Land of Milk an...'s  Instablog

Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #16 151 comments
    Apr 11, 2014 7:59 AM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #16. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments.

    Here's a link to the prior, #15: seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land...

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared!: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long IWM, DIA, SPY, MU, LINE, CVX, PSEC, TCAP.

    Additional disclosure: ...and many more...

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (151)
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  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Nice morning if you're coming in long (JPM) for that "secular bull market" story; down close to $3.00

     

    Fact is most of those saying they are " long term secular buyers" panic out on corrections, usually on the lows. As a trader I look for such "panic" moments in a stock; sector or index, trying to identify moments of maximum "emotionalism".

     

    I have underperformed in recent years in the "QE" environment, because of a lack of corrective; panic type corrective activity. Hopefully that type of market will return with much greater volatility.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1o2xAE0
    11 Apr 2014, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/173qSSQ
    11 Apr 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    You were buying long on QQQ this morning for a pop? So far indices are still down more...
    11 Apr 2014, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    If (BRK/B) keeps coming down -- would you still call it a buy?
    11 Apr 2014, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    brk is a perma buy if you aren't a trader... attempt to beat the indexs its like buying a free S&P index you will pretty much never do worst than 7%.... the lower the better no?
    11 Apr 2014, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2731) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Yair. I'm looking at the $120 area as the next place to add. We could easily see it next week as stocks tend to drift toward a strike at expiration - that's assuming further weakness in the S&P. I doubt BRKB can get down to $120 unless the S&P falls further.
    11 Apr 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I bought futures -25-28; right about here. I'll likely hold right into the cash open.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I have a buy list I'm building for the next hard bounce ; like on Fed chatter.

     

    Of course remember I'm just a "frustrated (perma) bear".
    11 Apr 2014, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    You and Fear settled that and agreed to stop poking. Let's stick to what everything's doing instead...?

     

    You're not a permabear. Fear's not going broke as a bull.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Sorry. Just having a little fun "wearing the shoe that fits"...LOL
    11 Apr 2014, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1kQlubB
    11 Apr 2014, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Ah, teasing? My niece was telling her friend not to worry about Dad's teasing. Her friend's answer "I'm not upset, I understand... I have a Dad too."
    11 Apr 2014, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    (GS) down another $2, hows that working for the secular bulls.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Apr 2014, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I thought I'd been reading your articles... but I'm behind...! Nice list. Lots of good data... Thanks :)
    11 Apr 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Tick me off; best thing would be a panic cash open.....Have 2 names I'd like to sell puts on. Won't do it on a bounce open.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Hello Everyone,

     

    Is it only me or do I feel a bear exhaustion?

     

    Back from a skepticism-optimism sentiment to skepticism.

     

    Another 10% drop would bring us back into the pessimism-skepticism territory. That would be great! :)

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    11 Apr 2014, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Krusty

     

    It's too early for me :) -- do you mean bears are giving up and it will bounce. Or bears are gaining and moving market back into skepticism?
    11 Apr 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Krusty

     

    We'll see some oversold bounces , but i think a revisit to the 1740 level may be in order.. sentiment has changed for sure..

     

    I've hard the word recession about 5 times from the media and pundits and its only 9:00 EST - LOL

     

    Bears already starting to get a bit more vocal, thats typical during any sell off --

     

    lets wait until we hear the cries of "you will give it all back" and "I told u so " before we get the buy lists together - LOL

     

    best of luck
    11 Apr 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    @LOMAH:

     

    I mean that we are not far from a bottom IMHO. But I would prefer another 10% drop in order to ''reassure'' the bears. But...not sure we'll have to go that far.

     

    F&G:

     

    Recessions? Oh my... :)

     

    Concerning the 1,740 level. ''Panic'' is already written everywhere. So, yes that would be nice to have such a drop, very nice :) but I am not sure.

     

    Some growth stocks in high growth industry like (BNNY) are in an accumulation territory IMHO.

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    11 Apr 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    K:

     

    Doubt we'll get anywhere near panic. Even 1740 (8%) is not remotely in the cards unless we have a cascade of very poor Q1 reports and bearish commentary.

     

    As usual, too, far too much money outside equities already and too many itchy fingers looking for buying opps.
    11 Apr 2014, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Hartnett: 10-15% correction not coming until this fall

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Bull markets don't end with such high cash levels and low leverage, says BAML chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett. What we're seeing now is a "hard reversal" period, with "extreme positions" being quickly eliminated.

     

    He expects to hear policy doves again make themselves heard as markets slip.

     

    The real correction, says Hartnett, comes this fall, as the Fed wraps up QE and the idea of rate hikes really begins to come into focus.
    11 Apr 2014, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Unless economy heats up and we see inflation signals, there won't be any rate hikes.
    11 Apr 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Krusty,

     

    the media is doing their job in feeding into the present environment... and yes we do need to "reassure the bears that they were of course "right " all along :)

     

    I do agree there is plenty of bloodshed in certain names and it is spilling over to the "babies" as they toss out the bathwater..

     

    I 'm basing a lot of what i'm referring to though from technical indicators i follow..

     

    maybe its wishful thinking on my part :) ,
    as u said earlier 10% drop might bring some real good opportunities
    11 Apr 2014, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Prediction:

     

    If current SPX rise crosses above 1830, this "correction" may be over, already.

     

    In any case, we're down 3.6% from the high, and absent some very crummy Q1 reports and outlooks, I doubt we get lower than 5-6%, again.
    11 Apr 2014, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    Verily, as I speak, shorts being toasted.
    11 Apr 2014, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Thats right. Or the so-called "secular bulls" panic'd.

     

    Of course I'm simply a Frustrated Bear.
    11 Apr 2014, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1kQCheC
    11 Apr 2014, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    T,
    S & P -- 1760 or so is 6.8% from the high --- so I' m not suggesting armageddon at all ...
    11 Apr 2014, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    No-body truly wants to buy when they should.

     

    Selling a few Nasdaq futures I bought this morning, +50 points
    11 Apr 2014, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    @TacK:

     

    What I said is that ''I feel'' panic is written everywhere. Again, not sure we'll have to go as far as a 10% drop for the bull to be in charge of the market...again. :)

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    11 Apr 2014, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    @F&G:

     

    The media are always doing their job...and thanks to them for doing a great job! :)

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    11 Apr 2014, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Good point LOMAH. Most people are cash awaiting the next crash.

