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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #20 220 comments
    Apr 24, 2014 9:55 AM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #20. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #19: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/2851123-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-19?v=1398346242

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared!: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (220)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Welcome to our newcomers! You'd added some interesting ideas :) !!

     

    Lead off questions...
    -- How are earnings looking?
    -- What tack for long term investing are you taking in this market; stocks, preferreds, worth a buy right now? Others lined up to buy on the next dip (the research takes time, so figuring it out before the dip works...)
    24 Apr 2014, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (493) | Send Message
     
    Can't speak for others, but acting as the anecdotal relating petri-dish for the median income worker on these boards, I think preferreds in general are pricier than I like at the moment.

     

    Kind of had to sell stuff - Woman's car broke down again on Monday. And then I looked at the credit card after the repairs (this has been happening every month so far this year) and noticed I have $2 before it's maxed out. So took enough profits in preferreds and a couple of cefs to pay it back down to zero tomorrow.
    24 Apr 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (493) | Send Message
     
    I've got some down time after sorting out finances over the last couple of days.

     

    Does anyone know what steel mill(s) produces things like these? And if they are publically traded?

     

    http://bit.ly/1faVKZa

     

    http://bit.ly/1faVKZb

     

    I'm kind of serious. That evolved from being an amusing thought a month ago.
    24 Apr 2014, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    User,

     

    can't help u with this one ,

     

    BUT there are many blogs - some here on SA as a matter of fact , that specialize in the gloom & doom concept ,,

     

    They may have the answer :)
    24 Apr 2014, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (2675) | Send Message
     
    http://pcpipe.com

     

    What fun - living in a culvert. ;)
    24 Apr 2014, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    JBT

     

    priceless !!
    24 Apr 2014, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (493) | Send Message
     
    Dang it, JBT! I was all excited but don't see a stock ticker on their site!
    24 Apr 2014, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (2675) | Send Message
     
    (ARF) - Toronto Exchange, (NWPX) - Nasdaq.
    24 Apr 2014, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (493) | Send Message
     
    JBT and F&G,

     

    If either of you have some freetime, you might enjoy this:

     

    http://bit.ly/1fbIu6J

     

    Whilst I like to think I wouldn't have abandoned my farm to go to California to mine gold, I would like to think I would have been establishing contacts with various iron worker buddies to produce picks and shovels to sell to said miners. Thus, my original question above. :)

     

    You know, there are some really, really weird sub-cultures out there on the internet that don't take much digging to come across. I just like to think about how to profit off of them.
    24 Apr 2014, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (2675) | Send Message
     
    User,

     

    Thanks for the link - I don't have room to call people crazy, so I'll just say that's not how I plan my future... ;) If you've never seen the series "Doomsday Preppers", check it out. Interesting stuff.

     

    In re: the steel, I'd look elsewhere for that 'a-ha' product that will make tons going forward. Corrugated steel drain pipe is already used everywhere. I doubt the few bunkers they sell will make much of an impact in a company's stock price.

     

    Now, if you'd open up a business that sources the parts and contracts the labor, there's probably a niche market out there for you. Especially in the south (Arkansas, middle Tennessee, West Virgina in particular).

     

    I'd be worried about shortage of customers, though. You might sell a bunker here and there, but I can't imagine it being the sort of thing that could support someone...

     

    You can usually tell when someone's selling something of dubious worth when their webpage is very long on the intro page, has a lot of pictures, and a lot of bold statements in large font....

     

    Variety is the spice of life, and it takes all kinds. :)
    24 Apr 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1951) | Send Message
     
    I say stay as far away from them as possible : )
    24 Apr 2014, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (493) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, JBT and BSF. Lately I've been having too much fun with comments regarding weird ideas that may come across as annoying (still stick with what I've been doing), so I'm going to beg off for a while.

     

    "if you'd open up a business that sources the parts and contracts the labor, there's probably a niche market out there for you. Especially in the south (Arkansas, middle Tennessee, West Virgina in particular)."

     

    Found one for you! Although appears private and not open for investment :(

     

    http://bit.ly/1lLdp8y

     

    "You can usually tell when someone's selling something of dubious worth when their webpage is very long on the intro page, has a lot of pictures, and a lot of bold statements in large font...."

     

    Noooo!!! These things have practical value! Right?
    24 Apr 2014, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (2675) | Send Message
     
    Indeed. The air filtration system can handle natural, biologic, and nuclear events. Can't get much more practical than that. ;)
    24 Apr 2014, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (2675) | Send Message
     
    User,

     

    On looking for niche products that might make a good return, I did the same thing not too long ago. We got Bermudagrass invading our flower beds, and there is only ONE thing (besides fire, salt, Roundup (MON) or otherwise sterilizing the soil so nothing at all will grow there) that will selectively target it and kill it. I paid $66 for a quart of it! I immediately went looking for the manufacturer to see if they had a publicly traded stock. No dice.

     

    It was at one time public, but the employees bought the company and took it private. :(
    25 Apr 2014, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - To newcomers, we've moved onto a new Chapter #21. Come join us!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Apr 2014, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    I'll bring my comment from the last chapter here..

     

    Ugly response to the good earnings reports this morning--

     

    so , something to consider

     

    it may be a sign that the market is done going up for a while --
    24 Apr 2014, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    And, forwarding my reply:

     

    More horizontal consolidation, with market running in place and earnings going higher, compressing P/E's. Perfect.
    24 Apr 2014, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    great observation
    24 Apr 2014, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - It is an odd morning... started upbeat and dropped so much so fast... feels like the market is "tired."
    24 Apr 2014, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Its a very sweet morning, and not unexpected by me at all. Risk reduction going into May. (NFLX) (P) (YELP) (LNKD) (GMCR)

     

    Still short all 5, added to NFLX

     

    Heck, even (GILD) down.
    24 Apr 2014, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Good short calls, for the moment.

     

    "Risk reduction going into May."

     

    Have to disagree here. The selling of overpriced mo-mo's, while other sectors rise and overall market is stable or trends higher is not risk reduction. When risk reduction sets in, everything sells.
    24 Apr 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    Lets call it "high beta risk reduction"

     

    Check out the pending flood of IPO supply in the pipeline. Room needs to be made for these.
    24 Apr 2014, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    In response to South's comment on Chapter 19

     

    I agree the media begins rolling out the "triple top "

     

    and of course the "sell in May" and go away chants will now be everywhere..
    24 Apr 2014, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    F & G: I have never read a single sentence from a book about technical analysis. The S & P 500 chart looks fine to me, a series of higher low and highs over the past year.

     

    There is selling pressure in this 1880-1890 area. The recovery from the sell off this morning suggests to me that the bulls have more firepower but they really need to push above 1890 decisively.

     

    The rally off the March 2009 low is similar in many respects to the blast off on 8/20/1982. While it may not appear so now, the move from 109.16 to 113.02 was notable, particularly since volume had picked up considerably:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1rpnlrD

     

    By the end of 1982, the S & P 500 closed at 140.64, up 28.84% since 8/19/1982. The closing high before the 1987 crash hit was at 334.57 on 8/27/1987, up 206.49%.

     

    The percentage increase since 3/9/09 close of 676.53 to 1880 is 177.89% using this percentage increase calculator:

     

    http://bit.ly/1qXt7ys

     

    Normally, us Tennessee boys have to use our fingers for basic math computations but that is not possible with percentage increases.

     

    There was only one 10%+ correction between August 19, 1982 and the October 1987 crash, while the current move has had two, including the one back in the 2011 summer that came really close to 20%, plus one "dip" that approached 10%.

     

    Ed Yardini Charts:
    Figure 4 1982-1987
    http://bit.ly/1rpnonq
    24 Apr 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    South

     

    your comment :

     

    "There is selling pressure in this 1880-1890 area. The recovery from the sell off this morning suggests to me that the bulls have more firepower but they really need to push above 1890 decisively."

     

    says it all

     

    24 Apr 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1815) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    I did a short study about seasonal performance.

     

    http://bit.ly/1faOeO1

     

    Actually, the second half of the year has out performed for the last twenty years.
    24 Apr 2014, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    Extreme,

     

    Interesting --

     

    I've always had a laugh or two with the "sell in May" stuff,,

     

    One would hardly expect a LT investor to sell his/her portfolio in May then come back in two to three months time..

     

    Using the backdrop of a secular bull market - In my view, any correction --- whether it be the "sell in May " stuff or the "mid cycle election year" premise, would present an opportunity to pick up a bargain or two..

     

    The "rotation" that is in place , has already afforded a chance to nibble away here.
    24 Apr 2014, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    extremebanker - I'm not surprised because "sell in May" studies tell you to move back into the market either October or November, depending on the study looked at. In general, the six month period from November-April is stronger than the six months from May- October.

     

    http://onforb.es/QKITl3
    25 Apr 2014, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    And another I found particularly interesting.
    http://bit.ly/QKL9sF
    25 Apr 2014, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • Learner16
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    Extremebanker, Dancing Diva, this study by some mathematicians seems to say the opposite, maybe because it begins in 1915 and the cycle has changed since.

     

    http://bit.ly/1rsWon5
    25 Apr 2014, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    This year is progressing nicely; + 20 % YTD now M/M

     

    Short momo;
    Long Energy / Reits
    24 Apr 2014, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    In my haste to post this comment I didn't realize we had moved on to a new page. I'll repeat it since I think this is a potentially excellent investment if you have patience and you may not have seen it. Note I put it on at a $1.20 credit when gild was $72.40

     

    GILD - Consider a bull call spread risk reversal in the Jan 2016 options if you have patience.

     

    I just bought the Jan 2016 80 call, sold the 92.50 call and sold the Jan 55 put for a net credit of $1.20 - ie, took in $120 per position. This was an initial position and I intend to do more if gild pulls back near $70. Worst comes to worst I'm long gild $ 54. Best case make over $1300 per option spread. The reasonable options vol in the calls and fairly high put vol makes this attractive.

     

    If you do something like this, put in the order at the midpoint of each option and give them another 15 cents (5 cents per side). Make sure it's a limit order.
    24 Apr 2014, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    and as i replied there -- excellent risk/reward !
    24 Apr 2014, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    F&G and Others - Let me know if you take a stab at this trade and which options you chose. This way I can keep you posted if I see any issues.
    24 Apr 2014, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (948) | Send Message
     
    DD...
    Any similar ideas like that on (ISRG) I'm willing to buy large amount, haha I guess that is 1 put !! at 280.
    24 Apr 2014, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    I looked at it and in the Jan 2016 you can buy the 450 call and sell the 550 call and sell the 280 put and take in $2-3. But I don't like this as much as the gild play. Earnings in isrg are much harder to predict, the p/e is much higher and the weekly chart broke its uptrend awhile back. Theoretically you could make as much as $100 in the isrg play, but it's not one I'd personally do - I think it's more of a gamble.

