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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #13 211 comments
    Mar 26, 2014 8:44 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #13. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments.

    Here's a link to the prior, #12: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/2771943-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-12?v=1395879193

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long IWM, DIA, SPY, MU, LINE, CVX, PSEC, TCAP.

    Additional disclosure: ...and many more...

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (211)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey!!

     

    Feel free to post to the prior discussion in the prior chapter... but here's a new chapter for new posts...

     

    Being a contrarian by nature... I'm thinking this chapter 13 will be very lucky for all of us... since that bucks tradition :).
    26 Mar, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    For new readers, I've moved onto Chapter 14, as this one got long:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Apr, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Interesting commentary that i just ran across,

     

    "Emotional investors and speculators inevitably lose
    money; investors who take advantage of Mr. Market's periodic irrationality, by contrast, have a good chance of enjoying long-term success."
    26 Mar, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Exactly. Mr market is irrational to the upside in certain sectors. I am investing in the downside of those sectors and the return of rationality to the market.
    26 Mar, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    very choppy today….let's see what happens tomorrow.

     

    Macro, I don't short or do any options. So it's interesting to read what you are doing. It's possible to make money shorting the overvalued "'mo mo" stocks. That's nice you are making money.

     

    Others have a different point of view, investing in solid companies with good growth prospects.

     

    There are always stocks that are undervalued & going higher, even on a day like today. I focus on the stocks that I hold or am interested in buying. Sometimes I do sell, especially the stocks that have gone up in value & are getting into over valued territory. I got out of over $100,000 worth of stock last Friday am, taking some profits off the table.

     

    Which pains me today, as (BAX) & (NDLS) went up a lot today. Many of the other stocks I sold did fall so far this week.

     

    I'm not too worried about a correction. When it happens, I'll be buying.

     

    Since you focus on stocks that are falling, it helps when you talk about them specifically. It could happen, that those overvalued falling stocks could spread to the fairly valued stocks, and then we could see a bigger dip.

     

    Looking forward to that…. I like corrections, as they make for some great bargains.
    26 Mar, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    BSK - I commend you for taking money off the table. Having now buttered you up (she wrote with a smile :)), I don't see how you can even mention BAX and NDLS in the same sentence. Bax is one of the cheapest big pharma stocks around on a p/e basis, grows earnings by around 10% a year and has a decent balance sheet and growing dividend. I'm sure it's been frustrating for you to hold this stock that has essentially gone nowhere but sometimes that happens before a stock takes off to the upside.
    27 Mar, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    MARCH 26th Barron's: The Case Against this Stock Market
    written by John Kimelman

     

    "With the stock market sputtering lately, is this finally it—the end of the five-year bull market?
    A few notable stock-market minds think investors ought to be concerned.

     

    A BloombergView column written by William D. Cohan summarizes the latest thinking of Seth Klarman, the highly respected hedge-fund manager whose 1991 value-oriented investment book, Margin of Safety, sells on Amazon.com for $1,495 for a used copy.

     

    Writing in his latest investment letter, Klarman, the founder of Boston-based Baupost Group, argues that he sees artificially high prices everywhere he looks in the stock and bond markets.

     

    "A policy of near-zero short-term interest rates continues to distort reality with unknown but worrisome long-term consequences," writes Klarman.

     

    Klarman notes that the Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller has calculated that the stock market's price-to-earnings ratio is more than 25, "a level exceeded only three times before—prior to the 1929, 2000 and 2007 market crashes. Indeed, on almost any metric, the U.S. equity market is historically quite expensive."

     

    What's more, Klarman writes, "a skeptic would have to be blind not to see bubbles inflating in junk bond issuance, credit quality, and yields, not to mention the nosebleed stock market valuations of fashionable companies like Netflix (ticker: NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA)."

     

    And for what it's worth, Business Insider chief executive and top editor Henry Blodget feels similarly about stocks these days.

     

    Now I don't put Blodget, the former Merrill Lynch tech analyst who was forced out of the securities industry for publicly touting stocks he was privately knocking, in the same league as Klarman.

     

    Instead of investing billions of dollars of client money like Klarman, Blodget spends his days running a Website devoted to the markets and most anything that will generate clicks.

     

    But Blodget deserves his due: He is a thoughtful student of markets. And Tuesday, he penned a provocative piece saying that "stocks are now so expensive that they will likely deliver crappy performance over the next decade. I also believe that there is a decent chance of a 40%-to-50% crash in the next couple of years."

     

    Blodget writes that his view on stocks "is based almost entirely on valuation: According to most historically valid and cyclically adjusted pricing measures, stocks are at least 50% overvalued, and I don't think it will end up being 'different this time.' "

     

    That being said, Blodget is quick to point out that "despite this concern about stock prices, I am not selling my stocks (not yet, anyway). One reason I'm not selling is that valuation is almost useless as a timing indicator: Stocks could go a lot higher before they drop, especially if the Fed keeps frantically pumping money into Wall Street. Another reason I am not selling is that no other major asset classes are attractively priced either, so there's nothing else I want to buy."

     

    Not everyone is seeing bubbles everywhere.

     

    A piece on the Quartz site by investment writer Mark DeCambre makes the case that tech stocks in particular are not in a bubble despite all the action in the space right now, including Facebook's recent purchase of messaging company WhatsApp and King Digital's initial public offering.

     

    "Yesterday the market closed at 4,234.27—around 2% up on the year, but still about 22% shy of that 5,408 peak from 14 years ago," DeCambre writes. "Nor are we anywhere near the pace of tech IPOs seen during those manic days. In fact, between 1999 and 2000, a combined 794 tech execs took their companies public on either the Nasdaq or NYSE stock exchanges. By comparison, the 86 tech firms that went public during 2012 and 2013 looks relatively paltry. So far, only about 10 tech companies have gone public in 2014."

     

    Given the disappointing reception that the King Digital IPO received Wednesday by investors, the tech bubble talk might lose some of its urgency."

     

    27 Mar, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Now, here is why I can't embrace that piece - and disagree with Klarman to some extent.

     

    I think the Schiller p/e10 is a very poor measure of valuation. He's comparing today as similar to 1929 and 2000, but on a one year basis the p/e is very different. In 1999/2000 the S&P traded to around 30 times earnings - today it's just over 17.

     

    And here's something very important. Why are we looking at a 100 year plus way of valuing the market (Schiller's data goes back before 1900) when the tax treatment of stocks over the past two to three decades is far different than what it was in the past - and far more favorable to stocks. Shouldn't the valuation of the S&P be higher in an era when dividend tax rates and capital gains taxes are much lower than in the past?
    27 Mar, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    The shiller PE has been discussed here on SA in many articles ad nauseasm..

     

    Anyone following that PE as their sole guide to valuing the market has sat on the side lines for 5 years as it has shown the market overvalued throughout.

     

    Its another item the bears roll out to make their valuation case..
    I'll accept many negative arguments as to the market and where its trading at the moment , but that is one I do not accept in any shape or form..
    27 Mar, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    People are going to argue about this, but firms are de-risking in preparation for the conclusion of QE. Yes, QE has little to do with the Economy -- but it has a whole lot to do with the degree of "animal spirits" in the Stock Market. 2 different things.

     

    The problem is, if they bring down hard the risky stuff, history tells us forced margin selling -- yes there is a heck of a lot of margin out there -- may bring down the blue chip stuff too. Hence it spreads.

     

    I'm short a variety of the risky stuff, that changes day to day. For example I covered a large short in ((Nflx) for about + 35 or 40 points, because it showed basing action. If it squeezes hard, I'll scale short again. I cut my exposure by the close, to perhaps net 55% short, because I caught a big move in 3 days, and wish to keep it. I plan to keep selling rallies.

     

    To me this is a terrible scenario to invest in anything other than safe yield plays, or treasuries. Notice treasuries are going up? Against the call of everyone calling for higher interest rates?

     

    For stocks, why not essentially wait 6 months -- until the end of QE is fully digested -- so how the market absorbs it's conclusion.
    27 Mar, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    First off, when you say "firms" are de-risking, I assume you must mean investment firms, as regular companies don't much care about QE, one way or the other. Secondly, it's not apparent by the action across the board, and away from some wildly overpriced NASDAQ issues, that any kind of systemic alteration in behavior is occurring.

     

    There are always overpriced individual issues that can become vulnerable and, as always, playing a "mo-mo" short is a timing game. But, it's not clear at all that this represents some contagion in the markets. In fact, I'd argue that there is clearly rotation in play, as emerging markets and exporters have started to show some life, just as this NASDAQ weakness has appeared. If the sell-off in tech issues were to run and hide, I would not expect to see this behavior.

     

    It's been difficult to find good value plays in the market for some time, now, except by venturing abroad or looking for early entry to truly beaten-down areas, like commodities and some energy. Given the large market move last year, I am not surprised in the least to see a lot of churning and horizontal consolidation, as has marked the first quarter. Again, this should both be expected and is healthy. In such an environment, for however long it lasts, dividend and yield plays excel because they provide returns, even when prices are stagnant.

