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Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #31 196 comments
    Jul 3, 2014 1:30 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #30. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #29: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/3005633-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-30?v=1404317497 (I've been putting in the right links, but sometimes this doesn't seem to work correctly. You can always go to my profile, then to my instablogs, and find the latest.)

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!. Several have their own instablogs with their ideas outlined well!

    Disclosure: The author is long SPY, IWM, DIA, QQQ, LINE, CVX.

    Additional disclosure: ...and more... ask me if you're curious!

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (196)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    A new blog for independence day. Congrats to those with financial independence from their investments & careers! ...hopefully the rest of us will follow you soon.

     

    Any explosive topics on the horizon?
    3 Jul 2014, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Welcome to newcomers. We've moved onto chapter 32, so please come join us!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Jul 2014, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » How does the summer lull tend to effect the markets, as people spend more time outside away from the market... but also more money vacationing and shopping?
    3 Jul 2014, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Any explosive topics on the horizon?

     

    Yes. The bears will, slowly but surely join the bull camp and people will realize that the current bull market is a BIG and POWERFUL one. The most hated bull market will eventually become one of the most loved bull. Fireworks ahead.

     

    The gigantic pool of cash that sits on the sidelines will push stocks higher. Anticipate a bigger volume as well.

     

    Happy Independance Day to my fellow American friends! :)

     

    Cheers!
    Krusty
    4 Jul 2014, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. Gigantic pool of cash. Can you define this further?

     

    And how exactly, when to every buyer there is a seller, does this pool "come into" the market?
    4 Jul 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Krusty!

     

    When the bears join the bulls .... time to get very defensive :). Till then .... party on!

     

    Macro
    There are so many mom & pop investors sitting on the sidelines... won't they come in at some point?
    4 Jul 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    It comes into the market by raising prices, as a reflection of changing allocation preferences. There's been the claim that QE has somehow artificially raised equity prices, but it is rarely mentioned that the accompanying reality is that even more capital has found its way into cash accounts, bonds and metals. If asset preferences change, and money starts to flow away from those other categories and toward equities, then the prices of assets under demand will rise, and the prices of those being sold will likely decline.

     

    If this paradigm were not so, then the prices of various assets would never change.
    4 Jul 2014, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    The moms and pops are irrelevant in he grand scheme of things because they control an immaterial amount of the capital.
    4 Jul 2014, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    T.

     

    Assuming a fixed amount of capital stock; exactly how would this so-called "giant amount of cash on the sidelines amount" change?
    4 Jul 2014, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    It doesn't. But, the relative pricing of all assets sure does.
    4 Jul 2014, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Don't the Mom and pop investors influence how much goes to 401ks, IRAs? Or does big investors trump that completely?

     

    Who are big investors....Pensions, foreign g'vts, what else?
    4 Jul 2014, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Governments, pension funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, large private investors, etc. Even most mom and pops have their money managed somehow and aren't issuing direction. Overall, they're just insignificant.
    4 Jul 2014, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    i believe there are so many reports and such that show that the retail investor isn't in this market.

     

    take a look at the data that Guggenheim Rydex funds put forth and i mentioned on May 31'st ...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    they are in bond & money market funds..

     

    for those that wish to continue to "believe" that this data isn't real - it shows complete denial of the situation at hand..
    no one bleieves this market and they certainly dont believe this recent rally to new highs ..
    as many still SIT , wait and question .....
    4 Jul 2014, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Let's assume you are correct, for a second, and that retail is in bonds. Not sure I buy that, but anyway....

     

    Let's further assume they dump their bonds en masse, and jump into stocks.

     

    Exactly what happens to high yield bond interest rates when this happens? ( certainly the most popular trade in bonds judging by both the outright yields and spreads).

     

    Then what happens to share Buybacks funded by these low yields and resulting bond issuance?

     

    Let me guess. All this retail flow causes stock PE's to rise even further, while magically yields don't rise at all in the bulls world -- somehow.

