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Land of Milk an...'s  Instablog

Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #14 208 comments
    Apr 1, 2014 12:39 AM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #14. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments.

    Here's a link to the prior, #13: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/2789043-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-13?v=1396312001

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long IWM, DIA, SPY, MU, LINE, CVX, PSEC, TCAP.

    Additional disclosure: ...and many more...

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (208)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    So how will the election cycle effect the market this year?

     

    What are you buying in the upcoming rotation sectors:
    energy, commodities, EM, any other sectors?
    1 Apr, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . For those new to the blog, we've moved on with the conversation to Chapter #15
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Apr, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Key issue remains the Fed. If they are saying --- we will not allow a stock market correction -- therefore we will halt the taper -- I guess it's full speed ahead.

     

    We have Never had a correction with a full blown QE program in place. Why start now?
    1 Apr, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Next I expect them to start a stock buying program -- starting with Tesla et all. I mean at some point this is beyond ridiculous.

     

    At what point do they stop?
    1 Apr, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    :) LOL, buying Tesla...

     

    When they do... I'll finally look at buying gold (or probably real estate.)
    1 Apr, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    Might seem crazy what I'm about to say…..

     

    http://bit.ly/1olsral

     

    but it's how I feel about this market.
    1 Apr, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2493) | Send Message
     
    BSF- Sasquatch sighted at 2:20, lol. Thinking about ongoing dialogue, seems a fundamentals vs sentiment argument underlies much of the discussion.

     

    How's this for a perspective, boys and girls, fundamentals, value largely determine the bounds of the channel while market inefficiencies such as sentiment, emotion, & uncertainty can and do both respond and influence transitions within the nominal normal flow pattern.

     

    These opposing views can and do interact as sort of a friction effect. Point is its is wise to consider both short term and long term trends when considering any allocations.

     

    There are of course many ways to skein a cat, hence it is wise to consider a range of variables and patterns to discern a pattern which may lead to a decision whether to enter the market at a point in time.

     

    What is good for the goose may or may not be good for the gander hence a certain amount of hissing back and forth depending on individual goals, but its all part of the price discovery process, and while the end result may or may not result in dancing in the streets for every individual such reactions should be accepted as a normal process, grumpiness not so much. IMO!
    1 Apr, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    Who is "...wise to consider a range of variables and patterns to discern a pattern which may lead to a decision whether to enter the market at a point in time."
    Such advice suggests guru-ego thinking, IMO.

     

    Who enters and exits "the market" considering variables and patterns? Investors enter "stocks" when they see value and a relatively stable chart pattern. There is no way to time going in and out of the market, successfully.
    Regards,
    1 Apr, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2493) | Send Message
     
    "Investors enter "stocks" when they see value and a relatively stable chart pattern. There is no way to time going in and out of the market, successfully."

     

    Sinedo,

     

    But is entering when you see value or whatever other criteria is selected not "timing"?

     

    I don't think I'm a Guru, though if I am I'm a modest, though I do appreciate the compliment especially if it was meant that way, lol.

     

    Seriously, I'm rusty on the old "NO TIMING" adage and its applicability.

     

    Maybe you or some of the other firecrackers around here can help me understand the fallacy of my thinking, which is that you don't pull the trigger 'TIL SUCH TIME as you are sufficiently convinced that the selected the target can be hit.

     

    IMO the old adage simply means its all about fundamental value and nothing else which I would argue it is not.

     

    Else why would anyone care "when" interest rates, or anything else will change?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Apr, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    QE is scheduled to end this year..

     

    35% asset purchase reduction and the market is near an all time high..
    1 Apr, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    The complaint isn't that QE is or is not effecting the market. It's that Fed speak is effecting it - micro managing it on days / weeks when they speak. That has nothing to do QE itself.
    1 Apr, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Nobody is "micromanaging" anything. Observers are free to draw any conclusions they wish from Fed, or anybody else's, speeches and all the daily chatter from pundits in the media. The market's overall behavior is completely dictated by corporate results, global outlook and liquidity. All of that remains positive, for those who can detach themselves from the chatter.

     

    Beyond that, everyone can talk until they're blue.
    1 Apr, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T,

     

    The chatter is being micromanaged. And that chatter effects the market's short term movements (and therefore can effect entry timing), even though I definitely agree that it shouldn't.

     

    There's no question that yesterday's movement... and what happens for the next week... is effected by the Fed's speech, and not just data. With data alone, it'd take longer for the happy turn around to take effect to this degree -- a couple more days or weeks. That's micromanaging in my book.
    1 Apr, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    YOU are in control of "entry," not the chatter. If you decide to be deterred because of chatter, then, it's your decision, and yours alone.

     

    As I have said many times, if one sees a stock at $20 that one expects to go to $40, does it make any sense to fret over whether the purchase price is $19 or $21?

     

    People paralyze themselves with all kinds of nonsense that proves harmful in the end. Taking the foregoing example, suppose one waits because the "chatter" drives the price up to $21. Then, instead of falling back, it goes to $22. Do you still wait? Why? And, then, if it's $23, is it a bad deal?

     

    This kind of shortsighted behavior can become self defeating.
    1 Apr, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T,

     

    I'd been trying to get into index funds. It's much harder with that to base it on price action... that's why I've come to understand why individual stocks have an advantage...
    1 Apr, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    When markets have had extended runs, it's almost mandatory to do individual stock shopping in order to find value.
    1 Apr, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    I'm new to individual buying... and I'm learning such things as the importance :).
    (from you guys -- and plus it becomes obvious eventually.)
    1 Apr, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    Charts can help determine if the stock has stopped going down or up, and is the one thing everyone can learn. Until a chart shows sideways movement, the trend cannot be considered over. Even then, it is only a decent guide. The longer the sideways movement, as a rule, the greater the move will be (up or down).
    If there are articles and/or anal-yst recommendations, that is further hinting of an orchestrated push.
    Needless to say, "no sure things", but just a little edge is all we can hope for.
    Regards,
    1 Apr, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I guess i see it differently,,

     

    listening and parsing every word of every comment, seems to me to be "fed" obsessed.

     

    I suggest that one shouldn't be doing that ...

     

    I tried to show that once again here :
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    rather look around at econ. reports, earnings reports and price action..

     

    of course the folks that believe its all fed related , don't believe those reports anyway -- LOL

     

    1 Apr, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F

     

    Parsing every word IS Fed obsessed. I'm not fed obsessed and would ignore it. However, wouldn't you agree there are plenty who ARE fed obsessed, and that effects the market that day / week and even sometimes month?

     

    You're point of not obsessing is valid. But the market isn't just you, me, and others with the same idea. It's also all those who are obsessed.

     

    So adding in that obsessive reaction to expectations of what's going to happen ... IS helpful to seeing the picture.
    1 Apr, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    it probably makes a difference, that I've been focused more on index funds than individual stocks. Individuals, it's much easier to use pure price action as a focus.
    1 Apr, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ... abet a shorter term picture... not longer term horizon one.
    1 Apr, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    I believe it is reasonable to say "the computer programs are focused on Fed-speak."
    Computer trading programs result in most of the trading volume, and are designed to make numerous nickel and dime trades, every second. They increase the momentum, one reacting to the other, so it is not a question, IMO, of us reacting to Fed remarks.
    The market (computers) WILL react to those remarks.
    Regards,
    1 Apr, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely , there is an army of fed obsessed,,

     

    & their obsession has kept them out of the market and doubting every aspect of what is really happening around thme , including a bull market

     

    :)
    1 Apr, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (MU) finally has life again! Up 7% yesterday, 1.5% so far today.

     

    Apparently because of two brokerage firms recommending yesterday... to counter the other firms downgrade Friday.

     

    I didn't buy in more... but maybe I will next time.
    1 Apr, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    Why? Because you're an aspiring "trader"?
    Are you sure?
    Regards,
    1 Apr, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    (MU) earnings will be announced on thursday
    1 Apr, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Why doesn't the Fed just stop fooling around and say; "we are buying S&P futures". Why waste words?

     

    As far as I'm concerned the FED just cancelled the taper. Period. That's why we took off.
    1 Apr, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Awfully hard to make decisions when the FED changes it mind because the SPX downticks a handful of points.
    1 Apr, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    The Fed hasn't changed its mind or policy.

     

    And, taper isn't contractionary, as many claim, simply because QE is now in excess, so its cessation does almost nothing. The Fed will not become contractionary until such time as it sees more robust demand creating inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the economy is not being driven by the Fed or QE and continues to improve.

     

    You were playing a typical short rotation, not a major downturn, and you did it well on various issues you shorted, but if you persist in thinking that you should be able to short the broader picture, as a result, you're likely to continue in your frustration.
    1 Apr, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    BS -- take a survey right now of the big money hedge funds. Ask them if the Fed's message changed yesterday. There's no doubt in my mind the taper is now in question.

     

    Thats why I'm frustrated. IF QE has no effect; stop it now. The Fed's job is not to manage the stock market.

     

    I mean look at today. Banks -- Flat. Transports -- Flat. Most worthless speculative stuff -- Flying.
    Yeah that speech had "no effect".

     

    Just my Opinion.
    1 Apr, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    IMO, tapering is not in question.

     

    The Fed has done this same thing... they're managing mood with their words. They aren't changing policy. They're changing perception. The 2nd in command, Fischer is very hawkish. His idea is managing through directive, not QE. It's highly unlikely he was brought on, and the Fed is reversing. Especially since even last May, Bernanke said it's time to end QE because it's usefulness is up.

     

    The only thing Fed was trying to do yesterday was backpedal on Yellen's accidental comment that gave impression ZIRP was ending 6 months after tapering...
    THAT's the mood they wanted changed.

     

    Then when we're closer to the end of taper, if economic data is decent they'll talk about ending ZIRP. If it's not as good, they'll talk about some official policy to extend it.
    1 Apr, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave a strong defense of the central bank's easy-money policies, saying its "extraordinary" commitment to boosting the economy, especially the still struggling labor market, will be needed for some time to come.

     

    In her first public speech since becoming Fed chair two months ago, Yellen cited the struggles of three American workers in backing the policies of low interest rates and continued bond-buying. She said there remains "considerable" slack in the economy and job market, a sign that further monetary stimulus can still be effective.