     

    I don't think the implied volatility in the isrb put is high enough and if the market tumbles you could lose quite a bit when the vol climbs. The implied volatiity for the 55 put in gild is actually higher than the puts for isrg. Which stock do you think should have a higher vol?
    24 Apr 2014, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (948) | Send Message
     
    Well my personal opinion is that (ISRG) is one of the most undervalued companies in the market so....

     

    But I get your point.
    24 Apr 2014, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Yair - I've never studied the fundamentals of this company so you could well be correct, but it's just not the type of stock I usually buy. My whole investment philosophy is to never consider how much I can make but how much I can lose. That stock is too hard for me and I can't evaluate my risk.

     

    Just so you know - my investment goal is capital preservation while having some fun and giving my brain a work out.
    24 Apr 2014, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1951) | Send Message
     
    Yair, nephew doing surgical residency says the da Vinci is here to stay and very important for surgery. Their bad quarter with lower earnings, just reported, may be due to the spate of lawsuits against the company for patients getting injured. Perhaps the injuries are due to "operator error" and not so much the fault of the machine. So the stock could recover, but fell a little more today.

     

    He mentioned that a doctor is required to get specialized training in order to do robotic surgery. This is after they do 4 years of undergrad, then 4 years of med school, 4 years in a surgical residency...plus any other further specialization means he could have 5 more years to go before being done.

     

    I'll let you know what else he says, as I've asked him some more questions. He hasn't operated with the da Vinci yet, but seems interested.
    24 Apr 2014, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    FWIW--

     

    (ISRG) found support @ 357 last July and 351 last dec..

     

    seems to be headed there
    24 Apr 2014, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    I'm curious what you all think about the (ROBO) ETF which has (ISRG) as one of it's largest holdings.

     

    I'm also curious what you guys think about (GOOG) as a robotics play - as they have made several robotics acquisitions including Boston Dynamics. Obviously, with (GOOG) it's a much less 'pure' play, but you have the 'sleep well at night' factor that goes with owning Google.

     

    Also, for the (ISRG) play, I have a question. I remember hearing (perhaps on the radio, I'm not sure) that medical equipment was being sold far cheaper overseas and that American hospitals were essentially being ripped off. First, is that true? Second, if it is, does it apply to (ISRG) or is it confined to only specific medical devices? Third, is there any political/legislative risk to that (e.g. where healthcare legislation sets price controls for medical equipment)?
    25 Apr 2014, 05:24 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Yair - chart support is around $350. Why don't you just take a stab at selling a distant out of the money put if/when the stock falls to support? You can always put on the bull call spread portion later if you want.

     

    Near $350 the Jan2016 280 put should be around $28, the 250 put near $20. If you have extra cash in your account for the margin - and depending how the margin requirement is calculated by your brokerage firm - it could provide a reasonably good alternative to a high div stock.

     

    BTW - if your brokerage house charges a lot for options and it doesn't provide the "greeks", consider opening an account with optionshouse.com. While my primary broker is Fidelity, I use Options House almost exclusively for trading options (with the exception of covered calls). They're easier to use for multi-leg strategies, provide greeks in a nice format and are low cost. I wouldn't use them exclusively, though, since their platform goes down once or twice a year (for 10-30 minutes) and their reliability for an active trader isn't great.
    25 Apr 2014, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (948) | Send Message
     
    I use interactive brokers everything seems to be fairly priced.

     

    I haven't decided how I'm playing it yet! Just hoping it goes lower :)
    25 Apr 2014, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1951) | Send Message
     
    all good questions, BC but I don't know the answers.

     

    (ISRG) continues to fall.

     

    Maybe due to the earnings miss, and the negative aspect from the lawsuits.

     

    I am long (GOOG) but would not invest in (ISRG) just yet.
    25 Apr 2014, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    (MSFT) another nice quarter-
    http://bit.ly/1rqf7Q0

     

    & not in the so called tech "bubble"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    FCF% over 10% with a nice div yield

     

    -- they just make $
    24 Apr 2014, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    A bit of comment on transparency in posting, as it has been a topic of conversation.

     

    I have been pretty candid with my short term trade entries, clearly timestamped. I will continue to post short term ideas, as well as longer term focused investments, as they come up -- but I will no longer post any prices, as I have neither the time nor desire to engage in an adversarial commentary about my trading, if it was actually done at $50 or $51. Its irrelevant to the quality of the trading or investment idea, on which I welcome discussion.

     

    To those who say it goes to credibility, sorry I cannot help in that regard. That can be evaluated from the quality of the ideas I put forth, and the resulting investment performance afterwards.

     

    Shorter term trading, which includes certainly any shorting, is very activist by definition due to the volatility. I often trade "around" positions, buying back part of shorts on dips, and reselling on rallies. It's simply far too busy to post every change.

     

    Neither on these short term trades, will I ever post exits when they happen. Might be much later, when I get a chance. Exits on shorts will likely happen in whole or part on high volatility days, and you won't find me on SA during those times, as I am very active. You can assume if I hold shorts and they have a big move down, I am locking some in. That's the way I handle short positions.

     

    I remain for now with my 5 momo stock shorts I have recently posted, and number of core longs I have posted some time ago and anticipate holding for some time, based on the current information. So far most positions are performing well at this time.

     

    Best wishes to all investors and sincerely hope my ideas are of some benefit to others.
    24 Apr 2014, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    This mornings Tech weakness is far from random, and yesterday's (FB) action was the key. FB's inability to hold a rally on pretty strong numbers, and other unrelated stocks like (http://bit.ly/NmmQ2w) having difficulty rallying in spite of blowout numbers, speaks to the (lack of ) high beta risk appetite currently present.

     

    (http://bit.ly/t2V5me) rallying last night and now down, is another example.

     

    These are leader stocks, and they offer clues to the broader risk appetite for the (http://bit.ly/1msti4Q) and (http://bit.ly/JjWCE4). One needs to always watch the "leader" stock in each category.

     

    If (http://bit.ly/zmUlk5) cannot rally on strong metrics, why would one buy others in the group?

     

    For whatever reason people will debate about, money is flowing out of these groups, and I expect this to continue.

     

    Notice I did not mention (http://bit.ly/pFSoX2) because I would classify it differently now. It is now a value play, like Microsoft, which it is developing into characteristics of. That's all fine, but for my purposes it has become less of a leader for tech risk I pay attention to.

     

    The action currently reinforces my momo stock short position, and I may look to expand my short book if market action signals it.

     

    Note at the present time I do not see broader risk off action as yet in the (SPX).

     

    Short (http://bit.ly/9SVvLk) (http://bit.ly/u9Ee77) (http://bit.ly/uGyT1O) (http://bit.ly/RneJ45) (http://bit.ly/njCbAY).
    25 Apr 2014, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    25-Apr-14 08:54 ET

     

    LNKD

     

    LinkedIn target lowered to $185 from $225 at Wedbush (171.59 )
    25 Apr 2014, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Netflix: FBR Capital discusses Net Neutrality Change and HBO/Amazon (AMZN) deal, noting both developments are negative thematically for NFLX (353.50 )
    FBR Capital discusses Net Neutrality Change and HBO/Amazon (AMZN), noting 1) a WSJ report that the FCC will consider new rules permitting broadband operators to strike deals for preferential content treatment, and 2) HBO's deal to license some library content to Amazon Prime. Firm says a common thread is that both developments are negative thematically for Netflix, which they rate Market Perform, although they are unlikely to have any material, financial impact anytime soon. The net neutrality ruling is also potentially a modest thematic problem for TV network content companies, where their ratings are constructive.

     

    Colour on (NFLX) ....
    25 Apr 2014, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Today's downturn - over politics, or just got to top of SPY trading range again?

     

    If it were politics, I'd expect a more steady, rapid decline. On the other hand, EM markets are going down too this time.

     

    (I've been traveling... so haven't responded to several PMs... I'll get a chance today or over the weekend :). )
    25 Apr 2014, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    Look at a YTD SPX chart. A lot of horizontal consolidation without much of anything going on. This is good new for value folks because each day that this occurs, while earnings keep advancing, market P/E's contract.
    25 Apr 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH - a bit of both politics and top of range. And regarding em's - that's partly politics and partly really lousy action this week from Asia. China was down hard and Korea, which had been quite strong, was down just about every day this week. I know most people don't think of Korea as an emerging market, but it has a large weighting in the eem etf.

     

    And if the late action in spy yesterday was any indication, traders got too complacent/bullish. A few minutes before the close they took the weekly near the money spy puts down below a 6 implied volatility. Usually they are closer to 9 by late Thursday. I bought some 188 puts at 53 cents just in case and I wish I'd bought more. I'm out of half and will probably sell the rest by the close (or short some puts).
    25 Apr 2014, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    My comment from yesterday@ 10:00 am

     

    Ugly response to the good earnings reports this morning--

     

    so , something to consider

     

    it may be a sign that the market is done going up for a while --

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I sold at the money calls on some positions - bought a couple of protective puts on LT positions --- so far so good
    25 Apr 2014, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    I've covered (GMCR) at a modest profit, and as I sold puts against my (P) short last night, I'm effective out of that one too. Focus is (YELP), (NFLX) (LNKD) shorts . Trading (IWM) from short side too.
    25 Apr 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Plan would be to next sell puts against part of above shorts.
    25 Apr 2014, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Doing some light covering here, Long (GILD)
    25 Apr 2014, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1951) | Send Message
     
    (CELG) is doing ok, I'm staying long (GILD) too.

     

    How is your gold doing? Last year, I made a lot of money on (NUGT) and (DUST), playing the unrest over Syria. Would not do it now, as just when you think you know which way gold is going, something happens.
    25 Apr 2014, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BSF

     

    Are you buying today on the dip?

     

    I'd like to not miss buying in this time --. I have such poor timing on the bottom though. I'm thinking to wait till much later in the day...
    25 Apr 2014, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1951) | Send Message
     
    L, during the last dip I bought a lot, so I'm watching for a bargain today but haven't jumped on anything yet.

     

    If (FB) goes low enough, I might add to that.

     

    If you haven't bought much, then pick some of the best companies to sample. Be careful of anything with a PE ratio over say 20, best to focus on stocks with PE ratios under that. An example is (LMT). Still a low PE, great company. Pays a dividend too. PEG ratio under 2....I get all these numbers off of CNBC.com, look up the ticker, then click on the earnings tab.