     

    Let me tell you what I think. I think you are partially right, that the real crowded trade is in anything high yield --- not government bonds. I further think the massive retiree crowd is not only loaded with this stuff, but have designed their lifestyle to live off the interest / dividend payments.

     

    Furthermore I would submit a lot of this high-yield stuff is bought on margin, since it's cheaper than the yield. Therefore, all of this adds up to a massive trade that can't be sold, since they are living off the income.

     

    Until they are forced to, if and when there is a high- yield correction, which inflation could easily set off.

     

    Read not only Regarded Solutions excellent article on this topic, but the hundreds of practically violent comments attacking him for preaching caution in this area. RS is not exactly a bearish writer, by the way.
    4 Jul 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    How about the gigantic pool of consumer debt that offsets this supposed giant pool of cash?

     

    Doesn't exist?

     

    Check out the charts from Doug Short I believe, with student loans, credit cards, car loans.

     

    2 sides to the equation. There is not some giant pool of cash that has magically appeared without a whole heck of a lot of offsetting debt no one wishes to talk about.

     

    Do you have any concept on just how much high yield, often poor quality debt has been issued in the last couple of years? It's an ocean!
    4 Jul 2014, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    L

     

    They are certainly not on the sidelines. They are in often risky high-yield corporate debt. They are assuming the same risk as equities.
    4 Jul 2014, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    As we have done in the past , we can debate all of the signs that u believe are there for a market fall and I believe are there for a continued upswing in prices.

     

    at the end of the day we wont agree..

     

    here is the bottom line ------ a point that is indisputable

     

    the "price action" has told a story that simply can't be denied .. and for the present, that price action remains positive ..
    if one wishes to go against that OR try to select THE time that this action will come to an end - i wish them the best of luck as in my view they are simply in denial..

     

    the naysayers can continue their disbelief even after all of the evidence that I and others have put forth as to why equities have and will continue to go higher.. .. the price action and market results have now supported those facts.. yet its not enough .....
    they believe it's all a mirage - the fed, the new highs, everything -- however it is their distorted notions that are the mirage .. everything they have maintained would come to pass hasnt materialized at all..

     

    exactly what more does one with a bullish view have to do at this point to prove THE case ?? - when do the bulls have to stop defending the fact that they were right ??

     

    For me that begins now - as I have reached a point in time here on SA that suggests some simple facts..
    -- I've put forth enough evidence and results to make a case for a higher equity market -- if one wishes to follow that , so be it ,
    if not -- best of luck to them ....
    4 Jul 2014, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Much easier to comment on how the naysayers have been forever wrong than have a discussion about high yield debt levels.

     

    Yes the price action is the final verdict, but one could have said that at many other times where the foundation was less than sound.
    4 Jul 2014, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Go back and examine previous periods when rates rose, if you think that equity prices go in the reverse direction.
    4 Jul 2014, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    Giant pool of consumer debt? You are ignoring that private-debt servicing costs are at their lowest levels in 30 years?

     

    The fixed-rate debt doesn't become less serviceable, even if rates rise. The question of investment preferences is entirely different than the diversion you are now suggesting, i.e., that debt suddenly defaults if rates increase.
    4 Jul 2014, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    foundation less than sound ??

     

    I heard that at S & P 1600 , another excuse ..

     

    good luck with that premise
    4 Jul 2014, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Whats that? You are calling the amount of consumer debt the lowest in 30 years? I don't think so.

     

    The ratio you refer to is only due to abnormal consumer interest rates, ie it's a useless statistic.
    4 Jul 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    What do you think is more important to consumer cash flows, the amount of debt or the cost to service that debt?

     

    Yes, useless. Just ask the all the folks paying historically low rates for their borrowing how useless that is.

     

    Here's reality: http://bit.ly/ScY7Qo
    4 Jul 2014, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    Happy 4th!
    4 Jul 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Happy independence day Astarr66. And everyone!

