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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #17 172 comments
    Apr 12, 2014 5:02 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #17. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #16: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/2829813-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-16?v=1397332077

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared!: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long IWM, DIA, SPY, MU, LINE, CVX, PSEC, TCAP.

    Additional disclosure: ...and many more...

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (172)
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  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    Ok let's kick the can!

     

    How do you see (CALL)?

     

    Bought last week at around $20.30. I did not call the shot here live...but I bought...for real :)

     

    My take:

     

    Probably the most undervalued small cap tech out there.

     

    New management that revamped the website and its functionalities (it was about time!) and is now addressing the client service.

     

    Profitable business that is now in good hands, good product and significant addressable market (when we combine mobile and land-lines). We could have a huge winner here.

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty ;)
    12 Apr, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't invest in (CALL) I think it is a dying industry, it is cheap but...
    13 Apr, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    What do they offer besides the magic jack? We tried the product and couldn't get the sound quality (or something caused us to return it.) That was some years ago.

     

    Change of management would be very good for them. So even intermediate trade, that would help.
    13 Apr, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    @Yair

     

    I really don't think it is a dying industry, quite the opposite. VOIP is the place to be. Especially when you can use VOIP with your mobile phone or tablet. In the US alone, 70M households have a classic telephone line. A lot of them have a plan with their cable provider for tv,Internet and phone but the price of their phone line is way too high. Same thing for. Vonage...too expensive. Skype...too expensive. Well...you are left with (CALL). You plug it into the wall (no more computer needed) and you are all set for unlimited calls at $2.50 a month. Could be cheaper (I bought 5 year plan at 99$) so it is $1.65 a month for a telephone line that comes with voice mail at no extra charge and e-mail notifications when someone calls or leaves a message. Cheap.

     

    The beauty of all this is the fact that they make money! Gross and net margins are fat to say the least.

     

    They got over 3M active subscribers and over 5M smartphone app subcribers (Vonage has a total of 2.4M) with the poor management they had. Imagine what they could do with a great management team.

     

    So it is bigger than Vonage, their prices are better than Vonage, the quality of the calls is at least the same than Vonage, their market cap is almost a third of Vonage and their margins are way better than. Vonage. Hmmm...

     

    I think they now can substantially grow their VOIP market share.

     

    @Lomah

     

    The quality is great. I use them all the time to call Canada from Africa.

     

    Let's see how it goes.
    Krusty
    13 Apr, 04:42 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    It's cheap, I just think the world is moving towards whatsapp/viber long term I don't see a business I could be wrong.
    13 Apr, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    @Yair

     

    Whatsapp/Viber is for a certain demographic.

     

    (CALL) is for another, bigger one in North America and Europe.

     

    Also, you can call anyone that has a phone number with (CALL). They don't need to have the same software or device that you have in order to receive those calls.

     

    Let's agree that we disagree. :)

     

    All the best.
    Krusty
    13 Apr, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    Just adding:

     

    Vonage Revenue 2007-today
    828 900 889 885 870 849 829

     

    Call revenue 2010 - today
    120 110 158 143

     

    The question really, can (CALL) take away market share?
    13 Apr, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    Yair:

     

    With their new management, I think they will grab new market share ans a Vonage will be their first victim :)

     

    Did you compare their margins? Vonage is in the low single digit area while CALL is in the high double digits area.

     

    Krusty
    13 Apr, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    Yair:

     

    To conclude. They are also moving into the whatsapp direction. They have the calls, so only thing missing for now are the written messages.

     

    From MagicJack site:

     

    For international callers, make FREE unlimited magicApp-to-magicApp calls worldwide.

     

    Download magicApp today and start making and receiving FREE calls instantly.
    13 Apr, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those new to the blog -- we've moved onto a new chapter #18
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Apr, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My energy thoughts.
    12 Apr, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    @Macro:

     

    What would you chose between nat gas and coal?

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    12 Apr, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    I think the coal names have more upside, much of it is due to the current price and risky capitalization structures....

     

    I sell PUTS / Calendar spreads in the coal area and own nat gas companies.
    13 Apr, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    That's interesting and I should do it too in coal. Which names?
    13 Apr, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    (ACI) mainly it's rallied a bit...
    13 Apr, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    You'ed think one day coal has to come back.
    13 Apr, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Nat Gas in a heartbeat. Reasons would be -- the bullish reasons in my post, and especially the Administration favors it.

     

    I've learned the hard way its no fun to fight the Govt.

     

    That might change in the future -- but I think it's perhaps too early for coal -- unless China starts rip-roaring again, or political change here.

     

    The best pick -- right now would be (TCK) -- and I am thinking about it. Very well run diversified materials company.
    12 Apr, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    The case for allocating a small (like 5-10%) of your portfolio to the "new economy". Now I agree with folks like Tack -- who are very cautious, as I am, on the new tech names.

     

    However, for the long, long term investor -- who is solely investing on a secular, long term theme basis and doesn't mind going offside for awhile -- the last 2 weeks have seen some pretty fierce selling, and when it's that intense, they dump the "good ones" along with the junk.

     

    Let's look, for example, at the "secular" trend in retail, for example. A company like amazon gets stronger and stronger each year, and mainline storefront retail gets weaker.

     

    This is secular trend, as more and more people, shop online, and is permanent in nature. That's why I think, traditional box retail -- is one of the worst secular investments , for the long term one can make.

     

    Unless they have a powerful online presence, or they are Walmart or Costco -- it's going to get tougher and tougher, overall, over the very long term.

     

    Amazon -- could become the largest retailer in the world one day. Just sayin -- its possible as we move, more and more online.

     

    Another "secular winner " is Google. We all use it daily. They are not a toy, not an online game company worth 7 billion. Its an essential tool.

     

    Just thoughts. If the SPX is destined for significant new highs -- and of course thats the caveat, as when that might happen -- it's difficult to not see those "internet blue chips" as participating. And we've had a nice dip, in both.
    12 Apr, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    I think the only name in tech is (GOOG)
    13 Apr, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Folks, For the record.

     

    I am happy to continue contributing to this blog in this constructive fashion.

     

    As I stated previously, I am not interested in debating the timing of every purchase I've ever made, going back and proving my case. That is the last time I will do this.

     

    I don't run a fund, and I don't promote penny stocks. Exactly what would I have to gain from claiming I bought a stock at any given price?

     

    Calling other contributors liars is serious and unacceptable behavior. There is no excuse whatsoever. Next time it goes to the SA mods, and I will report every single comment to them.

     

    What I will also not permit is any personal labelling by other contributors. You can bet I'll be shorting again this year. If you'ed rather not hear about those trades, indicate so as a community, and I'll simply say I'm cautious. If you wish to label, I'd prefer you keep you mouth closed. Active debate is one thing. Label someone's strategy a perpetual failure is another, and will not be tolerated.

     

    If this continues to be permitted here, it certainly discourages growth of the blog, and I will no longer contribute. That's it.
    13 Apr, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - This has gotten out of hand.

     

    Macro - you shouldn't have been accused & it's fair to be upset. You also made comments that were personal labels and escalated things in your frustration.

     

    This is how I'm going to be handling things:

     

    My standard which I'm going to use, is to remove every personal judgement and escalating comment. I'll try to remember to save the comments first so they can be reposted with just the investing thoughts. I'll private message to let the person know.