     

    Another great company is (GILD). Forward PE ratio is 16, PEG is 0.51 (best is when PEG is under 1) and earnings per share growth of over 50%. If you don't own this one, I would buy it now. (CELG) is good too.

     

    How are you doing with the Reits? Just checked....they are mostly up today. (O) (OHI) (HCP).

     

    Consider (KKR) (BX) (MAIN). All of these are on sale today, and are good companies.

     

    (WMT) (MAT) (GE) (PG) (LO) (CVS) (VZ) are all great portfolio stocks.

     

    It's a good day to buy, I'm looking at (LO) and adding to some existing positions.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    I've traded around the gold short, getting no-where in general. Still think it has a big breakdown coming. Main position is September puts.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Locked in about half the shorts; + 15% gains. Not bad for a week's work
    25 Apr 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Congrats!
    25 Apr 2014, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Do you have more general views and ideas to share on what's going on?
    25 Apr 2014, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    L;

     

    I think we do better to think of a market of stocks; or sectors, not a "stock market". My results have improved lately, trying to not have a "market view", which you will notice is missing from my comments for the most part.

     

    I'm cautious, but substantially net long right now. Buying the dips, selling the rips, (AAPL) likely goes higher with a split coming, why not buy some, and (GILD) too?

     

    Think its a stock pickers market.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Added (GILD), market weight position
    25 Apr 2014, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Long (AAPL)
    25 Apr 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Anybody buying anything? I did lightly, picking up some aal and cov - initial positions. Both had decent earning reports. Took partial profits on cni.

     

    I wouldn't be surprised by the way the market is trading if we close on the lows; just a feeling.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    (TAN) and (WWAV) are on my watch list. They're down today (and I missed the bottom), but looking at their charts, seems worth waiting till their lower in their trading range...

     

    I haven't done enough looking into BSF's specifics, so I'd like to add some indices, just to get more $ into the market...

     

    I'm thinking a sell off will happen nearer the end of the day, to avoid holding over the weekend in case the Ukraine stuff heats up.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    Looking at my portfolio today, I can summarize what is working as follows:

     

    GE, Unilever and Apple are bucking the downtrend and moving up. GIS and NVS just moved slightly into positive territory a few minutes ago.

     

    Utility stocks are moving up (XLU). One of the most hated utility stocks is Exelon (EXC) which has moved from a $27.39 close on 12/31/13 to over $36 today.

     

    A few REITs, which are showing positive correlation with bonds on most though not all down days, are moving up, including O and OHI.

     

    Exchange traded bonds and equity preferred stocks are showing gains, as are several bond CEFs that I own.

     

    BDCs are fractionally up or down, with some now selling below their net asset value per share including AINV. PNNT is close to its last reported NAV per share.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    South ,
    also note-- (RIG) had a nice move yesterday and is hanging in there today . , maybe the selling in that one is done --

     

    great yield & the div may be increased to $3

     

    another is (MSFT)
    25 Apr 2014, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Moderate losses across the board, save for utilities and Big Oil:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/17L...
    25 Apr 2014, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    F & G: The path of least resistance is probably down. The 1880-1890 level looks like a strong upside resistance level to me. Any movement into that range triggers knee jerk type selling.

     

    I am not concerned by these downturns so far this month. I am using them primarily to analyze my portfolio design which is supposed to insulate me from about 75% of a 1% or greater daily decline in the S & P 500 (preservation of capital emphasis).

     

    I would start to be a tad concerned when and if the S & P 500 takes out its ongoing series of higher lows and highs over the past year or so. That would require a move below 1815 set on 4/11/14. The 200 day SMA is way down at around 1771. I would probably lighten up some on a 5% decline below the 200 day SMA in the S & P 500.

     

    For now, I am just studying asset classes and sectors showing negative correlations to the stock market's down days, as well as particular securities outside of those sectors bucking the downtrend or showing a weak positive correlation with stock declines greater than 1%.
    25 Apr 2014, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    S:

     

    Absolutely no indication of any new trend. Market has barely tested its last high. SPX still above both 50-day and 200-day EMA. In essence, these oscillations show little indication outside of noise, so far.

     

    The entire year has been marked by continual horizontal consolidation, with still a minor uptrend intact. There's not even anything to talk about short term unless the SPX would break meaningfully below 1815, and then, it would have to breach 1742 to instill real concerns.
    25 Apr 2014, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    I agree with your analysis that the 1814 level has some 'meaning" as a support level --

     

    A breach of 1814 area - puts out the caution flag , and may bring us down to the 200 day MA @ 1771 , & if that fails it will spark all kinds of "bear " talk.. and flush out a lot of weak hands..

     

    I will give the market a little more slack,and target 1735 (the Feb low) as my "line in the sand" , that now coincides with 50 wk MA @ 1750..

     

    A break there and a red flag comes out ..

     

    So from your commentary we are pretty much on the same page ...

     

    One step at a time.. ;)

     

    25 Apr 2014, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    S:

     

    Agree.

     

    My point was mainly that the market has been so placid for so long that even minor day-to-day volatility brings about all kinds of new dialogue and mostly-negative predictions that are rendered meaningless as soon as the lens of view on the market is opened up to a YTD (or longer) view.
    25 Apr 2014, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to know; what others are actually doing positionally, today to take advantage of these opportunities.
    25 Apr 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, Tack, SG, Everyone

     

    So if I'm trying to increase from my 40% in the market... would you see today as good to buy into indices (SPY, IWM) maybe 10% more?

     

    I seem to always wait for that bigger drop... then miss the trading range move back up.

     

    Ultimately, I need to get more individual shares including prefers... but in the meantime... is this a buy the dip day (even if it comes down more, eventually it will come up again...)?

     

    Thanks for translating the general expertise to specific thinking :). I'm trying to gather info, to add to my own style of how I'd process things :).
    25 Apr 2014, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - M

     

    Same question I just posted... though more succinctly.
    25 Apr 2014, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to know too. Very generalized. Like to steer the conversation to more specific calls for today.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Vang's (VYM) ETF is also only .3% down today. I think it's the dividend large cap.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Honestly, I'd say that for an broad index fund, trying to time and trade them on a daily basis is a complete waste of time. It's not vital whether the index goes a little lower or higher in mere days after you buy; it's only important that it perform well over many months or years. All this "attempt at "perfect timing" is splitting hairs for no real purpose.

     

    That said, in this market, I'd rather deploy money to specific sector funds, or individual issues, than to the market, at large. Energy, commodities and emerging markets look good. Also, convertible-bond and floating-rate funds could be added to offset equities.

     

    And, if you pick investments with good yields, it's far more important to be collecting and compounding those than it is to delay and debate whether the market is going to go slightly lower or higher. Nobody can make that call. That's why you must believe in compounding results over time, not making brilliant buy points.

     

    What happens, more often, is that people's cash sits there doing nothing, while they vacillate. Over time, this 'dead" money becomes very costly. And, now, with interest on cash at basically zero, it's never been more expensive not to be invested in some manner.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    TACK: I would only make some observations about what is happening this month:

     

    1. The excessively valued momentum Nasdaq names are vulnerable to significant 20% or greater declines.

     

    2. The overvalued Russell 2000 index has been and will likely continue to be weaker than the S & P 500 on down days. Today the RUT is down more than twice as much as the SPX. I have pared my small cap exposure some based on valuations.

     

    3. Resistance in the 1880-1890 range is strong and will be difficult to pierce significantly anytime soon.

     

    4. The market is still in an uptrend.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    That's a reasonable comment for the long term investor, alluding to the "market of stocks" I believe, more so than "stock Market".

     

    I would add on a day like today, look what is strong on the board, as a clue might have buying support. I bought (AAPL) and (GILD) for that reason. (And solid companies as well)
    25 Apr 2014, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    I've been posting my trades - but it's small potatoes so far. Bot a little aal, cov - new positions; good earnings. Lightened cni, brkb. Sold some weekly puts bought yesterday.

     

    And while I agree that we shouldn't think of it as "the market", but rather individual stocks - since we're at the top of range and no reason to break out, I'd rather wait before doing any size.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    S:

     

    Yes, the recent blow-off in mo-mo's, wherever they were found, is a very beneficial event for the market. The fact that this has occurred while barely noticed by the major indices is very positive, IMO. Money has moved toward undervalued issues/sectors, just as one would hope, rather than just fleeing.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T,

     

    That's makes good sense.

     

    On "convertible-bond and floating-rate funds" do you have 2-3 names, you'd think are good adds for today? You've posted ideas over time, but I haven't dug enough in, so a couple names today to focus on would be good. This is a sector/type where I've never bought, so I'm very fuzzy.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Lomah - no one can tell you whether it's a good time, but if you're uncomfortable holding a lot of cash do a little bit. To buy 10% in one day seems extreme; perhaps do 5% in the spy and/or perhaps sell put options in stocks you want to own.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    Some to look check out at http://bit.ly/o4ngfR:

     

    (NCV)
    (AGC)
    (CHI)
    (PFL)
    (TSLF)
    (AIF)
    (VVR)
    (PHD)
    (JRO)
    25 Apr 2014, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I own VYM (Vanguard High Dividend ETF), and it has done well since my purchase at $47.61, discussed briefly in a 3/6/12 post. The expense ratio is just .1%; and I bought it commission free in my Vanguard brokerage account. The Vanguard ETFs can also be bought commission free at TDAmeritrade currently, provided the investor first signs up for that firm's commission free ETF trading program.

     

    Higher quality stocks, which are rationally priced and pay dividends, are doing much better than those selling at excessive valuations. OEF, an ETF for the S & P 100, is doing slightly better than SPY which is doing a lot better than QQQ (Nasdaq 100) and IWM (Russell 2000).

     

    On a day like today, I may enter a small order to buy the BDC PNNT which I previously sold at $11.93 last December. The last reported net asset value per share was $10.8 as of 12/31/13. PNNT has not yet reported results for the first quarter, so I do not know whether the NAV went up or down.

     

    PNNT Dividend History-Nasdaq.Com
    http://bit.ly/1rtWmLx

     

    At a total cost per share of $10.85, and based on the current quarterly dividend of $.28 per share, the yield is about 10.32%.

     

    Since I have had 5 junk bonds called and redeemed in the past two weeks, I would just view a 100 share purchase of that BDC as a replacement for one $1,000 par value bond junk bond.

     

    Another possibility might be ROOF, an ETF for small cap REITs but I need to think more about that one since I already own several of its holdings.