     

    But, again, I don't see this period as indicative of some major market turn because, still, economic indicators and market liquidity make any downside moves unlikely to gain significant traction. It would take some new exogenous event to ignite a major sell-off.

     

    If I were well invested in the markets, in no way would I be running for cash. However, if I had cash to deploy (and I do) I would be looking for a combination of yield plays and for already out-of-favor issues, rather than adding to any bellwether stocks that already had sizable advances last year, even if these pulled back modestly. In 2014, I believe a combination of carefully selected yield issues and deeper value plays will outperform any portfolio that looks anything like an index of the market or a composition of household-name stocks. And, such a portfolio will have much lower volatility should any market weakness present itself.
    27 Mar, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Margin debt put into perspective

     

    Much ado about nothing

     

    http://bit.ly/1iDztkV

     

    http://bit.ly/1bzMebb

     

    other than its the latest talking point as to why the market should go down ..
    27 Mar, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Markets can correct either by price action or "time" .

     

    The market is off 1% from its high and really hasn't gone anywhere in the past 3 months , so for the moment it appears "time" is the path .

     

    I have seen individual issues down 15% or more as they have corrected from their highs while the S & P has not.... My comments do NOT include stocks like TWTR , TSLA ,etc. To a LT investor these issues and their "stories" are meaningless regardless of the media and trader banter that they receive.. Simply put its "noise" .
    So IMO, the S & P is acting as I thought it might when the unwinding of QE took place.. equities are in the process of "adjusting" to what a more normalized interest rate environment looks like.

     

    As Tack mentioned again , that rotation is a healthy sign, and at the moment nothing that is overly concerning..

     

    The market may be in the process of forming an intermediate top in the near term or simply consolidating for the next leg higher.
    No one knows for sure, and anyone that says they do is being disingenuous.
    Whetherr it comes from the mouth of a long time respected seasoned money manager or a daytrader.

     

    27 Mar, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Another fact to bolster my theory that the Momentum stocks are"noise"

     

    (TWTR) is down 20% for the month ,, S & P now down about 2% ,

     

    These names hare hardly the leaders the media suggests they are.
    27 Mar, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Margin debt never matters until it does. In a rising market there are never any worries. But if the market starts to tumble for some reason, those getting out at any price because they are forced to can cause the effect of a snowball rolling downhill. This is what happened during the credit crisis. Margin calls triggered other margin calls.

     

    Certainly there are no credit issues today and it doesn't look like there is a recession in the offing. But one can never underestimate the potential of something out of left field. In the past this has typically been geopolitical.
    27 Mar, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    What 3 stocks would you put top on your list to research & buy in the next week or two...that yield some dividend? For either a long term hold, or a solid hold during the next year of Fed "whatevering."

     

    There's been so many good ideas thrown around. I get side tracked from one to the next. So if you had to narrow it down to your top 3? No BDCs please :).

     

    27 Mar, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    We're not that far off -- other than It's too early to tell IMO if the high beta selloff spreads or not.

     

    DE-Risking is by investment institutions; I'm seeing the same pattern of distribution show up daily. Simple selling without fanfare or cannons, or increase in volatility. Clearly institutional while the TV tells us to buy.

     

    There are several other indicators I follow that suggest caution; like the strength in the 30 year bond.
    27 Mar, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Can't even gap up today. Good news and selling in response in the futures.

     

    Something tells me I'm going to regret cutting my short exposure down at the close yesterday.
    27 Mar, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I'm sorry I bought into the index, if this is the start of a dip/correction. Would have been better to do my usual and wait to see what the next day would bring instead of end of day buy...

     

    Market could act differently once regular session is on...
    27 Mar, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Just get out and re-assess if you're no longer sure.
    27 Mar, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I took a small loss getting out... but it felt good to, so definitely the right move. ...and wow, it's down from there! So thank you - very timely suggestion!!
    27 Mar, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    I assume you are asking me.

     

    It's very tough for me to pick just three, and it's hard, also, because I don't know if you want safety, yield, growth opportunity, etc. All come with variable risks, depending on your objectives. I maintain a broad portfolio, so I am not focused on just a handful of "favorites." I tend to play across sectors, just so I won't have to choose a "favorite."

     

    That said, here's a short list of issues I like, for a combination of their yields and upside potential. Some of these may not be for those without some tolerance for risk or volatility:

     

    (SAN)
    (CIG)
    (BSBR)
    (OTCPK:RWEOY)
    (VALE)
    (IGR)
    (MPW)
    (STWD)
    27 Mar, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    I was asking everyone! I've seen good ideas from everyone.

     

    Ultimately I'll set up a broad portfolio with everything. Right now I'm getting that from index funds. To buy into stocks, I realized I'm not researching or acting on it as much as I could (in my view, I should)... so I went for to narrowing it down to 3 to start looking at... as a way to get started.

     

    It's like being a kid in a candy store. Too much and well, when I was younger I'd wind up buying nothing (my first savings, lol). In other words, narrowing to 3 is a motivational, or study technique, not a portfolio end goal.

     

    On needs:
    If the stock is a long term buy solid expectations for 10-20 years, then volatility is fine. I don't want to buy in to rate-sensitive right now since I expect much better entry points in the next 6 months. I tend to growth more than yield, but right now with the market sideways, I'd like some yield to make it easier to slip into the stock. I'd rather very run of the mill, where I don't need expertise to figure it out -- since I'm new to individual stock assessment. I don't want to buy in, then discover something I never thought to look for. Does that help you narrow down suggestions?

     

    Much appreciated :)!
    27 Mar, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    (RIG) has been and continues to be on my radar screen. 5+% yield, I currently own it.

     

    A detailed analysis here by Bret Jensen

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I'll have other thoughts on this topic later.. :)
    27 Mar, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,
    I will now add (CSCO) 3.7% , (VZ) 4.6%

     

    An MLP i own & like at this price (TGP) a play on the global LNG demand.

     

    I avoided the banks , but if you are interested some regional banks have great yields if u change your mind..
    27 Mar, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Buyers fight back. I covered most of my exposure on that panic break. Time for a bounce.

     

    Still holding (IWM) puts and (http://bit.ly/nAQRVs) calls; covered most outright stock shorts for now, great prices.

     

    I'll be planning to re-scale in on this bounce.
    27 Mar, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -Macro

     

    What did you use to know it was time to cover? (Is it something you can quantify?)
    27 Mar, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Nice squeeze. 45+ points on the nasdaq. I am starting to slowly sell again -- a little. Mainly index futures on (QQQ)

     

    Added to (AMZN) short too, refuses to rally. Resold a little (TWTR) at 46
    27 Mar, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Being careful as some of these stocks are now oversold. Covered (YELP) at 75 and it just traded 79-80!
    27 Mar, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    L, this article talks about 20 companies that should be a core of your portfolio, except Fannie & Freddie.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I would compile a list of at least 30 companies or more that you want to own. I own around 50+ so it's like managing my own mutual fund. However, it gives me diversity & safety, as each position is around 2% of my total portfolio.

     

    Here's what is extremely important. Only buy the investments that are under or fairly valued. What this means is, don't buy anything with a high PE ratio. Look at (IBM) (VALE) (COP) (T). All of them have very low PE ratios. Now you have to evaluate the business prospects. Are earnings expected to go up?

     

    Some companies rarely become fairly valued. (JNJ) is a good example of this.

     

    Next, decide how much $ you want to deploy each month. This will help you dollar cost average your positions. If the market dips, you could put a little extra in that month.

     

    Decide what kind of investor you want to be. Are you planning to harvest dividends? Or swing trade (IMO the worst way to be).

     

    Over the long term, DGI will do several things for you. It will allow you to construct a portfolio that makes money and you will end up with a portfolio that over time, will grow. Until you retire, when those dividends will provide you with a constant cash flow to live on.

     

    If you want to be 80% DGI and 20% something else, that's fine too.

     

    I own DGI traditional stocks, and growth stocks. Also for yield, I have some BDC's, Reits, etc.

     

    I see plenty of good stocks to buy today.
    27 Mar, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Thanks for the article! I'll check it out.

     

    Would it be possible for you to suggest just 3 stocks that you'd suggest buying soon? Anything very solid, mainstream, long term buys.
    27 Mar, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Well, if I had to pick just 3, they would all be low PE value stocks.

