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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #29 182 comments
    Jun 10, 2014 2:59 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #29. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #28: seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land... (I've been putting in the right links, but sometimes this doesn't seem to work correctly. You can always go to my profile, then to my instablogs, and find the latest.)

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    seekingalpha.com/user/706857/instablog

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!. Several have their own instablogs with their ideas outlined well!

    Disclosure: The author is long SPY, IWM, DIA, QQQ, LINE, CVX.

    Additional disclosure: ...and more... ask me if you're curious!

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (182)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Hi everyone!

     

    Please post whatever comments or questions you have!

     

    I just saw the ad for stand up entry bathtubs. Anyone checked for companies behind some of these medical devices...?

     

    I was vacationing over the weekend, and my friend tells me her U.S. engineering firmware (software) job will be outsourced within 5 years and she'll never get another high level position at the same salary. It's one of the last in her company to stay stateside. Is there a way to invest in the overseas growth that will be gaining from these jobs moving overseas (beyond straight general EM investing)?
    10 Jun, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    L, there is a shortage of skilled people....electrical & computer engineering jobs are not getting filled due to not enough candidates. I've been talking about this for over a year,
    finally here is an actual article published today

     

    "Jobs are available but Americans lack skills"

     

    http://cnb.cx/1phpJm2

     

    My husband is an electrical & computer engineer so he knows this field well. He also has friends/relatives all over the US & the world, so he is very aware there is a huge shortage, especially in Silicon Valley.

     

    When he was in research here in NJ, he had over 100 Ph.D's working for him & is in contact with most of them still. You could count on one hand the number of Americans.

     

    All three of the Americans were secretaries....not a one was a scientist.

     

    If the companies that have jobs to fill here don't find candidates, than those jobs will go overseas.

     

    Technology is constantly changing. The kind of software programming I did back in the late 1990's in a large insurance company is not even done anymore. A lot of jobs did leave the US for India, China, Russia, eastern Europe - where highly educated people were willing to work for a lot less than what these jobs paid in the US. However, salaries have gone up overseas. Those same programmers, electrical engineers, etc. now are paid much more in their home countries. The other thing is, many of those folks would rather come to the US & work, because they have so many more opportunities here.

     

    In Hyderabad, India I've been to the "high tech city" where all our huge corporations have offices. Oracle, IBM, Cisco, Microsoft, etc. they all opened up offices there decades ago. A funny thing happened. Turned out, productivity is higher right here in the US. In India, they have power outages, nightmare traffic....most American supervisors did not last long when they had to go over there to train & supervise all that "cheap" labor. All those buildings cost a fortune to build. They had to have their own generators, clean water supply....just imagine all to save $. It was cheaper, as they found out, to bring the workers here. People are happier here. The managers like living here. We are more productive here in the USA. Our immigration laws since 9/11 have also caused the supply of smart immigrants to dwindle - far fewer visas are issued.

     

    We just don't have enough college grads here to fill all these high tech jobs. We need to keep bringing in these highly educated, smart foreigners. Guess what. They live here, pay taxes here, and add to our economy.

     

    Some Americans don't want to see these people from all over the world come here. Dumb.

     

    Plus, if you are a highly educated American, with all the right talents - you go to the head of the line!

     

    Way back in the early 1980's when my husband was doing his Ph.D, guess how many American students there were in the electrical & computer engineering program? The Indians, Chinese, Koreans were all represented. Over 100 students, and just one lonely American.

     

    In order to get him to even do his Ph.D, they had to bribe him with 2 research assistantships! So he was paid double what the other grad students received.

     

    He really was the "blue eyed boy" in the group. Another feather in his cap was getting an assistant professor job after graduation. All the other graduates were able to get excellent jobs on their own.
    10 Jun, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    While there's a shortage here --- she's knowledgeable about her field and that she won't be able to get an equal paying job again (she's high up managing the product line development after 25 years).

     

    So it's not just a shortage here, but an outsourcing that's been happening for years now, so that those here with skills can't get the jobs. As she says they can hire 4 cheap people overseas for each of her team. So even if they could hire here - if they hire there and there are problems or 2 people aren't good... they're ahead financially. So the flip side of your story is what I'm hearing from technical people in the field (not just her).
    10 Jun, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3583) | Send Message
     
    The IT market in Memphis / surrounding areas is tight. Those who are working are entrenched, leaving few fresh positions for new entries / re-entries. My own position got outsourced to IBM (an Indian division) way back in 2008, and it never came back. The customers (end users) hate it, but the company saves quite a bit of money.
    11 Jun, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    L, sorry to hear about your friend - that's a tough situation.

     

    JohnBinTN, that must have been rough for you too.
    12 Jun, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Welcome! To newcomers, we've moved onto chapter #30, so please feel free to join us there!
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    In this chapter (29) are some intriguing stock ideas for this moment (along with general market assessing.)
    19 Jun, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - (PSEC) announced good news no restatement needed for SEC

     

    I bought back in at 10.39, hopefully a reasonable deal over time.

     

    BSF - should make you happy :).
    10 Jun, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    LOMAH:

     

    Great news! :)
    10 Jun, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    L, yes this news is great! I bought more too, but wish I had loaded up while the price was down under $9.80....still it will be nice to make back some of the money that was lost.

     

    So all those nasty lawsuits will fall off the wagon now. Sad thing is, a lot of investors probably sold after seeing the price fall & the lawsuits pile up.
    10 Jun, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    The announcement was that the SEC would not require any past restatements.

     

    There will be consolidation of "certain" wholly owned subsidiaries in future reports:

     

    "2. Upon the adoption of ASU 2013-08 by Prospect for the June 30, 2015 fiscal year, Prospect will begin consolidating on a prospective basis certain of its wholly-owned and substantially wholly-owned holding companies formed by Prospect in order to facilitate its investment strategy."

     

    http://mwne.ws/1phxUyM

     

    The next issue for PSEC is what will happen with the Nickolas Financial merger. The current agreement requires consummation of that acquisition by June 12, 2014, unless extended by mutual agreement.

     

    The delay in consummating that agreement was due to the SEC problem.

     

    NICK will announce on 6/12/14 what it intends to do.

     

    http://bit.ly/1phxKHN

     

    There is no change after hours in the NICK price., suggesting that the deal will collapse, but no definitive word on that issue has been released on the newswires.

     

    The PSEC price was up to $10.3 after hours. The price closed at $10.62 on 5/6/14, prior to the SEC announcement, and at $10.09 on 5/7/14.

     

    http://yhoo.it/UvMdMy

     

    Since I still own PSEC in my personal accounts (around 600 shares or so), I will just be interested to see whether the market returns the price to $10.62 or higher within the next week. A failure to do so may suggest that some institutional investors have concerns about how this consolidation will impact future distributable income.

     

    For me, I will simply continue my holding pattern and scrutinize carefully the first earnings report that incorporates those companies to determine what impact, if any, that consolidation may have on distributable income in that quarter, with similar attention given to the remainder of earning report during PSEC's fiscal 2015 year. I am not an enthusiastic owner of this security.
    10 Jun, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Oh, so the future statements will need to be changed. Meanwhile, you're look at NICK's price not changing was fortuitous...
    15 Jun, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Thanks for the heads up on the Nick deal. I had no idea to watch for that!!

     

    I remember my PSEC being around 10.75 where I bought it, up until the SEC announcement. According to your chart it was May 7th during the day that it dropped. It opened at 10.72. On May 6th it closed at 10.74. (Assuming I'm reading the chart correctly -- which isn't always the case :). ) So I would but 10.75 as the target for recovery.
    10 Jun, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    LMH: You are reading it correctly. I was using the adjusted price close (far right column) which takes the actual closing price of $10.74 and adjusts it down for the subsequent monthly dividend payment.

     

    So the unadjusted closing prices would be a $10.74 close on 5/6/14, opening that day at $10.81 and hitting a high at $10.83. On the next day, (5/7), the high was 10.75, the open was at 10.72, the low at 10.17, and the close was at 10.20

     

    The price continued to sink thereafter and closed at $9.64 on 6/4/14. The lowest intra-day since the SEC announcement was at $9.55 on 6/3/14.

     

    The NICK deal may be more interesting for a speculator at this point.

     

    I do not recall whether there has been any changes in the acquisition price since the December announcement:

     

    http://mwne.ws/1phFMQO
    10 Jun, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • td94306
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    A major reason I sold out of PSEC (beside the SEC issue) was because their interest income does not cover their dividend in the last 3 quarters. See the nice table in this article from BDC Buzz:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    PSEC has been relying on other income (fees from new originations) and UNII to cover their distribution. This does not seem sustainable in the long term. I bought FSIC and some other BDCs instead.
    11 Jun, 03:09 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Td: The same kind of analysis is made by Wells Fargo which has developed what it calls the Wells Fargo Adjusted Cash Flow Coverage metric. The general idea is to separate out the various components of income into recurring cash interest income, PIK income, originations and profits.

     

    Barron's Blog:
    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    The industry average for cash interest income, the most reliable source of dividend coverage, stands at only 81%. Wells Fargo labels that number WFACF. For the 12 months ending 12/31/13, the PSEC WFACF was at 79%, slightly below the industry average. When originations and PIK received are added to WFACF, the PSEC number for 2013 rises to 112% and the NOI coverage rises to 104%.

     

    A few BDCs had a WFACF number above 100%: GLAD, HRZN, TCAP, and TCPC.
    11 Jun, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • td94306
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    Thanks for the link to the WFACF info. I'll look at this in more detail later. You're an amazing source of info.
    12 Jun, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG, td, BC

     

    Here's the Nick deal news:
    "The termination deadline for completion of the Arrangement pursuant to the Arrangement Agreement is June 12, 2014. At its June 11, 2014 meeting, the Company's Board of Directors determined to terminate the Arrangement Agreement on the basis that certain conditions requisite to consummation of the Arrangement could not be satisfied by the termination deadline. The Board of Directors further determined to continue to retain Janney Montgomery Scott LLC as its independent financial advisor to assist the Board in evaluating strategic alternatives for the Company, including, but not limited to, the possible sale of the Company to Prospect or another third party, potential acquisition and expansion opportunities, and/or a possible debt or equity financing. "

     

    Any thoughts on it being cancelled?

     

    I set a sell at $10.45, (and it triggered this morning on the bounce), after reading you all's info here, and relooking at my original assessment. I may still get back in... but maybe a different BDC instead...

     

    My (TCAP) and (TCRD) are heavily underwater. Too much so, to sell. I'm just ignoring them.
    13 Jun, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    I might be wrong on the bonds right now, and have stopped trying to be long. Stronger dollar is pressuring US bonds.

     

    Might be wrong on the Euro, too. I have put a short EURO/ JPY trade on.

