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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #30 181 comments
    Jun 19, 2014 11:02 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #29. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #28: seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land... (I've been putting in the right links, but sometimes this doesn't seem to work correctly. You can always go to my profile, then to my instablogs, and find the latest.)

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!. Several have their own instablogs with their ideas outlined well!

    Disclosure: The author is long SPY, IWM, DIA, QQQ, LINE, CVX.

    Additional disclosure: ...and more... ask me if you're curious!

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (181)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome!

     

    ... as the Fed marches on...

     

    what's the best stock move you've ever made?
    (Bragging rights included.)

     

    ---

     

    On a more serious note - do you have any charts or tools you use to track your trades and portfolio?

     

    I've wanted to see how balanced (or not) mine was. I found Vanguard as a tool that for known ETFs and stocks, will show by percent, country, industry, capsize, etc..
    (My 401k isn't "known" though so that's excluded. You can't even get a list of what stocks are in the ETFs from them.)

     

    Are there good tools & spreadsheets for tracking buys, sells, dividends, ex-div & earnings dates, etc.? Several people have asked me. I've set up a few but none that have kept me organized.
    19 Jun, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    L, Merrill Edge tracks my gains/losses, %'s etc. Looking at the summary graph, month after month gives me an overall picture of portfolio performance.

     

    As far as PE ratios, dividends, etc. I should set up a spreadsheet to track that.

     

    It's so hard to pick my best performer, because some are up a lot % wise. But if I didn't buy that many shares, the overall gains are not great $ wise.

     

    (SWKS) has done the best % wise. Biggest $ gainer would be (NOC).

     

    As for dividends.....(PSEC) makes me the most $ from dividends. Considering that the dividend has increased over time, (PSEC) is worth holding IMO. Check out PSEC's dividend history here:

     

    http://bit.ly/18dbPH4
    20 Jun, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Please note, as a matter of principal, all investors should do their own research before buying any stock, bond, ETF, mutual fund, etc.

     

    Here on SA, there are lots of articles about (PSEC) & any other investment you are considering. That's just your starting point, please don't ever buy (or short) an investment because someone on SA said you should.

     

    Some stocks are "pump & dump" types. Be wary of buying speculative stocks that an author is talking up (or down). Another reason to stick with companies that are successfully making $ from great products for decades.
    20 Jun, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    BSF: RE: (PSEC)

     

    I'm no BDC expert, but this was an interesting article: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I also haven't seen many people talking about the insider purchases of (PSEC) recently. Insider selling, especially options-related, isn't always very meaningful. However, it's my understanding that insider purchases are a bit more reliable.

     

    I'm not recommending (PSEC) one way or the other, just putting some extra information on the table for people to mull. The whole delisting issue is hard to puzzle out - is that the only reason for the short BDC trade or is there something else going on? Also, what's the broader implication for the Russell?
    20 Jun, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    In my early days of investing.. maybe i should call it specuatlating, -- lol

     

    I was living in NJ and got caught up in the news about Nj turning Atl City into the las Vegas on the east coast by allowing gaming . It was the fourth attempt to allow gaming into the state as the first 3 attempts were shot down.... so no one believed...

     

    I 'thought' it might be passed this time... bought 500 shares of a company called resorts Int. for $1 , when the gaming was approved and they built the first casino in NJ the stock went to over 100 split and went to 200 , split again... u get the picture..

     

    I didn't hold it thru all of the splits but turned the $500 into a little over 100,000..

     

    However, no bragging here, I was in my early 20's felt invincible and thought i knew it all.. over the next few years the market taught me the lessons that all need to learn and i gave most of that back ... I did buy a new '73 chevy from the proceeds .. cost around 3,000 ...

     

    Those were the days...
    20 Jun, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    $500 to $100,000. I think that's going to be hard to top!
    20 Jun, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    BC,,

     

    U r right ,but like i said i gave it back , I had no clue !!

     

    so i'm hoping someone has a story that has a better ending.. ;)

     

    Well at least I got a car out of it ... :)
    20 Jun, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    I still think it counts. LOMAH can be the judge. Plus, mistakes can be good learning experiences.
    20 Jun, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    Not as good as F&G, but I was given $1000 as a birthday gift in either 1996 or '97. I decided to implement the strategy my classmate and I had come up with in an economics class a year or so prior in highschool and thus won the investing challenge the instructor had given the class (we were the only ones to make a profit in that six months and I now suspect that hippy of setting it up the way he did to discourage people from investing).

     

    Choose the weirdest named company out of the stock listings in the newspaper.

     

    I chose Xicor (defunct now - bought out?). I opened a discount brokerage account that only charged $45 a trade. I believe I bought in for $3.50. It promptly dropped to under $2.

     

    Being a stupid 19 yo, I give credit to myself for not selling it and take what money was left and spending it on something stupid. After about six months or so, I just kind of mentally wrote it off.

     

    I sold it a year and a half later when my dad gave me the heads up that it was approaching $9. I sold it and am sure I spent the money on something stupid.

     

    My second pick to buy at that time using the weirdest name criteria was called Yahoo. I believe it was $19 a share at the time. I decided that since I could have more shares of Xicor, I would go with that one. About the time I sold Xicor, I checked up on Yahoo's price and it was around $100. I'm still grumpy about that.
    20 Jun, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    Ha, good stuff! I have a similar story, practice stock picking in school. In my case I just went for what had the biggest number (highest price... great idea right?) and ended up with Berkshire Hathaway. I didn't know at the time about Warren Buffet or any of that stuff, it was just BerkHa $180,000 or whatever it was. So many digits! Meanwhile my friend was all about Pfizer. This was back before Pfizer was a big deal and so it was actually a brilliant idea in hindsight. But neither of us had any idea. It was just another funny named company. Also, this was back when people still used newspapers, that's where we looked up the prices. All the companies in the NYSE and NASDAQ were listed: name/ticker, price, change from prior day. Nowadays we have smartphones and Yahoo Finance. Actually, I kind of wonder how did people invest back then before the internet? How would you even research a company?
    20 Jun, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    I believe people paid for things like "value line". I know that I bought a year's subscription to Investor's Business Daily around the turn of the century. I thought it was a good resource and so was the book "How to Make Money in Stocks". I really need to scour my parent's bookshelves the next time I visit to see if I left it there or if it was the casualty of one of my frequent moves. If I was inclined to and they are still in business, IBD was a good paper. Just makes more sense to me to go do your own research with the internet available for cheap.

     

    I remember something else - when I had my crappy studio apartment my phonebook had 900 numbers - I could pay a hotline to find out the scores of NFL games I couldn't watch or find out how the stock market was doing in "real time".

     

    But I was driving a semi at that time and thus couldn't read IBD every day - just the stockpiled copies my parents would collect when I would come home every couple of months for a few days.

     

    And then I got a subscription to XM radio. And discovered Jim Cramer on the radio well before he had a tv show. Booyah!!! I even rented one of his books-on-tapes to listen to whilst driving.

     

    In retrospect, I'm kind of glad I just started the Roth at the beginning of 2000 and just put money into the reit fund and total market fund because hopefully I had at the time sense enough to realize that I wouldn't have adequate information available to me to keep up with an individual company.

     

    It's my birthday today and damn writing this is making me feel old even though I know most on here are older than me.
    20 Jun, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    Happy Birthday!

     

    That's interesting about how you got information. I guess it wasn't all that bad then. I just never thought about it much before.
    20 Jun, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    BC,

     

    Please don't get me wrong - I had no idea as to what I was doing. I basically threw a dart at the paper during an opportune time to pick my first stock. I picked that reit fund at an opportune time and not due to any skill. And I certainly didn't know how to utilize the information that I had available.

     

    I know a lot more than I did at the time and am certainly smarter about picking out investments, but will I ever get 100% gains yoy again? Probably not. But maybe I can protect what I have and get a decent yield and avoid selling for a loss.
    20 Jun, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Happy Birthday User! If you are under 57 you are younger than me.

     

    It's not how old you are, it's how young you feel, or something like that.
    20 Jun, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    What a story! Whatever you did after that -- it most definitely counts as a successful trade! Imagine losing most of it, without having made it first?

     

    That early $500 was in actuality a high bet in terms of those days.

     

    So can you list any of the lessons you learned? (I mean with the market, not in the '73 chevy.)
    20 Jun, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7

     

    So that's the way to bet - weirdest names? That's a fun story... with a nice ending. You may not have called the top (Yahoo) but you called a winner and made a nice profit, so kudos to you.
    20 Jun, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BC

     

    So you prove the random picking theory too? Next thing we know, you and U7 will write a technique book, and get rich to old fashioned way --- though royalties.
    20 Jun, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7

     

    Happy Birthday!! Most of us are older than you, so you can still smile about blowing out less candles :).
    20 Jun, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    I tried to think of my best move, since I haven't done much beyond buy ETFs and ignore them. Probably when i went shopping for brokers to manage my money. Some newbie I'd interviewed was so eager and happily called to warn me to sell my IBM pronto.

     

    I had a flu with over 103 for 3 days. So I told him I wasn't making any decisions right then. He persisted, until he turned me off from considering a broker all together.

     

    So I don't remember the numbers from early 2000, but I'm pretty sure my IBM did quite well after that. (It did in the next couple years that he was worried about), and had nice dividends all along to boot. Plus it probably did me well, to learn to be cautious about brokers in that call from him....!
    20 Jun, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,
    $500 was a big bet in those days - shows you how little i knew at the time,, and worse yet the lessons i learned the hard way .

     

    it opened my eyes to the markets both the good & the bad -- from that time on i was fascinated and made it a compulsion to learn whatever i could..

     

    I had some good mentors along the way , you can listen and learn from the best --- 'experience " is the best teacher of all.. as the old saying goes if i knew then what i know now..

     

    lesson # 1 -- cant go broke taking a profit.. :)
    21 Jun, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Well I've enjoyed your fascination.. and what you've shared :).