     

    A66 - did you enjoy the soccer games close up? Any interesting news (or fun adventures) from Brazil?
    4 Jul 2014, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    LOMH,

     

    Brazil was exhuasting, exhilirating, a global party. Went to 4 matches, did not get mugged, and spent over $6K, but what the heck, it was a blast. Now, back to work!

     

    I am thinking Brazil stocks might tank some if Brazil does not win it all, so I have my short list ready for additional buys, thanks to Tack!

     

    Long commodities, energy, select Brazil, and ETFs Russia. Inflation is picking up.......
    5 Jul 2014, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    Thought this article was interesting. There were only 3 years since 1950 that ended lower after both May and June were higher. I didn't go back that far, but the 2 years since 1980 that ended lower were 1986 and 1987.

     

    http://bit.ly/1t75fiu
    4 Jul 2014, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    DD,
    the last comment in the article says it all

     

    " We are in a bull market. The price action is strong and trying to pick a top is a fool’s game. This study only confirms that we could see some decent gains the rest of ’14."

     

    I'll simply add what I have been saying throughout - this is a secular bull market - stocks will be higher down the road than they are today ..
    4 Jul 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    It;s important to add that price action has been positive not just because of some unfounded "irrational exuberance." it's been supported by the economic data being received and by the underlying situation with liquidity and capital-asset allocations. The entire notion that markets are somehow wildly overvalued is incorrect on its face.
    4 Jul 2014, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    agreed, the entire "bear" argument is flawed, and has been from the beginning , but the more they attempt to 'sell it ' the stronger the bull case becomes ..

     

    yet the bulls are the folks that have to prove their case - day after day , new high after new high -

     

    it laughable.. and as far as I'm concerned its also "case closed" --
    4 Jul 2014, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    There is no "case closed". Why EAXCTLY is the Fed continuing 35 B per month in QE when we are producing 300k jobs?

     

    Where is the crisis that requires QE at all?

     

    I'll say it again. There will be major tears for all who are piled, irrationally, exuberant into the "high yield" trade -- never mind the crap I'm short with no earnings.

     

    To call a market with stocks without earnings at the (non) valuations they are is beyond ridiculous.

     

    How high exactly will CPI go and the Fed calls it " noise"?

     

    Anyone who listens to the Fed's forecasts at face value deserves to lose their money. Read history.
    4 Jul 2014, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    If you can't even make money, right now, in your overvalued mo-mo shorts, you might want to lighten up on the lecturing to those who have understood and invested in this market with success. Even if they're overvalued and could be shorted at some juncture, that has virtually no bearing on the overall market, but you want to continue to insist otherwise. One would think you might reassess by now, but, no.

     

    The continuing, but being wound down, QE is utterly meaningless. Meaningless to equities, to the economy and to rates. It's just an adjustment to a surplus number for excess reserves and has no bearing whatsoever to the real world of circulating capital. The rate market, stock market and economy keep telling anyone willing to see that this is the case, but those, who insist on the "phony" nature of everything keep hanging their hat on QE and keep getting hammered, as they should.

     

    You keep attacking, criticizing, changing the subject, etc, but your views aren't being vindicated by the market, even if you think you're smarter than the market. And, like so many on the wrong side of the trade, you imagine that those who have had it figured out more accurately will suffer "tears" as they sit idly by, watching all their gains evaporate. Not so. Besides, who do you think will have an easier time managing a down market, someone who's up 200-300% or someone who's been on the wrong side of the rally?
    4 Jul 2014, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Krustyman
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Macrotrader100:

     

    In which asset class are you invested in?

     

    Krusty
    4 Jul 2014, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac,
    your commentary ;
    "I'll say it again. There will be major tears for all who are piled, irrationally, exuberant into the "high yield" trade -- never mind the crap I'm short with no earnings."

     

    & I'll say it again --

     

    this is a secular bull market and stocks will be higher down the road than they are today .

     

    and once again - I'll call it "case closed" for those that are in denial and to date have tossed aside a MAJOR financial opportunity as they sat, watched, made excuses for not investing. And those that have committed financial suicide by shorting the equity market using every "lame" excuse from the fed to earnings quality to Low volume & a Low VIX among a list of as their backdrop for market disaster.