     

    "I think this extraordinary commitment is still needed and will be for some time, and I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policy-makers at the Fed," Yellen said at a community reinvestment conference.

     

    Sure sounds like continued QE to me!
    1 Apr, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    That's not a reference to continued QE. It's a talking down of investor worries over ending ZIRP... that got riled up by her misstatement last month (was it last month?).

     

    They've been saying this same thing for the last month... to try to talk down that misstatement. So this was their first official chance to "say it again." All those times in the last month, the various Fed mouthpieces, have referenced staying the course on tapering but not ending ZIRP. That's why I'm sure it's about ZIRP, not QE tapering.
    1 Apr, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    What i just observed and read here since i left earlier this AM, is exactly my point .

     

    everyone wants to read into and parse every word of the fed..

     

    what i am hearing now about the end of tapering , is what i heard when the doubters said the fed would never taper.. ,

     

    and it's from the same crowd..
    1 Apr, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    banks flat after they just hit new highs, if they continued to soar unabated , the doubters would say they were in a bubble. cant have it both ways
    transports flat ?

     

    DJ 20 is 2 points from its former all time high of 7592 on 3/7 !!

     

    spec stuff is flying because it was /is oversold and in the context of a bull market , they will also rebound and come back. and when they do they usually run over people .

     

    the backdrop here is a secular bull market , until the entire LT trend is reversed , trying to pick tops in ind. names or indexes can & will be frustrating ,

     

    and at the end of the day , does nothing for the bottom line of a portfolio..

     

    it is next to impossible to be that nimble and have success .

     

    my.02
    1 Apr, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Well, imho, nothing has changed. And if you asked the big money mgrs they would say the same. The high flyers were incredibly oversold having dropped significantly over the past few weeks and most were at chart support. Yellen's speech was just the excuse.

     

    The taper will occur unless the data falls apart.
    1 Apr, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    "...Thats why I'm frustrated. IF QE has no effect; stop it now. The Fed's job is not to manage the stock market..."

     

    True, but easier said than done. Bernanke acknowledged that QE didn't work. The sorcerer's apprentice can't stop; doesn't know how, without risking killing the Market half a year before a major mid-term election. It can't stop abruptly, cold-turkey, and a slow taper will have interest rates rising too fast by October. That is the "big picture".
    Regards,
    1 Apr, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    Ending or tapering QE will end ZIRP. Why else have QE?
    1 Apr, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    just made an all time high in my husband's retirement portfolio….makes me happy.

     

    all the stocks I bought on the dip are up, up & away.

     

    (PCLN) (GOOG) (AZO) (GILD) (SCTY) (TSLA) (WDAY) (VALE) (NVAX)

     

    and ready for the next dip but looks like that might not happen this week.
    1 Apr, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    forgot (FB) and (WYN) both are doing well.

     

    Africa is on the verge of huge change. Undersea cable is now connecting Africa (on its west coast) with the rest of the world. What this means is that millions of people will be getting internet access via cable tv in the near future. The benefit of this will be enormous. Consider education, which is free on the internet via the Khan Academy. Over 80 universities offer free courses, including Harvard.

     

    Next….South America.

     

    Isn't it extraordinary that these 2 continents are so late to being connected to the internet via cable? Imagine what a difference this will make to millions. Consider that the majority of people on this planet have never used a cell phone or a laptop.
    1 Apr, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Fascinating new about getting internet into Africa.

     

    On the plus side -- lots of effects on business and development.

     

    On the negative -- will we see more Nigerian cousins corresponding? :)
    1 Apr, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    That's a possibility!

     

    for the poor in Africa, this will be their opportunity to connect to the rest of the world, which is huge.

     

    until now, only the wealthy (and con artists) were able to use the internet

     

    what we do daily, use cell phones & surf the internet - will change the lives of hundreds of millions.

     

    education & basic medical care should be free, IMO. maybe we will finally see everyone in the world have the same opportunities that we have in the USA.
    1 Apr, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I don't want to be a negative nellie - but don't get too happy. All this is BS - earnings season is far more important than this day to day trading. I don't know how many times a strong stock loses almost all of its quarters gains when guidance is "disappointing".

     

    While most of the recent economic stats have been OK -none suggest the economy is picking up significantly. Whereas earnings forecasts do imply that will occur.
    1 Apr, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    that's not being a negative nellie , its the truth..

     

    Actual earnings will of course be an important driver.

     

    However I am very careful not to read into the guidance as much as many seem to do .. reason

     

    there isn't a CEO that is going to put his/her neck on the line , & go out on any limbs in the face of a moderate recovery..

     

    I base my opinion on the fact that we have repeatedly seen tepid guidance---- yet we just came off a 9.9% y/y earnings growth last quarter .. and we have of course now witnessed record earnings.

     

    I have seen so many opportunities arise when a company reports a great quarter, all trends are in go mode , yet guidance is tepid..

     

    many times the resulting sell off from the traders offers a great opportunity.

     

    as sanity prevails, these stocks can recover quickly.

     

    & that is why I quickly take notice when a company beats estimates and then raises guidance .. And if its a div payer that also raises its div. in the same announcement , its a green light for sure..
    1 Apr, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    But they all have Facebook accounts, and manage to post intelligence about fighting.
    1 Apr, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Breadth is lousy today. Added a little to shorts.
    1 Apr, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    What do you make of today's economic news?

     

    It's been under expecations. Not contractions or negative
    (it's still growth) but slower than expected.

     

    What effect would / should that logically have?
    1 Apr, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    "March's gain to 53.7 from 53.2 prior is led by a 7.7 point jump in Production to 55.9. New Orders edged up to 55.1 from 54.5. Supplier Deliveries fell to 54.0 from 58.5 (means times are getting faster). Employment slipped to its lowest level since June, 51.1. Prices 59.0 vs. 60.0. Backlogs 57.5 vs. 52.0."

     

    This is disappointing? Don't think so.
    1 Apr, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    I must have misread the numbers I saw earlier. I thought they were coming in a little under. I'll have to go back and look later in the day.
    1 Apr, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't matter if the numbers are coming in "a little under" as long as they show growth.
    1 Apr, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . T, DD

     

    I wasn't taking numbers coming in under as a negative sign. Just wondering how it impacts market reaction... (if at all). Since I haven't been around to see how that works.
    1 Apr, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    The initial reaction that might last all of 3 minutes is a little dip if the number is light - but then the market comes back again if it's an up day to begin with.
    1 Apr, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    ... so it's real short term - doesn't effect the underlying mood...
    1 Apr, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    For a long time, I thought Tesla was a joke. However, if the Giga factory gets built & the plan to have free refueling stations, powered by the sun really happens, then we should all support Tesla. When they make a cheap version of the car, I'll be a buyer.
    1 Apr, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1003) | Send Message
     
    >then we should all support Tesla.

     

    Most people fail to realize that you can support their great products, admire their innovation and cheer for their success, while at the same time believe that the current share price is exorbitantly high.
    1 Apr, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » dnorm

     

    My thoughts on it too. Plus there are many other electric options out there. Tesla is respected in EVA circles... but it's not considered the cat's meow that's going to take over nor move the market.
    1 Apr, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    at the end of the day , those that choose to look at all of the negatives , doubt the reports, etc. are simply left behind.

     

    that has been the storyline for this entire run.
    1 Apr, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    I definitely doubt the reports, and I am in the Market, although I am higher in cash than ever in my life. Taking profits is hard for me to do, historically, but too many stocks are over-valued, and they always correct.
    There are always Buys in any market, but fear of an unpredictable Government policy has many wary.
    I don't know why you think there are many people waiting on the sidelines to enter on good news. A change in Washington will ease the trepidation; until then, expect no big up-moves.
    Regards,
    1 Apr, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Sinedo,

     

    i believe you misunderstood my comment ,
    I dont see those that are on the sidelines jumping in anytime soon, and that is why I believe we aren't near any type of Euphoria or bubble like mentality, that coincides with market tops.

     

    I'll stand by my commentary about the doubters ..

     

    I don't endorse anything i see coming out of the DC crowd, however , please keep in mind we are at a new high , with all of the incompetence around us..

     

    markets do not trade on the absolute, they are priced and trade on "change" , whether it be positive or negative..

     

    so, when all seems well & rosy, and the issues that trouble many are eased we will in fact be at that market top.. and many will look around as the market drops and wonder why ... a cycle i have seen play out over & over..

     

    Complain as we may,, the change from the depths of 2009 has been positive.. whether one believes in the reports or not..

     

    happy Investing
    1 Apr, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    s:

     

    "... I am higher in cash than ever in my life...."

     

    "...but fear of an unpredictable Government policy has many wary...."

     

    "...I don't know why you think there are many people waiting on the sidelines to enter on good news. "

     

    You don't see the irony in this sequence of sentences?

     

    This post is a poster child for why the market is not euphoric and oversubscribed, and unlikely to be anytime soon.
    1 Apr, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    and i will add that many that i speak to routinely are concerned & feel the same way sinedo does , it is very common...

     

    it's a point i have been trying to make here for quite some time..
    1 Apr, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Here's an observation I thought of while listening to the Barra testimony.

     

    Have you noticed how many stocks have run into trouble - or acted poorly - when a new CEO takes the helm? I doubt it has anything to do with the new CEO, but perhaps the old one timed his exit before the bad news was known. Think about McD, Pnra, IBM, Lulu and now GM. Coincidence?
    1 Apr, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Interesting observation on CEOs... wouldn't be surprising at all. There's probably many factors, but this is a good solid one to add to assessing.
    1 Apr, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    New CEOs sometimes talk a stock down or do necessary write offs at the beginning when they are given some grace period, makes it easier to look like they are fixing things.
    2 Apr, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Attn:
    Keep your eye on the Canadian Dollar - you can follow it via FXC. It looks it's trying to bottom. If so, that's very important for a new leg up. In the past a stronger Cad$ is accompanied by market strength, em's outperforming the US, strength in basic resources, strong outperformance of the cyclical stocks. For those in US banks, you might want to switch some ownership to Canadian banks which look cheaper - and generally have better dividends.
    1 Apr, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    No fanfare , no headlines, but very quietly the

     

    S& P closed at a new high, the DJ transports closed at a new high,

     

    Russell regained its 50 day MA yesterday , and its 20 day MA today.