     

    (COP) (VZ) (VALE)

     

    Next on my wish list would be, when they are as under valued as possible (IBM) (CSX) (BGS) (JNJ) (T) (GE) (LMT) (NOC) (BA) (MSFT) (KMB) (PG) (GIS) (CL) (CLX) (DNKN) (CBRL) (MCK) (MCD) (WAG) (CVS) (XOM) (MO) (MMM) (BAC) (JPM) (UNP) (OAK) (KMP) (BX) (BLK) (KKR) (MAIN) (PTY) (PSEC) (TCAP) (HCI) (DFT) (CMI) (UTX) (PEP) (KO) (SBUX) (BUD) (STZ) (FL) (M) and any other solid company that makes money & pays a dividend….there are so many. Check Fish's CCC list.

     

    Speculative stocks…..buy when they are cheap! (FB) (PCLN) (GOOG) and whatever else you think will make money in the coming years.
    27 Mar, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    should say, I limit speculative stocks to 5 % of my investments, or less.

     

    they can be very dangerous, would not buy right now because they could fall more
    27 Mar, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    That's a great article. Helps give direction. Lots of ideas on current market mood too... to go with the current discussion below :).

     

    Tack, FG, BSF

     

    Thank you for the ideas. That actually did get me oriented again. Along with the MW "market map" (Tack posted.)
    27 Mar, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Wow. I was set up for much more of a squeeze. We are selling off -- led now by that core the experts are saying to buy; financials now -- yes a flattening yield curve does not help these names --- and I am much lighter on my short exposure. Oh well. Should we still be piling into the banks?

     

    Short (AMZN); (IWM) via puts, long (TLT) calls. Subject to change.
    27 Mar, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Any flattening barely noticeable:

     

    http://yhoo.it/12upwOp
    27 Mar, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    M,
    "Should we still be piling into the banks?"

     

    Not at this time , the time to really " pile" in was earlier in '12 and again in '13 when the Fed announced tapering

     

    many of the banks i follow just made new all time highs,,. they were overextended in the "short term" and are now simply pulling back to support.

     

    (JPM) & (BAC) will make new highs down the road.. the LT move isn't over in these names by any means.. They are in solid uptrends..

     

    The only one i would consider now is (C) , on an overreaction to this news,, let the dust settle in the 45-46 level to eventually trade up to around 55-60

     

    Commentary directed to the Long & intermediate term investor, no meant for day or swing traders.
    27 Mar, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Banks with future upside aren't all located between the Atlantic and Pacific (well, at least in North America):

     

    (SAN)
    (http://bit.ly/1dybxAF)
    (http://bit.ly/1dybAwt)
    (http://bit.ly/yvQe1Y)
    (http://bit.ly/1dybAww)
    (http://bit.ly/1dybxAL)
    (http://bit.ly/1dybxAP)
    27 Mar, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - To clarify

     

    I asked for top 3 to get myself started. I'm stuck at -researching-, not at buying, not at diversifying!! Because it's been too many to focus on. I spent a few hours, see a reason not to buy a stock and get overwhelmed.

     

    When I'm stuck, I look for solutions to get unstuck and moving.

     

    Step one: break the task down. So instead of looking for a diversified portfolio of everything. I want to start with RESEARCHING 1-2 stocks. People's absolute favorites -right now-. So that's why I'm asking -- do you have 3 stocks to buy in the next week or two as your favorites?

     

    I've been diversified my whole investing life of 30+ years. All the advice on diversifying... is falling on agreement.

     

    :)
    27 Mar, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Research (EZPW), its easy to understand and terribly mis priced.
    28 Mar, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    Thanks! It's added onto my list!
    2 Apr, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Some people hate DGI style portfolio building. Their argument is that first, they will make tons of money buying growth companies or whatever the mo-mo stock of the day is. Then after making wayyyy more money than a steady DGI guy ever could, they will convert to DGI in retirement, so that those dividends supplement their income.

     

    Well, if you were a DGI guy from the beginning, here's what could happen. You could have been buying (MSFT) type stocks from day 1, when they were cheap. So let's say you bought (MSFT) when it was $20. Now it's close to $40. So instead of say 200 shares today, you could have had 400. That's double the dividend income, obviously - but only if you had bought it back when it was cheap.

     

    Here's another example, (LMT). Five years ago, it was $80 a share, now it's double that. Oh & the dividend? $5.32 a share. I sure would rather own 400 shares than 200. Plus, those last 5 years that you didn't own (LMT)? Didn't earn the dividend either.

     

    See what I mean? It's rather simple. Why wait to buy dividend growth stocks….you will own more shares 20 years from now by starting today. Keep accumulating….your retirement will be so much better.
    27 Mar, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Who's buying right here?? Just curious!
    27 Mar, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    I did a little buying this morning near the opening. My first foray into India - purchased epi. A little late, but it is feeling more and more like there's a rotation out of the US and into em. And I liked the look of the relative chart.

     

    http://bit.ly/1iEuqRi

     

    I also bot a small number of brk 125/130 May bull call spreads - had a 3:1 risk/reward.
    27 Mar, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    DD, India is already looking up. They are electing a new party & leader so the gov't is changing….hopefully for the better. People are more confidant about the future than they have been in years. Their stock market is up too.
    27 Mar, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I'm always buying, sometimes selling.

     

    Keeping a pile of cash because things could get interesting soon.
    27 Mar, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    (GILD) rolling over too.
    27 Mar, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Dot-coms, social media and biotech..... live by the sword; die by the sword.
    27 Mar, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    That is one reason, I decided to not get greedy here & sold the upside calls against my (GILD) position .

     

    Continue to like the stock LT , its getting punished like a high flyer,, the forward PE is less than the market PE...
    27 Mar, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Just to defer the "trolls" out there.

     

    I am not making ANY kind of big selloff market call. Period.

     

    I follow and trade price. I called a selloff several days ago. We've had a good selloff in the IWM and QQQ. Now we're oversold, so I'm back neutral. Risk reward has changed. I've taken profits and and now watching. So if we rally -- thats great for me now.
    27 Mar, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Covered AMZN too, now just options. Long QQQ's for a bounce here.
    27 Mar, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Boy; out of the Q's. no bounce.
    27 Mar, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    17 minutes- That's interesting , and shows that we are on different planets when it comes to "investing"..

     

    Good Luck :)
    27 Mar, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    So what?

     

    I'd rather make money than carry a superior attitude into losses.
    27 Mar, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    I was just trying to make a point.. about the different styles..

     

    that's all --

     

    let me go back to "investing" now with my superior attitude and ring up some more losses.. :)
    While we are on the topic, maybe a good idea to post the prices of these 'trades" to show me if they really work , and also teach me how to use that strategy to make money over a period of time. :)

     

    U know what they say ---words are kinda cheap.. :)
    27 Mar, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    If you don't like what I post, tough. I'll trade the way it works for me. Don't like it, don't have to read it.
    27 Mar, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough.. I usually do avoid commentary with no backup info..

     

    a reminder from yesterday .. lets just stay away from the "personal" stuff please ..

     

    from the superior attitude " loser " in this crowd
    27 Mar, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    To butt in :), if that's okay. I think FG in this case wasn't trying to criticize your style. Just was eye opening to him to see how different it is. You're a trader... he's very much a long term buy and hold, avoid all quick moves.

     

    I can see very much how you read it as critical... but I can also see how it wasn't likely meant to be so.

     

    For the rest of us -- it's absolutely great to have both of you here. You add all sorts of trading ideas that you don't see posted often, at least not on SA. For myself, I'd enjoy any details you can give on how you're making decisions. It seems like a mysterious box :), and be fun to learn from. Even if I never trade -- I think it can help long term investors with picking entrance/exit points too.
    27 Mar, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    OK, just noticed today's screaming buy (even better earlier): (FULL)

     

    The company's shares in full panic mode today because one of their client companies, Cannabis Solutions, is halted. FULL agreed to buy $30MM in convertible notes from CS but only $7.5MM is funded, and all the loan is secured by real estate.

     

    Good opportunity to pick up some shares or sell puts.
    27 Mar, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    Thanks

     

    looking at (FULL) right now..
    27 Mar, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    I was looking at their etd last summer - looks like the panic hasn't spread over to that yet.
    27 Mar, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » --

     

    Any conclusions on (FULL)? Sure was a drop - 12% at one point.
    27 Mar, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Better look again. Dropped 25% at the low and rallied back to -15%.

     

    In my opinion, it's a good buy because they have no exposure to CANN, but were mangled by CANN's halt anyway. Selling OTM $7.50 puts seems like easy money to me.
    27 Mar, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    Opened a position @ 7.42 yesterday

     

    Thanks :)
    28 Mar, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T, FG

     

    Opened @ 7.66 just now. We'll see. :) Nice dividend to wait.
    28 Mar, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Ron Insana's latest article, it's timely

     

    http://cnb.cx/OYwEAQ
    27 Mar, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I have a really big problem. It's constantly occurring. Causing my cash balance to increase, almost daily.

     

    Dividends! They just keep getting paid, gosh darn it.

     

    Sigh. The problems of a serious dividend growth investor ; )

     

    I'm sitting on so much cash, it's getting hard waiting for the next good dip.