     

    Im still waiting for the response from the doubters to this scenario and how it plays into the case for "pain for the bulls.. "
    $120 in S & P earnings with a PE of 17
    Oh & BTW it may now be $125 ,,
    the nightmare for the non believers just got worse....
    Of course the naysaying crowd will come back to tell everyone how the bulls were wrong when the market corrects..
    my response -- "case closed" 
    5 Jul 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Although the stock market is doing great, not all companies are worth buying or holding - which is always the case. If a company is overvalued, it could be dangerous to buy it. Take for example (TSLA). The value is based on the future, not current state of this company. If the Giga factory(s) are not built, or aren't profitable, (TSLA) will crash & burn. It is risky to own this stock. If you were fortunate & bought it cheap, I would absolutely sell most of it. OTOH, it may be wise to own a few shares because Elon Musk is a force to be reckoned with. This is why I continue to hold (TSLA) but it's certainly not a large position in my portfolio.

     

    I like the blue ribbon, dividend growth companies the best to hold long term. However, some of them are at a high PE ratio, and could be over valued. So you must be careful if you are buying stocks....best to look for value, then invest. Let's take (DE), currently at a PE ratio of 10. Earnings this year don't look overly rosy. Long term, this is the type of company I like to own. I've got a position in (DE) but will only add to it if the stock falls. If you are looking to establish a position, buy in slowly over time, taking advantage of market dips.

     

    Another stock to check out is (BUD). Current PE ratio is 13.8 but when you check the earnings (on CNBC.com) forward 12 month PE is 21.3. Earnings look solid, 17.5% increase in the next year (that's EPS growth rate). This stock has been a solid performer for me, but I wouldn't be a buyer right now. Might even be a good idea to trim my position a bit.

     

    Here's another area that deserves a look. (ED), (WEC) & (SCG) are all utilities that I currently own. Solid dividend producers, utilities are important part of your portfolio. If you check earnings, yield etc. (SCG) is looking good. But only on a market pull back.

     

    I'm not overly concerned with what the "market" will do tomorrow, next week, or even next year.

     

    What is important to me is how the stocks I own are doing. Or if a stock that I'd like to own is under valued, then I'd be a buyer.

     

    What is important to me are the dividends. If you design a portfolio that will generate dividends every month, you can live off of that. Or use the dividends to buy more stock...so that your dividend machine continues to grow.

     

    (PSEC) has made a terrific come back in the last month or so. Meanwhile, I am enjoying those dividends. People who sold in a panic, or didn't buy when (PSEC) got cheap - that's a pity. Currently, (PSEC) is paying 12.28%.

     

    Another stock that looks ok to buy is (NOC). Forward PE is 13.4, although EPS don't look that great for the next year, long term this is an excellent company to own.

     

    Keep looking for stocks that are undervalued - they are out there. Since the dividends keep flowing in, I'm always looking for where to invest that $. Lately, I've been reluctant to buy - but that could change quickly.

     

    Perhaps this is why we are not seeing the long awaited correction....there is plenty of cash on the sidelines, watching for an opportunity to get in the game.

     

    How much cash is in your portfolio? Some people are commenting here on SA that they are over 50% cash.

     

    Short term, investing in stocks (long or short) can be dangerous. Therefore, look for value before you buy. Dividends make it profitable to be in - & stay in - the market long term.
    6 Jul 2014, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3523) | Send Message
     
    Blue: Bud's trailing 12 month profit was impacted "by the exceptional gain related to the fair value adjustment on the initial investment held in Grupo Modelo. . . .Excluding the after-tax exceptional items discussed above, profit attributable to our equity holders for the year ended 31 December 2013 would have been USD 7,936 million and basic earnings per share would have been USD 4.91."

     

    Using last Thursday closing price of $115.65, the P/E would have been 23.55 based on USD 4.91.