     

    Profits sound good...
    21 Jun, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome to newcomers! We've moved onto chapter 31, so please join us there!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Jul, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    In the last chapter, deciding whether to hold positions or sell & take profits was mentioned.

     

    This is where my philosophy differs from most of you. If the stock is a dividend growth producer, then it's my goal to keep that stock. As long as the dividend is growing & the company is not in danger of going bankrupt, this is exactly the type of stock I want to own. Now, here's the concept that is very difficult for non-dividned growth investors to grasp. It's not the price of the stock that interests me, as much as the ***number of total shares*** that I own. Since timing the market is impossible for me, I will happily buy more shares if my stock goes down in price. But only up to a point, as portfolio diversification is also important to me.

     

    (NLY) (COP) (MO) (KO) (PEP) are all stocks that I would add to, but not sell. There are many more DGI stocks, David Fish's CCC list give you hundreds to choose from.

     

    The one thing I can time is when to buy a stock. It's very important to not purchase a stock when it's over valued. Determining when a stock is undervalued has been covered very well by Carnevale here on SA.

     

    An example of a stock that is fairly valued, at this time is (T). Look at that dividend - over 5%. Now that's a true DGI stock.

     

    My goal is to build a portfolio that is a dividend producing machine. It's the dividend income, year after year, that will provide income to live on during retirement. Dividends can also give you income right now, to use for all kinds of things. Like buying more stocks. Your tax on dividends is not that bad (in a non-retirement investing account)....less than what you pay for short term gains.

     

    A few months ago, I strayed from my DGI path. Bought some of those growth stocks, after they got hammered.

     

    So far, my experience has been so-so. No huge gains to speak of; some gains, which are helping cover the losses that some of the stocks had. But I'm patient & will continue to hold to see what happens in the next few months.

     

    (SCTY) was down a lot; with the recent up tick, I'm back to green. (GILD) and (CELG) are doing very well. (PCLN) gives me nausea. As does (ICPT) & (TSLA). (NVAX) goes up but goes down too. (WDAY) (SSYS) (FB) (GOOGs) all are in wait & see mode.

     

    The short term gyrations of my stocks don't bother me, it's the long term trend that is more important. Long term to me is 10, 20, 30 years out.

     

    Long term, I'm very positive.

     

    So if we get a good dip, I'll be buying.

     

    20 Jun, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SA author, Eric Parnell has his latest bear article... but then says in the comments:

     

    "I do not think the sentiments of individuals or small to mid-size institutions really matter to the direction of the market right now. This rally will continue until the computers and large institutions finally decide to turn the other direction. As a result, the current rally could go on much longer than anyone, even some of the bulls, might imagine.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Makes solid sense to me. The larger institutions will be self fulfilling at wanting this to continue, exclusive of anything dire on the horizon.
    21 Jun, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    LMH,
    Eric's done a great job in writing provocative articles with "catchy" titles , thus insuring a high number of page views thereby adding more dollars to his SA account..

     

    the articles are getting as bit "old' in the sense that he has been incorrect for quite some time now regarding the equity market ..

     

    so the sentiment stays the same in the hopes of eventually being right ,,
    but if one has followed the ill timed advice ----- at what price?
    21 Jun, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    It's funny for me as I read these articles. It's the same stories as a year ago. Only at the time it all sounded so important and useful as well as contradictory. Now so very much sounds like noise to me. I don't get much desire to post to various ones except to say "it's the same point this author (there are quite a few) have been making for a year now." So many of the crash indicators don't exist, and now when I read, I can see that.

     

    I agree Eric is sharp with how he words his articles and titles to draw in readers. And he always sounds bearish, yet when he posted his position most clearly in that comment -- it's quite bullish.

     

    What I've noticed is that I have not enough ability yet to filter out the noise on judging individual stocks...
    21 Jun, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    My thoughts for this week --

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Jun, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Excellent commentary and advice on all of the inflation talk ----from Jeff Miller on his weekly update

     

    http://dashofinsight.com
    22 Jun, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Boy it's quiet on here.

     

    Folks on summer vacation? I'll be out again today, then finally back.

     

    Was hoping Macro, Tack, SG, DD... and everyone would add one of their more successful trades, here. It's fun to read.

     

    Looks like more dip before the economic news... chance for buying...
    24 Jun, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Well, just a few for grist:

     

    Bought NRF at $3.50, sold some $16.25
    Bought AAL at $3.10, sold most at $39.40
    Bought various bank and REIT preferreds at $4-6, sold most at $18-25

     

    Haven't add any other grand-slam home runs because I don't generally speculate in non-dividend payers.
    24 Jun, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,
    quiet as trading on the exchanges in the last 2 days --

     

    watching and waiting .. :)
    24 Jun, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    L, F;

     

    ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...

     

    for a trader. planning lots of fun summer stuff.
    24 Jun, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    So for you a great move would be one of your early, or quality dividend investments. It's just a fun question, to share whatever made you feel proud of your decision... or incredibly lucky :).
    24 Jun, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, M

     

    It is quiet out there...good point.

     

    lots of "out of the office" replies to emails lately too.

     

    So M, what kind of fun do you have planned? Anything we should all be investing in? (Gotta make my questions about investing, even if they're really about having fun:).)
    24 Jun, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    I didn't feel lucky. The Treasury and Fed told us they were going to recapitalize the banks, so I saw investment in their preferred shares as nearly risk free. Even though that was highly profitable, due to the unique circumstances of the time, in normal markets success is usually garnered by lots of singles, rather than an occasional long ball.
    24 Jun, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    So that fits the version I said of "proud of your decision"?

     

    It was a good call to see that banks would come back up. You picked prefers - because as long as they had the liquidity they'd pay then off, vs. common shares that depend on so many other factors?

     

    Did any of the banks go under? For a while they were left and right.
    24 Jun, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    On March 23, 2009, Treasury Secretary Geithner announced the Government's Public-Private Investment Program (P-PIP), whereby the Government would invest in private banks by buying preferred shares. From that instant, the risk that any large money-center or major regional bank would go under ceased to exist. The preferred shares were exceedingly attractive because at prices 65-75% below par, they were exhibiting yields in the mid- to upper-20% range, and they were paying the dividends. That was like standing in front of a broken ATM machine that was regurgitating dollars onto your feet. At those yields, upward price movement was just a huge bonus.

     

    The common shares were not nearly as attractive because they were paying no dividends, had little earnings, and it was impossible to calculate their trajectories in the near term, at the time.

     

    I sincerely doubt we'll see another sure-bet opportunity, such as that moment, again in our lifetimes.
    24 Jun, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Wow. Well, glad you were there to catch it. You are right - unlikely for something that good to show up again.
    24 Jun, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    LMH: For recent purchases made within the past several months, the best selections for 2014 have been in those sectors that have outperformed so far this year. This would include energy stocks and REITs. CNQ, which I bought about 6 months ago, is up 43%. COP was bought earlier this year and is up 30%.

     

    I noticed that F & G took some profits in energy stocks. My gut tells me that the recent spike up in that sector may be near an end. I have elected to keep my individual names in that sector, since I still view them as good stocks long term and they are not yet in my consider to sell ranges.

     

    Instead of selling individual energy stocks that I own, I decided yesterday to execute what I call a paired trade, selling the ETF (ENY) and buying the ETF (EWC).

     

    ENY is a U.S. ETF that owns Canadian energy stocks, including infrastructure companies, and I already own the top two holdings (SU and CNQ). That ETF has benefited from the price surge this year in energy stocks, as well as the rise since March in the Canadian Dollar vs. the USD.

     

    EWC is a broad based Canadian ETF that will own the Canadian energy companies. SU and CNQ are among the top 10 holdings at numbers 4 and 6 rather than 1 and 2 in ENY:

     

    http://bit.ly/1jcUp0L

     

    ENY was up YTD about 20.15% in price, about twice as much as EWC.

     

    Both ENY and EWC are prices in USDs and will consequently receive a tailwind in price when the CAD rises against the USD. Canadian CPI was reported last week at 2.3% Y-O-Y which was sufficient to trigger a rise in the CAD above its 200 days SMA line versus the USD. So, with both ETFs, I maintain exposure to CAD.

     

    Introduction Section-My Blog
    Canadian Dollar Rising Against the USD:
    http://bit.ly/1jcUp0O

     

    I sold a broad based Canadian ETF, priced in CADs, and discussed the trades in my last post.

     

    Trade and Profit Snapshots at
    3. Sold 200 shares of the Canadian Stock ETF XDV:CA at C$25.51
    http://bit.ly/1jcUp0O

     

    My profit in CADs was C$622. I bought that security with CADs and received CADs when I sold the security. However, due to the decline in the CAD vs. the USD since I purchased XDV:CA, I realized only a $190.78 profit in USDs which is the number that Fidelity will report to the IRS.

     

    As a U.S. taxpayer, both the original purchase amount and the proceeds are converted into USDs which is what created the difference between my actual profit in CADs and my tax profit in USDs.

     

    If the Canadian Dollar continues to rise against the USD, it may be better for me to buy a ETF priced in USDs that owns Canadian securities rather than a Canadian ETF priced in CADs. I can create an artificial "tax" profit by buying the later in that currency scenario.

     

    I have bought and sold EWC several times and my holding period has been generally a few weeks.

     

    The reasons for buying it can be briefly summarized as follows:

     

    1. Exposure to the CAD via a USD priced ETF that owns Canadian stocks after the CAD broke above its 200 day SMA line.

     

    2. I acquire a broader exposure to Canadian stocks including energy stocks that were the only stocks owned by ENY, the ETF sold as part of this paired trade.

