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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #15 196 comments
    Apr 5, 2014 10:57 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #15. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments.

    Here's a link to the prior, #14: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/2801633-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-14?v=1396744458

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long IWM, DIA, SPY, MU, LINE, CVX, PSEC, TCAP.

    Additional disclosure: ...and many more...

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (196)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    So I'm wondering... have you seen the market in a place like this before...
    high, good data coming in,
    & a sell off in sectors with no particular trigger that day... ...what happened next on those occasions?
    6 Apr, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    For those new to the instablog... we've moved onto chapter #16: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Come and join us :) !
    11 Apr, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (842) | Send Message
     
    Hi LOMAH,

     

    The market is not that high. In fact, the Dow is barely 35% higher than it was 14 years ago (ex dividends).

     

    To me, a rotation from momentum/growth to "value" stocks is just normal...until the growth stocks are mispriced again...so we'll have another rotation.

     

    The most interesting thing right now is the fact that after 5 years most people still do not buy that bull. Furthermore, we still have a gigantic pool of cash on the side lines. Finally, the housing market seems rock solid. Bull! :)

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    6 Apr, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Krusty :-)

     

    Good points!

     

    By high I meant, within the current channel and compared to earnings... indices seem to have gotten ahead of the data and need a small correction/dip to equalize. True, the market is barely above it's long term high! -- I'm definitely in the "bull will continue" camp.

     

    So your seeing it as standard old rotation, growth moving back to value.

     

    It's the "no particular trigger" on Friday's move, that's new to me. Wondering how that tends to play out...
    6 Apr, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    There is a distinct diversion right now between the DOW/SPX and the NDX/RUT.

     

    To oversimplify , there are two potential scenarios :

     

    The Dow/SPX at near all time highs , consolidate and mark time here while the NDX/RUT correct ,reverse and the uptrend resumes.

     

    OR

     

    The NDX/RUT are in fact leading, and the Dow/SPX are getting ready to follow them lower.

     

    and by "lower" , by no means am i suggesting a collapse..
    6 Apr, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    The thing, to me, that most belies the latter scenario is the strong rotational showing in commodities, energy and emerging markets. Those, of all sectors, would be the ones least into which one would expect money flows if the market were gearing up for a decline.
    6 Apr, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • DENISO
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Wouldn't you agree that it could also indicate a shift from "Risk Off" to "Risk On", again?
    The Oils and Materials' downtrend appears to be reversing, for one thing.
    Regards,
    8 Apr, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Chowder outlines his style of picking DGI stocks and makes a point I wanted to share... though the value buyers here already know it :).
    http://bit.ly/URIriC

     

    For large stocks, if they have not just high yield, but dividend growth... that growth forces stock price growth. As the dividend increases, the yield gets higher, so the market equalizes that by buying the stock... So you get the best of both worlds, yield and growth, when buying good quality DGI. (...studied specifically on large cap.)
    6 Apr, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    LMH

     

    I usually check his "chowder" rule that is available in the DGI spreadsheet .. usually represents good LT value and can help in helping select & setting up "core " positions

     

    I noticed his latest fav's (MSFT) , CSX) , & (IBM) all have high results when using that as a tool..

     

    I incorporated that rule as one factor when i determined (TGT) was a good buy after it fell apart during the cCard debacle
    6 Apr, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    Reposting what I just offered in Jeff Miller's excellent weekly discussion:

     

    The current market behavior appears almost entirely trader led and to a degree makes sense from a trader's perspective. To wit, even if the current economic reports suggest that things are improving into the spring, we may still see some weak Q1 reports and misses, given that this data represents what actually happened in winter quarter, not where we're headed now. Given the market's usual nervousness at new peaks, the trader's may be anticipating that they can capitalize on a short-term news-driven downswing from corporate reports, which may, inopportunely, scare some investors into selling. Personally, I'd expect any such dip to be very limited because the outlook, in fact, remains positive and because, as has been the case for a long time, there's simply too many prospective buyers waiting to buy dips, so they can't gain any significant downside traction.

     

    Another indicator that the markets are not poised for a broad and lengthy general sell-off is the fact that much of the selling we've seen has merely been rotation out of very overvalued tech and biotech names and into the lagging commodities, energy and emerging-market sectors. Money would not be aggressively moving to these areas, in particular, if the market thought some major deflationary downturn was in store.

     

    So, depending on how corporate reports, and the reaction thereto, play out, there might be a chance for a quick trading buck for very nimble traders, but, beyond that, the outlook for investors remains positive.
    6 Apr, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    T,
    IMO, Miller should be a weekly read for investors.. he's been on the right side of the trade for quite some time now..
    6 Apr, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (842) | Send Message
     
    @Tack: yes regarding the traders led market and "we may still see some weak Q1 reports and misses, given that this data represents what actually happened in winter quarter, not where we're headed now". In other words, we have another possibility to buy quality stocks at reasonable valuations.

     

    @F&G: Re: Dow/SPX vs NDX/RUT, The Dow/SPX will consolidate while the NDX/RUT adjust to more sustainable valuations before resuming their uptrend IMHO.

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    6 Apr, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,,

     

    I like your way of thinking :)
    6 Apr, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    keep buying these dips, there are some real bargains out there today.

     

    (MAT) is down, it's a solid company with over 4% dividend

     

    (BGS) has gone up over $2 since last Thursday; in the green now with this food company & it a 4% plus dividend

     

    one of my biggest money makers today….. (CELG) bought it on the dip Friday, back over $2 today.

     

    It has been said that (HSY) is a stock that can give you a quick read on the US economy. It was up Friday, and is up more today.
    7 Apr, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Interesting how the Nasdaq was down the most (percentage wise) last Friday. Today it's the Dow that is down the most.

     

    So they sold tech & biopharm last week to buy solid companies and now it's out of that and back into "crazy" stocks today? Don't worry, by the end of the week the ship will steady.

     

    My old time value, dividend stocks are holding up well. Hello utilities, glad to see you still have some upside. If you have a well balanced portfolio, you're doing fine during this dip. Still have plenty of cash for the next one. Since it keeps coming in every week from my dividend stocks, I always have cash to take advantage of any market dips.

     

    You know me, cash is what lets me sleep at night. So if we get the super big dip, I have my cash hoard ready for that too.

     

    I love a good market correction ; )
    7 Apr, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    EWZ continues to tell us that all this is much ado about nothing. Emerging markets don't go on bull rallies if market and/or economic collapses are signaled.
    7 Apr, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    Further comment:

     

    This decline is all trader driven, and probably smartly so. The traders are betting that Q1 corporate reports will be soft (although they know that's a transient weather phenomenon), so they're selling down and shorting the market in anticipation, expecting the broader investment community to dump shares when the soft reports arrive.

     

    Of course, that's precisely when they'll cover, and we'll immediately start ramping back up in the other direction.
    7 Apr, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    T,
    I agree, and will add -- traders and hedge fund managers that may be in control of the price action at the moment typically under perform the averages..
    7 Apr, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Short term :

     

    Support @ S & P 1835 - 1840 - may once again come into play -- that levels held 3 times in March..

     

    A failure there could bring the S & P down to once again test the 200 day MA - around the 1780 level..
    7 Apr, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    SPX right at 50-day EMA. Yes, decent support at 1840, but if that got broken in earnest, technically, there's no real support of note until all the way back to 1742 (February).
    7 Apr, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    That makes a lot of sense. So as reports come in - it's the time to start buying.