     

    Lone holdout the DJIA , is now just 47 points from a new high..
    1 Apr, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    so it's okay for me to be happy, right?

     

    actually I'm happy about a lot more things than just the stock market.

     

    but it is the "icing on the cake" for me

     

    after 4 long years, things are really starting to look up for my husband work wise.

     

    we've been living on savings, but now earnings are starting to come in.

     

    have a great evening everybody!
    1 Apr, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    It's wonderful things are looking better for you, and of course it's OK to be happy - just make sure it's not tied to the stock market. She's a fickle mistress and just when everyone starts celebrating it's time to be most worried.

     

    My account closed at a new high Monday; today was even better. But I'd be much happier if this was November when the market typically has a sustained period of seasonal strength rather than April Fool's Day. I've seen too many at least short term tops in the April/May time frame to be complacent.
    2 Apr, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    Your comment about not being complacent is a wise one.. and exemplifies what i believe is the mindset of the majority of investors... We are at all time highs , yet there is no euphoric drum beat..

     

    I don't know of anyone that has been around the market & invested for a while (20 yrs or more) that is at this time is complacent .

     

    I like to refer to those that i speak of here as always looking over their shoulder just to make sure things are ok.. I see them content with the great gains they have achieved , but not resting on those achievements.

     

    That crowd is fully aware of how the market can move swiftly either for the positive or the negative.

     

    it is that fact, that the euphoria that so many talk about is simply not there .. & is one reason the market grinds higher.

     

    maybe the crowd that just got into investing in 2010 or later and are now enamored by (TWTR) , (YELP) and the like are euphoric and bubbly , but that is simply not the majority.

     

    BTW , Blue , I am also glad that you have done well, as your commentary indicates , you looked around and assessed the situation and invested accordingly, while avoiding the "noise" .
    2 Apr, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . BSF

     

    Didn't know you were concerned about earnings. So -- glad the market's filling in the gap... Even with a good education, it can be hard to get the salary to match... especially in the employment environment till now.

     

    I'm still 1/2 out - so i need to get hit on the head, the next time it's down and it's time to get more $ back in. It's going to be rosy or reasonable for a little while now is my expectation...

     

    I had a good day too -- but it wasn't market related...
    2 Apr, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . April/May highs -- followed by summer dips --

     

    Is there any particular reason for that pattern? Besides that everyone's outside having fun, and not starring at their computer screen :).

     

    And midterm elections - does that have a pattern effect?
    2 Apr, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    DD; why would you be concerned? It appears there are only 2 outcomes for US markets:

     

    A) Economy gets better, so markets go up ( as there is zero inflation);

     

    B) Economy gets worse, QE Taper is immediately halted / reversed, so markets go up.

     

    Everything else = meaningless.
    2 Apr, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    It's my nature to always be concerned whether we're going up or down. And there will come a time when even the promise of more Fed will have no impact on a falling market. Right now the data is good enough to provide support, but not if that changes.
    2 Apr, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Why are we gapping down? that was an awesome ADP. I don't get it.
    2 Apr, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    What gap down?
    2 Apr, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There was a gap down in before hours.

     

    Market's at highs, so a down day is bound to happen.

     

    Tack & Fear thought the market would ignore the ADP data (-- I'm still not sure why.)
    2 Apr, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Because the only times the market pays any attention to employment is during the more hysterical periods, after a recession, when the media writes some horror story daily, and everybody debates whether the economy will ever again recover. Once we reach the current stage, where the economy is humming along, unemployment keeps dropping, and it's more or less business, as usual, nobody much cares.

     

    And, nor should they, because the economy is always, without exception, controlled by the behavior of those with wealth and the 90+% with jobs. It's not controlled, or even influenced by whether employment at the margin changes by a couple tenths of a percent. Everybody micro-examines that, but the real mover is whether folks with money are spending it.
    2 Apr, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T,

     

    Thanks!

     

    -- after seeing the ADP in the headlines on business channels all last year -- finally the "relief" has set in. That's a big shift in mood / perception from last year. I'd guess going forward, that having that worry off the table, changes how market patterns play out.
    2 Apr, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Anything new in allergy treatments that will show up in a stock, & not baked in already? I'm starting to hear complaints from sufferers...
    2 Apr, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3753) | Send Message
     
    For potential future breakthroughs, you could follow some leaders like (SNY) and (MRK).

     

    (MMM) makes some fine respirators for those who are acutely afflicted.
    2 Apr, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    L we bought Allegra (the real thing) at Costco last Saturday when it was on sale.
    2 Apr, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2493) | Send Message
     
    Generic versions of Allegra, Zyrtec, and Clariton all now available at competitive prices from Costco.(COST).
    2 Apr, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Luckily I don't have allergies. My PT spend our hour complaining about her allergies. A friend did too. Got me thinking...

     

    (COST) was doing better than average through the retail downturn if I remember correctly.

     

    JBT - have you decided any of those are a buy...
    2 Apr, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3753) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Always watching big pharma (and big conglomerates like 3M)... I'm currently in a holding pattern, however, and am not looking to sell anything I have, or add anything I don't at the moment.
    2 Apr, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    L, have you noticed how much (BGS) & (MAT) are up? Over 4% in dividends too.

     

    (DFT) is down recently, but expected to go higher to an average consensus target price of over $40. It's a buy. So far, I'm negative in this one but considering adding to my position. Watching to see how it does the rest of this week, so I will probably buy some tomorrow.

     

    I've only got a few stocks in the red now, and am up over 5% since January. One of my worst stocks is (ED) but it's been going back up too.

     

    (TSLA) is making a comeback. There is no rational reason why this stock is so high. Just like (AMZN). At least with (GOOG) & (PCLN) you see huge earnings per share, expected to continue.
    (AAPL) is another one you could consider.

     

    (VALE) back up too, nice move today.

     

    If you don't own (WAG) or (CVS) they are both excellent. (GILD) and (CELG) will continue to go up, if you didn't buy them on the last dip go ahead & start a position now.

     

    (BA) (LMT) (NOC) are my favorite aerospace stocks. (NOC) has outperformed ever since I bought it, even more than (LMT).

     

    (IBM) continues to improve. Don't give up on (BAC). If you are a long term investor, both of these will do well for you.

     

    I still see lots of good stocks out there to buy. Wish I had doubled down even more during the last dip.

     

    What is happening every time we do pull back in the markets, buyers come out and snap up the bargains. I really don't think we are going to see a 10% or more pull back this year for that reason.

     

    In fact, by year end, you will be glad that you got back in the market. The economy is going to continue to get better. We have only just begun a continued economic recovery that will not slow down for years to come.

     

    Never doubt the ability of Americans to innovate. We lead the world & I don't see any lack of creativity in the future. Steve Jobs was half Middle Eastern. Elon Musk is originally from South Africa. Countless current American company CEOs were not born in the USA. What brought them to America? Because this is the land where dreams become reality.

     

    Disclosure….I'm married to a foreigner that came to the USA because he is an innovator. A long time ago, he told me he knew he had to come here, because in his country he would never have been able to accomplish what he has here.
    2 Apr, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF,

     

    All of those are good stocks. But everythings up right now -- are any of them buys right now? (Instead of on a dip.) If not, I'll keep them in mind for the dips.

     

    When I've looked at some of your buys in the past, they've done very well from when you got in a while ago... but were high at the point I was looking.

     

    I'm not buying in partial positions because of commissions. Haven't had time to explore other brokers yet.
    2 Apr, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    L, most of them are buys now. Especially (DFT) which has gone down about $2 since I bought it. It's a good company, just had some bad news that over sold the stock. Yahoo was a tenant, they have already rented the building, but the stock is still being punished because Yahoo moved on. It will be back, just buy a small position. Then you can buy more later to reduce your cost, if it goes a little lower.

     

    The problem with waiting too long for a stock to go down is that, in just one day, it can go up a lot. Timing is impossible. You can buy distressed stocks & then wait for them to recover. Both (BGS) and (MAT) were beaten up but have come back. (BGS) is still low for me - I'm negative right now with it. (MAT) has made money for me now. Both are long term holds.

     

    I would definitely buy (GILD) & (CELG) right now. Along with (COST), it's not all the way back to its high yet.

     

    (IBM) is a buy now as well. I've been adding to it but just recently got into the green, so I've stopped. (IBM) took almost a year for me to get ahead with, the stock was beaten up bad last year. I posted many times about (IBM). (BA) is still in the red, but it's going higher. See, you can buy some of my stocks cheaper than my cost.

     

    You know my strategy, buy a partial position like 25% of what I want, and then keep adding. Sometimes I buy as much as half. But I've learned not to buy all the shares I want in one purchase. Every time I do that, I live to regret it. Invariably a future dip occurs.

     

    The dip recently with the (CELG) (GILD) (TSLA) (FB) (SCTY) (GOOG) (PCLN) (WDAY) (AZO) (VALE) was an opportunity. I bought varying amounts on different days, the dip didn't last long enough for me. If we dip again, I'll buy more.

     

    I don't wait for the "ultimate dip." I start buying small positions as soon as we start dipping, & continue to buy as long as the dip lasts. Sometimes just 1 or 2 shares, like with (PCLN) & (GOOG). Priceline went up over $60 on Tuesday.

     

    Plus I do lots of research, to make sure these companies are going to make $ in the future. (SCTY) is one I'm watching as it has not recovered. It might go down more, & if it does I will buy more. It's a good business model, as long as they are making money I will hold the stock. However, (FSLR) could be a better choice.

     

    If you are not in (PSEC) & (PTY) they also dipped last week. Both are starting to recover.

     

    The buy on the dip strategy really works. Also holding for the long term. Many of my picks initially do not go up. I had to hold (NDLS) for quite awhile before getting out with about a 10% gain.

     

    I lost a lot of $ on my early purchases of (MAT) but now it's in the green. Same with (M) I bought it, then it dropped to $45 but now it's at $60 so it paid off to hold it. Ditto with (FL) I lost over $1000 but I kept buying it, now my position is up several thousand. I knew it was a good company, the market was punishing retail last year but now retail is in. Just buy the good ones.