     

    So no personal judgements of others in any directions... but lots of room to comment that an investment strategy isn't going to work the way they think...!

     

    I'm not here 24/7, so if something's inappropriate, let me know... BUT DON'T COMMENT BACK TO IT!! I will remove the whole string... to avoid having it sitting up here and irritating over the long term. There are ways to answer that just say "that's out of line" without escalating and labeling back.

     

    I'm not going to get into more details about this. Who did what or whether it was okay or not or where it came from. Most of this is coming from some underlying lack of respect for another person's market perspective... and if that's your view of someone, that's fine. But it can't then spill into comments at them here. Life's too short.

     

    Good enough? Will this work? Can we move on? You can all just be mad at me when I remove a post :).

     

    I'll keep posting this when the situation comes up. .
    13 Apr, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    I sincerely apologize for sinking to the level of others in some of my comments.

     

    Being called a liar on a posted trade crossed my personal line.

     

    Let's move on.
    13 Apr, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    "Risk off" in U.S. -- but for now all seems ok as EM etf's had nice gains

     

    http://bit.ly/1lWNhIB
    13 Apr, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Thank you Macro. Fear&Greed has also moved on.

     

    So what's this I hear... EM ETFs are doing well?

     

    My question is, are they good to get into now that they're up. When I look at the charts for (EWZ) Brazil & (EEM) they're nearer to the top than bottom of their trading range. Made me think to wait and see how U.S. next week goes. If it corrects... won't everything go down?

     

    Tack - I'm sure you have an opinion on this :).
    13 Apr, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    I just think this line of thinking is terrible, there is no one on earth that can tell you if this week will be better than next week or a month from now.

     

    If you like the price buy if you don't, well than don't.
    13 Apr, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Y,

     

    I'm not crazy about the price relative to the trading range, hence my not buying now. I'd wait till next week or a later time, to see if the price is better and worthwhile. My question is on opinions about the price relative to it ETF's value. It's an index fund... so there's no fundamentals to evaluation it on for a price. It's more about macros and TA to judge an ETF.

     

    Good point on not knowing where it's going... but I wasn't looking for an entry point. I was looking for an evaluation assessment to see if the current entry point is good. ...and wondering how this market (sector) will likely move compared to others (US stocks).
    13 Apr, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    How does an ETF not have fundamentals?
    13 Apr, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Y,

     

    What fundamentals does an ETF have that's useful for determining price? P/E winds up being for too diverse a pool and part of macro world, seems to me. Am I missing something?
    13 Apr, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    LMH - My opinion re: eem and ewz is that at this point I'd rather wait for a pullback. They should go down or stall if the US falls further now that they've had a decent rally.
    13 Apr, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Thanks for the confirmation. So glad I didn't buy at that point, to watch 2-3% drops the couple days since. ...there should be a good entry point appearing...
    16 Apr, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    By this logic fundamentally there is no difference between the S&P and FXI.
    17 Apr, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    What does "risk off" mean? And onside?

     

    I've looked up the definitions, but that doesn't seem to be the way they are used.
    13 Apr, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    apparent "risk off " mentality now here in U.S. as the overall market sold off a bit , with the high flyers taking the biggest hit.. and while this was happening , 10-year Treasury yields have fallen from 2.80% to 2.60% over the past nine days in a " flight-to-safety" rally.

     

    meanwhile the EM's , often viewed as "risk on" markets had nice advances in the same time period,,

     

    so its not a " Risk off" mentality in the rest of the world ---at the moment .....

     

    is our market just getting rid of the excesses ? Is it just a bounce in the oversold EM's ? and they will now come back & join the "risk off " mode here in the U.S. OR will U.S come back and join the risk on party that the EM's are having ?

     

    In my view , if u do have a LT perspective , just sit back & watch what unfolds..
    13 Apr, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    Agree entirely with your last statement. It's hard watching the big swings, but since I have at least another 15 years of work (wish it was 5 years), I'm just holding tight and watching how is shakes out. I'll admit I have gotten 100% better with investing from the ideas of others here. Only one new purchase in the last month and that was (KO). Wish I had picked it up when it was under $37. Still adding to my positions in my Simple IRA every two weeks via payroll deduction. Still stand by my feeling that the overall economy is moving in the right direction. Could be better, but overall I'm nowhere near feeling like I did late 2008. Let's see what the next few months bring. I'm definitely feeling a HOT summer on the horizon.
    13 Apr, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • invest2bfree
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    This is my 1st time posting here.

     

    I have gotten my a$$ kicked the last few days from a modest gain 5% for the year to a down of 3%.

     

    What do you guys think of BDCs like psec where I can park my capital get some 13% dividends out and then invest the dividends speculatively.

     

    My main fear of BDCs is if the economy turns down then we will see rash of defaults.
    13 Apr, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    Invest,

     

    Accumulating dividends for use elsewhere is basically what I'm doing with my BDC's. I'm invested in (PSEC) and kind of use it as a high yielding savings account. Might not be the smartest thing to do, but my avg cost without counting div's is about break even over the last 2 years. So, IMO it's done the samething as a savings account, but PSEC Is providing me about an 11% yield.
    13 Apr, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » invest2bfree - Welcome!!

     

    It looks like your portfolio moved in line with the market, so nothing to worry about. It'd come back up when the market does. A few investors here stablized their portfolio by rotating into undervalued sectors (I wasn't one of them :). )

     

    I got into BDCs right before they were removed from the indices, and a couple missed earnings. So I'm down a lot. They are still well above their low point last summer during ZIRP worries. So the interest is nice, but it could take a while before I break even on price.

     

    BDCs tend to do well in sideways and moderate growth markets. In high growth, money moves away into growth stocks. But we haven't been in ZIRP before where, yield seekers had very little other choices. I expect them to go down more when ZIRP worries reappear at the end of the year (even though the FED isn't going to raise rates until the economic growth can handle it.)

     

    On bad downturns they are riskier. However, the larger, older ones survived the 2007-9 crash. Their prices lost more than traditionally safe sectors. But they recovered afterward. So while it may be hard to look at when down, if there is a big correction... it's less likely to be a principle risk. Especially since it doesn't look like a major crash is on the horizon. If anything it'll be a correction.

     

    Still, they've benefited from ZIRP and writeups expectations are that they won't be as popular as that winds down. So if I find a good exit point... I'm likely to leave. But I'm also starting out from a much higher buy-in point. My (PSEC) is at break even. (TCAP) and (TDRC) -- I try not to look too hard :). 7-10% down.
    15 Apr, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    Invest,

     

    welcome,,

     

    IMHO, if you have had a swing of 8% as u describe, might your portfolio not be diversified enough? or perhaps all allocated to high beta speculative names.. ?

     

    "Tack" is the expert here on SA -- RE: income investing , you'll get some great info from him
    13 Apr, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Tommorrow morning could be interesting from a risk perspective. Shots have been fired in eastern Ukraine, a couple of people killed and wounded. . It's possible -- we could have a very weak open.

     

    I don't llike to see conflict and people killed, but my focus needs to be the market reaction, as that's my business. Emotional events are so often buying opportunites.

     

    If we see a big morning selloff, as the market is oversold already, it sets up a favourable entry point for risk trades, at least on a short term basis. It may, also be an excellent exit opportunity for gold related trades.