     

    Looking now, all I'm seeing as green today is EEM & a few other EMs.
    8 Apr, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (604) | Send Message
     
    My monthly:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Apr, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (604) | Send Message
     
    Dang it! Now I remember LMH telling me last month that if I created a link to spice it up so people might actually read it. A teaser of sorts. And of course I can't edit now, so I'll have to start from scratch.

     

    A wonderful title to a heavy-metal song that everyone should be listening to (preferably illegally) whilst reading a blurb about investing!

     

    Random thoughts regarding bunkers/tornado shelters.

     

    A simplified review of actively managing a 401k utilizing a momentum strategy with limited good options.

     

    A discussion of how I've fared compared to last year whilst loading up on preferred shares since last summer. Twasn't a good time for fixed income, but things have improved lately.

     

    Two cefs I'm considering buying into this Friday.
    7 Apr, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Short Gold.
    7 Apr, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Good flush here. I am buying the Nasdaq 100 futures here for a bounce; at 3492
    7 Apr, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Nasdaq attempting to base here.
    7 Apr, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Nas. comp , ($compqx) -- (4,069) oversold , but i'm wondering if the sell off will continue to test the feb low of 3970 or so..
    an observation -- stability in large cap tech, the group that people love to hate --- names like (MSFT),(INTC),(CSCO) are in the green ,,

     

    the E & p oil names i follow taking a big hit today..
    7 Apr, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Sold most 3518; + 28 points.
    7 Apr, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I think Gold has a major league selloff coming soon. Major -- like to 1000
    7 Apr, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Can't see any reason to own Gold in the present environment..

     

    (GLD) is still in a bear market..
    7 Apr, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Ten Year Treasury yield is bouncing off support; todays low 2.68 at noon 7 basis point below par.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1iF...
    7 Apr, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    potential good news.

     

    Dennis Gartman, a CNBC regular , (who has made horrendous timing calls in the past) just announced that he is 100 % out of the market.. :)
    7 Apr, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    He's one of those people that go on CNBC to try to move the market the way they want it to go. So as it goes lower, he will be buying. I don't trust Cramer either, most of the time he's pumping a stock so that he can sell it at a profit.

     

    Lately Cramer has taken to talking about DGI stocks. A strategy that he could really educate his followers on, but usually never mentions. Every time he pumps a stock, when I look at it the PE ratio is over 30 and the earnings forecast not great. Why pump a stock that isn't even at a good value to invest in? Once in awhile, I do see him make the correct call not to buy, but sadly that's a few months after he has pumped the stock. Many people lose money following Cramer. They don't research the stocks he talks about - they just "buy buy buy."

     

    Another issue I have with him is that I've never heard him mention Seeking Alpha. Maybe because he doesn't want people to go to an excellent web site & learn more about stocks than his show could ever teach you?

     

    The main reason I watch Cramer is to see what he's saying, as his words often do move a stock. Sad, but true. Plus I know what not to buy, if he's pumping it ; )
    7 Apr, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Cramer changes his tune on the overall market every other day.

     

    I'm waiting for him to say its time to get out of the nasdaq completely....

     

    last time Gartman sold out of the market completely was around S &P 1750, then he got back in around 1825. ....saying u have to be in this market -- lol

     

    a great contrarian indicator if i ever saw one..

     

    he's as wishy washy on gold also, all in , then all out
    7 Apr, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Gartman's views

     

    http://cnb.cx/1mUPEhP

     

    he's long gold, says he still believes it's a bull market but is now in cash (sold stocks last Friday).

     

    we will know soon enough if he's wrong about gold & stocks.

     

    today's trading was whipsaw….markets started to recover around 3 pm and then as we got closer to 4 pm tanked again.

     

    until we see some positive earnings come in, the market really doesn't know which way to go
    7 Apr, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    it is heartening to see some stocks going up

     

    (VALE) up 3.45% (BGS) up over 6% (IBM) up 1.43%, $2.75

     

    Reits are up too, and utilities doing fine.
    7 Apr, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Good news for my coal stocks. Finally (Jrcc) filed for bankruptcy. Gets their supply off the market.
    7 Apr, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Don't get too excited. Chapter 11 won't have nay effect on day-to-day operations:

     

    "James River said it expected mining operations and customer shipments to continue throughout the restructuring process."
    7 Apr, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    This chart tells a completely different story about the market

     

    S & P is off 2.4% from its high ,yet on an individual stock basis the average name is down 12.8%

     

    From Bespoke ; The universe used was the S & P 1500 which includes large. small & midcaps ..

     

    http://bit.ly/1mUVwaM
    7 Apr, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Interesting divergence. Guess almost everything was up around 10% more than SnP's highest %, at some point in last 52 weeks.

     

    Did supports hold or not hold? (I was traveling so I didn't see during the day...)
    8 Apr, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (842) | Send Message
     
    From Sir Templeton:

     

    "Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."

     

    It seems obvious to me that we are still in the skepticism phase. A long consolidation would bring us back to the pessimism/skepticism area which is the fuel we need for that bull.

     

    In the meantime, let's buy value stocks! :)

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    8 Apr, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey Krusty!

     

    I was wondering who would be up at this hour. Now I know :).

     

    Definitely, this bull is in skepticism and trying to find it's way back to pessimism. Definitely good to buy into!
    8 Apr, 02:44 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (842) | Send Message
     
    Hey LOMAH!

     

    We are not in the same time zone so when it is the morning here it is the middle of the night for you. :)
    8 Apr, 03:38 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Tack : you wrote earlier
    "EWZ continues to tell us that all this is much ado about nothing. Emerging markets don't go on bull rallies if market and/or economic collapses are signaled. "

     

    I think you're reading too much into the ewz strength. Brazil has elections in October and last week when commenting on the latest rate hike (their inflation is over 10%) the bank of Brazil said this would be the last rate hike ahead of the election. That caused a bout of short covering and buying.

     

    While I don't think the US will collapse, there's nothing to say em can't trade higher while the US goes more or less sideways - or even moves down a bit. Both in the topping process in the US of 07/08 and again during the late spring/summer of 2010 when the US was weak, the Bovespa traded higher. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the SPX trade to 1750 sometime during the next few months with the EEM higher than today. In fact I think that's far more likely than the SPX making new highs in the short term.
    8 Apr, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    DD:

     

    The EM rally has been more extensive than Brazil and occurring since mid-March. My only point was that money doesn't rotate into highly-vulnerable secondary markets, if the investors and traders think that some major economic and/or market swoon is in the offing for the primary markets. Also, note that Treasury yields are not plummeting, another signal.

     

    I am delighted with all the horizontal consolidation we're seeing, with the market essentially having gone nowhere for over an entire quarter, while hands get wrung and pundits pronounce tops. This is precisely the kind of action that gradually refreshes the market and reduces the need, by the day, for a deep reduction in prices. As long as "E" keeps increasing, "P/E's" won't get overextended.

     

    For income investors, especially, this market is about as near perfect as it can get.
    8 Apr, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I do think money will rotate into "highly vulnerable secondary markets" if they are beaten up enough - which they were - and near long term chart support - which they were.