     

    3. EWC is up about half as much as ENY so far this year

     

    4. Canadian stocks have significantly underperformed the U.S. market over the past 18 months.

     

    While EWC's performance last year was impacted some by the currency exchange rate, that ETF was up only 9.11% in 2013:

     

    Morningstar Total Return Numbers
    http://bit.ly/1jcUmSw

     

    5. EWC will soon go ex dividend for its semi-annual distribution.

     

    That is the kind of thought process that was used just for this one paired trade made yesterday. Sometimes, these paired trades work out for the best.
    24 Jun, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG,

     

    Thanks for sharing your thought process. Sounds good. It has a lot of moving parts to keep track of.
    24 Jun, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    South,
    i had the same gut feeling on the E & P oil names i sold..

     

    also, their charts started to look parabolic..

     

    I think I can buy them back at lower prices down the road ..
    24 Jun, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    If inflation picks up, you won't get them cheaper. Lots of drillers still way off previous highs.
    24 Jun, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - T

     

    If inflation takes off, will all stocks go "higher" (dollar inflating)... or is it sector specific that reacts?
    24 Jun, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    T,
    u make a good point - re: inflation

     

    the names I took profits in are PXD and CXO.. 40+% gains there.. and they are both at all time highs....

     

    IMO, They are really extended , In the case of PXD i'll look to renter around the 50 day MA.....
    24 Jun, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Funny to watch everyone get hysterical over a minor give back today. I did nothing with my positions.
    24 Jun, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Now I have my own strategy for this market -- but everyone else here is a long term investor. I figure when you see this kind of hysterics over nothing, you have to be backing up the truck.

     

    People say there is complacency. Maybe. Look at the huge wall of worry though. Look at the $13 trillion in bank accounts ready to come in the market. Here are the worries discounted by the market, while the improving economy with no inflation, is given no credit.

     

    Iraq
    Iran
    Dubai
    China
    Oil prices
    Dollar crash
    Interest rate spike
    Housing market.....
    Ect.......
    24 Jun, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    Macro: You must hang out with a different crowd than me.

     

    I did not see any "hysterics" today. I noted a pullback in energy stocks. My paired trade yesterday, involving the harvesting of a gain in ENY and then using the proceeds to buy EWC, worked in a fashion today since EWC went down less than ENY (-2.06% for ENY vs. -1/03% for EWC).

     

    As to being a long term investor, I am unfortunately not in that category, unless you mean by long term owning a stock for more than a year. I wish that I still owned some of those stocks bought during the summer of 1982 or even most of the stocks bought in 2009. If I still owned Intel bought in the early 1980s, I would be a long term investor, but alas I own only a few shares bought shortly after Lehman's failure with an average cost near $15 per share, rather than $.3 cents per share.

     

    I rarely sell a stock within three months after purchase. For a day trader, that may actually look like a long term investor. I do a lot of selling within a 3 month to 1 year window, and will generally have a significant amount of short term capital gains each year. I do own a large number of securities that have been held for more than 1 year and less than 6 years.
    24 Jun, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M,

     

    So you're expecting big climbing (back the truck up)? And that the market is ignoring the worries? And the economy with no inflation is a worry? I'm getting lost in your terminology so if you can give a quick comment to set me straight (if you have a chance.)
    24 Jun, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Not enough of a dip to buy for me. Lots of people are expecting a 10 % or more correction. Problem is, as soon as the market falls, the buy-the-dip people come in so we never see a really good correction. Unless something really major happens. Maybe later in August, if earnings are not good.

     

    However, looks like the economy has been humming along since Q1 disappointed. Read on CNBC that Q1 will be revised from -1% to -2%.

     

    Still lots of cash on the sidelines so looks to me like we continue higher. Those people who sat out last year are getting worried that they are missing out.

     

    The good thing is that many large US corporations do business all over the world. So they aren't only dependent on the US economy to do well. Works for me.
    24 Jun, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    It wasn't enough off to get me tempted either. I got used to the last round of dips looking bigger. So I may be way off here.

     

    (PDS) was down 2%. Not sure that's enough for time to dip in.
    24 Jun, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Extremebanker, TC, Cwinn - do you have any stories to tell? Anyone else :)?
    24 Jun, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Some names that bear watching and acting on ..

     

    (FFIV) (109) traded up on a down day ,

     

    (LVS) (75) which I just wrote an article about , looks like it can take off from these levels.. There are catalysts for a move higher and the dividend provides downside protection, I like the risk/reward...

     

    (MU) (32.5) another strong quarter - IMO it's still going higher .. it has a shot to earn $4 /sh. it's looking more like high 30's - 40 ...

     

    (GILD) (80)-- like the story .. & its inexpensive..

     

    (AAP) (131) looks like it just broke out with a new high today
    24 Jun, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    I have to do a better job with my tongue in cheek comments, obviously.

     

    I have changed neither my views nor my positioning.
    24 Jun, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    That was tongue in cheek? Ohhh.

     

    Funny story, I grew up in the north, and when I moved much closer to the south... for the first year, I had to end every joke with "just kidding." All the southerners who'd moved "much closer to the north" would take me seriously with every comment! I told a friend I'd been hanging out with for months "naw, I don't like you" and his face fell, he turned red....and it took me a while to convince him, if was just northern speak, tongue in cheek. That's when I knew, I'd moved "south.

     

    So you're thinking all those worries are valid and will start the market down, when it gets active on them? I'm still thinking it's early for that, on general market - but no opinion on the momo that you've been targeting and doing well with. That's my novice opinion, of course. :).
    24 Jun, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps a "TIC" could be added :)
    25 Jun, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    None of that above list (likely) matters. What will matter is if the market decides the Fed is behind the inflation curve. That's for collective participants to decide. Certainly it's on everyone's radar and not dismissed as just "noisy data ".
    24 Jun, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    That makes more sense... and matches what you've said before. The rest does seem like noise. The debate on inflation, I'm still reading on.
    24 Jun, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    my reaction to the latest GDP revision -2.9% --

     

    From the perma bear manual -- "this number cant be real - the gov is making this up "

     

    "TIC"
    25 Jun, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    LOL. Yep, that's right out of that manual. We all knew the winter number was low. Question is, how are the numbers after that...

     

    BSF - is this enough dip for you to buy?

     

    Macro's obviously of a different camp on this in general...
    25 Jun, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Interesting take on perhaps this number came about.

     

    Did the Gov't "kitchen sink" this quarter to add back "growth" next quarter -- before midterms?

     

    http://bit.ly/1ryey6C

     

    BTW as far as my positioning goes -- being negative on overvalued sectors does not Necessarily mean being negative on the economy.

     

    2 completely different things.
    25 Jun, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Thanks for the clarification -- duly noted!

     

    While I'm normally not supportive of claims, that adjustment for political purposes, is in line with what I'd consider very possible. It's not "lying", it's adjusting the stats to present the picture you desire... so I'd consider it possible.
    25 Jun, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    nope
    25 Jun, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    nope, answer to L's question "is this dip enough to buy?"

     

    things could get interesting in July/Aug.

     

    I'm fully invested & not doing anything at the moment.

     

    Dividends keep rolling in : )
    25 Jun, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    yes the GDP numbers going forward will be key.. can we rebound from a -2.9 to a +3-3.5 in the next quarter..??

     

    I am no economist and will rely on a colleague or two to help me in that regard-- I do know the economic numbers that have been released recently PMI, ISM, etc. all have shown good improvement .. so far , it appears the market is using that as its guide as it has moved to new highs..

     

    also, earnings revisions have been slanted to the upside now.. so the $120 for the S & P looks pretty solid for this year..

     

    we''ll have to let this GDP revision sink in with the economists and see what develops.
    25 Jun, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    Another thing, at least my view, is that GDP is a very distorted measure of economic performance, at least as currently configured, which can easily lead to misleading conclusions. It's much better to stay focused on corporate results.
    25 Jun, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, T

     

    There is a discrepancy between low GDP, and all the rest of the numbers coming out...
    25 Jun, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    T,
    and on that front (corp. results) - i like what i see.
    25 Jun, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Well market's decided the same thing...
    25 Jun, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Who knows? Maybe that was "the" dip. Look at the calandar ahead:

     

    Tomorrow PCE data; maybe will reassure those hysterical about inflation,

     

    Then "quarter end markup";

     

    Then "new quarter money" floods in......

     

    Must Buy!
    25 Jun, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I'm watching and waiting .. :)
    25 Jun, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Why wait? That was THE dip my friend.
    25 Jun, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I'm already Long here , so I am waiting for specific stocks to drop into buy zones..

     

    I.E. (AAP) which i already own, down 2.5% today after making a new high .. (no news) - a little more weakness.. and I may add..
    25 Jun, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1iG8kS5

     

    any comment on this chart ---
    25 Jun, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    I've seen the "buffet indicator " before-- if one wants to make a 'bear case ' from that - have at it ..

     

    It has been signalling overvaluation for a while..
    after all combine that with the shiller PE cape ratio which has also told us that we are in bubble territory and you have the makings of "being left out"

     

    I'd rather look at $120 in S & P earnings and a PE of 17 to from an opinion of where we are and overall value ..
    25 Jun, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    FG;

     

    So you give market cap / Gdp no credence?

     

    Never mind the "left out" crowd ect. Wondering your specific thoughts on valuation.

     

    Curious why not. Unlike the shiller PE -- it would seem to be a "real time" indicator.
    25 Jun, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Those charts demonstrate the relevance of the discount rate at the time. So, relatively, market values in 2000 and 2007, when the prime rates were 9% and 7.75%, respectively, are different than now, when the prime rate is 3.25%.
    25 Jun, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    my thoughts on valuation start with the corp earnings picture..

     

    and @ $120 in earnings we are fairly valued here ..
    25 Jun, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Interesting observation about volume in the market & options trading yesterday on CNBC's program with Melissa Lee. Apparently many mutual funds, large buyers (like hedge funds) are using options to make their stock purchases & stock divestments. This allows buyers/sellers to set their price, then wait for the market to get there. Nice idea, you could also use a long term limit order IMO.

     

    Low volume has led many to believe the market is not relevant because so many investors are not participating.

     

    Not true....due to options trading volume, which is higher than ever.