     

    Let's see what happens and consider your shopping lists.
    13 Apr, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. With the major earnings and economic reports coming out on Wed/Thurs, we could see the selling tomorrow and then some short covering/buying on Tuesday ahead of the data. But "turn around Tuesday" could turn into wobbly Wednesday and trashed Thursday if the reports aren't good so I intend to limit my risk.

     

    On Friday I took profits on my steel stocks - X, AKS - when prices fell below the previous weeks low. I also bought some dest near $25, a stock I previously owned and had a long ago placed GTC order. I wouldn't recommend this one to anyone yet since the chart looks a bit ugly and the stock is illiquid, but by the time I realized I had bought it, it had a profit and saw no reason to exit it yet since it looks like it could be a double bottom on the weekly chart. They have a stellar balance sheet and decent dividend, but earnings can be erratic as they are a specialty retailer (dealing largely with maternity clothes). I also bought and pitched wy for a small loss. I thought it should hold $28, but when it didn't, got out. Housing starts on Wednesday could positively affect WY if they're good, so I might take a stab at buying some options either if the stock moves down below $27 or Tuesday.

     

    I'm not sure about any individual names ahead of earnings, but am considering buying call options on the xlv, xlp and xli sector etf's - probably the weekly calls that expire April 25th. Heavy reporting of stocks in the healthcare space, consumer staples and industrials will occur over the next two weeks. Those options are not particularly expensive and I'd rather lose a known amount in options than taking big risks ahead of earnings in individual stocks. For some stocks, depending upon vol and perceived risk I might sell put options.

     

    Ordinarily I'm not so wishy-washy, but the technical picture and seasonality make me leery of any placing big bets. And I don't think the market is yet oversold enough to react positively if there's any bad news.
    13 Apr, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    We have the selloff, I'm executing my plan.
    13 Apr, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Yellen speaks this week as well. Another catalyst and we might see buying ahead of this.
    13 Apr, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    So Far so good this morning. Nasdaq's are up from last night and even that HLF bomb trading back at 53.50. (ICPT) released good data , and very nice retail sales as the weather effect fades. Best to all today.
    14 Apr, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the S&P will open a few points below the breakdown level of the 1840ish level. I don't think it can get through it until later in the week when there's more info on the economic stats and earnings, but I've been wrong before. While the retail sales were good, they're not great considering sales are playing catchup from the weather depressed sales in Dec and Jan. I intend to buy nothing higher and perhaps look at some weekly puts.

     

    One thing I'm impressed with however, is how Asia largely shrugged off the big US Friday decline and the Ukraine news. Only Australia, where talk of a killer budget coming in May - reduced spending, possibly a higher retirement age and possibly higher taxes - was down hard.
    14 Apr, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    I won't be doing too much on the open; might trim some Nasdaq futures from 30 -40 points lower, but will keep the additional stock exposure from Friday, I anticipate. Could see a 2 + day bounce here possibly....
    14 Apr, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Looks like everyone is looking at the same points. Crummy action since the opening.

     

    One thing I should have mentioned this weekend was an Ohio report showing fracking was causing more earthquakes. As a result that state is putting in some measure hoping to stop that including requiring seismic monitors. As yet I can't find a publicly traded company that makes them, perhaps you have an idea.

     

    If there becomes major restrictions that could shift some drilling from onshore to offshore that could benefit the deep water drillers - esv, rig, sdrl, etc vs nbr and others. Also, that could elevate nat gas prices. I think it is too early to expect any major reduction in fracking - after all fracking brings jobs and revenues to the states - but it's something to be monitored.
    14 Apr, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Lousy bounce; overall. Hmmm. Natural gas stocks Like (CHK) (ECA) flying here. Standing pat.
    14 Apr, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    Interesting chart

     

    http://bit.ly/1t0jPpu
    14 Apr, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Sold out of (GILD) (DDD). Lightened (ICPT) More sector issues with leadership there.
    14 Apr, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    HLF back up to 56, + 9% on the day. I suppose I'll survive after all.
    14 Apr, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Good for you! You obviously have a stronger stomach than I have - and/or are much younger. I can't handle those highly volatile battleground stocks. On occasion I get tempted but generally lay down and wait for that feeling to pass.
    14 Apr, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    It's tough on that one but I believe there's a 5 to one Risk reward on it. Price action tells a story too. Standing pat although might trim a touch at 60 due to the volatility.
    14 Apr, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    long (tck)
    14 Apr, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    What made you pull the trigger now? Personally if I wasn't in it yet I would either have waited for a pullback or to see if there was follow through above last weeks resistance - this looks like no man's land. Just trying to see if I can learn something about entries - not questioning the trade. My chart/technical/trading knowledge is better than most but I still have much to learn.
    14 Apr, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    You are correct DD; it is in no-mans land with resistance above.However it has had a 3 day pullback, and now is leading higher. In short, I've seen enough.

     

    (TCK) goes with my current market view, it is high quality and well managed, pays me to wait, and perhaps most of all, I believe it will pierce the resistance this time, and air pocket higher; and I'd rather not be frantically chasing it. I simply am buying in front of what I believe will likely occur.

     

    My mistake has often been, buying a weaker name like (WLT). Your idea of (TCK) is bang on.
    14 Apr, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I think part of the difference with us is that I never assume something will be a trade. I'm always looking for the best to hold longer term. It may turn into a trade (1 day to several weeks) if the technicals start to look bad, I can't think of a good reason to buck the chart, or the fundamentals take a turn for the worse. So rather than picking an aci or wlt - which - who knows may actually be seeing a low, I go with a quality balance sheet.

     

    I realized aci or wlt could outperform if coal was making a long term bottom since those names were heavily shorted and tck wasn't, but I just can't bring myself to buy company that could be on the verge of going bankrupt. And in general those types of stocks tend to have higher volatility which I can't handle.
    15 Apr, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    You approach it with wisdom DD.

     

    Quality is the way to go. I was approaching this sector like a futures trade, looking for a big short squeeze. Hasn't worked , as they have too much debt, so every rally attacked. Ive thrown a bit too much money away on (WLT). It does work with crushed momo stocks on a day like today, where some showed strength at the bottom, setting up a later squeeze.

     

    You are welcome on my instaposts, I have 2 going for gold and Nat gas.

     

    All the best, like your rational approach.
    15 Apr, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    I'm a little wary here, I've cut risk down, big tech looks a touch soft. Who knows but a re-test on the QQQ / IWM lows would'nt surprise me at all.
    14 Apr, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Thats Tech risk that is, Energy looks fantastic.
    14 Apr, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - What's good in energy? I have (CVX) and (LINE).

     

    I don't know whether to start getting into (IWM) and (SPY) -- index ETFs at this point for the longer term (until I move more money into individual). I'm thinking like an individual stock... start adding since it's not at it's top.
    14 Apr, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I prefer esv over rig. Their divy is over 6%, their fleet newer and I think they have better mgmt than rig.. OIH is also OK - the etf on the service sectors. For energy, cop is a safe bet as is cvx.
    14 Apr, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I also like the mlp pipelines. If you don't want to bother with the special tax forms consider amlp - the etf on the pipelines - the yield is just over 6%.
    14 Apr, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    You know, I don't think you can go wrong with either rig or esv - they will trade together for the most part. Rig has a slightly higher short interest so it could go up more initially IF they go up at all.
    14 Apr, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    I would agree with your comment re: (RIG & (ESV)

     

    I own both , added RIG when Icahn got involved, and i believe there is talk of the div being increased to $3/sh from the present $2.24

     

    (ESV) is very solid
    14 Apr, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    L,
    (RIG) @ 40.75 attractive at these levels.. 5.6% yield ,

     

    Two E & P energy stocks i own are all stretched a bit (CXO) & (WLL) - i wouldn't chase

     

    (PXD) Has come down to its 200 day MA ,, worthy of purchase

     

    all have good LT potential..
    14 Apr, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    I'm becoming more convinced that a long term rotation discussed by some here is occurring, with money flowing to the real economy from the virtual economy.