     

    I did - purely on a valuation basis. While I didn't buy ewz over the past month I bought steel, coal, eem, various energy plays and other beat up stuff. The logic was that no way could the S&P eventually trade higher without stability or increases in those areas. But so far we don't know whether the rally in those areas - many of my picks are up 15% in the past month - can be sustained now that they are no longer oversold. I continue to be concerned about Chinese growth and whether the US will accelerate beyond the tepid 2.5% or so we've been seeing. I believe earnings forecasts for the next year reflect growth beyond that level.

     

    BTW - I've also been putting more money into Canadian stocks that trade on the US market believing after years of under performance the Canadian market will do better than the US. I think the Cad$ has bottomed, their stats have been better (they actually reported a positive trade deficit last month), the gov't budget is in better shape and the Finance minister said they're looking to lower taxes next year when the budget is balanced. Beside tck which I've mentioned several times, I'm long BNS, TD, CNI (for awhile but added yesterday), FXC, and EWC. I'm looking to buy SU on a correction - I missed that one.

     

    I agree with you that for income investors this market is about as perfect as it can get. But I think this utopia largely reflects the skepticism regarding the global picture. IF more become convinced the world is good and commodities start to really rally, interest rates will rise and the income plays falter. I haven't yet trimmed any of my income plays but I'm not adding to them either.
    8 Apr, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    DD:

     

    All the angst about China, that's now lasted several years, in fact, is overblown. This is an economy about which people wring hands because it's "only" growing at 8%. By the way, did you see Ford auto sales up 28% in one year, just announced today? Does that sound like a faltering economy?

     

    Canada has been fawned over as a new love child ever since the 2008 collapse, as a supposedly more prudently-managed economy. Personally, I view Canada as very static and think the upside there is limited, if it exists at all. It's still crushed by taxation and other disincentives.

     

    The current situation allows wonderful hedging by mixing a blend of high-income issues with an array of undervalued commodity and energy plays that will rally in any stronger economy.
    8 Apr, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Ford is relatively new to China so they are working off a low base. And I seem to recall something about people buying cars ahead of some tax or restriction. I don't have time to look it up now - have an appt this afternoon.

     

    If I was "wringing my hands" over China I wouldn't be long many of the items I'm now long. However, their stats lately have been lousy and I can't completely ignore that.

     

    The recent rotation could simply be the last major one before the more cyclical sectors soften into the summer, taking the S&P down to test the Feb lows. The earnings numbers over the next few weeks should tell that story.
    8 Apr, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    DD, right there with you. Other Canadian names moving up, (ECA) (PD-Tse) (BIR-TSE).

     

    These names have been -- along with coal etc -- beaten down for SO long, we could bounce 50% just on short covering in some of them.

     

    Oil and Nat gas keep working higher.....this trade looks amazing to me.
    8 Apr, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    A buy /write on (ALR)-- IMO a good stock for this type of strategy.. Stock has now retreated to support

     

    Buy @ 34.4 / sell the May 35 @ 1.35

     

    3.7% for 5 weeks or 5.3% if called

     

    I completed this same trade last month with the april series at prices around these same levels - that trade yielded 4.2% for the month..
    8 Apr, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    As I warned -- "popular" names like (GS) and (GILD) getting "smoked" on this flat day in the market -- while the "rotation names" like Coal; Natural gas and Materials -- screaming higher.
    8 Apr, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Both my coal stocks up; 8-10% today. Others strong (CLF) + 6%; (FSLR) + 5%.
    8 Apr, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Interesting info from Ritholz mgmn't

     

    http://bit.ly/R0HA2g

     

    I've written about this phenomenon before ..maybe 2014 will follow the pattern

     

    and a link that supports the secular bull story

     

    http://bit.ly/PZam24
    8 Apr, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I was an assertive buyer on the lows yesterday; right here i have been a light seller; just "taking off the excess".

     

    This is how I "trade around core positions. EG; Long (TSLA), added yesterday some at 205 -206; sold that extra 211 -214 today.
    8 Apr, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    From Schaeffer research

     

    "The put/call ratio for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) finished yesterday's session at 2.4, which is near an extreme-high level for 2014," "This is a good quantification of near-extreme fear, and previous readings around these levels have marked short-term bottoms for the S&P 500 Index (SPX)."
    8 Apr, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    Today was a great example of the quality rotation --- Coal, Natural Gas, and Materials were flying, while former, overvalued leaders like (GS) (GILD) ect got slammed. Even that quality name (MU) struggled on a strong nasdaq day.

     

    Curious if you are still long (GS) (BAC) (C), and where your stops are. Quite a fall in these names.
    8 Apr, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    M
    I'm not a trader ...i don't use stops and all are still in LT trends ...

     

    i don't get flushed out because money is now being attracted to other sectors in the short term. so I don't get whipsawed around like most traders..

     

    I'm happy with the returns on the financials, the 'fall" u mention , has come after some significant gains so the word 'fall' is realtive...
    (MU) and (GILD) are fairly new positions - hardly had the time to work themselves out over time..

     

    My time horizon is much more than a month,

     

    I'm also pretty well diversified as (NVDA) (FCX), (CTRP) just to name a few, all recorded a nice day today...

     

    so a temporary setback in a stock like (MU) or (GILD) doesn't break the bank ,

     

    BTW both of those are at break even levels, so they are no on my list to jettison just yet..

     

    8 Apr, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Just wondering what your process is on a stock like (GS), now decisively below the 200 MA. What is your sell process? Are you onside with (GS)?
    8 Apr, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    While I will look at the daily chart , the weekly and monthly chart is often telling of the true LT trend..

     

    sell triggers would be a fundamental change in the company or a change in the market backdrop I m working with..

     

    At the moment (GS) is a core position , the fundamentals are in tact. In my view the LT market backdrop has not changed and the LT trend is in place.. with an improving economy and expected M & A activity (http://bit.ly/qLHYPs) will prosper. Love them or hate them they are the best at what they do ..

     

    Therefore , while others might wish to trade their way around these drops. I choose not to get whipsawed in and out , therefore "time" the market..
    If anything the timing I wil employ is the sale of calls at the appropriate time.

     

    When u have diverse holdings , this type of action is routine.. and expected..
    8 Apr, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I think at some point (AAPL) will be an unbelievable value buy. I'd be in now but too many other irons in the fire.
    8 Apr, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    (AAPL) was a great buy when i added it at $390

     

    ;)
    8 Apr, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Joining the call of those for a major infrastructure program in the US. It's literally shameful how bad things have gotten.

     

    I think there is a place for a 10 year, 3 trillion dollar fund for airports (as a pilot my personal passion) roads, bridges, rail lines, networks, transmission lines.......

     

    And the US can afford it easily. Slash, burn and pillage entitlements to the wealthy older population. Means test it all. That's what the USA cannot afford.
    8 Apr, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    In a low-growth, not-fully-employed, low-inflation world, they don't have to "slash" anything. Just add to the economic activity. It would be a worthwhile investment, if not boondoggled to death.

     

    There's yet another bill to extend unemployment benefits, again. Why not put people to work -- in fact, insist that they work, if able -- rather than paying them to sit home? Everybody would benefit.
    8 Apr, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    My point is these entitlements do not add to economic activity. They are parasitic. I don't believe in them from a personal philosophy. I started my trading business 15 years ago with $25k, every cent to my name. No freebies!

     

    The issue is most politicians are gutless wonders unwilling to make hard choices. Not real leadership but pandering.