     

    I wish you all had my problem, I really do….even the shorties.
    27 Mar, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Reasons to be defensive / market indicators of defensiveness:

     

    1. Long bonds breakout above resistance / rising ratio vs junk bonds.

     

    2. XLY (consumer discretionary) turning sharply lower vs XLP ( consumer staples)

     

    3. (IWM) falling outright and especially VS (SPX)

     

    4. Poor IPO performance/ poor quality IPO's and secondaries.

     

    5. Extended S&P 500 churning. Generally large, volatile sideways movements after a large advance; resolve to the downside.

     

    6. Poor leadership from the Financials and Retail. (XLF) (XRT)

     

    7. Extreme sentiment and complacency. Low levels of fear / anxiety. Bullish arrogance.

     

    8. High levels of insider selling / secondaries.

     

    9. Absolutely horrible "junk bond" debt covenants. Issuance of these "covenant lite" loans -- has spiked to the highest level in history.

     

    10. Record low available cash to S&P 500 market cap ratio.

     

    So far the market has rotated while the former leaders have cracked. However; of all the reasons above the persistant strength in the long bond is most telling. It is certainly forecasting corrective activity; and quite possibly a future recession. With the current fiscal policy and the Fed pulling back, such an event cannot be discounted.

     

    I would be watching for a close below SPX 1840 to confirm corrective activity. I am positioned as follows: Short (IWM) via futures and options; Long (TLT) via futures and options; short various high - PE stocks that change frequently. Long (MBT) (AGNC).

     

    Currently very small short and long stock positions until / if 1840 is breached. Then shorts will be increased.
    27 Mar, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    You keep insisting you're not negative on the SPX, then you post this. Doesn't suggest much conviction, does it?
    27 Mar, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    M - I agree with much of what you said. However, I believe you are reading too much into the strength of the long bond. It's clear the developed world continues in a slow growth, low inflation environment with deleveraging ongoing. And I would be much more concerned if jnk was weakening relative to tlt if jnk was falling - but it has actually been rising and stronger than the spx.

     

    It's interesting that yesterday both the Nasdaq and Russell hit and bounced off their 100 day moving averages and the Spx couldn't even get down to the 50 dma.

     

    It's possible the spx will just continue to chop around short term, waiting for earnings which are quickly approaching. The large banks will report in two weeks, the industrials beginning the following week.
    28 Mar, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    All,

     

    I find that Anyone that has participated on the long side of this market and harvested gains, is using caution here, and certainly not piling into equities at this time . rather many are sitting in some cash or participating with intermediate positions as the rotation continues..

     

    There seems to be a common theme especially here on SA , that anyone that has been bullish and been rewarded for doing so , is sitting back fat dumb and happy and will now get slaughtered when the correction comes..

     

    Nothing could be further from the truth .. It seems that most of that type of thinking is prevalent among those that have sat on the sidelines or worse yet tried to short the market along the way to these levels.

     

    In my view trying to call a top or time the correction is a guess at this point , has proven futile , and certainly by the time many get that trade right they may simply "Break even" after all of the failed attempts.

     

    We all realize that stocks have come a long way , and there is certainly room for a good size correction.

     

    The cautionary tales that many write about will eventually be right , but in the meantime it seem s like everyone wants to be that hero that calls it exactly.. I wish them the best of Luck ..

     

    I know from my experience "hero's" usually get carried out feet first.. and so far many that called the tops at S & P 1700 - 1800 and positioned thmeselves that way are toast.

     

    With the LT trend still firmly in place I would rather pick sectors that have been torched and come down to support with No fundamental change in their stories as an intermediate trade or hold.. Others may decide to sit back and wait .. It depends on one's expertise & risk tolerance ....
    Example
    E & P oils that sold off , have moved nicely in the last 2 days... and they are inexpensive at these levels.
    (PXD) corrected 10% , to support at its 200 day MA and in the last 2 days has come 4%
    Happy Investing
    28 Mar, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Check out (GILD) today? What price did you pay -- just for credibility.
    28 Mar, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Could not agree more, but I wanted to throw out one other thought for digestion and/or discussion by the assembled multitudes:

     

    I see lots of posts, all over SA, from commenters and authors, who say they're "raising cash." Some say 20%, some 30%, some 50%, or more. Personally, I find this an insidious form of market timing in its own right, especially so in today's zero-yield money-market environment.

     

    In the "old" days, one could harbor cash and still get paid 4%, 5%, 6%, or more, merely holding risk-free cash. Today, that's not true at all. So, using the very same arguments that you often cite, that it's impossible to call tops or corrections, I find myself entirely unwilling to sit on major piles of nonperforming cash.

     

    So, instead of going to cash, I merely rotate and increase the exposure of my portfolio to issues that would resist or even run counter to any market correction, like preferred shares and selected bond funds. These investments, even now, continue to throw off sizable yields for me and don't necessitate making me make any timing bets on a correction, if and when such occurs. If the market corrects, and common equities fall, then, I'll rotate back toward those issues, where I find value, and reduce my exposure to any defensive plays.

     

    In all cases, I try to keep my cash balances down to 5% - 15%, at the maximum, recognizing it as entirely dead money.
    28 Mar, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Im one of the most credible folks here on SA my friend.. show me another author/ commentator that has his/her portfolio here and their thoughts on the market for anyone to dispute . along with stock suggestions along the way

     

    Here is the comment the day I bought (GILD) when it came down to it's 200 day MA - the 24th

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Bot @ 69.70 low for that day was 68.81

     

    & Here is the comment when I sold the April 75 calls against that position for 1.53. 3/27

     

    as i didn't feel the stock was about to run away.
    that yields 2% for a 22 day Holding period and 6% if called away

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My breakeven is 68.13 which is below the 200 day MA and below the previous low..

     

    IF that is violated , I have options to either sell another call against that position, or sit on a stock that I do like for the LT. Or just bail .. & possibly buy it back cheaper..

     

    I always have an Exit strategy -- :)

     

    BTW I used some $ from (PXD),(CXO),(WLL) as they ALL appreciated 25% THIS year--- as I decided to take some of that money off the table..
    & yes that is mentioned in the blog & other commentary... & I would say pretty credible ..

     

    Happy investing
    28 Mar, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    I've taken the other side. Short (GILD)
    28 Mar, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GILD)

     

    Two different trades. One is a long term investment. The other for shorting short term. You can both make good money on this!

     

    Why is (GILD) coming down? Part of the bio sector selloff or did I miss something stock-specific? That whole Egypt thing, is that expected to take the companies profit margin lower when they have to reduce drug price stateside?

     

    Macro- how will you know when to cover?
    28 Mar, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (LINE)'s up 2.5% today

     

    Looks like the short raid is losing steam. It's been a most entertaining game to watch...

     

    Now I understand that early "panic feeling" that I couldn't bring myself to take seriously since it didn't match my view of the stock OR news. But was worrisome because it all wasn't making sense. Now it makes sense :).
    28 Mar, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    Yes i do agree, and we have had this discussion before,

     

    You have converted me to your income style of investing to slowly dip in there and put money to work, rather than sit on the cash..

     

    recent example is (FULL) , and some of the preferreds you have mentioned here.

     

    so far that is working well as that money has found a home with very nice yields.. ;) , and I may not put that money back into equities as it is all profit.. :)
    28 Mar, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    ummmm...I think at this stage of the cycle; question might be when will longs know to cover.

     

    Don;t get me wrong. Shorting is a tough, tough game. Look at today -- BS stories about a massive China Stimulus . Big boys float this kind of stuff and then are unloading on it. Total garbage.
    28 Mar, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    I can also add for any others that are interested, that I believe we may now see the shares drift down to the 50 wk MA @ 65.50- 66.

     

    that would still not upset the LT trend in place (for the investor) but will shake out the traders that are long IF/when it breaks the 200 day MA.. And it may be at that point i buy back the Aprils and sell the May options to protect the position..

     

    More negative news today.. it is in the crosshairs of the Shorts --- so it surely can drift lower.

     

    but for the investor it may spell huge LT opportunity.
    as its now selling with a forward PE less than the overall market with much better earnings growth than the average stock ..
    28 Mar, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M,

     

    Cute :). How do you decide it's time to cover on a stock like this? Even if that's a while from now...
    28 Mar, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Plenty of negativity, in all of the biotechs now.. shorts have jumped in , and folks are taking profits on the sector that has run very far..

     

    IMO stocks like (GILD) (CELG) are being lumped in with many biotechs that have little or no earnings and are pure speculation,,, IMO that is not the case with these two , In the very near future (GILD) has the chance to earn north of 5.50 a share, and that may be a conservative est.
    28 Mar, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    See , u r not "Burnt ", maybe just a little charred ;)
    28 Mar, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Charred -- I'll take that. It's a better fit.

