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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #21 216 comments
    Apr 28, 2014 11:10 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #21. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #20: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/2862093-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-20?v=1398738295

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared!: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, DIA, QQQ, LINE, CVX.

    Additional disclosure: ...and more... ask me if you're curious!

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (216)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Lots of good topics in the last chapter... so let's bring them over here and talk away!

     

    - Earnings and economy...
    - Market churning...
    - High yield issues, Solid stocks, and Good trade plays...
    - Long term methods & outside the box ideas...

     

    On options, feel free to explain your thinking or how you are doing things... those who don't do options have said they sometimes have no clue what's being done :). Shorting, but how? Covering by buying?
    29 Apr, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » To newcomers, we've moved onto Chapter #22, so please join us there:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 May, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - A question

     

    A lot of investors buy more when their solid stock goes down after they've bought. (non-tech, not-cyclic, etc.)

     

    How often do you buy more when your stock goes up after you've bought? I've never heard mention of doing so.
    29 Apr, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    The first one for me that comes to mind is (AAPL) ,

     

    with the last block bought @ 523 a month before earnings as a "trade" ----
    http://bit.ly/1inasMm

     

    just did that in (GILD) and (MU) , and because of the volatility and wild intraday swings - i wrote covered calls on both of those ..

     

    Since I like to buy in tranches , its plays a decent part of my strategy to buy as they go up -- assuming my first tranche is at the bottom-- --& that doesn't happen as much as i'd like -- LOL
    29 Apr, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Lomah - I will add to strength when I get a decent technical set up and I'm reasonably certain the stock won't go much lower over the short term.

     

    As to how often - I really couldn't answer that since I've never studied my patterns.

     

    I also sometimes add by buying call options, call spreads or selling puts if the volatility is favorable.
    29 Apr, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Thanks FG & DD!
    30 Apr, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    (COH) is on sale.
    29 Apr, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Y

     

    (COH) sure is. But with such decline in same store sales, is it a good buy? It's been declining even in last year's bull market.

     

    On the other hand, sounds like poor answering on the conf call was the problem, and that there were perfectly good answers to be given.
    29 Apr, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I sold it last week, small gain. Decided to put money to work elsewhere. Macys is an easier investment for me....trying to figure out fashion is beyond me.
    29 Apr, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    (COH) has been around since 1941... I think any near term weakness is a long term opportunity.

     

    It is an established luxury brand it's not going away.
    29 Apr, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    BSF
    I think (M) is a terrible company to own at these prices, it is the best of the department stores.

     

    It has zero potential for growth outside the US, and limited possibilities in the US.

     

    It doesn't deserve a PE over 10.
    29 Apr, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    One of the problems, Yair, is that it isn't looked at as "luxury brand" anymore. It has no exclusivity and with all its outlets is fairly ubiquitous.

     

    They have disappointed on the sales front all too often, and while their p/e is a very reasonable 14 and have a stellar balance sheet, there are many in the consumer space with better growth that have lower multiples.
    29 Apr, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Which? I never have time to research all the small caps so

     

    btw these are the revenue numbers since 2004

     

    1,321 1,710 2,112 2,612 3,181 3,230 3,608 4,159 4,763 5,075 4,981

     

    and here are the EPS #'s
    0.68 1.00 1.27 1.76 2.17 1.91 2.33 2.92 3.53 3.61 3.43

     

    Lets compare that to (M) which currently trades at 15x
    eps since 2004
    1.93 3.24 1.81 1.97 -11.40 0.83 1.98 2.92 3.24 3.86 3.86

     

    To me it looks like (M) deserves to trade at a slight premium to (COH) for barely growing its inconsistent, erratic and sometimes highly negative earnings because they were so bad in 2009, 2010 that it looks like the company is a growth story.
    29 Apr, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I bought it cheap last year so it's working for me so far. As people spend more $ here in the US, it will do ok. Great website too. I almost bought Kohl's instead, another good retail store here. Since I live in NJ, Macy's I actually shop at Macys.

     

    Just wait, by the end of the year the US shopper will be spending mucho dinero again. I might even buy some new stuff, & I haven't shopped in years : )
    29 Apr, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Yair, Nordstrom's is a great retailer especially for the wealthier buyer. I like Lord & Taylors too, but Nordstrom will probably do better (at least in NJ's many malls).

     

    If you want a high end store, there's always Tiffanys.

     

    I like Macys because it appeals to the masses, and they really do have nice stores. Plus there's the Macy's Thanksgiving parade, and 4th of July fireworks in NYC.

     

    What can I say? I like Macys : )
    29 Apr, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Just compared Macys, Kohls, Tiffany & Nordstrom.

     

    Macys still looks the best to me, for PE ratio, forward PE, expected earnings....plus if you look at 10 year historical charts, Macys has done the best.

     

    Timing is everything. At the lows, Macys went from 8 to 58 today. Seven fold increase.

     

    Everyone has their own investment criteria & style.
    29 Apr, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    It's a history there. Macy's has been strong for many, many years. Then post recession, it was in terrible shape. Management was making shopping a challenge. They bought out their competitor Filene's (& had another name in state of Mass.) and made of mess of those stores.

     

    Then really was a turn in last few years. Different products, different attitudes from clerks as passed down from top level. One major problem used to be return and even buy policies & using the computer. That's been fixed.

     

    They added these return tag stickers so theft could be greatly reduced. Shifted around store levels (for many years there have been different class stores with cost & quality level of merchandise depending on the local demographics.) They got their website together. You can only buy older merchandise, and very limited new selection, but at least it's browsable and not the irrelevant mess it used to be.

     

    For a few years we didn't even bother with more than walking through there. Now we're back to doing some shopping. Miss Filene's though - several of their labels made life so much easier to shop for.
    30 Apr, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    You are right at the low (M) was a wonderful buy because it was extremely cheap. Today it is an over valued company, in an extremely competitive sector that is in a long term down trend.
    30 Apr, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • DrewMcVay
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    I stay away from fluffy retail, and COH to me is fluffy retail... however if I had to chose between Michael Kors and Coach, I'd pick Coach. Retail is flip flop and other than RL (Ralph Lauren), I really don't like the space.

     

    One way to play the space and benefit from all of the above though is SKT (Tanger Outlets). Seemingly growing in popularity every year. Pays a decent dividend, and will grow overtime I believe as their model is outlet stores attracting a growing same class of people (it's not quite middle class but they aren't quite poor). Trends in the economy will be beneficial towards this stock either way the economy goes I think.

     

    The closest thing I'm long retail wise is Visa and LVS. LVS would be incredibly interesting if they spun off their retail property into a REIT. Visa having exposure to all of the above.
    1 May, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DrewM - Welcome!

     

    Interesting idea....! I haven't heard of (SKT) before. Have to check them out. That demographic is a good one. Especially since outlets tend to attract even some of the middle & upper middle class these days.

     

    To others - DM has a long thoughtful comment on an article, so I invited him since I thought he'd enjoy and has good ideas too!
    1 May, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Drew ,

     

    I've owned (SKT) since last year and happy with the results --
    1 May, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Wild chart showing the 'Tuesday " pattern --

     

    http://read.bi/1mUiVti
    29 Apr, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting, but I'd be careful about using it. Once the market figures out a pattern it usually changes.
    29 Apr, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    Hey, if we're going to start talking about Monday-Tuesday pattern trading, let's also discuss using astrology and floating eight-balls. They'd be just about as predictive and useful, as investment tools.
    29 Apr, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    I didn't intend it for use - i should have put a disclosure on that :)

     

    I just found it curious and quite frankly unexplainable..
    29 Apr, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Oddly, we had the same effect in grains when I was trading them. The pattern was often weakness on Monday and strength Tuesday - we also called it "turnaround Tuesday".

     

    I think it has something to do with people thinking about things over the weekend. They read all this bearish stuff, sell and then there's a lack of followt hrough on Tues - especially if the trend has been generally higher. But that's just a guess.
    29 Apr, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • larryl9
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    Peter Lynch had the same thought about Monday weakness.
    29 Apr, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome to the blog larryl9!

     

    Do you have any more details on P.Lynch's thought? It is interesting to notice...
    30 Apr, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    So idea is buy close of monday, sell close of Tues -- and see nice gains?

     

    Last year there was a Tues effect too. Was it gains or losses?
    29 Apr, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Not sure about last year and the Tue effect ,,

     

    it sure looks like if one did just as u suggest - they would have made some $

     

    but as soon as this info makes the circles-- the market will have its biggest decline and it will be on a Tuesday -- LOL
    29 Apr, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    "biggest decline and it will be on a Tuesday -- LOL "
    Sounds about right, lol.

     

    No disclosure needed -- it was obviously posted as a curiosity :). ...hum, there are other effects like election years....

     

    I'm thinking come in on Monday, get organized, figure out what they want to buy... and get into action on Tuesday...
    29 Apr, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    L, I rarely buy all the stock I want to hold at the same time. As I look over my portfolio (daily!) if a stock is down, then I think about adding to the position. Once I have established my position, and the stock is on it's way up, I don't buy more. Unless I feel it's going to be a real winner.....I did add to (GILD) and (SBUX).

     

    Sometimes I buy just 1 share, as with (PCLN). My trades are free, every month I get more free trades. I've rarely used them all up. With 5 trading accounts, it's hard to use them all. Merrill Lynch Edge is my broker. I really like them, excellent customer service too.

     

    Buying small amounts of stock enables me to lower the cost per share. Plus I lower the risk of say buying $10,000 worth of a stock and then seeing it go lower. Instead, I would buy maybe $3,000 and then add gradually.

     

    This strategy has worked very well for me. (IBM) (FL) (M) (BGS) (MAT) (MCD) (BA) were all built up this way. I'm working on some of my newer positions with this strategy. (GOOGL) (PCLN) etc.