     

    An infrastructure program is an investment that pays productivity dividends, by comparison.

     

    Look at the amazing trains in a place like Switzerland, for example. What a great place to visit.
    8 Apr, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • DENISO
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Americans would be embarrassed to know just how inferior our airports are compared to most of Asia and Europe. Of course, no Country has as much flat concrete that airplanes can land on as the U.S. Ours were the first and best, but our infrastructure is now old, and a real chance to spend a $Trillion was wasted on Unions, favored Solar donors, and City pork, instead of needed improvements.
    Regards,
    10 Apr, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1lOWq8B

     

    Interesting China read.
    8 Apr, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Constellation Brands (STZ) reporting blow out numbers, this beer & wine company has been a real winner for me since last year. Up over $3 pre market. They sell Modelo beer, from Mexico.

     

    (BUD) has been a good stock for me too.

     

    futures are up; maybe we will see some solid gains today.
    9 Apr, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    I hope you took something off in the pre-market. I always do when a stock is up sharply ahead of the earnings call especially when a stock is very expensive, which stz was at over 20 times earnings.
    9 Apr, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Both (STZ) and (BUD) have extremely low PE ratios, good earnings expected. Keeping them both for now but may sell off 25% in the near future.
    9 Apr, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    You call a p/e of 20 for stz low? That's significantly higher than the past few years and their debt is huge. The more I look at this one the more tempted I am to short it.
    10 Apr, 03:52 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    at CNBC.com PE ratio is 9.95

     

    maybe you have more recent data but with a price target of $88 (STZ) still looks like a good stock to me

     

    I tend to hold stocks for decades….time will tell.
    10 Apr, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Put Tech shorts back on; short (QQQ) (NFLX) (AMZN) (YELP) (TSLA); keeping EM and energy long exposure.

     

    See another MOMO leg down here.
    9 Apr, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    You're keeping anr and wlt? You could be right but I wouldn't touch them with a ten foot pole. Companies in that space that have good balance sheets are having problems - those with huge debt are likely to underperform at least until coal prices reverse for the long haul. Most analysts don't expect that to happen for at least a year. And you always run the risk of bankruptcy or stock dilution.

     

    I haven't made a single trade today.
    9 Apr, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I've sold (WLT) and kept a small (ANR) position. Scratch on both. Keeping the Nat Gas names in full. I also think we get another corrective leg here. Not impressed with this bounce at all.

     

    I'm looking at steel; oil and Nat gas all rallying; thinking (hoping?) it will bleed into coal. Not happening so far -- false rallies. Coal inventories are way down; too. But tough when the street keeps pounding on these names.
    9 Apr, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Not sure what you're looking at, but the SPX chart is trending steadily higher, with no current sign of rolling over. Short-term market shorts look riskier than the market.
    9 Apr, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Coal inventories are down because of the frigid winter and above normal use of coal during the past few months - but with springtime inventories should rise again.

     

    A little more than half of tck's revenues are due to coal but they have a stellar balance sheet and pay an almost 4% dividend so at worst they will trade sideways (21-25?). Yesterday I took off 1/6 of my stock holding and sold upside calls against a portion as well. This will be a long term hold for me and if the stock ever gets back near 22 and the world isn't falling apart I'll probably add some back.

     

    Notice ewc is trading at almost 3 year highs? I just wish volume was heavier on this breakout. Makes me question it.
    9 Apr, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    High Risk of rolling over here; led by big Tech.
    9 Apr, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    You hope, but charts not indicating that, presently.
    9 Apr, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    T:

     

    Correct. Only a possibility based on the lack of leadership in the big names. Even (GOOG) is fading here. Pretty weak bounce in the banks, too.
    9 Apr, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    The best reason to be short, if any, is the FOMC minutes, which always seem to provoke volatility, no matter what they say.
    9 Apr, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I think there's another 100+ points of risk in the Nasdaq here; and since They slammed the coal and materials right back down; I'm not sure what's leading here with banks soft too. So I"m cautious somewhat here. This light volume Nasdaq rally is just asking to be sold; so I have. To see a critical stock like (AMZN) look like it is ready to roll over; after only a 10 point bounce following a 60 point drop = not healthy.
    9 Apr, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Completely out of the coal and materials; now substantially net short.
    9 Apr, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Oops. Substantially fried.
    9 Apr, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Ummmm.....WE'll see. They can only goose it so far with words..

     

    Thin markets and crush the dollar.
    9 Apr, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I'm sticking with this trade for now.
    9 Apr, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    The words i'm hearing is ----its a dead cat bounce - & many seem to disbelieve this latest move..

     

    & that might be good news in the short term if one is a LT bull

     

    S & P bounced off of its 50 day MA and held the Feb low of 1834. So the LT 'Up" trend is still in tact.

     

    & now earnings will speak ...
    9 Apr, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Looks like it was smart to disbelieve yesterday's move; wasn't it?
    10 Apr, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Not Involved with (GS) or (GILD), but they don't look healthy either...
    9 Apr, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    (NFLX) acting like it has a sure date below $300 soon.
    9 Apr, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    nice rally today (CELG) up over $9, (PCLN) up $47

     

    Earnings will drive this market higher; (AA) talked about aerospace and big trucks demand for their aluminum very strong.

     

    "don't fight the Fed"

     

    My accountant says all his small business clients are doing much better this year.

     

    bulls are running, don't get trampled
    9 Apr, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    "Earnings will drive this market higher; (AA) talked about aerospace and big trucks demand for their aluminum very strong."

     

    Like the market doesn't already know this? Look at how prices and multiples have increased in those areas over the past year. Guidance must be better than expected for the bull run to continue. Look what's been happening to companies that report good earnings but ho-hum guidance; they're getting hit hard unless their p/e's are modest and they have a decent and growing dividend.

     

    10 Apr, 04:43 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    BSK - I'm not bearish but think this market could as easily drop as rise over the next few months. Nothing in the stats or technicals yet tells me excessive optimism is warranted short term.
    10 Apr, 05:07 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    with uncertainty still abounding, i doubt you will see a lot of better than expected guidance from CEO's .

     

    What CEO is going out on the limb if they have some built in excuses to fall back on ? it isn't necessary to be a hero regarding guidance these days..

     

    Guidance has been tepid at best all throughout the earnings rebound which is now at all time highs.

     

    As far as the knee jerk reactions from the market after decent reports but tepid guidance.. it may be an opportunity has been laid at your doorstep..

     

    In my view if you do get a company that beats and raises guidance , its worth a long look .
    10 Apr, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    F&G - I'm not looking for "better than expected guidance" unless the stock is very expensive. If the p/e is reasonable, a reiteration of last quarters guidance will be enough.
    10 Apr, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    DD...doesn't seem to matter as the FED seems determined to micromanage every blip in the stock market, not doing their job on managing the economy.

     

    Anyone can see they are reacting to the risk off behavior in the stock market by the speeches and minutes. If the Fed's role is (properly) solely the economy, why the need for the aggressive jawboning?

     

    Either taper QE, or don't. But seriously Shut up with the jawboning. Leave the markets alone to trade on earnings and economic data. We'ed all be better off with a lot less Fed chatter.
    10 Apr, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    You are making far too big a deal out of yesterday.

     

    Yes, the Fed walked back from saying a rate hike will come next spring, but they will still taper as long as US economic data isn't falling apart.