     

    Either this money buying names like CAT X TCK and a host of others is completely wrong; or we have an economic acceleration at some point coming down the pipe.

     

    Among other ideas; makes a strong argument for shorting gold at some point.
    14 Apr, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I don't have a clue. There are too many missing pieces in this puzzle for me to draw a conclusion. This is feeling more and more like a bear market (higher open then fade), but I want to keep an open mind ahead of earnings.
    14 Apr, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    There are a few things going on in my mind, beyond one's view of the long term cycle.

     

    One possible reason for the fade; is simply large scale selling of the big (new tech) winners to pay tax, tommorrow is April 15th. Possibly some Ukraine anxiety, possibly simply a corrective period but basis QQQ / IWM.

     

    I'm seeing some powerful moves in energy and materials across the board, and just trying to go with it before it becomes mainstream. No view though, that the broader market will necessarily make new highs for awhile.
    14 Apr, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    u aren't alone with the no clue :)

     

    UP , big fade , then a complete reversal on that move as well .

     

    its still too early (for me) to come to any conclusions , BUT take a look at the Nasdaq chart ,, IF it holds here it may be presenting us with a "double bottom" right around the 3960 -3980 level.

     

    Was it a coincidence that when it hit that level , everything reversed and shot higher..? we'll see

     

    I also notice the (IBB) biotech index has made a complete 100% retracement from where it broke out back in Nov 13 -- at the 213 level.. FOR the moment it too bounced off of that when the tide turned upward..

     

    Interesting developments for sure.. & that has the 'feel" of computer generated algos taking over..

     

    lets see if these levels i mention do in fact hold or fail down the road..
    14 Apr, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    DD; there's really nothing too too unusual going on, technically.

     

    In my comment of 12:30 pm I thought that there was developing intra-day softness in big tech, and a retest of the Nasdaq low's wouldn't surprise me.

     

    This is very common to form a potential base, that a market will re-test. Both the SPX and QQQ's tested their lows and held, making a successful retest and potential current low.

     

    This volatility is unnerving people, due to the character of the market in recent years, but it opens up tons of opportunities.....and for long term investors to open positions.
    14 Apr, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2493) | Send Message
     
    Good. I managed to secure some minor profit by taking some significant fraction off the table last week as a precautionary move. Hoping to regroup and pick up some targeted good value incrementally over the next weeks and months without the need to claw back.
    14 Apr, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    The (IBB) gave it up and the 212 level was breached .

     

    50 wk MA is 196 or another 7% from here..

     

    NASDAQ 200 day MA is 3942,, a breach there and it brings in the 50 wk MA @ 3867.... as potential support
    15 Apr, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Thanks!!

     

    I'll take a couple days to look at these... gives me a great way to get into them. Energy is looking very green...

     

    On the macromovement -- market is all over the place today.
    14 Apr, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1oYpQU3

     

    A secular move in natural gas.
    14 Apr, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1675) | Send Message
     
    My core value, DGI stocks are holding up well during this choppy market. (BUD), (IBM), (MCD), (JNJ), (NOC), (KMB), (CL) (COP), (CSX), (UNP), (PEP), (MMM), (WEC), (FL), (M), (SCG).

     

    Some other stocks are down a little but still are good companies, like (V) (SBUX) (TSCO) (LMT) (VZ) (CBRL) (MAT) (BGS) (STZ) (BX) (BLK) (KKR) (OAK) (DNKN) (KKD) (PSEC) (PTY) (LVS) (MCK) (VALE) so I'm not selling them any time soon.

     

    The growth stocks will require some patience, some are doing better than others. Thankfully they are a small portion of my overall portfolios. I have confidence that (GILD) (CELG) (AZO) (GOOG) (PCLN) (WYN) (FB) will all do better in the future.

     

    Lots of good stocks at discount prices still out there, if you are shopping. I'm still looking, adding to a few positions when I see a good "sale."

     

    Dividends keep rolling in : )
    14 Apr, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    BSK: You listed 42 stocks and you work. How do you keep up with them all? Have you ever tracked on a long term basis how you are doing relative to some benchmark, like the S&P?
    15 Apr, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1675) | Send Message
     
    DD, I am not working, except at investing....which is a full time job. I take care of the house, my family, and 2 big dogs. Most of time I cook meals from fresh ingredients, which is healthier for us. That all adds up to keep me very busy. I'm constantly reading about stocks, every single day. I probably have close to 70 stocks now.

     

    Just last year, starting in March, I converted all our investments that were previously in individual bonds, municipal bonds, and mutual funds to stocks.

     

    I do check how I'm doing with the DOW, S&P, & Nasdaq. So far so good. Last year I made over $200,000. I'm managing over $2 million in assets, which includes real estate and cash.

     

    Not bad for a total non professional.
    15 Apr, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Good for you! I assumed you were working a regular job by something you said previously and the fact you don't usually comment during the session.

     

    I have less than half of your positions, and some are clustered in industries (several banks, a few rails), so I keep track of less than that - and don't find it easy.
    16 Apr, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,Blue

     

    anyone managing their own money and having success should get a big pat on the back

     

    No free lunches - it's work !!
    16 Apr, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Excellent Cam Hui article not yet on SA.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hHfKmz
    15 Apr, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    Thanks for the article. It is interesting. His conclusion is this will be the usual midyear election pattern most likely, down May, June, bounce back July, back down Aug, Sept. ...but he pulls in all sorts of other leading writers' thoughts and analyzes them, to get to his conclusion.

     

    Of them the fundamentals explanation of market getting head of itself on credit & earnings pricing... makes sense. I still think that Hartnett's idea that end of tapering will bring a market slow down over rate-worries will happen (in fits and spurts.) Also there's the idea that the market is expensive according to everyone, but there's no place else to go... so that has to balance at some point.

     

    But overall... still supporting that there is a general bull environment.

     

    Anyone else have thoughts on the article and all of this?
    15 Apr, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,L

     

    I mentioned the mid term election cycle and others in my update last Sat.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    as stated there , that concept is very popular now and is the "talk" among investment managers.

     

    while i respect it, maybe its now just a self fulfilling prophecy ..
    15 Apr, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    The trade I have recently mentioned, short Gold, has triggered and I am short June futures. I see a potential big move down here developing. Trigger is a WSJ story about weaker Chinese demand.
    15 Apr, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    F&G - what I see as more likely is weakness ahead of that seasonally weak period as traders try to front run it, and then a rally when it should be weakest because people already sold.
    15 Apr, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    Agreed, your scenario would be a good "setup" to overturn the "mid term " cycle followers..

     

    :)
    15 Apr, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, DD

     

    Can you lay this out better for me? So it'd get weak in April, early May... then start a rally later May, into June when it'd traditionally be coming down. Because this market has more trading movement in it (for various reasons).