     

    The reason I'm buying more growth stocks is that they can really propel your portfolio higher. (AZO) (PCLN) (GOOG) (GILD) (CELG) (FB) are solid companies. However the bedrock of my portfolio is still the steady DGI stocks. So even if the market goes south, those dividends keep coming in.
    2 Apr, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Things call for a re-evaluation on my side. Whatever the reasons, markets are resilient. I've covered my shorts such as (yelp) and (NFLX) on their recent weakness. Yesterday I flipped from short to long (TSLA) -- at least that worked. Also long (CLF) as a bit of a deeply contrarian play on the real economy. I think I'm too early for any kind of longer term short exposure. Trades worked -- sort of. All in all -- too difficult at the moment.
    3 Apr, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    That recent dip in (TSLA) (PCLN) (GOOG) (VALE) (GILD) (CELG) (AZO) (FB) (WDAY) provided a real opportunity for me to start some new positions.

     

    Will we dip again? Sure hope so, I'd like to buy some more.
    3 Apr, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M,

     

    That market resiliency has been taking investors by surprise for a while now... you're not alone in that, that's for sure.
    3 Apr, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    BSF;

     

    So are you buying more today?
    4 Apr, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    Hello Everyone!

     

    I hope you are all doing well.

     

    Congrats on your blog LOMAH. You have a lot of brilliant investors here.

     

    Have a sector call for you my dear friends! :-)

     

    (SEA)

     

    You remember my call on (TAN) at $22? Well, the shipping sector is now ''officially'' in a bull market. Nobody is talking about it yet and the inflow is just starting...which is typical when you have a young bull.

     

    Traded (TAN) in and out but now keep my long term position until we reach at least $90.

     

    I miss you all and will do my best to come back more often. Busy here in Africa.

     

    All the Best!
    Krusty
    3 Apr, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1673) | Send Message
     
    Hi Krusty, good to hear from you, and thank you for your ideas too.
    3 Apr, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    Hi BSF!

     

    Hope you are doing well. You're very welcome ;-)

     

    ps: Have a look at that beautiful chart:

     

    http://ti.me/1fzheNk

     

    (PGEM) (MWA) and (BLDR) should profit handsomely. Did not buy yet but really tempted. :-)
    3 Apr, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    Nice to hear from you !

     

    & yes I do remember your call on (TAN) , excellent timing on that one :)

     

    Thanks for the heads up on (SEA)

     

    Best to you !!
    3 Apr, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    Hi F&G! :-)

     

    You've built an impressive base of followers! Just read some of your articles. Always the same well articulated, logical investor. Keep up the good work my friend! :-)

     

    By the way, what are your thoughts on the housing market?

     

    If we want to go back to the historical housing starts this cycle could last for another 5-7 years IMHO.

     

    Thoughts?

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty ;-)
    3 Apr, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Hi Krusty!

     

    So good to hear from you!!

     

    " You have a lot of brilliant investors here."
    Isn't it a great group here? And nice folks too :), not just good at investing.

     

    I was thinking shipping should be coming up to bat... particularly overseas... now that recovery is really starting. So definitely something I'll look at.

     

    Glad to hear things are going well
    :-)
    3 Apr, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All,

     

    Krustyman was part of the original crew on IT's blog. He's had great ideas, and some very good timing. Doing swing trades, and now more long term.

     

    Plus, he gets my sense of humor :-).
    3 Apr, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Krusty,

     

    There's a regular here, CWinn who's in the housing construction business who's been giving us updates. Last one is probably a couple chapters back. Industry is heating up...
    3 Apr, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    @LOMAH

     

    Nice folks for sure! :)

     

    Would really like to hear from CWinn as the housing construction business is on my radar.

     

    Take care
    Krusty
    4 Apr, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,,

     

    lets just say I am cautiously optimistic that the housing market is in its early stages of this recovery cycle and still has plenty of room to run.. I agree it will be measured in years not months ..

     

    So if your assessment of another 5 yrs or so is accurate, it will be one of the key drivers along with a few others , that reinforces the secular bull theme.

     

    ;)
    3 Apr, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    You are absolutely right. The housing market will (in part) support the secular bull.

     

    :)
    3 Apr, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    Interesting tidbit from one of the municipalities I work in...single family housing has been the strongest I've seen since early 2000's. I completely understand housing is geographic in nature but this area is seeing strong continued growth...this is a good indicator of the strength of the recovery IMO.

     

    http://bit.ly/1imkvyf
    5 Apr, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the info, CWinn. Much appreciated.

     

    Krusty
    6 Apr, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Long (CHK) I like the long term Nat Gas picture.
    3 Apr, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    (CLF) breaking downtrend, adding to position. A lot of people short this name.

     

    Also adding to my best EM idea; (GXG)
    3 Apr, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Heavily shorted (CLF) starting to rally on China mini - stimulus -- yes small -- however check out action in (http://bit.ly/yuZxv7). Not only CLF could rally; but coal names like (http://bit.ly/154m2Bb) and (http://bit.ly/KN1Y08) Huge short position in these too. Long both.

     

    More of the rotation theme that seems to be occurring.
    3 Apr, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    One of the reasons I bought Teck Resources (tck) March 24th (mentioned on this blog) is that I thought Chinese bearishness was overdone. I haven't gotten rich but it's up 4%. It and clf have fairly decent balance sheets - although TCK has the advantage of having coal and zinc. Wlt and Anr, imho, are flirting with bankruptcy - which is why both have such large short interest stats. Their debts are humungous and unless some miracle occurs they will lose money again this year and next.
    3 Apr, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    whoops - meant to write copper and zinc. While met coal is tck's largest component, the added kickers of copper, zinc and lead are helpful. Zinc and lead are holding up better.
    4 Apr, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    I often use this type of info as a 'read' on other economies

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    also have an interest in (CPA) a latin american airline

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Apr, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3753) | Send Message
     
    Adding (EMR) to my watch list, and will be looking for a good entry point. Decent yield, good products.

     

    They're even helping the environment! :)

     

    http://bit.ly/PotxCC
    3 Apr, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Jbt

     

    I like it , a nice 'industrial' , that many big fund managers are adding ....
    3 Apr, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (MU)

     

    Really good earnings report. (I think - Scottrade sent it in 12 bit piece emails.)

     

    "Revenues in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 were $4.11 billion and were 2 percent higher compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014 and 98 percent higher compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2013.
    On a GAAP(1) basis, net income attributable to Micron shareholders in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 was $731 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, compared to net income of $358 million, or $0.30 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2014 ...
    On a non-GAAP(2) basis, net income attributable to Micron shareholders in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 was $989 million, or $0.85 per diluted share, compared to net income of $881 million, or $0.77 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2014. "
    A neg: Increased sales but margins are lower.
    .

     

    Investing Question: Any wisdom or suggestions on how to consider GAAP vs. non-GAAP numbers when evaluating a stock?
    3 Apr, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    My preference is for GAAP figures, but will take into consideration whether it's low relative to non-gaap because of one time items - like restructuring, a legal settlement, writedown, etc. If the company regularly has a wide spread between gaap and non-gaap that's a red flag for me.
    4 Apr, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    You can always see the full earnings release in one piece in Yahoo Finance.
    4 Apr, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    From what i have gathered the guidance was uninspiring. along with margins coming in at 34.2% vs the analyst est of 34.8% ... & it should be noted that the 34% number was an improvement over the last quarter. I noted the cash flow improved quite a bit , that seems to have gone unnoticed.

     

    As I have mentioned I do not put the same emphasis as many choose to do regarding guidance .. corp. mgmn't isnt going to go out on a limb anytime soon , if they don't have to ..

     

    Three months ago , the guidance for yesterdays report was tepid , and the earnings report came in quite good. so much for making a case on tepid guidance.

     

    CEO's of the world take the approach ,--- why not keep the bar low, then come in and continue to beat the estimates.

     

    As long as the growth is there , I don't get concerned if the analysts are uninspired by the guidance.

     

    Sooner or later investors will realize that (MU) can earn $3/share .....

     

    I didn't hear anything on the conf. call to change my opinion With that, I still maintain my PT of $30 ....

     

    :)
    4 Apr, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Thanks! That helps!
    5 Apr, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    I think we are headed for a test of SPX 2000 this year. SPX is very, very strong.
    4 Apr, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Big; Big rotation happening from "virtual economy" to real Economy.

     

    Long Energy, Materials for this now. Very powerful rotation.
    4 Apr, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    @Macrotrader

     

    Yep! Good time to re-balance a portfolio.

     

    Talking about the real economy...(WEN) seems ready for another up-leg.

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    4 Apr, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    The action this morning reminds me of the great tagline in a poster the Chicago Board of Trade issued in the mid 1990's. The line was "Don't Confuse Brains with a Bull Market".

     

    All those buying the ridiculously valued momo stocks and "buying the dips" are getting their heads handed to them.

     

    While we should never confuse brains with a bull market, we also shouldn't forget the market moves in the direction that screws the most number of people. With the rotation now having moved to buying the worst laggers - em, energy and basic materials - is it finally time for the whole market to drop? I'd say not yet since jnk is up and Berkshire is hanging in there. But I am worried that we walk in on Monday with something crappy coming out of China and everything goes down. I haven't done much today (took off a bit of tck near its 50 dma and bought some bns) but considering buying some puts before the session is over.

     

    I should mention Canada also had their monthly employment report and it was relatively much better than the US report. The Cad$ is looking better and the EWC relative to the S&P looks like it has made a bottom - but it needs follow through next week.
    4 Apr, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    DD:

     

    The economic data continues positive, and there's nothing unnatural about absurdly-priced mo-mo's hitting the reverse button. Rotation, as opposed to market-wide sell-off is a positive sign. The money is finally going where it makes sense, as prices for commodities and energy concerns have been rather ridiculous, along with underpriced emerging-market stocks. Value is being rewarded, as it always is, for those with some patience.

