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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #24 282 comments
    May 8, 2014 5:33 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #24. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #23: seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land... (I've been putting in the right links, but sometimes this doesn't seem to work correctly.)

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Regular poster User7 has instablogs with a specialty in CEFs & loves when ideas are shared!: seekingalpha.com/user/7415181/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, DIA, QQQ, LINE, CVX.

    Additional disclosure: ...and more... ask me if you're curious!

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (282)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    So why the decline this afternoon, especially Smallcap & Nasq -- started right after I left for the day so I missed it all...
    8 May, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    Why does a dog lick..... ?
    8 May, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - T

     

    Everything?
    8 May, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    You've got to explain :). When I fill in with the obvious choices, I still don't see it.
    9 May, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    It's a crude line that doesn't require further elaboration.
    9 May, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » To newcomers, we've moved onto Chapter #25. Please join us!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 May, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (WWAV) was up 8-10% on beating earnings and revenue. If it wasn't at 46 PE, I'd be buying...
    8 May, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - (MAIN) missed on earnings and revenue. Is there something in particular causing BDCs to miss lately? It's quite a few now.
    8 May, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - (GCAP) and (FULL) now missed too.

     

    SG explained a lot about risks on BDCs and Tack's explained a lot of BDC concepts. Wondering if there's some pressure at the moment - such as analysts tending to overestimate them...
    9 May, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    LMH: MAIN reports so many different numbers that I have no idea which one matches the consensus analyst forecast which was for $.54.

     

    I just pulled the following numbers from its press release:

     

    Distributable net investment income of $21.6 million (or $0.54 per share)

     

    Net investment income of $20.7 million (or $0.52 per share)

     

    NET REALIZED INCOME PER SHARE -BASIC AND DILUTED-$ 0.56

     

    Distributable net realized income per share -Basic and diluted (1) $ 0.58

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1sa3z1Y

     

    Since I view the stock as overvalued, I am not going to try and figure it out either.

     

    Most of the misses have been around 1 cent per share, and the ones who hit or beat are not being rewarded. With the slide below net asset value for many of them, I would just say that the market has soured on BDCs in contrast to other bond substitute common stocks like REITs and utilities.

     

    Part of that, possibly most of it, is related to the BDCs being kicked out of the index funds. The Russell indexes gave the SEC until May 15th to change its rule about having to include the ridiculous compensation paid to BDC managers as acquired fund fees which increases the expense ratio of index funds who are in a race with each other to lower their fund fees as much as possible.

     

    Fitch:
    http://bit.ly/1sa3Bqt

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    9 May, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Thanks SG! Answers well. So the kick out of index was over re-naming compensation as "fund fees." Less liquidity equals harder to raise capital in a business model where it's central.
    9 May, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    LMH: The expense ratio of IWM, which currently includes a number of BDCs, is .24%. By kicking out the BDCs, the expense ratio would be lowered to .2%. That .04% in the current IWM expense ratio is the "acquired fund fees" charged by the ridiculously over compensated BDC managers.

     

    When you have an ETF that owns just BDCs, the fund's expense ratio is added to the acquired fund fees and the number then really becomes really large due to fees charged by the BDC managers.

     

    The gross expense ratio of the BDC ETF BIZD is over 9%:

     

    http://bit.ly/1sahDbw

     

    Since the BDCs make up only a small part of the Russell 2000 index, the impact on IWM's expense ratio is not that great, but fund companies do not want to include those acquired BDC fund fees at all in general index funds that are not specifically related to BDCs like BIZD.
    9 May, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    I assumed fund expensive fees were based on their own internal costs of managing the fund. Outside of those covered by the 1940 act, I assume they don't cost the indices a fee...?

     

    From your link: http://bit.ly/1sa3Bqt
    >>"BDC's expenses are treated differently than the expenses of other companies held in the indices, because they are fall under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Their management fees and other costs become "acquired fund fees" for a fund owning BDC shares."

     

    I see valid arguments on both sides. Interesting that Vang (moved to CRSP indices), and they already excluded BDCs, pre this announcement.

     

    BDCs had already dropped a lot on those announcements. But your insight that they are not as popular and not getting rewarded right now, makes sense...
    9 May, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    I am seeing this right - SnP is now under it's 200SMA?

     

    (DOW is still well above it's.)
    9 May, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    You need an optometrist. :-)
    9 May, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    L,
    nope -- S & P is right at its 20 & 50 day ma's

     

    the 200 day MA is 1781

     

    dow 30 200 day MA is 15856
    9 May, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Another doctor? Can I get frequent flyer points? Maybe I'll just buy glasses cleaner wipes.

     

    :) - turns out Scottrade's streaming charts puts the line in different places -- depending on which order you click the buttons in. Ikes.

     

    I am curious, can one index breakdown significantly below MA, without putting a drag on the others? Or asking another way, have they diverged that much in the past?
    9 May, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH:

     

    IWM is much smaller market cap than the others. I saw a few articles on that recently. I would go out on a limb and say that means it's not as critical to the other indexes, but you'd probably have to ask a trader/technical person to confirm.

     

    Of course, I do think there is something to be said for the insight of 'risk on/risk off' ratio analysis and such. Cam Hui has lots of articles on that stuff and I think it was part of Macro's analysis as well. So, yes, it does mean something, but maybe it's just one factor among many others (including fundamentals).
    9 May, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Today is a good day to add to your positions. Some stocks are "on sale" so take advantage.

     

    Every month, I have money from dividends to invest. By buying every month, I can lower my dollar cost average if the stock's price has fallen since my initial purchase.

     

    Most of my stocks aren't on sale today, some are even up....but that's because they are stocks like (JNJ) (PG) (MCK) etc.

     

    However, today is a good day to buy the stocks that have been beaten down. (FB) is one that will continue to make money. Notice how (PCLN) and the googs are up today.

     

    A key strategy as a long term investor is to put money to work in the market slowly, buying a small number of shares monthly.

     

    Finally, after buying (MCD) last year & adding to my position on dips, I'm now solidly in the green. This is an example of buying in slowly, holding, and then reaping the benefits. The dividend is great, slow price appreciation makes this a true DGI stock.

     

    I'm down on (MAIN) (TCRD) (OAK) but will wait a bit before adding to positions. They are still paying the dividend, but it's prudent to make sure the price is not going to fall further.

     

    None of my investments had dividend cuts, so the money keeps rolling in every month.
    9 May, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    You've listed ones that are up today. And a few that are worth waiting a bit before adding. Are there any you'd add today. (I'm not venturing into (FB) today; I need to build more solid positions first that don't have a high PE risk.)

     

    I'm mostly stepping back and letting myself take time to plan...
    9 May, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    You need a plan, a list of stocks that you want to own because they are good companies with solid earnings. Then buy into them slowly, whenever the price is good. Start with a list of 20 or 30 companies. You know I own over 60, but I'm managing well over a million so I need to spread it out. The foundation of my portfolio(s) is in solid, blue ribbon companies. You need some tech, defense companies, industrials, drug/biopharm, utilities, healthcare, telecom, etc. to be diversified.

     

    Here's my quick list of companies that I think would be a solid foundation (JNJ) (MCD) (MCK) (LMT) (NOC) (GE) (VZ)/(T) (V) (BA) (GIS) (KMB) (PG) (CL) (CLX) (ED) (WEC) (SCG) (CVS)/(WAG) (BGS) (MAT) (FL) (M) (PTY) (XOM) (COP) (UNP) (CSX) (UTX) (MMM) naturally you need to do your DD to determine what entry price is ok....some of these have gone up a lot in the last year. There are many companies out there that I don't own, but are on the dividend aristocrats list & Fish's CCC list.

     

    some financials/BDCs (JPM) (BAC) (KKR) (MAIN) (PSEC) (BX) (BLK) (TCAP) (OAK) be careful with these stocks....don't buy them until you have your solid foundation, and then do your DD.
    Some of these have been hit hard, but they may go down some more. As always, buy in slowly so you can dollar cost average.

     

    For example: my average cost on (MCD) is $97. Two purchases were made last year at $95, then a couple more around $100. All I knew was that (MCD) was a company that met my goals; during the year it was unknown how the price would go. As it turned out, (MCD) had a tough year last year. Now it's coming back...$102 today. It's a long term hold for me.

     

    There are lots of companies that I think are good, but beaten down. (MAT) (BGS) (BA) have come back a lot but are still off 52 week highs.

     

    (KKR) & (BX) are ones I like; they may not be for you, but they do make money, have good dividends & are beaten down.

     

    Some spec plays (SBUX) (DNKN) (KKD) (TSCO) (AZO) (VALE) (ABBV)

     

    Some crazy spec plays (TSLA) (SCTY) (SSYS) (NVAX) (WDAY) (ICPT) (FB) but absolutely do not buy these before you have a solid portfolio established, and even then, only buy very very small amounts. A full position for me is $30,000. My crazy spec plays add up to much less than that. Very few of my investments occupy a full position.

     

    What is a position? 2% of my portfolio. The reason I have so many positions is to decrease risk. If you are managing a smaller portfolio (say $100,000), you can do it with 10 stocks & still manage risk. If I only had 10 positions, then I would be extremely conservative with it. No spec plays at all.

     

    Here are some other stocks that I own, and IMO are really good companies (GILD) (CELG) (CBRL) (AFL) (SJM) (SNA) (GPC) (IBM) (MSFT) (KMP) (SWKS) (HSY) (NLY) (OHI) (HCP) (DFT) (AMC) (AAPL) (COST) Actually (KMP) is down a lot. As always, do your DD before buying anything.

     

    You could say I have my own mutual fund. There are some that believe holding more than 10 or 20 stocks is not a good idea. Then there are those that feel 50 stocks, 2% position in each is a better way to manage risk. It's your decision.

     

    Cash is very important to me. I have about 3 years + living expenses in cash. That's not what everyone needs, you have to decide what works for you. The cash is not all in my retirement portfolios, it is spread around. Dividends are my goal. I'd like to have $100,000 coming in every year, by the time we start making IRA withdrawals.

     

    For young investors, you need to be debt free & have your emergency fund saved up before starting to invest. However you need to invest in your retirement fund regardless. So live below your means & never never buy anything ever. Except if you really need it, but even then buy less than you need. This means buying furniture etc. at second hand shops. Garage sales are great....trust me, you don't need it even when you can afford it. Later in life, reward your frugalness with nice furniture, etc. but don't overdo it. That's how my house is paid off, I can pay cash for everything (actually I use a mileage plus credit card & always fly free, but pay off the card every month) and am "retired" at 56. Buy the house you'd like to retire in now, like a ranch. Hopefully, you will be buying your parent's house, if you don't already live there : ) Yes, I am serious. If you are young, have friends live with you & pay rent. That's a great way to help pay off your first house. Or buy multi family.

     

    L, here are a few stocks on my wish list (but I have to sell something before buying) (QCOM) (SWK) (VFC)

     

    One more thing. I would never own this many stocks if the house, cars, everything wasn't paid off. It's very important to manage your expenses first, and then with the money you don't need for at least 3 years, put some of that in the market. Very important to save for retirement, every month that should be a priority, starting as early as possible. Make your budget & stick to it.