     

    If it's a really great stock, and I know it won't be down for long, then I might go ahead and purchase 100 shares or more in one trade. (GILD) (CELG) (LMT) (NOC) (CMI) (MCK) were all done this way.

     

    Last year, it made sense to get in fast as the market just kept going up. This year, it is wiser to be cautious and especially take advantage of down days.

     

    Every day, I look for stocks "on sale." It's a far better strategy to build your portfolio, or "dividend machine" gradually over time.

     

    Another very wise strategy is to look over your portfolio for stocks that need "pruning." If your stock is technically over valued, with a soaring PE ratio for example, then taking some profits is a good idea. However, if it's a great company I will still hold most of my position. I look at the PE ratio, PEG ratio, price to book, expected earnings, and research all my stocks regularly.

     

    It really keeps me busy, but I am enjoying the work. Let's see how this year goes, but so far I'm making more money managing my portfolios than I've ever made at a former job.

     

    Best part is not paying any taxes on the gains in the retirement accounts : )
    29 Apr, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Out of (HLF) completely. Stock is acting too weird for my liking; I'm history. Small gains
    29 Apr, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Started to reshort (NFLX) (AMZN) (P) as partial hedges against core long exposure on this bounce, they are lagging again; these are in sustained corrective mode
    29 Apr, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Unlike past days, we are holding these levels into the close.

     

    If the week continues with good news, and a good jobs report this optimism could continue.
    29 Apr, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Market outlook going into summer:

     

    As I have written; I believe it is a buy the dip / sell, reduce or hedge on the rips kind of period here, through the fall.

     

    Although some would choose to dismiss both the "sell in May" and "midterm year indicator", coming into a summer with both of historical seasonal factors in play, plus a reduction in QE continuing; ( and the to be determined effects of this on risk appetites; plus some geopolitical items, would seem to me to be a summer to be somewhat defensive in nature.

     

    Do I "advocate" selling one's entire portfolio? Certainly not -- but it is a time to pay close attention to the size and "beta characteristics" of one's exposure, and to hold plenty of cash; in my view, for summer dips.

     

    It is certainly not 2013.

     

    Much earlier in the year; I discussed the "risk off corrective action" developing in the (IWM) and riskiest part of the Nasdaq market. I see that continuing from the price action I am observing.

     

    Earnings from the "momo" stocks like (AMZN) and (FB) are not terrible in my view aka 2013 -- but the market appetite has changed, with participants rotating to "real earning" value stocks.

     

    I see positive economic signals, but conversely this may not be good the the most highly valued, Nasdaq stocks out there, as the rotation continues.

     

    In any regard; today I continued my trading plan on this basis, exiting (HLF) post earnings, due to the continuing messy price action, and re-hedging my long portfolio with shorts in (NFLX) (P) and (AMZN), (and a fortunate tiny short in (TWTR) near the close) that I covered -- except AMZN & TWTR are new -- near the recent "panic" lows in the Nasdaq.

     

    Net of hedges; I am still substantially long in my energy; Mreits, (AAPL) (GILD) and (MBT) positions, but well hedged now, on a "beta" basis.

     

    I have no plans at the current time; to sell these outstanding names like (ECA), (PDS) (POU.TO) and (BIR.TO) , all 4 of which broke to new 52 week -- or much longer --- highs.

     

    Best wishes to all investors.
    29 Apr, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I agree with Don D on (BAC). Managements credibility is impaired. The story keeps changing, and I confess to have zero understanding on the inner workings of the bank. The dividend and buyback have been imperiled.

     

    The government is hostile and shareholder lawsuits are now likely. I would be asking myself, first do I have a clue whats next, and second what is the business case for owning this bank right now?

     

    If I wanted to buy a US bank, and I do not, I would stick with quality, likely (WFC).
    29 Apr, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A while back we talked about Canadian banks. Are any of them a good deal right now?

     

    Seems like the rotation into financial has already happened.

     

    Is the rotation into energy still in the works, or nearing an end?
    29 Apr, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    I'm long two : bns and td - bought in late March and early April. They have been outperforming the US banks for the past month or so, but they haven't reported yet, and won't for another 3-4 weeks. Both TD and BNS are solid companies (as are most of the Canadian banks), but they had been under performing their US counterparts for the past couple years until recently. I think that had to do with the Canadian$ weakness, and now that it appears the Cad$ is in the process of bottoming, they are finding support.

     

    You can't go wrong buying weakness in either of these names for a long term hold. They trade for around 11 times earnings (jpm @ 10 and wfc @ 12), with a divy for TD of 3.6% and BNS @ 4.2% and are consistent dividend raisers.
    29 Apr, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    ....and the difference, in my mind, which is the point of discussion, is management credibility.

     

    To expand -- this is important.

     

    When I buy a stock for a long term hold, I am not buying the company, I am investing in the boards choice of CEO, and his team.

     

    For example, the CEO of one of my companies, (POU.TO) Clay Riddell, is a highly effective builder of companies, (and happens to be worth 2.5 B) His credibility, is beyond question.

     

    The team at Royal Bank of Canada is particularly well regarded. They have a culture that "doesn't blow up".

     

    The point of my comments, and SA author Don Dion's on (BAC) is the CEO and his team look incompetent. For a CEO paid 13 million, this is far from "comical"

     

    And to me, it makes the stock "untouchable", for now.

     

    Once again -- best wishes to all investors. If long the stock, I hope I'm incorrect. But this is one way I assess risk / reward.

     

    We are here to discuss such issues, unless I'm mistaken.
    29 Apr, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    DD: The Canadian ADRs priced in USDs have underperformed the equivalent ordinary shares priced in CADs due to the weakness in the CAD over the past year.

     

    The price weakness in the CAD vs. the USD flows through into the pricing of the ADR:

     

    TD vs. CA:TD:
    http://on.mktw.net/1mW...

     

    I own SU which gained 4.03% today based on a favorable earnings report. Since the CAD rose against the USD today, the NYSE listed shares outperformed the ordinary shares CA:SU:

     

    http://bit.ly/1mWltXO

     

    I would also note that many contend that Canadian housing prices are in a bubble. A SA reader who sold his home in Toronto gave me a link to his real estate broker who had some really expensive houses for sell. One was listed for $15M and I could buy for that amount 6 or 7 similar homes at the asking price in Brentwood, TN.

     

    E.G. Listed at $1.85M
    http://bit.ly/1mWltXQ

     

    Household debt to GDP is higher and rising in Canada compared to the U.S.:

     

    Household Debt to GDP for Canada
    http://bit.ly/NLDpF7

     

    Household Debt to GDP for United States
    http://bit.ly/X6wZju

     

    This Bloomberg article has some interesting and potentially problematic charts dealing with Canadian household debt and income:

     

    http://bv.ms/1mWlsmK

     

    The U.S. housing market started to experience problems when household debt went over 130% to disposable income. Canada is now over 160%:

     

    U.S. Household Debt to Disposable Income Chart:
    http://bit.ly/NLDpEX

     

    The cost of servicing the debt is also critical. The cost of servicing debt in the U.S. is largely responsible for the DSR ratio (debt service payments to disposable income) returning to 1980 levels.

     

    U.S. DSR CHART:
    http://bit.ly/MiNM1D

     

    The Canadian DSR equivalent is also low:
    http://bit.ly/1mWlsmR

     

    But there are some other charts in the preceding link that may cause some to be cautious.
    29 Apr, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    Exactly why I sold the 2 Canadian banks I had awhile back, after reading about the housing bubble.

     

    It takes $1.10 of Canadian to buy $1 US dollar. Plus we have to pay foreign taxes.

     

    I have some (BAC) and plan to keep holding it. Not worried, it's a long term investment for me.

     

    I have all my accounts with (BAC) and Merrill Lynch Edge. I'm very satisfied with the customer service and overall, my experience with BAC is top notch. It's a huge bank. They did a favor buying Countrywide, which caused them tremendous harm.

     

    Along with (JPM), I'm not selling my (BAC) shares either.
    29 Apr, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I'd agree with the housing comments.

     

    However a key difference is many, many Canadian mortgages are CDIC insured, a gov't entity.

     

    The risk profile, and type of mortgages issued, although there are many high ratio, are not comparable to the US "liar loans" and "teaser rates" bubble.

     

    The govt has tightened mortgage availability rules a couple of times, as they see the issue.

     

    Certainly the prices are in what many regard as a "bubble" in certain regards. More so I would say, in condo's.

     

    I live in Toronto though, and pricing is not remotely comparable to Tennessee. A good comparable might be Chicago, however in some ways, not.

     

    Toronto is experiencing constant immigration from all over the world, so continues to grow. Housing is expensive but less than New York or London.

     

    We do have 5+ million people here, in the region. And no gated communities, very little violence for a city this big.

     

    Just some colour.
    29 Apr, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    My last link contains a chart showing the number of loans insured by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The number is currently over 60%.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mWlsmR

     

    As to taxes on dividends, I would just avoid holding any dividend paying foreign stock in a retirement account where there is a withholding tax.

     

    This is a link to a Schwab article on claiming credits for foreign taxes levied on dividends paid into taxable accounts:

     

    http://bit.ly/1jh1OyA

     

    The currency exchange issue can cut both ways. It has been working against the owners of Canadian ADRs for over a year now. The flip side is that a mere return to par (1 CAD=1 USD) would cause almost a 10% increase in my SU and CNQ shares with the ordinary share price remaining the same.