     

    Stocks, I have no idea when or from where the SPX might correct, other than we are due. I do favour the short momo trade still.
    10 Jun, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Seriously; I do think inflation expectations and how the Fed responds are key....watching the Euro / Yen......and perhaps top calling is still too popular.
    10 Jun, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Macro: On bonds, there are two general schools of thought expressed in commentary today from Joe Lavorgna, the chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank and Martin Feldstein on one side and Gundlach on the other.

     

    LaVorgna
    http://bit.ly/SLZkyE

     

    Feldstein:
    http://bit.ly/1l4hhPm

     

    Gundlach:
    http://bit.ly/SLZkic

     

    Gundlach believes that the 10 year will not go higher than 2.8% "anytime soon". Note that he is talking about market forces other than inflation restraining an upward movement in yield. Those forces include lower European government bond yields and a shortage of treasuries. Both of those conditions will last for awhile. He certainly understands how the withdrawal of over $2.6 trillion in available supply of ten year and later maturities impacts price.

     

    The countervailing force is inflation and inflation expectations, the normal determining factors in setting rates. Europe is still in a very low and falling inflation environment. That is not the case in EMs where inflation is at relatively high levels, as I noted with citations and links in a comment here.

     

    Since I am a data dependent investor, I will be playing close attention in the coming months to both the CPI and PCE price indexes and the various inflation indexes maintained by the Atlanta and Cleveland FED. I would agree with Feldstein's observation that the current FED will not respond to those price indexes accelerating over 2% and will be keeping ZIRP in place even if inflation accelerates in the coming months.

     

    For my purposes, I simply have to play the possible scenarios and weight their likelihood of occurring based on a continuous evaluation of the data.

     

    I would note that the average junk bond yield fell below 5% today.

     

    http://bit.ly/SLZkyK

     

    Bond risks, including interest rate and credit risks as applicable, are not commensurate with bond yields. I am not being compensated for either interest rate or credit risks in an appropriate manner.

     

    I am still playing the conceivable, though unlikely Japan Scenario, with some longer duration bonds and bond funds, Generally, I have cut back in my allocation to securities most at risk to rises in rates.

     

    And, in my accounts that have the most emphasis on capital preservation, I have a net cash raise in my IRAs of $20,000+ over the past few weeks selling bonds and preferred stocks (adding some higher yielding CEFs like JPI which has a shorter duration at 5.74 years or 8 adjusted for leverage and a liquidation date in 2024 as trades)

     

    When you mentioned shorting MET, which you have now covered, I told you that I had recently bought some shares. I am taking a longer term view and have no opinion on whether that stock or any other will rise or fall this week or month. I frequently buy a stock and the first move is down. MET is up about $4 over my buy price a few weeks ago.

     

    I do know whether TLT will rise or fall in the coming weeks. I do know that the risk is not worth the coupon for me.

     

    A few years ago, one of the perennial stock haters was recommending that everyone buy TLT and forget about stocks. I conducted an experiment at that time randomly selecting 5 blue chips, putting $10,000 into each one, and $50000 grand in TLT.

     

    8/23/2010 Post:
    More on Barron's and David Rosenberg
    http://bit.ly/1i3VcRl

     

    Literally, I just threw some paper wads with symbols on each piece and picked five that fell nearest my big toe.

     

    As of today's close, TLT's value was at $52,401.44. The five blue chips had a total value of $81,111.22. I did not try to track reinvested dividends which would have extended the difference in favor of the five stocks. SPY would have probably done better.
    10 Jun, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I covered my DB short today at a modest profit. Don't want any bank shorts.

     

    The market continuing to melt up is not overall helping my short situation, although when I look hard I would not make other choices on the short side than the unprofitable momemtum type stocks I am short nor do I wish to chase the market higher here from the long side.

     

    Most of the stocks I am short, appear to want to roll over but we do not get any corrective action to allow this to occur.

     

    It's a dilemma as I don't know how high they will melt it in this phase without a pause.

     

    I believe much of it at this point is powered by stock Buybacks, some with borrowed money, but if junk bond buyers wish to continue lending at 5%, to enable this, what can I do.

     

    Seems highly irrational if inflation outlook ticks up at all -- but in the chase for yield -- can all be justified.

     

    I regret putting the short trades on at this point, as it feels like I am fighting the Fed / ECB.
    10 Jun, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Hi everyone!

     

    Good time to buy (TWTR) IMHO.

     

    THE global communication platform. THE best management team in Silicon Valley. $40B within 3 years IMHO.

     

    Also, keep your eyes on (PBPB). It is (SBUX) 20 years ago IMHO.

     

    Cheers and take care!
    Krusty
    11 Jun, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    4 big things going on this morning. Mostly unreported.

     

    1. "Tea Party" candidate elected last night -- =potential budget fights.

     

    2. EU investigating AAPL, others tax rates .

     

    3. Banks looking into fake collateral on Chinese loans.

     

    4. World Bank lowers US, world growth outlook. (minor to me)
    11 Jun, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    i view the "political" scene as one possible threat to the market's upside .

     

    It has been my assertion that the market is in full "bull mode"
    when the DC crowd is NOT in the spotlight ,

     

    add the upset last night bringing that bunch back into the picture and it could spell volatility..

     

    However -- as in the past any sell off /volatility due to their shenanigans is to be viewed for what it has been and is --

     

    Noise...
    11 Jun, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Is it odd that on a down market day... the riskier momentum index Nasdaq is not down, while the traditional DOW is? With smallcap RUT down less than DOW?
    11 Jun, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L.

     

    perhaps not so odd - since we recently saw many days where (RUT) was being hammered while the major indexes were stable.. same with a lot of the Nasdaq tech names ----
    11 Jun, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    : ) I suppose.
    11 Jun, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Today -- I Could write from either side. Here's the bull side.
     
    Look what the market "fully discounted" today.
    Tea party candidate elected.
    Iraq blowing up, again.
    World bank bearish forecast.
    China loan fraud.
    Europe looking at multinational tax rates.
     
    In addition completion of tapering and initial rate hikes in early 2015.
     
    All of this is fully discounted.
     
    What is not discounted: forward PE of only 16 -- well below prior peaks.
    Per survey -- 40% of household wealth in cash.
    Tons of short side exposure.
    Accelerating economy with No inflation and no debt issues.
     
    The most "hated bull market in history", no doubt. ---
    11 Jun, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    By discounted do you mean counted in already... or not counted in already?

     

    That's a lot of bearish sounding stuff.
    11 Jun, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    "The most hated bull market in history, no doubt"...are you being facetious or serious?
    11 Jun, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    Are you being serious with that question?

     

    http://bv.ms/1oW5eYk-
    11 Jun, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Those of us who are ancient will remember a prior bull run that was more hated than the current one. Among a large segment of the investing population, all bull runs are hated since they are largely missed for a variety of reasons.

     

    The first phase of the prior long term secular bull market started in August 1982 when the S & P was near 102:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1xNLPPq

     

    The country was then in a recession. Inflation was still running hot. The average thirty year mortgage rate that year was over 16%. The ten year treasury was hovering over 11% and remained high for the entire first leg of that bull run which lasted until October 1987:

     

    http://bit.ly/WGQM6i

     

    Both stocks and bond had been in a long term secular bear market for 16 years or so. The S & P 500 was in the low 90s back in November 1965:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1xNLPPs

     

    For that entire run between 1982-1987, given those economic conditions, I would estimate that more than half of the investors viewed the bulls as crazed who would be burned soon enough when the long term secular bear market reasserted itself. The bull run which started with the S & P near 100 ended in the late 1990s blowoff phase, when investors lost all pricing discipline, with the S & P 500 near 1500.
    12 Jun, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Interesting. I hadn't realized there were pockets of bears 16 years long (before my investing time.) It's been mostly up since mid 80's except for a few quick large drops, and some bear stretches.
    15 Jun, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    (AMZN) & (NFLX) were up in pre-market now not so much

     

    futures falling now - were positive

     

    worries about Iraq

     

    worries about economy fizzling

     

    could be another dip today
    12 Jun, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    BlueSky: The turmoil in Iraq is contributing to a rally in energy stocks.

     

    (COP) and (CNQ) hit a new 52 week high today.

     

    The Syrian civil war has spread into Iraq. The Jihadist are certainly more willing to die for their cause than Iraqi soldiers who fled their posts when faced with a determined and ruthless foe. A similar situation developed in Vietnam after the U.S. military pulled out.

     

    A Bloomberg article published today has a map showing Iraq's oil fields and pipelines:

     

    http://bloom.bg/1iqEJGS

     

    Reuters has an excellent article published today about the leader of those Jihadist forces, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who are now winning in Sunni controlled areas of northern Iraq.

     

    http://reut.rs/1iqEJX9

     

    This guy is as ruthless and dangerous as they come.

     

    Our involvement in Iraq will end up costing over $2 trillion

     

    http://reut.rs/Xdid9R

     

    12 Jun, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Same spillover for the E & P oil companies here in US

     

    (PXD) , (CXO), (WLL) all at fresh highs ..

     

    Heck----- even (RIG) is up -- LOL
    12 Jun, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    I had to chuckle when all the guys on CNBC were rattling off a long shopping list of energy names. The offshore drillers were the last ones mentioned, with a sideways glance, like, oh, yeah, *those* companies and I think (RIG) was like the last one mentioned even in that cohort. No respect!
    12 Jun, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    SG, seeing those piles of discarded Iraqi soldier's uniforms is disgusting. So we have to go fight for them because they are chicken sh**ts? Only drones & fighter jets should go. No boots on the ground. JMHO.

     

    Still can't understand why we went there in the 1st place....what a waste of our soldier's lives & a trillion $ to boot.

     

    The huge traffic jam caused by people fleeing the terrorists is sad. 70 miles from Bagdad...they can't fight??

     

    I've got more fight in me than that. Hold your ground you gutless Iraqis, it's pathetic what we are seeing on tv here.
    12 Jun, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    I wouldn't even send a drone over there - those things aren't cheap ..

     

    and cant see wasting fuel for a fighter jet going there either..
    12 Jun, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Agree. Nothing will happen, except perhaps your leadership will get off the pot and approve a pipeline from one of your so - called closest allies.

     

    Can't understand why sending troops to Iraq makes more sense than standing up to a few idiot politicians over a simple pipeline.

     

    America sure knows how to piss off its friends, whether it be Germany (spying) or us here in Canada.

     

    End of rant.
    12 Jun, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    F & G

     

    Do you know what companies build those drones?
    13 Jun, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (RIG) finally got an updraft from energy, lol :).

     

    (LINE) too is doing well with this, at $30.40, over $30 for first time in a while.