     

    I don't plan on selling stocks when making future IRA withdrawals. We will only take out the dividends. Trying not to do any withdrawals until after age 65. At some point, we will sell our home & downsize. One of my biggest regrets is buying too much house. If we had bought a ranch in the first place, with low property taxes, that would have been very smart.

     

    If you are worried about the future, then bonds should make you worry less. If ever I have over $2 million, then some of that would go into bonds. Instead of bonds funds, I would buy individual corporate bonds and ladder them (that just means buy 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 etc. maturities)

     

    Along the way, my husband & son & I have travelled the world, taken many vacations & we still do. All on a budget : )
    9 May, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    It's very important to buy your stock at a low price. How do you tell if your stock is "priced right?" A quick way to tell is check the PE ratio. If it's under 16, or lower - that's excellent. Now check the earnings. They should be growing, and if the PEG ratio is under 2, good. Even better under 1.0. The PEG ratio is the PE divided by growth. You can find it on CNBC.com under the "earnings" tab.

     

    Read Carnevale to learn more about how to determine if your stock is over valued. Always do lots of DD. When you check a stock here on SA, there are usually quite a few articles on it. Some authors are wonderful, writing in detail how they do their DD. Check out Innzkeeper.

     

    Sometimes the best time to buy your stock is when it's beaten up by some bad news. Check Fish's CCC list for stocks that have been paying dividends for 25 + years. If a company cuts or freezes the dividend, that is an early sign that it's not doing well.

     

    I like following Carnevale, Fish, F&G, Regarded Solutions, David Van Knapp, Crosetti, Chowder, Wells, and others to see what they are advising. Then do your own DD before buying your stock. It's a good idea to buy in slowly, spreading out your purchases. If you think investing a large amount of money all at once (that's more than $2000 for me, in any one stock) then think again. We have seen time after time, the market corrects.

     

    When should you sell your stock? If you've had some big gains, trimming your position makes sense. The PE ratio offers a good place to start. Is it over 21? Maybe over 50? If it's not a growth stock then yes, it's time to trim. Maybe even sell half or more. It makes sense to sell on a day that the market is up a lot. You can spread out the sales of your stock, just as you did the buys.

     

    Chuck Carnevale has written many articles that explain all these things, and more.

     

    It all depends on your goals. Dividends are my goal, and then of course price appreciation.
    9 May, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Another day where we go down, then up, then down again.

     

    I've been waiting for the last hour of trading before considering buying anything.

     

    We may see more downside, because there are a lot of things weighing on the market. While some stocks have corrected, and gone down over 30% there may be more downside. As always, proceed with caution.

     

    Until there is some good news, proving the economy is going to do better then we are going to see this "sideways" market continue.

     

    So should you be buying on a day like today? This is why I buy (and sell) in small amounts. If I buy a few shares today, that's less risky then buying the entire number of shares I'd like to own all at once.

     

    It's another reason I like dividend stocks. There's always money coming in, allowing for me to buy on days the market is down.
    9 May, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    You commented that today is a buy day, with things on sale. And listed a few stocks, but they weren't really buys. So I was tryingn to ask what you saw as a buy today, if anything.

     

    I'm taking time to plan & that may take me a while (I'm not doing this full time like so many here.). But if you mentioned something that is currently a reasonable buy & already on my radar, I'd sort my list to look at it sooner rather than later.

     

    I see a few in the middle of your explanations..
    (MAT) (BGS) (BA) (KKR) & (BX)
    I don't know most of them & will have to look. I'm curious what others think on (MAT). I've been hesitant because they've had a hard time for a while competing against electronic games, and not really come back from that yet.
    9 May, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -- On energy that's run up --- you lightening, or holding?

     

    My (CVX) is up 12%.

     

    I know you all vehemently objected to stops as not working based on your experiences :).

     

    But on lightening, what's your experience? It's gotten at least 3 downgrades this week. Missed on earnings, enough to bother investors. Had reduced guidance last time, and this time it's "coming true" seems to be the impression.

     

    It's a long term hold for me, and .05% of my portfolio. So my basic plan is hold and don't worry. But I could also sell half, and wait for it to settle a little and buy again. ...unless the market finally goes into bull full steam ahead, then I'd hold everything.

     

    P.S. Hope I didn't come through as snippy the other day on stops. There was a lot to read and process (still am) but then had to handle something else in the middle of it.
    9 May, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    .05% = 1/2000th.

     

    Unless you have misstated the percentage, is it even worth thinking or writing about? Trying to trade it for an extra thousandth or two?
    9 May, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    LMH: First, I mostly ignore downgrades and upgrades by analysts. I only read Morningstar analyst reports, just to gather any information contained therein and paying little attention to the star ratings and fair value estimates. It is better to make up your own mind about the fair value range for a stock. Analysts are mostly worthless or worse than worthless.

     

    I do not own CVX. Do you think it is overvalued based on today's closing price of $125?

     

    Earnings will be erratic for oil companies, so the market will not put a premium valuation on the shares. The current consensus E.P.S. forecast is for $10.75 this year and $11.2 next year giving CVX a forward P/E of 11.16:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1g4Sdw8

     

    Other ratios shown on the YF Key Statistics page are reasonable included the five year estimate P.E.G. (price to growth), price to sales and price to book. Return on Equity at 13.56% is better than Exxon at 10.95%.

     

    CVX has a history of raising the dividend at a good clip. After a 2 for 1 stock split in 2004, the quarterly rate was raised from $.4 to $1.07 recently:

     

    http://bit.ly/1g4Sf7j

     

    Generally, I will have a fair value range for a purchase, a hold range and a consider to liquidate or pare range. I have those ranges established when I buy the stock, and will adjust them up or down based on subsequent events.

     

    I will frequently buy and sell in small lots. If a stock falls into the consider to sell range, I might elect to sell part of the position first rather than to liquidate.

     

    I will also make what I call paired trades based on relative advantage and value. I bought COP after selling RDS/A for example. That was not made because I thought that RDS/A was overvalued but simply due to my opinion that COP at the purchase prices represented better value.

     

    I will discuss tomorrow in my weekly blog buying 300 shares of ARCP, a REIT, at 12.69 and selling its equity preferred stock which had gained in value while the common had sank more than 10%. The common gave me a higher yield and more upside in my opinion.
    9 May, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Good info... and points... to set those ranges of value before buying, and adjust as new info appears.

     

    The numbers, as you outlined, are still reasonable for a long term outlook. Especially with the divvy. Though I do think at some point it will come back to 8 PE, and so will the rest of the market someday.

     

    With these having run up so much recently, and the series of downgrades, I expect it to slow down or go down now. ...on swaps, if I had a lot of this subsector, I might want to swap, but it's my only one. Maybe eventually I'll want to switch to (COP) or (BP), but priority-wise I should work on other buy ideas first.

     

    So totally different way to look at it than I was -- which is very helpful :).
    9 May, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    LMH: When I bought COP earlier this year, my alternative pick would have been CVX as I moved out of RDS/A. I had received a tailwind on the NYSE listed Royal Dutch shares due to the Euro's appreciation against the USD.

     

    While it was a close call at the time, the COP price and valuation was better in my opinion compared to CVX. COP had a lower P/E and a higher return on equity than CVX at the time of my purchase.

     

    COP will have better production growth over the next year. Over the next five years, the two companies will be close to equal in their annual average gains as CVX brings some large projects online.

     

    COP has also had a slightly better dividend growth history over the past ten years, but the past may not be prologue.

     

    COP has gone from a split adjusted quarterly rate of $.20 to $.66:
    http://bit.ly/1aQThkp

     

    That is a 230% increase.

     

    Calculator for % Increases
    http://bit.ly/1qXt7ys

     

    COP is overdue for a dividend increase with the last raise occurring in the 2011 first quarter.

     

    CVX has gone from a quarterly rate of $.4 in 2004 to $1.07, a recent raise from $1.

     

    That is a 167.5% raise.

     

    So those are some of the factors that I considered when making a choice between the two. I would have been content to buy and hold CVX.

     

    If you buy an U.S. energy index fund, both CVX and XOM will have heavy weightings and I do own shares in one of those-FENY, a commission free ETF for Fidelity customers with a .12% expense ratio.

     

    Fidelity Page:
    http://bit.ly/1g7fB9I

     

    FENY Current Weightings
    XOM 21.79%
    CVX 11.73%
    SLB at 6.44%
    COP at 4.37%
    OXY at 3.74% etc

     

    When I establish the hold and consider to sell ranges, I will consider the financial status of the company, its history, reliability of earnings, dividend history and other factors to establish the range. I will give a KO, GIS, NVS and COP a much larger "do nothing" range than I would one of my regional bank stocks for example.

     

    So, once I buy one of those blue chips at what I consider a favorable price, I try to hold onto it (though not always successful when Mr. Market gives me a quick and huge gain which happened have after I bought Nestle in early 2009), until the stock becomes clearly overvalued in my opinion.

     

    The example that I use is the clearly excessive valuations back in 1998-2000. Everything that I owned, and I did not own the Nasdaq stcoks, had clearly gone into excessive valuation territory. I refer to KO's price in 1998, a split adjusted $42, higher than now, and over 60 times adjusted earnings.

     

    KO Valuation in 1998:
    http://bit.ly/1my0Spy

     

    I last reinitiated a position at a split adjusted $19 in March 2009. By leeway, I mean that I would likely hold up to a 25 forward P/E unless there was some disaster befalling the company. Normally, for lesser companies, I would be selling long before that 25 P/E was hit. I was selling regional banks last year that were in the 18+ forward P/E range.
    9 May, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Very interesting & helpful to see how you evaluation.

     

    One question springs to mind. If one holds a fund, is the fund's dividend payment a passthru of the dividends for the underlying stocks? I'd seen commentary that it's not, but no explanation of why.
    9 May, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    LMH: An ETF like FENY will aggregate dividends paid by its holdings and then pay its shareholders a dividend based on that aggregate amount minus fund fees. As the expense ratio goes down, the investor will receive more of that aggregate. In the case of Fidelity's sector ETFs, the expense ratio is low at .12%. I consequently own several of them bought commission free in my Fidelity brokerage account.

     

    The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) has an expense ratio of only .05%, which means that the owners of that security will be receiving virtually all of the dividends paid by that fund's holdings:

     

    Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
    http://bit.ly/12uCoDP

     

    The Vanguard REIT ETF has a .1% expense ratio:

     

    http://bit.ly/wSKGTR

     

    For broad exposure to an index or to a sector, it is hard to beat Vanguard's low cost ETFs particularly since I can buy them commission free in my brokerage accounts at that firm.

     

    A fund may also realize long or short term capital gains from selling securities, though this will generally be a nominal amount for index ETFs.

     

    I will frequently see significant capital gain distributions from both mutual funds and stock CEFs.

     

    The Swiss Helvetia fund, one of my long term holdings, has a history of harvesting those kind of gains:

     

    http://bit.ly/138grc1

     

    Its expense ratio is about 1.29% so that will eat up a lot of the dividend payments made by its holdings.

