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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #12 248 comments
    Mar 20, 2014 2:18 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    This is Chapter #12. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments.

    Here's a link to the prior, #11: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/2756713-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-11?v=1395337587&source=tracking_notify

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long IWM, DIA, SPY, MU, LINE, CVX, PSEC, TCAP.

    Additional disclosure: ...and many more...

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (248)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good topics started in the last chapter!

     

    ...bring them on forward to here...
    20 Mar, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » To newcomers -- this is chapter 12. We're now posting in Chapter 13 here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Mar, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    F&G asked a compelling question in the last chapter.

     

    "What would you invest in today, if you have a 10 year time frame?"

     

    I would buy at least 20 different investments, looking for no more than 2 to 5 % in each position. If you are talking about $100,000 that's $5,000 in each position.

     

    A bank, (BAC) (JPM) (WFC)
    An industrial (GE) or (UTX) or (MMM)
    a telecom (VZ)
    A tech stock, (IBM) and (MSFT)
    A healthcare company (UNH), (JNJ)
    a drug stock (WAG) or (CVS)
    ***(my favorite stock is (MCK) but it's up a lot. headed higher, IMO…and a buy & hold forever type of company. Only buy if it dips, which it never does….oh well ; )

     

    A consumer staple food company (BGS) (PF) (GIS) (HSY)
    Other consumer staples like (KMB) (CL) (CLX)
    A tobacco company (MO) or (LO)
    a toy company (MAT)
    aerospace (BA) (LMT) (NOC)
    a bond ETF (PTY)
    consider some Reits like (MAIN) (OHI) (O)
    financial investment companies like (BX) (KKR) (PSEC)
    a beverage company (PEP)
    maybe a restaurant (DNKN) or (SBUX) (CBRL)

     

    For speculation, (PCLN) (WYN) (WDAY) (SCTY) (GOOG) (SWKS) (CMG)

     

    If you are really speculative, (TSLA)

     

    Focus on going into the market slowly, buying companies with low PE ratios/low valuation * on market dips * so you get good entry points. Except for the high growth companies, which have very high PE ratios. They must have earnings growth that make up for that.

     

    Never go all in at once. The market corrects all the time, if it's a really good dip then buy more.

     

    If the investor is adverse to risk, look for low beta stocks.

     

    Not all stocks go up or down at the same time. Dividends help lessen the pain when the market is contracting. Look only at companies that will be here 10 years from now. Especially focus on companies with 25+ years of increasing dividends.

     

    These ideas are for investors like me, buy & hold until it makes sense to sell. If you make gains in the speculative stocks, then it would make sense to take some off the table. But hang on to the DGI stocks, they just get better with time.
    20 Mar, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    My 2 best retail stocks are (M) Macy's & (FL) Footlocker. Retail stocks should only be bought if the PE ratio is ridiculously low, like they were when I bought them. If you choose a stock from this sector, do lots of research.

     

    All the stocks I listed I do own….some are at high valuations right now, so wait until they dip.

     

    There's always a good company that is beat up right now. Financials are going to head higher this year, time to load up on them if you haven't already. (BA) (MAT) (COH) (IBM) (JPM) (LO) (MO) (M) (MSFT) (VZ) (T) are all valued low now. I'd be going into these names today, adding more on any dip. (BGS) has been beaten up recently, and pays a good dividend.
    20 Mar, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    I was trying to list my stocks that have done well, so left out the oil sector. I would be buying (COP) first, then (XOM). Take a look at (KMP) - talk about "beat up."

     

    As always, whatever you are buying, do your research. Don't just buy because "I say so."

     

    Best of luck….actually got me thinking about buying more shares of some of these stocks, some of them are really at cheap valuations. Why didn't I buy more (BAC)? It's ups a lot today.
    20 Mar, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    Another sector I overlooked is utilities. They are getting beat up, pounded, and thrown overboard. So maybe you should look them over. If Con Ed (ED) ever stops falling, buy it. (WEC) and (SCG) are also worth buying. Here's the problem. Most investors think traditional utilities could go down because of solar, wind etc. Now I don't think (ED) will ever go under. Eventually they will have to start partnering with solar or do something to stop the stock losses.

     

    And buy some solar stocks yourself, to make sure you are covered. (FSLR) is up huge, maybe buy it if it ever comes back down.

     

    This is why I don't have more than 2% in any one position, except a few like (PTY). So I don't lose my shirt when they start to tank.

     

    The 2% rule works really well once you have over $100,000. Up until then, $5,000 in any one position is okay. If it's a tremendous company like (LMT) or (SBUX) then you can double up.

     

    What about deciding what to do with a stock that grows out of its 2% position? I have this problem with several stocks. (MCK) (LMT) (TSCO) (SBUX) have all done really well. I find it very hard to sell, because I believe all these companies are going to continue to make $ over the coming decades. What if you had bought (LMT) back in the 1990s? Not selling any of it would make you very wealthy today.
    20 Mar, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    F&G - If I had to pick just three items, I'd choose three etf's: kre, iyt & acwx.

     

    The regional banking and transportation etf's as a proxy for the US economy and the acwx etf for the rest of the world.

     

    I currently own none of them.
    20 Mar, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    BSF,

     

    Thanks for the options you listed. Always interesting to see people's portfolios and thoughts how they constructed them. I'm surprised MCD is not listed.

     

    You wrote: "some of them are really at cheap valuations". Which ones? I do not see many at cheap valuations.
    20 Mar, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » astarr66

     

    That's my stopper getting in right now... they're cheap compared to hopefully 10 years from now... but not using direct valuating.
    20 Mar, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    astarr, when you look at the price, PE ratio, earnings, and as much other stuff as you can, the ones I think are priced ok to buy now are

     

    (BA) (MAT) (COH) (IBM) (JPM) (LO) (MO) (M) (MSFT) (VZ) (T)
    (COP) (XOM) (KMP)

     

    Some utilities are beat up too, but that whole sector is doing badly now. (ED) (WEC) (SCG) are ones I own, I've lost a lot of $ on (ED). So be careful, whatever you do invest in. Do lots of research too.

     

    I only buy stocks that I intend to hold for a long time….buy a few shares, then add more shares slowly over time.

     

    However, I do think we are going to see some more market dips. So go in carefully. I use MerrillEdge & get free trades every month. I think Lomah found out you need a balance of $35,000 to qualify for free trades….this includes all balances in Merrill & Bank of America.

     

    Here's an excellent article by Chuck Carnevale just out today

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    If I only had 5 stocks to buy to start out, then I would buy (COP), (MO), (T) or (VZ), (BAC), and (IBM). Maybe just $1,000 of each to start. Then add to positions as time passes, and initiate new positions in other stocks. Plus (PTY) whenever it goes to under $17.50, maybe to park cash. But be careful with this. Sometimes it's best to keep cash as cash. I always have cash in my portfolios, and a huge emergency fund. But I am a very careful, conservative investor with no debt.

     

    I may sound like I buy lots of speculative stocks, but the reality is they are less than 3% of my total portfolios. I like to keep 10% cash & then that emergency fund, it's about 3 years of living expenses in cash.

     

    If you like dividend growth investing, check out David Fish's profile & his CCC list of companies.

     

    Ah yes….(MCD). Well, I haven't made any money in it but it is a long term hold for me. Yes, you could buy some. Mix it up with (DNKN) & (SBUX). I've made a lot of money on those 2. But not yet on (MCD). Maybe this year.

     

    astarr, it took my husband and I over 30 years of saving, but we have managed to build a very nice portfolio for retirement. I believe you can mix it up, use ETFs, Reits, mutual funds if you are concerned about owning individual stocks.

     

    Looking back I wish from the beginning I had been as involved as I am now in our financial planning. We had 401k plans, bought and sold several homes, cars etc. but never really concentrated on retirement until I took over around 2007. Before that, I dabbled with buying individual stocks. Lost lots of money in the dot busted crash because I didn't know anything about researching a stock. Now with Seeking Alpha, that has changed for the better.
    20 Mar, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for a wonderfully detailed reply BSF.