     

    This may be an impossible to answer question ... but how to you look at Iraq war then realize that's why energy is going up? Is that typical that war in ME means higher prices so energy goes up? I wouldn't have connected the dots on that.
    15 Jun, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    It's not the same military set up as here. There may not be the coordination or leadership that makes you part of a military movement. ...instead of a random sitting duck. Or may be lack of food & supplies that's severe. It's a mess, but I'm not sure it's the boots on the ground I'd start ranting at first.
    15 Jun, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Naw not end of rant. Plenty of us in the US would like to rant at our politicians too...
    15 Jun, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    World Cup soccer!

     

    US will play Ghana, for their first game. Ghana eliminated US in the last go round 4 years ago.

     

    Some Brasileiros are protesting the games. Manaus is on the Amazon, in northern Brazil. Apparently close to $300 million dollars were spent on a new soccer stadium there, which won't see much use after the games are over. Four of the games will be played at the as yet completed stadium.

     

    I've been to Manaus. It's close to the equator so the climate is always horrible. Sounds like the Brazilian gov't is to blame for wasting $ that could have been spent better.

     

    http://bit.ly/1xO1VZi
    12 Jun, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    Name an Olympics (or any large project, e.g., Apollo) in history where cost wasn't decried and offered that all the spending should have been done for "the poor," instead.
    12 Jun, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Surprisingly, when the World Cup was held in the US it didn't cost that much. For the US, it's easier because we already have the stadiums, hotels, roads, airports, etc. Perhaps it was a boon for us, as tourists spent a lot of $ to come here & see the games.

     

    Maybe that will tourism bump will help Brazil too.

     

    Always thought Romney made $ with the winter Olympics held in Salt Lake City until I found this

     

    http://bit.ly/1irh3Cc

     

    My friend in Brazil that I've known since the 70's is adamant about getting rid of the crook that is Brazil's current leader, Dilma Rousseff. Depends on where you fall on the political/economic ladder doesn't it.

     

    FIFA seems to be full of crooks. They will make the most $ from the games, not Brazil. Television rights are all FIFA's.

     

    Fingers crossed for US team; but I always really want Brazil to win : )
    12 Jun, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    I've thrown in the towel, and covered my momentum stock shorts. Trade did not work. Thinking Iraq will benefit Canadian energy.
    12 Jun, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Macro: My Canadian energy positions are at new 52 week highs including the U.S. ETF (ENY). Both (SU) and (CNQ) hit new 52 week highs earlier today.

     

    The strength is spilling over into American E & P companies with (COP) hitting a new 52 week high. (FENY), a low cost energy ETF from Fidelity that can be purchased commission free at that broker, also hit a 52 week high, as did the CEF (PEO).
    12 Jun, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Macro: In addition to the securities cited above, I also own a Canadian ETF ISHARES S&P TSX CAPPED ENERGY INDEX ETF (XEG:CA) which I purchased with CADs on the Toronto exchange. That ETF, which also hit a 52 week high today, includes more Canadian E & P companies compared to ENY.

     

    Ishares Canada:

     

    http://bit.ly/1ir0I06

     

    ENY also includes some infrastructure companies like Pembina (PBA) which I have owned in the past.

     

    Currently my only Canadian energy infrastructure company is
    ENBRIDGE INCOME FUND HOLDINGS which I bought for $23 back in November 2013. That one is within a few cents of a 52 week high.

     

    http://bit.ly/1iPNKbZ

     

    Company website:
    http://bit.ly/1ir0I0c

     

    12 Jun, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    (LULU) is on sale today.
    12 Jun, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    YG:

     

    The second half of Lulu's name is apt.

     

    Here's my non-researched, off-hand assessment of LULU's problem:

     

    They were the latest "hot thing" for a while, but, lie all fads, they die off, and unless a high-flier (e.g., Under Armour) can rapidly expand its presence outside its original trendy niche, it becomes in trouble. In my completely uneducated, but instinctual, opinion, even LULU's name is an impediment. It's too cute, too feminine, too anti-establishment and completely devoid of attraction to the mainstream male athletic universe. Compare it to "Nike" or "Under Armour" in its connotations. This severely impairs their ability to make a broad incursion into athletic sportswear, etc.

     

    In any case, I wouldn't be betting on that horse.
    12 Jun, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    remember the see through yoga pants fiasco LULU had?

     

    that was last year; seems they never really recovered from that

     

    IMO, their yoga pants are ridiculously expensive.
    12 Jun, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Interesting how one person can think it is the most undervalued company in the market and others wouldn't touch it.
    13 Jun, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    The funny thing is people actually think (LULU) has a problem, companies would die to continually perform like that.

     

    The target audience is upper class women, men's is a niche for (LULU)

     

    (LULU) will earn $4-6 a share in 2018, all growth funded by the cash flows, and the $1 Billion they have in cash.

     

    They will of course have made another Billion by that time, I wish they would borrow some money and buy back shares like crazy.
    13 Jun, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - I never heard of (LULU) until I got to SA. Guess I'm out of touch with the latest styles :).
    13 Jun, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Y

     

    The fundamentals do sound strong. It's seems to be a question of whether the trendiness is intact. They get a lot of press coverage in the investing world (I've noticed). Not sure what that means about them.
    15 Jun, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    apt?
    12 Jun, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    Apt, as in "lemon."
    12 Jun, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yair

     

    (LULU) is up pre-hours on acquisition hopes. You're not the only one who's noticed it as undervalued:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    FG

     

    Looks like more M&A postings like you were expecting.
    18 Jun, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    the M & A activity is playing out as expected

     

    http://cnnmon.ie/1pfNCHc

     

    one beneficiary (LAZ) it hit a new high again this week, no need to chase but can be bought on pullbacks
    the fundamentals will be there and

     

    technically speaking ----the chart looks strong
    18 Jun, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    This news is bullish for Canadian energy in the extreme -- already my primary long side theme.

     

    Specific names -- POU-TO PEY-TO (PDS) (ECA) (CHK)

     

    ALT. ENERGY (TSLA) (FSLR)

     

    Nat Gas is also going nuts today. Double - barrelled catalyst for those first 3 names.
    12 Jun, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Other names I am looking at --

     

    (SCIF) (TKC) in the em world
    12 Jun, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    M, when you posted the other day about the bull market making it hard to short, I had a really bad feeling.

     

    Here's a prediction: markets will start going up when the US sends a bombing raid to Iraq.

     

    Wish it would go up for the right reasons - better economy, higher earnings.

     

    Iraq must be as close to h*ll as one can get

     

    http://reut.rs/1irkXeb
    12 Jun, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    BSF;

     

    There is too much liquidity, I made a huge mistake by being far too early.

     

    ECB is printing. China is adding liquidity. Japan is printing. And here they are winding down but no-where near actually tightening.

     

    Better to identify where the bull meltup may go next.

     

    Would think inflation assets and EM markets.

     

    Could conceivably see a monster move into Canadian energy. Where else?

     

    (PDS) is a slam dunk here.
    12 Jun, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    wondering if Solar will get a play with energy costs up,

     

    (TAN) & (FSLR) are both up today..

     

    maybe a spot for an intermediate trade here...
    12 Jun, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG;

     

    I can't see why not. I'd go with (FSLR).

     

    Can you believe (TWTR) still near the HOD? (and many social media/ momo stocks)

     

    Truly bizzaro on a clear "risk off" day.

     

    I really go fried shorting those. Top performers the last few days. And the least profitable the better they have done. (FB) down. (TWTR) (YELP) screams. ?????

     

    The short side is just too hard -- until the Fed actually RAISES rates -- multiple times.

     

    Back to the drawing board while I am still (somewhat less) profitable this year.

     

    I'm such a idiot at times!
    12 Jun, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Why would sending bombing to Iraq make the market go up?

     

    I did read that Iraq is basically a Saudi battle with Iran by proxy. I didn't get to finish the article though.
    15 Jun, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    (PDS) has been up so much already from when you spotted it. ... you think it still has a lot more to run?
    15 Jun, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Thanks for sharing your assessment. What you say here makes sense - too much liquidity, and waiting till tightening explicitly happens.

     

    So if there is a catalyst it's going to have to be geopolitical and big... and therefore unpredictable.
    15 Jun, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, M

     

    Good call, solar is rallying... (though they don't mention Iraq as a cause)
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Jun, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    it is usually a knee jerk reaction for Solar names to get attention when energy prices take off like they have .
    16 Jun, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Yes, L.

     

    A lot more.
    16 Jun, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Yes. I was tremendously jumping the gun.

     

    Even a geopolitical won't outweigh the liquidity.
    16 Jun, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M, LMH

     

    (PDS) chart looks great as it just broke to the upside again Looks like a buy on any pullback
    16 Jun, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    It does. They have some international operations but it obviously a play on Canadian energy. There are other companies like Trican well service but Precision is the blue chip Canadian name.

     

    Along with the other reasons, like higher oil prices, and overseas natural gas exports, I can't see keystone not being approved. It's only a matter of time in my mind, and this would pour money like a hose in the Alberta oil and gas sector.

     

    Today Hillary Clinton came out in favor of a "north American energy plan.

     

    Canada has multiple LNG export projects in the works.

     

    See my new instapost below as well on these themes.

     

    FSLR, PEY also broke out today.
    16 Jun, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M, FG

     

    Thanks on (PDS)!! With Iraq cooling down, that pull back may just be in the works...
    17 Jun, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    Worth noting today that even with market in mini-hysteria the 10-year yield is only down a half a point.
    12 Jun, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Putting on the crystal ball....perhaps this cycle will end like others before it -- with oil at 130-140, higher employment, copper and other late cycle rallying....perhaps no correction of consequence until rates rise in earnest.

     

    A better "bear case" worth consideration -- like to hear others thoughts -- would be the Fed "battling " the weak economy to a stagflation stalemate....in that scenario the better bet -- still would be energy / commodities / EM -- than shorting --- other than retail perhaps....we are not there but is a potential outcome.....strange how we are "awash in oil" and energy "independent" -- why then $107 crude? I can see immediate pressure for Keystone approval building -- if passed you would think 20-30% upside easy in the Canadian producers....they are still quite reasonable as a group -- no froth.

     

    Note after the close -- another size insider buy in (CHK) -- should look at that one again.

     

    The very slow recovery has fooled many, and me.

     

    Regardless--- taking the other side.....even if the economy is "rolling over" -- which I doubt -- we would see next a "fiscal stimulus " -- then off to the races.

     

    Shorting in a "zero rate" environment -- overall a mugs game. It worked once -- but not the second time. I expected a "second leg down in momo" -- nope.

     

    Ouch. Big time ouch. Even IWM looks ok, still.

     

    Long EM's are the better bet -- today I bought India small caps, and Turkish cellular.......along with adding to energy....