     

    And, while no one will likely be interested in this tidbit, I also buy securities using CADs on the Toronto exchange. For tax reporting purposes, the broker converts the purchase and the sale into USDs even though the U.S. taxpayer buys and sells in CADs. Thus, with a decline in the CAD from the time of purchase, I could sell some securities for a tax loss or a small tax gain now, even though I might receive 10% or so more in CADs than I used to make the purchase.
    29 Apr, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    SG

     

    You beat me to it.
    http://bit.ly/1mWrfcd

     

    It's CMHC. Bank deposits are insured by CDIC.

     

    You can assume the potentially shaky borrowers are almost all CMHC insured -- I would think 90% +

     

    CMHC is a crown corp. so the lending banks have full recourse. Also mortgages are full recourse here. You cannot walk away, the bank will sue and garnishes income. Much better system, much tougher on the borrower.

     

    Banking here is conservative and very concentrated. All considered, if canadian banks start blowing up, the world is in real trouble.

     

    On the C$, a good level is about .90 to the US. I see that as pretty fair value. Par is too high, and usually never lasts. I bought a truckload of $US when the $C was last at Par.
    29 Apr, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Thanks DD!
    30 Apr, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Canadian banks are nothing like US banks, if real estate drops 30-40% non of the majors will have any bankruptcy issues.
    30 Apr, 03:29 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Lomah - take 10% off the yields since I neglected to convert from Cad$ - but TD @ 3.2% and bns @ 3.8% still beat most US banks. And if the CAD% strengthens you get a bigger div.

     

    RY - Royal bank of Canada is another to consider; its p/e is 11 with a 3.6% yield.
    30 Apr, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Macro: Hard to say what is fair value for a currency. I view the CAD as cheap vs. the USD at the current level.

     

    Natural resources are abundant. The Canadian government will soon move into a budget surplus.

     

    http://reut.rs/1ld4dwN

     

    The high was hit in July 2011 when 1 CAD bought almost 1.06 USDs.

     

    http://yhoo.it/R2F4be

     

    The lender's rights to secure a deficiency judgment after foreclosure and the right to foreclose without first seeking court approval encourage borrower responsibility.

     

    A 2011 article in the NYT pointed out that it would take 62 years to foreclose on all delinquent mortgages at the then current pace in NY, and 49 years in New Jersey.

     

    http://nyti.ms/ZQQErU;
    30 Apr, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    29 Apr, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • memshu
    , contributor
    Comments (568) | Send Message
     
    Oecd publishes ppp data (approximated by the big mac index). Generally, a currency with a higher interest rate and lower ppp value will tend to outperform - unless country has 1) very bad politics or 2) profligate government or 3) bad current account deficit
    30 Apr, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Update on gold short. I have turned neutral on this trade as gold stubbornly holds support. Short small via long dated puts.
    29 Apr, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    So often we hear ---- "buy" when there is "fear' , when there is 'panic" selling --

     

    I believe that it applies here as well as the other instances that have been cited.. ,

     

    the 'other " side of the (BAC) story , one with an LT view..

     

    http://bit.ly/1mVW6FE
    29 Apr, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    LT the management looks now incompetent, whether in actuality or appearance. Credibility is damaged. Makes (BAC) a tough buy, and "cheap is not a reason".

     

    I dispute the article that it's "panic selling". That doesn't exist in todays market. BAC has also, been weak for awhile this year.

     

    Bank Accounting issues of any kind, are an automatic "red flag" for me --- at least until a lot of time has passed, or it got "stupid cheap" -- like $10.00.

     

    To me there are sounder choices in the group.

     

    All that said best wishes to all investors whatever your position.
    29 Apr, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Now this author
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    simply applied the same principles stated in these words..

     

    "Russia's stock market is among the cheapest, most beaten down,"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    One mans garbage is another mans treasure ..
    29 Apr, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Simple difference. Russia trades at a PE of 5 and been battered for months. They are not comparable situations.

     

    (MBT) 's management, or accounting, is also not in question.

     

    The best thing I could say about (BAC) is its far, far too early.

     

    What if more skeletons come out of the closet? Bank accounting issues have a nasty habit of multiplying. I wouldn't even think about it until a lot of time has passed, because I can't quantify potential accounting problems.

     

    They are riskier in my mind than a Russian invasion.
    29 Apr, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, Macro

     

    Obviously a difference of opinion here! I was wondering how one tells the Carnival opportunities from the Sears's...

     

    Macro was gracious about pointing out that he respects -everyones- positions and wishes everyone well. So Fear while Macro was keen on Russia, there's no reason to compare, since there are always differences in individual opporunities such as (BAC) vs. Russia.

     

    Instead let's focus on the fundamentals in this case.
    29 Apr, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    please, there is no "shot" -- the two "c" words were brought up "crisis and "cheap"

     

    to me they apply to BOTH situations , no shots were expressed over the opinion to buy Russia -- by anyone -- is so please provide the link

     

    quite frankly im wondering why did (BAC) even come up again tonight after it was discussed yesterday ...and opinions were stated -- and there is no reference to (BAC) in any discussion today ..........

     

    Perhaps that is a more appropriate question ?..
    29 Apr, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    My mistake if no shot was intended! Both are in crisis, but comparison has differences in many aspects, to explore.

     

    BAC came up because I mentioned the rotation into financials. Besides it's a big news mover today, so even if discussed it can be discussed some more. Even out of the blue.

     

    So on fundamentals, what makes (BAC) a crisis opportunity to buy now, or is it better to wait till the fallout is done... or what are your thoughts?

     

    (I'd gone back and edited out the word "shot taken" but obviously both investors read it before I'd edited it out as an inappropriate word.)
    29 Apr, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    you opened with a question on Canadian Banks

     

    Somehow (BAC) is brought up again after it was discussed yesterday when all gave their ideas and positions.. seemed to be "case closed" so one has to wonder why it's even mentioned again tonight

     

    Well, so be it -- frankly, its quite comical

     

    i'll once again say

     

    one mans garbage is another mans treasure and in my view it applies to both situations depending on what side you wish to take. Nothing more -- nothing less..

     

    As far as (BAC) - all can due their own DD , to see if they wish to participate....
    29 Apr, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I opened with a question on sector rotation with Canadian banks as possible focus.

     

    There is no rule on the blog that a topic can't resurface. You're reading into this. Conflict has been resolved... let's live peacefully.
    29 Apr, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    SA author Don Dion wrote the article today on (BAC) which I linked above. I agree and said so.

     

    This was even before your question L.

     

    If people on this blog are going to consider jumping in because of the selloff, I believe they should consider the issues carefully both ways.
    29 Apr, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M posted this and it got deleted:

     

    L

     

    See linked story about possible criminal charges against major Banks.

     

    http://nyti.ms/1mWlV8y
    29 Apr, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And to that SG posted this which got deleted.

     

    Macro: On another topic, the Supreme Court today upheld the EPA's stringent cross border pollution emission rules.

     

    http://nyti.ms/1mWmT4J

     

    Those rules will have a negative impact on coal fired generation.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mWmT4K

     

    A court of appeals recently upheld the EPA's regulations on mercury and other hazardous emissions from coal plants.
    http://reut.rs/1mWmT4M
    29 Apr, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I have no issue with it, assuming its a genuine discussion of 2 different trades on a contrarian basis.

     

    Might even be valid on (BAC), in time.

     

    If its a shot, well whatever. I have a lot of conviction on (MBT) and I'm getting paid to wait, 6%.
    29 Apr, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    I've been trying to learn & understand the high yield issues that have done so well for you.

     

    You observed that most CEF's are thinly traded which can add to volatility, especially during panic selling. But that the major benefit of a CEF is diversification, not safety.

     

    Isn't the point of diversity both gains, but also safety? So I assume the decision of whether to go with a CEF or individual share can be a complex balance?...

     

    Sound like this is a big factor in how to find good buys and undervalued issues?
    >> "Some funds always seem to sell at premiums, others at discounts, and some oscillate. This latter group is usually a good buy if the prices are at or near the bottom of a discount cycle. "

     

    I think for more questions, I'll need to be looking at a specific issue in order to ask meaningful questions...
    29 Apr, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    If the point of CEF's is diversification which is about providing safety, but CEFs tend to trade thinly and get volatility, why buy a CEF instead of an individual issue?

     

    By CEFs, you're looking at ones in prefers and debit, not in common stocks? (Does the concept of a CEF in common stocks even exist?)
    30 Apr, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    CEF's come in every flavor imaginable.

     

    The idea of diversity is to be able to get many issues with a single purchase, like a mutual fund. That provides "safety" in many underlying names. It doesn't help with volatility in the funds' shares, themselves.

     

    Yes, you could buy a diversified collection of underlying shares, but this usually takes more work and money.
    30 Apr, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T,

     

    So CEF is a tool.

     

    So to get high yield are there CEFs with particular types of underlying investments you find attractive to hold?
    30 Apr, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    CEF's for every desire. Personally, I like those in bonds and preferreds.

     

    Go to http://bit.ly/o4ngfR and screen for anything and everything.
    30 Apr, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    So I'm back to this question. How do you assess quality in a preferred stock?

     

    Whether buying a CEF of them or individual, how does one assess the underlying prefers?
    30 Apr, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    One I know is check the rating of the company. What else is a quality factor?

     

    Also what kinds of things effect preferreds movements? For stocks it's largely earnings, & subsector specific factors. On prefers?
    30 Apr, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    A preferred stock is in many ways like junior debt, more like a bond than stock. I look for issues that sell below par, if possible, because they cannot be called away at a loss, and I try to make as sure as possible that the underlying company is capable of servicing the obligation.

     

    Like all things, there's a hole risk scale of yields, so one must decide what level of risk one enjoys. me, I like issues perceived as higher risk, as long as I am convinced the dividend will keep getting paid.