     

    However when the market goes south, you do see a huge increase in volume (DOW, Nasdaq, S&P). We just haven't seen a really big correction in such a long time.
    25 Jun, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    The big difference between options and limit orders is that with options you get paid to wait.

     

    Aside from occasional volume spikes on option expiration days, we haven't seen any notable volume action in eons. And, notice how over the last couple years that each and every time the market even sniffs at trying to get downward momentum, spurred by news of one sort or another, that it can't get any traction. This is because there's still far too much money out of the equity market versus what's in the market, so dips bring in various buyers, who realize they waited far too long for a pullback. And, with low overall volumes, it doesn't take much buying to support shares.

     

    And, because of the persistent nervousness with which this market rally has been treated, almost from the get-go, the investors, who are in equities, tend to be those with higher convictions than those still watching and waiting, so they're less inclined to get spooked on headline news. This, too, militates against cascading market drops.
    25 Jun, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    "nervousness which with the rally has been treated"

     

    This why what's rallying lately are the worst crap amd money losing companies, which the blue chips are ignored?
    25 Jun, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    One of the problems is that your perceptions don't align with data:

     

    YTD:

     

    SPX 6.4%
    NASDAQ 5.0%

     

    So, all those "high fliers" you are talking about are still underperforming that general market, and even that's hardly on fire.
    25 Jun, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    So -- you will be investing the "uber" car sharing IPO when it comes out with a (current) 19B valuation?

     

    How about Air B&B?

     

    Lots of risk adversion in those valuations, to name 2.
    25 Jun, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Thanks T, good explanation.

     

    It is sad how many are sitting in cash. My brother is one. I've talked to him about getting into some good dividend payers, like (PTY) (PCN) (PSEC) etc. Hopefully he will. He does have some $ in mutual funds, but is overweight in cash. And gold. Yup he bought gold. Paid too much for it - another sad thing.

     

    He's getting close to 65, 2 more years to go.

     

    My husband tells me not to harp on how well I'm doing with my gains; as it might depress him.

     

    I try to talk to him every week & encourage him. He says nobody could pick stocks back in the 1970s, hold them, and end up with millions. He thinks stocks long term holders could choose the wrong stocks....which they could, but when you get good at analyzing stocks, it does make it easier to pick the winners.

     

    Stock picking is not that easy, or we'd all be zillionaires. However, focusing on dividend growth stocks does make the job easier. Blue chip stocks, that have paid dividends for 25 years or more, is a good place to start. Then buy & monitor....when the dividend gets frozen or cut, that's a good indicator that the company is having problems.

     

    For growth, & to keep things interesting, I like (CELG) (GILD) (FB) (PCLN) (GOOG)s (SCTY) (TSLA) (ICPT)

     

    Stocks like (BUD) (STZ) (DNKN) (FL) (M) (MCK) are doing well. Finally people are eating donuts again.

     

    (MCD) has made a lot of changes. Just took a road trip & stopped at a McDonalds. Thrilled that they had wifi & a refurbished interior. The wrap I had was good. Must have been about 15 people there, at 10:30 am. Not too bad.
    25 Jun, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    What precisely do a few goofball IPO's have to do with the general state of the world? Is that your sell signal, that somebody wants to speculate in Uber or some wild-guess biotech?

     

    Might as well use one of those floating eight-balls.
    25 Jun, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    It indicates a lot.

     

    When there are a whole legion of stocks once again trading at price per click or price to sales, -- since they have and many have never had GAPP earnings -- exactly how does this jive with your views of the investment landscape as totally risk adverse?
    25 Jun, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    BSF;

     

    What is your data that "so many" are sitting in cash?
    25 Jun, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9319) | Send Message
     
    The Magic 8 ball says
    "It is decidedly so"
    25 Jun, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Because there are always a few crazies. Do you realize that the NASDAQ P/E was 100 in 2000? It's 22.5 now.
    25 Jun, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    You, yourself, just cited the amount in cash deposits just a few posts ago! Besides that, you have the huge hoards in Treasuries and a still adamant set of gold mongers.

     

    This is even in question?
    25 Jun, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,
    Just off the top of my head (AAP) (LAZ) ,(MU) all hit new highs -- in the last few days
    in addition to a lot of oil names that are at all time highs - (CXO),(WLL) PXD)

     

    would hardly classify them as "crap" , and they are hardly losing money -- all have great earnings..
    25 Jun, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    TTM PE on the Russell 2K is 78
    25 Jun, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Many times some have noted that a lot of investors are scared to put $ in the stock market....some are over weight in bonds too

     

    http://nyti.ms/1rzuSE7
    25 Jun, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    do you have data that suggests otherwise?

     

    I have almost $300,000 in cash.

     

    Just in case.
    25 Jun, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    I dismiss this "survey".

     

    According to Sentimenttrader.com Data which is widely respected; Both Mutual fund cash as a % of total assets, and retail money market funds as a % of total NYSE market Cap, have both never been lower.

     

    Margin balances have essentially never been higher on both NYSE and Nasdaq.
    25 Jun, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    The TTM P/E on the Russell 2000, as of 6/20/14, was 85.47 as calculated by Birinyi Associates and based on GAAP as reported earnings.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/sXXWWp

     

    The last H.6 Money Stock Measure shows $7.323 trillion sitting in savings accounts alone as of 6/9/14, with another $633.9B in retail money market funds and $1.7343 trillion in institutional money market funds.

     

    Table 4:
    http://1.usa.gov/zDWhDb

     

    Huge sums are in treasury bills maturing in 3 and 6 months producing negative real rates of return with current yields of .03% and .05% respectively:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/oLC2C9

     

    Z.1 Fed Release as of 6/5/14 (third item from the top):

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1sFIceu
    25 Jun, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    there will always be interest in the 'get rich quick " mentality of the IPO market. as long as there is a stock market that type of gambling mentality will be here. its a tiny segment of the overall marketplace

     

    However I'd rather look at what really is going on :

     

    In addition to the names I mentioned at new highs
    The "old tech guard" has performed well of late with (INTC) breaking out of a 8 yr basing pattern , it is that type of move that is the proxy for what is transpiring in the markets, and not the fever over an overhyped IPO
    25 Jun, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Anyone watching world cup soccer?

     

    Germany vs. USA tomorrow.
    25 Jun, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    BlueSky: I will be watching Vanderbilt playing for college baseball's national championship tonight against Virginia. Vanderbilt has never been this close to a national championship in any sport.

     

    I am excluding women's bowling from that statement.

     

    When woman's bowling was started as a collegiate "sport", Vanderbilt basically bought the national title by offering full scholarships to the best high school bowlers. Even then, Vandy only managed to win the national title once in 2007, a couple of years after competition started, beating some school by the name of Maryland Eastern Shore, one of its few competitors.
    25 Jun, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Blue ,

     

    in a word yes..

     

    I have slowly become addicted to the world cup ..
    25 Jun, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9319) | Send Message
     
    Go Hoos!!
    25 Jun, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    If anyone is paying attention to commodities; I would recommend looking at charts of gold, silver, copper, coffee, Oil, ect. The market is saying inflation is on the way back.
    25 Jun, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:
    You may recall that just a short while back you were arguing to me that rates were going a lot lower, while I said that rates had reset to their trend line, before last May's tapering hysteria, and would resume a slow, gradual march higher. The inflation you sense is a sign of more demand, not a weakening economy, and, sure enough commodities are moving higher, exactly in line with those expectations.

     

    You will note that I had been offering for some months that investors should consider commodities, energy and emerging markets, all of which benefit from these trends. Inflation just tells one where to allocate funds, not that anything horrible is about to befall the markets.
    25 Jun, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    Again you are misconstruing what I said.

     

    I said LONG RATES ONLY will go a LOT lower.

     

    THAT MEANS THE 30 year rates ONLY.

     

    THAT MEANS A FLATTENING YIELD CURVE -- which is what is happening.
    25 Jun, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Investors are primarily risk adverse. We must live on different planets Tack. Note the Covenant Lite loans issuance.
    25 Jun, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Yes, we do. You live on the one that's frustrated that the market isn't behaving, as you believe it should, and I live on the one where corporate results, liquidity and overall market sentiment result in the the pattern we have been observing for many months.

     

    Until something in the combination of indicators is altered in a material way, we won't see much change, and, likely, you will continue to think everyone who's invested is crazy.
    25 Jun, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    yet another cautious article from Bret Jensen - a long time bull

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I believe many are playing defense now , protecting the downside, this article suggest he has joined that crowd..

     

    while i'm not throwing caution to the wind -- this type of behavior suggest a slow melt up in the averages may be in store... as everyone sits , watches and waits for a pullback..

     

    selectivity is the name of the game ...... 15- 20% on tap for those that can pull out the winners ...
    25 Jun, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    ......"I think everyone is invested is crazy".

     

    I don't believe I said anything remotely like that. Please quote directly where I said that exact phrase.

     

    Otherwise discontinue putting words in other posters mouths they did not say.

     

    I will say this and you can quote me on it: investors currently piling into high yield investments at any price and without covenant protections, --- and from the numbers it appears there is a whole lot of them --- if they do not study history, will be severely burned from repeating it. You can count on it, likely sooner than later. AND --- these kind of investments are all HIGHLY correlated in any decline.

     

    Quote me on THAT phrase, Tack.
    25 Jun, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    You are assuming far too much. First, Bret is invested long and slowly raising cash and selling calls, it sounds like.

     

    Second, (it seems) you are using the publication of ANY cautious article, no matter how respected the source, and regardless of 10 other bullish articles each with tons of bull comments -- I read the comments and get a sense of the sentiment out there -- as some kind of automatic "contrary" indicator that "lots" of people are defensive.

     

    I'd be careful extrapolating -- that's all.

     

    Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman are (again) being openly ridiculed -- I've read it several times -- as washed up and not with the times -- for their caution and lack of aggression here.

     

    Are they contrary indicators too?

     

    History is repeating itself.