     

    Looks like natural gas will soon challenge the $5.00 handle...
    12 Jun, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Macro: Obama is not likely to do anything on Keystone before the election. There are some big money Democrats like Tom Steyer who are firmly against it:

     

    http://lat.ms/1xR22TU

     

    Democrats need their money in the upcoming elections.

     

    The Washington Post believes that it needs to be approved:

     

    http://wapo.st/1xR22TZ

     

    The New Yorker took the opposite side:

     

    http://nyr.kr/1xR24LL

     

    WTI Crude did break above the $105 resistance:

     

    http://onforb.es/1xR22Ua

     

    Hard to say now whether events in Iraq will become worse, stabilize, or improve in the coming days and weeks. I did note that Iran's revolutionary guards helped the Iraqi army retake most of Tikrit according to sources cited by the WSJ:

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1xR23as

     

    The Iraqi military looks ineffective against determined foes willing to die for a cause rather than a paycheck.

     

    If I see more of a spike in the ETF ENY, I may harvest my profit. I tend to sell something into this kind of rally.

     

    I expect FXA and FXC to gain strength against the USD. Your Canadian dollar is trading above its 50 day SMA line and is near its 200 day line:

     

    http://yhoo.it/MG7fdW;range=1y

     

    The 200 day SMA is around 93.

     

    Stocks and bonds priced in USDs that are Canadian and Australian securities would consequently be experiencing a tailwind provided the CAD and AUD continue to rise in value against the USD.

     

    The AUD/USD is above both its 50 and 200 day SMA.

     

    http://yhoo.it/16UibKn;range=1y

     

    I own one closed end bond fund, FAX, that has a high weighting in Australian bonds, along with bonds from issuers in other Asia-Pacific countries.

     

    CEFConnect Page:
    http://bit.ly/1lX27yM

     

    I am a light on Australian common stocks, with my last buy being the ADR NABZY-National Australia Bank.

     

    I have no opinion on your SCIF buy other than to note that it has already made a big move based on the election results:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1xR23aC;range=1y
    12 Jun, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    SG, thanks for the links.

     

    First a question -- do you believe the Iraq events improve the chances for ultimate approval?

     

    Couple of observations -- Crude was quite strong before the Iraq events.

     

    I recognize the sector is overbought, but have to go with the breakout in both crude and natural gas -- potentially.

     

    On the Indian small caps they have made a big move -- but have been in the wilderness for so many years -- decades -- the potential for a long bull is there.
    Fwd PE on SCIF --- still only @ 15 or so.
    12 Jun, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Obama will not approve Keystone under any circumstances.

     

    Obama is a radical ideologue, not even thinly disguised anymore, who despises, among many of America's values, capitalism and conventional energy development (especially oil or coal) in almost any form, not to mention having no regard for Constitutional law or political accommodation. Inexpensive energy is one of the primary threats to the big-government left because its affordability mobilizes and empowers people, lessening their dependence on government for their well being, and therefore the control of government over their behavior.

     

    He's only stalling for the 2014 elections, then he'll kill it as dead as a door nail.
    12 Jun, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Macro: Some technicians view $115 as the next resistance point for WTI crude.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1lsEEXt

     

    While the potential upside after bursting through that number is unknown and unknowable from my point of view, a much higher price is certainly possible after breaking through that resistance point, particularly with supply disruptions from Iraq. I just do not see oil staying at elevated levels, so my inclination is to sell into a spike with the most difficult decision being when.

     

    I sold that burst in 2008. I will sell something into a similar burst now.

     

    I am more likely to sell an energy ETF into a price spike than one of my individual energy stock holdings. The leading candidate would be ENY last bought at $14.04.

     

    A number of Democrat senators oppose Obama's decision to delay the Keystone pipeline decision. Eleven of them signed a letter sent to him:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1lsEG1B

     

    I suspect that there are a few more who would vote to approve Keystone specific legislation or override a Presidential veto. There is also support for Keystone's approval among organized labor.

     

    So, continued delay beyond the November elections could easily see a revolt among a significant number of Democrats who would be willing to join all GOP senators and congressional representatives to force Obama's hand.

     

    Legislation has been introduced with bipartisan support to approve the pipeline :

     

    http://bit.ly/1mFlr4o

     

    The odds for approval improve early next year with or without Obama on board. The election results may improve those odds.

     

    The Iraq conflict is not a short term game changer. I would not expect any change before the election.

     

    As to India, I would agree with BlueSky's comments that any improvements in India are likely to be slow and incremental. The sponsor has the TTM P/E at 13.72 for SCIF:

     

    http://bit.ly/1lsEEXw

     

    The YTD move through 5/31/14 is +46.44%.

     

    You also have the currency risk issue, and the Rupiah can be volatile.
    13 Jun, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Macro,

     

    my .02 on the oil comment,
    "how we are "awash in oil" and energy "independent" -- why then $107 crude?"

     

    my simplified take on the oil picture and answer to those that have been calling for lower oil prices since 2012 --

     

    they simply don't have the "demand" part of the equation correct.. Of course now there is the "fear' premium being built in because of Iraq.

     

    but as you commented - oil prices were stable and quite strong before this event .. I believe it is because of global demand..
    13 Jun, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    To all ,

     

    can you just envision the economy if we could just get the DC crowd and our fearful leader out of the way

     

    ..even for just a while ... scary just to think what can be accomplished .......
    13 Jun, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Sure makes the case FG for C$ energy....

     

    interesting bond reaction to soft PPI.....selling.
    13 Jun, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG;

     

    Very true.

     

    BTW -- back to Oil demand -- if you are correct -- This makes me (even more) an absolute raving mad bull on Natural gas -- per my instablog --- could see 6-7 Nat gas in the next couple of years.
    13 Jun, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    SG -- interesting how WTI, which has little to do with Iraqi supply in my mind, has moved --- might be a technical "excuse" for a move that was going to happen anyway -- which makes the story much more powerful if true for energy
    13 Jun, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    MACRO: It is a world energy market. The EIA does not share the market's enthusiasm for higher prices, as shown in its projections made on 6/10/14:

     

    "EIA projects Brent crude oil prices to average $108/bbl in 2014 and $102/bbl in 2015 and the WTI discount to Brent to average $9/bbl and $11/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

     

    EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $3.73/MMBtu in 2013, will average $4.74/MMBtu in 2014 and $4.49/MMBtu in 2015."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/IhGSUR
    13 Jun, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    I am a bit suspicious of the supply side as well, or the cost of such supply.

     

    Note the EIA recently cut some estimates of some fields by what, 90%+?
    13 Jun, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Sorry for the ouch :(. That's never fun. But...there'll be a next time...

     

    What did you use to buy India small caps? (Edit: nevermind, you listed it later, (SCIF) )
    15 Jun, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    How very, very true. But next big election is two years ago. This one isn't likely to change the embattled environment. Maybe bring some nice buying dips though.
    15 Jun, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Agree with this article - I have hated India as an investment forever -- because of its dysfunctional government and ridiculous infrastructure. This election might change all of that and introduce a generational bull market.

     

    On Turkey -- long another favourite of mine -- the ECB actions will flow to the peripheral countries like Turkey, not without issues but with amazing growth and strategic advantage. I also expect Turkey one day to be admitted to the EU. For this I chose Turkcell -- though one could choose the ETF (TUR).
    12 Jun, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    M, be very careful with India.

     

    I have very close relatives there & have travelled to India many times. My husband goes every year.

     

    Infrastructure in India will take a very long time to build - they don't have a reliable electric grid. Water is rationed. Every other day, they get some water for about half an hour....this is in one of the largest cities in India. Most people have a water tank on top of their house that they pay to fill. Running water, hot water on demand are not standard. Before taking a bucket bath, you heat up a bucket of water.

     

    I learned to take a very nice bath with just 2 buckets of water, one hot, one cold. Then you mix them as you go, using a mini pitcher to pour water on yourself. It's actually sort of fun.

     

    Traffic is a nightmare, only getting worse in major cities. Pollution is terrible. I would use my long cotton dupatta (sort of a long scarf) to breathe thru in traffic.

     

    India is a fascinating place, full of history, ancient culture, fabulous food. Things are getting better there all the time, but it is still not as advanced as say China. Please don't misunderstand me - I love India. Somehow, they make things work there & it is inspiring to see.

     

    The new leader will cause things to change. But it will take time.
    13 Jun, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    the best hotels of course are first class, wonderful to stay in.... rich people live in style in India too with servants etc.

     

    M, the article you linked to had some good ideas.
    13 Jun, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    BSF,

     

    Never been to India, but been to several countries exactly like that. Always an adventure!

     

    Imagine the possibilities for an infrastructure buildout --- if they are serious. The potential has always been there.
    13 Jun, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Newbie trader
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Last time I heard, I believe half a year ago, the Indians were building up an army near her boarder with China. It was about water right or something and China responded by sending tank divisions there.
    13 Jun, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Newbie, India & China have never been friends. They also fight over land in the Himalayas - the state called Jammu & Kashmir. On one side, Pakistan & India keep fighting in the mountains over their border. On the other side, China is a threat. In 1962, China went to war with India there.

     

    I would like to see the Himalayas someday, but certain areas are not safe, particularly where India & Pakistan are fighting over their border. After looking at this map,

     

    http://bit.ly/1lx0vgv

     

    there's Abbottabad, just north of Islamabad in Pakistan. That's where Osama bin Laden was hiding out.
    15 Jun, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Turkey could be a very bumpy ride, with the politicians they've got.

     

    Their leadership is looking to bring them more into being Middle East players. It could be a long, long time before they're in the (EU).

     

    Wonder if that makes a cell company a better bet than the general ETF.
    15 Jun, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    How interesting...that kind of bath is fun :).
    15 Jun, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Saves water too....just 2 buckets of water as opposed to how many buckets of water are wasted in a shower.

     

    We are soooo spoiled!
    16 Jun, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    BSF,

     

    Done those baths on several occasions.
    16 Jun, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    More on Turkcell -- chance for ownership resolution and a special dividend. Stock was strong today.
    12 Jun, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    The DJ UBS Commodity Futures Index has been trending up.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1xReX8o

     

    There is an ETN that tracks that index, DJP:

     

    Sponsor's webpage:

     

    http://bit.ly/1xReVgU

     

    That index has about a 30%+ weighting in energy.

     

    Another commodity index has a larger weighting in energy and can be bought using the symbol GSG:

     

    Sponsor's webpage:

     

    http://bit.ly/1xReVgY

     

    2014 weightings at table 2:

     

    http://bit.ly/1xReVh0

     

    I own a senior unsecured exchange traded note issued my Citigroup Funding and guaranteed by Citigroup whose annual coupon will be the greater of 3% or the percentage gain in the DJ UBS Commodity Index over its Starting Value of 126.52 with the closing value of that index on 7/3/14 being the ending value. That index closed today at 134.28. (if that index closed at 134.28 on 7/3, the coupon would be about 6.133% assuming no Maximum Level Violation which appears unlikely since the index would have to close over 165.61 at any time before the End Date) This note is in its final annual coupon period and will mature on 7/11/14 at its $10 day par value.