     

    I generally move very, very slow, consistent with what I call my turtle style of investing.
    25 Apr 2014, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    L,
    I don't use indices at all as part of my portfolio strategy, so I cant help u there..

     

    if u have targeted a specific stock - examine how much u want to allocate to that specific name then divide into two or three parts..

     

    trying to pick the exact bottom,& when the stock will then "turn" is next to impossible --

     

    use charts and try to put the odds in your favor when selecting entry points ..

     

    For clients that haven't been in the market - i may nibble away here on the names i have been talking about as they all have a LT perspective -

     

    For those that have been in the market and got in these same names at much lower prices there is nothing do to - other than MAYBE put on selected protection..
    25 Apr 2014, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    Are there 2-3 that's top your list? And why?

     

    What do I need to be looking for? Nav at a discount, but what about it?

     

    I did spend time on CEF connect a few weeks ago, but didn't really get a sense of buys to make... Even in prefers it seemed toppy... I think I'm just unclear how to look at this sector... (What probably seems completely obvious to you, is probably the stuff I have no clue of at all, to even look up.)

     

    I really don't want to buy and watch it go down when ZIRP ending worries appear. I know you're not worried about that, but it will bug me to no end, and I do think it will show up again this summer as a dip in rate-related stuff. (Right or wrong, gotta go with my gut...)

     

    ----

     

    For instance:

     

    (NCV) is $10.33 with 10.4% yield.

     

    But it's 52 week low is 8.69.
    It's been steadily climbing... which could be momentum going up. Or could be that it will go down with the rest of high yield when they get hit and it will be a long ride down that the yield won't help much. (You're good at getting out when it starts to need to be done - but I don't have that skill yet at all.) So I need them to be solid ideas for a long time to come.

     

    I probably don't have my head wrapped around this well... so feel free to explain :).

     

    Also, what else would I want to look at, to decide this is a good preferred purchase? Vs. a bad purchase that's going to burn me?
    25 Apr 2014, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • memshu
    , contributor
    Comments (578) | Send Message
     
    south gent

     

    thank you for your nice ideas - you are a veritable fount of them!

     

    i'm actually up for the day - and the week - and watching from safe heights the slaughter in the momoland

     

    what a beautiful catastrophe

     

    i broke my teeth trying to short these bstrds in november/december when they last appeared to break
    so, chastened by that experience, when i saw them break again this time - i just didn't have the bronze to short them

     

    this business takes big balls, maybe 2 sizes bigger than mine!
    25 Apr 2014, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1815) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    You might need to take time and write out your specific investing goals and strategy. I find it very helpful to put things in writing. Doesn't have to be long or complicated. Questions you may need to answer:

     

    1. Am I a trader or longer term investor or both?
    2. Am I a contrarian or trend investor?
    3. How much decline am I comfortable with?
    4. What will make me anxious or nervous?
    5. Do I want to focus on income or growth?
    6. How will I manage systematic and non systematic risk?
    7. How often will I review my portfolio?
    8. Do I want to focus on funds or individual offerings?
    9. How much time do I have for investing or trading?
    10. What are my goals for investing?

     

    Personally, my goals for investing were to become independent and not have to rely on a job for income to live on. My growth investments are usually funds that are in an uptrend. My income investments are usually contrarian picks and individual securities. I also allocate a percentage of my portfolio (12% currently) to leveraged closed end funds that I buy and sell based on a 200 day average and relative strength. I can not stand severe declines in my portfolio. I know I will do something stupid like sell at the bottom. I use relative strength and moving averages to pick securities. You have to do what you are comfortable with!
    25 Apr 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    @extreme

     

    good stuff !!
    25 Apr 2014, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    Those CEF's are all high-quality funds, and I have held most of them in varying quantities for many years, now. Think about what 9%, 10% or 12% compounded for year after year adds up to, even if prices fluctuate in the interim. NAV at a discount is nice, if you can get it, but some funds sell at premiums all the time, whereas others oscillate. You have to examine the histories.

     

    Regarding NCV, for example, I don't sit around wondering if it has "momentum" or may be "toppy." I know I think convertible bonds are a good place to be in a bullish market, but one where rates may rise. And, I know NCV is a well-managed, quality fund, so I have a position. It's not a short-term trade; it's an investment, and one with a lot of yield, too. Unless it's price skyrocketed, dropping yields too low, I would not think to sell it anytime soon.

     

    "I really don't want to buy and watch it go down when ZIRP ending worries appear. I know you're not worried about that, but it will bug me to no end, and I do think it will show up again this summer as a dip in rate-related stuff. (Right or wrong, gotta go with my gut...)"

     

    This paragraph make it clear to me that you are beset with fear that the market, or a fund, could go down. You know what? Yep, they could, at any time, regardless of their past prices, whether higher or lower. There is no guarantee that you buy something and it only goes up. There's no one or power on Earth that can protect you from that possibility. If you cannot overcome the fear, and the unreasonable underlying expectation, (i.e., that prices only go up), then you will never be a successful investor.

     

    Firstly, and what's murdered so many would-be investors, is the mistaken belief, seemingly conjured up since 2008, that markets now have 50+%collapses, that have happened only twice in 85 years, every few years. This is a totally crippling notion. And, besides, if one puts together a balanced portfolio of common, preferreds and debt issues, the portfolio will perform well better than the indices.

     

    Your fundamental problem, I am absolutely certain, is not choosing the "right" fund; it's changing the way you look at investments. There's no chart or stats on any web site that makes a buy risk free or free from volatility. Sorry, ain't happenin'. You have to see past all that and believe in the funds ability to be productive, over time.

     

    Failure to be invested is far more damaging than having some issue you bought decline in price 20-30% for a few years, especially if it's still coughing up big yields throughout.

     

    Also, I don't "get out" in the sense of having some mystical crystal ball that tells me to rush to cash. As market conditions change and some issues or sectors dvance to the point where prices are so high that yields are too low, then I sell them and reinvest elsewhere. This is a continuous process, and it's not driven by making market-direction guesses. It's driven by the actual performance of the issues, themselves. And, if I am holding something solid, and it goes down a bunch, raising yields, I just add more.

     

    This was all stream of consciousness, and I'm not sure what else i can say, presently. But, I do think it's very important for you to take stock of yourself, your goals, time frame, risk profile, etc. before you just wander among stocks or funds. As the old saying goes, "if you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there."
    25 Apr 2014, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    E:

     

    Didn't read your post until after I composed mine. Excellent.
    25 Apr 2014, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack,

     

    "all high-quality funds"

     

    What makes them high-quality? That's what I'm trying to figure out.

     

    I have no idea how to assess these types of investments for myself. But you've mentioned them a lot and it's convincing, so I'm determined to figure it out :).

     

    Yields are nice and high yields are nice... but I want to make sure I understand why something so nice and beyond regular yields is being offered. i.e. the risks.

     

    -----

     

    "fear that the market, or a fund, could go down. "

     

    Not at all my problem. This went off the track of were I am or what my concerns are. I must not have worded it well.

     

    I'll try again. Stocks go up and down. I've been through 3 crashes and not sold anything nor lost a second of sleep. Sure I winced at the statement the first time after the crashes, and then filed it didn't worry at all.

     

    I'm associating yield issues with bond funds. I don't buy bond funds when they're about to go down for a long time. I've held bond funds for years, then sold when rates were (slowly, which is the norm, going up or down) and been very, very glad I did. A 10% yield is great but if it comes with a 30% decline 6 months later, it's a different assessment. It still may be an immediate buy, but it might not be... I don't know the long term movements of these types of investments AT ALL or influences on them, so that's part of what I'm trying to see.

     

    I'm sorry to be so elementary, but I've never had anyone mention this type of investment. ...while I've been sold bonds, CEF Blackrock bond fund, of course CDs and so on...
    25 Apr 2014, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - SG

     

    Ha, ha. I'm waiting for the day someone posts a non-high-risk holding, and you haven't owned it :) !

     

    I'll be switching from (SPY) and (IWM) back into my old vang standbys when I figure out the layouts. Vang limits the number of buy-ins and sells in a time period, so I went for these very liquid ones to get some money in, even though I hadn't done my homework yet. Haven't heard of OEF; I'll check it out.

     

    While BDCs are tempting to add at these low prices, very tempting... I put 2% total into 3 (PSEC), (TCAP), (TCRD) in Feb when they were much higher. I'm hesitating to put more % in, since I want my final plan to be diversified on types. Thoughts welcome...

     

    (TCAP) called me last night. They'd hired a company to check if stockholders' received the papers for upcoming meeting, and wanted info on the 3 proposals.

     

    That struck me as odd. Makes me wonder what the board is wanting to push.
    1) Elect/reelect the slate of 9 board members
    2) Allow TCAP to sell warrantes, options, and common stock at below NAV in the next year to raise capital quickly for loans to businesses. Claimed that it wouldn't dilute shares, and had no current plans to. But how could it not dilute?
    3) Advisory approval of board's compensation.
    4) Never mentioned this one - to do business as it comes up.
    Is this stuff all boilerplate?
    Text here: http://bit.ly/1imPGMN

     

    I own no REITs, so I'll look for more info on ROOF as it appears :).
    26 Apr 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    LMH: A company will sometimes hire a firm to call shareholders about voting. The reason may be that too few are voting. Since I routinely vote, I have not received one of those calls in a long time.

     

    I regard the compensation of the BDC managers to be extremely excessive in relation to the their pedestrian results. Generally they receive base compensation equal to 2% of total assets including amounts borrowed plus an incentive fee. A few charge less than a 2% base fee.

     

    http://bit.ly/1in3x5O

     

    None of the BDC managers are worth what they receive in my opinion.

     

    I always vote no both on the compensation approval and on the sell of shares below net asset value per share. The incentive of the managers is to sell as many shares as possible, regardless of dilution, to increase their compensation.

     

    OEF is an ETF for the S & P 100 which would be the largest of the large:

     

    Sponsor's website:
    http://bit.ly/1in39Eo

     

    I have owned it but have sold my shares.

     

    Vanguard has a Mega Cap ETF-MGC- that has 301 stocks and a .11% expense ratio.

     

    Over the past several months, I have been buying Vanguard stock ETFs in a ROTH IRA, using profits from bond redemptions and sales. I can buy small lots without having a commission impact my average cost per share and this also allows for cost effective averaging down. So, I have bought the following with those profits over the past several weeks:

     

    VEU: 20 shares
    MGC: 5 shares
    VWO: 10 shares
    VNQ: 10 shares

     

    Historically, I have used bonds, bond CEFs, a couple of stock CEFs, equity preferred stocks, BDCs and REITs in IRAs but have recently branched out into low cost stock Vanguard ETFs using profits from those other securities.