     

    Why would you maybe use PTY to park cash?
    22 Mar, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - astarr66

     

    When BSF bought (PTY) it'd taken a big hit from the "end of ZIRP" worries last summer 2013 & was first recovering. Great buy.

     

    I recently looked into parking in (PTY) or other Allianz/PIMCO high yield fixed income CEFs. Solid looing good returns, but decided to pass based on concerns from info gathered from articles.

     

    If my info or conclusions are off - anyone is welcome to comment on them!

     

    - As bonds normalize, investors who left bonds for other high yield that "looks safe" will leave these instruments, at least for the shorter term. (The use floating rates, so longer term, should be fine.)

     

    - Allianz/PIMCO's fixed income use leveraging making their NAV more volatile. And are more risky than equities in a downturn.

     

    - Great idea in 2009 when banking fears prevailed. Then ZIRP gave little choice. They're not likely to have same super run they had under ZIRP.

     

    - Their NAV's are at a high premium right now. So valuations seem stretched.

     

    - PTY is heavily weighted toward banking industry (not a good or bad point.)
    23 Mar, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - astarr66

     

    A few quotes that got my attention:

     

    "When bond funds can offer 10% to 12% market yields and show 250% to 350% total returns over the last four years (since 2009), then the perception that the Allianz/PIMCO fixed-income CEFs can do no wrong is at a point where it could be looked upon as a contrarian indicator."

     

    "PHK has been transformed to a black box fund engaged in a lot of leveraged derivative trading in order to make up for the chronic shortage of investment income vs. its inflated distribution rate.
    As long as they make good bets they might succeed in that but take a look at 2011 when they made a bad bet on US Treasury yields and you see the ugly flip side."

     

    "When the market drops, funds that have higher premiums over NAV and stocks that have the highest PE ratios, tend to fall the hardest."

     

    A buying viewpoint:
    "was under the impression that Pimco's PFL fund was still predominately a Floating Rate Bank Loan fund. Therefore, in a raising rate environment they would be continually raising the rates on their loans. Therefore their performance in a raise rate scenario should be strong. "
    23 Mar, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    I would call my views on (PTY), instincts too :). Only here, I'm less sure I'm assessing this well. Do you have any insights to add?
    25 Mar, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Fear & Greed

     

    I just noticed you started publishing articles on SA! Congratulations!!!

     

    So I can say, I knew you when :).

     

    ...I'm following you, but these didn't get emailed to me, wonder why. Of course post links to whatever you want!!
    20 Mar, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    L,
    i decided to give it a try, :)

     

    All i can say its pretty difficult to get an article approved by the editors here , much more than I anticipated..

     

    U don't have to worry about "knowing me when" LOL - i don't plan on leaving the daily scene here and if the strict guidelines continue , I may leave the article writing to others.. :)

     

    Instablog gets my thoughts on paper and a way of documenting my ideas, .. I like to go back and see where I was right and where i was wrong..

     

    :)
    20 Mar, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Seems to me I've heard that before about working with SA editors...

     

    Glad to know you'll be around, of course :)!

     

    Congrats again!
    23 Mar, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    (CHL) on sale.
    21 Mar, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    YG:

     

    Yes, it is. The question remains whether there's any near-term bottom in sight. But, this issue is definitely on my radar. The yield alone is now over 5%.
    21 Mar, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the heads up. I just initiated a small position @ 41.59. Feels like exhaustion and "get me out I can't take it anymore". Although it looks like it could get to $40.

     

    However, if you're counting on that yield, it could be in question. While they have raised the divy each year, their smaller than expected profits might cut into that. My guess is they will announce their semi-annual div next week. According to M* stats, in the past 5 years they announced it around March 24 three times, and around April 8th twice.
    21 Mar, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    You branching out from Brazil and Chile to China stocks for your EM candidates?
    21 Mar, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    No, just have that single CHL on my radar.
    21 Mar, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I opened a small position today
    21 Mar, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    (CHL) cant get more oversold than it shows today.

     

    I haven't followed , if it didn't have a div , i wouldn't go near it..

     

    If that div is in question, next support 38 then maybe 34 ?
    21 Mar, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    next support should be $40. At this rate it will hit it Monday.
    21 Mar, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone know an etf for the total Nasdaq composite - not just the top 100 like qqq? Thanks!
    21 Mar, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    Sold a lot of stocks this am, taking profits & reducing anything with an absurd PE ratio. This article by Carnevale got me to review all my positions

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I even sold half my (MCK), (LMT), (SBUX) Starbucks PE ratio has gotten to almost 600. If you read Chuck's article, he uses the example of HD to show how much damage an overvalued stock can do to your portfolio.

     

    He also discusses Citibank. It was $570 in late 2006. Fell to under $10 by 2009. If you aren't diversified, a calamity like that could wipe out your portfolio. Who knew Citi would fall that hard, and still not be recovered? Look at how many companies have not only recovered since the financial crisis, but have gone even higher. Not Citi, so sometimes just sitting on a bad position waiting for it to come back is not a good idea.
    21 Mar, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    After pruning my positions, now it's time to sit back and wait to see how the next quarter's earnings go. While the market seesaws waiting for better earnings & economic outlook, dividends will keep coming in.

     

    There are many stocks with low valuations. (VALE) is still cheap, (BUD) & (STZ) also have very low PE ratios right now. (COP) (XOM) undervalued. (VZ) and (T) extremely low PE ratios.

     

    However, the market will likely go lower until some good news/earnings come in.
    21 Mar, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    The major banks are cheap. (JPM) & (BAC) , broke to new highs this week, with little or no overhead resistance.

     

    (BAC) & (C) are selling under book
    21 Mar, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    F&G, planning to add to my bank positions as it looks like these stocks will go up this year. (VALE) is up from it's low.

     

    Now that interest rates really will go up, any of the consumer staple stocks with high PE ratios are getting hammered. I sold over $100,000 worth of stocks this am. Hope I sold enough….it was hard with some of them. I decided if the PE ratio was over 17 or 18, earnings were ho-hum then it had to go or at least get trimmed. Took profits on anything that had profits. (NOC) I decided to keep all my shares, the PE is very low & this is one company that will continue to do well, along with (LMT). Now with Russia rattling sabers, defense spending certainly won't go down. In fact (NOC) on a dip is a buy for anyone out there looking for a great company.

     

    Starbux was out of control….even Chipotle has a lower PE ratio. I think what saves me is by going into a position slowly, it avoids making too big of a mistake. If the stock tanks, then I have time to buy later at a lower cost point.

     

    It's hard to take profits (at least for me). But it was time, today was a gift.

     

    We are going to see a really big dip soon. Keep your powder dry ; )
    21 Mar, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I think you are better off with some smaller banks than the majors.
    21 Mar, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    any suggestions?

     

    I would be very cautious with local banks. They just can't compete on the same level as say JP Morgan. Some local banks in the US are now doing badly, like (HCBK) a past "Cramer fave" that has not done well. Check out their earnings….horrible. I'd rather own (JPM) or (BAC) or even (WFC). But if you find a great small bank, let us know ; )

     

    You know I actually watch Cramer to know what NOT to buy??? I think some of his advice is ok, but when he talks up a stock….watch out.
    21 Mar, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    Yair,

     

    Just read this article

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and found the comments to be excellent. SouthGent (and Tack) made several very informative comments. SouthGent had a link to his regional bank picks. I've followed him for a long time, he really knows his stuff….so his list will have some good regional bank picks.

     

    http://bit.ly/1f218fa

     

    If you scroll down, SouthGent lists his regional bank picks in a table. Looks like a good list to explore. He came up with this list researching regional banks that fared well during the 2008 financial crisis.

     

    Another commenter talked about buying low value, out of favor stocks. These would be in the energy and banking sector now.
    22 Mar, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Truth is valuing banks is hard at least for me, and I'm a bit lazy...

     

    I just own (IAT)
    22 Mar, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    What an amazing market! If you look at a weekly chart of the S&P500 it looks like market has done nothing for the past few weeks - but there was an amazing amount going on under the surface.

     

    I wish the funds would give me a heads up when they decide they're going to rotate into different sectors. Anyone in high tech (including biotech) momo stocks were killed this week, while those in steel, financials, energy and old tech did quite well. I wonder how long the value over expensive growth is going to last.