     

    I'd looked at and liked (GILD) and (CELG) when you first posted them... but not at those prices. I'm glad I waited.
    28 Mar, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    As I said -- that gap up was an absolute gift to reduce risk. This day is working out pretty well.
    28 Mar, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    IMO -- Biotechs are done. The Market says so.

     

    Instead of imparting my opinion on the market, like the experts who are much smarter than I, I just try to listen.

     

    The rationalize-rs will try to explain that this selloff is "unjustified" whatever that means. Fine with me. Argue with the market's decision.
    28 Mar, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Who cares? The PE ratio is changing before your eyes on these stocks.
    28 Mar, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M,

     

    It's justified. I looked at the sector but only briefly because it looked high. So glad I didn't jump into it a month ago.

     

    When you listen to the market -- what clues are you listening to? Tech stuff?
    28 Mar, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Listen to FG. He's much more intelligent than I am. I don't know much. I'm an ex pit trader. As they told us down there, if we weren't in the pit we'd be truck drivers.
    28 Mar, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    FG's not picking on you... no need for you to pick on him :).

     

    I'm asking because I see you get a sense of direction and timing ... and also know to get out when it's not working. So I'm curious (and others have been too)... what you're doing.

     

    You're our resident trader, (or would be truck driver?). So it's a chance to listen to something completely different than the usual SA commentary. ...share your skills :). It's interesting stuff.
    28 Mar, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    ----Sigh------

     

    I "test" markets. I might take 4 losses with a theme before I get the timing right. Obviously shorting here anything is the deeply contrarian move. For example, I've shorted (GS) at least 3 times this year; and covered due to being stopped out or it didn't " feel right". Today is number 4, as again GS displays noticeable weakness and moves towards key support. Will it work? Don't know yet. But if things play out the way I think they might; (GS) will get hurt. And the softness in the stock reinforces that view.
    28 Mar, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Oooh....

     

    Testing is a key piece. It's trying till the throw goes over the plate.

     

    Still you're picking up the right areas to give a try to... and some sense of when to start it. Good luck!

     

    I've had a few very successful trades... but on others either got out of the run up too soon when it was near even, or stopped trying (anything) for a while after a fail. I need to get more of my core longs set up first anyway.

     

    Sigh?

     

    Be happy <wrinkle's brow>?
    28 Mar, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Just curious, did you cover the GILD short? Looking at the daily chart, the price and volume charts sure look like a short-term capitulation to me.
    28 Mar, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    i respect your style but that is what I was trying to impart earlier.. yes one can always spot a situation and make money short or long,, but sometimes when going against the LT trend , by the time it finally hits just right , its a simple "break even"

     

    I've been there and done that ..

     

    With my (GILD) position , i am not good enough to pick the exact Bottom,, so in this attempt with the sector being so weak , i played the covered call game..

     

    admittedly here---- i was very early.. so I'll have to adjust now to make the position work..

     

    and admittedly, The technicals stink , but I believe in the fundamentals .. so we'll see , & i understand in your view the fundamentals don't matter in your trade..

     

    :)
    28 Mar, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    "...E & P oils that sold off , have moved nicely in the last 2 days... and they are inexpensive at these levels..."

     

    All of a sudden the Sector went from red/pink to Green.
    The downtrend may be over. Small caps should follow, IMO.
    Regards,
    28 Mar, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Really. Break even. So you know my account statements too. Wow. FYI; We haven't even moved yet basis SPX; and I am having a great start to the year. Not sure but I think I'm up 15% so far -- with zero leverage.
    28 Mar, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Nope, I see that too but its a modest position. Might trim a little at 68 if it gets back there -- keep the rest. My focus really is the momo stocks.
    28 Mar, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I was talking generalities and used your example as just that..

     

    As I believe that is what happens to most traders.. and as i said in that comment i have experienced just that ..

     

    if you are the exception , congrats..
    28 Mar, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Studies show 96% of people lose money trading in multiple years. A few more than 4% will succeed in a single year, then fail after that.

     

    So the generality is important for investors to know. I'd go broke if I tried "investing" by purely trading, lol. The stats make it easier for those who should be long term investors to focus on that.
    28 Mar, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . sinedo

     

    That's interesting... energy is improving... so Smallcaps follow...?

     

    Energy was down already so I figured it was just coming back to life. Smallcaps can still see more down before the de-risking mood is over.
    28 Mar, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Thats true. Most people should'nt do it. I would never encourage it to others. What I am advocating is getting more defensive here.

     

    That's from 15 years experience trading full time. You see patterns repeat and we are entering a de-risking mode here, IMO. No - coincidence rumours of China stimulus, Europe stimulus. Flood the sheeple with "good news" while you sell quietly.

     

    My advice -- spend less time looking at the SPX than the sub- indexes. Thats where the clues are.
    28 Mar, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - M, or anyone

     

    If I wanted to get more defensive here...
    I have give or take - 20% SPY, 20% IWM, 5% DOW, 5% individual shares. What defensive move would make sense?

     

    I'm thinking...ride it out with this money, and don't try to time it by selling part of the indices (it's tempting). Call being in cash "defensive." While looking for good buys with yields, & take buying in very slowly right now.
    28 Mar, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    De-risking... is almost always a correction or could be simple rotation for months?
    28 Mar, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Anybody who was long techs, social media, biotechs and anything else that was on a tear should have been gradually rotating into energy, commodities and emerging markets as they moved lower. Now, the shoe is moving to the other foot, as all those forgotten areas are getting a bid, while the high-fliers are coming back to earth.

     

    This all as regular as rain.
    28 Mar, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Brazil's (EWZ) general index

     

    is up at least 15% from the bottom in a straight climb. Better to wait for a pullback... or get in now?
    28 Mar, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    This question illustrates a recurrent problem I see for investors who become too focused on the short term.

     

    EWZ has fallen in three years just over 50%. Often when issues remain in a lengthy downtrend investors become fearful of averaging in because "it might go lower." So, they wait. Then, when a reversal appears, they become hamstrung because it popped up a few percent, so they want to wait, again, lest it fall back a dollar or two. All the while, it's forgotten that the issue is selling at $40 less than it was three years back.

     

    Plus or minus a couple dollars is meaningless in the grand scheme of things. If one believes Brazil will rebound, then it's a family-size buy; if one doesn't share that view, then, the couple dollars either way are equally meaningless.

     

    Moral of the story: Decide what you believe and where value lies. Don't get paralyzed.
    28 Mar, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    I still don't like brazil. I don't like industrial commodities, and I don't like the govt, which is favored to be re- elected.

     

    To me, this is nothing more than hedge fund short covering. Yes, it's cheap, but that's not enough.
    28 Mar, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Anyone else think (EWZ) is a hedge fund short covering?

     

    Anyone else buying Brazil in general? (VALE) is mostly international income isn't it?

     

    Tack,

     

    That's what I wanted to hear -- whether that run up was signs of an overbought type run-up that should be waited on. Or just the climbing process of a recovery... buy in any time you want. Thanks.
    28 Mar, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    You ain't a value investor. It's not a "trade."
    28 Mar, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    I meant small cap "Oils". The big ones moving up, together, should suggest the small ones will follow, as those watching jump on the "train" (if the trend is reversing). There's value in the Oils, but if the Fund herd moved out of them, they created a "trend". If one of them turns, the tendency is to follow, and none want to be last.
    Regards,
    29 Mar, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    I made a big bet on VALE, and it jumped immediately; worrying about taxes, I hesitated and didn't take profits. Just as fast, it dumped, and I've been holding on to my expectation that the World economy is going to move into a big recovery. I'm still holding, telling myself that the chart says it has bottomed, but then I check "Recommendations", and I see Merrill (BofA ML) with a Buy recommendation. I have never seen them recommend anything that was not a contrary indicator. http://bit.ly/1jHIXzw would bet they want to sell their VALE holdings.
    On the other hand, that's their business model, but they are usually wrong.
    29 Mar, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » sinedo

     

    "I've been holding on to my expectation that the World economy is going to move into a big recovery. "

     

    You may be a couple years early --- but I do believe it's going to happen.

     

    For all the worrying and recession effects... every time the world's been this way, it's moved out it. Only stopper will be geopolitical...
    31 Mar, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    The title says "cautious". I am outright negative on (IWM). SPX weakness remains only a possibility; so I am neutral on that index -- for now. I'll gain more conviction when the SPX resolves.
    27 Mar, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2379) | Send Message
     
    A reasonably intelligent person with some study can pick a winner.

     

    But it takes more than ability to know when it is time to take some profits and stuff the mattress, and actually doing it.
    27 Mar, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1pAI4G7
    27 Mar, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Very nice table attachment for looking for crashes.

     

    For the market currently:
    I've gathered you are expecting a decline in (IWM). You are cautious on SnP, waiting to see lower than 1840 to confirm a correction is happening. Neither of those are a crash.