     

    Two similar notes, which I owned and have been redeemed by Citigroup, were tied to the Russell 2000 and paid a 28.4% and a 13.03% annual coupon respectively earlier this year.

     

    See: "MBC Ends Its Final Annual Period with about a 13.03% Coupon Payment on a $10 Par Value"

     

    http://bit.ly/1xReVxg

     

    Another one tied to this commodity index was redeemed earlier this year, paying its minimum 3% coupon after paying me 25.56% and 18% in two prior years.

     

    MOL, which is tied to the gold price, may pay more than its minimum coupon of 2%.

     

    Starting Value Gold London P.M 11/20/13: $1,257

     

    London P.M. Fix:
    http://bit.ly/1xReX8D

     

    Maximum Level Violation: 1495.83 ($1,257 x.1.19=1,495.83)

     

    MLV causes reversion to minimum coupon.

     

    End Date: 11/19/14

     

    Coupon: Minimum 2% up to 19%.

     

    Prospectus:
    http://1.usa.gov/1xReVxk

     

    P.M. London Fix 6/12/14: $1,265.75

     

    Gold would have to close above 1282.14 on 11/19/14, with no MVL, to trigger an increase in the 2% minimum coupon.

     

    A P.M. London fix in the gold price that day at $1400-with no MVL-would result in an 11.38% coupon (1400 hypothetical End Date Value minus $1257 Starting Value with NO MVL=$143 divided by Starting Value=11.38%)

     

    I own 200 MOL bought below par value.
    12 Jun, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Very powerful day in commodity stocks. Commodity rally strengthened beyond pure energy to materials names.

     

    Monster day in diverse names such at (CLF) (WLT) (PDS) (ECA) (CNQ) , many others. Gold and silver too.

     

    The Toronto stock exchange, heavily weighted to commodities, outperformed the SPX in a way I haven't seen in a long time. Powerful buying.

     

    I'm thinking -- this time it might be for real -- and this may be a real move into inflation hedge assets.

     

    Perhaps this is the next "act" in this play -- before higher rates send us all out of the theatre one day.

     

    Also fascinating -- how many houses closed their commodity desks in the last year -- contrary signal for this class.

     

    Could be major opportunity here.
    13 Jun, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    M, the commodity prices are partly reacting to the threat of Iraq's problems spreading.

     

    If the Syria/Iraq/Ukraine etc. instability settles down, commodities may fall back.

     

    Meanwhile, you could make some $ in the short term.

     

    There's going to be a bumper crop of corn/soybeans from what I hear. Lots of rain in the midwest & eastern US.
    14 Jun, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2413) | Send Message
     
    Much too early to predict a bumper crop. Corn won't even go through its critical yield determining stage until mid July; soybeans a few weeks later.
    14 Jun, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    On another note -- if I needed another reminder of the dangers of shorting a liquidity driven bull, today's takeover of open table by Priceline at a 46% premium is a prime example.

     

    Sure plenty of shorts fried on open table, and Yelp as well ( up 14%). (YELP) -- going crazy again -- in spite of being a terrible business, never made money, under investigation for extorting their own clients! -- and having a management team with zero! Shares in their own company. Compelling story, lol, but screaming higher.

     

    In 1999 I knew a guy who shorted the Nasdaq at 3000, covered at 4000. He was right -- but only when the easy money was shut off completely.

     

    Such as it will be, again. The Nasdaq for all we know, could have 2000 more points in it. All about the liquidity.

     

    Think the junk bond market wil signal when it's time, one day.
    13 Jun, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    M, (PCLN) got hammered after announcing the purchase of Open Table. Apparently investors thought (PCLN) paid to much? I've got some (PCLN); may add a little if the price continues to drop.

     

    Next week the crisis continues with Iraq. Iran is sending troops to help out. Shiites are mostly in southern Iraq & Iran, with the ones fighting in Syria now going to Iraq to fight. The Iraqi rebels are Sunni (as was Saddam Hussain). Iraq's leader caused this fiasco, as he's Shiite & not very good at strategy. Now the rebels have robbed a bank (reportedly 450 million so they are the richest muslim terrorists to date) and they've been picking up tanks, guns, ammo etc as the Iraqi military throws down their weapons & runs. Unbelievable.

     

    So the question is, do we help Shiite Iran & Iraq thwart the Sunni terrorists.....or do nothing & hope Allah takes care of it?

     

    Meanwhile, Iran is still giving problems with their nuclear fuel enrichment program. They say they need the enriched fuel for power plants, not nuclear bombs. Riiight.

     

    Saudi Arabia & most of the other Arab countries are Sunni....Pakistan, Afghanistan etc. Shiites are in the minority. The Iraqi terrorist Sunni muslims are dead set on destroying all the Shiite holy sites in Iraq.

     

    I say let them duke it out. Hopefully they will do a good job destroying each other.

     

    We have enough oil in Canada, US, Mexico & S. America. IMO, we don't need their oil....maybe China does?

     

    The sooner we convert to other than oil energy the better.
    14 Jun, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    No, we don't get involved in Iraq again, BSF.

     

    We get on the phone to the spineless congressmen out there and tell them to approve Keystone, before us Canucks get fed up and sell it to China.

     

    Who are Americans to judge Canadian oil sands, anyway?

     

    Respectfully, regardless of my own views, it is none of Americans business.
    14 Jun, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,Blue ,

     

    agreed - i rarely let politics seep into my investment world..

     

    Having said that - I see no need to waste another dime in Iraq..

     

    A fifth grader could have told us that this was going to happen when the US first entered into that situation..

     

    It was inevitable..

     

    Happy Fathers day to all of the dad's out there ..

     

    15 Jun, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Taking a little break from getting ready for our party - Happy Father's Day to all. Good food, good spirits (always some beer!) enjoy your day guys. Just remember how hard the women are working today, & don't let them down next Mother's Day ; )

     

    It's a gorgeous day here, lovely weather in NJ.

     

    Praying for all the people over there in Iraq that need to find peace amongst themselves asap.

     

    15 Jun, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Is (PCLN) a good investment now that it's taken a hit? I don't have any. It's not a DGI, no dividend.

     

    I was impressed with the experience I just had with it from a few different angles. Opentable seems like a great match for it, and Priceline's management may be able to do good things with it. They are certainly good at negotiating with businesses. Almost all the hotels in the area I was going, were represented on their site.
    15 Jun, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    ...Happy Father's Day to everyone!!

     

    Hope you've had a great day!
    15 Jun, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    L, I like (PCLN) buy it only if you get a great price. There's lots of competition, but (PCLN) seems to be the biggest player in this area. Buying (OPEN) was a good move. However, as crazy as it is - the price they pay for (OPEN) may go higher if (PCLN)'s competitors start making bids for it.
    16 Jun, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BTW,

     

    I hear through the grapevine that IT is continuing his portfolio challenge. It's a fun way to try things out and see what others are trying - maybe pick up some ideas.

     

    So anyone who wants to do something along those line, write to IT (Interesting Times) or click on the link above (in my blog) to his portfolio.

     

    If you do join in, please post so here, and share with us if you come across good ideas... or have wonderful virtual success :).
    16 Jun, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Medtronic is up over 4% in early trading today after announcing that it will acquire Covidien in a cash and stock deal. Covidien is a medical device company headquartered in Ireland. I mentioned MDT here a few days ago.

     

    This is another "tax inversion" merger.

     

    MDT will have its main executive offices in Ireland and its "operational headquarters" will be in Minneapolis. Ireland has a 12.5% tax rate, much lower than the 35% U.S. maximum tax rate for corporations. MDT had an effective tax rate of 18.5% last year.

     

    The EU has started an investigation of whether Ireland's tax code constitutes "illegal state aid".

     

    Reuters
    http://reut.rs/SNr45H

     

    WSJ Article:
    http://on.wsj.com/SNr45I

     

    Apple has become the poster child for reducing taxes through the use of companies domiciled in Ireland and a wide variety of ingenious uses of varying tax code provisions. A lengthy Senate report was released in 2013 highlighting those legerdemains to make profits disappear for tax purposes.

     

    Only a nerd would read this kind of document which can be downloaded at

     

    "Exhibit 1A"-Left Side of Page
    http://1.usa.gov/1lhHZdR

     

    Some really bright people are used to develop these schemes and possibly a better use of their intelligence and energy would be in more productive areas other than tax avoidance.

     

    http://bit.ly/SNr45N
    16 Jun, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    South ,

     

    i'll take the other side..

     

    Full disclosure i have no positions in either company

     

    However tax AVOIDANCE illegal,, each company has an obligation to its employees, shareholders and their customers..

     

    Perhaps the US Gov't needs to take a look at why we need to have the highest corp tax rate in the world... and the negative overall negative effect it has.

     

    Wouldn't it be better to have the trillions in offshore money that is piled up there, brought back here for investment , dividends and the like ? Might that be a boost to the economy to give corporations a break from these crazy tax burdens so that they can grow the economic pie, thus benefiting everyone?

     

    Bottom line, i dont see the tax avoidance as the issue I see the existing tax code here and the absurd rate as the problem..

     

    My .02
    16 Jun, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    I should note --- my comment should read tax avoidance ISN'T illegal
    16 Jun, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    F & G: I was not advocating a side. I find any debate here about corporate tax issues to be unproductive unless it specifically deals with an upcoming change in a law that will have a material impact on profits.

     

    I understand that you own Apple, where these issues are now front and center, but nothing to date suggests that the EU will take any action anytime soon that will impact Apple's tax liability. It is a situation worth monitoring since many U.S. corporations use Ireland and other "tax havens" to reduce their tax obligations worldwide, not just in the U.S.

     

    Apple, for example, avoids any tax obligation on profits in a number of countries outside the U.S. where it is generating real and large profits (e.g. no U.K. tax in 2012 and at a 1.9% tax on profits earned outside the U.S. for the 2012 fiscal year).

     

    As to MDT, the effective U.S. tax rate last year was 18.5% and SA commenters no doubt pay more. Corporate taxes have fallen in the U.S. to about 10% of federal revenue from 32.1% in 1952.

     

    http://bit.ly/SNK2ZP

     

    The data varies by year but the percentage of profits actually paid by U.S. corporations is much closer to 10% rather than 35%.