     

    The China pmi issued over the weekend will be the focus Monday in the absence of geopolitical garbage. My guess is expectations for China are so low that anything less than bad will be greeted positively.

     

    I didn't do much today. Bot a little chl (thanks, Yair) and sold some calls against a long held Hal position. I was tempted to lighten on the steel (x, aks) bot two weeks ago since they're up 10% - all this week - but sat on my hands. If China is bad I'll regret that. Earlier in the week I bot some Drilquip (drq) - the first foray into that stock although I've had my eye on it for awhile. It pays no dividend but has great growth, heavy institutional ownership and a cash rich balance sheet.

     

    21 Mar, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    I don't trust anything China reports, says or does….they cannot be trusted. It's a "command economy" so who the h*ll knows what is really going on over there.

     

    No wonder Chinese company stocks are tying to list on US exchanges, and not Chinese. But then I still don't trust them.

     

    The poverty level is still extraordinarily high. Then there are the few at the top, connected to the gov't that are rich. In reality, they do not have a huge middle class consuming products….you might see that in Shanghai & certainly in Hong Kong. But the vast masses are still poor & not buying French champagne & perfume.

     

    Read this about how China controls the news about how wealthy their leaders are

     

    http://reut.rs/1gQV0XB

     

    Did you know rich Chinese prefer to shop in the US? So luxury companies are opening more stores for them over here. Maybe because it's less conspicuous to buy here? The rich are trying to get out of China. I wonder what kind of place it will be, 20 years from now when the rich have all left.
    21 Mar, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    DD, sorry didn't mean to be so negative about China.

     

    And thanks for the (DRQ) tip. Looks like a better choice than (SDRL) and the projected earnings look very good.
    21 Mar, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I would just have you consider that South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, all had what you would call "controlled" economies at this stage of there development.

     

    Those were some of the best stock markets to be invested in.
    22 Mar, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    I consider that not to be true. Those countries have had free markets for 60 years, and HKG for 100 years, until China took back control. The Govt. has left Hong Kong businesses pretty much alone, because the businesses produce lots of revenue, but Governments can't resist intruding, and one HKG telephone company stock I've owned for 20 years became a target because they made "too much" money. China stocks need a risk premium, and should not be compared to others.
    Regards,
    22 Mar, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Shouldn't they also get a premium for the growth they get?
    23 Mar, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Question:

     

    Dividends are paid by short holders...
    But wouldn't they as holders be paid the dividends by the stocks? So it costs them nothing?

     

    On the (LINE) short raid, there's maybe shorts from last summer dying to get out. So my question is whether it'd be costing them dividends this whole time.
    21 Mar, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Short sellers hold nothing, but cash. They borrow somebody else's shares with the promise to replace them at a later date. They pay the dividends for those owners.
    21 Mar, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    So if they've borrowed someone's shares, wouldn't they be the one's paid dividends by the company?

     

    Surely the company still pays dividends even if the shares are short borrowed. And surely the owner of the shares doesn't get the dividend from the company and from the short borrower. I must be missing something basic here.
    21 Mar, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    The short seller has borrowed, then sold, the original shares. The new owner gets the dividends from the company, and the original owner gets made whole by the short seller.
    21 Mar, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Great answer. Shorts borrow the stock to sell and drive your stock lower. Unless you instruct your Broker not to loan your shares to shorts, they will "loan" them, without telling you. They have to be in a margin account, or have Calls against them, to keep them from working against you.
    You can instruct your Broker not to loan your shares, but I have no confidence that can be enforced, and I believe Brokers are sometimes involved in the shorting scheme. I don't think that is illegal, though I don't consider it ethical. "Sharks do what sharks do."
    Regards,
    22 Mar, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - sinedo

     

    Pretty sure in the margin account agreement fine print, was that your shares can be loaned. Only thing I'm not sure is whether that's true if you don't buy anything on margin while in that account. Yep, the agreement words made it obvious that I was entering a shark pool :).
    23 Mar, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    Thanks. I get it :). The short seller is, ahem SELLING, the shares to a 2nd investor.

     

    I found on investopedia (for anyone else looking):
    "When you short a stock, you are borrowing the stock from an investor or broker, then selling those shares on the open market to a second investor. "
    http://bit.ly/1lYq4Fw
    21 Mar, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    General question for you guys here: Anyone have an perspective/opinions on Canadian banks listed on the US exchanges?

     

    A while back I had read an interesting piece on Canadian banks basically saying to buy anything that had it's yield rise above x %. I think it was 5% but don't recall. Regardless, I have been eyeballing them and wondering if there's anything out there to be aware of. (BMO) in particular is at 4.2% dividend. Any exchange rate impacts?

     

    The Canadian banks seemed to weather the 2008 crisis much better than US banks.
    21 Mar, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    I did buy 2 last year, then sold them after reading an article about how over valued Canadian real estate is.

     

    They didn't make any more money for me than (JPM) plus I had to pay foreign tax on the dividend (my brokerage did that for me). (TD) and (BOM) are 2. However, they are excellent banks. You can find articles here on SA about both of them.

     

    Could be they will go up right along with US banks as interest rates rise.
    21 Mar, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    Yes indeed because in Canada they didn't give mortgages to people with terrible credit & no job. These were called "liar loans" or "no doc" no documentation loans here in the good old USA.

     

    So yes, they did are a lot better : )
    21 Mar, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    Bank of Montreal…. (BMO)
    21 Mar, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Thanks BlueSky... heh yeah, says something about being smart with money...

     

    I'll keep reading :)
    21 Mar, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Canadian Banks are more conservative than U.S. Banks, and suffered little in the "Liar Loan" bubble-burst. I have a great one that I got by accident. They finance Canadian resource companies, and one of mine got taken over by the Bank, giving me shares in Dundee Corporation (OTCPK:DDEJF). (The "F" means it's not traded on most U.S. exchanges, so check the commission.) It's earlier name was Dundee Bancorp. It's a growth stock that I hold as a long term investment; I've added more and it spun-off its real estate development company as a dividend, DREAM Unlimited Corp. (DRM.TO). Dundee's currently beaten down, with a P/E of 1.6, and I can't see a reason why. It is closely held (99%) and not traded much, so use limit orders. It just keeps growing in commercial real estate, Mutual Funds, land development, mining, industrial development, organic farming, meat etc. It is designed to protect from inflation, which it feels is our biggest threat.
    Not for traders, more for growth and insurance.
    Last Annual report:
    http://bit.ly/1jm0bh3
    Regards,
    22 Mar, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Zalach
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Sinedo... I read through that one quickly and some more recent documents. The owner/founder sounds like a character (I say that in a good way)! However, no dividend is a non-starter for me.
    Thanks again
    ~Zalach
    22 Mar, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Interesting reading: Of the two, the second link is the most thought provoking as the chart explains why the Schiller p/e10 is so high on a historical basis and suggests margins and the multiple can continue to increase as long as the spread between productivity and labor costs continue to diverge. Certainly it goes a long way to explaining why the wealth gap continues to widen.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fRY1SW

     

    http://bit.ly/1fRY1T0-
    economic-chart.html
    23 Mar, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    (CEO) is also dirt cheap.
    23 Mar, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    You're right; the numbers do look compelling. The chart is interesting too as there's some divergence that hints at a bottom.
    23 Mar, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - China

     

    Is the big worry that the shadow banking industry will get in trouble... kind of like 2007 here?

     

    What's the bigger longer term picture with China?
    23 Mar, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Yes, but a case could be made a collapse of the shadow banking system is already heavily reflected in prices given the big discount to the US. I'd be more worried if coal, copper and iron ore companies were expensive - but industries that are highly dependent on Chinese growth are trading at a discount.
    23 Mar, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I think long term, investing in China at these prices has very little risk, short term we can easily see another 20-30%.