     

    Did I understand it... or miss anything?
    15 Apr, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - This market's been persistent in liking the earnings & bulling off them.

     

    I find it hard to believe it won't rally as earnings come in. No matter what they are.
    15 Apr, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Just forget about the seasonal BS. Ignore it!!!! I've often found when it is over anticipated it doesn't work - at least not early on. What could happen is a May/early June rally because people got too short early, then when they get all the shorts out the market goes back down.

     

    Stick with the fundamentals and clear technicals. If the economic stats and earnings are bad watch the market go down. If they are good, watch the market rally.
    15 Apr, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Just wait - it's early yet.
    15 Apr, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (598) | Send Message
     
    Seasonality exists because of liquidity needs in building up for Christmas, it's why "sell in may" was irrelevant this last year as it will be next year.
    17 Apr, 04:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    I wouldn't have thought of Christmas for a May dip. It's a big economic driver. How does building up liquidity for Christmas result in a May sell off? Holiday anticipation among retail isn't till Sept-Nov. Business start anticipating by summer -- but why would that result in a market dip?
    17 Apr, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1m4V4Xs.
    15 Apr, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I typically don't trade gold, but occasionally foray into gld (which echoes perfectly the movement in gold) and gld options. I looked at the gld chart and there is good support just about $2-3 lower in the $122.50-$123 level, so I wouldn't want to jump in until that's broken. I'll take a look at gld options after the open; gld options are relatively cheap with implied vol in the low to mid teens going out into even the longer dated options, like Jan 15. Perhaps I do some bear put spreads later today.
    15 Apr, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Macro - I'll leave the gold pricing moves to you. (I have no idea :). I've been watching (DUST) to see if it gets down below 20 again. It was down at 16 during the Ukraine crisis and I was waiting to buy -- then missed it. Next time it gets that low I'm in!
    15 Apr, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » --

     

    I finally asked someone who'd been through geopolitical crisis, what role gold played in rescuing them. It'd dawned on me that in all my years of listening to people tell their stories of these crisis events... I'd never heard the word gold mentioned. No one ever told me to make sure I stored some gold. (I did get told to get an education, work hard, fit into the economy.)

     

    So ...during the initial smuggling and bribing stage, he was a little young to remember clearly. But figured a few gold coins could have come along by people. Mostly though it was selling silver candlesticks or jewelry if you were rich enough to have some at the start. Gold coins' value was that other countries' currencies might collapse, or you'd be crossing borders a lot. Otherwise it'd have no special value. They weren't rich enough to have silver candlesticks, so whatever they used to bribe the guards... they wouldn't have had gold. (And how well did the bribe work? - the guards were shooting at them as they crossed.)

     

    On the other side of the crisis, coming back you weren't allowed to take anything of value out of the country they wound up in. So he remembers there were huge piles of gold and valuables at the border exits. Because if you were caught with it on you trying to leave the country, you'd be sent to jail.

     

    Instead he'd think that holding silver or platinum or something with more industrial uses, would be a better hedge during a crisis.

     

    So while precious metals have their place in a portfolio to diversify from stocks... I'm not personally inclined to keep them as a hedge against world crisis.
    15 Apr, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I've been demonized here on SA because of my vocal stance on the Pm's , especially GOLD ..

     

    The old adage about having a certain percentage of gold in a portfolio as "insurance" is nonsense -

     

    for me its an old wives tale that is promoted by of all people -- the precious metals salesman --

     

    I have shown countless times here on SA that Gold in fact does NOT act as "insurance" at all..

     

    it is stil in a "bear" market & add in the environment we find ourselves in and Gold will continue to underperform .. Sub 1,000 is still a possibility in the future
    15 Apr, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    DD

     

    I might too, add a long dated GLD out of the money puts.
    15 Apr, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1675) | Send Message
     
    L, that sounds like a WWII story!

     

    One of my relatives wanted to leave Switzerland after the war, to go to France. They weren't allowed to take any money out of the country. So what he did was put all his Swiss money in a paper bag, then he placed it on the other side of the fence (probably pretended to go to the bathroom) then he got back in line with his family. Once over the border, he nonchalantly walked over to his paper bag & went on his merry way.

     

    IMO, if we ever have to worry about candlesticks, gold pieces etc. it will be too late. Likely we will be more worried about dodging bullets & where the next meal is coming from.

     

    I really think we have zero to worry about in the USA.

     

    If things got really bad, I'd just go back to where my mom is in the midwest. You can't get any safer than living in the midwest. Those people can survive anything. Every year, they live thru worse winters than we do. They don't even complain about it either.
    15 Apr, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3754) | Send Message
     
    "They don't even complain about it either."

     

    I lived in WI for over 30 years. I complained about it ALL THE TIME!
    15 Apr, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1675) | Send Message
     
    lol JBT, you are a wimp ; )

     

    I'll never forget those days when the wind chill factor made the temp. -85 degrees.

     

    I remember that if you didn't have your long underwear on, you didn't survive very long.

     

    Snow in April? Of course. My mom said they got an inch of snow on Monday.

     

    Moving back there does scare me lol. I don't know if I'm tough enough anymore : )
    15 Apr, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3754) | Send Message
     
    During the last part of my stay "up north", I worked a 4am - 1pm shift. Let me tell you - Getting up at 2:00 in the morning to dig out your driveway after the plows dumped 3 feet of snow, ice and slush in it is not pleasant.
    15 Apr, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    It's snowing here where I am tonight. I thought it was spring! What is this white stuff?
    16 Apr, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Out of Switzerland, that was clever. I might have tried it. Out of Russia - with risk of Siberia if caught? Maybe not so much :). Talk about snow.
    16 Apr, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    More curve flattening? PPI for final demand a week ago was a hotter number as this mornings CPI report. Yet longer dated bonds (10, 30 year) could be more heavily influenced by the continued low global 10 year yields. This wouldn't be good for the banks.
    15 Apr, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    A secular reason to short Gold.
    15 Apr, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to shatter my image as a gold - hoarder doom and gloom perma - bear, LOL.
    15 Apr, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - M

     

    You didn't have a gold hoarder image. That was shattered back months and months ago when you clarified your stance... and pointed out that you hadn't mentioned gold.
    15 Apr, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Everyone

     

    Just a heads up -- please don't start a long involved discussion about the value of gold here. IT"s blog focuses on that a lot & they'll love it if you comment there. And this one has been more focused on stock investing.

     

    I just thought the conversation I'd had with a family member the other day was worth passing on. So sorry if I started something :).
    15 Apr, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    L;

     

    Just light humor.

     

    My best trade last year actually was shorting the gold producers, funny enough.
    15 Apr, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M,

     

    :-).

     

    ...my best loses last year, were daytrading gold :). So I'll trade you experiences!!!
    Very frustrating, but at least it's looking good on my taxes!
    15 Apr, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    Factset research is now forecasting a decline in earnings for this quarter --

     

    the chart indicates that their estimates have been beaten handily quarter after quarter,

     

    Hence my earlier comments - that i'm not in that "camp" regarding the results for the quarter.