     

    Forbes Article Discussing GAO report:
    "US Corporations Only Paid 13% Of Their Profits In Federal Tax: Apple Is The Explanation For This"
    http://onforb.es/SNK1Fe

     

    The Senate Report on Apple is interesting reading simply because it highlights that the sophistication, time and money spent developing these legal "tax avoidance" measures.

     

    see also:
    "What Fortune 500 Firms Pay (or Don’t Pay) in the USA And What they Pay Abroad — 2008 to 2012"

     

    http://bit.ly/SNK1Fg loses
    16 Jun, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    The taxing structure costs us all too much. With an entire professional dependent on it, and politicians that could fight over pizza toppings, it's not going to change anytime soon. But it's like having an ant colony where 20% of the ants just stand in the way of the rest of the ants, and make them walk around them in bizarre patterns before they can re-enter the colony. So I agree, using bright people for producing would be a better use of our resources.
    16 Jun, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I was really impressed with the intellectual firepower that went into structuring Apple's tax avoidance measures. A huge amount of energy and intelligence is directed into those kind of endeavors. I am not proposing an answer for it since that would be a useless exercise for any of us, similar to talking about any matter that is just outside of our ability to control or influence. All we can do is react when those events impact our investment decisions.

     

    For these kind of tax issues, they become important only when it becomes apparent that the tax codes will be changed in some comprehensive way, taking away these shell games and increasing corporate taxes significantly.

     

    It is interesting that MDT is now trading near $60 after hitting $63.9 earlier today. Some institutional investors are having second thoughts for reasons unknown.

     

    MDT's dividend was raised by 9% this morning. None of this will have any impact on the shares that I currently own.

     

    16 Jun, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My latest:

     

    Stocks of interest should be (ECA) (FSLR) (PDS) (OIH) (XLE) (TSLA) (CLF) (TCK) (PAAS) (POU.TO) (PEY.TO)

     

    Long several of these.
    16 Jun, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    As an investor, the issues relating to "tax inversion" are only important to me as owner of Medtronic stock. It may become important for other positions.

     

    MDT has expressly conditioned the consummation of the merger on no change in section 7874 of the Internal Revenue Code that permits this kind of tax inversion.

     

    http://nyti.ms/SOouwr

     

    While there are bills in the congressional hopper sponsored by Democrats to change that code provision, passage is highly questionable due to GOP opposition. Possibly, a deal could be cobbled together on changing that provision coupled with a tax holiday on the repatriation of foreign earnings. However, given the distances between the two political tribes, any compromise on major tax issues appears unlikely.

     

    Even without the tax savings, the deal to acquire Covidien makes sense to me and will create a more diversified medical supply company, a point made in a Barron's article published late today:

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    MDT can also use its foreign cash earning nothing to fund at least part of the cash consideration for the deal without a change in current tax laws.

     

    On the repatriation tax issue, Bloomberg estimates that there is $1.95 trillion in retained earnings held abroad by U.S. corporations. Just 22 corporations account for more than 1/2 of that total led by GE, which I own, at $110 billion.

     

    http://bloom.bg/SOouMH

     

    The Democrats are not too happy with what happened after the last repatriation tax holiday which occurred during the Clinton years. They held hearings and published a report.

     

    http://bit.ly/SOouMI

     

    In their minds, corporations did not use those repatriated funds to create jobs, which is what they promised to do, but instead used the funds to dramatically increase compensation paid to top managers and to increase dividends. That makes them resistant to doing it again.

     

    The issues involving Ireland's tax code relate primarily to tax avoidance in the U.K. and continental Europe. It has not gone unnoticed by European governments that many multinational corporations, particularly those from the U.S. who have developed some really serious expertise in this area, have managed to construct a number of entities in tax havens that are used to reduce or to eliminate taxes, not in the U.S. but in other European countries. Two of the favorite spots are Ireland and Luxembourg. The European investigation is something to keep an eye on.

     

    I would note that international tax issues are very complex. If I was going to take a side, I would be writing what amounts to a dissertation that would be extremely boring and very, very, very, very long. And there would be no reason for me to write such an essay. What difference would it make even if published a book on the subject.

     

    All that anyone can do as an investor is react to the reality as it is whether than the way we believe it should be.
    16 Jun, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    South

     

    thanks for the info ,

     

    I too would be hesitant to believe that both sides will get together on this issue --

     

    I guess we can all wish that they do , FWIW,

     

    http://cnb.cx/1pa0AIe
    16 Jun, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    F & G: Paul is right about a grand bargain involving taxes as being a bridge too far, at least until 2016 and probably longer.

     

    If there are enough practical politicians from both sides that want to put together a sensible and narrow compromise, then something may be done. The compromise could be something like a 5% repatriation tax mentioned by Paul and a change in the IRS code provision on tax inversions. I seriously doubt that the former would pass without the later, and both together would lose votes on both sides of the aisle. There are a lot of Democrats who have a bitter taste in their mouth from the 2004 repatriation episode.

     

    Repatriation of those foreign funds is not a panacea as shown by what happened in 2004. Many of those companies repatriating foreign earnings cut jobs, but they did increase dividends, share buybacks and executive compensation.

     

    So, as a shareholder of several corporations who would benefit, I would view no repatriation tax or a low double digit tax on repatriated earnings favorably. I would likely see my GE dividend increased at a faster rate and the company could afford more buybacks.

     

    As a citizen, I am under no illusion that those limited number of large publicly traded corporations who have significant sums overseas will create jobs with repatriated funds. They will mostly remain in their normal cost cutting mode (e.g. PFE, HPQ).

     

    Some will hire based primarily on economic conditions and their specific needs.

     

    Even a no repatriation tax would probably not cut down on tax avoidance plans using small countries like Ireland or Luxembourg who will maintain more favorable tax laws than anywhere else, and those laws will be used as long as they exist to lower tax liabilities.

     

    And a zero repatriation tax has no benefit for the vast majority of businesses, particularly the small non-publicly traded businesses who bear the brunt of the current U.S. corporate tax code, since they have no international operations. Those small businesses also lack the myriad ways to reduce their domestic tax liabilities employed by many of the larger publicly traded corporations and their armies of tax professionals and lobbyists.

     

    See Recent Articles on Amazon's Use of a Luxembourg Corporation to Substantially Reduce U.K. Tax Liabilities:

     

    http://bit.ly/T2jpkn

     

    http://bit.ly/T2jqEU
    16 Jun, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    SG, all these corporations buying foreign corporations to lower their taxes is crazy.

     

    Again, our folks in DC are letting us down by not creating a positive environment for our own American born corporations. The jobs lost, opportunities lost...very sad & frustrating.

     

    The news about (SCTY) is at least encouraging. Gov. Cuomo created a high tech manufacturing zone near Buffalo, NY. I'm sure tax incentives was a big reason corporations located there. Solar City is buying Silevo, a company that is located there. See links below.
    17 Jun, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    (SCTY) up over $8 today on news it's buying a solar panel factory

     

    http://cnb.cx/1pFrVUB

     

    Gov. Cuomo did a good thing making Buffalo a high tech manufacturing center

     

    http://bit.ly/1pFrXf8
    17 Jun, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    This is welcome news in the wake of the tariffs on Chinese panels (which had been a bit of a negative for them recently). It also goes to show that indeed their business model can change. I feel kind of stupid because I didn't see this coming at all and am not long the name. :/

     

    I wish I was an insider and could know all the big surprises before hand.
    17 Jun, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    BC, I bought (SCTY) because Elon Musk is involved with it. Also have (TSLA), but didn't buy it when it was cheap. Recently got into the green with (TSLA) and getting close with (SCTY). Hopefully, a battery storage system will be developed soon so that you can store the energy produced from solar for the cloudy days. How much cleaner the environment will be without burning nasty fossil fuels like coal & oil. Plus much the environment will be saved because nobody is fracking.

     

    Maybe a good way to play solar is to buy some shares of (FSLR) (SPWR) (SCTY) etc so you have all the bases covered.

     

    Some day, solar will be our primary source of energy.
    17 Jun, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    Elon Musk is a good entrepreneur. I think his priorities, at least in terms of business, are (1) Space X, (2) Tesla, (3) SolarCity. Space X is his baby. Tesla is something he is committed to seeing brought to fruition (defined as having produced an affordable EV/becoming more of a mainstream rather than niche car company). I think he wants to focus more on Space X when Tesla reaches that milestone.

     

    I'm still researching and pondering solar. Any thoughts on (SUNE)?
    18 Jun, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    No, haven't done any research on (SUNE)
    18 Jun, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    I was long, but have reduced risk quite a bit today.

     

    That CPI report could turn out to be a developing issue, IMO.

     

    I didn't like the action in corporate bonds today as a result, and that is not a good catalyst.

     

    I cashed in on the nice run in FSLR, TSLA, reduced oil exposure somewhat, and shorted PCLN, AMZN, VRX.

     

    I'd be watching the bond ETF LQD..........
    17 Jun, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    As the equity market marches forward

     

    many still are not interested or invested

     

    http://bit.ly/1jwTnMT
    17 Jun, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    Regardless the Fed is clearly, no doubt behind the curve. Way behind.

     

    Tommorrow they have 2 difficult choices -- acknowledge the inflation and accelerate the taper and future tightening ( better, more sustainable, credible choice) --- then this year is our 1994 -- and sets up for 1995.

     

    Or they deny the inflation -- say something like its "transitory" -- which is ridiculous if you look at the CPI 1- and / or say they will tolerate higher inflation. Either way the bond market gets hit, and maybe stocks.

     

    The Fed has to be careful to maintain their credibility.....
    17 Jun, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Interesting fact :

     

    http://bit.ly/1pfSnR9
    18 Jun, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    Apparently, there just aren't enough "environmentalists" over there to slow them down.
    18 Jun, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    Tack:

     

    I'm not sure what you're trying to imply by that, but China has been cutting a lot of corners on infrastructure using lower quality concrete (and who knows what else). I wouldn't brag about such a poor environmental and safety record.

     

    Of course, I wouldn't brag about our over-regulated way of doing things here, but there has to be a happy medium.

     

    http://wrd.cm/1sojm2u
    18 Jun, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - The Fed has spoken

     

    Any thoughts on their various points?
    18 Jun, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    The Fed said it would press ahead with the current plan and has shrugged off inflation concerns. I am in agreement with this. I suspect others here won't be and that's what makes a market.

     

    Still waiting to hear the press conference though, usually can learn a few things from that.
    18 Jun, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    No surprises..

     

    for the moment ,market seems to be taking all in stride..

     

    Yellen yet to speak however,, stay tuned...
    18 Jun, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    http://cnnmon.ie/QxDqZ3 94 today.

     

    FG either pretty high complacency anyway.

     

    Call me a hater but I am baffled by the assertion there is zero inflation.