     

    I also think the Chinese economy is much better managed, you aren't going to see a Lehman Brothers type event, but the orderly slowdown could take awhile.
    24 Mar, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Too busy for too much detail but I see a Nasdaq top developing. I added several nasdaq shorts Friday and all are working. Still think tapering will have a PE ratio effect in this area. More details later but am net short now.
    24 Mar, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    In the for what it's worth category, nasdaq is holding at the trendline vs the S&P on the daily chart and the rsi is down to 31. The monthly chart looks positive but still overbought.

     

    http://bit.ly/1m2xvLV

     

    http://bit.ly/1m2xvLW

     

    Of course the S&P can fall further too.
    24 Mar, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Smallcaps overvalued... newsblurb of the day on several sites:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    But one commenter points out forward 12 month PE for Russell 2000 is "only" 19.55. Which would put it in line with other indices.

     

    (I don't know how to find forward PE for this index to double check - Scottrade's not showing any. But shows SnP as 20.9)
    24 Mar, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    12 month forward p/e for the S&P is 15.3; the average of the past 10 years is 13.8. I don't have a clue what it is for the Russell 2000, but around 20 sounds right.

     

    Small caps should lead if US stocks are gaining relative to the rest of the world - which they have been for quite awhile. But with so many areas cheap relative to the S&P, if emerging markets/Asia start to lead, expect the S&P500 to outperform.
    24 Mar, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Charts to examine for Nasdaq thesis: Ibb Amzn Nflx Lnkd.......and my old favourite (GS). Yes I am short (GS) again.
    24 Mar, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    I purchased Teck resources (tck) at the open. Div about 4% - iron ore and copper are their biggest ores mined. Like both the valuation and chart. I think copper has bottomed - at least for awhile.
    24 Mar, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Nasdaq stocks getting crushed, all shorts working well.
    24 Mar, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    If you're considering owning priceline - pcln - this could be your chance. Tested and held - so far- the 50 dma. And it's at a level where it should bounce relative to the s&P. check out this chart.
    http://bit.ly/Q7lTgp
    24 Mar, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Looks like it couldn't hold the 50 dma.
    24 Mar, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Yair - Nice call on chl and ceo. I have orders gtc orders in for ceo below $155.
    24 Mar, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    Go slow today, I think there will be some more down days as we move into April. Lots of opportunities to build your positions slowly.

     

    Glad I took some profits last Friday am.
    24 Mar, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    I've been buying (PCLN) (GOOG) and (AZO) slowly; these companies all make $ but are not cheap.

     

    Notice that (PG) (IBM) (MCD) are up today.
    24 Mar, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    Just started a position in (GILD). This is one F&G likes, wish I had bought it last year. It's up today, has a lot of room to grow this year.
    24 Mar, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    Blue.. u read my mind :)

     

    as i also just added (GILD) to my portfolio, huge dip this AM, then it has turned green on the day..& i decided the recent selling may be over.. I have been looking for an entry point on this one for a while now..

     

    I like this one for the LT..
    24 Mar, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    BSK & F&G - what bothers me so much about the biotechs is they are heavily dependent on reimbursement from insurance programs and medicaid/medicare since very few of those very expensive drugs are paid for out-of-pocket. At this level I was eying Celgene for a buy, but decided this group was too hard for me and there were far too many risks if those high prices have to be cut.

     

    And with the charts now broken, odds are they won't be a good hold for awhile - but might be good for a short term pop.
    24 Mar, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    good observation, the chart on (GILD) indicates it has just come back to its 200 day MA, down 15% from its high, so i decided to go with a starter position.. Now I may consider selling the Apr 75 calls, collect 2.2% for 26 days and over 6 % if they are called..

     

    (CELG) is also on my radar also, but that chart looks quite different , the price is in "no mans land" as it has broken the 200 day MA..

     

    When they do that i start to look at fibonacci levels to see where they may eventually fall to and then wait until i see a bounce..
    24 Mar, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    (EZPW) just went nuts on zero news, great time to pick up shares.
    24 Mar, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    I was in that years ago. I hate mgmt and their weird governance/ownership structure and will never get in again.

     

    What could be pressuring it today is the downdraft in gold They made a fair amount of money when gold was climbing and unless they are hedged, getting hurt on their holdings.
    24 Mar, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Yeah the structure is less than favorable.
    24 Mar, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    This is the oddest thing. De is down over $1 yet all the call options are up and the puts are down - and it hasn't gone ex-dividend. The only reason I noticed is I'm making a bit of money in an options spread put on awhile back. I can't find any news except grains are trading higher.

     

    Anybody seeing anything else like that?
    24 Mar, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    (DE) might be having some problems with emerging markets not buying their machines & farmers here cutting back too. A few years ago, the gov't allowed the farmers to write off the cost of a tractor in one year. So farmers were buying new machinery when they really didn't need to. Now that's not allowed anymore, farmers aren't buying as many new tractors.
    24 Mar, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    dd...

     

    I follow the grains through (JJG) and I noticed it's up over 2% today too. Would their movement effect (DE)?
    24 Mar, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Usually, but DE was down but the options were reflecting higher prices.

     

    DE options are cheap and perhaps people were in there buying the call options as a low risk bet. A few weeks ago I but a call spread risk reversal in the January 15 options because I was wishy washy about buying the stock but noticed options offered limited risk.

     

    In case you're wondering a bull call spread risk reversal is when you buy a call spread and sell a downside put to help pay for it. I like that play when I feel a stocks downside is limited or if I don't mind owning the stock at the put strike. I did the Jan 15 90/100 call spread and sold the 75 put for the net cost of 75 cents per contract; it's only fractionally higher now. Best case is I make $9.25/contract, worst case is I wind up owning DE at $75 (and lose the premium paid).

     

    I've done these in the past and they have typically worked out very well but you have to make sure your downside risk is limited. I would never, ever put that spread on in something like a Tesla or Netflix - or a high p/e cyclical stock.
    24 Mar, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    On days like today, i look for stocks that are green & showing some strength & going against the broad market.. ..

     

    (JPM) another new high , (C) . (AAPL), (CVX)
    24 Mar, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    Add (MSFT) to the green list today as well..
    24 Mar, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3810) | Send Message
     
    (LINE) down 6% today, (LNCO) down 7.5%... Such ugliness. :(
    24 Mar, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - sinedo

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    What were you saying about another short run to come? You pegged it :).

     

    JBT -
    It's down from a (JPM) downgrade. Apparently JPM owns a 4%-something share in the stock. Guess they wanted to pick up more cheaper :). Sinedo said previously that there'd be another run. Probably so the price would come down enough for last year's shorts to get out.

     

    I've never been in a short raid before. Made sense of that "panic" feeling, that wasn't matching the data, a few weeks ago.... along with several article commenters who seemed to have an agenda to put down the stock.
    25 Mar, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Brazil is looking better by the day. EWZ now breaking out on volume since mid-March. Lots of completely-trashed issues down there.
    24 Mar, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I have noticed,

     

    (VALE) , (PBR) looking much better.

     

    24 Mar, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    The charts, prices and volumes all look favorable, presently.
    24 Mar, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    JBT,
    All oil E & p companies in my portfolio are ugly today as well, (PXD), & (WLL) down sharply
    24 Mar, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Great day on (Nflx) short. Shorted 405 trading at 370 now. That's what happens when these names turn. Lot of tech leaders breaking down. I'd be real cautious on the buy side here.
    24 Mar, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Really excellent short trades on nose-bleed techs. Probably some biotechs in there, too.

     

    I find the market's reaction to these events very reassuring, as selling was very muted and, even against these moves, emerging markets are suddenly showing signs of life. This is perfect; the over-extended issues are correcting, and the rest of the market is behaving sanely.
    24 Mar, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    I like EM's, own a couple, will buy more, but not yet. Nasdaq short looks like a much better trade to me. I do like bond equivalents, like mortgage reits, utilities like (MBT). I'm substantially net short now. Looks like institutional distribution rather than reaction to a bad earnings report, so I think likely has more to go. Watch (GS) again too, lower high and turning down.
    24 Mar, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Selected NASDAQ short have some room left, but I don't see any of the other broader weakness. When XLF is flat and Brazil rising strongly today, I see the risk of a major downward move in the broad market as low.

     

    Agency REITs weren't happy today, despite Treasuries being up. That tells me that there's little conviction in more weakness and lower rates.