     

    In my humble opinion --- EVERYONE -- individual and corporate -- is piled up to their necks in the same correlated trade -- and that's based on or directly in high yield corporate debt (impacting dividends and Buybacks) -- and that in turn is dependent on permanent subdued inflation, so the 2 and 5 year interest rates don't move.

     

    I say there is considerable risk in that one trade.

     

    People can debate all they want about all the so-called cash on the sidelines. I'm not buying it.
    25 Jun, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    i'll just go back to my original point

     

    bottomline---- all other facts, data, charts, pundits, money managers, financial icons, et al can be rolled out to show whatever picture one wants to paint ..

     

    For me -----

     

    i'll stay with $120 in S & P earnings with a multiple of 17 .... and I am positioned accordingly ..

     

    all else is BS, noise and very debatable..

     

    good luck ...
    25 Jun, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "...regardless of 10 other bullish articles each with tons of bull comments..."

     

    OK, here's your simple challenge:

     

    Provide the links to ten current genuinely bullish articles on SA. Seriously, I'd like to read them.
    25 Jun, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    Still waiting, Macro.....
    26 Jun, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,
    "The market is saying inflation is on the way back."

     

    lets also factor in the knee jerk reaction of the markets caused by external events

     

    oil, gold & silver have been affected by the geopoltical scene

     

    coffee has been impacted by weather and the "coffee rust '
    disease.

     

    are these events permanent.. ?

     

    inflation is a concern , for sure - but maybe this is what yellen meant about 'noise" in the numbers
    25 Jun, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    Another quiet day. Any new ideas or topics of discussion?
    26 Jun, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    A perfect day to pick up shares of (LAZ) -- after making a new high in the past few days - shares dropped over 3% on this mornings selloff, to under $50 , no fundamental change in company - late aft rebound back to $50.28 -

     

    this is the type of action I have been referring to ..

     

    showing strength today was (LVS) up the entire day

     

    make a wish list and wait for opportunity in select names

     

    look to play as intermediate trades and pick up 10-15% ....
    or keep for LT holdings ..

     

    keep an eye on (MU)- if it drops in to the 31 area , it is worthy of a look,, the story here is far from over..

     

    & see if the oils 'come in " after their run (CXO) (WLL) (PXD) my favs ,, don't chase

     

    not for everyone -- as it is speculative --- i took a position in (NPSP) (32) today on the initial selloff this morning -- possible candidate for takeover in the pharma space.. however i like regardless of takeover speculation,, huge earnings potential.. chart is very constructive for a move to 40

     

    best of luck to all

     

    :)
    26 Jun, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    There are two notable developments within the past 24 hours.

     

    First and foremost, Vanderbilt won its first national title last night, beating Virginia 3-2, which has about the same surprise factor as sending a manned space flight to Mars and finding that there really are little green people living in those canals. We are not alone after all.

     

    Second, BDCs bucked the downtrend today as the Russell 2000 rebalancing approaches which will result in those companies being jettisoned from that index. The reconstitution will be final after the close on June 27th:

     

    http://bit.ly/1klwq2h

     

    TICC and ARCC were notable for gaining +2.1% and 2.04% respectively today. AINV has been moving up even after going ex dividend on 6/18. I own those BDCs. Others that I own rose modestly today including FSC, PSEC and NMFC.

     

    As everyone here knows already, I view these securities with some disfavor for a variety of reasons, but that does not stop me from having a relatively low allocation in this sector, and from moving in and out of my positions using a variety of set criteria hopefully designed to realize gains on the shares after collecting a year or more of dividends.

     

    Long term holders in many of them, particularly the BDCs that are externally managed, would not be able to make the same statement unless they happened to buy their positions during the major cratering process in 2008-2009.

     

    PSEC Long Term Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/RrOYDy;range=my

     

    AINV Long term Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/RrOY6p

     

    TICC Long Term Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/TCxR2O

     

    ARCC Long Term Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/11oB60P
    26 Jun, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    A look at the ever present debate on "market volume"

     

    http://bv.ms/1m4V4aj
    27 Jun, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    He sums it up pretty well.
    27 Jun, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    F&G

     

    A while back you were bullish on BBBY. The latest plunge in Bed Bath & Beyond continues its downward path. The home furnishing store disappointed Wall Street yet again. The stock dropped more than 7% on Thursday. Here's the thing: They actually reaffirmed their full-year earnings.

     

    What is going on in your opinion and are u still bullish?

     

    Thanks
    27 Jun, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Astarr,

     

    The three consecutive quarters of disappointments is starting to get to me.. as they are surely testing my patience..

     

    You are correct, even though they dropped the guidance for the next quarter to the low end of the range - they did reaffirm their full year earnings number.. which should be in the $5 range ....

     

    Going forward, They are making investments in technology, pricing and couponing will continue to pressure margins in the near term.

     

    I'm in at $65 and have written calls against a portion of that , which has softened the blow.. Nonetheless its a decent loss..
    So i had to decide to cut and run ,take my loss or hang on...
    If it wasn't for the support it found at the $55 level I would have pulled the plug yesterday.
    That support level also held back in late 2012..

     

    Encouraged that it got a little bounce today - as its totally oversold..

     

    I do think they have some positives going for them but one has to realize it wil be an uphill road now that will take some time..
    so for the moment i am hanging on and will reassess as news develops.
    27 Jun, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    Thanks for the response. I think the perceived housing slowdown has been one of the key catalyst for the stock's retreat.
    27 Jun, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    astarr.

     

    also the analysts are not so "forgiving" to the BBBY management team, as they offer no Q & A on their conf. calls when they release , earnings and guidance.. its a cut & dried announcement. ..

     

    Not offering that as an excuse -- just noting it as fact..

     

    but the bottom line -- BBBY has to show the street that this can & will be turned around..
    27 Jun, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    - From a timing and valuation standpoint, it makes sense, all things being equal, to be cautious on equities at this juncture -- at least the overinflated ones.
     
    Things are not equal however.
     
    I recently have read how a number of central banks like China's are openly buying stocks, but without disclosure rules. Search it.

     

    Therefore I must assume, without contrary proof, the Fed's tapering is a complete sham and they are buying stocks as well -- through perhaps other country's accounts.
     
    If one chooses to dispute this -- don't unless you can definitively prove what the Fed is doing and assets it holds.
     
    Doesn't this make sense -- when one considers the market action? That there is no reaction to the taper?

     

    There is NO taper. This is Fed propaganda.
     
    As Americans -- doesn't it bother you your government is burning your currency, printing money to benefit the few? I don't believe there is supposed to be a government mandate to invest in twitter shares.
     
    Perhaps I'm off base. If so -- comment IF you have PROOF this is NOT occurring.

     

    But if not -- obviously I'm the fool to believe we still have any seblance of free markets.

     

    I am short (Z) for example -- who's stock has tripled in a year as profit estimates have dropped 70%. Heavy insider sales. When asked about his stock price and valuation on CNBC, the CEO commented "there are alway haters".

     

    Ok. Is the Fed buying Zillow stock?

     

    You all say -- get real. Ridiculous. Give your head a shake Macro. But think about it. Just a small jump from QE. No bear markets, ever. Just print the money. No consequences.

     

    Read the SA article on central bank purchases.
    28 Jun, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "Therefore I must assume, without contrary proof, the Fed's tapering is a complete sham and they are buying stocks as well -- through perhaps other country's accounts."

     

    Now, you are unequivocally transitioning to be a conspiracy nut, as this statement offers not a single shred of evidence, but demands that someone else prove the negative, that you don't believe. Even if we were to accept your absurd claim, how would you suggest they "prove" that they're not doing it?

     

    Are things so confounding for you that there's nothing left but wild accusations?
    28 Jun, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    All that matters.
    28 Jun, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    http://ti.me/ZdHd1F

     

    Tack nice you call people names who don't agree with you. Is your intellect so feeble you do not wish to debate the issues rationally?

     

    Article is from last year. I think its safe to say this is fact. Are you disputing Time and Bloomberg?
    28 Jun, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Your completely unsubstantiated claim about U.S. markets was rational?

     

    I think your own words speak well enough. I'll leave it at that.
    28 Jun, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Tack, you ridicule billionaire investors like Wilbur Ross, Klarman, Jim Rogers, as losers because they are wary of the Fed's policies.

     

    Isn't this hilarious? As long as you capture a couple more points of yield you must be smarter than them.

     

    http://cnb.cx/1pBtyDJ
    28 Jun, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    Read this letter from Klarman.

     

    Maybe you will learn something.

     

    http://bv.ms/1eR5Fk8
    28 Jun, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I don't recall that I've ridiculed any of the folks you've mentioned. I was just questioning your own inflammatory accusations.

     

    I'm independent and have made for years and am making good money. It seems that you are frustrated and accusatory because markets aren't behaving the way you want or expect them to behave. The Fed stock-buying conspiracy angle is a new wrinkle, apparently, that seems to demonstrate your exasperation.

     

    Perhaps, you need to do some reassessment, not those performing quite up to their expectations.
    28 Jun, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    M, I want to thank you for being one of the few that continues to advise caution in this market.

     

    It is very wise to proceed with care right now. If the earnings start to roll in lower than expected, with guidance for the future bad too, this will cause a correction.

     

    Then there is the problem with unwinding QE & getting back to "normal" interest rates....which may take years.

     

    If we are lucky, the economy will slowly get better, earnings will also keep up & we will avoid another market collapse.

     

    There are many people in this world who have never tasted Coke, used a cell phone, posted on the internet, had a Dunkin Donut....and so I have hopes that many of the stocks I own will keep making money as their markets expand around the planet.

     

    Always good to keep a wary eye on the future.

     

    All my dividends are paid in cash. Just in case : )
    28 Jun, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - M

     

    Being wary of the effectiveness of and consequences of a policy by those investors... isn't them saying the Fed is buying stock through secret programs.