     

    Also, for preferred, there are cumulative and noncumulative issues. the former must pay any unpaid dividends in arrears, while the latter does not.
    30 Apr, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    I might add that no company can pay a penny of common dividends if any preferred issues are in arrears, nor can they issue any new stock. That provides a large incentive for companies to keep their preferreds up to date.

     

    For this reason, in particular, preferred issues in REITs and BDC's are desirable because they are mandated to pay out their common earnings, which they can only do if their preferreds are fully paid, so the probability of any REIT or BDC not paying their preferred dividends is effectively zero, as long as one expects them to have any common earnings at all.
    30 Apr, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T,

     

    That's a whole lot of how to assess that I didn't know. Thanks!
    30 Apr, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    What did you think of the news today on (NRF)...both sides deny the rumor from yesterday. Stock gives back every bit. Seem shady to you? Someone made some $ yesterday.
    29 Apr, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    C,

     

    Yeah....I half hearted offered calls yesterday, but to have any chance stock would have to have traded 19.50 +.

     

    Those things are annoying, and do happen now and again.
    29 Apr, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CWinn

     

    I saw that - was particular about (NRF). Bet you're right, someone needed to make some money... spread a rumor. And the denial was the sell-the-news...
    30 Apr, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    http://on.wsj.com/QZtaiC

     

    Coal Article.
    30 Apr, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Picked up esrx just below $65. They reported a lousy number last night but they are a good company. This was a low risk entry as there is a trendline that starts in Nov 2012 that come in near $65 on the weekly chart.
    30 Apr, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Also took profits on my remaining OIH.
    30 Apr, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Could this be why the weak movements last couple days - leaked data?
    30 Apr, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    I dont' think the market was particularly weak. And the GDP report was worthless. Too much weather influences and it's the first estimate subject to many revisions.

     

    I'm not bullish this market - more neutral with a potential downside bias - but I'm not even considering that GDP number in any of my decisions.
    30 Apr, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    I'm not considering the GDP as important... only wondering if the unexpected periods of drops on Fri and yesterday were big firms with inside data.
    30 Apr, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    agree -- about the GDP number ---"at the moment" its a "non factor" ..

     

    from the market response so far - it appears many are taking the same view..
    30 Apr, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    I'll add to the list that the GDP report was worthless for the exact reasons you mentioned.
    30 Apr, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - DD

     

    (ESRX) is already up over 1%. Is there a buy in point above 66 that still seems like a reasonable deal to you?
    30 Apr, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Lomah - Like the carnival barker says - you pays your money and you take your chances. I don't see much difference between $65 and $66. You could put an a small position then wait to see what develops - I really don't know.
    30 Apr, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Thanks - that was my feeling on a 6-7% drop that the $1 didn't matter. It's been in a downtrend for a while now, months, but not at a prior bottom. So this will be one of my watch what it does and learn instead of jumping in, since I don't know their business yet.
    30 Apr, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    An academic question:

     

    Does that downtrend not yet at a bottom, mean anything to you?

     

    ...or does it mean better buy in point for a wait and hold while collecting interest?
    30 Apr, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    seems like we are destined to remain in this trading range until the S & p breaks one way or another ..

     

    S & p was up on Mon & Tue.. -- any momentum that may have been generated from those two days - likely to be lost now given the GDP report..
    30 Apr, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    GDP was meaningless. Too messy with the weather.

     

    I've placed a decent short here on (IWM) against my "value" longs. Nothing to do with GDP; but related to the (IWM) persistent weakness and market's reaction to earnings (or lack of ) from TWTR, NFLX, P. I am short all 3 and a tiny AMZN short.

     

    Market is clearly saying, we are done with companies without profitability. Very negative for (IWM).
    30 Apr, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    What are your thoughts about (LAZ) now that it's reporting earnings in line with expectations?

     

    It's only 4% off highs in a sideways market. So chart-wise, could go either way...?
    30 Apr, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,
    I continue to like (LAZ) here - nothing spectacular in the chart at the moment -- yes it could go either way --

     

    it has held up pretty well , given the recent weakness in financials ..

     

    They will be the beneficiary of the increased M & A activity that i mentioned - and it seems that has indeed picked up lately --

     

    I'm always cautious about telling anyone to step in front of an earnings report -- they report tomorrow

     

    at this point its better to wait see how they report - could always get a knee jerk reaction that will be in your favor..
    30 Apr, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    (LAZ) reported a strong quarter this AM -- highlights here
    http://bit.ly/1rJ3PVq

     

    I haven't read the CC transcript yet, but it appears the catalysts I mentioned here in March are coming to fruition:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    This is now a candidate to add to positions after buying originally @ 44....

     

    stock is a heartbeat from another new high - and there is no resistance until my target in the mid to upper 50's

     

    it pays a nice 2.5% div - just in case it take a bit of time to get there ..

     

    Best of luck ---- :)
    1 May, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Adding to Momo shorts a little here, they look horrible.
    30 Apr, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    (SPX) and (IWM) are now 2 completely different markets; in different stages -- just very interesting. (IWM) and related are in full - on correction mode.

     

    Overall now I am flat - to slightly net short, on a "Beta adjusted" basis
    30 Apr, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M, everyone

     

    Agreed (SPY) and (http://bit.ly/1msti4Q) are in 2 different stages.
    ...any implication for the market overall when Russell 2000 falls off like that? Bull entering next stage or something like that? Or market worries over tapering so moving to safer stocks?

     

    M - what does "beta adjusted" basis mean? You're short the momentum stocks (which just reported mostly earnings misses), but still long market overall?
    30 Apr, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,
    this rotation has been going on since March or about 2 months now - while individual "momentum" stocks have sold off and corrected , and may continue to do so, the

     

    (RUT) is off 7% from its high , yet the media would have one think the (RUT) is in a bear market - the S & P is "flat" in the same time frame -

     

    for the moment anyway---- it hasn't hurt the quality names --
    the media likes to highlight (TSLA) (TWTR) et al ,

     

    value--- like a (CVX) has gone from 113- to 125 ,same timeframe -- plenty of other examples like that

     

    so if the (RUT) does continue to show weakness and the S & P hangs around these levels it can be construed as a healthy sign overall ..

     

    fed tapering is of no concern to me --

     

    It is a bifurcated market - - difficult to say which way it can go -- the 64,000 question is where does the money then go when the "energy " & other sector rotation stalls -- (some names are pretty stretched right now ) does it head to the exits or rotate back into other beaten down sectors --

     

    Biotech (the biotech with real earnings of course ) "May" be a beneficiary.. that is just one example.....

     

    i'm looking at earnings -- if they continue to be decent and stocks sell off to any extent - there will be LT opportunities - and that is what i'm concentrating on ..

     

    despite what (TWTR) (YELP) are doing-- that's just noise
    30 Apr, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm.

     

    On the Nasdaq anyway, we have a stock going bananas -- (AAPL);

     

    Breaking down -- or broken already on my charts; which are something shorter than monthly;

     

    LNKD NFLX P TWTR FB EBAY AMZN PCLN GOOG DDD, and a whole host of others.

     

    Also going crazy since the beginning of the year is a totally defensive sector; utilities (XLU)

     

    (SPX) (IYT) looks fine -- for now.

     

    So far (IWM) is holding above it's 200 DMA at 109.75; about one dollar lower. Violating that should set off some real caution bells.

     

    (IWM) has been a key leader of the bull market --- it's 2000 stocks. It should not be ignored.

     

    Just my technical thoughts without any bias.
    30 Apr, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I'm not much of a chart watcher, but I do pay close attention to various fundamentals, especially corporate, and industry data, which have high accuracy, and less so to various government data, which can often be volatile, due to less accuracy in collection.

     

    One of the things I will be watching closely is corporate revenues versus employment numbers. Unlike many, who think employment is the driver of the economy, I see it as a very lagging indicator and a drag on the economy. Often, in late stages of an economic advance, just when everyone is celebrating the continued employment growth, if we see a simultaneous slow-down in revenue growth, that's a contrarian indicator and a sign that we're nearing stall speed.
    30 Apr, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    Sounds very reasonable. I'm just observing different things and weighing them. There's certainly a chance I'm interpreting too cautiously. But I'd rather lean a little that way, all things considered, during this particular season.
    30 Apr, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Yes -- and because the "beta" or typical movement of my shorts is greater than my (conservative) longs, I am (likely) close to a little net short now, if not already.

     

    It is something to closely watch, if indexes disagree with one another. It is not a blue - sky risk - on sign.
    30 Apr, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Oh, beta as in beta stat on stocks. I was trying to figure out a "programming beta run"... Now with your explanation, I get it.
    30 Apr, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    BETA. Money is clearly rotating to "lower beta" stocks.

     

    http://bit.ly/QZXTvR
    30 Apr, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Got out of aal bought last week for a 3.5% loss. Given crude oil is so much lower today the airlines should be acting better. The chart also doesn't look good. It has all the appearances of a cheap stock but perhaps there's something I'm missing.
    30 Apr, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    I've sold calls here on half of (AAPL) and (GILD) I'm quite defensive at the moment.

     

    Sometimes when you see former leaders all break down; its simple rotation. Sometimes it can lead to broader selling. Too early to tell yet.
    30 Apr, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    One of the reasons I got out of OIH this morning is that I had orders in to buy esv which I believe has a greater risk/reward. I was filled at $49.80. I read the cc transcript last night (they reported in the morning) and I liked what the company was saying. It's very cheap and pays a 6% dividend. Note if the deep water drillers are no good, the potential in OIH from here is limited so I didn't want both. I still own Hal, purchased a couple years ago.
    30 Apr, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Isn't (ESV) also deep water drillers, like (OIH)?
    30 Apr, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    OIH is the etf of the oil service firms.