     

    The market may exhibit some trader weakness, as some try to forecast earnings in advance, or simply pull back to be conservative. Unless there are some large negative surprises, I'd expect any selling to be rather short in duration.
    4 Apr, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I know the data has been OK, but the market is pricing in much better earnings than we are likely to have this year. I keep on thinking back on the Fact Set chart which suggests the market is about 10% overpriced. Now, that's not a market that's falling apart - but I'd rather not be as heavily involved if that's going to happen.

     

    I have added quite a bit over the past month - thankfully in stuff that's doing well. Amazingly I'm still up on the day with the S&P down .8% - but I know that's not going to last much longer if there is further weakness.
    4 Apr, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Many key 'reversals" both on the indexes and individual names, will now spark more "technical" selling. IMO , what is transpiring has nothing to do with fundamentals

     

    Maybe its the start of a decent correction, who knows. it certainly isn't unexpected..

     

    If we do get that 10% reset , it will be a time to get to work , watch what names are thrown away with some of the mo mo stocks.. you will have names with no fundamental change in their outlooks trashed because of 'technicals" .

     

    I already see some indiscriminate selling , and that means bargains when the dust settles.. 
    4 Apr, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2456) | Send Message
     
    In March 2000, the bubble stocks of that era crashed for two months while the broader market didn't decline much--similar to now. The recent sentiment rotation among sectors indicates nothing. A broader bear market commenced 5 or 6 months after March 2000, in spite of sector "rotation".

     

    One thing is likely: the bubble sectors/stocks have much further to decline even if they have a reflexive multi-month bounce. The biggest threat to the broader market is the possibility that the popping of the euphoric bubble in social media, 3D printing, biotech, cloud, etc. will kill the "buy the dip" mentality that has been reinforced in the last 2 or 3 years.

     

    Most people seem to be unaware that this has been one of the strongest and longest bull markets in history(20% compounded returns for over 5 years).

     

    Many of the people commenting on this instablog didn't even see the bubble in cloud, social media, unprofitable biotechs, 3D printing, etc. Perhaps now they can see it as it explodes in the span of several weeks.
    4 Apr, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    WSD,

     

    No one here is "unaware" of the strength and longevity of this bull market..

     

    all one has to do is go back and read the commentary here on this blog and elsewhere on SA.

     

    and all are aware of the "momentum" stocks and their valuations.

     

    Ironically, The folks that are unaware of what is happening around them are the folks that have called for the demise of the equity markets since 2012.

     

    Its no surprise that you surface here on a 23 point decline in the S & p with an " i told you so" .

     

    Typical frustrated bear ---- Right on queue.

     

    Laughable
    4 Apr, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -- WSD

     

    >>"Many of the people commenting on this instablog didn't even see the bubble in cloud, social media, unprofitable biotechs, 3D printing, etc. "

     

    What would make you say this? There's been post after post here talking about those being overvalued and not the place to be.

     

    There's been post after post saying to use caution because this bull may finally have a correction to move it along. Or it may use it's other method to equalize with economy -- sideways movement and rotation.

     

    But also -- why would you post opinions on what every one here has been thinking and believing now, when you haven't posted here before? (that I recall, my apologizies if I'm forgetting) If bubbles were a worry, why weren't you here warning everyone all along...?
    4 Apr, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    WSD only comes outdoors when it's raining.
    4 Apr, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    Well that's silly. Sunny days are very nice. Why hang out only in the rain?

     

    ... and I'm not sure this is rain yet. It may be only a little mist.
    4 Apr, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    WSD, has been warning us all about the equity market since the S & p was @ 1600...
    4 Apr, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Take a walk dude. I was short these names. Just covered too early. I can live with that.
    4 Apr, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    None of this was commentary at you. WallStreetDebunker appeared out of nowhere to declare posters here have been unaware of the overvaluation sectors. ... You obviously weren't unaware :) !!
    4 Apr, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    I am fully in the rotation camp. I missed some of the momo selloff; having covered prior, but I see where the money is flowing; energy, materials; industrials, and EM's. Long all of these.
    4 Apr, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    I'm frothing about Coal stocks here. If we get any kind of rotation there like we did into Em's -- they could Double in a flash. You'ed think with real economy getting better -- Energy should strengthen.

     

    Nothing has been more hated; and shorted than coal.
    4 Apr, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    What is everyone doing? Awfully quite out there.
    4 Apr, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I'm just looking... I think it'd called "surprise." :). I'm considering buying EEM, and THD, and generally into EM. DOW (DIA) is up higher than it's been for a while, even with this dip. So right now, I'm just watching... this could be a correction. It could be a dip on the way to a bigger dip later. It's not nothing though -- to be this out of the blue. That hasn't happened in the year (which a short time) I've micro watched the market.

     

    I'm not selling anything though. (DIA) and (SPY) are still up -- and they'll get the buy in's. (IWM) will likely pop at least a little. Maybe good to lighten some of it?? (MU) tanked off a middling report, but low guidance. If decent earnings couldn't save it -- not sure what to think. Everything else held it's own, up, down a little.

     

    --------

     

    Saw an SA user's comment this morning. I didn't know whether to give it any credence. I haven't googled yet to see if any of it is true. At most it will produce a dip, and a chance to buy:

     

    The Ukraine is holding a presidential election on May 25th. It was originally supposed to be held in February 2015. The leading candidate, Poroshenko, is regarded as a moderate.

     

    Putin does not want this election to happen -- it would undermine his argument that the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine is under threat from far-right militants whom he describes as neo-fascists.

     

    Look for another Crimea scenario to take place in the next weeks -- and a volatility spike.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Apr, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    LMH,
    (MU) is a perfect example of indiscriminate selling , not only isn't it a momentum name, it has a PE under the S & P.

     

    BUT, it's associated with tech & today that was evil , so off a good earnings report it sold off 6% ...
    IMO , nothing has changed in the fundamental picture, in fact it got better ...
    there are other examples where the good will be tossed aside with the bad, that's when huge profits can be had.
    4 Apr, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I was wondering if (MU)'s techie-ness was the cause. It was up a lot BH off the report, 25.80. I don't see big a catalyst for it to go until the next report. ...So if that's not a good one - this intermediate trade could turn out to be a poor bet. (If looking for the worry path in this :). ) But good to know this strikes you as indiscriminate selling.

     

    I have to figure out what I want to buy... I doubt more (MU), but maybe there were other sell offs to jump on. (The bios GILD are on my list.)
    4 Apr, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    "associated with tech".

     

    Exactly. Plus extremely overbought, insider selling, and a "popular " sector. Buying that stuff is chasing the crowd. I don't chase the crowd. Easy way to lose money. Goes for stocks like biotech as well.

     

    You think low PE ratios are a guarantee of anything for a tech commodity chipmaker like MU?

     

    Those who made money today -- being only long -- because didn't follow the crowd.
    4 Apr, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    (MU) fell more than much higher PE stocks like (TWTR) and (FB).

     

    So I suppose PE ratios have little to do with it.

     

    Even those favourite (MSFT) and (GILD) got creamed today. It's called sector rotation, and for those who think they can ignore listening to the market, they'll get killed too.

     

    All the while those who pay attention were in energy and materials, not tech.
    4 Apr, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    take a walk with your rhetoric dude
    4 Apr, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    What goes around comes around.

     

    I suppose next you will say the selling in your stocks was "unfair". Sob, sob.

     

    I believe I was clear there was a lot of risk in these names-- long before today. A little advice -- It never pays to follow the "crowd".

     

    Oh well. Too bad I'm nowhere near as smart as you are.
    4 Apr, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    yep lots of risk in those names , i got it now, I'll follow your lead an open a position like u just did in (TSLA)

     

    no risk there --
    4 Apr, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    (MU)'s had much more range of pricing for a long time now. It's a smaller cap, lower volume, more swing trading stock. It hasn't compared to (TWTR) or (FB) all along.

     

    (GILD) was down less than (FB). (MSFT) has been low on growth for a long time now.
    5 Apr, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    I haven't seen this point made on (MU) but isn't there 99% institutional ownership of that name? My impression from the financial media both here and elsewhere is that it's a well-known and possibly crowded trade with the potential for more "sell the news" trimming and unwinding even against the backdrop of positive fundamentals.

     

    This could just be ordinary market dynamics and have nothing to do with the PE/valuation/etc.
    5 Apr, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Broken
    fair points , however , in my case i'm not day trading (MU) - instead , lets see how (MU) looks in 6- 9 months from now..

     

    While the market sentiment has changed and as u stated market dynamics may be at work , i'll maintain that if one has a position in (MU) (i'm in the name since jan - feb ) they hold onto that position , eventually the fundamentals will be recognized ...and selling upside calls is another way to pass the time, collect income until the market dynamics reverse..

     

    traders can do what they usually do , change their mind as they change their socks :)
    5 Apr, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    F&G -Cyclical tech names like MU often have p/e's below the market average - sometimes significantly below.

     

    Personally I hate most of tech as investments. Many are too dependent on product cycles and the next new thing. You have to be really on top of the company and unfortunately most people who invest in this area get blindsided when competition changes the landscape. They have no moat. Trade them technically if you can buy after a breakout from an extended base or downtrend, but getting long after they've made a significant move is often dangerous.

     

    I know that if I buy JNJ at too high a price it will eventually come back and I'm compensated with a div in the meantime. When I buy a tech stock at too high a price it may never be profitable.
    5 Apr, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome Broken Clock!

     

    I was basing my comments on how much movement it's had daily over the last few months. It swings 1-2% and back, intradaily.
    5 Apr, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    I see a huge rotation developing here, and I don't think I'll try to market time it. Conversely, the selloff in the momo names, while contributing to an ugly day, may be signaling the timing for this rotation is now. In this regard, it's a market of stocks.

     

    For years now the energy and materials sectors has been literally left for dead. However, seeing such diverse names like (CAT) (EWZ) (ITW) and (X) shows their may be a market cycle led by the "real economy" stocks.

     

    Also noteworthy -- China communicating with their mini - stimulus -- they will place a floor under their growth. Every day brings us that much closer to massive Nat Gas exports, and Republican representation in the Govt, both market friendly for coal.

     

    One day, we will also have expansionary fiscal policy again, and capex will return . All beneficiary for the "real economy"

     

    Natural Gas looks very strong here, and the producers are screaming higher. Breakouts from multi year basing patterns are occurring. All of this -- may be on expectation of both higher growth and higher inflation expectations.