     

    Pages 81-82
    http://1.usa.gov/1zi2wmY
    6 Jul 2014, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Blue,
    How much cash is in your portfolio? Some people are commenting here on SA that they are over 50% cash.

     

    I noticed that fact also when viewing articles and comments here on SA lately , the " caution flag" is out for many , another sign that there is no overwhelming euphoria or exuberance present --
    6 Jul 2014, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    F&G, I'm actually shocked at how many comments I see talking about the market being about to "crash" or at least correct 10, 20 or more %. So many people talk about how they are selling, or already are holding cash. I also suspect some authors, and commenters of trying to get people to sell (and sometimes buy as well). After witnessing some crazy action with (GALE) here on SA, there are now some authors that I would never trust. The price of a stock can and has been manipulated by articles here. (GALE) is just one example. This is what makes investing in companies that have no history so dangerous. You never know what is manipulation and what is really "the truth."

     

    All I can say is, after doing extensive reading & research here on SA, dividend growth investing is the only thing that makes sense to me. Because DGI is extremely boring, buying a few growth stocks that look intriguing keeps me interested in researching stocks. Some are a little too exciting, like (ICPT). Who says the stock market isn't a casino? It sure is if you want it to be : )

     

    Thank goodness (CELG) (GILD) and a few other stocks I just happened to notice & buy are doing well.

     

    Have to say (PSEC) did have me worried, but now it's doing better.

     

    I'm ok with a market correction, it would help me increase some of my positions in stocks that are worth owning for the long term. I'm not buying anything at the moment....but still keep looking.

     

    (ED) & some of the other utility companies are worth buying if you don't already have utility stocks in your portfolio. So is (T), now that's a great company to own.

     

    Just this evening, I read a reassuring comment from a long term investor - over 40 years. He thinks this market will be just fine, and he's not worried.

     

    Let's see how we're doing 2 years from now. I'd like to keep increasing the number of shares in my DGI stocks, so that those dividends keep on accumulating. You really can construct a wealth producing machine & live off the dividends.
    6 Jul 2014, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    The market has indeed come a long way and even the most steadfast bulls realize that the market will correct and work off the excess at some point in time..

     

    We are approaching S & P 2000 and are within range of the old Nasdaq closing high of 4,696 . given this recent upward move those levels could prove formidable to take out on THIS attempt.

     

    In the context of a secular bull market at some point in time those levels will be taken out .. but perhaps not before the markets self corrects . whether that will come with prices taking a dip or simply consolidating over a period of time --who knows..

     

    The bears are ready to pounce (the recent sentiment you discovered here on SA is proof of that )on any sniff of lower equity prices, they will say "I told u so" and raise the victory flag , & load up on the short side. That is of course assuming they have the funds to do that after all of the failed attempts to call the TOP from S & P 1600 -

     

    They will in fact find that the plane is simply refueling .. and once again will be taken to the woodshed .
    7 Jul 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    I make a small distinction when discussing the current market's likely behavior.

     

    When I see the word "excess" and "correction" I expect to find a market, whose valuations are inconsistent with corporate performance, a market where the slope of the market rise is accelerating upward and away from the trend line, usually accompanied by growing market volumes. Now, I find none of these indicators.

     

    Corporate earnings have mostly kept pace with the market advance, such that trailing and forward P/E's are now 19+ and 15-16, respectively. The upward trend of the market remains rather linear, not hyperbolic. Lastly, market volumes remain very muted. Additionally, vast sums still remain allocated away from equities in other issues, e.g., cash, gold, bonds.

     

    Of course, the market can always conjure up some new excuse or fear to attempt to generate a "pullback" (more fitting than "correction"), but unless the foregoing conditions change, or corporate earnings advances subside, it is going to be very difficult for this market to generate any significant downward momentum.

     

    7 Jul 2014, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I do agree with your assessment of the current investment landscape --

     

    This morning I find myself in one of those instances where I'm of the mindset that the market may conjure up something..

     

    I'm certainly not overreacting here and any weakness that is conjured up in the face of a good earnings quarter will present an opportunity..