     

    http://yhoo.it/R3WrZ4
    30 Apr, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    I'm a little lost. If oil service firms have limited potential if deep water drills aren't good... then why would an individual deep water driller be a better choice? I'm guessing dividend, plus cheap buy in point (oil service firms having already come up.)
    30 Apr, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    I said the OIH had limited upside potential if the deep water drillers are no good since they are a large part of the OIH. I got out of the OIH and bought esv because it's much cheaper than the index and the dividend is much better.
    30 Apr, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Sold calls now on 100% of both (GILD) and (AAPL), as I lean more cautious. Sold calls on half of (TCK)
    30 Apr, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - What are good long term names in utilities?

     

    If money is moving to utilities, and we've never talked about utilities...

     

    For those already in it, is this still an upcoming sector, or is it stalling too during this rotation?
    30 Apr, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12770) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    IMO, the ship already sailed for utilities.
    30 Apr, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Agree - they are overbought for sure ...
    30 Apr, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    Agree, I kick myself for not picking up more of the utilities I own. They were lagging pretty bad. Most are now well over my break even. I think I'm a little late so I'm just holding and dripping div's.
    30 Apr, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Thanks, good to know!!

     

    Still a good topic question...for us newer to get a feel for the sector and what's what...
    30 Apr, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    With this type of rotation... what are typical next sectors that get rotated to? Or possible ones?

     

    Macro I think pointed out it's the lower beta ones at the moment.

     

    ...going forward? Speculating...
    30 Apr, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Lomah - My approach may be different than others, but I don't focus on sectors and rotation, just what companies I think have good risk/rewards.

     

    Lately the trade has been rotating to energy, but industrials and chemicals have been favorites for the past year or so. While I do own some companies in the favored spaces, I own them on their own merit, not because it's popular right now. Prior to energy, it seems that financials were favored. And of course the cloud and social media stocks were big favorites - but you see how well that worked for anyone getting in late.

     

    You'll go crazy trying to keep up or outguess what the big money is doing. Do your own thing.

     

    And while I agree with Tack the ship has largely sailed in the utilites, for long term holds - years and years - there's nothing wrong with putting some money in that space.
    30 Apr, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    I"ll ask it differently. What sectors have been lagging? Those are likely to be good places to look for individual stocks with merit.

     

    Keeping an eye on how a subsector is doing, seems to be a good factor in assessing how a stock is doing relative to it's peers.
    30 Apr, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    I typically will use this type of sector rotation to pick up an unloved company with good fundamentals in a sector that may be out of favor .. (GILD) is an example

     

    I still favor the large cap biotechs as a candidate-- they are not expensive at these prices. good fundamentals and pe's lower than the S & P avg.

     

    I'll agree with DD, on her recent purchase - and add the oil service sector as another possible sector candidate-- names in that group have lagged - yet have good fundamentals and offer above avg dividends- so u can wait until the turnaround takes shape ... Money should start to find that space..

     

    "Materials" have also lagged - they are starting to show signs of life and aren't overvalued at all.. some offer good yields as well..

     

    Going back to energy - while the integrated energy names (CVX) & (XOM) have made nice moves - their charts are very positive and they can be added on pullbacks , so that move may not be totally over..

     

    right now some of the E & P energy names also look to have plenty left in the tank , the energy revolution in this country is in the early stages of development..
    30 Apr, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    This is all my conjecture/musing so take it with a grain of salt...

     

    I think as early as late last year (maybe earlier?) the analysts were saying Tech, Financials, and Healthcare. Then Tech, Financials, and Industrials ("anything with a smokestack" according to JP Morgan's Tom Lee). Then some were saying weird stuff like "selective tech names" while others said "Info Tech" (which I had to scratch my head at because I hadn't heard that term before). Now, the "Info Tech" call seems like it must have either been really short-term or else a complete blunder as that was a bit a bubble that burst (e.g. IPO, social media, tech, and momo names... hard to really know what the umbrella designation is but Info Tech must surely be close... even AMZN and GOOG kind of fit in here though they're larger cap, and the reason for that is I think the way GOOG dropped the bomb on the cloud space basically declaring war on cloud margins across the board). The "Old Tech" i.e. the Apples, Microsofts, and Intels... have not only held up recently but outperformed. So, depending on how you want to interpret things, the analysts were perfectly correct or they botched it or were too vague to be useful.

     

    I feel like I'm in the same boat as you on the whole sector puzzle, though. I feel like I've missed the boat on energy completely and the ones that I've ridden up have been largely due to luck (e.g. REITs and old tech I just happened to have and those have done well... I even had TLT for a bit and got lucky there too). I'm not going to overthink it though, the way I look at it, people are just hiding out in dividend names/defensive names for however long it takes to get back to rally mode. The dividends mean we get paid to wait it out. Also, I can't think of any other explanation for while utilities and consumer staples would be up if not to hide out in dividends (I have to imagine the real bears would not rotate defensive but would actually just bail out of the market completely).

     

    I'm more or less in agreement with the vague consensus here that it's all just a matter of waiting for the E to catch up with the P but that the PE is ultimately justified so we just have to hunker down for a while.

     

    I wish I had foreseen all this going in to 2014 so I could have been better positioned, but I'm still learning. I'll also be curious to see what people think on sector rotation going forward.

     

    I also want to pass along this website in case anyone hasn't seen it before: http://bit.ly/1aggfMl

     

    This has a lot of great ways to visualize sector performance (and market visualizations in general and screening etc.). I confess I don't really know how to use it determine sector rotation plays but maybe it can help generate ideas to browse it for a while.
    30 Apr, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Depending upon the time frame I could give you different answers. But I already told you sectors shouldn't be your main focus for building a long term portfolio.
    30 Apr, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    I was referring to current time frame for what's lagged until now, or at least not rallied to the point of overbought.

     

    For a diverse portfolio, from what I understand sectors do come into play to make sure you've gone into a variety... It's why I'm working on an "overall plan." But when i start buying individuals, it'd be easier to spot good buys, and get my overall plan started into action, if I look at currently better potential sectors first.
    It takes me so long to assess anything that by the time I have, those stocks aren't good buys any more. For instance, financials and energy and rate-sensitive. So that's a one reason behind my question. This turtle is slow...

     

    The other is, later on, when it comes to rebalancing, and general managing, it'd be good to have a feel for what different rotations seem to be about. ...so long term learning. And the other is just plain curiosity to get to know the lay of the land better.
    30 Apr, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/R49WYV

     

    The 'sector rotation' concept is tied to the idea of the 'business cycle'. If the charts there are correct, the recent trends are consistent with moving along the Mid part of the cycle with some people jumping ahead to the Late part (perhaps because of bearishness or perhaps just because they want to get in comfortably ahead of the crowd). I have no idea on the timing of all of this or how to decipher it or play it further, but you can at least see the general lay of the land with this.
    30 Apr, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    L - Broken Clock provided this in his comment -it sums up leads/laggers well.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aggfMl
    30 Apr, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    BC;

     

    When I look at that and then look at what's actually leading; It looks quite late cycle.

     

    Energy, health care, utilities leading, Tech lagging.

     

    Someone please tell me; if we are mid cycle, and the Fed is tapering, why are long bonds so strong -- when the Fed just upgraded the economy?

     

    30 Yr bonds just missed a 10 month closing high by a whisker.
    30 Apr, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BC, M

     

    That's a great link. So is the one above. As you said, there does seem to be hiding out in dividend plays while the E catches up to the P.

     

    The link and leading sectors puts this bull at mid way. Which isn't where people are thinking of it. To my mind, the economy is normalizing and everything is getting into more mature stocks as the bull moves to middle more secure comfortable stage.

     

    Good topic for other posters though...
    30 Apr, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I don't really focus on sectors or what's going on in the market at all. Started out with just thinking of the companies that should be the bedrock of a quality portfolio. The first stocks I bought were (LVS) (MCK) (MCD) (JPM). After reading Bob Wells, David Van Knapp, Crosetti, Carnevale, Fish etc. & other DGI guys here on SA I slowly started to buy quality stocks. (JNJ) (KMB) (ED) (PG) (CL) (LMT) (CLX) (UNP) (COP) (XOM) (VZ) (MO) (WEC) (MMM) (GE) (NOC) (CMI) (UTX) (GPC) (SNA) (SCANA) (WMT) (KO) (PEP) (GIS) (AFL) (SYY) etc.

     

    Best thing is to look for a stock that has been punished lately, but is a solid company. Load up on quality before buying anything risky. This way you will have a solid portfolio that performs well even when the market dips. I have so many defensive stocks, that they go up whenever the market goes down. This is why I keep stocks like (ED) (WEC) (SCANA) (PG) (WMT) (JNJ) etc.

     

    It is a good idea to diversify, to keep from over weighting any one sector. Also learn from Carnevale & others how to value a stock so that you don't over pay for it.

     

    The first decision you need to make is "what kind of investor am I?" If mutual funds, ETFs etc. are more acceptable, that's fine.

     

    I happen to enjoy buying individual companies, but it does require homework. Buying quality companies lowers the amount of homework, and lowers your risk too.

     

    Sometimes trying to research everything is too hard. I let Bob Wells, David Van Knapp & others tell me their story. What they considered high quality, dividend growth stocks. Why they don't worry so much about what the market will do. Instead, holding for the long term with quality stocks will serve you well & provide a constant source of income.
    30 Apr, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    It looks like we could see a blow out number for Friday's jobs number.

     

    This year, you might want to consider "Buy in May" instead of the traditional "Sell in May." Look for quality companies, round out your portfolio or add to existing positions.

     

    These stocks are going to do well (FB) (GOOG) (GILD) (CELG) (PCLN) (SSYS) the rest of this year. They are making real money.

     

    I'm hoping (TSLA) and (SCTY) continue to come back.