     

    The Vanguard restriction on ETF trading applies to trading a single ETF over 25 times in a 12 month period.

     

    "1 If you buy and sell the same Vanguard ETF in a Vanguard Brokerage account more than 25 times in a 12-month period, you may be restricted from purchasing that Vanguard ETF through your Vanguard Brokerage account for 60 days."

     

    http://bit.ly/RyKlXB

     

    I have a Vanguard Voyager brokerage account.

     

    I will use stock ETFs generally to raise and lower my stock allocation and sometimes to achieve diversification or to overweight a sector. In 2007, I sold every single stock ETF that I owned as part of a reduction in my overall stock allocation and eliminated or pared most stock mutual funds.

     

    Some of that is discussed in a June 2013 which has snapshots.

     

    Updated Stock Fund Table as of 6/6/2013
    http://bit.ly/11zov4i

     

    I started buying them back in 2009-2010.

     

    I started a sector shift into REIT common and preferred stocks starting last September. I will be publishing an update of that basket on Monday. I currently have 38 securities in that basket, including several that are owned by the small cap REIT ETF ROOF.

     

    I did not buy ROOF on Friday but will probably buy some shares in my mother's account. She is light on REITs. I am overweight in them already.

     

    I did buy PNNT last Friday at $10.84, but it will be a week or two before I discuss it since I am running about 2 weeks behind.
    26 Apr 2014, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH,

     

    "2) Allow TCAP to sell warrantes, options, and common stock at below NAV in the next year to raise capital quickly for loans to businesses. Claimed that it wouldn't dilute shares, and had no current plans to. But how could it not dilute?".

     

    I voted against this proposal. I too thought it would dilute share value....

     

    Any thoughts anyone on this proposal?
    26 Apr 2014, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    as:

     

    Yes, I have a comment:

     

    I have owned BDC's for many, many years. I invest in them, as a class, because they have provided consistent high income, along with excellent overall total returns.

     

    As regards both BDC expenses (management compensation) and share issuance, I don't even remotely try to substitute my uninvolved, lacking-visibility foresight for the management of each BDC I select. I make decisions on whether to be invested on what performance the BDC returns, net, for itself and its shareholders, not what it pays for that performance. If it performs, I'm happy; if it doesn't, I am not an investor. In neither case do I try to run the BDC by remote control.

     

    It's a routine annual-meeting item for virtually every BDC to request authority to sell shares below NAV. This is not an indication that they intend to be irresponsible and dilute shareholders for their own benefit. Anyone who thinks that this is the raison de etre and modus operadi of BDC's should simply avoid the class.

     

    BDC's need broad authority to issue shares because the strict regulation on distribution requirements and debt limits, as a percentage of assets, requires them to routinely replace equity, as they cannot retain earnings. And, it may be that at an appropriate time, as good investment opportunities exist, they find themselves either technically or in fact below NAV.

     

    They should pass up new quality investments and enter run-off mode simply because the market may have them temporarily mis-priced? I don't think so. Think about 2009. Lots of BDC's probably saw their prices well below actual book NAV's, and other assets and new investments were being offered at bargain-sale prices. They should be prohibited from raising capital to access these?

     

    It's simple to me. Either you like how a company -- BDC or any other -- is being run by its management and board of directors, and the performance they produce, or you don't, and you invest accordingly.
    26 Apr 2014, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    I wound up doing 6% :). Interesting idea to sell puts to gain access to going long, without risk of buying at a possible high point. ...limits losses. Hadn't thought of that.
    26 Apr 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    astarr66: TCAP sells at a substantial premium to its net asset value per share. The last reported net asset value per share was $16.1 as of 12/31/13:

     

    Page 61
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxsBJM

     

    I am not that familiar with this BDC, but believe that it is internally managed which avoids the potential conflict of interest issue. It may explain why this one sells at such a high premium to net asset value per share.

     

    If you have not so, I would recommend reading the risk summary section that starts at page 33 and ends at page 54.

     

    Normally the conflict of interest issue will be discussed in the Annual Report when the BDC is externally managed which is usually the case. An example would be PSEC which has a long history of selling shares at below net asset value per share. PSEC has a typical discussion of potential conflicts at pages 35-36 under the headings:

     

    " Potential conflicts of interest could impact our investment returns."

     

    and

     

    "Our incentive fee could induce Prospect Capital Management to make speculative investments."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/192kJIW.

     

    You will find that many of the externally managed BDCs in existence before 2007, the ones that pay their managers the base and incentive fees, will have a history of being unable to grow net asset value per share and will in many cases show a declining NAV per share over time. You can track that kind of information by going to the SEC's website and looking through the 10-Q filings.

     

    SEC Website:
    http://1.usa.gov/WiR8CG

     

    Many investors in BDCs may never check that information before investing which I view as important and material to an investment decision. An informed investor would be familiar with a BDC's history, including growth or lack thereof in net asset value per share; the dividend history including dividend cuts; and whether an externally managed BDC has sold shares at below net value and how often that has occurred in the past. If the excuse is to take advantage of good opportunities, why is the net asset value per share declining?

     

    Another factor to consider is the relative exposure to various investments: first lien, second lien, unsecured subordinated, preferred stock and common stock. A BDC with a heavy exposure to senior unsecured debt will be receiving more yield for those investments, but they would carry greater risks than senior lien debt particularly in a BK.

     

    The BDC that I bought last Friday, PNNT, has a high yield on its investments of over 13% but has a high weighting in subordinated debt and securities lower in the capital structure than debt, secured or unsecured. Many BDCs are going down farther in the capital structure to pick up yield given the longevity of the abnormally low interest rate cycle and the increased competition for loans.
    26 Apr 2014, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Extreme

     

    That's a great list!!

     

    I'm not actually unsure on my goals... just been very short on time making it hard to follow through. They are a lot of the important questions I've asked myself & been planning around.

     

    BTW, I'm not risk adverse. My post apparently came off differently than I meant. My follow up post to Tack, hopefully cleared that up.

     

    >>"My growth investments are usually funds that are in an uptrend. My income investments are usually contrarian picks and individual securities."

     

    Interesting pattern. So is using CEFs for trading. It'll be interesting to see your thoughts on this over time and how you identify & select...
    26 Apr 2014, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    Examples of net asset value per share trends for some BDCs:

     

    AINV:

     

    $8.3 on 9/30/13
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvH0w
    $15.59 on 6/30/06
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvH0y

     

    PSEC:
    10.73 on 12/31/13
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvIBx
    14.81 on 3/31/06
    http://1.usa.gov/14T5Cgo

     

    ARCC:
    $16.35 on 9/30/13
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvJVY
    $15.06 on 9/30/06
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvIRS

     

    TICC:
    $9.9 on 9/30/13
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvIRU
    $13.86 on 9/30/05
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvJW2

     

    HTGC:
    $10.42 on 9/30/13
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvIRY
    $11.24 on 6/30/06
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvIS0

     

    I currently own the first four. I have bought and sold HTGC.
    26 Apr 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • memshu
    , contributor
    Comments (578) | Send Message
     
    tack

     

    how does NCV manage to pay a dividend this high (11.4% of NAV)? and why can't we go out and buy this kind of yield ourselves without dealing with the fund fees?
    26 Apr 2014, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    Internally Managed BDCs:

     

    Main Street (MAIN):

     

    Net Asset Value Per Share
    $19.89 on 12/31/13
    Page 162
    http://1.usa.gov/1rtM7oC
    $12.85 on 12/31/07
    Page 67
    http://1.usa.gov/1rtM4ZS

     

    Increase in Net Asset value=54.79%

     

    MAIN Market Price 12/31/13=$14.01
    Market Price 12/31/13: $32.69
    Premium to NAV= 64%

     

    MAIN sold shares recently at $31.5.
    http://bit.ly/1rtM4ZU

     

    TCAP:

     

    Market price 12/31/07=$12.4
    Market price $12/31/13=$27.65

     

    NAV 12/31/07=$13.74
    Page 42 http://1.usa.gov/1rtM7oK
    NAV 12/31/13= $16.01

     

    Base and incentive fees and external management irrelevant? Does the market see it that way?

     

    I could not find a share issuance since 2/8/2012, when 3.7M shares were sold at $19:
    http://bit.ly/1rtM7oM

     

    Page F-26 TCAP Capital Raises
    http://1.usa.gov/1rtM4ZZ

     

    PSEC-Externally Managed
    Market price 12/31/07= $13.05
    Market price 12/31/2013= $11.22

     

    NAV Per Share 12/31/07:$14.58
    http://1.usa.gov/1rtM7oO
    NAV Per Share 12/31/13: $10.73

     

    Compare the share offerings of PSEC just from 7/1/12 to 12/31/13:

     

    Page 62:
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvIBx

     

    see also
    page 186:
    http://1.usa.gov/1f2TL7h

     

    PSEC is lucky to sell shares at any premium.
    26 Apr 2014, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    mem:

     

    Well if you wanted to try to duplicate NCV on your own you'd have to have 33% leverage for starters. Then, you'd have to shop for convertible bonds and preferreds, etc.

     

    There are some lower-grade bonds and preferreds which yield near those kinds of numbers without the leverage. I know because I own some of them. But, they have higher risk that NCV's aggregate portfolio.

     

    Lastly, NCV's total expense ratio is 1.28%, which to me isn't even worth talking about. Did we expect them to work for free?

     

    In my opinion much too much discussion ensues about various fund fees, rather than their net performance, which is what really counts for investors. Unless some (mutual) fund has a huge front-end load ore redemption fee, or we're looking at expenses at 3-4+%, I don't pay the much attention to the management fees.
    26 Apr 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    Mem: The leveraged CEFs are benefiting from abnormally low short term borrowing costs. NCV is using a product known as auction rate preferred securities as its borrowing source and the cost was .1% as of 8/31/13.

     

    Page 34:
    http://1.usa.gov/1rtRCDX

     

    The auction rate preferred securities were sold by brokers as liquid investments, but auctions have failed since 2008 due to insufficient demand as noted by Allianz at page 34.

     

    CEFConnect calculates the NCV annualized total return for the past ten years at 7.84% based on net asset value.

     

    The unleveraged Vanguard Convertible mutual fund, which an investor buys and sells at the daily net asset value per share, has a 10 year annualized total return of 7.8%.