     

    I've switched mindset somewhat, and become more constructive on a longer term basis, while acknowledging corrections can happen. There are still undervalued sectors, and monetary policy is still very accommodative.

     

    I've also become convinced of 2 things -- the FED will not really tighten until they are positive there is strong growth -- and while active investment professionals are long the market, longer term "public" money is not so much. Mom and Pop -- may not be really in the way I had believed.

     

    So we may have a way to go -- to see this -- and "bubbles" in all sectors -- not just one or 2.

     

    Long --- (ANR) (JOY) (TSLA) (CHK) (AGNC) ((MBT) (GXG) ((EPHE), others.

     

    I've played the short side on the overvalued momentum stocks, but that is a very difficult game longer term in a ZIRP environment. There will come a time for the short side in earnest, but it will be during a serious FED tightening cycle, with 400,000 new jobs every month.
    4 Apr, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    One the most lucid posts you have made. Commodities, energy and emerging markets all look to have huge upside potential, if the broader market cooperates.
    4 Apr, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    >> "Mom and Pop -- may not be really in"

     

    I know they aren't in my world. My mom is first paying attention to my activities with interest... but to get in "no way, she's lived through a crash!" - she tells me panicky every time I buy. My friend is disappointed that the market didn't work out because her 2000 ETFs are no better off than they were. My BIL says the way to make a million dollars in the stock market is to start with 2 million. And the same with *every* conversation with everyone. I'm the only lay person interested in getting in.
    4 Apr, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Lucid, yeah. Remember I don't write for anyone else, but for me as a way of tracking my own thoughts. I was a pit trader. That's not a place you do very well by caring what anyone else thinks. I do my own thinking and research. I don't follow anyone else, whether that be Carl Ichan or some SA dweeb.

     

    I've always thought coal and Nat gas would come back one day big if the economy did. What I couldnt decide was -- and Im still not entirely convinced -- if deflation might take hold here, which is rather unfriendly for industrial type commodities.

     

    If we eventually get some Capex / and or someone in the administration who would stop hating coal / and China resuming some growth / and the Canada pipeline, these commodities will take off. Maybe the stocks are starting to forecast better times for the economy ahead / and higher inflation expectations. We'll see and hopefully not another head fake.
    4 Apr, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Of course, you hadn't been sounding like this at all, lately. You were shorting issues and sectors and making very dubious comments about the broader market. Now, it appears that you've had a revelation of sorts and see things a bit differently, on a broader basis.

     

    For me, I concur with your newer thinking, and I'll add that I don't like even the more solid of the go-go names, as opposed to the social-media stocks, etc., because even the more solid names, like MU and GILD have had too much of run-up, and they don't necessarily represent "value" on their drops. To make money on them requires a resumption of the mania, not a cold, hard assessment of value.

     

    Therefore, the smarter play is to shift money to issues and sectors selling, still, at steep discounts. These are almost universally found in commodities, energy and various emerging-market issues. The value is clearly there in these areas and doesn't require reactivation of buying momentum, as do many of the issues in the previous hot areas, that are still selling a sizable multiples to their recent past.

     

    The "go-go" is "went-went."
    4 Apr, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I agree. I had -- still have some doubts based on the 2011 model when QE was halted. Risk appetite disappeared -- but Europe was more of an issue. I do question that Europe is "solved" with their sovereign debt -- but the market thinks so, that can stay on the shelf for now.

     

    The dynamic for me that favors these energy sectors, is they are much more depressed -- even than 2011 --- we are overdue for capex -- and I now think this bull will more likely end with a bubble "everywhere" -- not narrow -- as the public participation grows. If the Fed is successful in raising inflation -- which i am leaning towards -- these sectors will take off.

     

    As I've said I was never particularly bearish on the SPX -- a "bubble " there would be 2400+ to me. Maybe higher. That's 20 x 120 SPX eps.

     

    I agree -- there is no percentage in "chasing" overbought sectors. I am long (TSLA) for a trade -- it has acted unbelievably resilant during this momo slaughter.

     

    I trade both ways. Not married to either side. But I confess I have had to fight "the 2008 mental stamp" in my own mind. I suppose then it still deeply affects Mom and Pop investor. Certainly no- one I know outside my colleagues -- ever, ever talks about stocks. Ever. No interest.

     

    The last major bull ended in 2000. 14 years. We might be due for another long term bull.
    4 Apr, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    "The last major bull ended in 2000. 14 years. We might be due for another long term bull.""

     

    I have written about the secular bull theme since mid 2013.

     

    Your revelation that this trend is in place may in fact signal an intermediate top and correction are at hand.

     

    since many of the johnny come lately's to the party often get trapped when they enter at all time highs..
    5 Apr, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    T,
    I'll take the other side of that argument on (GILD) and (MU)
    While we may have seen the sentiment change here , in my view these may be among the babies when the bathwater is thrown away..

     

    so , in keeping with my mode of transparency and sharing ideas ,

     

    as stated here, (GILD) was bought @ 69.70, the Apr 75 calls were sold for $1.53 , - breakeven is $68.17

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    as far as energy and "oils" , some now wish to preach to the choir, ---- but I'm well aware of the 'oils & energy" (CXO) PXD) & (WLL) were all bought in late '13 . (prices recorded in my blog) , when they were bought in late '13 and now stand with 25% gains.

     

    (MU) was added in Jan @ 22.70,

     

    and again in Feb @ 24.40 as a covered write - sold the march 28 weekly 24.50 call for $1.09. , they expired , and just sold the Apr 25 weekly 24.50 for 1.10 -- my cost on that block is $22.21 that is all documented in the cov. call portfolio in the blog

     

    so lets see how these two play out in the short term

     

    5 Apr, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    If you believe that, feel free to short the market.

     

    I think Johnny come lately's would apply to biotech and semiconductors, not EM's and coal stocks.
    5 Apr, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    You sure love to promote yourself. No different than any number of worthless shills out there. Planning a website for $4.95 per month?

     

    Always astounds me, how investors claiming to have mastered the markets and making millions, would have a reason to sell their secrets for $4.95.
    5 Apr, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tone is edgy here. Can we get back to non-personal, and focus on -investing opinions-?

     

    Market got tense yesterday -- it's best for us all to add ideas and value... to see if collectively we get more insight.

     

    Fear - Macro isn't a johnny come lately to investing in this market. Not everyone negative has missed out - some invest while worrying. It is true that he seems to be changing sentiment.

     

    Macro - no one's a troll focused on critiquing other's success. The critiques are of other's opinions on the market. (It's kind of hard to have a debate on viewpoints -- without criticizing each other's views.) If a comment bothers you as inappropriate, please point that out specifically -- (or let me know, if you don't want to be bothered.)

     

    Hope that helps... I'm trying to understand what the market's actions are telling us. So far the answer is -- no one's sure.
    5 Apr, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    macro,

     

    Not promoting at all , just telling it like it is ,

     

    i share my ideas and decide to document them , that's all ----- so its not ALL TALK..

     

    if u don t want to listen dont read it ..
    5 Apr, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I'm not comfortable with this comment. It's too personal an attack. FG isn't promoting himself. He's view is that if he post's his investments, it helps with transparency so others can judge him. That's not intended as an affront to you, nor a comment at your investing. It's one of those "hard to get the tone of voice over the internet" things.
    5 Apr, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    LMH,,
    tone isnt edgy at all -- i dont partake in any personal attacks .. just stating facts.

     

    the Johnny come lately are those that are just now realizing what many here on SA have said for months , if not years.

     

    my comment was directed to those that are now wearing those shoes..
    5 Apr, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Worthless shill -- Hmmmm .....4.95 - please elaborate
    5 Apr, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    LMH--

     

    I respectfully disagree -- about the self promotion.

     

    It's something I don't care for and inappropriate for this community. What value is there to bring back and brag about every past trade we've done?
    5 Apr, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    macro,
    i'm not concerned what u care for,,

     

    ALL of the trades are posted here -- win lose or draw.

     

    I share ideas , if someone wishes to follow so be it .

     

    if they work out and are productive positions i hope someone has followed along and made $ ,

     

    if not ,anyone can take my comments with a grain of salt and move on !

     

    I get plenty of push back here on SA , for being transparent -- & i'm not interested in those that believe its shilling or self promoting..

     

    as some have done ok following an idea or two from me ..

     

    therefore i decided to be different ,, post and document rather than provide worthless drivel , as is abundant here on SA
    5 Apr, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Good. Post and be wrong. Please post when you panic out of (GILD). I might buy it then.
    5 Apr, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    Key word is if. Obviously I would have preferred to keep my momentum shorts until today, but I didnt see it coming.
    4 Apr, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2456) | Send Message
     
    It looks like "sector rotation" will be the latest trendy theme promoting the geriatric bull market to retail investors. Newsletter writers, bloggers, and CNBC talking heads will soon be hyping up a new and improved Great Rotation--because the previous Great Rotation out of bonds never happened as predicted. The new Great Rotation theme will predict the selling of bubble sectors and buying of value traps (like Cisco and RIG), risky debt-burdened junk stocks (like Coal and Steel stocks) and emerging market sandcastles (like China and Brazil).
    4 Apr, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WSD

     

    This blog has focused on what everyone thinks is a good way to invest to increase and protect their portfolio. So if you don't like stuff about the market, please suggest what you recommend be done.

     

    Saying everything is a bad bet implies you suggest moving to cash and stashing it away. So that's your big point?

     

    All of which has nothing to do with how long term investors work with the market. It's kind of a stopper to all conversation about investing.

     

    So in sticking with the blogs goals & style, please participate by stating WHAT YOU WOULD do right now with your own money. And how you've done before in following that way of investing over the years.
    5 Apr, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Oh my ,

     

    value traps, bubble sectors, EM sandcastles , whats an investor to do ?

     

    where can we hide so we don't get slaughtered and lose all of the profits that were harvested in the last 4-5 yrs. ?

     

    Shall we now go to where the losers of the last 4 years have been hiding out and join them in their caves reading Gold periodicals.. ?

     

    Surely someone has these answers..

     

    Then again , should anyone listen to those that have had it wrong for so very long ??