     

    As for the interest rates the economy has to be in full swing for that to happen. We are not there yet.

     

    Krusty
    11 Apr 2014, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2731) | Send Message
     
    Only the idiots were buying higher in the S&P today. Any short with brains can see major resistance at the 1840-1845 level - the previous support. Until the market breeches that level the big shorts won't cover. A head and shoulders projection would take the market down to the 1778 level, but before that happens I have some trend line support that would come in just below 1800.
    11 Apr 2014, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    breaking below the 1840 level decisively was the trigger for me to suggest lower prices . we tested that area 3 times and the latest test there now has failed..

     

    I agree that now becomes upside resistance...

     

    We finally got a spike in the VIX today and I would like to see that spike to around the 20-21 level.
    The overall "strength" indicators i use suggest they haven't bottomed yet.. so maybe a bit more probing to the downside before the market is totally oversold..

     

    Don't want to jump too far ahead , but the 200 day MA looms large @ around 1760 , coinciding with your 1795-1800 or so support level..

     

    In my view , 1730-1740 area is THE line in the sand for the bulls..

     

    all of this is in context within the secular bull theme ,
    and we'd have to visit much lower S & P numbers for that to be broken
    :)

     

    Best of luck ...
    11 Apr 2014, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    This would have been a rallying point for the bulls -- today its brushed aside.. good news now being ignored

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    an example of the "sentiment " change

     

    We'll see how the companies that report good results are treated.. at present i'm in the camp that its brushed off ..

     

    & that's where those names can be added to a watchlist for purchase down the road..
    11 Apr 2014, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Placebo Investment Advice
    , contributor
    Comments (4017) | Send Message
     
    "As usual, too, far too much money outside equities already and too many itchy fingers looking for buying opps."

     

    So you're again suggesting that the Great Rotation from bonds to stocks is just around the bend after great 2014 performance in long bonds coupled with a severe bear market in the stocks that the retail investor follows most closely? (TSLA, FB, TWTR, LNKD, etc.)

     

    It's a shame Bernanke is no longer talking to the media. He might be saying, "Problems in the momentum stocks seem likely to be contained."
    11 Apr 2014, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    WSD,

     

    read my commentary again and see if you can put together a better reply that what u just put forth

     

    yep --- its all about the fed -- the frustrated bear has surfaced and spoken...

     

    I know -- we're all going to be led to slaughter.

     

    Have a nice weekend !
    11 Apr 2014, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    WSD:

     

    Yes, the market is down a whole 4.3% from its high and 1.3% for the year. We should all run in terror. If these conditions terrify you, you should find another avocation than investing.

     

    Money is rotating, if you bothered to notice emerging markets, energy and commodities. But, of course, you're too busy planning for life after the world ends. Anybody chasing the names you mentioned isn't an investor; they're a rookie gambler.
    11 Apr 2014, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Placebo Investment Advice
    , contributor
    Comments (4017) | Send Message
     
    "Money is rotating."

     

    Only sentiment can "rotate," not money. Long term US bonds have been receiving the most favorable sentiment in 2014:

     

    http://bit.ly/1hrg1ZK
    11 Apr 2014, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    WSD:

     

    Bonds and preferreds should be part of every balanced portfolio. Of course, they've been very happy in a flat market, especially when they were oversold in taper hysteria last year.
    11 Apr 2014, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1031) | Send Message
     
    WSD,

     

    "Only sentiment can "rotate," not money."

     

    Money goes where the sentiment goes. Sentiment changes and so do the currently preferred investments. What's your point?

     

    Throw out some investing or trading ideas that You think are worthwhile. Otherwise why are you posting here? Arguing for arguing's sake is easy enough to find on the internet.
    11 Apr 2014, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    User.

     

    I welcome WSD - onr of the best contrarian indicators out there , and has worked well all during 2013 --

     

    he has FBS -- frustrated bear syndrome --

     

    :)
    11 Apr 2014, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1031) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Hey, I'm all for someone expressing their views that stocks or whatever are the worst investment idea ever. But if that person thinks that arable farmland and canned goods are great ideas to put money in then please say so and why and get me to thinking or otherwise it's just trolling.
    11 Apr 2014, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Placebo Investment Advice
    , contributor
    Comments (4017) | Send Message
     
    F&G: You've forgotten my comment to you several months ago (in 2013) in which I mentioned the bubble brewing in many tech stocks--in particular biotech, 3D printing, social media, cloud stocks, & Tesla. You casually waved the comment off with your tedious "frustrated bear" routine.

     

    There have been lots of 30-60% downward moves in the last 2-6 months--and you missed all of it.
    12 Apr 2014, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Placebo Investment Advice
    , contributor
    Comments (4017) | Send Message
     
    In each stock sale, an equal amount of money goes from one pocket to someone else's. Talk of "rotation" is a salesman's fallacy that misleads people into imagining some big herd of people is piling into an investment (so it MUST be a good idea, right?) Often those who sell out of a sector/stock are smarter than those buying in. Late bull market IPO's are one obvious example of this fact.

     

    You want investment ideas? Based on your profile, I suggest you read Larry Swedroe articles on Seeking Alpha (& his books). You'll waste less time, improve your results, & lessen volatility.
    12 Apr 2014, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WSD

     

    In 2013 those bubbles weren't effecting anyone... except people invested in those stocks. Waving it away made sense. It's now April 2014... and Fear and others have been pointing to a likely burst (which has come) for a few weeks or month now.

     

    Please post specifics of what you recommend. User7 is right on the money -- that getting away from general negatives and into investing ideas, be it stocks, houses, or vaults of pristine comic books... is what we're here for.
    12 Apr 2014, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WSD

     

    Rotation is actually an old and respected part of a passive investing strategy. You re-balance into the under sold areas and sectors. It proveably will give you excellent results.

     

    " read Larry Swedroe articles" That's not investment ideas. That's hugely generalized. Instead tell *us* what Swedroe's ideas are that you value and how you'd apply them currently. No one's going to read articles because of someone's general statement that they're "doing it wrong."

     

    What's your goal on this blog and in SA?