     

    For a crash, you're not ruling out a recession if more signs build but aren't predicting one at this time yet (based on current signs.)
    27 Mar, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Institutions & retail investors are derisking... as tapering is here to stay & ZIRP will be ending... makes good sense to me.

     

    (IWM) as more decliners than advancers, & plenty near 52 week lows. SnP is still solidly advancing with much more 52 week highs than lows.
    27 Mar, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Excellent checklist. I think we see the Market satisfying many (most?) of the criteria. I fear the Fed is about to see what happens when they tighten. Bernanke tried it, and quickly changed his mind. One small foot in the water, without announcing they've begun "tapering", and see what happens. Then, we'll see how much scared money is in the Market.

     

    Ukraine scare will cause a drop, scaring the Market and the Fed.
    Regards,
    28 Mar, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On the checklist

     

    ...sentiment isn't there IMO. I don't see most people investing. I still see a lot of "is this a correction or something more" articles...

     

    I'm still with BSF that bigger dips are probably coming in the next month or two.

     

    Depends on earnings! So far I'm seeing a lot of "met earnings, missed on revenue." That's middling to me...
    28 Mar, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    I would eliminate "crash" from your investing vocabulary. They are so rare as not an event to predict by anyone. Derisking is totally correct.

     

    As for recessions, I can't predict anything, but the bond market often does.
    27 Mar, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    THis is an Absolute Gift to reduce risk. I'm increased short exposure on this rally.
    28 Mar, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    (GILD) selling off again.
    28 Mar, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Shorts -- (YELP) (P) (NFLX) (X)
    28 Mar, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    SHORT (GILD) AT $70.00
    28 Mar, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Added to (GILD) short 69.70
    28 Mar, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Short (GS) --- again.
    28 Mar, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    (GS) below 160 is a big issue for the market.
    28 Mar, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Sorry guys; Its been a very good but very hectic week. The more these poor closes repeat; the greater chance we break down for real instead of this chop shop.
    28 Mar, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    The market is not going to break down on technicals, not with earnings coming up. They will set the tone in the next few weeks.
    28 Mar, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    I would prefer not to day trade but it's necessary to protect myself; until / IF support is decisively broken. Then a trend change may be signaled and I can hold positions with more confidence.
    28 Mar, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Cut (GILD) short in half. Keeping sizes until very tight control. + 1.75 on that portion .
    28 Mar, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    long term, holding a stock can be extremely profitable

     

    (LMT) held for 10 years $45.75 to $160.54 today; plus the dividends….not bad.

     

    (PCLN) 10 years ago $27 today $1191.71 even better.

     

    I plan on buying more (GILD) and holding it, along with my other stocks, for a very long time. And the dividends, almost $60,000 just this year, ain't bad either.
    28 Mar, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Nice div stream, u may have to change your name here

     

    to Blue sky Diva.. :)
    28 Mar, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    thanks F&G, those dividends can really add up
    31 Mar, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2379) | Send Message
     
    Whenever I hear all the bull vs bear chatter about tops and bottoms I can't help but think how much easier it is to detect an up or down trend.

     

    Its not so hard to figure out if an elevator is moving up or down but not that easy to know how many floors 'til he next stop.

     

    Thing is you can get somewhere as long as you are moving either way.

     

    http://bit.ly/1i2kDTe
    28 Mar, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » EconomicA

     

    Must say... that does look like the ride we've been on lately...

     

    It would be better to reframe in terms of trend. So we're in an uptrend. Question is, is it reversing significantly enough to be a downtrend. Answer IMHO - not really. Maybe for a few months... not longer term.
    28 Mar, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2379) | Send Message
     
    The point I am driving at is that safest place to make an entry is in the midrange while it is still in transition rather than wracking your brain trying to figure out when it will start or stop like the rest of the herd, IMO. Kinda like politics except lead from the rear, lol.
    28 Mar, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    It is the safest place to enter. But how do you know where you are on the curve - at the midrange or at a reversal?

     

    Or more importantly for long term investing... any entry is fine as long as it's not a highly over exuberant top.
    28 Mar, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    to oversimplify. i first determine the type of market i am in.. in this case , i believe u know that I believe we are in a multi year secular bull market that has plenty of room to run.

     

    But I also know that will not be without declines and missteps along the way..

     

    Since we have come to this point in the ride , we "may" be at one of those stopping points EA has mentioned. Who knows.

     

    There is no evidence to suggest the LT trend has changed direction. What many fail to realize or understand is that the S & P can travel all the way back to the 1560 , some 300 points lower , and the LT trend bull trend would still be in place.. Yet one could only imagine how investors will feel, never mind what the pundits will be saying !!

     

    At the moment , I am looking for special situations.. Like a (TGT) ,as an example of a div aristocrat that was/is on sale.

     

    One can also play the "rotation" game that is going on now..
    The oils rallied hard earlier in the year have sold off 12- 15% , and their fundamental stories are still intact.. they now have attracted money that more than likely is coming out of biotech and the like...

     

    with that; I may be early in my thinking , but I decided to add a biotech name that I believe has good growth prospects which has sold off hard... like a (GILD) ...and in my view is reasonably valued given its growth.
    29 Mar, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Nice explanation...! Wasn't there a 20% correction in 2011 (when I wasn't looking)? For a big fall to indicate trouble to me -- it'd have to come with economic problems like huge unemployment, or every other bank I use going bankrupt (boy did that mess up my taxes that year).
    31 Mar, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Yes that is correct.. from July to oct '11
    1 Apr, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2379) | Send Message
     
    The idea here which is easier to visualize than to put in words is to watch for opportunities to improve averages by taking advantage of excursions within what can at times be fairly predictable bounds for short term fluctuations, a sort of a dynamic rebalance in the short term that can incrementally improve yields within an overall trend over a period of time.

     

    With a good understanding of the trading range and the sort of things that affect movement this can work like knowing when to throttle back and when to push forward.
    28 Mar, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » EA

     

    If a stock is in a trading range where the fluctuations are predictable, then might as well buy near the bottom, and skip needing to rebalance.

     

    Problem can be when a stock is undervalued by an event, it can be hard to know what it's range is.
    31 Mar, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Aren't we talking about "timing", here?
    You took profits, hopefully, and now what to do?
    My only "truth" about the Market is that it cycles, usually by Sectors, in trends orchestrated by the big WS Broker/Banks. They run 'em up and take 'em down, as their primary business model, usually with (free) recommendations to Sell when they were ready to accumulate, and Buy when they were ready to take profits.
    I hate conspiracy theories, but found the data supported my observations, time and again. You will see they have to upgrade, sometimes, to be able to downgrade shortly thereafter.

     

    Watching "recommendations" can be a highly profitable tool.
    http://bit.ly/1hK32Ow
    My approach is to look for over-sold value in the New Lows, and cross-check Broker recommendations for contrary ones. Sell ratings at the bottom and vice versa.
    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    I have always found shocking intelligence value in these lists, and your brain will see "TREND PATTERNS" that will surprise you, giving you valuable insight.
    Regards,
    29 Mar, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - sinedo

     

    That makes perfect sense; I'm not surprised you've had success with it.

     

    I know from a former local brokerage manager (who's close to the family) that recommendations are based on the legal depts directives, not the stock's value. I wouldn't consider your concept conspiracy theory at all.

     

    If you see any - feel free to share :). We can all jump on and drive up the prices, all by ourselves:)
    31 Mar, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Has anyone else tried something like this?
    1 Apr, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2379) | Send Message
     
    I guess that depends on how you define "Timing." If Studying what is happening in the world of opinions and facts and making calculated decisions based on sufficient evidence to support a particular course of action depending on the risk reward ratio is timing, then maybe I don't subscribe to the efficient market theories. Back to Barron's, surely a valuable research tool. In light of the popularity of the cover story about $75 oil, it would be interesting to see how the herd responds with respect to say (XOM). Seems there is enough momentum on a big one like this the short term trend pattern in response to certain inputs should be fairly predictable, IMO.
    29 Mar, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » EA

     

    so what are the short term trend patterns -- let's see if they turn out to be predictable in this case -- and how doing it works...
    1 Apr, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - ALL

     

    " the risk reward ratio "

     

    How do you calculate that in various instances?
    1 Apr, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My thoughts.
    29 Mar, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    indeed, caution is warranted in the short term

     

    and a longer term view -- an update - secular bull "history"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 Mar, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    A good look at where money is flowing

     

    emerging market ETF's are the clear winners lately.

     

    http://bit.ly/1jMLsQR
    30 Mar, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Great chart on the rotation!!
    1 Apr, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Appears fund managers are cautious and going to cash,

     

    for me,, this is hardly a sign that euphoria or 'all in" mentality is evident..

     

    http://reut.rs/1mEQ77M
    31 Mar, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    "1 The rate of growth of the ratio of debt-to-cash in investors' accounts has reached a level not seen in forty years, as margin debt continues to climb while cash levels decline. See page 2."