     

    MBT and OGZPY look attractive to me, too.
    24 Mar, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    I'm long (Mbt) and will keep it. I see a flattening curve and lower long term rates. The Fed is tightening and money is flowing out of high growth names. I don't like brazil, both because of their govt and copper prices don't support a rally, other than an oversold bounce, absent china policy change.
    24 Mar, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Interesting today the yield curve flattened to 2009 levels. This is not a constructive event.
    24 Mar, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Is somebody making a joke? In 2009, we had record steepness to the yield curve.

     

    http://bit.ly/1m2VVVn
    24 Mar, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    Macro, I saw that on Marketwatch today but the article was confusing, to me atl least. Can you please explain what it means in SA language? THX in advance.
    24 Mar, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Short rates are going up, as the Fed is tightening. Long rates are going down, reflecting no inflation and slower growth.

     

    In other words, don't follow most people who are shorting long bonds , or you'll get killed.
    24 Mar, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    http://bloom.bg/NLB3pL

     

    Tack you are looking at the wrong curve. 5 to 30's have flattened a lot.

     

    Btw S&P just cut Brazil's credit rating.
    24 Mar, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    I don't get the bullish comments on (VALE) It's a dead stock exactly 50 cents off a multi - year low. Cheap for a reason.
    24 Mar, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    When you're not a short-term trader, measuring things in hours or days, just hearing the words, "multi-year lows," is music to a value investor's ears.

     

    Numerous Brazil stocks have been breaking out on volume since mid-March. Look at the price/volume for EWZ.
    24 Mar, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    We'll see. Elect a new govt there and I'm in. Maybe. I do not like industrial commodities, particularly.

     

    Multi year lows have a funny habit of becoming more multi year lows. Who knows. Perhaps as an election promise the govt promises to triple the royalty tax on ((VALE).

     

    Buying EM's with a hostile govt is a waste of time, at best.

     

    Brazil is a lousy investment to me until certain things change. Absolutely lousy long or short term. You'ed do much better with Thailand, Indonesia or Vietnam. Even Columbia, ((http://bit.ly/1dqwCNq) which I'm long and looks a lot better on the chart too.
    24 Mar, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Btw, assuming the Fed has the courage to allow the market to stand on its own 2 feet by continuing the taper, I hope to hold my tech shorts for awhile. This is not a day trade.
    24 Mar, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    First, it was the fed could "never " taper, now they can't continue to taper.. Along with that stocks were supposed to crumble before our eyes and here we are with a 35% reduction in asset purchases and equities are at all time highs.. .

     

    I agree with Tack, the momentum stocks are correcting but the overall market is looking ok, names like MSFT & JPM ,made new highs today..
    It's money rotating and that is a good sign, ..
    24 Mar, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    This is how I saw tapering and QE back in Aug '13 :
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    " As this is played out I can see the following results as overall market reactions as the "End of the QE 'trade" unfolds":

     

    First, a stronger dollar, which will translate to watch the action in commodities as I believe it will be "sloppy"..

     

    Gold will sink , trading much lower than it is today. Stocks will re-correlate to this new environment. Contrary to some opinion, equities can do quite well once the markets "adjusts" to a more normalized interest rate environment. We can also expect increased volatility (elevated VIX levels). "

     

    And it sure seems as that is how it is playing out. Increased volatility so far this year, commodities action sure has been sloppy, and now this week, a stronger dollar, gold sold off hard, giving back all of the gains and more from the 'Ukraine Fear" episode.

     

    All of this happening while equities cope with the needed adjustments in this new environment, and in my view will continue to do so with strength being displayed in the financials, technology, cyclicals and consumer discretionary.
    24 Mar, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    MSFT? That's a defensive stock these days. Like seeing Colgate rally. Doesn't say much. Besides corrections often begin with momentum names.
    24 Mar, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    Really, ? think again, break out from a 13 yr base & now no overhead resistance -- There is a LT chart in this commentary

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    These stocks may lead the market higher.. and that is a good thing..
    24 Mar, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys for help in trying to understanding the flattening curve.

     

    My short take from the Bloomberg writeup is "tale of two markets".
    24 Mar, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Welcome Economic Analyst!!

     

    This Marketwatch article was good (for a change) about how current yield curve is no where near points that correlated with recessions. The chart is a vivid:
    http://on.mktw.net/1py...
    26 Mar, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    What's really funny is the bullish article from James K, who thinks everyone else an absolute idiot. So far -- his article Top Ticked the SPX, to the day. Perfect.
    24 Mar, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I think it's a little early to call it "the intermediate top." But, he does seem to be very, very close... at the least :)!!

     

    Meanwhile, a few chapters ago, I asked if anyone else picked up the mood changing... I was picking up something... it's been iffy every since. ...now if I'd just get myself to act on my instincts, I'd be doing better...
    25 Mar, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    No, you'd be doing worse if you act on "instincts') (translation: emotions), rather than staying focused on data.

     

    All it takes is a quick perusal of the recent article "The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today" and the blizzard of worry and doom-like predictions that follow in the commentary to know that nothing has changed. All the persistent hatred for this rally, which has been its hallmark throughout, remains in place. And, the markets current pause -- consolidating sideways for a full quarter -- has brought the naysayers out in their usual vociferous manner, calming "the top is in" and the "Big One" is to follow.

     

    Stay calm, stay measured. Look for opportunity. Observe what is the trend in market rotation. Do not panic and run. If you want to worry about any "mood" changing, worry about it when everybody gets giddy, not when the worriers turn up the volume.

     

    FWIW, I see a continued choppy market, while we continue to consolidate last year's gains, which favors income issues. It's neither time for "go-go" issues nor the bomb shelter.
    25 Mar, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    well said, & i will ad if anyone is inclined to do so -- a choppy , sideways market is Great for a covered call strategy.. just Buy & write .

     

    I followed thru on my thoughts with doing just that on (GILD) .. bought yesterday and just sold the Apr 75 call for $1.90 ..
    25 Mar, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    I appreciate your sentiment about instincts. When I was writing I didn't mean instincts as emotions. Instincts are calculations based on the sum total of information. Which consists of concrete data.

     

    My instinct was that the upbeat had shifted and a few down days would follow. They did. It wasn't a long term view of a crash. It wasn't even an intermediate view of anything. I have had reasonably good instincts on those movements -- but not traded on them. Has nothing to do with what makes sense for long term investment.

     

    I'm on board with your perspectives of the market. We're in a bull... that's going sideways. It may correct (I wish it would). However, that's not a crash.

     

    Rotation is something I need to learn more about... what sectors move in what ways under what conditions... To know more of what to favor under these conditions.
    25 Mar, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Here's just one site that provides a visual representation of sector flows:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/17L...
    25 Mar, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Cool picture
    25 Mar, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    That techq works well in sideways markets. What if that correction comes and it's 20%... will the open calls become a real problem? (That'd be my worry.)
    25 Mar, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    L,
    Yes , u r absolutely correct ,, & that is why you should deploy that strategy on shares that you will not mind having in your portfolio, if you run into a deeper correction..
    & I also try to use a near dated option , in this example I only went out 1 month..
    If all works out well , you can turn the money over and wait for another oportunity..
    25 Mar, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Even if one wished to exit covered-call stocks in a decline, one could always buy back the call at a profit, then sell the underlying issue. Selling calls, as an income enhancement or hedge, poses none of the issues that selling puts does, where a falling market does cause a dilemma.
    25 Mar, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    I agree, generally: "Instincts are calculations based on the sum total of information..."
    I have found that I have regretted not acting on my "instincts", far more often than not, and usually because I was looking for more confirming data, and failing to act, missed the opportunity that was so obvious in retrospect.