     

    A few people here are trying to add foreign exposure. You're profile says it's your "area." Any ideas?
    12 Apr 2014, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Placebo Investment Advice
    , contributor
    Comments (4017) | Send Message
     
    LMM

     

    "In 2013 those bubbles weren't effecting anyone..." Bubbles never cause financial problems until they pop. Show me a link where F&G called a burst in say, Facebook. (He smugly labeled the Facebook critics "negative naybobs" when it traded at $70 in late Februrary.)

     

    Read Larry Swedroe. He's a pro asset allocator.
    12 Apr 2014, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Placebo Investment Advice
    , contributor
    Comments (4017) | Send Message
     
    Swedroe is a top-notch asset allocator and financial planner, which is what most retail (and even professional) investors could use. I think that soundbites and stock tips are not helpful for retail investors.
    12 Apr 2014, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WSD

     

    Instead of sound bites, get personal and share YOUR views of how to invest and what has worked for YOU.

     

    I'm not interested in reading Swedroe. I don't know him from Adam, and you haven't provided a single bit of info about his investing style to entice me.

     

    You, being someone I don't know, telling me to read him, someone else I don't know,... doesn't tell me anything. It's a sound bite.

     

    I know nothing about your investment strategy, nor what or how it's worked for you over the years. If you have experience, please share it. If you have questions ask them.

     

    But the vague posts aren't adding anything into my database. And User7 and others have already said that to you too.
    12 Apr 2014, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On (FB) there are good solid replies to give to your post... but I'm not going there until you start joining in with us. Otherwise, it's just arguing for arguing sake...
    12 Apr 2014, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    WSD

     

    hey u got one right-- i did miss all of the 30-60% downward moves u mentioned

     

    because i wasn't in those names :) well i am in FB but my cost on that one is 21 or so ..

     

    seems like u wish to take a sampling of a few overpriced stocks to infer they represent the overall market ..

     

    come on now -- u surely can do better than this :)

     

    the "tedious frustrated bear routine" as u call it is tedious to those that truly are 'frustrated bears" :)

     

    so if the shoe fits ....

     

    enjoy the weekend
    12 Apr 2014, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    WSD,

     

    I do own (FB)

     

    my cost is 21 and change -- it's what i call my "lottery ticket" holding--- & its documented here in "my instablog portfolio" if u care to take a look :)
    12 Apr 2014, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1031) | Send Message
     
    WSD,

     

    I do read Swedroe from time to time. MPT indexing is fine. My volatility is just fine so far this year because I do have fixed income investments. And some of my own picks are doing fine as well.

     

    Again, what do YOU think is worthwhile to invest in?
    12 Apr 2014, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    @LOMAH

     

    ''that getting away from general negatives and into investing ideas, be it stocks, houses, or vaults of pristine comic books... is what we're here for.''

     

    Really? :) Well...I have some suggestions for you! It is not in housing, stocks, gold or comic books but these are investments that you may easily get 100% return by 2015.

     

    I will respect SA's mission so won't post anything on here but if anyone is interested, shoot me a message and I will be happy to help. :)
    12 Apr 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    @F&G

     

    (FB) at 21 is a master move! :)

     

    And...a great lottery ticket! ;)

     

    Congrats on that one. Impeccable timing.

     

    ps: I am lurking (AMZN). What are your thoughts? Timing seems good to start accumulating the stock with a long term view (traded that one...a lot in the past from 280 to 360). Kindle, Fire, Fire TV, Amazon Fresh, AWS, the Fire phone soon, Amazon Supply, Amazon Game Studio etc. 2015 P/S close to 1.5

     

    Tempting...

     

    Krusty
    12 Apr 2014, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Krusty

     

    (AMZN) is one i could never figure out , and the times i played around with it , i didnt make $ ..

     

    So for me , its a technical call, it s broken down on both the daily and also the weekly charts , and appears to be in "no mans" land

     

    the "monthly chart shows support right around 300 ..

     

    You might get a better price down the road as i believe the selling in these names isn't over..
    12 Apr 2014, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . User7

     

    What is MPT indexing?
    12 Apr 2014, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1031) | Send Message
     
    Jack Bogle type indexing mixed with modern portfolio theory ideas about allocations and rebalancing. I may very well be butchering the technical terms for it.
    12 Apr 2014, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    @F&G

     

    Thanks for your point of view. Much appreciated.

     

    However, I believe that we are now transitioning from the old to the new (AMZN).

     

    The one that is able to compete against Paypal, Walmart, Netflix, Apple, Home Depot, Staples and the US groceries. Also the one that will soon compete against Fedex, UPS, Zynga and Electronic Arts.

     

    A real war machine.
    Cheers!
    Krusty
    12 Apr 2014, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Short Silver on the hot PPI number
    11 Apr 2014, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Hot PPI might be an issue here. Only trading long side my EX- energy names for a bounce.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    PPI's not out on SA streaming yet?
    11 Apr 2014, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Be buying a biotech name I already sold puts on yesterday, positive news just out. hint not (GILD)
    11 Apr 2014, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (3644) | Send Message
     
    Profit taking and mattress stuffing at tax time. Buying opportunities while winners are busy at the tellers window filling out forms and collecting their discount coupons while accumulating credits for their next visit.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have thoughts on (NUS) its a screaming buy on valuation, but... mlm?
    11 Apr 2014, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2731) | Send Message
     
    It looks great on valuation but there's too much controversy and litigation surrounding this stock. Options are expensive but buying a call spread in the January contract - perhaps the 100/130 - has a decent risk/reward with limited risk and gives plenty of time for it to work. If you have the stomach you could even sell the Jan 50 put and reduce the cost much further. Vol for that contract is 62 today.
    11 Apr 2014, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I am Long (HLF) and short puts, well onside. I think the shorts are wrong; and will pay dearly.
    11 Apr 2014, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    Long NUS. China growth full steam ahead. Troubles behind it there. Just got a slap in the wrist with a little fine. Great earnings growth. Up 120% since purchase. Holding for now.
    11 Apr 2014, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    & sometimes the shorts get the story right

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    & some traders get smoked..
    11 Apr 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Trimming a little QQQ's for +28 points.

     

    Fabulous open, added some longs in the first 5 minutes; ripping higher (DDD) (TSLA) (ICPT)
    11 Apr 2014, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    (AEO) at 7-8 looks like a screaming buy will it get there?