     

    Frankly I'm ignoring the Fed and just focusing on the data and earnings. If it's good the market doesn't need the Fed. And if it's bad, given that the forward p/e of the S&P is 10% above the long term average, nothing the Fed can say will help ward off a decline.

     

    But I agree with you this constant Fed speak is getting tiresome.
    10 Apr, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    The market does not ignore the Fed. Quite the contrary. The market is hypersensitive to every nuance. Its difficult as a trader to deal with.

     

    In the long run you are correct of course; but it's not enjoyable to see the Fed's words goose weak, money losing stocks. The Fed is overtly encouraging speculation because of this misguided policy regarding the "wealth effect".

     

    I take offense too as I hold US dollars. The Fed is continually trying to talk down the currency. Why? Is this the great path to prosperity -- a weaker currency?

     

    I thought officially the US had a "strong dollar" policy. I don't see or hear that.
    10 Apr, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    the fed is tapering as they said they would.

     

    10 Apr, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Fine. Why the chatter that contradicts their apparent policy path?
    10 Apr, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    Nothing that was stated yesterday was new or unknown to the market..

     

    I've had this type of discussion before about the fed . I see it totally differently
    10 Apr, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Taper and raising rates are two totally different things.

     

    The Fed isn't going to raise rates, nor should they, unless they detect inflationary pressures. No amount of talk, dovish or hawkish, can have the slightest amount on impact on what the economy actually looks like in 2015, so they can blather on anyway they wish, and the market can kneejerk, like the emotional creature it is.

     

    Hey, you're a trader. You should just love the volatility that the Fed stokes up with its regular commentary. Of course, investors don't care, one way or the other.
    10 Apr, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    M - The market gets stupid on occasion and sometimes it's difficult to filter out the noise, but nothing has really changed. The taper is on unless the data starts to suck - period - end of sentence..... Getting excited over a one liner - ie - maybe rates won't go up six months after the end of the taper is truly dumb. Anybody who bought late yesterday now has a loss - except those who bucked the crowd and bought income plays - which suffered yesterday.

     

    I realize the Fed is important but anyone who pays too much attention to what they say on a day to day basis and not what they are actually doing will continue to get whipsawed.

     

    And the Fed isn't responsible for the US$. Sure I hate it when they debase it, but their mandate is only for full employment and price stability (ie, no excessive inflation or deflation). If you want to blame anyone for this crappy economy, blame our feckless leaders in Washington - they care more about protecting their jobs than those of the American public.
    10 Apr, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Disagree. The Fed is carrying the unofficial mandate of a weak dollar policy from Washington. They may not have invented it but they sure are communicating it.

     

    Look at the dollar today. How about a speech from Lockhart or Yellen, stating " we believe in and are targeting a strong dollar". You will never see it.

     

    I'm fine today because I did not cover my shorts; but I'm annoyed. It is not the job of the FED to attempt to manage stock markets. Of course if I'd play it better; I would have shorted stocks like (YELP) at 71 instead of before that ridiculous squeeze at 68.

     

    So now we are back down. Do we get ANOTHER Fed speaker telling the market it doesn't get it?? Its ridiculous, really. Shut up already FED and just do your job, and tell Congress to do theirs.
    10 Apr, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    The Fed makes its routine speeches. The market looks to parse every silly word for some supposed hidden message. This isn't the Fed's problem; it's the problem of some clever traders, coupled with a legion of boobs that respond to such nonsense.

     

    As I said, as a trader, you should hope they give a speech each day.
    10 Apr, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps. However I saw this breakdown develop yesterday. Now it looks good for me assuming we close weak, as it tells me the market has had quite enough of this noisy chatter, as I have. 30 year bonds are back at a breakout point as well. Anyway my target as always is not the SPX, but the really overvalued momentum names.

     

    I've cut risk down and covered some short exposure here. I'll wait until -- IF -- the Russel in particular breaks; and closes below the support line. For all I know they jam it right back up.
    10 Apr, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    I can see...
    When you're used to judging and trading on market & macro data... see where it gets hard to trade based on some completely random speech.

     

    The market moves a lot the speeches (for no good reason), and the Fed does speak every time they see a dip forming. It's like clockwork, in retrospect, but you can't time what day and when they'd do it.
    10 Apr, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Where's a good place to look to see how earnings are doing?

     

    SA has streaming individual, but to see the big picture that will ultimately set the general mood?
    10 Apr, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    if you are looking for a scorecard..

     

    bespoke.com

     

    factset research
    10 Apr, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    It's bespokeinvesting.com? I've never been to their site before... lots of good articles. Of course the best is (supposedly) pro-subscription.

     

    Can't find an earnings chart yet - probably because there isn't much earning yet. But this comparing US to international right now is interesting:
    http://bit.ly/1qmcL4f
    10 Apr, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    My Natural gas names look great today. Added to (CHK)
    10 Apr, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Do you expect natural gas to continue well if the dropping continues?
    10 Apr, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Well, I guess yesterday sure cleaned out the weak shorts, as there is not much of a bid today. I'm less "fried" today -- eh Tack?
    10 Apr, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Well, between yesterday and today, you're mostly running in place, but you could make nice money if the panic intensifies.
    10 Apr, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    No doubt its tricky. I would want to see a CLOSE below 1840 SPX / recent IWM lows -- to feel this is simply not more "chop".

     

    I've gone "light on my shorts; and if you factor my energy and Reit longs, I'm not even net short here. Pretty close to neutral.

     

    Happy though I didn't pile into anything or cover yesterday.
    10 Apr, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    (GILD) and biotech are really getting creamed here....
    10 Apr, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Today seems very different from previous declines. Not only are the usual suspects falling, but stuff like utilities, traditional pharma and reits, ie income plays that typically did well on the past sell offs, are down today.

     

    Tack, how are your income plays today? Are they up or just down less?
    10 Apr, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    DD:

     

    Great day, relatively, so far. Total portfolio down 0.19%. MREITs, preferred stocks and debt issues all green.
    10 Apr, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    That's great. I'm out performing today but under performed yesterday. Net/net it's a little to the good.

     

    I'm really ticked at myself, though. On yesterdays rally late I only bought some xlf puts. While they're doing well today (more than a double but just got out of half) I should have been more aggressive since I thought it was a BS rally.
    10 Apr, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Can you give an example of a few names in each that are green today? I'd like to get an idea of what type of stocks tend to be that contrary to the common stocks general market. (Get a better visual than I have.)
    10 Apr, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    A long list, all green today. Cut and pasted; sorry no parens:

     