     

    Anyway.....Party On!
    18 Jun, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    The Fed releases every quarter its economic projections and estimates made by FED members about the timing of rate increases:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1pgNneZ

     

    It is difficult for me to accept the persistently low PCE inflation projections. The FED is projecting a fall in the unemployment rate to 5.4% to 5.7% in 2015, with PCE inflation in the 1.5% to 2% range.

     

    Over the past three months, CPI has risen at a 3.3% annual rate.

     

    In the dot matrix at page 3, I counted 11 FED members who believe that the FF rate will be 1% or higher by 2015 year-end, and there is one hawk who is apparently dreaming of a 1% FF rate this year. A clear majority expect a 2% or higher FF rate by year-end 2016.
    18 Jun, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    Me too. As of today following those projections and press conference; The Fed has lost credibility with me.

     

    To claim wages are (about to) rise and inflation expectations won't move; stretches all credibility.

     

    They are way behind the curve, IMO

     

    It is irrelevant what I think though, markets love it. They are in full on party mode on every metric. Conversely -- risk is now higher than when there is more anxiety.
    18 Jun, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Macro: The current FED is using the PCE price index rather than CPI. PCE prices have been trending lower than CPI as noted by St. Louis Fed President Bullard:

     

    http://bit.ly/1jzE1av

     

    As I previously noted, the Atlanta Fed takes the CPI data and divides prices into flexible and sticky. In May, the flexible basket of items which change price frequently, rose at an annualized 7.5% rate, while the sticky price index rose at a 2.9% annualized rate.

     

    I believe that it is probable that a 1.5% to 2% range for the PCE index, the FED's current forecast, will be too low for 2015. The Fed had a reasonably favorable view of the economy going forward with unemployment declining significantly over the next two years. Capacity utilization is almost back to the long term average. There are shortages now of skilled labor. We shall see whether the Fed's 2015-2016 inflation forecasts prove prescient or are based more on a desire to keep the FF rate at zero for another year as inflation perks up.

     

    More importantly, a majority of FED members are projecting a 1% or higher FF rate by year-end 2015 and 2% by year-end 2016. If those predictions prove prescient, that will start to impact the borrowing costs of leveraged closed end bond funds and mortgage REITs. The rise from 1% to 2% would be sufficient to trigger a coupon increase in rates for junk senior bank loans with floors.

     

    http://bit.ly/15doD2h

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    A 2% FF rate is well below the historical normal level which is in the 4% to 4.25% range as noted recently by Fed Governor Dudley. The FED members are currently predicting a lower long term "normal" FF range (page 3 of June FED projections). Eleven members now see that normal rate at 3.75% or lower. That same point was made in a recent speech by the N.Y. Fed President Dudley that I previously cited here. That type of forecast is consistent with their long term forecast of PCE inflation ranging between 1.5% to 2%.

     

    The PCE price index is currently running below CPI. I would anticipate a 1.8% PCE price index increase for the 12 months ending in May, up from 1.6% in April, when that number is next reported by the government. The 1.62% number was up from 1.14% in March. The median PCE went up to 2.12% in April.

     

    The PCE price index number is released as part of the "Personal Income and Outlays" report.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/qTFsOo

     

    The next release is scheduled for 6/26.

     

    Medical expenses are trending up again and have a far greater weighting in the PCE index than in CPI. Medical care has a 20.6% weighting in PCE and only about 7.1% in CPI.

     

    http://bit.ly/1prjL1J

     

    Some government reimbursement issues last year restrained the growth of medical expenses.

     

    The FED of course recognizes that its ownership of $2.275T in treasuries, mostly maturing in 10 years or later, and still growing, place downward pressure on prices:

     

    "The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative"

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1jzDZiL

     

    Current holdings:

     

    http://nyfed.org/12yg38A
    18 Jun, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    I meant to say that FED acknowledged that its ownership of a sizable and increasing number of treasuries places downward pressure on yields and upward pressure on prices for longer dated treasuries. I was watching a college baseball game while typing and had another senior moment.

     

    Most investors understand that the substantial reduction in supply of treasuries, through the FED's QE purchases coupled with the normal internal ownership in the SS trust fund and by other agencies ($5T or so), creates a shortage, causing yields to fall and prices to rise particularly when there is an increase in demand for any reason. Buyers have to pay up whenever there is a shortage. The impact of demand/supply equation for treasuries was recently noted by Gundlach as one of several reasons, unrelated to inflation and inflation expectations, keeping longer term yields down:

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    18 Jun, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M, South

     

    First, I don't believe i heard anyone saying there is zero inflation,

     

    It (inflation) is still within the acceptable levels and to me its a dynamic situation that is of course under scrutiny.

     

    The diff between myself and many others is that I do believe the fed knows what is going on...

     

    More meaningful to me is the reaction that i have heard so far ---it is disbelief in the feds assessment of the inflation situation,, and while i m not putting my head in the sand--

     

    I'll simply say -- I'm still on their side -- and positioned accordingly.... Price action rules ... and i'm playing the cards that are dealt..

     

    I won't be in the crowd to now sit and ring my hands over 2% or 2.2% or 2.2234% inflation numbers at THIS stage of the recovery.. I suggest doing that wont add anything to the bottom line of a portfolio..

     

    In my view we have many more reports and decisions that can and will be made as the situation develops.. That includes what the fed will do and what an individual investor can do ...

     

    18 Jun, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    FG. Take a look at this chart and tell me you actually believe todays inflation projections from the Fed well into 2015 are likely to be credible.
    18 Jun, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Macroo

     

    Believe what u wish to about the credibility of the fed and their view on inflation..

     

    the Fed is comprised of PHD's in economics.. a degree that i do not possess

     

    so until I get my PHD in economics i will remain on their side -- and go with their assessment of the Current situation..

     

    I will add --- even IF i wanted to disbelieve the fed at this exact moment in time about their forecasts on inflation..

     

    -- what do i do---- hit the equity sell button and buy Gold ?

     

    At this point in time based on what i know - Im not there yet..
    18 Jun, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    I would respective submit 2 things:

     

    The Fed's history is not encouraging when it comes to accurate forecasts;

     

    I do not have a PHD nor any advanced degree; I suspect there are PHD's out there who would question the Fed's current inflation forecast.

     

    As to a plan of action each one has to decide how to interpret the data and plot a course...I am just amazed....
    18 Jun, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Macro,,

     

    Fair enough .. and certainly good advice as all need to make decisions and sleep at night ..

     

    after digesting the feds actions yesterday - and listening to the commentary that followed-- mostly negative --

     

    I wonder what people expected the fed to do differently yesterday

     

    Not directed at you or anyone here - just a general observation and question on my part..
    19 Jun, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG;

     

    I expected them to speed up the taper by 5 B; and acknowledge the inflation trends most of us see.

     

    Certainly the Gold and energy market sees it clearly.

     

    One or 2 more inflationary reports and the market will disbelieve the Fed . I would'nt hold one corporate bond right now for twice the posted yields, and once a buyers strike occurs in corporate debt; buybacks funded by that debt cease.

     

    I am re-establishing shorts here focused on social media and expensive consumer - oriented stocks.
    19 Jun, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M

     

    Again, too reactionary and too soon.
    19 Jun, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M, FG, et al:

     

    Many years ago, a close investor friend and I always use to joke with each other that we were always right in our determinations, just "too soon." In similar, half-joking fashion we would say that we were so damn smart we could see, what others could not, much more quickly. Unfortunately, even if we were geniuses and correct in our assessments, we could see that it wasn't making us a dime.

     

    The lesson I learned from that was that it wasn't important how prescient I might be, as to what was to come; it was only important how fast the average investor ("the market") grasped what was happening. So, I learned to pay attention to the market,but not totally abandon my own assessments, just to modulate their timing.

     

    As regards today's market: yes, we have some inflation; yes, it's likely to increase; yes, it will drag rates higher. Then, one day, the Fed will act, and the market will probably lurch lower rather quickly initially, and for a while. After that, the economy, inflation and rates will still trend higher until such time as the Fed is forced to make such increases as flatten the yield curve and bring in the next recession.

     

    That's the pattern, and we're not there yet, either to the first rate-led correction or to the final top for the economy and markets.
    18 Jun, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    well said,,

     

    in my simplistic mind-- that is what i was trying to convey by saying price action rules and play the hand that is dealt..

     

    However - i may use your description in my blog commentary -- -- makes it seem that i do have that PHD in economics - LOL
    18 Jun, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    I received the RIG dividend late today. The dividend was classified as a "return of capital" and consequently no Swiss withholding tax was withheld. My cost basis will be adjusted down by the amount of the dividend.

     

    I noted earlier that RIG was sourcing this year's dividend from "paid-in capital" rather than earnings.

     

    When that source dries up, it is unclear to me whether the dividend will be maintained at the current $.75 per share quarterly rate after 1 year at that rate.

     

    RIG does not have a history of paying dividends:

     

    My position in Zurich Insurance (OTCQX:ZURVY), another Swiss company, was originally purchased at $24.72, but my cost basis is now $19.21. I have received three annual dividends classified as ROC. Zurich has earnings to cover the dividend but the dividend sourcing was out of capital surplus rather than earnings. No Swiss withholding tax has been withheld from those 3 dividends, nor have I had to pay a federal income tax on them due to their ROC classification.

     

    For my NVS dividends, a 15% Swiss tax is withheld:

     

    Snapshot at 1. Added 50 NVS at $76.72
    http://bit.ly/1cIkQrJ

     

    **********

     

    My cash allocation is inching up some and is now over 20%.

     

    My Y-T-D performance numbers through 5/31/14, calculated by Fidelity for 4 accounts, are outpacing the S & P 500 with that cash allocation earning .01%:

     

    Performance Numbers YTD
    http://bit.ly/1ibafOn

     

    7.87%
    10.48%
    8.51%
    8.2%

     

    As long as I can keep pace with the S & P 500, I will probably continue to be a net seller into the current move up in both bonds and stocks.
    18 Jun, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    hot off the FT presses
    US share buybacks and dividends hit record
     
    http://on.ft.com/1pgL37J
     
    "Members of the S&P 500 index – led by Apple, IBM, ExxonMobil and FedEx – spent $241bn to repurchase shares and pay cash dividends in the three months to March 31, surpassing the prior record of $233bn set in the third quarter of 2007, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. "
    18 Jun, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    No surprises here !

     

    http://bit.ly/1yp3m0B
    19 Jun, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    CNN fear greed 95 today. Not that it matters.

     

    Is a 100 print possible?
    19 Jun, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Macro,
    interesting point - but the latest AAII survey shows the number of bulls has come way down,, -- I actually was surprised when i saw it

     

    http://bit.ly/1uHcIQM

     

    these indicators change like the wind direction
    19 Jun, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG

     

    Don't know want to say. I am short 9 Nasdaq consumer / momo / social media stocks. 7 finished right on their lows, and these are big cap Nasdaq names.