     

    http://bit.ly/1m53VZh

     

    perhaps many have positioned themselves based on the "negative" forecast

     

    We'll see..
    15 Apr, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Factset is wrong with their commentary. They should have said there's going to be a sequential reduction relative to Q4 2013. To have a annual reduction from Q1 2013 it would have to be below $24.24 on the quarter. They are largely using the same data as Howard Silverblatt from S&P does, and his earnings estimate is $27.25.
    15 Apr, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F, everyone

     

    For those good at fundamental analysis... now that prices came down (a little)... are most stocks in your long term holdings looking fair valued based on current earnings... or still pricy or looking undervalued?

     

    In other words... for long term investors did this dip bring things back into a reasonably easy buy mode? I'm thinking it wasn't enough of a dip for that.
    15 Apr, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Largely still very fully priced. Most of the quality stuff - ie, that have reasonable p/e's haven't come down that much. They could be cheap if the economy accelerates, but data still doesn't say that will happen. Just be patient. This could be a rough summer. If you can't stop yourself from buying, look at call options where your downside risks are known.
    15 Apr, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Select issues have come down enough where i feel one can start a position in them ----

     

    IF one has a LT perspective and understands that they may no be buying at the absolute bottom..

     

    Picking that bottom is difficult if not impossible.. but there are some issues that have nice risk /reward setups for the LT.
    15 Apr, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    That bull consolidation in (CHK) is getting challenged for a potential upside breakout, as the powerful rally in the producers continues -- Long (CHK) (ECA) (TO.BIR) (TO.POU)
    15 Apr, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    I'm a risk buyer on this dip
    Buying a little of the most volatile, TSLA 191, WDAY 73.

     

    Also Note Higher Low on the SPX Index. All in all I think the SPX is a strong buy, right here right now, and gold is a screaming short.
    15 Apr, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    http://cnnmon.ie/QxDqZ3

     

    Buy Hysteria. Buy the fear.
    15 Apr, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    This is a GREAT moment to buy your shopping list Tech Stocks. Total Washout QQQ's ,
    15 Apr, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    (WDAY) 77.00, entry 73.00. 3 posts higher for the doubters.

     

    Looks like a potential bottom in that stock anyway. Others trying to base as well.

     

    Some chatter that some redemption's / forced selling at Tech focused funds, can be an opportunity to buy.

     

    Certainly a major washout happening in biotech here.
    15 Apr, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I'm having a good day despite losses in tck and em plays (eem, epi) since a number of my large positions - amlp, brkb and vtr are outperforming. I'm a little concerned about the two income plays in the short run - they're had a big out performance over the past month and if the earnings for the cyclical plays are good and economic data is good over the next couple days they will start to underperform again. I took off a little bit of vtr since it's up more than 2% and it reports next week.

     

    I haven't bought any stocks but have been active in options - all the weekly options that expire next Friday, April 25th. I bought some put spreads in the spy when the S$P was near resistance at 1840 and have since bought calls on ge and xlv on the weakness. The big biotechs do comprise a decent percent of the healthcare etf and they report next week. I figure it's a cheaper way of getting in and limiting my risk than buying calls in the ibb. I haven't done anything in gld put options since it held the opening levels - I can't decide whether to do a bit or wait until tomorrow.

     

    The market is giving me mixed signals that I hope will be cleared up with the economic reports over the next two days (housing starts, industrial production and Philly Fed). I look at the strength of jnk relative to the stock market (and jnk held up well when the S&P dropped near its lows) and that suggests to me there are plenty of buyers in stocks on weakness. But I don't like how em is down on big volume and some basic materials are weak.
    15 Apr, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    there are crosscurrent everywhere.. for now-- once again the NASDAQ has held and the "double bottom " is in place.

     

    SPX - has held both yesterday's & friday's lows - but we still have an hour to go in the trading day :)
    15 Apr, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Markets generally hold major technical points in the absence of significant news. I would have expected the Naz to hold the 200 dma and the spx to hold last weeks lows ahead of major earnings and economic reports over the next two days.

     

    The question is what do they do tomorrow and Friday?
    15 Apr, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    Contenders (those with fundamentals) vs the pretenders (development stage biotech)

     

    (CELG),(BIIB),(AMGN)
    (GILD), ... were tossed with the bathwater

     

    http://bit.ly/1jIAmt3
    15 Apr, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    We'll find out! Interesting - that they tend to hold TA points on non-news days. Makes sense... it's what the computers are set for, and no news blurb changes it.
    16 Apr, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Trimming some (WDAY) 78.50, entry 73.00, (ICPT) 242, entries 215 -220.
    15 Apr, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Huge bid in (HLF) too, doesn't hurt the day.
    15 Apr, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I see a couple reasonabe options plays ahead of tomorrows economic reports - the etf wood and itb, homebuilders etf. You can buy the Wood May 50 call options around 50 cents (might cost 55 -60). The implied volatility is 16. Chart wise it's either just breaking down on the weekly chart or making a bottom. It's illiquid without much volume, but if the economic news is good between now and May expiration you can always exercise it. A cheaper way $wise to play tomorrows housing starts report would be to buy the ITB April 23.50 call that expires Thursday. The itb (home builders) look like a head and shoulders pattern that is close to breaking down, but if tomorrows housing starts are good it can easily be up a few % over the next couple days. Try to buy at the midpoint of the bid/ask - recently either 20 or 25 cents depending what itb is doing..
    15 Apr, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Wild action in (ICPT) + 43 points off the LOD.
    15 Apr, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Cut down the high beta risk I bought on the dips; prepared for another cycle Buy dips, sell rips. Leaving everything else alone.

     

    These trades add some "alpha performance" to my longer term book. Keeping 1/2 the (WDAY) from 73, out of (http://bit.ly/RmISVr), (http://bit.ly/cANO8m) --

     

    Not sure biotech has bottomed -- so unwilling to really hold there.
    15 Apr, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Agree about biotech - I don't have really good support for the IBB until and uptrend on the weekly chart @ $180. That's why I limited my risk buy buying the xlv calls that expire next week. I know exactly how much I can lose.
    15 Apr, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Yeah DD; its risky.

     

    I'm still short some puts in (ICPT) from around here -- Nutty premiums -- just a few, and a few other short puts like in (http://bit.ly/t2V5me) I was pretty loaded on the lows there, but I'd be nuts not to take off risk on an 80 point nasdaq rally in this environment.

     

    My read is from the sector action, and the fact we have broken a parabolic bubble, is the biotech sector is to treated with extreme caution ---Not a core holding for me.
    15 Apr, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    L, DD et all, I've made a decision to refrain from posting here.

     

    I've decided to join a trader chat room outside of SA with some other experienced traders, a forum more suited to my focus, where I will exchange shorter term ideas.

     

    I may post the odd instablog as I have done on SA on my current macro investment themes, you are welcome to check those out if you wish. (there are 2 active ones now, Natural Gas and Gold)

     

    My desire was to contribute here to a group, my contrarian style for entry's, what I look at in measuring the rthym of markets and sectors, etc, but it's not working out.

     

    I have no interest in competing with personalities that constantly impart that their thinking and approach is the only one of value, that degenerate and tear down other posters.

     

    Most of all I do not need my character attacked when I post trades, to be inferred a liar. This is unacceptable behavior on any forum, and has crossed my personal line as to be a distraction.

     

    I am having a solid year and wish to retain my focus.

     

    So good luck to you all, all the best, keep studying the markets.

     

    M
    15 Apr, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3754) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to see you go, as I would be for anyone who leaves. Hopefully you can find a thicker skin in your new chat group. ;)

     

    Best,

     

    JB in TN
    15 Apr, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    I'm sorry to see you go. The personal comments had stopped so I'm not sure what prompted this today.