    RLGT-A Preferred Cum
    HPT Common C-REIT
    GRH-C Preferred Cum
    RWT Common C-REIT
    BFZ ETF Muni
    HTS Common A-REIT
    OXLCO Preferred Cum
    TSLF ETF Float
    FNCTF Common Telecom
    ITUB Common Bank
    VTA ETF Float
    EBR Common Other
    FBZ ETF Equity
    RBS-Q Preferred Noncum
    CIG Common Other
    AFC Debt Sr
    NYMTP Preferred Cum
    STAR-D Preferred Cum
    AEH Preferred Cum
    PHD ETF Float
    IVR Common A-REIT
    CPE-A Preferred Cum
    ARR-B Preferred Cum
    PFL ETF Float
    MUA ETF Muni
    NZTCY Common Telecom
    RAS-C Preferred Cum
    STAR-F Preferred Cum
    NHF ETF Debt
    MS-A Preferred Float
    SAN-I Preferred Noncum
    MTGE Common A-REIT
    CMO Common A-REIT
    PUK- Preferred Cum
    BGAOY Common Telecom
    MFA Common A-REIT
    ADK-A Preferred Cum
    DMB ETF Muni
    NMA ETF Muni
    EOT ETF Muni
    RBS-S Preferred Noncum
    RBS-R Preferred Noncum
    AGNC Common A-REIT
    EFC Common A-REIT
    MHR-C Preferred Cum
    EXD ETF Debt
    ISG Debt Jr
    MUH ETF Muni
    NBG-A Preferred Noncum
    ANH Common A-REIT
    MNGPY Common Bank
    BSBR Common Bank
    TNP-C Preferred Cum
    GST-A Preferred Cum
    CYS-B Preferred Cum
    FAM ETF Debt
    HIH ETF Debt
    EAD ETF Debt
    OGZPY Common Energy/Resources
    JRO ETF Float
    AEB Preferred Float
    IND Debt Jr
    ISP Debt Jr
    MHI ETF Muni
    EVN ETF Muni
    MZF ETF Muni
    OIA ETF Muni
    DTT Preferred Noncum
    PGF ETF Preferred
    11 Apr, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    Correction:

     

    All issues labelled as "ETF," above, are actually closed-end funds, "CEF."
    11 Apr, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Well, that was fascinating. This stuff is green, while the common shares of the same stock took a blood bath... all while paying dividends that the common aren't.

     

    Also of the ones I've look up, I couldn't find them on SA. The common comes up on SA, but not the preferreds. ex: MHR-C. So what's the best place to research for prefers?

     

    On OIA CEF, SA and Google show the same closing price, but google shows green .3, and SA shows red .3 for that same price. And google is obviously correct.

     

    What is the world of dashes? I'm assuming each letter is for a different preferred IPO?? Are any letters reserved to mean anything across all stocks?

     

    Do you worry about "callable"? Seems to me if it's called, it's been profitable (on the descriptions I see)... so it's only impact is taxes & need to find another investment (not a big deal).
    11 Apr, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    Best sites:

     

    http://bit.ly/qWc98b

     

    http://bit.ly/o4ngfR

     

    http://bit.ly/I81bHK

     

    Dash and letter indicates what series of preferred. Different sites use slight variations for quotes, e.g., GST-A, GST_pA, GST.PR.A.

     

    Calls are only a risk if the issue is past the call date and it is selling at a premium to par. In such cases, the yield-to-call will be less than the indicated yield.
    11 Apr, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    ETF's have become a popular investment tool. as they sell off, the individual names within those indexes are also hammered..

     

    In the case of Biotech , corps with solid earnings are thrown away as well as the 'pretenders" .

     

    if one has a LT perspective those "contenders" that are being tossed aside may turn out to be diamonds and these "sales" are often welcomed, especially when the fundamental backdrop hasn't changed.

     

    For the traders , its a perfect opportunity to make quick money...

     

    its a matter of style and perspective..
    10 Apr, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    "solid earnings" who cares. What may be changing is the Multiple people are willing to pay. That is the danger in buying overloved; overbought stocks like (GILD).
    10 Apr, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    you have a trader mentality, I don't, and given that difference i wont enter into a debate on valuations , etc.

     

    please feel free to short (Gild) or any stock you feel is overvalued ..
    10 Apr, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    You completely miss the point. This is nothing to do with being a trader, investor or whatever. The point is company fundamentals have much less to do with investing success, than investing at the right point in the valuation cycle.

     

    Exhibit "A" is Cisco; which makes far, far more money than in 1999 /2000, is a stronger company, far better balance sheet, but 14 years later trades at a fraction of its price then.

     

    Market is a perpetual fashion show, and Biotechs have a had a long, long run. There are better deals out there.
    10 Apr, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Back in Index shorts on the IWM break.
    10 Apr, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Scratch that.

     

    I could see a bounce here....then a potential larger leg lower.
    10 Apr, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Only a guess but my feeling is that if the S&P breaks below its recent support near 1840 and has follow through it will only come next week. I don't think tomorrow's jpm/wfc earnings, even if bad, will be enough. But next week there are a very large number of companies reporting earnings, including some very important industrial and tech names.

     

    Cat, hon, ge, unp, goog, intc and ibm all report next week, mostly Wed/Thurs.
    10 Apr, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Yes -- good time to be fairly flat on a position basis, this close to earnings.
    10 Apr, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    DD:

     

    I continue to think that the traders are setting up for weather-related missed earnings and the accompanying assumption that many investors, as usual, won't put any of it in context and will sell the news. If their assessment is correct, they'll fuel the short-term frenzy, and we could see a short, steep correction.

     

    Then, just as the pundits start forecasting recessions and bear markets, the shorts will cover, and sellers will be left stranded.

     

    As far as I can surmise, the only unknown in this scenario is whether the Q1 reports play along.
    10 Apr, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    if sentiment has truly changed , then i would not be surprised to see decent or even good earnings to have no effect on the market and the sell off continue.

     

    It has happened before, most recently 2011, if in fact that does occur this year, it will be a great time to put more money to work in equities after the dust settles --- Just as it was in late '11.

     

    I think both bulls and bears are getting ahead of themselves with this recent volatility.
    In my view, there wont be a material change in the uptrend until 1740 on the S & P is decisively violated.

     

    The "go long" a couple of sectors one day, short the indexes the next make for great discussion, but is meaningless unless one is a nimble trader..
    Not a time to panic , nor a time to pull out that 'wish list"
    10 Apr, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Tack - retailers and restaurants can blame the weather - as can the rails. But the industrials? In any case I'm watching the guidance and tone in the conference calls more than Q1 earnings.
    10 Apr, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Either flat or in some cheap option spreads. Options expire next Friday and I don't think vol is elevated enough considering the importance of earnings. Individual etf's like xli or xlk may be a better bet than the spx - but spreading it around may be the best bet.
    10 Apr, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Well - so much for holding 1840!
    10 Apr, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Industrials got a little stuck too. Trains were stopped with supplies, electricity out, people couldn't get to work. Flu was bad this year & took people out. Anything with outdoor equipment needs got hampered.

     

    ... maybe the griping here about cold and snow and really is it snowing again?, passed you by :) over in sunny California (where the earth moves).
    10 Apr, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    "just as the pundits start forecasting recessions and bear markets, "

     

    So that's the clue to look for, to start buying back in... I'll keep my eyes out. It's time to get my money in and to work!

     

    (Of course I'd have to turn on the TV to hear them... and I typically don't even listen...)
    10 Apr, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Of course, this only applies if the market goes into a genuine 5+% tailspin in coming days.
    11 Apr, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    But industrials are more globally diversified. If a retailer or restaurant misses, that's to be expected. But a multi-national industrial company should not have been that affected by the weather.
    11 Apr, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Good point - when looking at the bigger geologically diverse companies...

     

    We haven't seen the earnings yet coming in for these as low and blaming weather have we?
    11 Apr, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Whole lotta ugly out there today. :/
    10 Apr, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    It sure is!

     

    Our (LINE)-(LNCO) didn't do badly for such a today... kept pace with the SnP is all :). Did you have anything green? Any thoughts on the theories batting around?
    10 Apr, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    Only one - (T). I don't really pay much attention to the theories that get presented during up/down swings. My time horizon is too far in the future to worry about / get ecstatic about big market moves.