     

    That balance sheet makes it tempting even at current prices
    11 Apr 2014, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Timely info

     

    http://bit.ly/1dE7yhS
    11 Apr 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Long (FB); (FSLR)
    11 Apr 2014, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Frustrated bear.....is buying like mad here. Added size to (GILD)
    11 Apr 2014, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Second dip was good, added size to QQQ longs; made higher lows. Exploding higher.

     

    80% long
    11 Apr 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Just Re- loaded on the long side in QQQ's as the panic builds.
    11 Apr 2014, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Capitulation feel here on the nasdaq.
    11 Apr 2014, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    I am looking at (CTCM). Russian Media. Co. Yielding 7.31%, near 52 week low, should not be affected by sanctions. Opinion?
    11 Apr 2014, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    Don't have any specific comments, but, generally, in markets like Russia, I like to invest in companies that export something for hard currencies.
    11 Apr 2014, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Just bought (KKD).

     

    Great product and great management. -35% since its 52 weeks high. That's what we could call a healthy correction.

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    11 Apr 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Krusty.

     

    IF my memory is correct , u have played this one before.

     

    I'm beginning to think u like the doughnuts and could care less about the stock :)

     

    good luck with the position ..
    11 Apr 2014, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    You are right F&G I bought that one last year for a short term trade at $16. But right now, it is for a long term investment. The company is better and the price is almost the same! :)

     

    You are right...I love their doughnuts!! But I also care for the stock! :)
    11 Apr 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4372) | Send Message
     
    If I was a gambling man (I'm not), I'd dabble a bit into (HLF) here. Wish I had the luxury of having "place a bet" money...
    11 Apr 2014, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Jbt.

     

    60 and change at 12 noon -- closes @ 51 & change -- a debacle for sure

     

    why not wait for the dust to settle, let the longs capitulate and take their lumps.. before u revisit this one

     

    ;)
    11 Apr 2014, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4372) | Send Message
     
    F&G,

     

    Oh, I understand that - I'd watch it like a hawk before I pulled the trigger. Big chunks down like this always catch my eye... (HLF) seems like another (AVP) to me. I don't think it's going anywhere.
    11 Apr 2014, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    FG would rather wait until the FTC clears them, then pay $90.

     

    That's why I bought some stock today like (GILD) instead of riding down a selloff, and of course did'nt get fried on financials like (GS) and (JPM) that have warned of weakness for quite a while.

     

    To each his own sir. I buy histeria, every time.

     

    Funny this is released on a Friday afternoon when weekly options expire, and apparently they have been looking into the company for months and have nothing to report.

     

    Oh well. It's 52 now, I'm in at 54-55. Think I'll survive thanks.

     

    This is a huge poker game, I think the longs are long gone and everyone and their brother is short the stock.

     

    I think, and the evidence supports it, that they are wrong.
    11 Apr 2014, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    sure u are ... :) .. it was 61 @ noon time of your post...
    wanna pull up the hourly chart ??

     

    http://bit.ly/1hrHri3

     

    give us a break -- please !!

     

    better yet - i'm just gonna ignore --

     

    case closed -failed to pass the credibility test..

     

    as i said before credibility is earned --
    11 Apr 2014, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    It always helps to be honest, not blow smoke, especially when you've been caught with your pants down.

     

    "Oh well. It's 52 now, I'm in at 54-55. Think I'll survive thanks."

     

    Really? Here's your post from 12:54PM:

     

    "I am Long (HLF) and short puts, well onside. I think the shorts are wrong; and will pay dearly."

     

    At 12:54PM HLF was $60.70. The last time it was in the $54's was March 27th. Are you now telling us that the position you held was initiated last March 27th? Certainly, given your real-time reports of your trading prowess, we'd have heard about this long before today.

     

    Why not just own up and admit you got sliced and diced on that one? We all make boo-boos. I sold $5 puts in FNMA the day before Obama took it over and it went to 30 cents a share from $8. You'd be a lot more credible, if you did.
    11 Apr 2014, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    T,
    and that's all anyone asks for here-- All of us have made many mistakes --

     

    I respect those that step up.. anyone else is simply dismissed..

     

    11 Apr 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    I'll only say this once: I didnt enter that position today. Believe it or not, I actually hold long term positions.
    I also didn't enter my longs in (AGNC) (ECA) (CHK) (MBT) and a few Canadian names today either.

     

    You want to call me out on that too?
    11 Apr 2014, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Don't want to beat this to death, but maybe if specific trades are going to be touted, then it's important to provide a better audit trail. Otherwise, we should just talk strategic generalities. Getting very specific, but leaving out full disclosure just creates the impression that facts are manufactured to suit the results.

     

    You have made some good moves and a few uh-oh's, as we all do. It's just that, as a trader, yours usually show up a lot faster.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Tack.

     

    It's one thing to post buying GILD today at 65, or AGNC when I bought it months ago.

     

    (HLF) is obviously controversial with binary risk. It's not a trade I'd want less experienced investors to follow me on, because of potential events like today's. It's not a stock, it's a battleground.

     

    I've made tons of mistakes.

     

    Perhaps I'll stick to generalities.

     

    Here FG this is for you.

     

    While you were talking everyone into not buying anything, since this dip scares you, I was buying actively. Finished 90% LONG. Expect a bounce, soon.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Should I provide the links on my qqq's trades?

     

    Sorry to all for losing my patience here.

     

    I don't like getting called out when I post in real time.

     

    Generalities only.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Macro

     

    your quote-- want the link ?

     

    "Fundamentally; today's reports for example are what you do not want to see. Higher import prices with slowing growth. I do not believe, as the bulls do, the worst industrial production numbers since 2009 can be solely attributed to a lot of snow. If the market chooses to, now, thats fine. I will patiently wait. The Yen and gold continue to flash warning signals about the underlying health of this bull market, along with financials, small caps, and transports. Ignore these trends at ones peril.

     

    I am short and positioning for a cyclical bear market as the Fed continues to pull back from accomodation, and fiscal policy remains contractionary in both North America and Asia. I recommend a heavy cash position with exposure to dividend paying, defensive sectors.

     

    "positioning for a cyclical bear market"

     

    a frustrated bear quote if there ever was one

     

    I'll gladly post the link to that statement..