     

    I have also received a series of large, sometimes very large, long term capital gain distributions from CHN:

     

    China Fund Distribution History
    http://bit.ly/1sbSsFK

     

    9 May, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Sorry it's 1/2% of my whole portfolio, around half what others are putting into each position such as BSF (I figured I'd start with that.)

     

    My portfolio is a bit more than 1/2 to enough for retirement.

     

    1/2000 would be small :).
    9 May, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    For an issue like CVX, at that percentage, I'd set it and forget it.
    9 May, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    For learning... if it was a 1-2%, what would you be doing? Still just hold as a core position? Lighten only if it'd grown to an unwanted %.
    9 May, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    For an issue like CVX, I'd only ponder it for a second if the value were truly way, way out of line. If that were so, I'd harvest the whole thing and find other fish to fry. Absent that, the variations are temporary noise.
    9 May, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    Thanks, good to know!

     

    By issue like (CVX), I assume you mean a solid DGI, good for long term investment with a nice dividend.
    9 May, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    good advice here on (CVX) and i can add -

     

    it has a div growth rate of 10% over the last 10 yrs. and they just raised the div again for the 26th consecutive year.
    9 May, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    BSF -- and others. Its interesting to read different investing strategies. A few of mine.

     

    I run, for my longer term investments, a very, very concentrated portfolio, essentially would horrify any advisor looking at it. I try to run no more than 10 - 12 names, and currently -- about 45 % of my portfolio is in 5 energy names.

     

    I don't believe in broader diversification -- I only run perhaps 3 sectors at a time.

     

    Just to paint the picture of the remaining 60% currently,

     

    Over 10% each is in AAPL and GILD -- maybe 25% between those 2. GILD has 100 written all over it. I even lifted my short calls. Aapl I hold through the split.

     

    5% is in LNKD long -- yes I was short the same name, now I'm long -- 5 % is in my spec materials name -- IVPAF.

     

    Last 20% --- let me think -- half Mreits, half small tech / materials names. That's it.

     

    It's very focused and agressive. I really see the chance for an energy stock melt up, on higher inflation expectations and fundamental supply / demand for Nat gas.

     

    Because its so concentrated, for the bigger positions I will trade around them. Its a double edged sword.

     

    The last 2 days they whacked my energy names pretty good, due to the Gulfport meltdown and a wall street journal article calling the run- up a "bubble" in energy names.

     

    Gee, is every bull market move a bubble? Obviously I don't agree -- wait till Nat gas is $8, where I think it might go, and we will see a real bubble.

     

    This party is just getting started in these names.

     

    I bought more on the dip. My fifth energy name is PEY.TO -- Nat gas and oil sands bitumen. Nice dip today.
    9 May, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Btw, to trade this way obviously depends on your situation. I have been debt free for a long time--- everything paid for -- So I have no external pressure.

     

    I counsel paying off debt first -- then true equity can be built -- especially pay off high interest debt.

     

    Due to taxes -- to beat a debt repayment at 10 % interest, you need to return at least 15% just to match. And that's accepting risk -- so only 25% would be worth it to beat out paying off 10% debt.
    9 May, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    I'll add to being debt free. It's amazing how much of a stress relief being debt free can be. Plus it allows me to save a substantial amount of money every year. I'm able to fully fund my work IRA, my Roth IRA, and still have cash leftover to fund a taxable account. I wish I figured out this out 10 yrs earlier.
    9 May, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    CW -- Awesome. When you are debt free, you can more afford to swing for the fences once in awhile on an idea you have conviction, with less stress and associated fear, which I don't have. Fear that is, when I trade.

     

    When you have fear, you "care too much".

     

    I truly don't care. I get upset at the losing periods, like anyone, then I move on. I learned that in the pits, where you get humbled, again again and again. It's loud, intense and without mercy. You either become a shrinking violet, or dive right in.

     

    That's why to this day, I love disorderly panics, because that is the greatest opportunity. That is happening, right now in some of the IPO stocks like FEYE and FUEL.

     

    When you have a stock like FEYE actually competitive in their space, cut from 90 + and now nothing but sellers at 27, it's worth a look. I bought a tiny position. Maybe it doubles to 50.

     

    CW --- at the risk of touting one of my small caps -- take a hard look at ivanhoe mines. IVN.TO or IVPAF. Research the company, but look at the founder -- Robert Friedland -- who has built and sold more than one mining project.

     

    This is an unknown company with 3 fabulous mining properties. Imagine -- if the commodity inflation -- that (FCX) insiders believe in -- comes to pass in materials one day -- this stock could quintuple. We all need a swing for the fences -- stock to complement our conservatism.
    9 May, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1680) | Send Message
     
    Macro: Does debt free also mean no leverage or margin? I was debt free for years and just did not do as well. Now, I try to keep $100,000 or so in margin or debt of some kind just to leverage a small portion of my portfolio. This is a very small portion of my net worth so margin calls will never be an issue. I like to borrow money at 1.58% at IB and invest in leveraged muni bond funds such as NIO yielding over 6% tax free. You can do the math on the returns. This is a trading strategy. If NIO falls below it's 200 day average I sell and the margin goes away.
    10 May, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    I am both conservative and cautious. I am also debt free. I only have cash brokerage accounts and would not even consider buying stocks on margin.

     

    When I built my house that I currently occupy, I really had no choice except to pay cash for everything, since the 30 year mortgage rate averaged 16.04% in 1982 with 2.2 points thrown in for good measure.

     

    Mortgage Rate History Since 1971:
    http://bit.ly/14Vx92B

     

    My conservative and cautious nature is manifested in my approach to investments. I focus on income generation first, place a strong emphasis on preservation and capital, and allow capital appreciation to take care of itself.

     

    Over time, and given the very large variety of income producing investments, I have cash flow now virtually every business day in the year, which is aggregated and redeployed to buy more of the same.

     

    From 1982 to 2012, I did not take any funds out of taxable accounts to spend. I did use them to fund my annual IRA contributions only.

     

    After drawing down the investments in 1982 to pay for the house and lot, I left that money alone for 30 years.
    9 May, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I am slowly migrating towards a conservative approach -- ie most things I buy now do pay a dividend -- which I used to not care less about.

     

    Certainly on the scale, I would be considered a speculator -- but am moving towards a more conservative one.

     

    When I quit my job to become a full time floor trader, everyone -- everyone I knew said I was nuts. That I would fail.
    Funny how that works. They all still have mortgages and debt.

     

    It can be done. But it takes tremendous study and dedication.
    9 May, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    Macro: Ten years ago, I did not own a bond, viewing the word to be synonymous with some unmentionable old person's disease.

     

    Then, after listening to Frank Sinatra and Michael Buble, my brain was rewired and have done well with all types of income producing investments previously shunned when I was a conservative and cautious Stock Jock. I have never been a Nasdaq kind of investor.

     

    I have never bought an option, a future's contract, anything on margin, nor have I shorted a stock, none of which is possible anyway with cash only brokerage accounts. I did experiment some with double short ETFs in 2008 successfully but now shun those products.

     

    Fortunately, I am still compos mentis, but this article published today at Marketwatch suggests that I may need to cut back some on my 400+ holdings before my brain turns completely to mush:

     

    "The biggest retirement risk no one talks about
    Turns out, our aging brains put us at a disadvantage"
    http://on.mktw.net/1g5...
    9 May, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1680) | Send Message
     
    SG: Getting old is not for sissies! To anticipate forthcoming dementia (hopefully twenty years away) I have given a younger family member POA and specific instructions how to invest my money. They will receive compensation of 1% and 3% will be paid to me to fund any expenses I may have. When I pass there will be similar arrangements regarding the payout of my estate.
    10 May, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: All of my family members believe that they are doing me a favor by allowing me to manage their money for free.
    10 May, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Isn't family grand :).

     

    Good planning. We're first working on it.
    12 May, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1680) | Send Message
     
    SG: That is very generous of them. They probably also want you to pick up the tab when eating out! LOL.

     

    Your style of investing is very subjective and would be very hard for someone to replicate your buy and sell rules. Also, it is very time consuming. The instructions I use are much more mechanical and only require a couple of hours each month.
    10 May, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Extreme

     

    Can you share your instructions? Sounds intriguing.
    12 May, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1680) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    It is really quite simple so it can be easily followed. It is composed of twenty funds most of which are Vanguard ETF's. These trade commission free at Vanguard which are part of my instructions. The twenty funds are rsp,ivv,vtv,vo,voe,vb,... and dbc. It is 10 stock funds, 7 fixed income funds and 3 real asset funds. The funds are divided with 15% in large cap, 10% in mid cap, 10% in small cap, 10% international, 5% emerging market, 5% munis, 5% long term treasuries, 5% long term corporates, 5% international bonds, 5% emerging market bonds, 5% preferred stock, 5% in global hi yld, 5% reits,5% gold and 5% commodities.

     

    The rules are quite simple.
    Update once per month, usually the last day.
    5% goes to each fund.
    If the fund is below it's 200 day moving average it goes to cash for the month.
    Rebalance annually.

     

    That's pretty much it. It is an expanded Ivy Portfolio as described by Mebane Faber. I have slanted the funds to capture a size and value factor. The 200 day moving average determines the momentum factor by moving poor performing funds to cash. Beta is provided as 50% is in stock funds, 35% in fixed income funds and 15% in real assets.
    13 May, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    My thoughts and ramblings on the market
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 May, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Any thoughts for the week ahead?

     

    Having read Jeff Miller's... he's basically saying, same old... Not much bad news in his report. FG of course has posted his thoughts & link...

     

    Happy Mother's Day to the moms among us... and Happy Mother's Day to the moms we all came from!
    11 May, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Straight to 1900 SPX. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.00
    12 May, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    Macro: Sellers have emerged during the day when the SPX creeps above 1880. If the market can surge above 1890 then I would have more confidence that a higher trading range will be formed without first experiencing a 10%+ or greater correction.

     

    I did add some to my China Fund CEF (CHN) last week and bought back Wharf Holdings, a Hong Kong based conglomerate. EM still looks undervalued to me compared to U.S. stocks.
    12 May, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    South

     

    as i commented on May 3rd.-- with all of the mention about seasonality and "sell in May" quotes..

     

    "Currently the hedge fund crowd is short the Russell 2000 at levels last seen in 2004. "

     

    "IF the majority is now positioned with a "sell in May" attitude , overcrowding that side of the boat , and IF the market hangs in here -- it COULD add fuel to more upside, as they then look around and get "caught" by not participating . At least as far as the (RUT) is concerned many are already on that side of the trade as indicated by these stats."

     

    & I received plenty of push back on that -- which confirmed my thoughts.. :)

     

    This is what may be taking place now.. & I do agree a break and hold above 1890 or so may be the trigger .
    12 May, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Prognosticating is one thing. Making money is quite another. Many do the first. Few do the second. Most funds are getting trashed by their benchmarks this year.

     

    Or -- put another way -- a famous quote -- "when the facts change so do I. What do you do sir?"

     

    Enjoy the day:)
    12 May, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Keynes' wonderful quote.

     

    And, that's the problem with many, especially the gloomier types. They "predict" that the facts will change, rather than paying attention to what they are.
    12 May, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    "What do you do sir?"

     

    Usually follow my own advice -- :)
    12 May, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    Never a Cassandra, Pollyanna, permabull, permabear, gold hater, gold bug, appleite, or teslarian be.