     

    Unfortunately, my wife's 401k (the largest chunk of money we have 'invested') almost mirrors the NASDAQ. It has been cringe worthy lately. Bigger numbers elicit a bigger response, I guess.

     

    All good, though. I have at least 6 years, and as many as 21 to see things turn around.

     

    (LNCO), though... I would like to take that one back. Depending on how the remainder of the year goes, that may be my tax-loss candidate for next years taxes.
    10 Apr, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Doing some light buying here.
    10 Apr, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Long (GILD) that'll please FG 65.5
    10 Apr, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    (GILD) it sure is oversold BUT it flirted with and broke the its 50 week MA @ 66.53 ,

     

    any rebound and I may roll up my covered options by getting rid of the APr 75 (which was sold for 1.53 and are now .03 ) and selling the MAy 70 ... for $2.20
    10 Apr, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Long QQQ
    10 Apr, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Shorted some high vol puts; just a few (AMZN) (GILD)
    10 Apr, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Next support on S&P 100 day moving average? That's at 1828 today. Low so far today 1831.
    10 Apr, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (190) | Send Message
     
    Who and what is buying today?
    10 Apr, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » astarr66

     

    Did you do any buying/selling today?

     

    As this market shifts, and from comments I've read here about rotation, ... and my impression that it's a shift from early bull stage to moving to middle... I expect the more traditional, less speculative stuff to do better for a while. For a while now there's been a heavier amount of more savvy investors, and risk takers in the market. It appears to be shifting to regular people more, as last year's returns wow people as they finally notice. So I'm going to head more to traditional, boring.

     

    (Then when the bull matures, the speculative will come back again.)
    10 Apr, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Most of mine were selling puts. EG I sold the May (GILD) 67.5 puts for 4.85; Worth $1.50. Breakeven 62.65 and very small. Sold a few puts on (TSLA), (AMZN) juicy premiums.
    10 Apr, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Really wonder about that GILD strategy.

     

    If I were inclined to sell puts today against GILD, I'd have sold the May $65's for $3.60, instead. The Share price doesn't have to move an inch to grab the whole premium. With that ITM put, you're underwater $2, so that $4.85 nets out to $2.85 to the good, and to achieve the extra $1.25 in premium income over the $65 strike, the shares have to rise $2. I don't like making less than share moves when I'm in the money. Lastly, the $65 give you better downside protection.
    10 Apr, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Thats arguable; I sell puts with a 2/3 premium strategy 1/3 underlying bounce expectation. I can see a snap back to 70 for GILD, so I sold halfway. I never sell cheap puts.
    10 Apr, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I would be unlikely to make that trade unless I was a determined holder of GILD. For the quick bucks the OTM trade is the better bet, IMO, and it's hardly a "cheap" put. The ITM portion of your trade doesn't count for "premium income."

     

    I sell oodles of OTM puts, especially in panicky conditions, and I'm more than happy just to bank the premiums. I only want to be subject to no-appreciation share puts, if I am a holder, not a trader.

     

    If you've decided you're a GILD "investor," then, fine.

     

    Let's see how it works out.
    10 Apr, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Yep -- I only did a handful on 4 names. Loads of cash on the sidelines for me. Love to see true panic conditions and I'd sell quite a few more puts. Certainly in Biotech there was a bit of a freakout today.

     

    Expect at least a morning bounce tommorrow unless JPM EPS a disaster, which would shock me.
    10 Apr, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    I'm buying (lightly) BTW because I don't see a crash. Assuming we correct; I believe it will be in the fashion we've seen -- spike down; spike up; but working choppily lower.

     

    Why? Volume light again. The public is not in with long term money.

     

    Buy the dips; sell or short the rips.

     

    50% long, Sold puts on (ICPT) (GILD) (AMZN) (TSLA)
    10 Apr, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Odd session and not what I would have expected given the 2% S&P decline.

     

    Big down day but the Morgan Stanley cyclical index relative to the S&P was flat. Typically the index under performs on a big down day.

     

    Big pharma was down hard; jnj lost 2.4% and the xlv was down 3.3%. Typically it loses about half of the S&P on a big down day.

     

    Tck, vale and other miners were not as weak as one would have expected on a 2% S&P decline and the lousy overnight Chinese data.

     

    Previous big winners from 2013 and early 2014 - the tech/biotech momo stocks got whacked again big time, but stocks like goog/pcln that are not that expensive didn't trade down to the lows they made Monday.

     

    The only conclusion I can come to is participants were taking profits in banking/pharma/industr... ahead of some major earnings reports over the next week or so and there was continued liquidation of momo tech.

     

    Some major earnings reports next week include: ibm, goog, intc, jnj, cat, hon, ge - so a big DOW week. Major economic reports are largely Wed/Thurs: housing starts, industrial production and Philly Fed. Friday, April 18th, the US stock market is closed for the Good Friday holiday so monthly options expire Thursday.

     

    I didn't make a single stock trade today but made a few short term option plays, largely in sectors with that will have the heaviest reports next week and options vol is still low.
    10 Apr, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Thanks for the summary and your thoughts.

     

    Your thought that it included profit taking before earnings fits with the idea of soft from weather reports coming. Good to take profits and just buy back in after the fall out...

     

    DOW's been behind the other indices at hitting highs all year.
    10 Apr, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I meant to say - a good read :).
    10 Apr, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    the shift in sentiment that i noticed last week can't be ignored..

     

    macro's comment about what someone is now willing to pay for a specific stock is meaningful, and that goes back to 'sentiment"

     

    Good or ok news is being shuffled under the rug, and its no surprise given the gains & where the S & P is ..

     

    hence my comment earlier that good or ok earnings may also be dismissed here.

     

    so if one is hanging their hat on earnings bailing this market out --their theory might be right , but the market results may be quite different .. I'm leaning that way now .. Earnings ok, market not so much

     

    only thing i'm doing is selling calls , i have a few positions that may be called away next week, if that's the case - its more cash that can be deployed later..
    10 Apr, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    "the shift in sentiment I noticed".......

     

    Unbelievable --- you are taking credit?

     

    Ive been extremely cautious for many Weeks on this market --

     

    Been repeatedly called " a frustrated bear" "doom and Gloomer" "bearish since 2009" " and "failed strategy".

     

    Funny how that works. Do me a favour. Don't quote me in your writings, after you have trashed what I have wrote, and others that have been cautious in 2014, so often.
    10 Apr, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    noted,

     

    my views were published here -- and documented - - why not read them before you open your mouth

     

    you on the other hand have been a whirling dervish telling all how this and that sector is going to the moon , then just this morning blaming the fed cause they messed that up for you

     

    give me a break with your nonsense.

     

    i try to acknowledge one intelligent comment form you and you trash me --- move on

     

    no more comments from me if you have an issue with me take it to my blog , where i stated my opinion on sentiment and i'll gladly trash u there.

     

    those that have been cautious as you so eloquently write also have missed most of this bull run.. hence the frustrated bear ,failed strategy moniker.
    if the shoe fits wear it , many of you posts are quite indicative of just that ..
    10 Apr, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Goes both ways. Stop labelling someone who has been appropriately cautious this year a frustrated bear. Period.