     

    http://bit.ly/1rtRDYx

     

    The same is true for the Fidelity Convertible mutual fund:

     

    http://bit.ly/1rtRCDZ

     

    I would ask the following questions and each investor needs to answer these for themselves based on their own unique circumstances and risks tolerances?

     

    Are the risks associated with the both the use of leverage and the variable pricing to net asset value inherent with CEFs worth owning NCV compared to the lower cost Vanguard Convertible mutual fund, when the mutual fund has neither the leverage or variable pricing risk of the CEF and has performed about the same over the past 10 years?

     

    Leverage can cut both ways depending on the cost of that leverage (currently favorable) and the prices of the assets purchased with borrowed money (currently favorable).

     

    Even if borrowing costs remain low for two or more years, the net asset value per share will decline more for a leveraged fund when the assets purchased with borrowed money go down in price.

     

    The leveraged fund owning identical assets to an unleveraged one will go up or down more due to that leverage. Asset prices have been favorable for the past five years so the 33% leveraged fund would outperform the unleveraged one, but what about the next five years?
    26 Apr 2014, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • memshu
    , contributor
    Comments (578) | Send Message
     
    tack, south gent

     

    thank you. that explains it.

     

    i do use leverage myself - and have all my life. my borrowing rate is much higher than that of Allianz but my returns have been ***a lot higher than NCV, also
    27 Apr 2014, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1951) | Send Message
     
    If you are a long term investor & a DGI type, today is one of those days that is okay. You can pick up some shares of your favorite companies cheap, or even start a new position.

     

    DGI investors don't mind when their stocks stall or even go down, because it's an opportunity to acquire more shares at a lower cost.

     

    I wouldn't mind if we had an even harder correction. It would be a great opportunity for everyone, and actually good for the overall market.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    I agree a bigger correction would be nice - but be careful what you wish for :)
    25 Apr 2014, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Lightened up a tad on brkb - less than 10% of my position - just the shares I bought earlier this week. While it's bucking the trend today, the weekly chart of brkb/spx iis against trendline resistance and I'm afraid - at least in the very short term - it will only break the downtrend if the S&P goes down. In other words brkb goes down less than the spx but still goes down. If you're interested in looking at the relative chart let me know and I'll post it.
    25 Apr 2014, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    Meant to tell you appreciate your specific thoughts!

     

    Thanks -- very helpful. I like BRK.B a lot too, but am not in presently. Just no current room as many irons going.

     

    M
    26 Apr 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    You bought (BRK/B) earlier this week? At what price? I had a standing order at $121.5 trigger on a big down day. I expected more down...and sold out quickly since I'd meant to lower my buyin point. So I'm curious to follow your pricing on your buy. Sigh -would have done well if it's kept it!
    28 Apr 2014, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    If ones wants to buy something; might be good to wait until 3:45. This is the kind of day that might get stupid into the close. If it does I will hedge another 1/4 of my shorts in LNKD YELP NFLX. They are in free fall but without the panic yet.
    25 Apr 2014, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    I think it happens; and they absolutely crush the nasdaq into the close. AMZN the key
    25 Apr 2014, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Bought (AMGN) for a full position in my IRA. Long-term hold.
    25 Apr 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Maybe no crush; so much for that thought
    25 Apr 2014, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Friday, Apr 25
    This group still looks very good. Long (AGNC) (NRF)

     

    3:50 PM
    2014 highs for Annaly and American Capital as averages sell off
    The mREITs (REM +0.2%) aren't as green as one might imagine given the pattern of buying the names on broad market selloffs seen so far this year, but sector giants and leaders Annaly Capital (NLY +1%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.7%) have moved their highest levels of the year late in the session.The 10-year Treasury yield - off three basis points to 2.66% - is within a handful of ticks of its low point on the year. TLT +0.2%Other mREIT ETFs: MORT, MORLPreviously: Sharp losses for small caps and tech; money flows into utilities
     |Comment!
    25 Apr 2014, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Macro,

     

    Can you explain why you are long (NRF)? I have a 130% gain on this stock and was thinking of taking some profits.....
    25 Apr 2014, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Well --- I know it seems like I'm late into this one -- but my intention was to hold for the coming spinoff, and I like the group.
    25 Apr 2014, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (193) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    Been holding (NRF) since about $4/ share avg. I'm up over 300% after taking some profit late last year and holding the rest based on the coming spinoff too. Haven't seen anything lately, but thought it was to occur 2nd qtr.

     

    I haven't had a second to look at the market this week being so busy, but I've been green everyday this week, almost entirely because of (NRF).
    25 Apr 2014, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    Macro, Cwinn:

     

    Why are you both positive on the spinoff?

     

    Thanks
    26 Apr 2014, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    A,

     

    I'm far from any expert on the sector or NRF, but I like the group, and historically there is a realized unlocking premium from spinoffs, and have been in this group as experienced by (OCN) investors.
    26 Apr 2014, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (193) | Send Message
     
    A,

     

    Basically for the same reason Macro stated.
    27 Apr 2014, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    CW,

     

    Might be delayed due to the market atmosphere.

     

    I like this group as its a defensive bond like holding.
    25 Apr 2014, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (193) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    (NRF) just jumped, up 8% since open. Any news?
    28 Apr 2014, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Northstar Realty follow-up: FT US deals correspondent Ed Hammond tweets that "American Realty Capital Properties in talks over NorthStar takeover. $20 a share. Story to come" (17.00 +0.97)
    28 Apr 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (193) | Send Message
     
    (NRF) jump left my taxable account at an all time high today. If the sell goes through I'm assuming the spinoff is kaput?
    28 Apr 2014, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    Thoughts on the market and stocks I've mentioned here

     

    http://bit.ly/1in4ona
    26 Apr 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    A specific, contrarian actionable idea for a potential 50% + gain. Not following the thundering herd. Never follow the herd.

     

    M
    26 Apr 2014, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    I like the idea of buying Russia and mbt - but it doesn't have a 5% dividend. This data from Morningstar: mbt div 2013 .28, 2012 .76, 2011 $1.05, 2010 $1.00.

     

    It looks like their 2014 dividend will be 52 cents - better than last year at 3.2%.

     

    http://reut.rs/1nS6SdB
    27 Apr 2014, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. Both WSJ and marketwatch are quoting 5.6%. Could be currency? Doesn't change anything for me but will do a little digging.
    27 Apr 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    The weakness in Ruble against the USD will negatively impact both the ADR share price and the dividend yield.

     

    USD/RUB
    http://yhoo.it/1nSi0XF;range=5y

     

    The main variant for MBT's dividend yield is that the company varies the dividend significantly from year to year.

     

    MTS Website:
    DIVIDEND POLICY
    http://bit.ly/1nSi0XJ
    27 Apr 2014, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    Looks like from the policy and the earnings release --
    Based on the increased FCF in 2013 they should pay out at least 40B Ruble this year.

     

    Make sense?

     

    http://bit.ly/RYZhQa
    27 Apr 2014, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    M: RUB40B is the minimum. The maximum is "an amount equal to at least 75% of Free Cash Flow"

     

    The free cash flow number used in that earnings release excludes items and may not be the one used in the dividend calculation.

     

    In any event, the Board has already declared on 4/14/14, subject to shareholder approval, the exact amount at RUB37.2 per ADR.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/RZ8DeL

     

    Using the current exchange rate, that would equate to about $1.0325 per ADR share. The amount will depend on the then existing exchange rate.

     

    If the conversion of 37.2 Rubles into USDs had occurred on 2/6/13, when I USD would buy 29.9RUBs, then the amount would have been $1.244. This just highlights how the dividend amount will be impacted by a weakness in the foreign currency.

     

    Russia is just way to risky for me, and there will be for the foreseeable future the Putin discount. Russian companies are cheap for good reasons.

     

    In tomorrow's update of three basket strategies, I will discuss buying as a Lottery Ticket 150 of a Russian stock-RSHYY-at $1.53. The LT classification limits my exposure to $300.

     

    I would probably have MBT in my Flyer's Basket classification, a $500 to $1,000 risk category, where I have bought several foreign ADRs that do not have anywhere near the country and currency risk of a Russian ADR. Those three recent purchases, and two have been already been sold, are WARFY, PRDSY, and ORKLY. I discussed selling WARFY in my last blog (item # 6)
    27 Apr 2014, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Thanks SG, this is very helpful.
    27 Apr 2014, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    It's doubled essentially per ADR, looks like around $1.04

     

    See SG below.
    27 Apr 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    Barrons buy appl, sell Nflx. Agree completely.
    26 Apr 2014, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Market update:

     

    I continue to hold long term Dividend players like (AGNC) (NRF) and (MBT) , mentioned in my instablog.

     

    My other secular theme is my natural gas stocks, also in my instablog, currently (ECA) (CHK) - not currently long this one (PDS) (POU.TO) and (BIR.TO).

     

    These stocks are performing well, I already have a large profit on (POU.TO) which is fundamentally an awesome story. Google it. I wish I still had (CHK) and still believe in it, but I had to trim one name. It is blasting off here through 29.

     

    In the speculative area, I continue to hold (HLF) and expect a benign outcome. This is mainly via short puts, although I bought a few shares outright on Friday ahead of Monday's earnings, which I expect to be a positive catalyst.

     

    Against this are my 3 main short positions, which had a fabulous week in adding beta to my YTD performance.

     

    (NFLX) entered short 370 - 360, now 320, half hedged short the may 330 puts at 13.50,

     

    (YELP) entered short 68, now 57, half hedged with short 55 puts at 3.50. Essentially if excercised, I am out at 51.50 for @ a 20% gain.

     

    (LNKD) short 179.50, now 158, half hedged with short puts 160's at $9.00, giving a potential exit at $151 for + @ 18% or so.

     

    If those three keep selling off, I will hedge more of each position. Good luck to all this week and BUY Russia!
    26 Apr 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Just posting an answer, in which I describe a bit of how I invest in geopolitical situations. Talking about my (MBT) investment on my instablog, which is a Ukraine / Russia mobile telecom co.

     

    The trick is filtering the "crisis in Ukraine" headlines to see if an attractive investment opportunity has been created. The question is what if this or that escalation occurs?

     

    These opportunites repeat, every year like clockwork, in different kinds of crisis, and almost universally buying opportunities at the right time. Of course that is far from a science but an art!

     

    I remember buying, in advance of the first TARP. Vote in 2008, really loaded up.

     

    Oops.

     

    I did escape, ultimately, on the next hard bounce.