     

    The index, of course, rallies right into the close. Automatic, every day. I'm just not seeing the risk of piling in here like so many are. I am really not likening the inflation trends I'm seeing, and that is the problematic catalyst.

     

    Does Ms. Yellen calling inflation a non-issue automatically make it so?

     

    I am frustrated by the blind disregard for risk I continue to see. How can one happily lend money in the junk bond market for 5% when the CPI is heading to 3%?

     

    Of course -- this empowers the record Buybacks, which support (often unprofitable ) equities.

     

    I cannot understand the risk / reward in lending to lower quality borrowers for a 2% real yield! At least with treasuries you get your money back.
    19 Jun, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    I wouldn't go piling in here either, but i think waiting for a stock that may be on your radar screen to come down to a support level or a comfortable buy range is the way to go..

     

    Don't have to "marry" it , but I am trying to pick my spots now and play along with the trend that is in place ..

     

    I.E the solar trend we talked about .. (FSLR) ,,
    I also added (LVS) 2.7% yield that has come down to my buy level.. and I pulled the trigger..

     

    just some thoughts ..

     

    Good luck
    19 Jun, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG;

     

    Any thoughts on the outsized Gold move today and implications for other markets, if any?

     

    No gold position for me right now.
    19 Jun, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Macro: I bought my first gold coin when I was 13. The price was then $35 per ounce and it was illegal for U.S. citizens to own gold bullion. It was possible to buy gold coins minted by the U.S. mint that were "legal tender".

     

    Gold in my opinion has no discernible fair value. So, I do not try to link its price to anything or figure out what an ounce is worth. Human psychology and the beliefs of those who do not trust currencies as a store of value are probably more important than inflation or any other concrete and objective factor.

     

    I own gold bullion and last sold some of it when the price cross $1900 back in September 2011 and some more in January 2012:

     

    1. Recent Silver and Gold Coin Sales:
    http://bit.ly/XqU0Bx

     

    8. Snapshot of Coin Sales in January 2012:
    http://bit.ly/18tKuTV

     

    I mentioned above a principal protected note whose coupon is tied to the price of gold. The symbol is MOL, and I own 200 shares. I will just drag and drop that earlier discussion:

     

    MOL, which is tied to the gold price, may pay more than its minimum coupon of 2% on a $10 par value.

     

    Starting Value Gold London P.M 11/20/13: $1,257

     

    London P.M. Fix:
    http://bit.ly/1xReX8D

     

    Maximum Level Violation: 1495.83 ($1,257 x.1.19=1,495.83)

     

    MLV causes reversion to minimum coupon.

     

    End Date: 11/19/14

     

    Coupon: Minimum 2% up to 19%.

     

    Prospectus:
    http://1.usa.gov/1xReVxk

     

    MOL has a chance to pay more than its 2% coupon, and trading activity perked up today in that one. By perk up, I am talking about 2,300 shares traded today with a close at $10.29:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/UjmBch

     

    If there was no P.M. London fix above 1,495.83 on or before 11/19/14, and there has not been to date during this last annual coupon period, then this senior unsecured note could pay up to a 19% coupon based on the price of gold on 11/19/14, P.M. London Fix. An increase of the 2% minimum coupon would occur with an End Date close of over $1,282.14. A hypothetical close of $1450, with no MLV, would result in a 15.35% annual coupon on a ten dollar par value ($1450 - $1257=193 divided by $1257=15.35%). The note matures in November of this year. I bought shares at below par value and will be content to receive the 2% or anything more.

     

    I also own 200 of MTY whose coupon is also tied to the price of gold and has a 3% minimum coupon on a $10 par value.

     

    MTY's starting value for gold is $1,329.75 per ounce, a MLV of $1,795.16 and a 8/4/14 End Date.

     

    The P.M. London fix on 6/19/14 was $1,293. To pay more than its minimum 3% coupon, gold would have close above $1,369.64 on 8/4/14 (End Date), assuming no MLV which is not likely to occur since that would require a close above $1,795.16 before the End Date.

     

    Some investors view buying those two PPNs near their respective End Dates as a short term option on the price of gold, which would be free (exclusive of taxes) with a total purchase price below the par value + minimum coupon. That amount is the worst possible outcome assuming Citigroup survives to pay the notes which mature this year. Until today, it was possible to buy MOL below that number.

     

    I also added today to my position in the Permanent Portfolio which has a large gold and silver bullion position:

     

    http://on-msn.com/YWt3ki

     

    **********

     

    On the inflation subject, I noted today a WSJ article that health insurance premiums may rise 10% or more later this year.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/UjmzkO

     

    Medical costs represent over 20% of PCE, currently the FED's preferred inflation index.
    19 Jun, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    it caught my attention -

     

    my guess --- combination of the Iraq situation and the gold bugs believe further inflation is indeed a possibility..

     

    also interpreting Yellen and the fed as being behind the curve on the inflation ,,

     

    if so ,,, then we have to ask the question,, why didn't the S & P drop 20 points today ......

     

    mixed signals at best...
    19 Jun, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG;

     

    I don't know. That was one big gold move, that happened without new Iraq events, really.

     

    There is a huge Divergence between some of the stocks I am short; and the SPX which goes higher daily.

     

    And Why are defensive Utilities continuing to rip this year? So many questions....

     

    I notice; when I scan the articles and comments, there are no bears to speak of even on SA -- wouldn't you agree?
    Food for thought.
    19 Jun, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Macro,,

     

    I commented on 2 articles here on SA today --

     

    first "the Bear is about to maul the Bull"

     

    and a very cautionary article from Bret Jensen who has been a long time bull -- "dont fall asleep " as he is worried about complacency

     

    & he is raising cash --

     

    agreed --- lots of crosscurrents ..
    19 Jun, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    FG;

     

    Lets be accurate. I just read the first article. 138 comments. Point out to me ONE "doom and gloom, crashing, I'm shorting this type" comment, please.

     

    Are you kidding -- GO Lakers trashes the OP because he has 10% cash! Wow, I say.

     

    The article -- To draw readers -- asks IS the bear about to maul the bull; and the author is fully invested other than 14%, and advocates nothing different.

     

    Not exactly a doom and gloom crash article. Bret and the Inflation trader are cautious here. Not calling for a crash! Admit it. Bears are extinct. Even the cautious writers are fully invested.

     

    I am only a tactical bear on the social media / momo; which are making lower highs. And I bet publicly at least, I am completely alone in that call.
    19 Jun, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    well then ,, FWIW, Harry Dent was on CNBC this aft and predicts the Dow will be at 10,000 next year ..
    19 Jun, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    The only bear left, apparently. (willing to come on TV).

     

    I would rather buy when the tv is full of bears -- and SA too.
    19 Jun, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Macro,

     

    not gonna happen now as most have been already carried out..

     

    and anyone still breathing has been beaten beyond recognition as they continued to short into the rally ..

     

    U are wanting a once in a lifetime reason to buy, that isn't now .. it was back in '09 & 10 --- The TV was full of bears in 2010 -- those days are gone .. & u know -- ironically very few bought then .... because when the "once in a lifetime " is presented few step up..

     

    If you are going to use that as your backdrop , then u wont be buying.. However that doesn't mean this market can't and won't go higher..

     

    there are other factors at work , besides the lack of bears.. ..

     

    I still maintain, this market is despised as no one understands how it can go up ,, when they do , it will be too late.. & we aren't there yet..

     

    Food for thought..
    19 Jun, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Mmmm.....despised....I would say cash is pretty despised....judging by the yield chasing going on.

     

    Just my view.
    19 Jun, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Looking at data is often instructive:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/p9k...
    19 Jun, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    This market is all over the place, I was surprised to see the melt up this afternoon.

     

    Feels like I should sell some shares of my winners, but it's hard to decide what to do.

     

    Let's see how it goes tomorrow.

     

    So far, the market seems to like what Obama has decided to do with the Iraq crisis. Works for me, let's see the people that live there attempt to solve their problems before we go back in with guns blazing.

     

    The gold market is a hedge for those that think the end is near.
    19 Jun, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    Iraq is a non-event, as regards the global economy.
    19 Jun, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF, everyone

     

    I was wondering too if profit taking is in order. I don't have enough of any one position to be worth selling, but is hard to know.

     

    Market seems to love the news, even if a more sensible look is not to, or to have a little caution.
    19 Jun, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Oracle reported disappointing earnings, stock fell. New technology is constantly destroying old tech. It's a tough business. (IBM) has been falling too.

     

    (MSFT) holding steady, but not getting past $42 a share.

     

    Overall, I'm positive for the future. Driving past some restaurants yesterday, Houlihan's was packed. Walmart parking lot full, new Costco going up....all on the rt. 1 corridor in NJ.

     

    Hopewell, my favorite little town, is a happening place these days. Looks like more 55+ folks are moving into the area to enjoy living near Princeton, Lamberton, etc.

     

    "Jersey Boys" movie is out now, directed by Cliff Eastwood about Frankie Vale & his boy band. Looks good. Based on the Broadway show in NYC....if you haven't seen the movie about Jersey politics & corruption with Jennifer Lawrence, it's a must see...."American Hustle." Another hilarious Jersey bit was Gov. Christie shaken' it with Jimmy Fallon....

     

    http://bit.ly/1se3VtD

     

    Jersey's back, baby!!
    19 Jun, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,
    if you have outsized gains , sure , if not and are in for the long haul - i would stay the course..

     

    as an example ..... I just rang the register on some oil stocks that are up over 35% this year . and felt compelled to take that quick profit.. no matter what i think of the LT situation ..

     

    I also believe i can buy them back later on and still do well with them ..

     

    my .02
    19 Jun, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F,

     

    I've gained 18% on (CVX) since Feb... maybe it is time to take that gain? Next ex-div is a while off, Aug 15. I'm thinking of it as long term hold for the core amount. If I were to gain enough & go back in, I'd rather diversify into (COP).

     

    (LINE) is finally down only 2.5%! Ex-div is monthy, July 7. So no gains to take, but with it up with energy, I've wondered about selling and rebuying on a dip. I'm planning on medium hold or long term if it stays good.
    19 Jun, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    Expect further breakout in Crude oil -- I'm long -- to 110 level. Expect this to be a downside catalyst for consumer stocks. Obama NOT sending troops actually upside catalyst for higher crude prices.
    19 Jun, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2927) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Article which describes the prevailing sentiment. "don't wait -- must buy now".

     

    Articles I have seen lately are very negative on holding ANY cash -- calling that a form of market timing.
    19 Jun, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3518) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Here comes chapter #30!

     

    http://bit.ly/1m1WKjy
    19 Jun, 11:36 PM Reply Like
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