     

    Listening to price. Respecting the market action, and the liquidity obviously present.

     

    Difference is the financial advisors typically would have been buying social media at the top, because it's popular.

     

    I've always wondered what the financial relationship is between the financial adviser community and our friendly neighborhood investment banking firms who are hawking these overpriced pieces of garbage, like (FEYE) secondary near $90. It's now 28, btw. ( I'm long from there).

     

    Like the relationship between doctors and big pharma -- perhaps?

     

    Potential for conflicts of interest is unbelievable. Bonuses of the month for selling the crap funds. Don't believe me-- ask around. It's unreal.

     

    DD would likely share stories about the floor, as i could, how the trading firms would drive up the price of the futures as high as possible on a given day, knowing there was a big moc -- market on close -- order coming -- then when it came, the firm would trade against their own client and fill the order via a "cross". This would often be public mutual fund orders, btw.

     

    I am confident this happens all over the investment world. Nice, eh?
    12 May, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Easy solution for me. I neither turn on the TV nor read a single analyst report and haven't for many, many years. Certainly didn't impair my results, and may have helped.
    12 May, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Out of LNKD, sticking to real economy.
    12 May, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    good rally today - wow Nasdaq zooming
    12 May, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Blue

     

    strength & buying across the board today, retail, energy, healthcare - - old tech , new tech , social media -- cyclical names ,etc...
    12 May, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    F&G it was a good day to be in the market. For awhile I was getting a little worried, but maybe by the end of the year we will have a lot to be thankful for. All this talk about selling, "go away in May" etc. is not meaningful to me.

     

    If I sell, then those dividends don't come in, and at this point in my life, I'd rather not second guess every little thing that occurs to make my stocks dip. I'm a confirmed "buy & hold" type, and am getting better at just not selling.

     

    Rather would hold on to my good companies that are actually making $ & paying their dividends then try to time the market.

     

    I'm too old & cranky, never was any good at market timing anyhow.

     

    Let's see where we are in 10 years. Even better, in 20 years.

     

    Along the way, I might sell a few shares here & there, but only to buy more shares of something else. Darn thing is, every month I have to decide what to do with all the $ coming in from dividends. Positively makes me cranky, especially when the market goes up before I have a chance to buy shares cheap.

     

    Looking forward to the next dip, and staying cranky : )
    12 May, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    It was fun to see my latest "beaten up stocks but not DGI types" start to zoom today.

     

    (GILD) (CELG) (ICPT) (WDAY) (NVAX) the googs (PCLN) (AZO) (KKD) (VALE) (FB) .... nice pop today.

     

    Doing the "cranky happy dance"

     

    back to reviewing my own personal mutual fund, where even when my stocks dip the dividends are still paid in cash.
    12 May, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Blue

     

    your comment

     

    "Rather would hold on to my good companies that are actually making $ & paying their dividends then try to time the market."

     

    agree ,, best to leave leave that to the folks that like to change positions like they change their socks -- LOL
    12 May, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Changing my positons this year has me up 25% YTD through a mix of longs and shorts.

     

    I'm sure most people here, are up more than that?

     

    Assuming that comment was directed at my style.

     

    Making money -- I believe is what the goal is here, correct?

     

    I'll tell you what, sir. You will ride the next bear market, down, likely, all while claiming the market is "wrong" and I will short the next bear market down, through "listening to price"

     

    The difference between our "styles".

     

    I'm a pro trader - not a "financial adviser" -- and proud of it!

     

    Enjoy the day:).
    12 May, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Well if you are good with options & figuring out when stocks are overvalued, shorting can work...it's just that I'm too old & cranky to learn how to do options. I've been tempted, but then here's what my dad told me, way back before 1990:

     

    "Buy quality and hold it." He was the best investor I ever knew. Left my 89 year old mom very well off, and he died in 1990. She just cashes in the dividends. Amazing, isn't it? She hasn't changed a thing. Since 1990!

     

    Traders make $ but it's too difficult for me to figure out what the market will do, and I have enough gray hairs (and enough hair loss too) that it's easier to do what I do....and I still make money. Maybe it's not "cool" but I was always the biggest geek around. Then I married a geek. Now we have a son that told me when he was in high school "Mom I'm so cool I make you & dad cool" LOL.

     

    Lots of ways to make $. And be cool : )
    12 May, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    BSF,

     

    As Ive said before, I respect your perspective, style and goals, and agree.
    12 May, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    "I'll tell you what, sir. You will ride the next bear market, down, likely, all while claiming the market is "wrong" "

     

    really ? - quite presumptuous !!

     

    the documentation is here and will continue to be here ..

     

    http://bit.ly/1kQlubB

     

    nothing "made up" and nothing to hide - quite"transparent".......
    enjoy your evening :)
    12 May, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Altho I'm not smart enough (& don't have the steel nerves) to have a clue how you do all those neat option trades, you do have my respect too M.

     

    I guess the closest I get to excitement is buying stocks when they are beaten down, like (GILD) etc. & then (hopefully!) watching them go up. (TSLA) & (SCTY) are giving me some indigestion, but will wait & see how they do.

     

    If I ever make enough $, I'll have to decide whether to hold 'em or fold 'em. So far, (GILD) is making some of the pain in my other buys a little less nasty.

     

    Stay cool : )

     

    p.s. I watch Cramer (he is entertaining sometimes) and today he actually compared (MCD) and (CMG). Turned out, (MCD) won. I never bought (CMG) because it was too hot to handle, but I already own (MCD). Loaded up last year when it was cheap. Sometimes I get it right, even before the guy with the tv show & all the books ; )
    12 May, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    hey guys, I like you both.

     

    I think there's a million ways to make $ in stocks. No one way, or best way.

     

    I learn from you both....but youse two need to "fuhgettabout it" (cuz you know, I do live in NJ).
    12 May, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Thank you BSF. Appreciate that. There are many ways. I don't pretend to know even a few of them.

     

    There are trading markets and investor markets. I will likely underperform in one and outperform in the other.

     

    As my trading matures over time, I am transitioning gradually to more of the investor side with a majority of my account, and trade a minor account.

     

    I'm not turning over the whole thing daily by any means! I did almost nothing today, as I was already positioned for an SPX breakout, per last weeks comments, so I happily watched, sold only LNKD.

     

    If we hold above new highs -- then we have to assume a low volatility, "investors market " for awhile.
    12 May, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Blue,
    agree,

     

    and will add --- this is not necessary
    "I'll tell you what, sir. You will ride the next bear market, down, likely, all while claiming the market is "wrong" "
    12 May, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    Macro: If I was up 25% so far this year, I would call it quits for the year.

     

    Turtles can barely be seen moving. I do okay for a turtle sitting on a 20% cash allocation earning zilch.

     

    What you do would require that the Old Geezer here at HQ get hooked up to an IV of Maalox and Chill Pills.

     

    I will post next Saturday a snapshot of my YTD returns (through 4/30/14) in four Fidelity accounts calculated by that broker:

     

    All + Numbers
    5.68%
    8.61%
    6.94%
    6.52%

     

    12 May, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I am quite thankful. The big selloff in the momo's obviously helped -- twice in the same names.

     

    Many styles work in the long run, and I respect and learn from others. I recall the tortoise won the race in the end, so who knows this year!

     

    I have backed off here and am content with my largely conservative long positions for now. Gots lots of other stuff to do, like flying in this nice warm weather.
    12 May, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    Like the turtle approach - especially the documentation & transparency .. EZ for others to follow ..

     

    :)
    12 May, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    This comment from you surprised me "I was getting a little worried" since you're such a long termer.

     

    What if the market does go down - 20%, even 25% - so then it will come back up. Might take time, but you're set up for dividends meanwhile... so nothing to worry about at all! (It's not going down 40-50% or even if it does it won't be because of a recession surrounding it that makes recovery slow. Not unless there's some geopolitical event of massive proportions.) So no worries please even on the downest of days :).
    15 May, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Reminder - May options expire Friday. With vol very low I suspect there are many traders short calls. If the news is good the market has plenty of fuel from those short calls that it can melt up as they cover throughout the week.

     

    Since the calls were cheap this am I bought some in the xrt, xli and eem for a trade. If they're in the money Friday I'll probably exercise half and/or sell longer dated calls against them.

     

    Among the major report is tomorrow morning is retail sales, Thurs Industrial production and Philly Fed, Fri Housing starts.
    12 May, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    New high closes in Dow and S&P; new account high.

     

    Among the more interesting charts today was the eem, which appears to have broken out of a multi-year sideways pattern on the weekly chart. To be on the safe side I'd prefer to see eem above $42.47 on Friday - the April highs.

     

    http://bit.ly/1oJs1a1
    12 May, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    nice pick up on that EEM chart,, Dow transports also registered a new high as well..

     

    RUT retakes the 20 day MA - would like to see a follow thru there as well , then it may get real interesting :)

     

    ......
    12 May, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Same here DD.

     

    Did very little as we transition to a new possible uptrend, and happy with my positions. In grinding markets, which I would assume this advance will transition to, the less I do, the better I do.

     

    I can see perhaps a slow rally through the early summer, perhaps to a 2000 SPX print, then perhaps more corrective action as QE end draws near and midterms do as well.

     

    As good a theory as any. Today looked like a lot of short-covering, which I am rather thankful I didn't participate in, as I'm not short a thing.

     

    My energy lagged today as Nat gas did, but it's the most powerful long term secular trend I see -- so I will not sell into spring seasonal weakness.
    12 May, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    EM's where it's at. Big money to be made, especially on the commodity trade.
    12 May, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Tack, if I added anything it would be another commodity name like (FCX) or buy back (TCK). Like to watch copper another day or 2. Already have lots of energy.
    12 May, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    (VALE)
    (http://bit.ly/AA4JjS)
    (http://bit.ly/r2x22e)
    (http://bit.ly/rDQwTw)
    (http://bit.ly/1cAoMi4)
    (TNH)
    12 May, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I'm in as soon as Dasilva -- think her name is -- polls to lose the election.

     

    As for (POT) -- prefer (CF). But thanks!

     

    http://reut.rs/SUJu5B

     

    Still not likely.
    12 May, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Election priced in and then some.
    12 May, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    I have a brother that is too busy working, so he really has a hard time with the stock market. On top of that, he's one of those "doom & gloom" types that sits on a lot of cash. So today, my husband called him, to ask him a non-stock question, and he just yelled "I don't want to hear it!" because he thought it was me (from the caller ID). Too funny. Then he told my husband to tell me to "shut up."

     

    LOL, don't think I'll call him until we have a down day.
    12 May, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    India, Indonesia and Malaysia look good to me at the moment.

     

    BSE SENSEX-India
    http://yhoo.it/1oJOVyc;range=1y;compare=;ind...

     

    Jakarta Index:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1oJOTX2;range=1y;compare=;ind...

     

    FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

     

    http://yhoo.it/1oJOTX6;range=1y;compare=;ind...

     

    I am playing Malaysia and Singapore through the ETFs EWM and EWS respectively

     

    For Indonesia, I own the CEF IF and may add to it.
    Cefconnect:

     

    http://bit.ly/1oJOVye

     

    That one has a 10 year annualized return of 17.54% based on net asset value.