     

    Thank you for your contributions and ideas. I've learned from your ideas. I wish you lots of success in your investments, and finding a crowd that's a good place to hang out.

     

    Take care and happy investing!

     

    BTW, I did buy in some today (index ETF)... at the bottom :).
    16 Apr, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Best of luck; I'll miss your short term perspective. Can you provide a link to the trader's chat room - I may check it out.
    16 Apr, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    DD;

     

    I'll PM it. these guys are more futures and derivative traders, not sure that's what you are looking for.

     

    Of course, remember that short term traders are all likely;
    A) immoral B) Unethical C) a lower form of life
    D) Frustrated bears E) Gold bugs
    F) likely making up their trades anyway.

     

    LOL!
    16 Apr, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3754) | Send Message
     
    G) Like to beat dead horses?
    16 Apr, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I'm always interested in learning more.

     

    BTW - I don't know whether you ever read my profile but in my past life I was a (very successful) grain futures analyst and trader. While my advantage lay in the long term fundamental spread type trading, I certainly understand short term thinking. Sometimes the long term is just too hard to figure out and the market becomes a choppy traders delight.

     

    I know you don't see short term traders as lower than life - neither do I.
    16 Apr, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    a prominent price and volume spike on the very day Morgan Stanley’s analysts told us of their electric battery-driven Utopian vision for the future…

     

    http://bit.ly/1jIXIyU

     

    reminds me of the day every analyst raised their PT on AAPL to over 1000 , the last time it traded @ 700 , the all time high
    15 Apr, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    What a difference a year makes !!

     

    http://bit.ly/Rnbf60

     

    how does that go - the first shall be last and the last shall be first ??

     

    :)
    15 Apr, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    From Goldman Sachs

     

    many of the largest hedge funds have had a rough 6 weeks. As their Long positions have underperformed and their Short positions have outperformed, the top performing hedge funds have seen a reversal. Because many use leverage, they have needed to shrink their risk book as their positions moved against them. And with so many top performing hedge funds all owning the same high growth, momentum names, the unwind has happened very suddenly. Here is one of the largest hedge funds shrinking their risk book and returning capital to investors…

     

    Hedge fund Coatue Management plans to return more than $2 billion in capital to investors in its flagship fund after extreme volatility in technology stocks led to a 9 percent loss in March… Laffont said the market’s move in March was as “sudden and deep as some of the gut-wrenching dislocations of 2000-2002 and 2008-2009.” During the month, Coatue’s long positions moved five- to 10-times more than the broader market, he wrote… In response to the market move, Coatue has reduced its gross and net exposure to levels near historic lows. “This puts us in a position to go back on the offense when we choose, even though this approach means it might take us longer to recoup our losses,” Laffont wrote.

     

    One explanation of the crazy volatility we have seen
    15 Apr, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    From schaeffer research

     

    A historical chart of April - typically the SPX bottoms on the 14th and rallies- maybe the same this year ?

     

    http://bit.ly/RncodS
    15 Apr, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Energy (ESV) *(RIG) down a lot today -- maybe a good entry point for a long term buy?

     

    Looks like the dip is ending, and it's a good time to build for long term positions?
    16 Apr, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I do like both --

     

    the price action is frustrating lately , however they are not expensive and pay good dividends..

     

    risk/reward at these prices looks ok to me..
    16 Apr, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - I'll be out rest of day and evening.......so please let me know the results of the various Fed speaks today :).

     

    Have a good investing day, everyone!!
    16 Apr, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    L,
    Nothing exciting in the Yellen speech

     

    the market certainly didn't read anything negative into her words as all of the averages showed nice gains.

     

    :)

     

    don't know if u pulled the trigger on (RIG) or (http://bit.ly/Gztvwv)

     

    (http://bit.ly/oeANwU) @ 40 yields 5.4% , mgmnt has discussed the possibility of raising the div to $3 which would bring the yield to over 7%

     

    If its a LT investment for you the risk /reward is COMPELLING- many analysts are trashing this sector , the worst is already baked into these names.

     

    I like buying when there is fear and blood in the streets , this sector fits that description :)
    16 Apr, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    My account made a new high today. Why don't I feel better about it? Perhaps because I know it could go away tomorrow? Lately it's been two steps forward and one step back. I guess that's better than the other way around.
    Well, at least I'm not long goog or ibm - then I'd know it was down again.

     

    Tomorrow is another big day in terms of earnings. In the morning some of the majors include ge, hon, dhr, unp, slb, pep, pm, cmg, ms and gs.

     

    Good luck all.
    16 Apr, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    Seeing you have a background in the grains, what is your thoughts on (JJG)? It's had a nice run up recently. This is out of my element, but I find it very interesting. Thanks.
    16 Apr, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    CW - This time of the year it's a weather market - and that will last for the next several months. Grains always carry a premium for adverse weather every spring; this year is no different. It's very early in the planting season and anything can happen, but it's better to bet on weather being good than bad, which it is about seven years out of ten - so odds are the jjg will fall. Trouble is in those three years the upside is much greater than the downside in the 7 years so the market lives and dies by the forecasts and sometimes gets very erratic.

     

    Many in the ag trade refer to the April-June period as the silly season since the market reacts to weather, but unless you can't get the crops planted, it really has not much impact on final yields which are largely determined in July and August. I've seen great planting weather turn into miserably hot July and Augusts and late planted crops do well when the weather is cooperative in the summer. I always tell people that they should leave the ag futures market alone; most lose money.

     

    Even though I was very successful (able to retire at 41) I never played the weather - that's a good way to lose money. You have no advantage in a weather market, everyone gets the same forecast at the same time. Or more often than not, find out the weather forecast was wrong at the same time. Mostly I traded spreads, either inter or intra market with only my final couple years trading outright since the fundamentals were so compelling. Believe me, that rarely happens - and certainly can never happen to a casual observer.

     

    Regarding the jjg - I'd leave it alone. I just looked at the fact sheet and the sponsor isn't transparent how the jjg is made up. And the individual etf's, ie, corn or soyb is made up of both old and new crop with months changing - don't like that either.

     

    If you feel like you have to do something I suggest looking at buying put options in the jjg - the midpoint of the bid/ask has a low implied volatility. I'd prefer an August or September contract - perhaps August will start trading once April comes off the board. If you can buy something like the Aug 48 put for a reasonable sum, less than $1, it offers a decent risk/reward, but be warned, those options are illiquid.
    16 Apr, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    early earnings reports on the names u mentioned here seem to be ok this AM

     

    (GE) beat
    (PEP) beat
    (HON) beat
    (CMG) great revenue beat
    (DHR) record 1st Q
    (UNP) beat
    (PM) miss
    (SLB) beat
    (MS) beat
    (GS) beat

     

    (MS) & (GS) numbers may bode well for (LAZ)- a name in the space that I like also..

     

    (SNDK) announced mid Q guidance on margins and stock is up 9%

     

    That has impacted (MU) which is in the same space with NAND memory and it is up 4.4%
    in early trading

     

    (IBM) is weighing on the dow as it is accounting for 50-60 dow points alone.

     

    I didn’t think the (GOOG) numbers were bad at all

     

    Enjoy !!
    17 Apr, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD, FG

     

    That's 1 step forward net :).