     

    Random fear mongering thoughts to ponder over the weekend

     

    Happy investing
    5 Apr, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    WS,

     

    Are you short the coal stocks? I love short squeezes, theres a huge one coming there.
    4 Apr, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of coal I have my eyes on (KOL). Almost pulled the trigger. Amazing chart.

     

    Krusty
    5 Apr, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    Further, global reliance on coal is projected to continue to increase as India and other developing countries seek a better life for their citizens. In fact, in the IEA New Policies Scenario, coal consumption is projected to increase 24% by 2035, compared to 2009. In the Current Policies Scenario, a 65% increase is projected. From 1990‐2035, based on a population increase of 3.2 billion people and economic growth of over USD 125 trillion, coal is projected to actually increase its contribution to global energy consumption between 1 900 and 3 200 million tonnes of oil equivalent.

     

    Source:IEA

     

    Coal is booming in Europe:

     

    http://bit.ly/QPkJXn

     

    That's why US coal producers are exporting there:

     

    http://bit.ly/1fMG0cU

     

    Another interesting article here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1sl9aVV

     

    There are more than 1,200 coal plants on the drawing boards, mainly in develeloping economies.
    5 Apr, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    I agree. I think it's only a matter of time, sentiment and some world growth to work off the oversupply from 2007-8. I have tried several times to pick the bottom of this sector. We will see if this is the year. Seems to be catalysts potentially in place.
    5 Apr, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • 15690152
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Another unloved energy sector is uranium. It is still in the doldrums after being crushed by Fukushima. The total shut down of Japanese reactors produced a glut of supply that has still not worked its way out. However, with the recently ended megatons to megawatts program and for other reasons discussed below, uranium spot prices have probably bottomed.

     

    For all the reasons cited for coal, they are equally applicable to uranium. Notwithstanding Germany swearing off nuclear energy by 2022, we’ll see how that goes after the Crimean fallout, according to the World Nuclear Association, 72 nuclear plants are currently under construction worldwide, with 173 planned and 309 proposed. Heck, Saudi Arabia is even planning on building 16 new plants with the first coming online in 2022. China is gung-ho on building new plants with 28 plants under construction, 57 planned, and 118 proposed. India has 6 under construction, 22 planned and 35 proposed. For economic reasons - importing energy is just another drag on the economy - Abe is on track to fire up some reactors in Japan by mid-summer. This should help nudge the spot price, although most uranium is bought on contract.

     

    A main player, (CCJ), has already had a nice run this year, but I believe has significantly more upside on a movement in spot. (RIO) produces a lot of different metals and minerals in addition to Uranium, but it gives some exposure. (URA) is also a good way to play and has also had a good run this year. Another player to consider is (OTC:UUUU), which owns the only mill in the U.S. but trades on extremely thin volume. If you really want to walk on the wild side and have a stash of "mad" money, a person could consider OTC (OTCQX:FCUUF), which is primarily traded on the vulture exchange, not for the feint of heart, as (FCU). This stock is not so much spec because it has proven pounds in the ground and not merely pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking, but you have to put up with all the shenanigans that go along with a stock traded in the wild, wild west that is the TSX.

     

    Uranium is a long term play as spot will probably not move until the second half of the year, but once it does, if history guides, the movement on miners and producers could be parabolic. The downside risk is another Fukushima-type disaster, which there have only been three in the 50 year history of nuclear power - Three Mile, Chernobyl, and Fukushima.
    6 Apr, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • DENISO
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    I bought CCJ immediately after the Fukushima panic, and added some more, the following year. Can't understand why, as best of breed, it hasn't been discovered for the gem it is. Uranium is the only really clean energy source, and plants designed properly are the safest form of energy production. No trainloads of coal, oil or Nat. gas constantly supplying the plants, is a big plus.
    Costs are too high, and we have to shut down our nuke in San Diego because it is too expensive to repair, although California makes everything too expensive, and doing business, here, nearly impossible.
    Regards,
    6 Apr, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Now that there's been time to try to digest yesterday's change in market patterns...what's everyone's thoughts?

     

    DD, BSF, JBT, Cwinn, User7, Yair...any thoughts?

     

    EM's been down for so long, that it seems good to me, even though it'd take a hit if there's a US correction, then bounce back.
    5 Apr, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    FG writes -- "as you finally see a long term bull market, being a (loser) Johnny come lately, an intermediate top must be in".

     

    Hilarious. And perhaps right, but this would greatly help my long positions, likely. Huh?

     

    Let me explain, to FG as he clearly just doesn't get it. Not a clue on correlation of markets, and why things seem to happen out of no - where.

     

    First, from a time point of view -- major bull and bear cycles last 14-16 years or so -- we are getting due for a long secular bull market. That's secular, and has no bearing on this year or any one year.

     

    Next, I still think a correction is coming at some point, but am long. Huh, again? But what am I long? Give you a hint -- Nasdaq weakens lately -- Brazil takes off. Why? Did something change in Brazil, or will change? Uh, no.

     

    What is occurred, is big hedge funds were levered long on social media, biotech, cloud, and levered short on EM's, esp. Brazil and china, but also coal stocks, iron ore stocks, etc.

     

    Those trades are getting unwound, and some of the action like Fridays is forced -- margin calls. The bet I am making, is the unwind of long, margined bets in overvalued stocks like (GILD) and (MU) will also create, or accelerate, an unwind in the massive short bets against undervalued, hated stocks like (CLF) (ANR) both of which I'm long, and were up on Friday -- along with most stocks I own.

     

    This is why -- Jim Rogers says you can't invest in US steel without understanding Malaysian palm oil. You have to understand the correlation of markets.
    5 Apr, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    What makes you say (MU) is overvalued?
    5 Apr, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    I'm in Macro's camp on this one. Let's take a look at MU's history and, more specifically, that last five years:

     

    Here's MU's EPS record:

     

    2009 - ($2.20)
    2010 - $1.57
    2011 - $0.01
    2012 - ($1.03)
    2013 - $0.28
    2014E - $2.96

     

    It's obvious, both from this pattern and from MU's longer history, that it's highly cyclical, unpredictable and inconsistent in its earnings pattern and shows no consistent growth. In essence, assigning a suitable P/E and relevant meaning thereof is entirely a crap shoot.

     

    From mid-2004 to the beginning of 2013, MU's price went from $15 down to $5. Now, in a little over one year, it's skyrocketed 400%! Do we see anything is the earnings pattern above that would provide confidence that MU is suddenly going to be a reliable high-growth profit producer? Is there any remote reason to think that an issue with a +400% one-year chart suggests that it's "undervalued," even after a very modest pullback?

     

    Against this background the fact that it may be just under its 200-day EMA, but still way above its 50-day EMA, means almost nothing to an investor, as opposed to a trader. In my book, the risks in this type of play are anything but suggestive of "value." This is an issue that can only resume upward trajectory, if trading momentum is regained, not based on any confidence in fundamentals. Compared to issues and sectors selling at 50-75% discounts from recent multi-year highs, MU, still selling way above its historic valuations, remains purely a speculative issue, almost the antithesis of depressed value.
    5 Apr, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    T, good point.

     

    "history" is extremely relevant to a market, sector, or company. It's rare that a company completely reinvents itself to move beyond its own history, although not unheard of by any means. (AAPL) comes to mind.
    5 Apr, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    T,
    thanks for your take on (MU)

     

    I don't believe (MU) is a "core" holding by any means and never said that , its an intermediate holding at best, and as i would name its a "special situation"

     

    I'm fully aware of the "history" and cyclical nature of (MU) .

     

    However my thoughts on (MU) go back to the fall of '13 , when I came upon the fact that (MU) purchased elpida.

     

    http://bit.ly/13Cf2KH
    for me that was a potential game changer --

     

    I wrote back then, "As Micron fully integrates Elpida over the next few quarters, I expected margins, estimates, and the multiple to expand as investors fully digest Micron’s new earnings profile."

     

    So far , at least from the earnings standpoint that has worked out .

     

    I wasn't disappointed with the last quarter at all ..

     

    in fact in the recent report, what’s interesting is that despite Hynix’ Wuxi fab coming online and a seasonally slow demand environment, Micron was able to meet its expectations for ASPs in both DRAM and NAND.

     

    so once again I am not deterred by anything that I have seen. In my view the reason I bought the shares is still in tact.

     

    Sure the market may go against me as sentiment towards these names change .

     

    If the thesis that I thought would transpire dosn't continue,,, I'll have to re-evaluate. so far that isn't the case. and if it does continue I'll give it the time it deserves

     

    & that's what makes a market
    :)
    5 Apr, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    LMH -- let me "rephrase" that -- overvalued is highly subjective.

     

    (MU) is part of a sector -- and this really, really matters-- that is "over owned" and "over popular" and bought with "over levered" money. Hence it got slammed.

     

    Even if there is no correction -- and even if (MU) is a great company -- it still might underperform if in the wrong side of a sector undergoing rotation to "under owned " areas of the market.

     

    Who knows? Might roar back Monday. But there is definate rotation happening out there, that's my point.
    5 Apr, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Yep, true-- sector is selling off. If it had been a long term investment I'd just wait. But as an intermediate term, hence my concern that it won't get a chance to pop back up before there's other reasons to get out (like change in the business particulars.)

     

    On it's own right now - it seems undervalued for it's business model. ...so we'll see... There are a few things, that if they pop up I'm getting out till they come down again.
    5 Apr, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    LMH. One more point for your study. Price change almost always, leads announced change in fundamentals, least of all because insider trading is always there. Fact of life.

     

    None of this is say micron won't bounce to 25 or even 30, and you'll make money -- hope you do.. Its simply the long term risk / reward is not nearly as good as other ideas now, at least to me.
    5 Apr, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    macro,
    your point comes with a trader mentality , we will see how (MU) fares in the next 6- 9 months..

     

    How many times does that have to be written before u get it .
    5 Apr, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    it's like when I hear on CNBC during severe corrections, "Im a Long Term Investor"-- this is code for " I'm getting killed because I screwed up, but I'm still morally superior to those who sold out".
    5 Apr, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    LMH, the issue with (MU) is the same issue so many investors deal with, that's chasing performance. In early 2013, the stock was in the $6 range. It quadrupled to 24 in a year and a bit.