     

    Another way to gain a concentrated portfolio for Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia is with the ETF ASEA, which is thinly traded. I had some orders in today at $16.52 and all of them got filled except for the one in my personal account, where I have bought and sold it at higher prices.

     

    Sponsor's site:
    http://bit.ly/1oJOVyg

     

    As of 3/31/14 ASEA Weightings
    Singapore at 37.86%
    Malaysia at 26.97%
    Indonesia at 17.47%
    Thailand at 14.65%
    Philippines at 3.04%

     

    Most of my exposure in that part of the world comes from two Matthews mutual funds. One, MAPTX, is closed to new investors and the other is MACSX. I will buy individual stocks listed in Hong Kong and Australia.

     

    USD priced funds that own EM stocks and bonds declined precipitously last year due in significant part to the rapid decline in EM currencies. That problem is shown by the charts such as the one for EWM between May and September 2013:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1oJOVyi;range=1y

     

    Latin America has a lot more problematic issues involving the relationship of government to business. EWZ is looking better starting in March, which is when the BRL stopped its slide against the USD and turned up, now trading above its 50 and 200 SMA lines:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1oJOTXa
    12 May, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Thanks for all the details! Those three are the ones that I've been thinking of.

     

    I have an Indian friend I'll have to ask what she thinks of the elections and so on.

     

    If EWZ has traded above SMAs, would you consider that a breakout and room for more growth? It's been up for folks here who got in when Tack was first mentioning it (I didn't.)
    14 May, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    Up over 10% now since April 1 including commission on (EWZ). Not really sure how to tell if I should hold for more growth or get out soon.
    14 May, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    CW, cool.

     

    Take half off and watch the polls for the fall election?
    14 May, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Well, I won't sound the all clear signal yet. I can't help feeling this week could be a head fake with too many short calls ahead of expiration, and too many traders short the nasdaq and russell, both due for corrections. We could easily trade above 1900 this week and be back down next once the market is more balanced. That's why I just bought options this morning.
    12 May, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message
     
    DD what are your thoughts on (LULU) at current prices?
    13 May, 04:14 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I don't really follow the lulu in depth, but I like the look of the chart (divergence on the weekly), but believe the company is overpriced unless their growth rate picks up.

     

    The company reports June 12th and I'd take a long call or call spread position into it, but not a stock position.
    13 May, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    "and too many traders short the nasdaq and russell, both due for corrections,"

     

    In contrast, this may add fuel to any breakout. There are plenty piled into that side of the trade..

     

    I wouldn't be a crazed buyer here simply because i have been in this market-

     

    BUT, i'm looking at select situations , especially tech related - that have already had their 'stealth" corrections. Plenty of attractive "setups" here .

     

    Best of luck ! :)
    13 May, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    F&G - I used that exact word - fuel- in my initial comment @ 3:47 pm yesterday.

     

    I've witnessed too many options expirations not to recognize that momentum plays an important role during the week as strikes are triggered. That's why I bought the calls; low risk, potentially big winners.
    13 May, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    From Bespoke Group

     

    Corp. Earnings
    http://bit.ly/1lsCuGq

     

    & Revenues

     

    http://bit.ly/1lsCuWG
    13 May, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    (PSEC)...down as low as $9.17 this morning
    13 May, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3582) | Send Message
     
    The yield will look fantastic for awhile, at least.
    13 May, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    some think this is an opportunity....price fell because of the SEC looking into (PSEC). Comments are good too, many are seizing this as a buying opportunity. Price is already up off the low

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 May, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    I noticed that Prospect Capital (PSEC) traded below $9.5 briefly this morning, hitting an intra-day low of $9.17.

     

    There were a couple of news items this morning. Nicholas Financial will make a decision by 6/12 on whether to proceed with its acquisition by PSEC. I doubt that the decision will be to proceed.

     

    The other involves PSEC increasing "total commitments to its five-year $1.0 billion revolving credit facility (the "Facility") by $45.0 million to $837.5 million in the aggregate."

     

    The company also made the following statements:

     

    "If these wholly-owned holding companies were to be consolidated for financial statement purposes, there would be no significant change in the leverage ratio of Prospect because there is no third party debt at any of these holding companies. Because the tax basis of these entities would not change, we expect there would be no negative effects on our taxable income from consolidation."

     

    http://mwne.ws/1lsDRVt
    13 May, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    S:

     

    This morning's action shows the lack of sophistication of many of PSEC's holders, who have panicked on almost meaningless news, as it relates to PSEC's future performance. It sure was a wonderful time to sell some long-dated ITM puts and/or buy cheap OTM calls.

     

    Folks may get yet another opportunity, depending on how the market reacts to the inevitable announcement that the holding companies will be consolidated, even though PSEC has already indicated the effects are de minimus.
    13 May, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    I should of seen the overreaction coming and sold my shares last week only to buy back in this morning. I know, that's market timing though.

     

    I'm too heavy in (PSEC) otherwise I'd of added this morning below $9.50. To add anymore I'd be breaking one of my rules.
    13 May, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    For me it depends on which account holds the stock. I sold all shares at $10.56 on 5/7, immediately after reading the SEC news, in a trust account.

     

    In my personal account, I am just holding, but my exposure is light. My only move may be to change the distribution option to reinvestment.

     

    I know what PSEC's management is saying, but I am not going to give them the benefit of the doubt.

     

    I did note that Scott Kennedy, who probably has the best understanding of the accounting issues among SA contributors, said that he was "currently" not selling but recommended caution on future purchases.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    He will have a detailed analysis of the potential impact later this week.
    13 May, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    volume over 10 mil at 10:11 am...has to be people getting stopped out.
    13 May, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    I'm waiting to see if the price holds as (PSEC) is one my larger holdings. Good time to lower your cost, but only if the price is not going lower....staying long. I already added to my original position previously but that $9.17 was tempting.
    13 May, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Cwinn, BSF, Tack

     

    Bet you are right that it was stopping out.

     

    I saw it at 7% down. ..thought "oh that's low" but didn't have an instinct to buy as oversold. Never even crossed my mine.

     

    >>"sell some long-dated ITM puts and/or buy cheap OTM calls."

     

    Sounds good -- as soon as I figure out what type of options those are. (I know the terms, but not the array of what's a available and what effects what.) Guess it's a way to participate long with limited risks?
    14 May, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Of all the reports this week I was most worried about the retail sales report. Despite the fact the report pretty much averaged out I didn't like it and sold the xrt calls I bought yesterday close to where I bought them.

     

    I believe the average US consumer is strapped and the report didn't say anything to change that view.
    13 May, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message
     
    report looked great to me
    13 May, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Small Business Optimism Hits Six and a Half Year High

     

    http://bit.ly/1gBpaeh
    13 May, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Small business as optimistic is a big chance of pace.... The economy's underpinnings are there. It's just grinding so slowly. ...probably the government's policies is a chunk of that. I wonder if this year elections with have a different effect on the market than usual, with the go'vt so stagnant as it is now.
    14 May, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    From the retail sales numbers this morning

     

    http://bit.ly/1je1RwY

     

    I believe this bodes well for a company like Advance Auto Parts (AAP)

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 May, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Anything new today?

     

    (LINE) is holding it's own slowly rising... maybe ready to start recovering soon (break out)?
    (I have a full position so I'm just holding, not buying.)
    14 May, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    LMH: With U.S. interest rates continuing to trend down, the same trades continue to work:

     

    LONG:

     

    Emerging Markets
    Bonds, Bond CEFs and Preferred Stocks
    Equity REITs (U.S. and Canadian)
    Energy-

     

    I bought the ETF ASEA yesterday, which I mentioned above, and it is up 1.4% today. All of my other EM ETFs are up anywhere from .81% for VWO to .51% for EEMV.

     

    EM stocks were hurt last year when U.S. interest rates rose and EM currencies went into the hopper. With U.S. rates declining again this year, and many EM currencies gaining strength against the USD, the backdrop has improved for both EM stocks and bonds. I discussed adding an EM bond CEF ESD, now trading at $18.15, at $17.28 in a 4/12/14 blog along with 250 shares of the CEF JDD that owns senior secured loans, REITs and foreign bonds.

     

    I previously mentioned that I did a significant rotation into Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stocks starting last September and that basket is up today led by several Canadian REITs including Dream Global REIT (up 1.8%), Canadian Apartments (up 1.38%) and Dream Office REIT (Up .75%) and a few American REITs led by OHI (up 1.54%) and DLR.

     

    I recently added an international REIT available at Fidelity commission free, IFGL, and it is up .73%.

     

    The primary sector drag for me continues to be regional bank stocks which are in correction territory. Market participants believe that a decline in rates is negative for them since it places additional pressure on net interest rate margins. I am adding some in small amounts now, mainly those yielding over 5% and falling into my buy ranges. An example would be CZNC, yielding close to 5.6% at a $18.48 price and FNLC which I recently bought at $15.6. I expect pricing pressure to remain for several more weeks so there is no rush to do anything in that sector now in my opinion.

     

    My leading Lottery Ticket unrealized gain, AMOT up over a 100%, reported good earnings today and is up up over 6%.

     

    Several energy companies are up including CNQ which I own and CVX which I do not own. The ETF FENY is up fractionally so far.
    14 May, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message
     
    Line is terribly overvalued.
    14 May, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    How so on (LINE)?

     

    I'm down 12%. It dropped, but then went through a short raid (and a Crammer sell for KMP). Then leveled into a trading range, and is first showing signs of life now.

     

    I have a hard time with MLPs (complicated to figure). But they're paying a nice dividend. So far holding it, but only by a thread (DCF is tight). When they integrate the Berry acquisition, it should give better total numbers... and they're aiming to sell some property.
    14 May, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message
     
    i was looking at their 2012 financials; that definitely shows dividend being paid from debt and stock issues. 3rd qtr results are lot better and div is being paid from cash flow (in fact they are paying every penny of it); however their PV10 value is around 6B$ and enterprise value around 13 B$. So you are paying 1.7 $ for 1 $ worth of asset.
    14 May, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I'm holding on to (LINE) , just let it throw off the monthly dist. payments.
    14 May, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Yair -

     

    i wont get into a long drawn out discussion here on (LiNE)-- I have a completely different take on the MLP..

     

    I have posted numerous comments here on articles regarding the MLP. When the same arguments were made to sell the shares.

     

    To date the assessment i rendered when the stock was trashed and sold @ $20 , holds true.

     

    Nothing has changed my opinion and the "Berry" deal is a windfall for the company ..
    14 May, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Yair,

     

    "I won't discuss it".

     

    Sounds like a good answer to an apparently irrelevant comment about the financials to Line bulls -LOL --- that the dividends are not supported by the underlying business. (but who cares as its a DIVIDEND)

     

    That would seem to be not a sustainable model if true. No position -- just wonder about that sort of process in making an investment.

     

    Reminds me of pilots I've heard of, who look at a sliver of blue sky above them and declare it's a fine day for flying, all while a giant thunderstorm is bearing down.
    14 May, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    what is your problem ?