     

    The last dip had no known trigger -- that makes for less certainty.

     

    I can't believe I managed to miss buying in before the bounce back... again. I did a day trade that caught some. I'm okay flowing through the rest of the volatility but need to get some sense of this.

     

    Are earnings good enough... that if the market it's prior highs, it will no longer be overvalued? If not, there's be another dip & buy opportunity. If so... meltup?
    17 Apr, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    First it must be added that this is only 1 days worth of earnings reports - many more to follow..

     

    so drawing any conclusion for this is premature..

     

    hard to say how the masses will "spin" and then react to the data ...

     

    I'll go back to my original thoughts & comments

     

    -- if we are in fact on track for -$120-$122 in S & P earnings - then putting a multiple of 16- 17 gets us to S & P 1975- 2000.

     

    get multiple expansion and we go much higher..

     

    That of course is not to say we will get there in a straight line ---

     

    and how we get there is the 64,000 question.. :)

     

    Pick your spots and invest when u feel the stock is in your buy range -- don't be swayed by the noise from the crowd with a "short term" view ..
    17 Apr, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    F&G - I hope you looked at how the numbers were "beat". If because of one time charges or a reduced tax rate the number isn't as good as it looks.

     

    I woke up late this morning - 5:30am my time - early by most standards but not early enough to get a really good look at the earnings reports. I plan to spend a long time on them and the conference calls this weekend.
    17 Apr, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    On the "dip" ahead of earnings you should have bought some call options; I made that suggestion and it has worked out well for me so far.

     

    Be patient. There's nothing yet to suggest 2014 earnings will be above expectations for the year. My guess is we really won't know that until the Q2 figures are issued. So far I see mostly in line earnings - perhaps a penny or so beat - but not much in terms of raising guidance. And there's also nothing to suggest the economy will be better than assumed.
    17 Apr, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    I've never bought an option yet. So I'm watching and learning...and taking it slowly. I did get my account set up for them. From what you said, the advantage your using them for at this point, is to limit the downside risk in case the market does a correction after assessing earnings...?

     

    Interesting... tending to stay in the trading range for now... I'll keep "patience" in mind :).
    17 Apr, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    Fair enough your points are well taken

     

    I can only add that I've heard the 'quality " argument on earnings since 2010 and here we are now with all time record profits..

     

    I find it hard to comprehend that its all "smoke & mirrors " for the entire recovery ..

     

    As i mentioned - this story can be "spun" to make a case either way ,, and we just might see decent earnings -- and a so so market - its happened before ..
    17 Apr, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    i think what u express there is a general feeling of investors that have been around a while -- a general feeling of accepting the gains , but not getting giddy.

     

    and always looking over our shoulders -- and in my view that's a good thing

     

    pretty strong day today - banks were weak, but i liked the action in biotechs -- the bigger names like (CELG) (AMGN) (GILD) , etc,

     

    also energy names remain solid --

     

    :)
    16 Apr, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Barclays cuts targets for offshore drillers, sees potential 40% downside

     

    Offshore drillers Atwood Oceanics (ATW +0.5%), Diamond Offshore (DO +2.4%), Rowan (RDC +0.9%), Ensco (ESV +0.8%) and Transocean (RIG +1.5%) are higher today even as Barclays cuts its price targets on the stocks.
    The firm thinks near-term risk is skewed to the downside following a series of negative fleet status reports from the offshore drillers recently and concern for dayrate pressure in most offshore markets; if conditions deteriorate further, the firm would expect underlying asset values to decline further (NAVs declined 16%-plus following the financial crisis and 8% after Macondo), suggesting potential 40% downside before ultimate NAV support takes hold

     

    (RIG) and (ESV) slammed again today, on a strong day in energy.
    16 Apr, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    The above from April 8th; explains some of the weakness in the group. These stocks look horrible.
    16 Apr, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Another strong day for Energy, and another - 2% for (ESV), (RIG) very weak too. Think I'll stick with (PDS) When you see a sector like energy thats absolutely on fire -- and your stock is tanking; thats not a good thing.
    17 Apr, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Krusty, anyone

     

    Thoughts on (PDS)?

     

    In the chart it's made a clear breakout into Stage 2. Is it too far into stage 2 to chase? Thoughts on fundamentals for the long term buy (15 years)?
    17 Apr, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    L,
    IMO if you are looking for the LT-- u buy the "cadillacs" (ESV) (RIG) , (DO),etc.

     

    what is happening to them now is short term noise.. they have solid div yields that aren't going away anytime soon..

     

    (PDS) has broken out and looks higher.. off an upgrade from Morgan Stanley --- up 16% in the last month --- it may be a great "trade' -

     

    its based in Canada -- i don't follow it enough to suggest holding it for years..

     

    Good Luck
    17 Apr, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    Gold tanking here, short gold futures in size.
    17 Apr, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    A good part of today's strength - and certainly the move to new highs for the day - was due to less worries about Ukraine on reports the situation was agreed to be monitored. RSX - the Russian etf is up 4%. My guess is spy will trade higher and settle today around the 187 strike.

     

    If the S&P 500 can move above the 1872.5 area, last weeks highs, more buying will come it. That level coincides roughly with 187.20 spy.
    17 Apr, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    agree with you ,, the short term indicators i look at suggest there is more "energy" left in this rally ..
    17 Apr, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    (MBT) which I am long; up 8% now
    17 Apr, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    For the uneducated; (RIG) and (http://bit.ly/Gztvwv) are deepwater drillers.

     

    (http://bit.ly/1qPUOuU) is a land - based driller based in Canada. They will benefit greatly from higher Nat Gas prices, oil sands and the Keystone pipeline, which I expect to ultimately be approved. The stock would blast off on the news, along with the entire Canadian energy sector, which one catalyst why I am focused there with 4 energy names.

     

    I never, ever, ever buy a stock purely because a high dividend yield. Often a high yield is kept in place to support a weak underlying business or sector. The price falls, falls, falls, then the dividend is often cut, as a generalization, if the underlying business is not sound.

     

    Just my thoughts, but one has to ask when the (http://bit.ly/InltIn) is rallying like crazy, even the broader (http://bit.ly/VMT3kW) services sector is strong, and these stocks can hardly rally off 52 week lows, what the issue must be.

     

    People of course can do what they want.
    17 Apr, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4080) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1qPZzEY

     

    Interesting at this wonderful price on (RIG) the number of insider buys.

     

    Zero.
    17 Apr, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Thanks for the energy feedback on all... I'll do my DD!!

     

    BTW, if you edit a post, a trick I use, is to copy the post to clipboard right before I post the edit. Then if SA messes up my links, I can edit again, repaste the same edited comment (from clipboard)... and this time the symbols in brackets and links stay in tact. ...then I mutter at the programmer for a moment, and get a snack.
    17 Apr, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5130) | Send Message
     
    Oils strong again today - energy has been the beneficiaries of money rotating into that sector

     

    my fav's
    (CXO) & (WLL) made new highs - both up over 25% THIS year in a flat market --- (PXD) up $17 this week..

     

    I wouldn't chase here - be patient there may be better entry points - all LT plays

     

    add when others are throwing them away as these were added when E & P oil was a dirty word..
    17 Apr, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4150) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - New Chapter #18:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I have a question on long term investing to start it off.

     

    The full moon is passing... so moving on....
    18 Apr, 09:29 AM Reply Like
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