     

    Meanwhile, the article you link to gives the excuse that permeated last year. I forgot about it! The old, bad news is good news because now the Fed will hold off on perspective rate hikes. ...jeepers I forgot all about that one. Explains a lot of movements. It's been hard to believe, but caused the surprise ups when they didn't make sense... and then earnings continued and eventually caught up to the prices somewhat.

     

    Instead, the investors are quoted as looking for the next bubble and saying:

     

    ""I've felt for some time that the ultimate bubble, when we look back a few years from now, is going to be sovereign debt, both U.S. and other, because it's way below any sort of reversion to the mean of interest rates," he told CNBC on Monday. "

     

    I don't know what that means exactly (what's sovereign debt refer to?). But if there is a bubble forming from liquidity, the key will be how well timed tightening will be. There aren't signs of the resulting problems yet. It's too early to act on the worries. If the worries turn to realities, there will be signs along the way. Same as last time. Not just possibllities to look for, but developed signs...
    28 Jun, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I would agree that yields on sovereign debt are abnormally low worldwide, including debt issued by the U.S., Germany, and other European countries. Investors may very well look back in a "few year from now" and come to a unanimous conclusion that those yields are now in BubbleLand. Central banks may easily end up fostering more inflation than they want. I would simply note that the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index has increased from .8% in February Y-O-Y to 1.8%, as I earlier predicted here, in May.

     

    PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS, MAY 2014
    http://1.usa.gov/qTFsOo

     

    Ten Year Note Yields as of Last Friday's Close:

     

    Spain 10 Year Government Bond: 2.63%
    http://on.mktw.net/1pd...

     

    Germany: 1.25%
    http://on.mktw.net/1nl...

     

    France: 1.59%
    http://on.mktw.net/1nl...

     

    United States: 2.53%
    Netherlands: 1.49%
    Finland: 1.49%
    Belgium: 1.71%
    Italy: 2.72%

     

    http://on.wsj.com/14rxic3

     

    Long Term Chart Germany 10 Year:
    http://bit.ly/1nlVXrN

     

    Long Term Chart U.S. Ten Year:
    http://bit.ly/WGQM6i

     

    Long Term Chart France Ten Year:
    http://bit.ly/1nlVXbx
    29 Jun, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L, all,

     

    "It's too early to act on the worries. If the worries turn to realities, there will be signs along the way."

     

    That says it all,

     

    IF, and I emphasize IF one believes the "bubble " scenario,

     

    1 --- it can last far longer than anyone imagines and will outlast the players that continually go against it.

     

    2 --- The most prominent sign will be a breakdown in the technicals and a noticeable and ACTIONABLE downtrend will be in place.. It is then, that money will be made going with THAT downtrend. It wont be made trying to short at every bump up in prices --proclaiming that we have reached a TOP.. --- Price action rules..

     

    I don't believe markets are frothy. $120 in S & p earnings with a PE of 17 --- tells me otherwise..

     

    As far as listening to any billionaires or money managers,, they have more agendas, strategies,etc to make their fortunes than anyone here on SA could ever comprehend . Following every word from them as it is "gospel" is silly ..

     

    I find it amusing when any of these "guru's say that "danger lies ahead ".

     

    Of course danger lies ahead - it always has and always will be that way... this is inherent in equity investing.. tell us something we don't now --

     

    but does that mean the market drops and in 2 days all gains are wiped out -- lets get real here..

     

    At some point they will all tell us "I told you so " but at what level on the S & P .. ??? no one can tell us that .. period..
    Listening to "danger lies ahead" started at S & P 1550 --------

     

    Following the price action and trend has worked much better - for now I will position my portfolio that way ---

     

    here is a link to my latest update -- if you read nothing else there, look at the headline SA articles I highlighted http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and then tell me everyone is in a euphoric stage and we are all "bubbly" ... Utter nonsense....

     

    For every stock the naysayers want to mention that is bubbly --

     

    I 'll give them three that given div. reinvesting will make them a fortune over time......
    29 Jun, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    BSF,

     

    On another point all these people who have never done these things -- you would be better off buying Turkcell or (MBT), or that country's ETF.

     

    Why should these countries even allow an American multinational in their countries? There is not fair reciprocation, IMO.

     

    Why should American companies be allowed to set up shop in Ireland and pay no tax? Sure, let's hammer the middle class with individual taxes some more -- so corporations can use tax loopholes.

     

    I predict a much harder line will be taken on these issues in the future.
    29 Jun, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,
    AND IF ONE does believes ---

     

    it means exactly what to the earnings, balance sheet and PE of (CVX) , or the countless other symbols I could type here ..

     

    answer -------- nothing ...
    28 Jun, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    Btw self made billionaires are not "pundits".

     

    It'd be wise to listen to what several of them -- are saying.
    28 Jun, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    I do,

     

    Klarman has a big position in (MU) and so do i,

     

    Icahn has big positions on (AAPL)(EBAY) & (RIG) and so do I
    28 Jun, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Of course "the markets" are rigged. The big investors, hedge funds, mutual funds, Goldman Sachs types, billionaires....all of them benefit from information that I will never be privy too. Insider trading? Absolutely - some will always benefit because they know what Icahn etc. are doing. Maybe Icahn isn't giving out tips, but his son might be (the gambler & the golfer that recently benefited from huge gains in stocks that Icahn took positions in comes to mind).

     

    The gold market is manipulated. Big commodity traders manipulate prices....so what else is new.

     

    The only thing I can do is buy great companies, that pay a dividend, & hold them until it makes sense to sell. Which I really hate to do - sell. The dividend stream is what I'm after.

     

    If you are trading short term, then best of luck. Nothing is harder than timing the ups & downs of the market or your chosen investment day to day.

     

    I'm up about $100,000 so far this year. Those dividends make all the difference.
    28 Jun, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Oh , I get it. When I brought up the point a few months back -- that these billionaires were getting real cautious.

     

    Was told here -- they all had an "agenda". So Wilbur Ross, well into his 80's, comes on CNBC and calls sovereign debt the ultimate bubble.

     

    Must have been to stampede market and manipulate investors into dumping their stocks so he could buy them up cheap. Ummm, OK.

     

    Yeah -- sounds like Wilbur Ross.
    29 Jun, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    and acting on the wilbur ross cautionary statements back then has done exactly what for a portfolio.. ??
    29 Jun, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Again there it is. Everyone thinks they are a genius and so much smarter, and will know exactly when to exit at the right time, one microsecond ahead of the crowd.

     

    It's like the recent Barrons article I read on junk bonds. Basically it outlined how the professionals all know junk bonds are wildly overpriced, but they keep buying them in their funds, because they are still getting inflows. It's the thing to do. Total herd behaviour on the upside. Fascinating, actually.

     

    Nothing ever changes.

     

    To answer your question, I would say those acting on Klarman's or Ross's caution are becoming focused on the return of their capital, not the return on their capital at this stage. It's a refocus on risk, which is a word that has disappeared from the investment conversation completely.

     

    That should worry you.
    29 Jun, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    "Everyone thinks they are a genius and so much smarter, and will know exactly when to exit at the right time, one microsecond ahead of the crowd."

     

    my reply ---- u don't have to be a nanosecond ahead or the crowd -

     

    a complete fallacy that The Armageddon , "danger lies ahead" will swiftly take all of ones profits..

     

    go back and look at 2000 and again at 2008 -- look at the charts and tell me how many opportunities one had to head the technical breakdown... it didn't happen in a day -- much less a nanosecond..

     

    I employed the strategy I talked about on my blog over a year ago when questioned then that I would "give it all back" --

     

    It proved that it doesn't have to be that way at all..

     

    I will repeat , look at the results of those who heeded the "danger lies ahead" comments when the fed initiated QE2 ,

     

    please go back and read them -- as they were prevalent at the time.. and lok at where the S & P was then........

     

    Those folks simply wont ever to make up the difference in their lifetime --

     

    These last few years have been LIFE CHANGING for many -- both positively and negatively ...
    29 Jun, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    Seems to me the greatest risk I see is this total an unquestioning trust in the Fed's forecasts and for them to never make a policy mistake again.

     

    Looking at history I seriously question this. I'm overtly betting on a Fed mistake at this stage.
    29 Jun, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    Those that have disbelieved in the Fed policy from the inception of QE have been carried out feet first..

     

    When the FED announced QE2 - They TOLD everyone by their actions to invest in stocks.. It was the easiest call that I have seen in my lifetime in the markets .. Period

     

    To this day the FED is being questioned .. primarily by the crowd that has been left behind.. They simply WANT the fed to be wrong because THEY have been wrong since the inception of QE., Just so they can have that one moment of glory to say they were right. In the meantime -- they built their financial coffins to lie in.
    The naysayers may be in for another surprise when they find out at the end of QE that the market is still in tact..
    The markets won't correct because of the removal of QE it will correct because it has gone up exponentially since QE .. period... and no single "I told you so" from them will ever make up for the losses they incurred by sitting on their hands or betting against the Fed..

     

    I have told that story since the day I became a member of SA- and watched the "push back " on both the markets and my take on Fed policy ..
    To this day many are still disbelieving and continue to say the bullish story is the one that is wrong--
     so be it ..
    $120 in earnings and a PE of 17 .. think about it ..
    29 Jun, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I wish I'd been paying attention to my investments when Q2 to was announced!

     

    Agreed, the story has been a rise not a fall.

     

    On the other hand, it's projection / assumption that the naysayers now are motivated frustration. They were conservative and bearish to start with, and continue to be so for the same reasons as they started with.

     

    So I'd ask that on here to be cautious about saying that bears are motivated by frustration to keep being bears to prove themselves right. A lot of people aren't motivated by need to "be right" but instead have other reasons for the bear views. It's very fair to disagree with the views, and let's stick to data reasons to disagree since that's more effective anyway...