     

    & its DISTRIBUTION not a dividend
    that is well covered ---

     

    I simply stated i didn't want to get into a long drawn out discussion -- the commentary I wrote on (LINE) was 5- 6 paragraphs in length. no need to go thru that again here ..

     

    MOVE ON ------& take your negative commentary to my blog and I'll deal with u there rather than disrupt this blog
    14 May, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    It's not negative commentary, sir, to question a process on an equity you've recommended, and people are losing money on btw, where the sum of the process I can see is " I'm holding on for the monthly distributions"

     

    That works, until it doesn't anymore.

     

    I buy good Businesses with Good Management -- not Good dividends or distributions -- get the process here.

     

    Not crap managers like (BAC) who doesn't even know the accounting going on in his own bank.

     

    I suggest getting out of my way. I am attempting to share some investment principles here. I'd prefer if you dont like it, keep your comments to yourself.
    14 May, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    part of my commentary on (LINE) -- I purchased shares @ 20 ..

     

    MOVE ON -----

     

    & the declaration you made on the "banks" -- we'll revisit that later in the year ;)

     

    'investment " principles ??? out of your way Please !!!-- LOL

     

    here is some DOCUMENTATION - Sir

     

    http://bit.ly/1kQlubB

     

    & I'll answer any flip comment u decide to make .. get used to it .. Sir !!

     

    14 May, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    I'm not wrong -- I'm early.

     

    Right. That's the "financial adviser" spin.

     

    Sorry I'm not a ego - stroking "yes man".

     

    Just telling it the way I see it.
    14 May, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    relax, dont worry -

     

    we'll revisit the banks later - --

     

    & plenty of other comments like that :)

     

    http://bit.ly/1oQuD6b

     

    enjoy the evening :)

     

    14 May, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    & no spin here at all------- just documentation

     

    http://bit.ly/1kQlubB

     

    :)
    14 May, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Y

     

    (LINE)'s 2012 and before was shakier. Where did you get the PV10 & enterprise values from; or more to the question, how did you get them so fast?
    14 May, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I'd read this outlook from Regarded before putting a dime in (BAC). Regarded tells it like it is.

     

    No stock is cheap where you cannot trust the accounting. That goes for (LINE) too.
    14 May, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I'd like more on how you're figuring on (LINE)'s distributions. Any chance you can find the link to the article you talked about it in? (I looked at the list but haven't found it yet.) I bet I can understand more now than last time I read it.

     

    I called it a dividend - but technically, it's a distribution... so sorry for the relaxed wording.
    14 May, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    (LINE)'s accounting issues were put aside. They didn't turn out to be something.

     

    I'm not diving into (http://bit.ly/v9b99Q) quickly. Their errors were more crooked than I'm comfortable with.
    14 May, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    relax, dont worry -

     

    we'll revisit the banks later - --

     

    & plenty of other comments like that :)

     

    "No stock is cheap where you cannot trust the accounting. That goes for (LINE) too."

     

    Cant wait to revisit this one in a few months :)

     

    http://bit.ly/1oQuD6b
    14 May, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    @ macro

     

    & perhaps we can look at a no spin zone with Documentation here :

     

    http://bit.ly/1kQlubB

     

    take the arguments and silly rhetoric there --
    14 May, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    That'll be forty lashes!
    14 May, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M,

     

    Ot oh!

     

    Sigh, makes me think of mascara (lashes) I bought from Clinique at Lord & Taylor & tried out today. I don't think L&T are doing well. (Hum, wonder if they are a Macy's type turn around story; I haven't looked.) And the mascara was a marketing gimmick. Used to be able to count on clinique for quality. Hope that's not a change.
    14 May, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    L, Macro,

     

    Lets start with an article from Bret Jensen - if u want another opinion

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and another from Bret
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    & then look at my commentary on this article

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and here

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and there are other articles on (LINE) if u need more
    14 May, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    or shall i write 6 paragraphs on this situation now--

     

    its history - we WILL revisit the commentary offered by "macrotrader" here in a few months
    14 May, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    or shall i write 6 paragraphs on the (LINE) situation now--

     

    its history - and trust me , we WILL revisit the (LINE) commentary offered by "macrotrader" here in a few months.
    14 May, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PS The sigh, is that a joke made me think of stocks :).
    14 May, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Well --- if the Dow shoots to 20,000, and/ or BAC strikes gold under their corporate HQ, the stock might go up. Anything's possible. Same with LINE. Make that a lot of gold to move BAC, perhaps. Perhaps there are millions of ounces hidden on countrywides balance sheet.

     

    However having no position, I'm making no predictions on the rationality of investors to buy up stocks with open accounting -- or sustainable distribution -- question marks.

     

    Just not my cup of tea when you have an absolute universe of choices out there.

     

    You need to relax, Fear. Not everyone has to agree with you 24/7. That would be dull, yes?
    14 May, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    U started this with another inane comment..

     

    & so i repeat --- relax, don't worry -

     

    we'll revisit the banks later - --

     

    & plenty of other comments like this :)

     

    "No stock is cheap where you cannot trust the accounting. That goes for (LINE) too."

     

    Can't wait to revisit this one in a few months :)

     

    and "others", many others in the "universe" are all here my friend

     

    http://bit.ly/1kQlubB

     

    no one needs to agree - anyone can take it for what its worth - but rest assured its documented..
    14 May, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -everyone...

     

    I went looking for a joke on chilling out. Didn't find that, but did find this:
    http://bit.ly/1oRa4Xb
    14 May, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    I can't help feeling that unless there's a major world slowdown in the offing these low yields are an accident waiting to happen. The only question is when. Lend France money for 10 years at 1.8%? Who is stupid enough to do that? Yet I can't dispute that's where it's trading.

     

    Everytime I look at this link, which is just about every day, I shake my head.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1b1LnFr
    14 May, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message
     
    If one were inclined to short the euro what would be a simple way to do this?

     

    I don't have much experience in the currency markets.
    14 May, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    I have no idea. Anyone here do Forex or know good sources?
    14 May, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    You can short futures, or short the fxe, but selling the euro has been a widow maker. People have been bearish for years and it seems to confound everyone.
    14 May, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Regional banks sounds interesting. Big banks seem to be taking hits - some on news of manipulation. But the sector as a whole if I'm catching enough news blurbs.

     

    Does any of this have fallout for Canadian banks? DD had several strong ones listed.

     

    I still feel like I'm buying at the top on a lot of sectors... And for retail, they did okay, but not stellar.

     

    EM's been down for a few years. But if they are up on lowered rates, and weaker USD... is that a risk for these to be "swing trades" that will be down again a lot on the next news or impact in these areas?
    14 May, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I do not fool with the big banks. I invest in mostly micro caps that are prudently managed and have none of the problems infesting BAC and other larger institutions that almost sank the world's financial system back in 2008. I prefer banks where Masters of Disaster are not welcomed.

     

    Today, I bought in a family's members account just 50 shares of MBVT at a cent above the closing price. MBVT is a small bank based in Vermont that fell almost 5% today. At today's close, the dividend yield is close to 4%; the TTM P/E is close to 12 and the forward P/E is 11.65:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1oQfhP0

     

    The dividend was not cut during the Dark Period.

     

    Earnings will probably be flat this year as the bank spends a lot of money for it, given its small size, on technology upgrades.

     

    During the Near Depression, this bank's non-performing loans did not even go over 1% as a percentage of total loans (NPL Ratio).

     

    This is a chart showing the average NPLs for all banks:

     

    St Louis Fed Chart: "Nonperforming Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans for all U.S. Banks"
    http://bit.ly/1oQfhP2

     

    Now, MBVT has an NPL ratio of just .09%:

     

    http://mwne.ws/1oQfkdR

     

    The coverage ratio is 1210%, that is, the allowances already made for bad loans as a percentage of NPLs.

     

    So that kind of bank is not Bank of America. Its bread and butter are mortgage loans to customers that they know and to small businesses.

     

    I do not own any Canadian banks but I did buy earlier this week, and have not yet discussed in my blog, a Canadian ETF that yield about 6.6%, paid in monthly installments, that owns the Canadian banks and insurance companies, plus two income Canadian ETFs, one of which I already own:

     

    Canadian Financial Monthly Income ETF
    http://bit.ly/1oQfku5

     

    Emerging markets have been weak and have substantially underperformed developed markets. That is not a reason to avoid them. Valuations are reasonable and their currencies are doing better. If interest rise rapidly in the U.S. again, then many of those markets will suffer another rapid decline in their currencies and investor flight, similar to what happened starting in May 2013. But, the long term story is still in place. I view the long term story as extremely positive for the EMs and for multinationals in developed markets.

     

    The current estimate is that over 3 billion new middle class consumers will be added worldwide over the next 2 decades, mostly in EM countries. There are now 525M people in ASIA alone that are in the middle class according to Ernest & Young, more than the current population of the European Union:

     

    http://bit.ly/1nCbR2y

     

    I prefer Asia to Latin America, and that is what I am mostly playing now. Long term, I am doing that with two Matthew funds, as noted above.

     

    I am doing mostly intermediate term trades with ETFs and CEFs. I mentioned above ASEA (just bought yesterday), EWM, EWS, IR and CHN. I also own some broader EM stock ETFs and CEFs including MSF, VWO, PIE (selections made on technical criteria), EEMV and IEMG. Some of those are being bought in small purchases commission free in one of my brokerage accounts.

     

    EEMV and IEMG are available at Fidelity commission free and VWO can be bought in TD Ameritrade and Vanguard brokerage accounts without incurring a commission (though you need to sign up at TD first)
    14 May, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    (MBVT) - that is one well managed bank. I shopped around for a loan, and wound up at my long time credit union. Good service to go with a great price.

     

    MBVT is near it's 52 week low. Decent P/E. They're under their 50 & 200 SMAs. Is that a concern in any way? They have almost 3x as much debit to cash. Is that standard (in their line of business); good, bad? Why did you buy a limited amount? (I'm asking these question in the hopes of learning more on how to assess various stocks. As well as considering if I'd want to buy.)

     

    On EMs it's the long term story that you're looking at. And that they've been down so much, that they have room to grow. If they come down again through that range, it'd just be another trip through... Sounds good. ...thanks for all the names to look into...
    14 May, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    LMH: There is really little long term debt. Most of what you are seeing is a "repo" agreement where the company raises cash by selling securities that it owns with an agreement to back them back.

     

    Securities sold under agreements to repurchase, short-term: $209,589,000

     

    See Page 35:
    http://1.usa.gov/1osmTdf

     

    The capital ratios are good and can be found at page 37 in the 10-Q linked above.

     

    Most of the debt is a junior subordinated debenture in the principal amount of $20.19M

     

    The rate on that trust preferred security is 3 month Libor + 1.95%, or slightly over 2% now.

     

    Page 30:
    http://1.usa.gov/1osmRSK

     

    Most regional banks are in correction territory, down 10% or more this year.

     

    The concern is that the decline in interest rates will negatively impact net interest margins, the spread between their cost of funds and the interest earned on loans. The former has already hit rock bottom. The compression of the net interest margin due to lower loan rates is a negative. The question is how long will it last.

     

    There are some offsets however.