     

    On "rotation", that is the bread and butter of the WS Brokers, and it is worth studying. My "fundamental truth" re. "rotation" is "The first shall be last, and the last first". When you see anal-yst recommendations to Buy when charts show overbought, they are trying to rotate out of their holdings, and want you to buy from them. Ditto, with Sell; they're ready to accumulate.
    Funds always act like a herd, and follow suit. Their first objective is to never show performance less than their Sector peers, so they will sell losers prior to the Quarter report, and buy to show winners in their portfolio. Price and fund holders be damned.
    Computer programs insure they follow the herd.
    They will be the first into a "hated" sector, and the first out of the "loved" ones. You can stay ahead of them focusing on value, but dividends have to justify holding while you wait for the rotation to begin.
    Regards,
    26 Mar, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Great view. Thanks.
    Regards,
    26 Mar, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » sinedo

     

    A lot of rich information in what you've commented.

     

    On instincts, I've found I need to differentiate between strong sense/instinct ... and light weight ones that are more like guessing and hopeful wishing.

     

    On that Friday's chart -- I watch the smallcaps (IWM) a lot -- in middle of the day, it hesitated and didn't pop up where previously it would. It felt different, "off" even though it was positive for the day.
    26 Mar, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Mark Gnomes

     

    What's everyone's opinion? Does his track record make him worth following?
    25 Mar, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    I follow him. I've actually purchased one of his 'poised to triple' and it was (HIMX). I about doubled my money. I have put a few of the other picks into a watchlist, but they really haven't moved in either direction. Kind of sideways, just like the market. Like FG, I really haven't formed an opinion.
    25 Mar, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    ... now the SA tracking on new comments isn't working... I'm searching by date, but I hope it gets fixed quickly.
    25 Mar, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3810) | Send Message
     
    I second that. Makes it impossible to follow on articles that have a large number of comments.
    25 Mar, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    It's working for me?
    25 Mar, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3810) | Send Message
     
    It shows there are new comments on an article on my little clipboard thingy, but it does not flag them with an orange "NEW" flag.
    25 Mar, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    This morning I wrote a "Contact us" about it. Shortly after I got a message it was being forwarded to the programming dept. Half hour later it was fixed. Could it be no one let them know. And they didn't notice?
    (Or it was just coincidence.)
    26 Mar, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3810) | Send Message
     
    Looks like it's working for me on instablogs, but not on regular articles. Still just opens up to the beginning of the article, and no "NEW" flags on new comments.
    26 Mar, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Works for me on both -- but only for newly posted comments. Anything from yesterday that wasn't flagged still isn't. Anything in an older article that I'd opened and not seen flagged, isn't flagging now either.
    26 Mar, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3810) | Send Message
     
    Blah. 24 new comments on today's WSB right now... I click it, it sits at top of page, with none of the new comments flagged. :(
    26 Mar, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT, Cwinn

     

    Yep, stopped working for me. I have no patience with a problem like this. Shouldn't put changes out to distribution until it's been run through testing thoroughly!! (Been there, done that -- have the "why are you being so picky" comments to show for it".)
    26 Mar, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I have read some of Marks articles and have yet to form a solid opinion..
    25 Mar, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    We gap higher; and again they are hammering the nasdaq leaders. Big Distribution. Shorts are working great in the Momo names.
    25 Mar, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    (GS) breaking down.
    25 Mar, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    We are going to break hard here.
    25 Mar, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Your shorts are well placed. At the same time, the disproportionate weakness in tech mo-mo's and biotech is just what we need to bring the markets back into balance.
    25 Mar, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Well -- so far so good. I have some conviction because notice volatility is remaining low. That means this is not shorting or spec action, this is institutional distribution happening in this sector of the market -- more the small caps then even the nasdaq. Downtrends are forming. I'm short about 8 -9 names and all are starting to trend lower. All but one have violated their 50 day MA's. (GS) is the only non- momo name I'm short, and again it is acting very poorly.
    25 Mar, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Covered (ICPT) and (AMZN) shorts. Down to about 7 names; all beta names allied to the Russell 2000, the weakest index.
    25 Mar, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    u r correct,, RUT is the weakest and is also the most expensive..

     

    Cyclicals took some money today,, just look at a name like (CAT)--- it just broke out again today..
    25 Mar, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    Names that I would buy today either for a trade or a LT holding.. (PXD) (181), (EBAY) (56), (MU) (23.5), (CTRP) (47)

     

    I have a "full" position in all...
    25 Mar, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    "real" total return by investment category

     

    Anyone owning gold over the LT has been left for dead in comparison to stock ownership ......

     

    http://bit.ly/1dLGgVw
    25 Mar, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Glad I'm not short any indexes into quarter end ramp. That being said if I was long spec names, I'd be using this bid to dump / and or get short.
    26 Mar, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (749) | Send Message
     
    Quiet in here. Managed to sell off OFG.PB for a slight profit (considering I only had it a few months - would have been better to have bought more during the Puerto Rico scare a month or two ago - damn thing dropped below $20). Finally bought into (GEQ) today with the proceeds.

     

    Got a better current yield and option/income funds tend to be more defensive in a pull-back.

     

    May end up selling (ETB) soon - price getting close to nav.
    26 Mar, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    (GILD) is going higher today. We bought at the right time F&G.

     

    (KING) the candy crush game IPO'd today & it's down. Which is good, because so many IPOs recently are going sky high, makes me wonder if it's getting too much like 2001 dot.com busted time.

     

    People will get back to buying quality sooner or later. Many low PE solid stocks like (CAT) are going higher as investors search for value, instead of being dumb enough to buy something like (KING).

     

    Don't get crushed - do your research & stick to quality.
    26 Mar, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF, & sinedo

     

    That's starting to make sense for me out of the indices. (IWM) is .5% down compared to everything else... solid red.

     

    I'm wondering if the IPO's poor showing is also about an underlying shift in the market to a "correction" sentiment...?
    26 Mar, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Look at the YTD overlay chart for SPX and IWM. The IWM was up slightly more than the SPX and now they're converging. There's nothing profound going on and reading tea leaves looking for some portent in there is not useful.
    26 Mar, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    Nice bounce on the (GILD) position, :)

     

    I mentioned this one earlier , a beneficiary of more M & A.. (http://bit.ly/1ivpvB5) ----it just broke to the upside today .. 2.6% div yield

     

    Plenty of room for this stock to continue higher..
    26 Mar, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    I'm not reading tea leaves. The "also" wasn't referrring to smallcaps. It was referring to BSF's ideas on why the IPO did poorly.
    26 Mar, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    I disagree. Money is moving out of the speculative side and getting defensive. We might be setting up to correct here.
    26 Mar, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    One glance at emerging markets tells me that this isn't likely. The market is just rotating away from the excesses in a very orderly manner.
    26 Mar, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Really. We;ll see. Have a look at the XLY/XLP ratio. Totally collapsing here.
    26 Mar, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    I would never buy on IPO day. Wait a few months, to see how the company does. Most stocks go down in the months following their IPO. Plus, a lot of these IPOs are really very sketchy companies. (KING) has one game that makes 85% of its earnings. (BOX) will IPO soon. Stay away from this thing; they are spending double on advertising vs. what they make per customer, so currently losing a tremendous amount of money. why are they IPOing ??? A company that isn't making $ but going public reminds me too much of the dot com busted days.
    26 Mar, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Yeah, so discretionary spending has hit a soft patch. You think that means the end is near?
    26 Mar, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Speculative market (IWM) -- ready to crack hard. Bonds (TLT) -- ready to explode higher. Added IWM puts and TLT calls to existing heavy speculative short position.If you are long this speculative stuff, get out now.
    26 Mar, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    I've got a long position in (IWM) itself. It's obviously down a lot from a few days ago. Are you thinking the index as a whole is ready to drop hard?

     

    It was the only index I sold some of a month ago, to lighten up...
    26 Mar, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    Always two 'sides" to consider ..

     

    IWM is back @ 50 day MA as possible support..

     

    Its also oversold..

     

    RSI @ levels that have held before..
    26 Mar, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    LOMH -- GET OUT NOW.
    26 Mar, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    80% NET SHORT.
    26 Mar, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 80% net short?