     

    On the psychological, it's probably more likely (in my observation) - when you get out, it's hard to get back in, and each new worry becomes magnified that it will be the one that wipes you out and makes you foolish for not trusting that nervousness that got you out in the first place. A little gentile looking at facts and tecnhqiues does the most to help...
    29 Jun, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I tend to tell it like it is, - however, for the sake of 'harmony" -- i 'll just let it go

     

    :)
    29 Jun, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    "A little gentile looking at facts and tecnhqiues does the most to help..."

     

    That's a new one to me! :)
    29 Jun, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7

     

    Lol, typo king strikes again. "A little gentle looking." And of course spellchecker didn't pick it up.
    29 Jun, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    FG and others,

     

    It is a far different story to justify being wildly bullish on stocks when QE 2 was announced then being bullish today.

     

    I'll remind you others being bearish since 2009, and their results, has absolutely nothing to do with my current market views today, and has absolutely no bearing on reasons or rationale for a bearish or cautious view today, anymore than me bringing up to those bullish on emerging markets today, what a failing strategy that has been for the last several years.

     

    In both cases its forecasting future results by looking at the past, which is a horrible way to allocate investment capital -- history would indicate.

     

    To simpify -- just because a group has been hiding in gold and short the market since 2009, does NOT invalidate my bearish call on overvalued sectors of the market in 2014!
    29 Jun, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    no one suggested that this is the same scenario as 2009-2010 as far as an investment landscape..

     

    Please indicate where anyone said that..

     

    You have missed my entire point ----- The rhetoric from that timeframe about "danger lying ahead" - appears to be the same .. as I compare those that warned then to those that have warned all along the way ... In my view --- we just have another round of the "danger lying ahead " crowd..

     

    No one ever argued your views on overvalued stocks like a zillow or a yelp or an IPO however it always seem that your the overvalued stock story is turns into the "entire S & P"..

     

    And there is where i would disagree- an IPO, a zilow ,or a yelp overvalued - yes ,

     

    overall market - no-- please take a look at the chart i Highlighted about the S & P sectors that just made new highs - the strength is broad -- not narrow , and not suggestive of a major top .. It does NOT suggest the market is climbing with a sector or two or some momentum stocks leading the way ...

     

    that data is totally dismissed by the danger crowd..

     

    & I go back to my past commentary - exactly what is the danger lying ahead crowd warning us about -- ??

     

    That view implies all those that have been bullish here are complete idiots as we arent aware we could get a serious correction.. and we'll all get trashed and give it all back ..

     

    In my view they aren't warning anybody , to the absolute contrary, they are making their case because they have missed the entire move higher.. And so my counter is that they have surely been wrong and are completely frustrated at the markets action as they look for any idea to make their case.

     

    It is that view that I will dispute , every chance i get..

     

    Best of luck ..
    30 Jun, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    No one's disagreeing with you that the Fed can be imperfect. Timing is the angle. Any fallout, if it will be, can be several years and gains from now. And it can not materialize.

     

    While you're pointing out worries to keep an eye on.... but the symptoms (consequences, not just possibilities) are not showing yet. With other bubbles, the symptoms showed well before the bubble burst.

     

    Have you been hanging out on IT's blog? All the worry kept throwing me off from paying attention to the market's signals. ...the worry focus there is for long term, even 20-30 years out, not nearly as much for very short term.
    29 Jun, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,
    IT's blog - is a good way to have a laugh.. it offers nothing ...

     

    as i said when I was thrown out of that "temple of doom" called a blog--

     

    they sit around reading their gold magazines - betting on the exact date that the financial world will come to an end

     

    and they epitomize the "left behind frustrated bear crowd" as they cant wait for the market to correct as they cheer a $5 move in Gold ...

     

    and to this day tell me I was wrong about the markets.. ...

     

    Go there for a laugh but take off your investment hat before u enter..
    29 Jun, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I wanted to ask M about the blog... but I'd rather on here to be respectful even of other blogs such as IT's, even if disagreed with.

     

    I have things that are useful on IT's blog. Some short term ideas have been excellent. Plus some much longer term worries could use consideration by politicians as they set policies.

     

    But the worry level, I personally found, interfered with my "noise filter." It very well may not for others who hang out in both blogs.
    29 Jun, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    typo: "I have seen things that are useful..."
    29 Jun, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    The two catastrophic declines (2000-2002 and 2008-March 2000) have traumatized a large number of individual investors.

     

    Even many young investors, who were not even invested in stocks during the recent Near Depression, are unusually cautious, fearing that next huge decline more than being left out of future long term gains.

     

    I was talking to my 24 year old nephew yesterday, who has a job as a future's trader, and he has gone 70% into cash.

     

    I am not able to predict the future with any certainty, and no one else can do it either. I can only make an informed assessment of current conditions and postulate various future scenarios, weighting the probabilities of each scenario and to plan accordingly.

     

    I also take into account the appreciation in my accounts since March of 2009, which has substantially reduced, even eliminated, any need to take risks now.

     

    Young investors, or those still in an accumulation phase, do not have that luxury, at least for any extended period of time. I am not in an accumulation phase.

     

    Cash yielding .01% or a 2.5% ten year treasuries are not long term options for building a nest egg for retirement unless you are among the fortunate few who will inherit large sums from Mom and Dad and know how to curb your spending appetites. Many investors went into cash in October 2008. Others here at SA were calling for an end to the bull run in 2011 or 2012.

     

    All of that is past now, and is not really that relevant for what each investor needs to do now given the current yield environment for fixed income investments and the rise in stocks since March 2009.

     

    I can say with 100% certainty that I am not going to buy a ten year treasury yielding 2.5%. If I had to choose between a ten year German bond yielding 1.2% or the ETF for German stocks, EWG, and had to hold whatever I chose for ten years, I would go with the stock ETF. I have been saying the same thing about stocks for several years.

     

    E.G. "Thus, if I had to make the best decision at this moment in time to invest either in a 10 year treasury or in the S & P 500 for the next ten years, I would choose the stocks." 5/13/09 Post titled "To Professor Siegel: Time for a Re-Think":

     

    http://bit.ly/18JXQLQ

     

    Given my capital preservation emphasis, I am selling long term bonds and potentially perpetual equity preferred stocks now. Many of those securities are held in IRAs which have already enjoyed excellent five year and YTD returns.

     

    As to stocks, I will place more of an emphasis on the TTM P/E based on GAAP than the consensus analyst estimates based on "operating earnings" rather than GAAP. I am generally not inclined to exclude items from GAAP earnings when making this evaluation. Oddly, those "extraordinary" expenses and losses seem to recur either every year or most every year.

     

    P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes as of 6/27/14:

     

    TTM P/E on S & P 500=19.32 GAPP "as reported"

     

    http://bit.ly/1pCGUzG

     

    The S & P 500 is at the top end of my fair value range, and that assumes a continued low interest rate environment for several more years and decent earnings growth. The Russell 2000 is over that top.

     

    Consequently, I have been paring my small cap allocation; selling stock CEFs that have underperformed; and selling or paring several individual stock positions based on my usual analysis which would be occurring irrespective of my views about the market's valuations. Once I have eliminated the stock allocation buildup since February 2014, I will then look around and decide whether to continue paring.
    29 Jun, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2925) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    You appear to be the only voice of caution here.
    29 Jun, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    Please Read here where I pointed out a potential " reversal last week in the S & P . complete with a "Picture indicating a possible corrective phase on the horizon ..

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    and then go back and view my cautionary statements..in my previous commentary ..
    30 Jun, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    From Schaeffer research :

     

    on supposed lack of "fear " in the market and market "complacency"

     

    "4.5% increase in $SPX component short interest, which is far above the '12 lows "

     

    QQQ short interest "at multi year highs , up 3% since the last report .. "

     

    That information speaks volumes .......and confirms my assertion that euphoria is imagined in the minds of many ...

     

    lets not forget the heavy short interest reported in the RUT when it tested the lows in May

     

    The RUT is now up 9% from those lows and that report..

     

    29 Jun, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    My (LINE) is 1% green. How'd that happen? Back from a short raid that was down 15% 5 months ago.

     

    JB - how's your (LNCO) doing? Better?
    30 Jun, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3582) | Send Message
     
    Surprisingly, I could sell right now and be even, including commission in/out. Almost to the penny. I'm going to continue to be a holder (not adding at this time).

     

    Not bad, considering the position was ~17% down at one point.

     

    (PSEC) is shaping up for me, too. Only down 0.5% as of today's close. Just keep sending me my dividends... ;)

     

    All the best,

     

    -JB
    30 Jun, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,
    If you haven't seen it --
    article from Bret Jensen on (LINE)

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Jul, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    Just noticed the $10 puts I sold on (PSEC) awhile back for $0.70 are now $0.05. Looks like money in the bank.

     

    And I'm sitting just under -0.5% on my total position. My BDC's in general have had a nice recovery since the 'mini-hysteria' a few months back. See through the 'noise'.
    2 Jul, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Simple, that was another 'story' that the bears had wrong ...

     

    :)
    30 Jun, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    That good management maneuver recently to swap land, to cover their DCF made all the difference, I think. Took a few weeks to really improve from there -- higher energy in general helped a lot with that.
    1 Jul, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    yes u r correct on both counts.. that monthly dist. is so nice :)

     

    Both (GILD) and (LVS) have 'broken out " today , For (GILD) a new high..

     

    they both look to have more left and can go higher..
    1 Jul, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Lots of news these days. Any of it pointing at anything? It seems both positive and negative (pointing at slower growth which isn't really negative), mix bag.
    1 Jul, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    LMH: The consensus opinion being expressed in the market is that the first quarter GDP number is an outlier and inconsistent with other more positive data points.

     

    Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending was down in May:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/qTFsOo

     

    Bob Johnson at Morningstar has a balanced assessment of the good and not so good economic numbers:

     

    http://bit.ly/1pZO4LU

     

    My regional bank basket was up about 2% this morning, slightly outperforming the 1.8% rise in KRE, and my REITs are doing well notwithstanding the slight uptick in interest rates.