     

    Many of these small banks suffered a loss of income from new mortgage originations last year when rates rose. Mortgage applications are now increasing again:

     

    http://bit.ly/1osmS8Y

     

    These banks own a lot of assets that go up in value when rates go down, making it possible to sell securities for profits.

     

    The pressure on these small banks is likely to last for awhile, but I have found them rewarding over the years.

     

    I have snapshots of my realized gains 2010 to date in my regional bank Gateway Post:

     

    http://bit.ly/WbVA5R

     

    Realized Gains Small Lots: $15,808+
    Dividends 2010-2013=$6,623+

     

    Last Update 4/28/14:
    Scroll to 3. Update for Regional Bank Basket Strategy:
    http://bit.ly/1rYUevy

     

    For regional banks, I use a basket approach which means that I will own a number of them, with several 50 and 100 share positions.

     

    It is not unusual for me to buy 50 shares when a security is falling a lot and then buy 50 more when and if the slide accelerates. I have already identified the current price as attractive and would not mind buying another 50 share lot at a lower price. If I do so, I might sell the highest cost lot when and if the price breaks above $32 again.

     

    ***********

     

    I play the EM story primarily through U.S. and European multinationals. For local stocks in those countries, I will use funds almost, though not entirely, exclusively.

     

    I would not own KO at its current price if it was only in developed market, for example.
    14 May, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    We had a down day, looks like some cracking in the market, so I've changed my mind and gone substantially short.

     

    The top may be in.
    14 May, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Did I mention I'm kidding?
    14 May, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Macro

     

    Glad you said kidding -- I was thinking that's a lot of whipsaw to turn around that much :).

     

    By top I mean it's based on PEs and prices... the down day certainly didn't make me think weak.
    14 May, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Good thing you're kidding. It may be the right thing to do, but with so many economic reports coming out tomorrow it would have been dangerous.

     

    I did little today; traded a few options but that's it.
    14 May, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD, Macro

     

    I've been surprised not to seem more selloff days in between the up days.
    14 May, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - I've been taking a break & getting flowers in the ground (and other stuff).

     

    (HD) was clever this year. They packaged in different sizes in the middle of the smaller cheap and larger expensive of the past, then marked them on sale... and turnover was fast.

     

    I figure it's an investment in my health to have things looking nice... Plus my neighbors take my planting in the common area, as a chance to hang out and get to know each other. ...learn the gossip.
    14 May, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - My small cap index is down (duh). Seems a good time to make some parallel moves to individual names that could come back better or pay a div meanwhile. Any that took a hit along with the rest that you're checking into?

     

    (GILD) is one but it's up not down.
    14 May, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    Two cents:

     

    No need to debate where the bottom is in small caps or which tech firm looks undervalued in the pullback. You can buy emerging-market issues, which individually and collectively are advancing and have a very long way to go to recover lost value

     

    Makes life a lot easier.

     

    Today in Brazil, for example: http://yhoo.it/1oQ1Kaa
    14 May, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    How about buying into both?

     

    I'm not as interested in the bottom in small caps. This is down enough. It's if there are a few names I can use as mid or longer term investments... so it's a good time to look into them (for the money that's already allocated to that sector.)

     

    Nice chart on those Brazil issues.
    14 May, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    What's your view on (TCRD)? BDCs have been down, but this one seems to be really sliding like something's wrong. BSF and I are both down in it. I'm not subscribed to BDCBuzz, and haven't seen much written on it.
    14 May, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    LMH, I'm getting my you know what handed to me on (TCRD), but I'm staying long reinvesting div's. Like tack says I'm thinking it has a lot to do with the indices. I have time on my side.
    14 May, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    I don't think TCRD has been beat up much more than many names in the space. This has all been a result of the need for index funds to liquidate the shares and the resulting CW that they'll somehow have a harder time raising capital.

     

    I'd look for the selling to abate very soon, as all indices must be devoid of the funds by June. Once that occurs, I suspect the follow-on selling from nervous retailers will abate, too.

     

    The whole sector is now selling around 95% of NAV, on average. I don't think it will go too much lower.

     

    My potential best bets, based on valuation, include:

     

    (PSEC)
    (BKCC)
    (AINV)
    (ACAS)

     

    More speculative buys:
    (MCGC) [acquisition candidate]
    (NGPC)

     

    Most Rock-Solid BDC:
    (ARCC)
    14 May, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    I have (TCAP), (TCRD) and until the other day (PSEC). TCRD has been down more on down days, up less on up days, and generally very cranky. (Or is it me that's getting cranky at it?)

     

    Anyway, I'm going to try this... link to a comparison chart, (TCRD) TCAP) (BKCC) (PSEC):
    http://yhoo.it/1oQLaHl

     

    It's considerably more down, over as much as 15% more. Especially taking into account (PSEC)'s recent drop is unrelated.

     

    Interesting - if retail selling abates, these are buys at these prices (before June and popping back up, so maybe buy very soon..?)
    14 May, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    I did absolutely nothing today, and yesterday was a flying day, all day. One thing better than trading, that's flying, even in weather like we've been having. Nothing like being at the controls high above the earth.

     

    Taking SG's advice. Its been a blowout start to the year, and I'm quite content with my longer term positions. Aapl and gild look good, and love the energy as we move into AC and driving season.
    14 May, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    Macro: As I said earlier, I would take the entire year off, rather than just one day, provided I was up 25% Y-T-D which could conceivably happen in my portfolio by year end at my current pace.

     

    The CAD is moving up some against the USD. I would not be surprised to see it pierce the 200 SMA within the next 30 days:

     

    CAD/USD
    http://yhoo.it/MG7fdW;range=1y

     

    Since the CAD bottomed around 3/20/14, my Canadian ADR CNQ have been receiving the currency conversion tailwind and the ordinary shares have been moving up at the same time-the twofer.

     

    Consequently, my NYSE listed Canadian shares are outperforming the ordinary shares priced in CADS over the past two months.

     

    This link may show a comparison chart between CNQ and CA:CNQ since 3/20/14:

     

    http://bit.ly/1oQmL4K

     

    Another one of my Canadian ADR positions, Suncor, is moving up nicely too.

     

    The Canadian energy ETF, ENY, which is priced in USDs has made a move up too.

     

    http://bit.ly/1oQmLl0
    14 May, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    (GILD), (AAPL) :)

     

    no "spin" here on (GILD) - just "documentation"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    or (AAPL)

     

    http://bit.ly/1inasMm
    14 May, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Gee, I'm long both of those as well.

     

    You don't need to promote. I'm not looking for an advisor.
    14 May, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Macro

     

    promoting - nope -

     

    DOCUMENTING is more like it ..

     

    I guess u don't like the links I provided cause they are in fact -- documented.

     

    win lose or draw the posts are there for all to see.

     

    give it a try , whats the issue , u r after all a professional trader and proud of it ..

     

    so it shouldn't be an issue for u to give everyone an insight into your results.

     

    then I'l gladly step out of your way and let u instruct us all
    15 May, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    The whole Canadian sector is starting to go after being ignored for so long. CNQ is a solid choice. Wait till oil hits 120, which I think will happen, they will blow the roof off the sector.
    14 May, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    SG

     

    "up 25% Y-T-D " --- of course-- LOL
    14 May, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1hnGZ0L

     

    ......:)
    14 May, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1oQuD6b

     

    ......:)
    14 May, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    I'm not selling an investment service and so focused on the image, sir. No book. No newsletter.

     

    My trades have been pretty well documented.
    14 May, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    I wasn't available most of the day but happen to see some news that inflation was reported up today. If so why would rates fall today. 10 yr was lowest since Oct 2013?
    14 May, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2522) | Send Message
     
    CWinn1970: That was the producer price index:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1osgP4y

     

    Part of that is catch up from the decline in February due to the weather.

     

    But it also may presage a rise in the core CPI to 2%:
    http://read.bi/1osgMFQ

     

    The recent decline in intermediate and long term treasury rates is unrelated to inflation or inflation expectations. The inflation expectation numbers embodied in the pricing of the TIPs (5, 10, and 20 years) have remained relatively constant as 10 to 30 year treasury rates have moved down.

     

    I believe that the recent decline in intermediate and longer term interest rates is due to increased demand for treasuries occurring at a time when the FED owns over 50% of maturities after 2023:

     

    NY FED-Click "T-Notes and T-Bonds" tab and then scroll down and look under the column titled "% of Total
    Outstanding"
    http://nyfed.org/12yg38A

     

    For maturities in the 2/15/37 to 5/15/42 range, the FED owns over 50%.

     

    For maturities listed between 11/15/24 to 5/15/42, the FED owns over 50% of the outstanding numbers with two exceptions.

     

    The increased demand and the shortage of product to buy has caused treasury note and bond prices to rise at a time when they would ordinarily be stable. The result is that the real yield of the ten year treasury is now estimated by the market to be about .37% per annum, well below the historical average without FED intervention of 2% to 2.25% for the ten year.

     

    I have been discussing this intersection of growing demand and limited supply for awhile now.

     

    It is being picked up in the mainstream media:

     

    http://bloom.bg/1g3eVz7

     

    This view was expressed by BlackRock's top strategist Russ Koesterich in a recent Barron's interview:

     

    http://bit.ly/1nzy8hq

     

    Some of the demand is coming from foreign governments and pension plans. The usual buying is coming from the risk off crowd who are convinced now that stocks are overvalued and overdue for a correction.
    14 May, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    (CSCO) - looks like they aren't quite dead just yet..

     

    http://bit.ly/1oslZNR

     

    a 2014 "dog of the Dow" pick -- already up 9% this year.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 May, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    The other issue with European 10 year bonds (and subsequent impact on the US 10 year) is this key sentence from an April Financial Times article I couldn't link.

     

    "At present, the Basel II framework on banking supervision allows national regulators to treat sovereign debt as risk free, meaning banks do not have to hold any capital against it in order to comply with global rules."

     

    The following Bloomberg article says basically the same thing:

     

    http://bloom.bg/1oQQ1IB

     

    None of this is new, but a reminder why 10 year European yields are so low - and just one of the reasons why the US 10 year yields continue to trade lower despite the hotter PPI figures.

     

    It appears this is being reviewed, but what we all know how glacially government entities move.

     

    http://buswk.co/1osnknZ
    14 May, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    "10 year treasuries yield 2.5%, investors could make more money in stocks and yet investors choose to buy treasuries. Why?" - Michelle Caruso Cabrera

     

    Cramer thinks people are "once burnt, twice shy." Not willing to take risk in stocks and especially large banks since 2008.

     

    Walmart reported disappointing results, so did Kohl's this am. Previously, Macy's results were good.

     

    Real estate is not rebounding. People are not buying houses at the rate they were pre 2008. House prices went up too fast & most folks are smart enough not to buy at these prices. Plus, if you don't have a huge down payment (more than 20%) and sterling credit, banks don't want to give you a mortgage. Naturally the seller prefers cash buyers. Many times, by the time you get to closing problems can develop if the buyer, initially approved for a mortgage, now gets rejected. Because the buyer loses her job, wrecks her credit by leasing a new car.....anything can happen. But cash is cash. If the buyer refuses to close (in a cash deal), the seller can sue or just keep the deposit, which if it's 20% of the purchase price could be over $50,000. A contract is a contract, which lawyers love to defend, unless there is a mortgage clause.