     

    the nightmare only gets worse
    11 Apr 2014, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    T
    i had a great day today bought (SPY) @ 11:00 @ 182, sold it @ 183.40 @ 12:00 , bought it back @ 181.31, the low for the day - then sold it @ 182.21

     

    don't believe it ?-- just check the hourly charts its all there -- what a day :)

     

    & i did this with many individual names also - just too many to mention here :)

     

    a down day for many -- but not for me :)
    wow what a day !!
    11 Apr 2014, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    NightMare? You are funny. I'm up about 12% this year.

     

    I'd likely be better off this year if I stuck with the positions I recommended in that quote.
    11 Apr 2014, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Yes, that's correct. Been in that stock since the end of march, early April. There are a few trades and it has been mainly short in the money puts. Average to be fair might be closer to 56, not more than that. Not sure as there a couple of different strikes.

     

    Today after the news I bought stock outright at 54.50.

     

    It's a longer term trade, and certainly unusual, so I've avoided posting on it, as its not one I'd recommend to others.

     

    I take tons of losses, and got fried regardless today on meaningless news -- IMHO anyway. So what? I haven't posted much either on my longer term energy stuff either, but I'm well ahead on those.

     

    My credibility with any of you is meaningless. I could'nt care less if anyone believes a word I write.
    11 Apr 2014, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    "My credibility with any of you is meaningless. I could'nt care less if anyone believes a word I write."

     

    I certainly wont ,, once again for the record ..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    now move on

     

    11 Apr 2014, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Why don't you post your own trades in real time, instead of making up fantasy after the fact.

     

    Tell you what all. I posted a ton of trades lately and have been real clear to help the blog by giving a picture how I do things.

     

    No more live posts.

     

    I don't need this crap from some loser. You've cost people who follow you enough money.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4372) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    He does post his trades in his blog... Have you read through it? He posts the link to it from time to time.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, with prices in real time?
    11 Apr 2014, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    they are all there for everyone to see
    11 Apr 2014, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    I'm not done with u just yet,,

     

    no more "live posts" because u have been busted

     

    explain this post with this date stamp or move on
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I'm a loser -- ?

     

    move on
    11 Apr 2014, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Did you get the part "well onside"

     

    That's because like a number of my positions, I did not enter it TODAY.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4372) | Send Message
     
    I did not intend to provide fuel for the fire...

     

    That said, does anyone ever invest in names that are thrown on the pyre for whatever reason, just to catch a bounce?

     

    I'm not well-off enough to do it with real money, but I made some virtual gains off of (APC) when it did the (HLF) dance.

     

    I'll pretend, and say I'm in for 100 shares @ $51.48 as a short-to-medium term trade. Time horizon - less than 3 months. Goal - 10% gain.
    11 Apr 2014, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I did it successfully with (RAD) but got skittish and sold too soon. Also with (FMNA) to catch a bounce on news (or FMCC) Fannie May did well, but that was a day trade.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4372) | Send Message
     
    I'll exit my fictional trade today @ $60.74. 18% gain in a shade over a month. I may start setting aside some play money to attempt real life trades like this in the future.
    13 May 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    JBT

     

    no problem -- its called "busted" for those that wish to call others 'out" while they "spin" tales ...

     

    ;)
    11 Apr 2014, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    You want it to even, give us all your cost basis on GS, JPM, ect.

     

    You never take a loss?

     

    Loser troll.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    GS 159

     

    JPM 35

     

    U want to call me out -- get lost

     

    Move on - u have been busted

     

    Typical loser trader - all of the trades are doing great , yea right..

     

    I tried to make this amicable -- u deiced to make it something else now when your hand is caught ion the cookie jar u get all huffy .. get lost

     

    move on

     

    11 Apr 2014, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    a troll ,

     

    post anything here on SA and i'll expose u for what u are - that (HLF) post will haunt u unless u fess up my friend

     

    i saw that u posted elsewhere that u bought in at 51.50 -- laughable

     

    get lost
    11 Apr 2014, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4372) | Send Message
     
    lol. I won't ask questions here anymore. :)
    11 Apr 2014, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Link to the buys on GS and JPM.

     

    I bought another 1000 shares HLF at 51.50 tonight in the aftermarket, then dumped them.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    You are such a joke. You have the gall to call me a frustrated bear for being worried about the momentum stocks.

     

    Now today we puke it up, you get run over, tell everyone not to buy, after being such a secular bull.

     

    Move on.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    sure u did

     

    I bought (JPM) @ 54.60 today an sold it at the close @ 55.30

     

    get lost
    11 Apr 2014, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    JBT
    u r welcome here anytime ;)

     

    a true upstanding gentleman

     

    I have no use for those that spin tall tales.. then decide to call others 'out"
    11 Apr 2014, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Run over -- !! :)

     

    http://bit.ly/1hzmRNN
    11 Apr 2014, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Your question certainly wasn't the start of anything, lol.

     

    I like you're questions :). Always good ones!!
    11 Apr 2014, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Fear's saying there's very likely more downside, and wait to buy. I tend to agree. Why are you thinking the dip is over?
    11 Apr 2014, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    It depends on your time period, to be fair.

     

    I think we could see a hard bounce in some of the higher quality high beta stocks at least.

     

    That's how I'm positoned with part of my portfolio.

     

    Longer term, Im not sure right now.
    11 Apr 2014, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Shorted the May 60's and 65's, both for $8. So breakevens are 51 and 57, avg 53.50, plus a little stock at avg 57 or so.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    FG sounds like a frustrated bull.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oy! My 2 cents --

     

    Macro -
    a bunch of us enjoy your live posts. I may want to trade with a small amount of funds in the future. It's interesting to see. Plus you give some market insights & thoughts.

     

    Macro hasn't been called out. There's no proof that he did buy earlier. But no proof that he didn't. As Tack said... Macro you want to post your trades (maybe on your own blog)... that can aid credibility if you're inclined.

     

    Fear
    - Is not a loser, and has been very generous and helpful to a bunch of us. I'd be stuck back in "frozen" if it wasn't for him. My best stock is from his suggestion, and it's held up to bad news yesterday (CVX).

     

    Fear
    has been posting his moves for a while now -- precisely because a lot of SA users are talk not action... and he wanted to have visible credibility.