     

    (MMM) is one of the top blue ribbon companies. They just reported a blow out quarter. Oh yeah, it's based in Minnesota. They never blame the weather : )
    30 Apr, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    The sell in may thing doesn't make sense especially this year. It's not that stocks go down; it's that they don't gain as much so you can do better in bonds during this time.

     

    The smallish spread improvement doesn't seem worth the risk nor obviously the packing up one's portfolio & taxes even on a year when it's true.

     

    Add this year low interest rates, and a bond market driven in part by non-traditional sources (this Fed policy); really doesn't seem worth any risk.

     

    You may be right that the trading range ends with the next leg up, at an untraditional time. ...guess it depends on the numbers that come in :).
    1 May, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    (SCTY)'s doing well for you today finally :).

     

    (TCK) is up too.
    1 May, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Deepest respect and wishes, BSF,

     

    But this will not be my focus. I'll keep my long term longs from here on, but I'll be focused more on a defensive posture for this period of time.

     

    The huge (IWM) divergence would need to resolve, among other conditons, for me to become assertive on the long side during this period.

     

    I'll be playing that index and the momentum stocks to the downside, until they break their established downtrends, if nothing else as a hedge to my long positions.

     

    I'm long (GILD) but I sold the 77.5 calls against mine. Same with (AAPL). If we keep rallying I will underperform, but I'm up 20% this year - so I will take that risk.
    30 Apr, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Macro, Others:

     

    Bill Gross discusses bonds and the implication for stocks; very interesting article.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hV5pCr
    1 May, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Gross is making assumptions about sensible future rates set by the Fed which very well may be true. Slow growth is the goal.

     

    Since bonds broke down last year they sell bonds and have been putting out articles to spin positive on buying them. So while I can't argue their assumptions, I'd wonder if there was any spin to them.

     

    One point I'd wonder is the assumption about a high debit environment. The gov't is in one. Data I've seen shows consumers are much lower in debit than in the past. People may be upside down in houses, but charge cards, & others aren't stacked up as much as pre-2008.
    1 May, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,
    In my view ----Mr Gross is loaded with spin _

     

    For me I totally ignore
    1 May, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    At least he's offering an alternative to why bonds have been so strong. Every other idiot on the Street expects higher rates.
    1 May, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Follow the (IWM), its selling off hard
    1 May, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Yet (QQQ) is strongest of any today.
    1 May, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Short (BAC)

     

    I've added to my short exposure this morning
    1 May, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Bonds going nuts too, new recent highs. Risk off sign.

     

    Seriously think we might tank a little here

     

    Short (IWM) in size
    1 May, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    M - Bonds are not a "risk off" sign - look at the high flying ndaq stocks and utlilities. I think it's capitulation. Too many people short and after the Bill Gross commentary they have doubts. I tried to buy tlt this am and missed it.

     

    I think it will be "risk off" when this chart breaks down - the MS cyclical index vs the S&P. So far it's holding - but it is threatening to break down.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fwx2mp
    1 May, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    DD -- I understand. Of course the second I comment, we just lift off, led by all things, the momo names.

     

    I shorted (TBT) as I can see bonds going a lot higher if the market dips.

     

    Bonds have been persistently strong even as the SPX has rallied and even through very good data. Don't think it's (only) Gross.

     

    Its never easy
    1 May, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Yeah - just when you think you have it figured out it does the opposite.

     

    I did pick up clx this am - in two tranches. Figure it would hold $87.5. So far, so good.

     

    Tck is acting amazingly well - contrary to most others in that space. Short covering? I did lightly sell a few June 23 calls against stock - it goes x-div during June options trading. It's now getting close to where it's failed against vale in the past, so unless vale can lift, I would expect tck to stall near here although it could test the 100 dma.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fwGkiq
    1 May, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Yeah DD, precisely. This is a difficult juncture to read.

     

    I think it's a big short squeeze in the Momo names, buts its tough to be sure. Lot of divergences
    1 May, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    I cut (TCK) down as well, same calls.

     

    I'm defensive here and net short. The (IWM) is really troubling, and the breadth is weak too. Seasonally; I want to be short this year during this season, might of course be early.
    1 May, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    FWIW,

     

    materials are still underowned

     

    http://bit.ly/1rJamiG
    1 May, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    I'm leaning defensive but long. There's an outside chance we break out to the upside because fixed income returns are so lousy.
    1 May, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    F&G - what's the source?
    1 May, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    DD;

     

    I could very well be wrong; I think there is a good chance this is a head fake, squeezing the momo shorts. I've added to my short exposure on this rally, names like (P) (AMZN) (YELP) (LNKD)

     

    Not a great day so far, We'll see.
    1 May, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    I'm just keeping up with the S&P - but I agree it could be a head fake.
    1 May, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    A site i check out every now & then to get another viewpoint on tech analysis..

     

    http://bit.ly/1fwSKHb
    1 May, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    M, you might do better going long (BAC).

     

    Nasdaq is on the upside, (YELP) had a very good earnings report. Even (AMZN) is up today. Wow twitter is up too.

     

    just one of those days : ) Finally (TSLA) (SCTY) (WDAY) (SSYS) (CELG) (GILD) (ICPT) are all up. Hope this lasts a little longer.
    1 May, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps the stupidest comment I've read all year - by Robert Lang in Realmoney.com discussing the yield curve and their signals for a recession.

     

    "The bond market will tell us whether or not we are in a recession. As of now, that is truly not the case. While the scale below is truncated somewhat the message is clear - an inverted yield curve as we had in Sept 2000 portrays fear of holding short term paper, the Fed was hawkish back then and raised rates, preferring to see growth slow down. Recall the economy entered a nasty recession that lasted for a good 18 months or so.

     

    Compare to the current yield curve which is upward sloping, we have an accommodative Fed that wants to see more growth and is willing to continue with current policy until such time.

     

    We can argue semantics all day long but the bond market is the BEST barometer of economic health, I will use this each time."

     

    Essentially he's saying you won't see a recession since the yield curve is still positively sloped.
    I couldn't help myself and shot off an email to him. I challenged him to tell me how the yield curve could invert with short rates near zero. Betcha he doesn't answer me.

     

    Note, I don't think a recession is imminent, just you can no longer use the yield curve as a gauge.
    1 May, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Just adding another viewpoint --

     

    IF the majority is now positioned with a "sell in May" attitude , overcrowding that side of the boat , and IF the market hangs in here -- it COULD add fuel to more upside, as they then look around and get "caught" by not participating .

     

    Just an observation --

     

    & I will add--- everyone needs to employ a strategy that they are comfy with ..

     

    Best of luck
    :)
    1 May, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    What quantified evidence is there that the "majority" is in anyway positioned for "sell in may"?

     

    So I'm the "dumb money" ---
    1 May, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    That could happen, but unless then numbers get better, that will mark at least a short term top.

     

    For every decent figure like todays ISM we get something crappy like construction spending. More ho-hum growth. The best case I see are the defensive divy payers take the market higher with the more cyclical names marking time.
    1 May, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - BTW on (RAD), RiteAid

     

    If you happen to own (RAD), a long time stockholder on SA, Popeye has submitted a proposal for the next meeting coming early May & is looking for supporting votes.

     

    He's wanting them to up their attention to customer service, and has gone to meetings for years now. He'll even take phone calls from shareholders to answer questions.

     

    He's impressed me over time with his dedication to this, and his info. So just a heads up to look for the proposal for your own consideration, if you're a shareholder.
    1 May, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    I clearly stated it was a "viewpoint" , similar to other "views" i have read here and elsewhere and stated it was an "observation"

     

    and qualified that with my comment with a "IF" the majority"

     

    and at no point did i state or use the word "dumb'

     

    The point is "IF" many are positioned to Sell in MAY- they"COULD" add fuel to a possible rally from here ..
    and further stated

     

    "everyone needs to employ a strategy that they are comfy with .."

     

    if this explanation isn't sufficient , my apologies to all for posting a viewpoint here 

     

    & instruct LMH to take it down ..

     

    1 May, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    "i have read here and elsewhere and stated it was an "observation"

     

    Source?

     

    Btw here's a "fact" -- April was only the 3rd month since 2007, equity allocations were above 67%

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 May, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    an observation on my part from all of the commentary here on SA and elsewhere & in my travels , conversations from colleagues , adding that the media and internet is deluged with that headline

     

    as demonstrated by this "google search --where most headlines are very current

     

    http://bit.ly/1fx7SEf

     

    most everyone i know has gone into a "shell" -- i cant blame them the gains have been good and nobody wants to give anything back -- (I have sold calls also..)

     

    so, it "May" indicate many have taken that stance ......

     

    and 'maybe " those that have done just that will in fact be prudent in their actions ...

     

    that is why I added this comment

     

    "everyone needs to employ a strategy that they are comfy with .."

     

    anyone can take any and all of my observations with a grain of salt - - they are as good or bad as the next guy's .....
    Best of luck to all -
    Again.. it can all be taken down -- if deemed inappropriate.. not a problem ..
    1 May, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    I don't use SA commentary as data; since SA attracts far more than it's share of doom and gloomers seeking attention with calls for 60% drops. They are not mom and pop investor.

     

    I use hard data from AAII and other allocation studies. Anyway it's all meaningless and a total waste of time to prognosticate these things. I have no idea, personally.

     

    I just try to interpret the charts as they give real time data on what people are actually doing, and conduct risk management appropriately.
    1 May, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    accordingly -- I'll keep my viewpoints to myself and my blog

     

    and let others decide if they may be useful
    1 May, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, M

     

    Go easy on me please! No need for upsets. I read it that Macro appreciated your contribution Fear, that "sell in May" might be in vogue... and followed up (not challenged) by wanting to know your data source.