     

    Don't you think a lot of good news is priced? Do you really understand (MU) at a deep level, the industry issues, competitors? Or is it just a popular name that David Einhorn bought a lot of? What if he has sold now?

     

    Just questions to consider for you.

     

    I've done a lot of reading on coal. Most every article on SA, comments from people in the industry. Tech is harder, because it changes.
    5 Apr, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    I wasn't chasing performance. I was under the impression the fundamental numbers added up to a higher price. I didn't even know Einhorn has bought until long after I did (or who he was).

     

    However, do I understand it? Not as much as I'd like. It's why I said I needed to step back, use ETFs for more of my money and go into stocks more slowly. I'm not new to the market at all, but I am new to buying individual stocks -- and it shows. It's also why I've asked if folks have books on fundamentals that they'd suggest (no one's every had one -- just the investopedia site and SA articles, which help.)

     

    I picked a tech because I have a tech background & have some feel for the industry. Reading on coal and oil was more confusing.

     

    It's funny the "good news priced in" crossed my mind on Friday. While it's been going up at times, Friday made me wonder if insiders knew something to focus on that stock so much. However, it's been a very "emotional" stock on trades, so it could mean nothing.

     

    The sell off Friday in the various sectors, took everyone by surprise - no obvious catalyst for that day. But I had wished I'd taken my profit before the downturn.

     

    Tack

     

    I'd seen it's past and it is very mercurial. Those are good points... Much appreciated for laying it all out so clearly.

     

    The earlier years of down, were based on then changing management style and making the product in a desirable way again. Their position in the market is entirely different than it used to be, in very good ways.

     

    It was a FG idea, and I was sticking with the 6-9 month idea - this was never a long term purchase. If the market doesn't correct or it's mild... this stock very well may get the momentum again. It's been a slow build with backslides all during that 400% climb.

     

    Living and learning...
    5 Apr, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13400) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    The idea of "value" investing to to identify and buy issues before the 400% increases, not after. It's when they look decidedly ugly, with a downtrending chart like MU had for nine years, that contrarian value plays get built, not after they skyrocket. It may or may not go higher, but it's not a "value" play, anymore, no matter what it does.
    5 Apr, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T,

     

    True it's not an undervalued play per se. It's not selling at a deep discount to it's previous - for less than important reasons, which is how I'd define undervalued. So it wouldn't qualify as one of your style purchases. But I did see a set up that I wanted to try for -- the growth potential comes from current potential on current changes -- not a shift to undervalued from the past. It's also my only non-high yield, which is a negative.
    5 Apr, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    This is one I should have put a stop on a long time ago and made sure to keep the gains. It was up 6% shortly after I bought it. Then got wiggly. Popped again a few times after that too.

     

    But all your points are valid. In this sideways market, I'm looking for new ideas at undervalued sectors and yield to make the wait worthwhile... as long as I want them long term too.
    5 Apr, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
     
    LMH:
    Start with "Security Analysis" http://amzn.to/1hgGoTc
    I'd read it a few times.
    5 Apr, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    Thanks!! And I've seen you do fundamentals, so I know it's something you know about :).
    5 Apr, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    you have done a great job here in setting up this blog.

     

    I'm sure folks are tired of reading the bickering that is taking place here.. its distracting and offers no value to anyone interested in investing .. I'll apologize for my part in that role..

     

    I'll simply post my thoughts /ideas and present a link to them , if one wishes to take a look so be it.

     

    they can then take their counter arguments there rather than have countless arguments ruin your platform

     

    :)
    5 Apr, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Thanks for these thoughts! Sounds good to me.

     

    I like the focus on investing -- not making it personal. It's hard not to clash, when opinions are strong. Yet strongly opinionated people, make for a better blog.

     

    Yes, if the urge to argue can be taken more locally to your links, that'd be nice.

     

    :)
    5 Apr, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    Been traveling and also very busy. FWIW...I didn't care too much for (MU) because I played (HIMX) mid summer 2013. It ran and then stalled, sold for a nice profit. I did however like FG's (BBBY) and (TGT). Both are currently green for me. (TGT) is a long term hold and I won't be selling, can't say the same for (BBBY). I also like the EM's. I've purchased(EWZ) and it's up. I looked at (CHL) but never pulled the trigger. I've also been in the grains. I liked macros (MBT) long play and started a position awhile back in my IRA. This too has been green since purchase. I looked at (SDRL) and didn't like it. It made a small run and then fell further from when I first looked. I purchased this too after further falling and it too has remained green for me since purchase. Therefore, I appreciate the heads up from all on everything. Some I agree and dip in, some I don't. All in all I'm not to worried. The market is going to do what the market does. I just don't see any major collapse on the horizon. Things were too depressed for way too long. There was a lot of pent up 'frustration' and I'm seeing way too much positive in my line of work. After several years of what I'd call a 'development depression', there are finally people doing deals. I in no way shape or form feel like I did late 2008 when I saw a complete collapse unfolding before my eyes. Once again I reiterate this is just my opinion and I might be totally wrong, BUT I'm moving forward every two weeks depositing money into my Simple IRA, ROTH IRA, and taxable account.
    5 Apr, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CWinn

     

    All very interesting thoughts...

     

    I'm wishing I'd bought more variety at the time (it was a dip). Maybe I would have hit more that stayed green. (TGT) is marginally green for me. I skipped (SDRL) too - I didn't understand the numbers for it, even though the business concept is straightforward (rents rigs).

     

    You're buying works in an overall bull market... It's the sane way to approach this all :).
    5 Apr, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Cwinn

     

    I don't think anyone will be disappointed with purchasing (TGT) under 60 --- over the long haul,

     

    (BBBY) has had a nice 10% stealth rally since i mentioned it..

     

    earnings coming up next week, & will determine if the rally holds..

     

    I may sell upside calls to protect those gains before earnings are announced.

     

    best of luck
    5 Apr, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    One other item, with all the noise recently, I quietly had my largest one month distribution of dividends.
    5 Apr, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CWinn

     

    Sounds nice - congrats on the divs!
    5 Apr, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • DENISO
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    The "Oils" were hated for quite some time; no good reason for it, other than Funds doing the "herd" thing, and driving the sector as low as possible before setting-up the next Up-rotation. Negative articles, exaggerating minor problems, are a dead giveaway that the intent is to scare shareholders.
    I am an old investor, too much of a gambler, maybe, but it is all really a "game". Be sure the dividend is there and is relatively solid, and take the opportunities as they come. Don't look for immediate gains, and things will work out.
    I like LINE and SDRL for the above reasons, and I've seen attacks on others, like BPL, which went back to their proper value when the attack game was over:
    http://yhoo.it/1ejRRvp;range=2y
    Use your own best judgment, based on real fundamentals and your best guess of the future.
    SDRL has scary debt to many, but they took it on when interest rates were at all time lows. They can pay it off faster than most big capital intensive Co's.

     

    Your most valuable asset is your health, and you need to be proactive to protect it. Exercise will protect you from most killer diseases and other disabilites, and best of all, make you feel good. Our bodies, for about 6 million years, survied on physical exertion, not sitting.
    Regards,
    6 Apr, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Thoughts on the market , new highs and new sentiment ?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Apr, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5088) | Send Message
     
    Tack made this call a while ago,,

     

    http://bit.ly/1kdamta

     

    maybe just the start,
    5 Apr, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4059) | Send Message
     
    A bit of commentary on my "style". On the long side, it's a little bit of a hybrid. On the conservative side, I hold 3 yield plays,

     

    (MBT) (http://bit.ly/zgclHA) and (http://bit.ly/1q6iuJf). All three pay great yields, and I am well ahead. No plans to sell these, as I think they are all very cheap. I also hold 2 EM ETF's.

     

    Now for the agressive side. I believe there is a time you can swing for the fences, and because I don't need any dividend income, I can afford to do so.

     

    First long is controversial -- (http://bit.ly/RGdvEj). I believe a fairly dire scenario is priced into this stock, so I am long it and way out of the money calls -- plus each month I sell expensive puts. I think the FTC will slap them hard on the wrist, and the stock will go nuts.

     

    Second is coal, well talked about. Nothing is more hated, but still needed for decades by the world economy. I'm long 2 names practically priced for bankruptcy. I see a huge comeback alongside Natural Gas as the economy ( hopefully ) accelerates, and we have a hot summer and another cold winter. Fortunes could be made here. I really believe almost every negative under the sun is priced in -- and there are at least 3 potential catalysts that could cause an upside explosion. One happening would be enough.

     

    I am also long (http://bit.ly/AeGhcV) which is restructuring alongside massive insider buying, a Canadian Nat gas producer, and a Canadian driller, ( which will benefit from the pipeline that will be approved).

     

    These stocks are right now ignored, but breaking out from multi - year bases. Rounding out energy is a mid sized uranium producer, (http://bit.ly/Omud3G), which will benefit from Japans return to nuclear. Again very cheap.

     

    These are all longer term investments.

     

    In the trading category would be (http://bit.ly/cANO8m), which I am already well postive this year trading it. (http://bit.ly/cANO8m) began to rally hard this week out of its consolidation base, and refused to give much ground Friday until quite late in the day. Very powerful action. Any SnapBack (http://bit.ly/cANO8m) will likely lead. On Fridays action I sold expensive puts as the crowd panicked for volatility protection.

     

    My puts expire prior to earnings, and I expect the stock to rally or at least churn up to earnings -- which would still work out.

     

    Back to energy -- notice Oil quietly up to 101. We might see, with any economic strength, $120 oil and a lot of attention will come back to this sector. Notice too -- Nat Gas holding over $4.50, during a very weak seasonal period. Imagine if we have a hot summer, another cold winter. Inventories are way down. If you don't like (CHK), (ECA) is an excellent blue chip name here.

     

    Best to all this coming week.
    5 Apr, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    If you are inclined to repost this with the stock names filled in (SA seems to have gotten rid of them) on the new blog...
    5 Apr, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This got long, so here's Chapter 15!
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    There are many investing ideas... that are the starting points for conversation... so please bring them forward with you!
    5 Apr, 10:58 PM Reply Like
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