     

    In (all of) these type situations, if you want the certainty of nothing bad happening, you will never get the price. It's an investing choice. Troops pull back from the border -- bam that's an 18-19 dollar stock. Instantly. (MBT)
     
    I look for situations of maximum uncertainty to buy an asset, because, thats where the greatest opportunity lies.
     
    Professionals often trade for appearance not results. Clients don't want you holding Russian stocks, as they are afraid. So the pros, who see it too, can't do the trade even if they like it.
    27 Apr 2014, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - M

     

    So your saying that risks are built into price as it drops.

     

    That on TARP. you bought and the risk came real, so it took a while to get the money back out. But a lot of these risks that cause panic do resolve soon (same as F & T have been saying - it's just noise for long term investors.) It's trade setups for risk-taking short term traders.

     

    By professionals not trading for results, you mean managed mutual funds and big box brokerages that have company rules that limit their options... (not individual advisers)?

     

    Also that part of their limitations are put on by clients who hire them, and would get upset to see a risk move like this with their money. So the trade remains wider open for those who want to try it for themselves.

     

    Did you know Jeff Miller (an individual adviser, not big box) has set up a whole trading portfolio for clients using options.

     

    I asked a bunch of risks on your blog, so if others want to see my concerns, they can look over there. Thanks for the idea of what to do on this crisis with short term trading money (vs. long term investments.)
    27 Apr 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Ok, on the "professionals" comments, that opens up a whole, important avenue of discussion. I started in the equity futures pits, where making good trades was as much about who I was trading against, as much as the pricing scenario at any given moment.

     

    Not naming any names -- but over time it became apparent, that at every important market bottom, one firm came in with market orders to sell. They were stops, and / or the guy on the desk was panicking out. Same in reverse, often at market tops. Trading with this firm, was coining money at these times.

     

    The perfect contrary indicator.

     

    A different firm was a different story. The guy on their desk was so good at turning points, I went up to his floor trader, to his face, and said "you are cut off, I won't trade with you" essentially. (i was nice about it!) He was that good.

     

    So back to the mutual fund managers, and most individual
    advisers. Note these are generalized comments on the industry.

     

    The point is, to truly understand the rhythm in which markets move to different events, it really helps to understand the participants in the market, their motivations, fears ect.

     

    For the vast majority of the industry, they simply desire to stay employed! Let me explain. If I'm a money manager invested in the most popular momo stocks that everyone in a tech fund is invested in -- like the ones that just puked -- and they puke, I don't lose my job. No chance. It was the market, after all.

     

    However, if I play it safe and get out, and these stocks outperform my safer picks, I might be gone, or on probation. That's death to a money manager, going to cash or safety prematurely, career wise. It's just to risky to risk underperforming. That's one form of pressure.

     

    Another form is what you might find with your friendly neighborhood bank branch advisor. I've met a bunch, they all have MBA's and CFA's and try to convince me how brilliant they are. Anyway.....they will recommend the same stocks no-one ever got in trouble for.

     

    I'm Canadian, so they will very likely recommend Canadian Bank stocks or some variant. Nice, safe and underperforming. Russia? No way. Waaaaayyyyyy too much risk recommending that. People would think I'm crazy!

     

    The key commonality, with both cases, is Popular = safe. My butt is covered recommending these, because Eveyone has a Buy rating! If they go down -- Not my fault!

     

    Totally, in my opinion, the wrong way to think about investing for long run superior returns. Everyone hates Russia. Despises. Same, until recently, with Natural Gas, although that story is moving along.

     

    What has been, and continues to be Popular among the public to some extent? Gold. Why? Fear of the future.

     

    Hopefully this little blurb helps someone, understand the constraints and external pressures on much of the professionally managed money out there, and as individual investors we can outperform, not being constrained by "appearances".
    27 Apr 2014, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - M

     

    Interesting. Sounds true, as years ago I interviewed managers at brokerages, and was totally baffled by some of their advice. Just because it sounds good, didn't make it sound sensible. (So glad I didn't listen to the one who insisted I'd better sell my IBM in a panic during it's early '90s worries...just before it went up...)

     

    It does help to understand the big money and industry think, in order to understand movements better -- especially if your doing short term trades. I've read articles along these lines.

     

    It's one of the nice things here, to have investors & managers thinking for themselves and outside the box.

     

    Anyone have a very different view of the overall movements in the industry?
    27 Apr 2014, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1815) | Send Message
     
    Macro:

     

    Excellent comment! In addition, brokers are always worried about compliance. They very seldom advise someone to sell because it may look as though they are churning.
    28 Apr 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Note to readers: I welcome completely, comments, disagreements on my views above. Let err' rip.

     

    Trading is about emotion, although some of that has been removed it seems to me in the HFT / QE world. Last year it was like everyone in the market was on Prozac.

     

    Perhaps as Tack says, thats an indication the broader public is not engaged. Perhaps. There are contrary data going both ways there.

     

    Anyway some of the best opportunities to me come when there is high emotion, and usually taking the other side. I've been doing it so long, it's like breathing. Becomes an automatic response.

     

    On the Tarp vote, I could'nt believe they voted it down, and I got absolutely smoked on that. A few days later, I think they revoted and passed it, and we had an absolutely monster gap higher in the market, the biggest I had ever seen.

     

    I sold every stock in owned in about 15 minutes, managing to escape with fairly minor losses. Just unloaded, which was a good thing as we collapsed again starting that very day, because the news was just unravelling beyond what Tarp would fix.

     

    Crazy days.
    27 Apr 2014, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - M

     

    " market was on Prozac."
    Yep! Good description.

     

    "indication the broader public is not engaged."
    I still say the broader public isn't and it explains a lot of the greater movements into riskier spots. It's one reason I expect this to turn into a bull market that looks like a bull -- when the public finally warms up to the economy and market again.
    27 Apr 2014, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Jeff Miller is required weekly reading. He has likely forgotten more than I know.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Apr 2014, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    One more note, that I should have added ---- a deeply contrarian idea like Russia in any form -- should be a very Minor part of one's properly balanced and diversified portfolio, and appropriate to one's individual goals and risk tolerance.

     

    My risk tolerance would be considered high by most....and so (many of) my commented ideas, should be "filtered" through your own risk tolerance and investing status.........
    27 Apr 2014, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Tack

     

    You've suggested:
    If you have funds you want to get in play, but don't want to chase the market, to invest in CEF's that invest in convertible issues, floating-rate issues and preferred shares.

     

    I have questions.....

     

    1) What makes one them high-quality? How do you assess one of these types of investments for quality, stablity?

     

    2) What are the risks that you buying in order to get such high yields?

     

    3) What effects their price movements? Do they tend to stay around the same price over time, compared to equities?

     

    4) Anything additional to consider assessing for CEFs... or for individual selections?

     

    Thanks!
    27 Apr 2014, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    1) Regarding quality and relative value I think you have to examine a fund's history. What are its top holdings? How has it performed over time? How is it's current price related to its historical price? How does the price relate to its NAV? What is the fund's multi-year total return? What is the fund's distribution history? How long have the managers been there? Personally, I don't pay much attention to expenses because I am more interested in net performance, not how managers are paid.

     

    2) Funds generally throw off yields comparable to the asset class in which they invest, but amplified in some cases by leverage. Obviously, any fund which employs leverage is going to see elevated effects on returns, both upward and downward, depending on market conditions. For bond funds one can examine distribution of ratings and the average duration.

     

    3) CEF's have absolutely no added protection from volatility. If they are leveraged, the volatility is likely to be greater than underlying issues. Also, as most CEF's are thinly traded, this can also contribute to volatility, especially during panic selling. The major benefit of a CEF is diversification, not safety.

     

    4) One good barometer for value in CEF's is looking at the fund's price versus its NAV, from a historical perspective. Some funds always seem to sell at premiums, others at discounts, and some oscillate. This latter group is usually a good buy if the prices are at or near the bottom of a discount cycle.
    28 Apr 2014, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Thanks for all the details!! That helps.

     

    I do have more questions... mostly on how to understand the individuals of these types of investments.... but I'll carry them forward to a new chapter (when I'm awake tomorrow.)
    28 Apr 2014, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Thanks for all the details!! I want to take this discussion forward to the next chapter with some more questions... See you there!
    29 Apr 2014, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    I don't agree with every point, but I think this is a MUST READ.
    http://bit.ly/1hHyEnL

     

    Altucher discusses my pet peeve about Wall Street ( and many other things) - the fact that you never hear anyone say "I don't know". In reality, when analyzing any market one can only deal in probability, not certainty. Yet you rarely hear analysts, strategists or economists uncertain - they always give their higher probability outcome without ever saying that there's a 40% chance, or some other relatively high number, they will be wrong. And anyone who trusts that opinion without knowing that there's a reasonable chance that opinion is wrong is often hurt.

     

    I think when it comes to the stock market all too often the small investor believes someone always knows what will happen. That's not true. A healthy dose of skepticism is always warranted. And if anyone tells you something will happen there are two questions you should ask. What is the chance your opinion is wrong and what factors are you most uncertain about. If the person can't answer those questions they've obviously haven't done a good job in analyzing the situation.
    28 Apr 2014, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    For the LT investor - (BTW - i don't agree with holding FOREVER, as stated in the article),, it all comes down to Due diligence ... then add a good dose of experience ...

     

    Investing is WORK, plain and simple - there are no free lunches - it it was EZ , no one would ever have to get a job...

     

    Many people don't have the time to "invest in their investments ."

     

    first, competing the DD part, then even more important, keeping up with each one of their holdings..

     

    so many have limited success or complete failure ..
    28 Apr 2014, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1isd7FJ

     

    Analytical thinking 101. Tell me why you shouldn't get excited by this chart yet.
    28 Apr 2014, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    >Tell me why you shouldn't get excited by this chart yet.

     

    If I had to answer, the 34% y/y change is exaggerated some by the horrible March 2013 number, which was almost -25% y/y over March 2012.
    28 Apr 2014, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    In addition to that the truck tonnage reports have been on the rise as well --

     

    all of this continues to feed the secular bull theme.. and we are not at the "end" of that theme..
    28 Apr 2014, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    I also look at the weekly rail traffic numbers published by the Association of American Railroads.

     

    "The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased U.S. rail traffic for the week ending April 12, 2014 with 295,294 total U.S. carloads, up 7.2 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 264,382 units, up 9.3 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 559,676 carloads and intermodal units, up 8.2 percent compared with the same week last year."

     

    http://bit.ly/1k3u44x

     

    Those reports can be accessed by clicking the link at the bottom of the main AAR page:

     

    http://bit.ly/1dfZCU5
    28 Apr 2014, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Dnorm - you got it in one. Also embedded in that article is a Bloomberg link that stated tonnage from ports like Seattle and Jacksonville were far below 2013.