     

    So no one's a frustrated bear and Macro... Fear had stopped going down that road... really! He did agree that it wasn't a good way to go.
    ----

     

    What seems to get lost in all of this ... is that everyone here as relatively similar views. There isn't any doom and gloomer (except new arrival WSD). Everyone's been saying market is at a "caution" point.

     

    Whether each of us is timing the day to day of this cycle exactly... well that's tough to do. We've all been close. Even me!! (Gotta plug for myself :) )

     

    A lot of the battling seems to be trading vs long term approaches.

     

    I don't get it. But don't you gain anything from each other's posts? Even if it simply clarifies your own thoughts for you?

     

    Well, I'm going back to baking. Please don't punch too hard while I'm gone. ...no nose bleeds please :).
    11 Apr 2014, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Fine.

     

    For me I'll cool it down ---rather than post links to my comments about stocks like (GS), that I was cautious about 10 points higher, where I was called a frustrated bear and called out on my $2.00 loss trying to short it....
    11 Apr 2014, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I thought the last day buying was mood changing, till I realized it was options expiration (even though Dancing did point it out early in the day!!).

     

    So mood was same at end of day. What's the expectations for Monday?... or next week's news?
    11 Apr 2014, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4372) | Send Message
     
    I'll telegraph my moves for next week - adding to (XOM) and (LMT), div reinvest in (PM). Don't know what prices I will get, and don't care. :)
    11 Apr 2014, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    Div reinvest in (MO) on Friday, didn't receive the (PM) dividend yet in my TD account, I guess it will show up Monday. Opened a small 1/4 position in (KO) on 4/8 at $38.70 as part of the DGI portion. Sold $15 covered call on NRF on 4/10 at $0.49. A foray into options.

     

    Was only able to check on the markets intermittently mid to end of the week. Portfolio was all over the place depending on the time and day I checked. Biggest surprise was seeing (MCD) close up approximate 1.5% on Thursday (I think it was Thursday). It was one of the very few I had green that day.
    12 Apr 2014, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Sounds like a good plan :). Any reasons you picked them over other DGIs? My plan is to spend some time tomorrow (between baking) to work on my watch list.

     

    The macaroons were a hit in "testing"... so I need another batch because this one is gone.

     

    Dean (DF) as Whitewave sells Silk soy/almond/etc milk. Website has these great recipes, easy to find which you want, great write ups & photos, gluten, vegan... and taste great. I'll be buying more of their product all because of it.

     

    I was hoping stock would be worthwhile... but quick look, it's dependent on milk prices which are going down, and (WMT) for 22% of business. 1.8% last year, but last time was 2007.
    11 Apr 2014, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4372) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Very technical :) - I hold both through CShare. There are no fees to make monthly (bi-monthly, in my case) investments. That, and they are both the best at what they do in their fields. Neither has ever missed sending me my 'paycheck'.
    12 Apr 2014, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    " I continue to believe the scenario I laid out back in August of 2013 will continue to play out and as such believe the financial, technology, consumer discretionary, and cyclical sectors will outperform.

     

    (BAC), (C), (JPM), are all large cap banks that are still undervalued at these levels, and can be bought..... (GS), (LAZ) are my two selections in the investment banking world"

     

    Written March 23rd by Fear and Greed.

     

    Since these comments -- part of a blog taking personal shots at anyone remotely cautious these days, of course---

     

    GS, BAC, C, JPM, MU are all down about 10%, and close to double that from 52 week highs. GS, which the author touts, is down $30 from early January, threatening the lows of last summer.

     

    I remember getting absolutely trashed by the author when I simply expressed polite concern about tactical weakness in (GS) and other financials. I was labelled a "frustrated bear" "doom and gloomer" ect.

     

    What's wrong with expressing cautiousness? Is this not allowed?

     

    Anyone who follows me knows I will go agressively long at the right price. I did it Friday, even on a couple of momentum names, because I think it's gone a little too far for the moment. eg, (DDD) the leading 3 D printer maker, is down over 50% and released postive order news. High risk, but it is the leader and the sector has been washed out. So I'm long at 48.

     

    I am not a doom and gloomer, hiding behind gold bars. I am actually looking to short gold, as I did (a lot) last year.

     

    I'm also secularly invested in energy, as I see a long bull market developing in natural gas and related names, that is just getting started. I am very bullish on America and its long term prospects.

     

    It's one thing to be cautious on the current state of the market and it's valuation, does not mean I am bearish on the country.

     

    I think being somewhat cautious on the momentum stocks, which was a accurate call seeing as many are down 50%, and somewhat on the market in the short term with the digestion of unwinding of QE, is far from being a doom and gloomer.

     

    Perhaps some 2-way discussions should be more welcomed. Otherwise those that follow the bulls blindly will ride the next bear market down. We will have another one, someday.

     

    Good luck to all investors.
    12 Apr 2014, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I stand by those comments and don't pretend that they weren't made or try to hide anything , that is why the blog is there ,

     

    its my scorecard to see how i am doing over time.

     

    and that is precisely the difference here - TIME.

     

    those statement are made in the context of a LT view of the markets - and its stated there repeatedly.. contrary to what u believe im not selling or promoting trading info here...

     

    lets see where those names are 9- 12 months from now

     

    Targets are posted in the portfolio section of the instablog as a guide for investors .. I also own any stock that i mention here - u can believe that or not ,, the few select clients i have know that for fact..

     

    BTW off the top of my head (BAC) has tgt of 20 . (C) 55 or so and (JPM) 65-70 not sure if i put a Target on (GS)

     

    They were all mentioned again as selections i liked back in Dec as i made picks for '14 ....

     

    of course u wont mention a stock like (CTRP) or energy names that are up considerably .. or a quality issue like (XOM) that i picked up in the low 80's ...its there and documented , nor do u mention the call writing portfolio that has some pretty nice gains since inception.

     

    but that 's ok.. the blog is for my use anyway .. a report card so to speak for me to evaluate over time..

     

    Only thing i will add now is that your statement where u said u were preparing for a cyclical bear market was this year.. i believe it was Feb ..

     

    anyway ----good luck to you ..
    12 Apr 2014, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I don't know (XOM) or (CTRP), so can't comment intelligently.

     

    All I did was express caution. You chose to apply personal labels to me based on a tactical disagreement. That was not necessary.