     

    "3 There is now $3.91 invested in equity mutual funds and ETFs for every $1.00 stored in safe money market funds as of the latest data from the Investment Company Institute. That compares to a ratio of 3.09 in August 2000 and 3.39 in May 2007."

     

    Form todays Sentimentrader.com. People flocking to cash? Are you serious??? Do you actually read the correct data -- or just distort it?
    31 Mar, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    distort what?

     

    its a link to a reuters article..
    31 Mar, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Your commentary focuses on the fact regarding all this "cash on the sidelines" argument. I call -- no way.

     

    People are "all in" .
    31 Mar, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    M.

     

    I posted an article. plain & simple

     

    Anybody can choose to accept or deny the content

     

    believe what u wish ,
    31 Mar, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    So did I.

     

    Posted 2 -- of a multiple of current indicators, that simply destroy the "fearful public with mountains of cash on the sidelines" nonsense.

     

    "everyone is entitled to their own opinion -- but not your own facts".
    31 Mar, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    & i chose not to dispute your so called "facts" , and took them for what they are worth..

     

    However, u decided to make an 'issue' out of the reuters article.

     

    I believe you instructed me last week that if i didn't like what you posted it was "tough" -- (your words not mine),,

     

    same applies here..
    31 Mar, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    That's 'cause there's no facts in that article. It's total conjecture. No facts. "duh -- my brother in law fund manager is raising a little cash -- so Everyone is bearish and out --- or I heard a guy on CNBC was selling -- so No -One is in the market. Ridiculous logic.

     

    I do hard research on factual information on what people are Actually doing -- not what they say. Otherwise -- it's jumping to conclusions. Believe what you wish.

     

    Reams of factual indicators say both fund managers and the public are long with both feet with high margin, and no cash balances.

     

    Anecdotal stories are useless.
    31 Mar, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    your comment

     

    "Reams of factual indicators say both fund managers and the public are long with both feet with high margin, and no cash balances."

     

    perhaps u wish to trumpet that because it fits your 'case'.....

     

    I'll post this again-- the "margin' card the bears continue to play. its much ado about nothing.

     

    http://bit.ly/1iDztkV

     

    http://bit.ly/1bzMebb
    31 Mar, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Its only one of numerous indicators I follow.

     

    We rallied today for 2 reasons. First quarter end, next Yellen delivered an extremely dovish speech. This market continues to be extremely wed to Fed expectations. That speech even threw continuing the taper in a little doubt. When will the Fed let the market stand on its own 2 feet?
    31 Mar, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    35% reduction in asset purchases and the market is near another new record high.

     

    First, I heard they would never taper , then i heard that the market would fall apart when they started to taper .

     

    Now i guess , we will hear, they can't continue to taper because they are in a "box"

     

    The only folks in a "box' are those that have been fed obsessed , instead of paying attention to what is really happening . Then they blame the fed for their own ill fated strategies...

     

    I'd rather not pay attention to those that have the story wrong..
    31 Mar, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "Reams of factual indicators say both fund managers and the public are long with both feet with high margin, and no cash balances."

     

    Not to get in the middle of a urinating match, but, do you honestly believe that?

     

    No cash? http://bit.ly/1dM4NPt

     

    Not to mention vast sums of money allocated away from equities in bonds, precious metals, etc.

     

    And, market participation, as indicated by volumes, has been muted ever since 2009, with no noticeable upward surge in volumes that might indicate signs of euphoria.

     

    The margin-phobia argument has been entirely misrepresented, as usual, when certain folks wish to scare people. It's meaningless that margin debt is at "absolute" record levels because it's only important how that relates to the total assets supported by such debt, which is not at any record peak, presently. When a balance sheet gets bigger, both the assets and liabilities expand, so that should surprise no one.

     

    I'll go back to your past posts, which state that you're not negative on the general market, like the SPX, but have shorted strategic sectors and companies. Then, you post something, like above, which clearly makes it appear that you believe the market is completely strung out and tight as a violin string, just waiting to go "sproing."

     

    You should really decide which you believe and at least stick to one side of the story.
    31 Mar, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    T,
    a simple link to an article , generates an attack because it doesn't fit into the frustrated bear case..

     

    its quite evident what side of the story is being portrayed here.

     

    its the shotgun effect or the old "lets try to throw as much mud against the wall and see what will stick" routine,

     

    31 Mar, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    when the brother in law fund manager buys (YELP)
    (FCEL) and the like I'll be concerned , we're not there yet

     

    and u will be surprised to see just how far we are away from that..
    31 Mar, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Frustrated bear? My largest short is Netflix. What did it do today?
    31 Mar, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Even if the rally was on a dovish Fed speech -- it's still a data point that pushes the markets.

     

    ... in my view irrationally that Fed matters so much. And letting the market stand on its own 2 feet would be a good thing...

     

    End of quarter - moves markets higher? Why? Is it a deadline for short covering or fund rebalancing or something?
    1 Apr, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Margins...

     

    That turned out to be a 1929's left over fear. Those two articles (Fear posted above) cover the topic so well. They're 2ndary indicators anyway.

     

    What the charts showed is the same as the SPX chart -- things are near highs and a little correction (via down or sideways over time) is needed to bring earnings and prices in line.
    1 Apr, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, Tack

     

    While I agree you've got some data points to debate Macro's data points...

     

    he's not a frustrated bear.

     

    They do exist around SA of course... !

     

    I'm also unsure Macro, if you're bearish on limited overbought sectors... or heavily cautious on the whole market right now.
    1 Apr, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Bearish on the overvalued sectors, mostly.

     

    Im frustrated only because the Fed's message keeps changing, because they don't like the stock market reaction! That speech was so dovish as to throw the continuing Taper into question. If they refuse to keep tapering, I have to ask why would I short anything.

     

    The Fed has to stop micro - managing the stock market. That's not their job!
    1 Apr, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    "net available cash" in investment accounts is at record lows -- I posted the sentiment trader commentary above.

     

    None of it matters -- if the Fed halts the Taper. That speech throws the taper, and hence my reasoning, into question.
    1 Apr, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    "The Fed has to stop micro - managing the stock market. That's not their job! "

     

    I think it's one of the reasons this bull has been "hated." It's hard to plan for normal market behaviors, when someone steps in to maneuver it every time.

     

    I absolutely don't see them ending tapering unless the economic numbers deeply reflect a need. This was just a micromanage to backpedal from that "mistake" in the last speech.
    1 Apr, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    it's been hated because many want to blame the fed for there own mistakes..

     

    primarily because they didnt and still dont understand QE
    1 Apr, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Along with some of that reason... the manipulation of the market is part of it. Last year it kept confusing my expectations. It wasn't "QE" that I didn't understand & it's positive effects in spite of it's not effecting anything. I sorted that out pretty quickly. It was that everything moved based more on Fed words (usually one or two phrases) when they spoke, than on normal market moves during those weeks / month.

     

    That's micromanaging. It is one of the reasons this bull is hated.

     

    ... I had a micromanaging manager once...
    1 Apr, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    I respectfully disagree,

     

    Simply because ---as I have maintained all along -

     

    pay attention to the price action and don't be fed obsessed ....

     

    :)
    1 Apr, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Price action has been effected by Fed speak. Every time they'd speak -- and market would move unnaturally, differently than it would have otherwise. Price action is effected by them, and not operating in isolation.

     

    Over months price is effected by other (normal) factors. But when planning an entry based on regular market moves -- the effect of their speeches that day / week -- is in discord with being able to pay attention to only price action.
    1 Apr, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,
    totally agree,

     

    BUT look at who is powering those knee jerk reactions

     

    short term traders ---- daytraders and the like,,

     

    the fed speaks , its not what they want to hear or they read into what was said and they react..

     

    Rather ---haven't we all discussed here for quite some time now , that investors should take advantage of those knee jerk reactions ?

     

    And as we look back they have surely been opportunities..
    1 Apr, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Ding, ding, ding.... we have a winner.
    1 Apr, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    F&G is 100% correct.

     

    The "price action" you refer to, resulting from QE dialogue, is simply noise, just like the MSM's daily scary headlines. It has nothing to do with the underlying longer trend and why.

     

    Nobody should plan, or care, what the daily price action may be when making a longer-term investment. If genuine value is there, it matters not at all whether prices bounced up or down for the entry point, as long as there is lots of upside over time.
    1 Apr, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F

     

    I agree, you've figured out how to work with the short term effects on the price action by taking advantage of the dips. I haven't quite gotten that rhythm yet. But I've been following you -- because at some point, I figured out, that you'd figured this out.

     

    T,

     

    I'd agree it has no effect on long term upside. Your comments last year on this helped point that out to me.

     

    ---

     

    It's noise but currently the market is in the upper end of the channel, so that short term price action can make a 5% or more difference, if a correction or price action was allowed to happen naturally.