     

    You can't help but wonder how many people are misled by stories like that.
    28 Apr 2014, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    I am a faithful follow of the rail numbers. I usually like to look at the Steve Hansen article (usually available by late Friday) that gives good chart comparisons. That is available on his website:
    http://bit.ly/1k3AFfi
    28 Apr 2014, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5048) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    That chart is hard to read. It's in % change from prior years. Actual amounts would tell a lot more. Without them, can't tell what the throughput patterns are. So can't judge whether a percent change is means anything.

     

    Seems to me there could be other factors not mentioned that a little digging would uncover. ...did some other port close altogether? ...any regulation change in any country effecting this? A nearby port slipped by 2% and this one increased 34%, says it's not a genuine increase in imports, or they'd both be up.

     

    Exports are more fun than imports -- means more US production.

     

    Your thoughts?
    28 Apr 2014, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    look at my reply to dnorm
    28 Apr 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1itwk3V

     

    PDS results...
    28 Apr 2014, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    recision Drilling: Earnings have modestly positive implications for the stock -- Cowen (12.56)
    Monday, April 28, 2014 8:19:26 AM ET
    Cowen believes PDS' earnings have modestly positive implications for the stock. EPS of $0.35 was below firm's $0.37 estimate and included a 2.5 cent benefit from a lower tax rate but higher D&A expense cost co 5 cents in EPS. However, co's announcement of 9 additional newbuild rigs is a positive; Outperform.
    28 Apr 2014, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Reports tonight. I agree with the OP the stock is still undervalued.
    28 Apr 2014, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Completely covered or hedged shorts in (YELP) (LNKD) and (NFLX) on this mornings hard break in those names.
    28 Apr 2014, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    I noticed this morning that one of my equity REITs, ARCP, was down 1.65%, which was out of line with others that were moving up.

     

    There was a report that ARCP was in talks to acquire Northstar Realty (NRF) for $20 per share.

     

    28 Apr 2014, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    (AAPL) up 16; lovely
    28 Apr 2014, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    (AAPL) ----- patience is being rewarded for those that took advantage of all that "fear" and pulled the trigger @ $390 ---

     

    :)

     

    28 Apr 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    Selling the May 67.5 puts (FSLR) at 4.8, effectively could be long the stock 62.70
    28 Apr 2014, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Did I miss some news? Any reason this market is failing?
    28 Apr 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    In my view

     

    traders & algorithmic programs are in charge

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Apr 2014, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    MOMO panic here. Wow. Covered a touch early, although I'm technically still short, fully hedged with short puts now. Due for a bounce here in these names.
    28 Apr 2014, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    (GS), (BAC) getting hammered, wow BAC! Just noticed that. Whats going on?
    28 Apr 2014, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    BAC - negative news before the open. Don't have a clue with GS.
    http://cnb.cx/1isVzJj
    28 Apr 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    BAC hit on news. Time to sell OTM shorter-dated puts and buy long-dated OTM calls.
    28 Apr 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    like the strategy , -- FWIW, $15 is the "breakout" level from Nov '13

     

    and (BAC) is there now --
    28 Apr 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Tack - "Time to sell OTM shorter-dated puts and buy long-dated OTM calls."

     

    On what and why?
    28 Apr 2014, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    In a word; No thank you on (BAC)
    28 Apr 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    So who is actually getting in (BAC) right here?

     

    I've been a buyer this morning. Like to hear @ any actual decisions made.
    28 Apr 2014, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Wait a minute! What does you post say just above the last one? Changed your mind in a half hour?

     

    I sold a few July $15 puts at $0.70 and bought August $17 calls at $0.20.
    28 Apr 2014, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    I'm not a buyer of (BAC) I just don't understand it well enough.

     

    Sorry for any confusion.

     

    I've been a buyer of a couple other names in the general weakness. (via short puts too)

     

    But I'm interested in what others are doing.
    28 Apr 2014, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    Wow !!!
    28 Apr 2014, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    Excellent article on how a 'well rounded' portfoilo should work for a LT investor ..

     

    http://bit.ly/1isXrSx

     

    the last paragraph tells the story ---
    28 Apr 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7185) | Send Message
     
    The below is an example of (desperate) attempted stock manipulation. I continue to be long (HLF), mainly via short puts. Can't recommend it though, too volatile

     

    Herbalife: Pershing Square Capital Management to preview documentary on May 2 about Herbalife victims (58.08 +0.25)
    Pershing Square Capital Management announces the preview on May 2 of a documentary in which more than a dozen former Herbalife distributors discuss their experience with the company and how they were harmed by the Herbalife pyramid scheme. The viewing will be followed by a roundtable discussion with a panel of Herbalife victims and multi-level marketing expert Robert Fitzpatrick, to be moderated by independent broadcast journalist Connie Chung.
    28 Apr 2014, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1m1pA11
    28 Apr 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (948) | Send Message
     
    (LULU) is on sale.
    28 Apr 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    So is Kors, which I prefer. I started a position just a few minutes ago just under $87.
    28 Apr 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (948) | Send Message
     
    (KORS) is a wonderful company, hard for me to value its future potential.
    28 Apr 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message
     
    The problem with any and all "fashion" companies is that they go out of fashion.
    28 Apr 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (948) | Send Message
     
    Fashion is a huge moat its the difference between Nike and Adidas, these of course aren't oil companies... but they also don't have their slow growth rates & high capex.

     

    value and rate of return are determined, by price and earnings today against what they will be in the future + equity.

     

    It is why (LULU) at its current price $8bil ~22x earnings is on of the cheapest stocks in the market.

     

    In 2007 (CMG) traded at $55-150 at the low point that was 25x 2007 earnings at a high point it was 75x current earnings. It is indisputable that in 2007 at the top of the "bubble" (CMG) was one of the cheapest stocks on the market, this was only clear if you could see its future clearly, that is our job.

     

    I would just point out that (CMG) currently earns 5x its 2007 low and 15x its 2007 high.

     

    Now if I was buying a company like (AEO) well I'd need to buy it at valuation of 5-7x its current earnings, because its future is very cloudy, at least to me.

     

    Of course if I am wrong about a companies prospects, I stand to take losses.
    28 Apr 2014, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1951) | Send Message
     
    This is why I just bought Macy's last year....they sell everything. Same thing with (FL).
    28 Apr 2014, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    The Nasdaq Internet Index crossed briefly earlier today into bear market territory, but has since recovered some. The closing high was hit at 433.68 on 3/6/14 and the current number is just under a 20% decline since that high.

     

    QNET at Marketwatch
    Chart:
    http://on.mktw.net/1m1...

     

    The MO stocks look toxic to me. Consumer staple stocks are getting some of that fleeing MO money. FSTA, the new consumer staple ETF from Fidelity is up almost 1%, with names like PEP and GIS doing better so far on a percentage basis.

     

    As to BAC common shares, I have and will continue to just say "no". I have periodically bought and sold its trust preferred securities and floating rate equity preferred stocks, but no longer have any positions in those securities.

     

    Ken Lewis' decision to buy Countrywide, when its toxic nature was well understood by just about everyone else including casual observers, was one of the biggest boneheaded acquisitions in history.

     

    I prefer to play the smaller regional banks that do not have BAC's myriad problems and are easier to understand.

     

    Due to the significant declines in regional banks over the past month or so, a few have fallen back into my buy range, including TRMK which I bought a few minutes ago at $22.73 after selling out at $26.52 back in June 2013 (second round trip in my regional bank basket)

     

    Admittedly, this kind of stock is not exciting. But the bank does pay a $.23 per share quarterly dividend (about a 4% yield at a total cost of $22.73 per share) and recently reported a first quarter E.P.S. of $.43, up 13.2% from the 2013 first quarter. The chart looks ugly though; and a new 52 week low, below $22.36, is certainly possible given the downside momentum.
    28 Apr 2014, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Southgent - "The MO stocks look toxic to me"

     

    I assume you mean the momentum stocks and not Altria - which is also toxic, but in a different way :)
    28 Apr 2014, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (4316) | Send Message
     
    DD: I am referring to momentum stocks, primarily in the Nasdaq 100, that would include AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, TRIP, FB, LNKD, etc.

     

    AMZN reported GAAP earnings of $.23 per share for the last quarter. Will AMZN quit spending so much money in my lifetime and report an E.P.S. number consistent with its current price?

     

    I do not own Altria. I do own PEP, GIS, UN, UL, KO, and SYY in the consumer staple space. I bought 100 FSTA at $25.42 back in March, and that ETF includes both MO and PM in its top 10 holdings.

     

    Fidelity Page for FSTA
    http://bit.ly/1m261pc
    28 Apr 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Notice the smiley face - I was joking!
    And note the colloquial term for the momentum stocks is "momo".
    28 Apr 2014, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Anybody else get the feeling the market is playing follow the leader, and the leader is clueless?
    28 Apr 2014, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    yes, absolutely -- For the most part ----investors, money managers , are sitting back watching the "action" .....
    28 Apr 2014, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    Per Thomson Reuters, “This Week in Earnings” the forward 4-quarter estimate for the SP 500 fell $.09 this week to $122.77.

     

    The p.e ratio on the forward estimate as of Friday’s close was 15(x). The PEG slipped this week to under 2, and now sits at 1.98(x).

     

    The year-over-year growth rate of the forward estimate rose to 7.68%, up from last week’s 6.75%.
    28 Apr 2014, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (948) | Send Message
     
    If earnings for the S&P come in at 122 we could have the S&P at $2100 by year end.
    28 Apr 2014, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2639) | Send Message
     
    Yair - the 4 quarter forward eps estimate of 122 is through the end of Q1 2015 - you'd have to shave off 3 points for full year 2014, meaning calendar 2014 earnings would be 119.

     

    Analysts have been taking down 2014 numbers, but not yet 2015 which still looks ridiculously high at 132.5. Assuming that's shaved back to a more reasonable 128 (up 7.5% y/y which would still be ambitious), at 2100 year end that would put the forward 12 month p/e at 16.4. That would require close to a full point of multiple expansion. Unlikely, but not impossible.
    28 Apr 2014, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6000) | Send Message
     
    Yair,

     

    a possibility -

     

    In my view , IF we can avoid any "major" correction, I like the markets chances of making those new highs.. and that's not adding in possible PE expansion...

     

    BUT the other side of that coin is a year like 2011 , where the market was flat thanks to a big drop during that summer.. despite a good year of earnings growth..
    28 Apr 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14325) | Send Message