     

    "missed most of the run" I was up 30% in 2013 and am up about 12 % this year.

     

    Of course you judge a legendary investor like Seth Klarman for being cautious.

     

    Today I was postive not only on my shorts, which I rode to near the lows and then covered, but my long term longs like (AGNC) and (http://bit.ly/AeGhcV).

     

    Last I heard its about results.

     

    I'll write wherever I wish. Stop negatively commenting on what I write, don't label people who don't agree with you, and there won't be an issue.
    10 Apr, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    noted and no problem , I suggest u do the same ..
    10 Apr, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Any calls on (MU) you're still considering? I'm still holding it.... and I wouldn't mind being called away :).
    10 Apr, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4695) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    I have one block of my (MU) shares covered with the 4/25 24.5 weekly,which was sold for 1.10 - it was the second time i wrote calls on that block -- that was posted on my blog..

     

    I'm not doing anything with the other block --

     

    if u want to protect look at the May 22 they are about 1.02 ..
    11 Apr, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Very, very tricky environment. I do not care if the Feds comments have no lasting effect, they are totally focused on asset prices. They won't let this go far without fighting it.

     

    I'd take odds we get much of a real selloff, taper immediately gets put on hold. I don't trust them one bit that a "substantive slowdown" would have to occur first. So shorting is fighting the Fed. Gotta be nimble. Some stocks are already down 40-50%!

     

    Shorting is so hard, its likely better with the Fed we have --- to sell puts on severely oversold momo stocks.

     

    Never mind I think the Ecb is about 2 inches from announcing their own QE program....this stuff may never go away.
    10 Apr, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Should have sold puts on Google today....higher quality names.
    10 Apr, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    M - Just be careful to check when earnings are coming out before selling puts on anything. I like goog too (don't own it yet), but it has a HUGE gap much lower and even quality like goog sometimes has a lousy earnings report. In fact last year they missed on two or three, but the market was so hyped on multiple expansion that they were dismissed. In this environment I don't think a lousy earning report will be ignored. Even with the big selloff it hasn't had that much of a correction when compared to the gains in the past 18 months.
    11 Apr, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Days like today -- are why I have been cautious for a number of weeks. If you are long the wrong stuff; you can lose 30-40% in a hurry.

     

    Simply stated; I am not especially bearish, especially the large caps, and I'm not long gold.

     

    However; we've been rallying for 5 years, and the Fed is getting out of the QE business ( we think anyway).

     

    Regardless of those who say QE has no effect; most participants believe it does, and build it into their pricing models, so tapering of QE is potentially important--- not for any real economic or earnings impact necessarily -- but for the multiple folks are willing to pay for the same earnings.

     

    If the multiple on a high tech momentum stock or Biotech drops from 40 to 30; that's -25% without any fundamental change.

     

    The other major factor; is this is a midterm election year, and there has often been weakness preceding the election. So; in short; I simply think there is absolutely no rush to put money to work; and if I was long heavy cyclical names with the action I see today -- a dramatically failed rally -- I'd be playing defense and cutting exposure on the next rally, and raising some cash to at least 30% or more.
    10 Apr, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    M - the "high tech momo stocks" that have dropped 30% or more either had p/e's exceeding 100 or their p/e's couldn't even be measured since they had no earnings. And when you have a p/e over 100 or can't measure it there's no telling where it might stop. Something like a wday or tsla could easily fall another 30% or 50%. That's why I can never own stocks of that type. I leave those to others who trust they're smart enough to get in early and know when to get out.
    11 Apr, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Midterm elections are on the horizon. Will politics start coming into play again? Politics have been almost absent for a while now. We're past the debt ceiling & sequestration. What's the possible impact topics?
    10 Apr, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    No. Politics shouldn't matter although a number of people say studies show midterm elections typically have weak summers.
    11 Apr, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Tax selling have anything to do with this?
    10 Apr, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2496) | Send Message
     
    Some are saying part of this liquidation is for taxes - that sounds like a convenient excuse to me, but if this market was good the tax selling wouldn't overwhelm the market.
    11 Apr, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    I would think anyone paying attention would have sold all along for taxes at the various "new high days."
    11 Apr, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Anyone buying this dip yet? If so what's the focus?
    10 Apr, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was out in grocery stores today. I know holidays are coming... but it was mobbed. (Later today but including before evening.)

     

    I only ran into a few people... and no road rage incidents to report... but it was hard to navigate the aisles with all the carts.
    10 Apr, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Renewed focus on uncertainty will add to the turbulence driven churn. Choppiness will effect the inevitable if not obviate ongoing separation of winners from also rans. All this driving fear that masks what is in general a strongly positive underlying trend that is obscured by superficial and yet persistent frothiness. Continued opportunities to consolidate quality on dips and systematic risk reduction.
    10 Apr, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » EA

     

    That's a good point... that coming down will help move some fear out of the market's investors... and make for a much better leg up from here on out.

     

    Any buys in particular? Or risk reduction thoughts?
    10 Apr, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    There are ongoing opportunities in transports which is typically the leader of economic recovery but make sure and do your homework.

     

    Keep an eye on S&P 500 vs Treasuries which is a proxy for most everything else.

     

    Use the barbell approach to avoiding average performers, maximizing dry powder and maintain portfolio balance via preplanned profit taking on green and cautious but persistent allocation to promising up and comers when they show up on the red side of the ledger.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hptDVw

     

    http://bit.ly/1hptGkb
    11 Apr, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . Everyone -

     

    Are there any pages you find particularly easy to see at a glance what areas of the market are getting rotated into and what's breaking down?

     

    Or see just the day to day comparison?
    10 Apr, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3619) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how helpful it is in spotting trends, but this market map is pretty neat...

     

    http://bit.ly/1qmirLm
    10 Apr, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    That is a neat map :).
    11 Apr, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    All we need is some stressful noises from any political event like Ukraine... to push this into a solid dip.

     

    Yair's idea of long term leaps on China ETF seem good...? just wait a short while more before buying them...
    10 Apr, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (539) | Send Message
     
    I have not personally checked this...

     

    but
    if the previous year didn't have a 7% correction the likelyhood of the next year not having a 7% correction is only 15%...

     

    A 7% correction puts us at 1750 which is also a major support, I'd be adding there.

     

    I think a 20% correction is extremely unlikely, where is the money going to go? All the cheap asset values China/EM have been cheap for awhile hasn't been enough of a reason to rotate massive amounts of money.

     

    Bonds?
    11 Apr, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (539) | Send Message
     
    LMH what I've been doing is selling longer term leap PUTS.

     

    It is a bullish bet, It will be profitable as long as FXI is above 32 in two years.
    11 Apr, 03:40 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    This a great opening when coming in 50% cash---love to see some real panic on the open here.

     

    Have to get the latecomers out...
    11 Apr, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    Buying a few QQQ futures - 27 points.
    11 Apr, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Buying QQQ to go up? or down?

     

    Futures were flat, but are now a lot down... Still thinking bounce up in the morning...?
    11 Apr, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    This thread getting long of tooth.
    11 Apr, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    You betcha. I ALWAYS buy into panic. Already bouncing.
    11 Apr, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12958) | Send Message
     
    Waiting to see what side of the fence the other shoe (WFC) falls on.
    11 Apr, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3747) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . Okayie Dokyie -- here's Chapter #16:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Apr, 08:01 AM Reply Like
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