     

    It's same as we do on the blog with all sorts of things. Put out ideas, then ask about them. It's in the discussion that we all get more ideas, and sort our way through all this stuff.

     

    Turns out you both use different data approaches on this one. Also that Macro is more immediate chart focused, and less about that type of data. I appreciate all the comments and approaches on this and I suspect others do too (based on PMs to me.)

     

    ----

     

    It's an excellent point that "sell in May" seems to be popping up a lot lately, and to keep an eye on whether the market acts on it as a whole.

     

    Also Macro, you say something that caught my attention. SA attracts a lot of doom & gloomers from your observation (not a stat, but an impression).

     

    1) Are there any retail investor contribution sites that tend not to? Or is this a trait of active retail investors?

     

    2) Anyone happen to be on SA pre-crash, was it true pre-crash?

     

    3) Are others of the same impression about SA? I find it a mixed bag about 1/2, but now that I know more, I don't follow the d&gers so it gets in my way less.

     

    ...Mom and pops aren't going to sell in May. They're too busy dealing with life, and letting their money ride.
    1 May, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    L,
    accordingly -- I'll keep MY viewpoints to myself and my blog

     

    and let others decide if they may be useful

     

    data points are offered here for anyone wishing to draw their conclusions on the markets ..

     

    and are not endorsed or rejected by me ...
    1 May, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Big reversal in (IWM)
    1 May, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Info from Bespoke Group

     

    weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment declined from 34.5% down to 29.77%. As bullish sentiment declined, the bearish camp grew, rising from 26.02% to 29.45%.

     

    http://bit.ly/1rJHtmF

     

    Everyone should form their own conclusions whether this is meaningful or not ..

     

    Best of Luck ......
    1 May, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    Data on how the money flowed from growth to value recently

     

    http://bit.ly/1fxlobd

     

    and from Bloomberg -- how the big money "hedgies" are positioned now

     

    http://bloom.bg/1fxm6oM

     

    Everyone should form their own conclusions whether this is meaningful or not ..
    1 May, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    My answer as before is its a waste of time for my style.

     

    Two charts, (IWM) and (TLT); should raise some eyebrows for the bulls, IMO.

     

    Good luck to all whatever your views and positioning.

     

    Below 14.85 on (BAC) I will press that short
    1 May, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Look where we are on the Russell/S&P relationship - a critical level.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fxpBvm

     

    Unfortunately the chart doesn't tell us whether the Russell will rally or the S&P now fall faster - but odds are there will be at least a short term bounce off the trendline.
    1 May, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    interesting observation,

     

    some facts ,
    Intraday lows for the RUT

     

    today 1114
    higher than yesterdays low of 1109

     

    which was higher than the low on 4/28 of 1102

     

    which was higher than the 4/15 low of 1095

     

    which was higher than the 2/5 low of 1082

     

    Everyone should form their own conclusions whether this is meaningful or not ..
    1 May, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    D;

     

    I believe that trend line is about to snap, FWIW.

     

    I would be cautious -- to buy the 3rd or more test of key support as the IWM is experiencing, in the area of its 200 DMA. Each test weakens the support.

     

    http://bit.ly/R57wJM

     

    Check this out -- counters (again) all those who claim everyone is in the "bunker" , cash, ect.

     

    Investors have their highest allocation to risk since 3Q 2000. Hard Data.

     

    One lesson is these surveys that get parroted around don't mean squat. Watch what they do, not what they say.

     

    Data is from the Fed -- It's NOT Zero Hedge or SA doom and gloom commentary, that is supposed to be extrapolated that "everyone" is in cash. I don't think so.
    1 May, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    Please just state your data without the implication that anyone else is using poor quality data such as Fear. Thanks :).

     

    If you have hard data, that's good, and can be said -- but without that implication that someone else doesn't value hard data. I don't know anyone on this blog who thinks zerohedge is a solid source.

     

    I also don't now of anyone saying that "everyone" is in cash. Only that it's not at the exuberant phase of a later bull.

     

    It's very true that surveys have to be assessed for quality.

     

    A few of us have commented over time that as retail investors, our contacts, friends, family, co-workers, aren't in the market. It's a big contrast from past years for me.
    1 May, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    L;

     

    My point is clear. Using SA anecdotal articles or informal surveys of ones friends, can be unreliable or quite distorting.

     

    It has been repeatedly stated right here how fearful, in cash, and I think today -- "bunker" was used.

     

    I am presenting hard data that encompasses millions of households; given from the Fed.

     

    I would think that is more credible and should be given attention.

     

    I am long term bullish and constructive as I have stated. I am however no cheerleader, and present data as I come across it.

     

    If also there are well - reasoned articles right here on SA; calling for potential corrective action, from respected sources that aren't calling for the end of the economic world, those are Not "contrary indicators", even if they don't agree with one's view.

     

    For long term, balanced investors prepared for some volatility, these discussions should be of little concern, in any event, IMO
    1 May, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    All of that can be said without making it a contest with another poster. Contrary data, and views can be presented as interesting, informative that they are contrary...

     

    The article is interesting. But it's Blackrock's leaders commenting on their analysis of Fed data. But no link to the data itself or how it was analyzed. And they have motivation to sell the idea. So I'd add a grain of caution to taking in this data too.

     

    Data is tricky. And that's before even deciding what it means. So the more sources the better...
    1 May, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    L;

     

    Not sure what you mean. It's a numerical statistic, and hard to see how Blackrock would benefit from any "spin". They aren't promotional and selling articles, simply a giant asset manager.
    1 May, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    I have background in two areas of data use. It's never as simple as "the data."

     

    They don't even link to the data... so we have no way to know what they used or if they cherry picked.

     

    Blackrock sells those investments they're saying everyone is in more than since 2000. That's motivation - to convince others that their "neighbors are doing it."

     

    It could be good data. But these are important question to ask.

     

    I've seen published medical research through multiple peer reviews, with data right in it, where the the conclusion completely contradicted the data. All because they had a blind bias to motivate them, not even money.

     

    So that's where multiple sources can be invaluable..
    1 May, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    L, -- FYI.

     

    1 Margin debt has declined for the first time since last summer, triggering comparisons to the peaks in 2000 and 2007. But that ignores a longer history that suggests this is nothing but a preliminary warning sign. See page 2.

     

    2 According to the Investment Company Institute, there is now nearly $4 invested in equity mutual funds and ETFs for every $1 invested in safe money market accounts. That is another new 30-year high. The previous peaks were 3.1-to-1 in August 2000 and 3.4-to-1 in May 2007. As noted previously, there is no reason this ratio cannot keep climbing - it's simply notable due to the defined range it had been in for the past 15 years. Click here to see the chart.

     

    More meaningless hard data counteracted by the fact I read a couple of "doom and gloom" articles on SA, so the whole world must be still locked in their bunkers with gold and canned goods.

     

    And in advance---
    It's a joke, let's not get bent out of shape.
    1 May, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Please don't joke on the same stuff that's a point of contention. It doesn't work well as a joke... My dad does the same thing too (he says it's to lighten the mood), then wonders why the fight started right back up again.

     

    ---

     

    While exercising I thought of a challenge for you. ...take your fed data over to IT's blog and see their perceptions of it. They're expert at pulling things apart like that... so I'd be curious what they came up with.
    1 May, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article. Yesterday's "consumption" number was only good because of the health care spending - I'm assuming Obamacare insurance payments.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fxtUHb

     

    If consumers have to spend much more on healthcare, will it crowd out other spending? It looks like that from Q1 data, but weather also could be blamed for a lack of spending on other stuff as people stayed home.
    1 May, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2425) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps I'm a nervous nellie, but quarter after quarter in the GDP reports we've seen consumer spending outpace earnings. How long long can the consumer draw down savings and if businesses don't pick up invesment, won't the economy be significantly weaker than most expect?

     

    For the first time in awhile I'm thinking the potential of a recession in the next year is higher. Most economic modeler's will miss it; their models are heavily reliant on the yield curve inverting - which is physically impossible.
    1 May, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    DD: Yield curve inversions have preceded each of the past seven recessions. The rule of thumb is that a recession will occur in about a year after an inversion:

     

    Quote:
    "The rule of thumb is that an inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) indicates a recession in about a year, and yield curve inversions have preceded each of the last seven recessions (as defined by the NBER). One of the recessions predicted by the yield curve was the most recent one. The yield curve inverted in August 2006, a bit more than a year before the current recession started in December 2007. There have been two notable false positives: an inversion in late 1966 and a very flat curve in late 1998".

     

    Cleveland FED:
    http://bit.ly/1rKkhEJ

     

    The Cleveland Fed notes that the yield inversion model only gives a 1.78% chance of a recession within the next as of 4/28/14.

     

    The GDP report does have some material data points about consumers.

     

    "Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $518.7 billion in the
    first quarter, compared with $547.4 billion in the fourth.

     

    The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was
    4.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.3 percent in the fourth."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/vgZr0y

     

    Consumers in the aggregate are spending more and still saving money.

     

    Millions of households have more disposable income after debt service payments due to refinancing their main debt obligation at historically abnormally low rates. With more disposable income after debt service payments, those households can spend more on purchases of goods and/or services and save more.
    1 May, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    SG;

     

    2 questions: How is an inverted yield curve even possible with short rates at zero;

     

    2nd; if its not possible; is the argument then , that recessions are impossible with short rates at zero?

     

    I'm not calling for one. Just curious as to the thinking.
    1 May, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    DD; see my linked article from Califia beach pundit. The Savings rate of growth; is in free fall.

     

    M
    1 May, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Macro: It would be close to impossible for as long as ZIRP continues. Eleven FED members believe that the federal funds rate will be 1% or higher by the end of 2015.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1gObnFS

     

    With inflation running low, with the last PCE price index going up 1.4% Y-O-Y, the FF funds rate could remain at historically low levels for a long period of time.