     

    Valuations for American REITs, based on FFO or AFFO are near where they were in May 2013.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1qgtQPT

     

    http://bit.ly/1qgtSqL

     

    I published on Monday an update for my regional bank basket:

     

    http://bit.ly/1z5fW5z

     

    Just as a reminder, the "earnings estimates" for REITs found at Yahoo Finance and other services are not GAAP E.P.S. numbers but are based usually on either FFO or AFFO in some cases. ARCP for example reported a negative -.61 per share number for the first quarter based on GAAP, which included large merger and acquisition expenses, a negative FFO per share for the same general reasons, but had a positive AFFO number of +$.26 per share when the consensus shown at YF was for +$.29.

     

    The earnings estimates for other companies are not GAAP numbers either. The BDC estimates are generally reported as net operating income per share. The forecasts for other companies are generally "operating earnings" which excludes items viewed by some as extraordinary and non-recurring.

     

    BDCs seem to have recovered from their ejection from the Russell 2000.
    1 Jul, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    PMI's have been over "50" now for 19 months - indicating expansion. Today's ISM didn't disappoint, the latest housing numbers have surprised to the upside. All of this indicating a moderate pace of growth.

     

    as far as price action - all of the major indices are at fresh highs, the 'reversal" day I mentioned in my weekly update - may be negated by today's price action if the S & p holds these gains into the close.. again an indication that these 'short term" signals have little or no meaning for the LT investor..
    do we need a pause -- of course.. but that would be in the context of a secular bull market .. my message is still the same as it has been , the market will be higher down the road than it is today .
    The (RUT) which was left for dead in early May , is about to also break to a new high..

     

    participation is broad based , no single sector or group is leading and that is quite bullish..

     

    
    1 Jul, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    When the Fed first launched QE back in March 2009, I was aware that stocks experienced one of the most robust rallies ever after the FED launched a similar program in 1933.

     

    St. Louis Fed Article: "The First U.S. Quantitative Easing"
    http://bit.ly/1oBBGiR

     

    In a March 2009 blog, I mentioned this history as one reason justifying a reallocation back into stocks.

     

    I was not aware until this week that there was another prior episode. By the end of WWII, the FED had bought up all of the T Bills in an effort to peg short term rates and also bought longer term bonds in an effort to control long term rates. After WWII, inflation was running hot (+8.5% in 1946; +14.4% in 1947; and 7.7% in 1948). There was then a recession that brought inflation down to -1%.

     

    The FED's ownership of securities topped out near $24 billion in 1947, which seems quaint now. The total debt of the U.S. in 1947 was about $258B.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1rXkyWE

     

    History of Fed's Manipulation in 1940s Discussed in this Paper
    http://bit.ly/yqwPit

     

    What do you think bond rates were in 1946-1947 with inflation running hot and the Fed controlling about 10% of the available supply?

     

    Rates were in the low single digits, near where the 10 year treasury is now. See Figure 5.1 in preceding link.
    2 Jul, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    SG:

     

    That is interesting. I don't have a strong enough historical background to be familiar with that period. I also can't claim any first-hard experience with the 1970s.

     

    There are some arguments on the blogosphere and Twitter about how inflation may be tied to demographics, usually the average age of the work force of something along those lines. In fact, Matt Busigin has pointed out the average age of the workforce is turning younger for the first time since pre-70s. This would tend to imply that we are due for a bigger period of inflation. However, others have pointed out that the 1970s weren't a bad period for real GDP growth. As such I'm not sure the "stagflation" story holds up. I'd be interested to know what you all make of those points (I can provide links if needed just let me know).

     

    I'm basically okay with inflation as long as it's not bad for my investments. I also think the deflationary headwinds (structural, demographic, global, etc.) are perhaps underestimated by many and so that may continue to subdue what would otherwise be more rapid inflation domestically. As a big picture person perhaps you have a sense on how that all washes out? I recall in the past you've highlighted emerging markets as a possible source of inflation. Maybe you can expand on this sort of analysis.
    2 Jul, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12726) | Send Message
     
    BC:

     

    Just a brief comment:

     

    The 1970's were unique in inflationary causes:

     

    -- Arab Oil Embargo
    -- Nixon wage and price controls
    -- tight labor markets
    -- runway union contracts
    -- inadequate global production and supplies

     

    What makes any repeat of such seem unlikely now is that we have almost the exact reverse, i.e., lots of slack labor, rapidly increasing automation, huge surpluses of global production capacity and no constraints on energy.
    2 Jul, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    Tack:

     

    Good points. I am in general agreement, but I need to probe and see whether there are any holes in my theory.
    2 Jul, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (2525) | Send Message
     
    BC: In my opinion, potential increases in inflationary pressures are more of an issue for bonds than for stocks at the present time.

     

    I have been selling fixed coupon equity preferred stocks and longer term bonds into the bond rally, viewing the risk reward profile as tilting now more toward risk.

     

    For the most part, I have been selling securities bought after the downdraft last year, held for a few months, and netting 10% to 20% annualized total returns numbers.

     

    I am also paring leveraged bond/preferred stock CEFs that could face within the next 12 to 18 months a multitude of negative events, including a rise in their short term borrowing costs as the FED starts to increase the FF rate. Even the dovish members of the current FED are predicting a 1%+ FF rate by the end of 2015 and 2+% by the end of 2016.

     

    For me stock valuations are more of a concern currently than a rise in inflation over 2%. If there is an inflation scare later this year, that may be the excuse given for an overdue correction. Long term, stocks will benefit from tame inflation numbers hovering in the 1.5% to 2.5% range, as shown by the market's history from 1949 to 1966. Inflation was subdued during that period except for one year during the Korean War and those continuous benign inflation numbers are an underlying force consistent with a long term secular bull market. The period between 1/1/1949 and 12/31/1965 produced annualized S & P 500 real rates of return of over 14% with dividends reinvested.

     

    The problem for bonds/fixed coupon equity preferred stocks is that their current yields are without question way out of line with normal spreads to inflation as it now exists. I am referring to the latest Y-O-Y numbers for CPI at 2.1% and for the PCE price index at 1.8%. Both price indexes are rising a good percentage clip this year.

     

    The 1940s period shows how rates can be totally unhitched from the normal criteria used by the markets in setting rates, including inflation, through federal reserve intervention in the markets. A free market does not set a bond rate at 2.5% when inflation is running 10%.

     

    Stock prices are more vulnerable to a downdraft now simply due to valuations and the lack of a 10%+ correction since the 2011 summer.

     

    Abnormally low rates are supportive of current valuations for investors who use interest rates as a discounting mechanism for future earnings and dividends.

     

    There is a tipping point when rates rise high enough that many investors start to reset what they will pay for future earnings. A 5% ten year treasury yield will make stocks at their current valuations look less appealing to many, particularly those bond substitutes like REITs and electric utilities that were creamed last year when rates rose and have experienced better than market returns this year as rates have fallen.

     

    I am currently simply withdrawing the $31,000 stock allocation increase since February. And I moving my allocation around some, tilting a little more toward EM stocks and selling sector ETFs that have run up and using the proceeds to buy other ETFs that have lagged the rally but have some appeal for a variety of reasons. A recent example was selling ENY and buying EWC.

     

    2 Jul, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Broken Clock
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    SG:

     

    Thanks for the analysis. I have reduced my REIT exposure. I'm generally more of a stock/growth investor than an income investor. This last half year has forced me to expand my horizons and I have found the dividends rather addicting, but I'm not going to be greedy.

     

    I have lightened up in the last few days and moved to a more neutral position. I'm expecting a really good jobs report so that may sound weird, but I know how the market has a tendency to behave strangely and can often 'sells the news' or otherwise try to confound the largest number of people. The narrative I'd expect to be furnished is "the jobs number was too good and the Fed is behind the curve and needs to raise interest rates pronto!" but really it's probably just a mix of valuations, technicals, and reasons opaque to most of us.
    2 Jul, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG, BC

     

    Thanks SG for all the analysis.

     

    BC -
    It'd be good for me if this leads to a "too hot sell off" cycle. I have more money to get in! Maybe something in the election year will be the trigger.
    3 Jul, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    South ,BC,

     

    this is info i plan on putting in my blog update later this week --

     

    "During the 12 months before a Fed tightening cycle begins — a period we could now be entering — U.S. equities have typically outperformed fixed income by a wide margin. In the last five periods leading up to Fed tightening, the S&P 500 has gained 22 percent on average in the year before the Fed began raising rates, compared to 4.2 percent or less for fixed-income assets.”

     

    http://bit.ly/1rYSP7U
    2 Jul, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Interesting - makes sense. Fixed income normally does go as high as stocks... so a stable economy would leave stocks outperforming...
    3 Jul, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    Dow breaks thru 17,000

     

    Jobs report excellent

     

    Maybe the economy really is improving

     

    Happy 4th of July to all
    3 Jul, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4540) | Send Message
     
    All,

     

    Enjoy the long holiday weekend ;)
    3 Jul, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - From the political front effecting businesses...

     

    "WSJ: Iran economy stabilizing as energy and auto companies scramble for entry:

     

    The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday reported that delegations from energy and automobile companies have been become a near-daily presence in Iran since the easing of sanctions under the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPA), with the outlet describing “global companies… fact-finding, meeting with potential Iranian partners and jockeying for position.” Iranian outlets and officials had in recent weeks heavily emphasized the erosion of the international sanctions regime in precisely those sectors, claiming that Swiss businesses and off-shore energy companies were flocking to Iran, and that foreign shipping and auto exports were both booming. The Journal subsequently reported on Wednesday that Iran has managed to stabilize its economy, conveying figures from Iranian officials describing ‘significant progress’ in taming inflation and laying the groundwork for growth. Those figures are in line with a series of reports published by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stretching back to January, showing that the Iranian economy was recovering from contractions triggered by past international pressure."
    3 Jul, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3513) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ---> A new chapter -- #31 is here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Jul, 01:35 PM Reply Like
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