     

    You are also omitting from my Feb comments; that my comments were Basis Russell 2000,(IWM) Not SPX. I stand by that call, in that a cyclical bear is -- possible -- in that index. That is commonly defined as a 20% decline from the highs, we are almost halfway there. I don't know, if it will happen or when. My comments then, and now, are for caution in the highest beta sectors of the market for long term investors.

     

    It really depends, as I have commented and stand by, the current aggressiveness of policy accommodation in the US, Europe and Asia. This may not prevent corrective behavior, but can delay it.

     

    I write a lot of puts for income too, and almost never blog about them. I did some Friday as the Vol spiked. I actually sold -- small some Thursday on (AMZN) --- they are in a loss position currently. Thats fine, I would take the stock if assigned.
    12 Apr 2014, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    M,
    Come on ;

     

    I do not believe that when you made reference to the worst industrial numbers since 2009 you were referring to the (RUT) . and other comments here don't suggest the (RUT) either..
    12 Apr 2014, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I have repeatedly commented in my feed, I am not particularly bearish on the (SPX), and have specifically commented on the overvaluation of the (IWM) and its components as the focus of my caution / and or short side trading activities.

     

    The market is down since those comments anyway --

     

    I don't believe in recent history, I have referenced shorting the SPX, any "high quality blue chips" -- (GS) and (C) excepted -- if they are to be called that.

     

    MOVE ON with your critiques and personal attacks. Post your thoughts; I'll post mine, and lets leave it at that.
    12 Apr 2014, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    HERE IS MY COMMENTARY FROM SAT APRIL 5TH. Notice the reference to my (HLF) long. 4TH Paragraph. Closed that day, 57.15

     

    Thank you all who stated or insinuated I am a liar.

     

    Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #14 [View instapost]
    A bit of commentary on my "style". On the long side, it's a little bit of a hybrid. On the conservative side, I hold 3 yield plays,

     

    (http://bit.ly/QhqFrm) (http://bit.ly/zgclHA) and (http://bit.ly/1q6iuJf). All three pay great yields, and I am well ahead. No plans to sell these, as I think they are all very cheap. I also hold 2 EM ETF's.

     

    Now for the agressive side. I believe there is a time you can swing for the fences, and because I don't need any dividend income, I can afford to do so.

     

    """First long is controversial -- (http://bit.ly/RGdvEj). I believe a fairly dire scenario is priced into this stock, so I am long it and way out of the money calls -- plus each month I sell expensive puts. I think the FTC will slap them hard on the wrist, and the stock will go nuts."""

     

    Second is coal, well talked about. Nothing is more hated, but still needed for decades by the world economy. I'm long 2 names practically priced for bankruptcy. I see a huge comeback alongside Natural Gas as the economy ( hopefully ) accelerates, and we have a hot summer and another cold winter. Fortunes could be made here. I really believe almost every negative under the sun is priced in -- and there are at least 3 potential catalysts that could cause an upside explosion. One happening would be enough.

     

    I am also long (http://bit.ly/AeGhcV) which is restructuring alongside massive insider buying, a Canadian Nat gas producer, and a Canadian driller, ( which will benefit from the pipeline that will be approved).

     

    These stocks are right now ignored, but breaking out from multi - year bases. Rounding out energy is a mid sized uranium producer, (http://bit.ly/Omud3G), which will benefit from Japans return to nuclear. Again very cheap.

     

    These are all longer term investments.

     

    In the trading category would be (http://bit.ly/cANO8m), which I am already well postive this year trading it. (http://bit.ly/cANO8m) began to rally hard this week out of its consolidation base, and refused to give much ground Friday until quite late in the day. Very powerful action. Any SnapBack (http://bit.ly/cANO8m) will likely lead. On Fridays action I sold expensive puts as the crowd panicked for volatility protection.

     

    My puts expire prior to earnings, and I expect the stock to rally or at least churn up to earnings -- which would still work out.

     

    Back to energy -- notice Oil quietly up to 101. We might see, with any economic strength, $120 oil and a lot of attention will come back to this sector. Notice too -- Nat Gas holding over $4.50, during a very weak seasonal period. Imagine if we have a hot summer, another cold winter. Inventories are way down. If you don't like (http://bit.ly/AeGhcV), (http://bit.ly/qE9p9j) is an excellent blue chip name here.

     

    Best to all this coming week.
    12 Apr 2014, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    POSTED FROM WHEN I STARTED ENTERING the STOCK, VIA SHORT PUTS. CLOSE THAT DAY 55.65

     

    THANKS AGAIN. I DO NOT APPRECIATE BEING CALLED A LIAR.

     

    Watch Me Shoot Down Robert Weinstein's One Dimensional Herbalife Bull Thesis [View instapost]
    I disagree, and I am """"long the stock"""".
    Mar 28 08:00 AM | 0 Likes Like |Report Abuse |Link to Comment
    Tying Together The Herbalife Pyramid Case [View article]
    Tough for me to see a pyramid.

     

    There is clearly a real product in play that is sold and consumed. The law is not going to guarantee to any franchise owner a profitable outcome, even in the nanny state.

     

    Few succeed at any business by definition. Profitability and price of the product are irrelevant to the argument. If the FTC shut down Herbalife, they would be rife with lawsuits from failed Subway franchisees and many others due to promises made about the profitability of a territory. I dont see anything more than a fine and slap on the wrist. ""Long HLF"".
    12 Apr 2014, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    Funny how u chose not to mention that , in reply to my comment which simply said :

     

    "sometimes the shorts get it right and sometimes traders get smoked "

     

    & that's all that was said.

     

    instead u went off.

     

    I will add your initial (HLF) post was stated EXACTLY the way u POSTED ALL OF YOU OTHER TRADES SHOWING WHAT U BOUGHT OR SHORTED AT THE TIME U MADE THE TRADE.

     

    That ends my dialogue with you on any topic here on SA.

     

    Best of Luck
    12 Apr 2014, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Your post from March 28th does appear to substantiate your claim of being long previously. A lot of confusion would have been avoided if you had provided better detail in your moment-to-moment commentary, but suffice it to say the facts now appear to support your claim of prior holding.