     

    If inflation starts to move into problematic territory sooner than expected by the market, the FED may be forced to raise the federal funds rate quicker. The last cycle took the FF rate from 1% in June 2004 to 5.25% in July 2006.

     

    Monthly FF Rates Since 7/1/1954
    http://bit.ly/136a6Rf

     

    When that kind of movement happens, long term rates could come down sufficiently to trigger a yield inversion which did happen in August 2006, soon after the FED ended that tightening cycle.

     

    A deflationary scenario can also cause a yield inversion. I would note that I sold three 10 year TIPs, maturing in 2019, when the price went over 120 in 2012 that created a Negative Current Yield for the buyer of -.89% to maturity.

     

    I am not joking.

     

    see snapshot at
    Sold 3 TIP Bonds Maturing in 2019 at 120.45
    http://bit.ly/10dTS4o
    1 May, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    thanks for the data
    1 May, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    M: The beach pundit is not referring to the "savings rate" which has been fluctuating between 4% to 6% since mid-2008. Occasionally, that rate might dip below 4% or slightly higher than 6% over the past six years.

     

    Personal Saving Rate
    http://bit.ly/zUVPzK

     

    He is referring to savings deposit growth. I have a hard time accepting his conclusion when looking at aggregate savings deposit data which can be found in the FED's H.6 data releases:

     

    Table 4:
    http://1.usa.gov/1kSSocx

     

    The total savings deposits increased from $6.598.3 trillion in November 2012 to $7.2443 trillion in March 2014.

     

    Retail money market deposits have fluctuated mostly between 636M to 650M.

     

    Chart Total Savings Deposits at all Depository
    Institutions
    http://bit.ly/14m4T7W

     

    I would not call the increase in bank lending robust.

     

    The beach pundit refers to this chart:
    Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks
    http://bit.ly/11Q0M1C

     

    The total amount of loans has just surpassed the pre-2009 peak.

     

    I see improvements in lending activity among the regional banks that I own, but the total increases are not what I would call alarming from a potential inflation standpoint in using excess money.

     

    See also FED Survey:
    The January 2014 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1fdGybg
    1 May, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    SG....negative yield....wow.

     

    Hopefully we never see that on normal treasuries. The world would be hurting.
    1 May, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    There are a lot of people here who appreciate your inputs and opinions, so please keep posting them... even if you're feeling poked at (by someone).

     

    You'll make me very happy :).

     

    'nough said on all this. :)
    1 May, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4562) | Send Message
     
    South

     

    you're a great source of data - thanks again
    1 May, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    D; That thought is creeping into my belief, too.

     

    See my post above about investor's total risk exposure, from the Federal reserve.

     

    Everyone's still hiding in cash. Umm -- maybe not.
    1 May, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure this won't change anyone's mind, but it gives you a snap shot of small midwestern town life in the USA.

     

    My family has owned a drugstore since the early 1900's. Over 100 years. What they make on filling a prescription now is so low, that sometimes it's better not to fill it. Sometimes, my brother loses money because the insurance pays less than what the drug cost him.

     

    However, this year things are picking up. The store is busy. They are able to keep 5 employees, pay the bills & stay in business. In a town with less than 6,000 people, there are 3 drugstores.

     

    With Obamacare, more people will go to doctors. More people will get medicine. All this is going to cause the healthcare sector to do more business. Even our little drugstore will benefit.

     

    When my brother decides to retire, the store will close too. In the meantime, they have a better idea of how the economy is doing, how Obamacare is working and they are more upbeat than anyone here. At least in their small town.

     

    The midwest is doing really well. Unemployment was about 3% pre financial meltdown. Now it's around 5%. Homes and land are cheap there. Life is good.

     

    Nerves are frazzled because QE is ending. Nobody knows what will happen next week, next month, next year.

     

    But did we ever know? Nope, we did not. But we still went on. Even after the last big crash, we went on. Came back. Kept on going.

     

    Never doubt the ability of people to live through a crisis and thrive. I don't know what it was like during WWII, but my says people just kept on doing what needed to be done.

     

    Traders worry constantly. Investors have faith in the future.
    1 May, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    I would say 95% of the population doesn't know what QE is, nor do they care.
    1 May, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Seems to me most know who Queen Elizabeth is, even if most haven't traveled outside the U.S.. But agreed, they don't tend to care.
    1 May, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    It would be interesting to take a candid poll of someplace... let's say a pot shop in CO, and see how many people know who Queen Elizabeth is...

     

    I just went and asked my son, and he correctly answered "the Queen of England". He did not, however, know what quantitative easing is.
    1 May, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    BSF...I'm right along with what you're stating from your brother. I haven't been this busy since very early 2007. Actually I'm getting burned out working so much.
    1 May, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    Cwinn;

     

    Markets don't trade on the economic here and now; they trade on the expected economy 6-9 months from now, according to most models.
    1 May, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Good point, hadn't thought of that - it's the future expectation.

     

    How does it trade on the future, when we're all just humans? There must be a mechanism that always for big groupings, i.e. the market, to be more predictive than indivdiuals are.
    1 May, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    It has always been that way; L.

     

    Markets are a discounting mechanism. Hence markets, and stocks, bottom when news is still ugly, and make major tops, typically when things are ripping along.

     

    I'm not calling for any kind of major top here, just to make that crystal clear.
    1 May, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I completely agree with your statement. However, the business I'm in also tends to lead the overall economy by 6-9 months. Without fail we can chart a slowdown well before it shows up in the general economy. With that said I believe 2014 stays positive. When I see the over exuberance that was so prevalent in late 2006-mid 2007, then I'll begin to get worried.
    1 May, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    BSF,

     

    All well taken. Why then are long bonds so strong, week after week?

     

    Surely it's not bill gross.
    1 May, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    C,

     

    I'll ask you then what I asked BSF,

     

    Why are long bonds so strong then?
    1 May, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I'm impressed, that QE is still popular enough for your son to know her!

     

    I've wondered, if folks were more light-hearted here and joked around a bit, if the tension levels that rise would do so less...

     

    I wonder what 'Queen Elizabeth' means in pot shop land? Gotta go google that one.
    1 May, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    So on googling... turns out Queen E the first, put out a law that landowners had to grow hemp or get fined.

     

    There's lots of sites that claim she was supporting cannibas, but it was about business, hemp for rope for shipping industry, clothes, trade. Got to imagine some of those landowners & farm hands smoked it too!

     

    Brings to mind, I've bought bamboo socks (very soft)... is there a business opportunity hidden in there?
    2 May, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3587) | Send Message
     
    Well, bamboo is used to make hardwood flooring and cutting boards... It's not a premium material, though.

     

    There may be some investment ideas in the eradication of it - it's a pernicious weed.
    2 May, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    One more point. An outstanding article from a long time market bull. A must and fascinating read.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 May, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3555) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - On recession

     

    I can't believe how quickly the topic surfaced here.

     

    I read an article (who's link I don't have)... that this stage of bull is where economy slows down a bit and everything in starts consolidating (not just the market). All before the next leg of more mature & obvious growth.

     

    It even said that typically at this point, that tends to bring out concerns and worries about where the future is going.
    1 May, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Why are long bonds so strong? Strong compared to what?

     

    In July 2012, the ten year nominal treasury hit a 1.43% yield on 7/25/12.

     

    http://bit.ly/10biS0q

     

    On 5/12013, the ten year was at 1.66% and hit a recent high at 3.04% on 12/31/13 before declining some to 2.67%.

     

    Given the market's estimate for the average annual rate of inflation over the next ten years embodied in the 10 year TIP pricing, which is hovering around 2.2% (the break-even spread), long term nominal treasury yields can not fall much more unless there is a material change in inflation expectations. Recent inflation numbers have been trending at around 1.5%. The market is anticipating a pick up in inflation over 2% within the next ten years given the current low numbers and the 2.2% forecast.

     

    Even though the FED has reduced its buying of treasuries, it will still buy $25B in May.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/R0wgmA

     

    Look at the treasuries currently owned by the FED. The amount is over $2.2 trillion:

     

    http://nyfed.org/12yg38A

     

    For many bonds and notes, the FED has taken off the market over 50% of the existing supply. At least theoretically, the decreased supply should make the remaining ones capable of being bought by market participants more expensive and hence having lower yields.

     

    For the past two weeks or so, I have been selling my long dated bonds when the yield at the current market price fell below 6%. I am selling fixed coupon equity preferred stocks when the current market price results in less than a 7% yield. I do not view the interest rate risk going forward as justifying holding lower yielding long term bonds and potentially perpetual preferred stocks.
    1 May, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    SG

     

    Today we hit a one year low in yield on the 30 yr, while the economy is widely purported to be accelerating.
    1 May, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2545) | Send Message
     
    Macro: On 5/1/13, the 30 year yield was at 2.83% and closed today at 3.41%.

     

    http://bit.ly/14RQkdz

     

    Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
    http://1.usa.gov/oLC2C9

     

    The FED owns over 50% of the bonds maturing between 2/2037 and 5/2042.

     

    The economy decelerated in the 2014 first quarter.
    1 May, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2946) | Send Message
     
    SG

     

    11 months. http://reut.rs/1fyKypH

     

    While the Fed is getting out of the bond buying business.

     

    The clear consensus I've been reading, is for the economy to accelerate in the second half. Agree?

     

    If this is the consensus, why did the 30 year make a near (11 month ) low today?

     

    Seems incompatible.

     

    If this is not the consensus, and it is closer to what we just saw in the first quarter, what is the case for paying up for cyclical growth stocks?

     

    I have my theory, but I've been told I don't understand QE at all, so would like to hear others.
    1 May, 11:02 PM Reply