     

    Means 80% of option holders are short on it?
    26 Mar, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    I am 80% short the market here.
    26 Mar, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Good luck! You're much more nimble than I am. I'm going to hold off on selling until looks completely obvious (IWM) is moving down (i.e. it's doing it). I can just hold till it recovers from here if not.
    26 Mar, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Would have served me well to sell then :), and buy back later in day (like I would have). Sigh - missed opportunity. Bet you did well today!
    26 Mar, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - GoDaddy is working on an IPO

     

    When it comes out, I'll go for it -- if the fundamentals make sense. I've done business with them and it's been positive. Their whole business model setup and also setup for the customer has been intelligent.
    26 Mar, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    today I bought (KMP) and (DFT) to lower my average cost on both.

     

    we need some solid earnings to get this market headed higher

     

    meanwhile, you can buy whatever is cheap but still quality.

     

    too many IPOs - especially companies with sketchy earnings & potential. I'd rather buy solid companies than a piece of junk.
    26 Mar, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    GoDaddy is a solid company selling real services (management of your website's DSNs). Have you looked into what they're about?

     

    That's why I got excited about it. It's been around a long time - has a market niche, does well in it... and as i said, i've gotten a positive impression of the management from how they've setup. There's a lot of frustrating, flash in the pan or wildly overpriced companies in that market niche. This is a real company, solid.

     

    Only question is with the shift to the US regulation agency no longer regulating DSNs the same way (can't remember the recent blurb right now, but about making it more international)... that'd be something to consider how it'd effect their business model.
    26 Mar, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    L, not buying any more tech at this time, I have too many companies as it is. Keeping up with them gets to be a challenge. Be sure and check out Godaddy here on SA, to see if someone has done an in depth article.

     

    Too often, the excitement of IPO day causes you to over pay for a stock.
    26 Mar, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    I wasn't yet thinking about when to buy - on IPO day or later. Was just keeping it in mind, because I think it will be a long term positive company for at least 3-5 years (then reeval based on competition.)
    26 Mar, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Most people would rather start selling 5 or 10% lower. Makes no sense to me at all. Just because we've been trending for 5 years doesn't mean we trend up into infinity.
    26 Mar, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    We haven't been trending to infinity, in case you haven't noticed. We've been engaged in a nice orderly horizontal consolidation for an entire quarter, and, playing right along, now, the overextended techs and biotechs are sliding back into compliance.

     

    I don't understand why you think that automatically portends some dramatic move downward. While this has been going on, take a gander at Brazil, since mid-March, moving decidedly higher on volume. This is hardly suggestive to me of markets about to go over Niagara Falls.

     

    You made some prescient calls on individual tech stocks, but, now, you appear to be extrapolating that to the broader markets, but the outcome appears far less obvious, at least to me.
    26 Mar, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    If you are a long term investor, keep going into this market whenever you find something worth buying. We could very well see a blow out in April, if employment numbers go higher & we get some solid earnings.

     

    I'm finding stocks to buy every day, but buying small amounts. Recent purchases are (GOOG) (PCLN) (AZO) (GILD) (DFT) (KMP) (VALE)

     

    Past recommendations that have done well… (MAT) (BGS)

     

    other stocks doing well (IBM) (M) (FL) (DNKN) (COH) (BX) (PEP) (BAC) (JPM) (LMT) (NOC) (MSFT) (CMI) (JNJ) (UNH) (UTX)
    26 Mar, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Long bonds are breaking out here. Another sign of defensiveness.
    26 Mar, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Huh?

     

    10-year down .03
    30-year down .01

     

    That's "breaking out?"
    26 Mar, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Covered 25% of my (TWTR) short for + 10%. Covered most shorts on (IWM) futures. Keeping the rest of core short exposure.
    26 Mar, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    (C) getting slaughtered after hours. Thought the accepted "wisdom" is these would be the market leaders. Doesn't look like it.
    26 Mar, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    C down on Fed objection to capital plan. A lot of drama over exactly nothing.
    26 Mar, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    The stock is down. The market doesn't agree its "nothing". Our opinion means exactly zero next to the markets.

     

    As I said would happen btw -- 3 days ago -- , we are cracking hard. Try listening to what the market is saying, which is serious de-risking action.
    26 Mar, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    "we are cracking hard" ,

     

    That is comical,

     

    Back to reality ,

     

    The S & P is off 1% from its all time high --

     

    Citi is selling @ 75% of book.. perhaps an exaggerated sell off will present a 'fear' based buying opportunity..
    26 Mar, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    For the Last Time. Seriously.

     

    None of my commentary reference the SPX or shorting the SPX. I am not particularly bearish on the SPX or the Dow. Clear enough?

     

    I have more than once"we are cracking hard Led By the momentum stocks / Small caps /". Those stocks are cracking hard. Exhibit "a" (twtr).

     

    I don't know about you, but I've made a large profit the last several days shorting both the momentum stocks, short the (IWM) and long 30 year bonds.

     

    And when the time is right to buy, I'll buy. That time is not now.

     

    Arrogance of the bull side reinforces my bearish conviction.
    26 Mar, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    With all due respect, how is someone supposed to interpret this exact quote for you today?

     

    "I am 80% short the market here."

     

    Sure sounds like one is short the SPX or something close, as the SPX is "the market," for all intents and purposes.
    26 Mar, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    That's where you and many others are wrong. The SPX is only 500 high quality stocks in a universe of thousands. It is most assuredly Not the "market".

     

    My comments are quite clear where my focus is. I don't short high quality dividend paying companies. (GS) being a possible exception -- if considered "high quality".

     

    Don't assume trading a correction is impossible because most can't do it.
    26 Mar, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    please tell us how one is supposed to interpret 'cracking hard" and now your "bearish conviction",
    and for the last time seriously - TWTR and other momentum names that have cracked hardly represent the "market"
    And for the last time there is no arrogance on the bull side at all, just a complete understanding that being down 1% from all time highs is nothing for any one to ring their hands over.. seriously
    If you have had success shoring specific names , that is great, but refrencing the market as cracking hard is disingenuous. Similar to another post i just read that said "they are running for the exits." It's the same bunch that has missed the entire upside. this stuff is "old"
    seen the action in (CVX) lately , (LAZ) ,?? shall i pick a few names out there and suggest that we are rallying hard? Of course not -- for that would also be comical
    get the point ?

     

    shorting now without a clear downtrend in place is a guess at best.. many have done that all thru the upside move and have been carried out feet first as they tried to "guess" the top
    and for me ---when its time to short or get defensive i'll do that ,, that time is not now..
    and for the last time -- its called rotation and its healthy for the market.. TWTR goes up and LAZ makes a new high -- it's rather simple .. 
    26 Mar, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    "Don't assume trading a correction is impossible because most can't do it."

     

    at the end of the day most that do that have zero to show for their efforts..

     

    & that is a fact..
    26 Mar, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    These days, LAZ is not the "market". TWTR and AMZN are -- key market influencers.

     

    Sorry, it is what it is.

     

    You are still bullish (GS) if I remember correctly as well, which just made a lower high and is turning over again. This would define a "downtrend".

     

    I am short (GS). 2 points away from a major breakdown test.

     

    Markets change. Don't be stubborn. This is distribution happening.

     

    Funny you completely assume I missed all the upside because I'm net short now and that bothers you. You probably think I'm long gold too. Hilarious.

     

    I've done very well long equities and short gold, as well.
    26 Mar, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    if u are looking at a 24 hr chart it's a downtrend.
    but anyone with more than a daily/weekly time horizon would find that description hilarious , as i do now..

     

    u told me about (GS) and all the reasons why it was 'cracking" and looking miserable when u shorted at 162 and it ran to 174..

     

    we can easily revisit that commentary

     

    enuff said..
    26 Mar, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Yep, I was stopped out for a $2 loss. Now I'm back in and onside $3. How are you doing? Where are your stops? Aren't you long (C) too?
    26 Mar, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I bought a bunch of (IWM) at the end of the day for a short term trade. It's bound to be higher than this price in the next few days it seems to me... ($114.82).

     

    I'm not convinced it's going back up near it's 119-120 highs all that soon...

     

    Is this amount of divergence between small & SnP normal as rotation to safety happens? Why is rotation to safety happening now anyway? I can list the usual worries (taper, ZIRP, China, a sighting of a man taking a walk last night after dark)....
    ...but is it more likely the divergence is about maturity of a bull, and economy that's showing signs of life, and that's what happens at this stage?