     

    That makes my original challenge more accusatory than it should have been.
    12 Apr 2014, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    That's appreciated. I have nothing to gain from self promotion. It's the principle of it.
    12 Apr 2014, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Its sad that simply expressing cautiousness on one stock like (GS), where I spotted developing technical weakness in the sector, results in personal attacks and labels". Same with (MU) -- why the attacks for expressing caution on a name that has run up 300+ % in a year, with notorious earnings volatility?

     

    We are clearly in a corrective phase. My long buys on Friday are what could be called "counter - trend trades". When selling hits a market -- and clearly it's awfully difficult to tell when that occurs, as I sure have not made much money short even the momentum names --- sometimes it quickly gets overdone.

     

    On a hard bounce; I would quickly be a seller of the high beta names I've bought, raising cash. I do respect (GILD) as the blue chip name of the biotechs, and may keep a very small position after the bounce. The stock was very - relatively - strong on Friday.

     

    I plan to keep my energy exposure, names like (CHK) (ECA) (CA-BIR) and (CA-POU) Check out a long term chart of these -- consider the impact of colder winters combined with developing Natural Gas exports to come. I may also keep a small position in (FSLR), as this name goes with my energy theme.

     

    I'm also bullish on housing long term, and plan to keep names like (AGNC) for the long term. I would look at (NRF) too, they have a spin-off coming -- when the market climate improves.

     

    Long term I am bullish on the US economy -- Capex has to come back one day --- but that is a different statement than being wildly bullish in the spring of 2014 on the stock market, with mid-terms looming and QE winding down.

     

    Not terribly bearish either -- but cautious for the next 6 -9 months.
    12 Apr 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, allow me to add a couple general observations, strategically, about the market and strategies to employ vis various issues and sectors:

     

    The market is likely to continue choppy for a significant length of time unless we see a surge in economic growth and credit formation. Market P/E's, while not excessive, have limited room for expansion, so whatever growth there is is more likely to be driven by "E," rather than expanding P/E's.

     

    Consequently, the constantly-forecasted upward pressure on interest rates is likely to be more muted than anticipated, as we've seen to some degree, already. Interest rates will be driven exclusively by economic growth and will not be driven by QE tapering, at all. With massive excess reserves, the absence of further QE is a non-event.

     

    In such a market, a portfolio balanced between income and growth is likely to outperform a portfolio more directed toward growth issues, especially the "go-go" or "mo-mo" issues. And added benefit of more balance is that such a portfolio will be much more resistant to any downturns. Yes, if growth takes off, a more conservative allocation, while still rising, will underperform a growth-oriented allocation, but that's the price for balance.

     

    Personally, reading many comments about buying dips in individual "mo-mo" names that have had banner moves in 2013, I question whether this is the right play. These issues rose to levels that were clearly well extended beyond any sensible value equation, and it's no surprise that they have suffered brisk sell-offs. But, now, those issues have mostly come back toward or to sensible valuations, not obviously undervalued status. For them to surge back up would require a resumption of momentum buying mania or for the economy to suddenly accelerate its growth rate (see above). Personally, I think that episode is over.

     

    The better allocation of resources, as always, is to the sectors and names that aren't simply slightly off exaggerated highs, but are selling way, way off previous highs and have remained unloved for the last couple years. This suggests emerging market, energy, commodities and select industrials. We're already seeing money moving this way since mid-March.

     

    Also, many of the names here, due to their nature and even more to depressed prices, play very sizable yields. They're not nearly as exciting as the go-go techs, but that's where the money is to be made. The turtle will beat the hare.
    12 Apr 2014, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    T:

     

    "many of the names here, due to their nature and even more to depressed prices, play very sizable yields".

     

    Can you share your current favorite names in the sectors mentioned for further DD?

     

    Thanks
    14 Apr 2014, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16281) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    Just a few names worth a look:

     

    (PBR)
    (VALE)
    (SID)
    (ABEV)
    (BSBR)
    (BSMX)
    (AKO.A)
    (POT)
    (IRR)
    (IAE)
    (IHD)
    (SCCO)
    (SQM)
    (SDRL)
    (TEF)
    14 Apr 2014, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    Thanks T. IAE and IHD are new candidates, I think....
    14 Apr 2014, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you Tack for the long term investor. Names like (FCX); which I do not yet hold; are very interesting. Great yield and insider buying. I'd just like to see copper act better; and I'd pile in and to perhaps (http://bit.ly/ZGyZDY) too.

     

    FCX over 35 and TCK over 25; would negate the very long term downtrends both have been in, BTW

     

    My friday trades are a minority of my account, and are strictly for a traceable bounce. The CNBC type commentary about the death of the momo names is deafening. There is a sense of real panic there the last 2 days. Look at the weekly volume on (http://bit.ly/t2V5me) for example -- stampede like.

     

    For the trader, that is a potential short term opportunity. I don't though recommend those names for any long term hold. Odds are good for a short term bounce next week with Yellen speaking. Also encouraging, so far; is credit markets like (http://bit.ly/OtbNgN) are completing ignoring the selloff. That lowers the odds of seeing anything really serious, and raises those of a choppy, possibly working a little lower, sideways market that you see.

     

    I also like how fast the bearishness develops. It goes to the argument that Mom and Pop are not in the market as much, as I believed earlier this year. CNN Fear / Greed closed at 20 on Friday.
    12 Apr 2014, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10057) | Send Message
     
    My .02 on the market

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Apr 2014, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - A new chapter #17
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    As you drive over there, please shake off this chapter's stressers... and focus on how to make some good investments :).
    12 Apr 2014, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro's asked me to address this one point...

     

    He's shown he wasn't lying about his purchase. Period.

     

    In general... the personal attacks have gotten out of hand.

     

    --> It's not okay to call someone a liar on here. Proof or no proof... it's not okay. It's a huge statement to make about someone.

     

    --> It's not okay to call them a loser or troll. Proof or no proof.

     

    --> It's not okay to dredge up longer posts which were already hashed out and resolved and re-hash them.

     

    My decision was that I'll direct anyone who's that upset to take it offline to PM or the other person's blog. And stop posting here on that topic. I haven't had enough time to research, and it's cost me investment growth, and this isn't helping.

     

    Please back off. And apologize where appropriate (publicly or privately)... and get back to investing.

     

    I don't have time to write anything more right now... but can we settle this?
    12 Apr 2014, 05:17 PM Reply Like
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