     

    So what is really going on? The German 1st Q GDP is 2.5% this quarter (just reported on SA front page).

     

    Meanwhile, the US GDP was 0.1 or less? Houston, we have a problem. Yup the weather was bad, or is it something else?

     

    I tend to agree with Cramer. People are not going $100,000 in debt on credit cards like they used to. They are making do with the homes they have, not buying up. Jobs are not as good as they used to be so most people are making less $ now.

     

    The economy is you & me, shopping for food, clothes, TVs, going on vacation, out to eat, buying a new car etc. etc. Yes it's true, our state of mind affects the economy. When we feel good, we spend more.

     

    Wealthy people spend the most, but even they will cut back if they feel the future is not golden.

     

    Macy's (and Kors, Tiffany, other luxury brands) will still do well because they have wealthier clients. I suspect Walmart & Kohl's didn't do as well because at the lower end, people don't have as much money. Food stamps were cut in the US. That hit Walmart hard.

     

    We do see parts of the economy doing better. But we have a ways to go before our psyche feels it's okay to spend money again. Being an optimist & a believer in the USA, we will come out of this soon. Oil, gas, railroads, plenty of industries are starting to hum. Raise the minimum wage...people are making less at the minimum wage now then they were in the 1970s, in comparable value.

     

    I loved seeing a report on CNBC.com that Alibaba buyers prefer "Made in USA" to "Made in China." My sentiments exactly.
    15 May, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    "Walmart reported disappointing results, so did Kohl's this am. Previously, Macy's results were good."

     

    It's a common occurrence that when things are getting better the higher-end retailers do better and the low-end guys disappoint, as people trade up. The reverse is seen when economies roll over.

     

    You should rejoice that people are not buying houses at the 2008 rate. That was fantasy land, with completely unqualified and fraudulent buyers making deals. Housing prices, if not growth rates, have returned to parity with comparable rental costs, as was the case for decades prior to the pre-2008 insanity. And, with qualified borrowers and a large number of cash deals, the risk of a credit bubble in homes is presently zero.

     

    As for overall economic growth rates, while they're lower than some might like, they are very sweet for investors because a slow steady rate of growth is much more sustainable for long periods than a heated-up economy, growing at 5, 6 or 7%. The latter, too, tends to get everyone giddy, and seduces them into euphoric stock buying, which can be seen when volumes multiply and the growth curve lurches upward, away from its trend line. When an investor sees that, he/she should be in a state of high caution.

     

    So, overall, just enjoy the slow, boring, doubted and complained-about economy we have. It's produced a low-volatility, upward-moving market environment.
    15 May, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    T,BSF,

     

    may not be shopping @ wal mart but it looks like many are travelling out there .. :)

     

    http://bit.ly/1nS2jR8
    15 May, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    I have to say several things are bugging me this morning.

     

    1) The refusal of markets to rally on good data. Next, continuing Small cap weakness. Next, continuing long bond strength. Next, David Tepper getting cautious -- Mr. Hedge fund bull himself at the 2011 / 2012 lows, The street listens to Tepper. Finally, a potential failed breakout for the SPX above the new highs.

     

    I'll be watching real closely and may change exposure if this keeps up.

     

    This time I'm not kidding.
    15 May, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Your reaction just confirms that you should only be a short-term trader.

     

    This market has slowly oscillated higher for five-plus years, all the while doubted and very much unloved. Nothing has changed.

     

    Small-cap weakness was a needed return to reality. It's good, not bad, news. More importantly, the strength in EE is an extremely positive indicator, in comparison.

     

    Look at the chart on the 10-year: http://yhoo.it/1nRVj6N;range=1y

     

    What we see now is merely a slow leak of air out of inflated yields that were mistakenly run up on misapprehension of the effects of QE removal. The same folks that thought QE lowered rates radically were just as wrong that QE's removal would rise them dramatically. The current movement is simply this realization dawning.

     

    Lastly, I don't care if it's Tepper or any other pundit. They all have opinions and change them every other day, not to mention that many have hidden ulterior motives for wanting to see markets, or segments thereof, move one way or another. Better stick to data, not hot air, a much better indicator.
    15 May, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    concerning Teppers "cautious" comments -- who isn't somewhat 'cautious" at S & P 1900 ?

     

    I may be in the dark here , but i haven't read any "all in " articles lately ..

     

    In my view ---just the opposite..
    15 May, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    F&G:

     

    Everybody's always nervous at every new top in history. In this instance, folks have been nervous for five-plus years, now. How could we tell the difference?
    15 May, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    T, the gold bugs have quieted down, or maybe I'm just on the wrong blog. People here are not the "stocking my bomb shelter with canned goods, guns & gold" types.

     

    That's why I like it here....good discussion of ideas and free of gloom & doomers.
    15 May, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    T,
    we can't -- LOL
    15 May, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    Interesting chart on the housing market recovery

     

    sorry I couldn't get a larger image..

     

    http://bit.ly/1nS3LTp
    15 May, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    F&G, that map looks good. It shows mortgage payments going lower, as a percentage of income. Low mortgage rates allowed many to refinance, lowering their payment. It's true that most households are in a better position financially now than say 2009.

     

    I do think people are smart not to pay high prices right now for real estate. Prices rose too fast, which hurts the low end buyer the most. Mortgage rates ticked up a little too; both of these developments have slowed down real estate purchases.

     

    In my town, the best deals are at the high end. Plus, the most houses for sale are in the high end (well over a million). The low end & middle range buyers have the fewest homes to choose from. Again, people are smart. Who wants the big McMansion, with property taxes over $40,000 a year, plus huge bills for utilities? Our property taxes only go one way here in NJ....up.

     

    All real estate is local. Notice how Mass. & CA have the highest mortgage payments compared to income. Various states in the midwest are doing the best (greenest) on the map.
    15 May, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3582) | Send Message
     
    Our assessed value went down this year for tax purposes. :) I'm expecting a sub-$1k property tax bill as a result. :)
    15 May, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    There you go again, making me jealous, lol!

     

    My Mom's property taxes are really low too. She's in the midwest. Tells me the farmers are waiting for more good weather before planting crops. They've had an unusually cool spring. Had a little snowstorm in May.

     

    Here in Vito Christie land, we have had a cool spring too. I love it, temps in the mid 60's. Maybe I can save some $ on utilities this year, to help pay my property taxes.
    15 May, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Where's all the short covering? Isn't it options expiration tomorrow?
    15 May, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    L - Momentum works both ways. Now they're tripping through strikes on the downside. I'm keeping my powder dry until late in the session. I did buy a small amt of msft at a gap and its holding its own, but I don't like how the market is acting.

     

    It could be a bloodbath today since I'm sure many were downside spy puts. The market has no bounce and even the so-called safety plays and value couldn't hold their opening levels. Wouldn't be surprised to see the s&P down to its 100 dma either today or tomorrow. That's another 1% from here.
    15 May, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12724) | Send Message
     
    DD:

     

    The market is way overloaded on market puts. Just wait until late tomorrow, when they start cashing them all in.
    15 May, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    You could be correct that it's tomorrow, but I will start later today and buy more if tomorrow is weak. In past option expiration weeks it's either Thurs or Fri when the market tops/bottoms, but often late Thursday.
    15 May, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks DD!

     

    Interesting (IWM) bounced a little, when the other indices stayed down.
    15 May, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    Whatever. On the open I sold a chunk of stock (the tech stuff) and hedged the rest with short ETF's and futures, so I'm effectively flat to slightly short.
    15 May, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Macro, you can still make money shorting the crazy stocks. But that is getting harder (because they have fallen a lot), just as going long is getting harder as there are fewer companies out there with low PE ratios & good growth prospects.

     

    This is a good market for us turtles tho. We can keep buying shares of our favorite blue ribbon, dividend payers as their prices dip.

     

    Here are my "emerging market" stocks: (KKD) (KO) (PEP) (MCD) (DNKN) (SBUX) and soon, drug companies will be selling more of their diabetic meds, diet pills, etc. Sadly, American culture continues to be popular ; )

     

    I was wondering, what kind of plane do you fly? Hoping it's made by (BA) or (LMT).
    15 May, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    macro

     

    On the open I sold a chunk of stock (the tech stuff)

     

    u cal this documentation ? laughable

     

    http://bit.ly/1oQuD6b

     

    ok, if that is documentation --

     

    well let me divulge that I bought some stock today ---

     

    & I am long some positions but only I know the price and the names . cause i want to make sure they go up .. before i divulge them ..

     

    or in your case u want to make sure they go down

     

    Laughable
    15 May, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    You are a joke. I posted right below to BSF the stocks and prices.

     

    Get a life, troll. Sell your 995 newsletter to some other suckers.

     

    Ridiculous the comments from the peanut gallery. I'd put my record up against yours, anytime.
    15 May, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro

     

    It's a bit much to be insulting someone's career in front of others... whether or not you respect it. Or calling them troll.

     

    You went into personal land back a bit... and got this going... can we back it out. You're better than this.

     

    FG

     

    Macro has posted his trades.
    15 May, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    He's losing money then attacks me.

     

    A FRUSTRATED BULL WITH A LOSING STRATEGY.

     

    Otherwise he would post his YTD RETURN.
    15 May, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    When did he attack you today? He didn't that I can see. That bear comment wasn't at you.... I posted an explanation about that above (or below).

     

    We know you don't respect each other... so that's not new :).
    15 May, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Macro has posted nothing but generalities

     

    If I am incorrect with that statement--- then please tell me how much you would have made today on his 'trades"

     

    he can insult all he wishes - he has no credibility UNTIL he posts some documentation
    his "trades" are meaningless words.

     

    time to put an end to this masquerade..
    15 May, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    He posted with dollar amounts (not with $ sign, but numbers after the items bought or sold). I'd have to search for it but one was with 81.
    15 May, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4532) | Send Message
     
    @ macro

     

    post documentation to get credibility

     

    my blog all DOCUMENTED is here

     

    pick it apart

     

    http://bit.ly/1o2xAE0

     

    so far your documentation is i shorted sone tech stuff

     

    get lost
    15 May, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG & Macro

     

    NO ONE has to prove their posts here! No one has to post their returns or personal info!

     

    It might be nice. It might be convincing. It might even be okay to ask politely.

     

    But if the answer doesn't come... leave it be. The rest of us can judge for ourselves. We don't need your upset to know what we've seen.

     

    ... I know this flies against logic for both of you, but several of us have seen value in both your styles and trades :). I've seen wins on both sides personally.
    15 May, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    @FG

     

    Get lost loser troll.

     

    My trades are posted with prices.

     

    You are jealous and losing money.

     

    Get off this blog. You are costing people money.

     

    You will ride the market down.

     

    I'll repeat my shorts from the 1027 comment to BSF.

     

    Sold GiLD 81
    Aapl 595

     

    Shorted Nasdaq 3490 June futures
    IWM around where it closed today, don't recall, no profit. Same with bank index, around 21.75
    Shorted BAC 14.50

     

    Want to debate the prices?

     

    Move on troll.
    15 May, 10:35 PM