     

    Also is nearly everyone anticipating a correction as very possible -- a contrarian indicator?
    26 Mar, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    I dont get this trade. Why exactly did you buy the weakest index?

     

    IMO exactly no one is anticpating a correction. I've heard nothing but bullish rhetoric to my caution, bordering on arrogance that a correction is even possible.
    26 Mar, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    I bought (IWM) because it sold off so much -- thinking it oversold enough to come up a bit in the next few days. It even tended to sell more than $RUT during the day. I did wonder if buying it was the best choice for a pop.... but I'm not going to hold long term this buy. Mistake??

     

    I've seen a lot of concerns about a correction is near lately... more than I had been. A lot's been that it's overbought, top heavy, good time to wait for better entry points. However, I have seen some of your comments and responses to them :).
    26 Mar, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    IWM can trade down to the 110 level and still be in a solid uptrend..

     

    Its simple corrective action after making a new high less than 30 DAYS ago !! ....

     

    if someone wants to guess and play those swings , have at it, ..
    26 Mar, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Good to know. Maybe I'll regret this grrr. I still have plenty to put into the market & 110 would be great. I can hold this for as long as it takes to come back to here... Could it get to 110 without the rest of the market coming down too?

     

    My comment on corrections was purely in response to Macro's comment.

     

    It's been frustrating that I don't have the time it takes to do research for individual stocks as much as I'd like... it'd make sense to aim for more of them. Unfortunately I got burnt on the ones I bought, so I want to look harder next round. (So far down (LINE) (MU), all 3 BDCs. (CVX) is up, and (TGT) is waffling.)
    26 Mar, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Put in other words -- I bought it because it looks the most on sale.

     

    You're point is good - and it's good to get feedback from someone with trading experience (even if is a word of caution.)
    26 Mar, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5297) | Send Message
     
    L,
    U didnt get burnt.. picking the absolute bottom is near impossible

     

    its very early in the game on (LINE) (MU) & (TGT)

     

    lets see where they are this time next year.. ;)
    26 Mar, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    LMH, I'm concerned because I believe a major trend change in (IWM) is possible here, but a major top relative to the SPX -- so that the (IWM) will now underperform the SPX at best -- is highly likely. Doesn't mean it won't bounce, but the long term risk is higher with that index.
    26 Mar, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I'm burnt. Down enough, that (CVX) is drowned by the loses. 15% in (LINE), 7% in (TCAP), (TCRD). The market's been going up... and my picks are going down. And faster down than the market's going up. (By market, I mean SnP, Russell, DOW). (MU) was borderline but down 3% more today. There's been one surprise "hit" after another.

     

    I'm in individuals at 5% of my portfolio, so it's possible to stay the course without distress. I'm curious to see where they wind up. I hope this is a short raid in (LINE)... otherwise I'm not sure it will be back to even, if it doesn't keep up the distribution. The BDCs took two unexpected hits in a row -- and now there's the rate nervousness impacting them. Hopefully they'll be back up someday... before another recession (I don't want to ride these down in a recession). I don't think they'll be as popular once ZIRP is over.

     

    My indices are doing better than that. It is what it is right now... I know you're trying to encourage me :).

     

    PS if (LINE) is in a short raid - then this is great fun to watch. If the BDCs come back up - their dividends make for good waiting.
    26 Mar, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Thanks! I hear you. I had thought about (IWM) not being "the" place to be anymore. I'm normally heavy into it over the SPX. After hopefully a bounce... you're right that other areas are better to weight now.
    26 Mar, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3810) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    (LNCO) will be my tax write-off next April. Only 2% of my holdings, but still sucks. :) Down 17% in not very long at all.

     

    Good thing it's only money... ;)
    26 Mar, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    lol, yep, only money ;).

     

    Unless in 3 more quarters the short raid stops, it reports at least break even earnings... & dividend becomes a draw. Plus energy is down & will trend up.

     

    When a stock behaves this irrationally... and with big volume downs in the morning and nothing the rest of the day... somethin's up :).
    27 Mar, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3810) | Send Message
     
    Many years ago, I held (IIIN) - Insteel Industries. At one point, it got down below 50-cents/share, so I just forgot about it. We were about to buy our first house in '05, and I just happened to look at Insteel's price, and it was up around $16/share!

     

    I contacted shareholder relations, and they were able to reconnect me with my long-lost shares. I sold for a good profit, and it helped out with our down payment. :)

     

    Moral of the story? I guess it would be that sometimes good things can happen even after you reach the point where you just don't care anymore. :)
    27 Mar, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Now 60% short, 10% long, 30% cash.
    26 Mar, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    There's a MW streaming blurb that
    "Citigroup shares fall 4% after Fed rejects capital plan"
    26 Mar, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Someone should send a thank-you letter to the Fed for creating these buying dips.
    26 Mar, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'll do a new chapter later this evening...
    26 Mar, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1736) | Send Message
     
    take advantage of some of these stocks reversing….it won't last for long. (LMT) is a buy. (JPM) (GS) (BAC) (WFC) went up after hours.

     

    The stocks I bought today went up… (KMP) and (DFT).

     

    Stay focused. If you are in this market for the long haul, keep adding to positions slowly.

     

    By the end of this year, you will be happy you were buying now.
    26 Mar, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Just to educate -- the SPX index is not the Market -- unless that's all your investing in.
    26 Mar, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3492) | Send Message
     
    To anyone: Monday I added a large amount of (LDOS) to my retirement portfolio. I believe there is a .32 cents per share dividend due at the end of April. I have never bought for dividends before,is that an OK move ?
    26 Mar, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I'm not familiar with LDOS but I looked up their dividend history which is short - only since 2012 - and hasn't shown growth. Typically it's a good idea to put a dividend stock into the retirement account and reinvest the dividends, but generally a dividend grower with a long history is preferred.
    26 Mar, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • CoinsK
    , contributor
    Comments (3492) | Send Message
     
    DD ,Thanks for the reply.The reason for the track record being so short is they became (LDOS) 6 months ago, after they were known as SAIC for years. It's part of the confusion.They get a lot of Govt. contracts at any rate.
    26 Mar, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4435) | Send Message
     
    Man the bulls are irritated today.

     

    You should be welcoming these prices to load up on high quality names like (twtr) (king)and (plug).

     

    That's a joke btw.
    26 Mar, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - On rotation does anyone have thoughts?

     

    Is this amount of divergence between small & SnP normal as rotation to safety happens? Why is rotation to safety happening now anyway? I can list the usual worries (taper, ZIRP, China, a sighting of a man taking a walk last night after dark)....
    ...but is it more likely the divergence is about maturity of a bull, and economy that's showing signs of life, and that's what happens at this stage?

     

    Also is nearly everyone anticipating a correction as very possible -- a contrarian indicator?
    26 Mar, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    This action of a few days means nothing profound.

     

    The techs and small caps were running higher, YTD, than the market. Now, they'r just drifting back to parity. They're not even below the more general market (SPX), as both IXIC and IWM are still above the SPX on a YTD basis.

     

    This is typical consolidation and says almost nothing about the future trends.
    26 Mar, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4329) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    So this isn't a rotation to safety. It's a balancing away from overbought (which in this case is speculative.)
    26 Mar, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13554) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    That's more or less the way I see it. One could argue that a reduction in speculative names was somehow defensive, ie., safer, but, overall, I am just not all wound up by sectors of the market that were 2-4% higher than the market losing some altitude, given the market's churning, so far.

     

    And, I see nothing in behavior of markets elsewhere or economic data to suggest that we're on the precipice of some major reversal. Could the markets get all excited and try to correct, yet again? Sure, but any selling will be met with new buying, as usual.

     

    As I said elsewhere, I think it's quite possible that both the +20% and -20% market forecasters will be disappointed in coming months.
    26 Mar, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    LMH - I pretty much agree with Tack, but you have to remember this market had a huge run without much of a correction - and we're only a couple percent below the highs in the S&P. Just on profit taking and/or nervousness this market could correct more. Relative to history it's a little on the pricy side, with both the Nasdaq and small caps more