it weighs 2.5 lbs and has no moving parts at all, no disks, no fans, and it runs for 8+ hours. A travel delight.

     

    That's the model she has. It is a great little system, as you say. Another advantage is having everything tied to your Google account; in the case where you have something go wrong and need to restore the OS, everything magically reappears on reinstallation (as it does in the iOS system). Having done clear Windows re-installs for decades, it's pretty sweet.

     

    It's definitely the future. For 90% of users it's all they'll ever need. Admittedly, I'm an almost-power-user. As such, I just haven't been able to replace everything...yet.
    20 Mar 2014, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1111) | Send Message
     
    >Mac has windows emulators.

     

    I run full boot camp Windows 7 on my MacBook. I dig the Apple hardware, but OSX is just okay for me. It's nice to have both, honestly.

     

    But, I also think the free Linux distributions are going to catch fire eventually. Ubuntu is a pretty good experience.
    20 Mar 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    d:

     

    You hit on one of Windows' sorest points. I have a desktop that has Win7 and probably 40 locals programs and apps installed. Now, the operating system has some bug/corruption in it that cannot be alleviated, except by a complete virginal reinstall. That mans hours and hours of work, installing Win7, doing hundreds of Win7 upgrades, then reinstalling all the programs. It's such a hassle that I just continue to live with the current bugs, as long as things generally work.

     

    Chrome, as you found, makes all that go away. Nothing to reinstall, nothing to risk losing. Elegant and simple. I'll kill my Windows desktop dead at the earliest possible moment.

     

    By the way, did you see that Asus is about to launch a $179 Chromebox that's the size of a pack of cigarettes and can either be a desktop or can be used to stream directly to TV any video service in existence, not just limited subsets, like Roku, etc? And, you can surf any web page on your TV, too.

     

    Chrome is going to cause big trouble for lots of existing services and products.
    20 Mar 2014, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - dnorm

     

    "I run full boot camp Windows 7 on my MacBook. I dig the Apple hardware, but OSX is just okay for me. It's nice to have both, honestly."

     

    Good to know!

     

    -----

     

    Reading this thread, I feel like I'm back sitting down at a lunch table at IBM :). One thing I missed when I left, was how bright and how many ideas people had. Used to make me feel like an idiot, but missed it so much once I was out in "the real world."

     

    It's one reason (though I'm out of IBM), still looking at them for the long term. Though I'm not sure the atmosphere has held up...
    20 Mar 2014, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    Ouch ! -- ;)

     

    I'll take the breakout from a 13 yr basing period as a sign of better times ahead.

     

    Similar to the S & P breakout from its 13 yr base that has now propelled the market to new highs..

     

    One mans trash may be another's treasure , We'll see how it plays out .. :)
    20 Mar 2014, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    It's just that the words, "value and stability" caught my eye. It's hard for me to see where the value lies, both in examining earnings and in looking at the practical realities of the competitive environment they now face. Now, if you want to say the a breakout represents a nice opportunity to do a carefully-watched mo-mo trade, then, I have no problem. But, at these levels and, given the outlook, I wouldn't be putting MSFT on "set it and forget it" mode.
    20 Mar 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    T,
    fair enough, but there isn't an equity position that I have that is on set it and forget it :)
    20 Mar 2014, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the market is continuing to digest the Fed news. However when interest rates do rise, that will signal a reviving economy.

     

    I listen to CNBC a lot. One of my favorite guys is Ron Insana

     

    http://cnb.cx/1epCnZH

     

    One way you can get more from the people you like on CNBC is to follow them on twitter. Or just check the CNBC.com website. Too much info out there….it get's overwhelming sometimes.
    20 Mar 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    "However when interest rates do rise, that will signal a reviving economy."

     

    I agree with the statement and maybe this is splitting hairs, but I feel that when rates do rise it won't be because of a reviving economy, it would be from one that is starting to get a little ahead of itself. The reviving will have already been in prior motion.
    20 Mar 2014, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cwinn

     

    Interesting point. Hope Tack or others with economic insights, comments...
    20 Mar 2014, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Not much to say. The economy has been recovering steadily since 2009. Only if loan formation and overall demand start to pressure the supply side and labor, leading to inflation, will we see any meaningful change in rates.

     

    As long as we keep growing at 2-3%, not much will happen.
    20 Mar 2014, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    "As long as we keep growing at 2-3%, not much will happen."

     

    With the current administration and what I'm deem to be their anti-business atmosphere, I'm not sure when/if will see growth eclipse these numbers.
    20 Mar 2014, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    CW:

     

    Without debating all the politics of the current administration, and whether or not the economy can or should grow faster, one ironic benefit, at least as I see it, of the "so-so" economy is that they attract less exuberance and overinvestment because everybody's bellyaching so much, so we get the low volumes and low participation rates we have seen in the markets ever since 2009.

     

    Ironically, this kind of measured, and constantly doubted, behavior can be sustained a very long time, versus exuberant booms and associated euphoric market-buying sprees.
    20 Mar 2014, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    The scenario you just laid out would be the "icing on top of the cake for the "bulls".....
    20 Mar 2014, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (3004) | Send Message
     
    Lomah, the reason I think April could see a good dip is we may get some mediocre earnings numbers, as 1st Q 2014 starts reporting. That will create an opportunity. The opposite could be true, if earnings are good we see a bump up in April.

     

    There's an old saying, "sell in May & go away" but do come back around September. The market typically sells off over the summer. This could be because so many people go on vacation. In 2013, we had 2 major dips, one in April and another in July/August.

     

    20 Mar 2014, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Something to Debate:

     

    Given alternatives, particularly Europe, how can the US 10 year yield rise much more?

     

    http://bloom.bg/1b1LnFr
    20 Mar 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Why does a low interest rate in Europe mean rates in the US can't rise?
    20 Mar 2014, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2752) | Send Message
     
    Money travels cross borders. Whereas a large spread between Europe and the US may have attracted money into Spain or Italy previously, is it now worth the risk to buy those bonds rather than the US? or France at a big discount?
    20 Mar 2014, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    I never thought is was worth the risk. Discussed this with retired folks so thought the same. There's forex risk. EU keeps rescuing members so they're seen with risk, & took longer to start recovery.

     

    Americans even today are "American-centric." Finanical Advisors & bond funds may go overseas. Straight bonds... depends how much is traditionally very wealthy who'd go across borders... or retail.
    20 Mar 2014, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10524) | Send Message
     
    Here's a question to the group,, If you had no money in the market and were looking to start to set up a position, keeping it simple ,, what 3 stocks ,bonds. or whatever , would you start with now..

     

    Money managers are constantly faced with new money from a client that has no present exposure to the market..

     

    lets also assume you have a 10 yr time horizon..

     

    I'm interested in hearing your thoughts
    20 Mar 2014, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Without regard to broader diversification issues, if someone asked me the three most undervalued opportunities, presently, I'd have to look for an investment(s) in: 1) emerging markets, 2) commodities, and 3) energy.
    20 Mar 2014, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16502) | Send Message
     
    Time for a new thread!
    20 Mar 2014, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9077) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here it is - Chapter 12!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Mar 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
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