     

    And 5% or so, is enough to catch one's attention, even if committed to the long term upside...
    1 Apr, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Irrespective of where you think the market is, overall, you should be buying only issues that aren't extended to their highs, so the 5% should not be making any difference. At least, as a value investor, that's how I see it.

     

    The problem is, as I illustrated, one never knows whether or not an undervalued issue will retrace its price movement, even if it got sent upward initially on chatter. "Waiting for a correction" has ruined lots of folks. Some have been waiting since 2009, literally.
    1 Apr, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Good points...!

     

    I've been waiting on time to research and to learn more on the various businesses. A much harder problem to solve (than worries about corrections.) (Hence my focus on just jumping into indices at first.) But I'm working on it...!
    1 Apr, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,
    & i figured out that Tack had it figured out , so if we go down in flames its because of TACK

     

    _LOL

     

    Just adding some levity on April fools day !!
    1 Apr, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    "The Fed has to stop micro - managing the stock market. That's not their job!"
    Words that have been repeated for a generation, but once the Government assumes, or is given, a power, it never lets go. The "elites" love Government because it gives them power. The un-free market that results grows more and more susceptible to disaster. The Fed should stop trying to manage, but they won't. It's an ego trip that all economists long to take. The same think that Socialism's other goals will work, this time, if they are given a chance, as long as they're never blamed. "The free market is too dangerous."

     

    The Fed is in a box, and I, personally, don't see how they can stop buying debt, so I'm betting that way. Investing is risky because we can't know what will happen, just predict based on our own knowledge and experience.
    Rather than argue, try to be skeptical of EVERY x-spurt article. Like everything on the Internet, you can't be too cynical.
    Regards,
    1 Apr, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Well, if we get flames - we'll have to build a BBQ, make an offering to the gds and find spare cash to stick back in :)
    1 Apr, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Im a seller on every rally in the IWM / momo stocks.
    31 Mar, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    So are you selling today against the IWM increase?

     

    I'm thinking this may well be the start of another rally sequence... a few small down days mixed in... but with the Fed speech, that could keep things going for a while... as long as earnings aren't bad
    1 Apr, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    The money rotation in the market sectors during March

     

    http://bit.ly/1gHK4Ml
    31 Mar, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Good article on the pluses and minuses right now:

     

    http://bit.ly/1ggPBEX

     

    Seems to reflect a lot of the observations made here...
    Also brings up the midterm election cycle - which apparently tends to effect the market.
    31 Mar, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2379) | Send Message
     
    Thanks M&H, Cam Hui is one of my favorites; very clear and well supported explanations.
    31 Mar, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There's great comments over the weekend, I want to come back to... but I'm out for the day. Happy investing!!
    31 Mar, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Jobs report on Friday, any predictions? If it's close to 200,000 we will see the market rally. If not, expect a pull back and another buying opportunity. I'd like to see over 250,000.

     

    Today is a good day, all my stock purchases that dipped recently are up. (GILD) (GOOG) (PCLN) (FB) (AZO) (SCTY) (VALE) & keep an eye on (TSLA).

     

    Keep buying the dips.

     

    The economy is improving….the traffic here in NJ has picked up a lot. More are people eating out, going shopping. Which is good because we really have suffered since 2008.

     

    By the end of this year, the S&P, DOW, NAS will all be higher. Don't miss any opportunity to get quality stocks at a discount.

     

    While reading SA articles over the weekend there was a comment by a guy who lost money on (PBI) a good company that has yet to return to its highs pre 2008. However, by holding on to his position, and buying more stock (mostly thru dividend re-investing) he now has more shares, more dividend income & a higher value over all than his beginning position. This is the magic of buying a company that will continue to make you money, even buy your more shares, when the stock does have a dip. It shows that despite the biggest crash we have had (at least in my life) that you can come back even better, if you just stay the course. Here's the secret, market crashes are the best opportunity you will ever have to increase your wealth. Even if you never sell, but continue investing dividends. No one ever knows how hard we will fall, when it will happen, and when the market will go back up. However we do know one thing. Every single time, the market has come back. Just invest in quality, blue chip companies that pay you a dividend and you will see your wealth increase over time.

     

    This is why whenever the market dips, I put in orders to buy more stock.

     

    It's okay to mix it up. I own quite a few growth stocks that don't pay dividends. I'm willing to bet they will pay dividends in the future. Meanwhile, I'm willing to hold my stocks for the long haul. Pruning when necessary, but holding for decades to come is my plan.
    31 Mar, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Prediction: Market will pay jobs report almost no heed.
    31 Mar, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    t,

     

    i'll second that observation on the jobs report.
    31 Mar, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - jobs report

     

    market will pay no attention -- why not?
    1 Apr, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Because changes at the employment margin have absolutely no effect on the economy.
    1 Apr, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Yet for the longest time the jobs report got a lot of market attention?
    1 Apr, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    When one has been doing this for a very long time, one realizes that the market gives all kinds of momentary knee-jerk attention to many things that have little relevance to how the economy is performing or will perform and that many in the market completely misconstrue the impact of various things, like unemployment rates, QE, etc.

     

    In the case of unemployment, I'll state again (in brief) what I have said many times. The performance of the economy is completely dominated by the attitudes and resultant behavior of the people with jobs and wealth, and is impacted virtually not at all by slight changes in employment at the margin, although, of course, the MSM loves to focus on this topic, as one of their favorite crying-towel stories.
    1 Apr, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    I found this to be an interesting article on Vanguard. Looks like consumer confidence is rising. I also notice there is a mention to being limited supply based on demand for housing.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fGOvCP
    31 Mar, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Consumer confidence has been increasing, but considering it's 5 years since the recession, it's awful. Every other recession consumer confidence was at least 100 by this time. See link.
    http://bit.ly/1ghz2Zl

     

    I've done some work on this and there seems to be a strong correlation between the confidence level and real median household incomes. Both have been slowly rising, but still remain below both 2007 and the peak around 2000.

     

    As far as housing, inventory has improved now that prices have come up, but there is a lack of first time buyers for a number of reasons. Banks have tightened lending standards and income among the group that is typically the first time buyer has been poor. I'm not bearish to housing but the big gains are behind us and price increases will be much slower. Note that much of the price gains so far has been due to heavy investor demand. That appears to be drying up.
    31 Mar, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD, Cwinn

     

    It's been an incredibly slow "recovery."

     

    Back in 2008 I had several real estate agents tell me the low end housing of bankrupcies and short sales would take 7 years to clear out. We're approaching that point.
    1 Apr, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    FWIW,

     

    market close was not as sloppy as we have seen in the past couple of weeks,

     

    most gains held into the close..

     

    many of the names i follow , and the indicators i use to gauge individual relative strength numbers are showing a turn to the positive, suggesting the rally 'may' have some follow thru..
    31 Mar, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Emerging-market revival a very bad sign for bears.
    31 Mar, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2948) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, right. Quarter end market - up has nothing to do with action today. Ok, works for me.

     

    I would put no stock in any trading until Wednesday. Except my biggest short, (NFLX) continues its plummet.
    31 Mar, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    T,
    Agreed ,it indicates a 'risk on " mindset

     

    add the better economic news,

     

    "The latest upward revision to fourth-quarter GDP to a 2.6% annual rate was driven by higher consumption and fixed investment, and after-tax corporate profits rose 8% on the year, pushing their share of GDP to their highest in two years."

     

    and the fact that China news which has played into the "bear" case is now slowly dissipating ,
    throw away any of the Ukraine nonsense,

     

    & the backdrop at the moment seems to favor more rotation & choppiness , but wouldn't appear to favor a severe correction.
    i also noted today that everyone that was rolled out on CNBC ,spoke of a correction, & how they are setting their portfolios for a downdraft in equities.
    every one now has the 2 year negative presidential cycle as their calling card for a significant selloff.
    Finally, not a scientific survey , but every ind. money manager i know has also been pulling in , and raising cash , similar to what the link I posted earlier suggests.
    We'll see
    31 Mar, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Emerging market have been trending up, and on volume, since mid-March. That's not what happens when markets are headed down in any major way. That this was occurring while money was flowing briskly out of frothy techs and biotechs should have been a clear signal that this is rotation, not retreat.
    31 Mar, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . FG, All

     

    So you're saying a lot of funds managers & media speakers are going to cash and cautious.

     

    On the one hand that indicates we're not at a big top.

     

    But doesn't it indicate that a lot of people who should have some sense -- are sensing the highs are high, and a pull back should be coming?
    1 Apr, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    yes that is a logical conclusion and one that has some merit,,

     

    my point however is that , i dont hear everyone saying its time to go all in , and proclaiming there is clear sailing ahead..

     

    plenty of skepticism around latley and that is good sign as their have been plenty of skeptics all during this run,,
    1 Apr, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chapter 14 - here it is!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Apr, 12:39 AM Reply Like
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