     

    maybe I read too many of those "negative nancy" articles (which are everywhere) to put me in this mindset that the hedge fund gurus will find some excuse to generate a pullback ..... LOL
    7 Jul 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ,

     

    So is today a buy dip??
    8 Jul 2014, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3523) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I am in a net selling mode. The purpose is to bring myself back to my pre-existing stock allocation dollar amount as of February 2014 which requires about a $31,000 reduction in stocks.

     

    Today's dip is inconsequential and was probably triggered by some weak economic numbers from Germany.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1tk...

     

    As noted in that article, BMW is adding plant in Washington state where energy cost is about 1/6th of the cost in Germany, one of long term secular forces that now favor U.S. manufacturing.

     

    I would not focus on how much the market goes down, but whether individual stocks are in a buy, sell or hold range. If the market goes down 15%, it will take most stocks with it to varying decrees. I will then have more potential buying choices than I do now. I have a few stocks, such as Realty Income, that are well outside my buy range and have entered by consider to sell range. All of those type of decisions are made independent of market averages.

     

    Another example is a recent buy of National Bankshares at $30.4, discussed in this blog:

     

    http://bit.ly/1z5fW5z

     

    I was not interested in the stock until it declined from around $36 to $30.4 which was within my buy range.

     

    Another recent purchase which I will discuss in my next weekly post is the Canadian holding company Power Corporation of Canada. I did not use my CADs to buy shares on the Toronto exchange, and instead elected to buy the ordinary shares priced in USDs and traded on the Pink Sheet Exchange. I bought just 100 (OTCPK:PWCDF) at USD$27.29. There is some dividend support at the current annual rate of C$1.16 per share. The consensus estimate, as of today, was for an E.P.S. of C$2.54 in 2014, according to Bloomberg, so the P/E is reasonable. The P/B ratio was shown at Bloomberg at 1.31.

     

    Bloomberg Data:
    http://bloom.bg/1tkoBk9

     

    If the Canadian Dollar rises against the USD subsequent to my purchase, this will give a boost to the ordinary shares traded in the U.S. and priced in USDs.
    8 Jul 2014, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Not a chance.
    8 Jul 2014, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    hard to say if we will see more weakness on the averages before things stabilize..

     

    It also depends on what you are looking to buy ... A lot of stocks remain in strong uptrends ---(MU) was lower and then reversed while the overall market remains down..

     

    (GILD) did the same , that is an indication of overall strength..

     

    I am watching (LVS) , it's a good selection in the low 70's
    it pays a 2.5% div.

     

    don't overlook (AAPL) , maybe headed back to triple digits.. and all time highs ..
    8 Jul 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    (MU) had quite a day - on news :).

     

    The Fed seems to have taken care of this last dip for now...

     

    Lots of the ideas posted here have done well. I did see a posting this morning that optimism is high for Scottrade portfolio holders. They're feeling positive about their holdings.

     

    Seems to me, hard to get into things... the better choices have already run up. ...I've been taking care of home repair emergencies, and need to dig in some more. (LVS) seems to be a turnaround story ...

     

    any one adding at this point? What are you adding?
    9 Jul 2014, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    L,,
    (LVS) had a nice turnaround today , spent most of the day lower ($74 area ) closed up on the day @ 75.89 ..

     

    If you are going to hold for 6 months or more -- and with the 2.7% div.. it doesn't make a diff at these prices to start a position and if it drops and the fundamentals are the same u add more.. trying to get the 'perfect' price and entry point rarely happens. :)

     

    I was out most of the aft. not sure what u mean by (MU) news and the fed on today's dip..

     

    I did see it was lower most of the day but closed well off the lows..
    supposedly samsung is "THINKING' it will start to build a new facility to bring on more DRAM memory in 2015 ,, if so that adds capacity - but in my view IF it happens - no impact until 2016 ... plenty of runway left before that even comes on line , ASSUMING the samsung news is correct....

     

    I mentioned $30 as a target when it was $22 , I now believe upper 30's to $ 40 is not a stretch ..
    Its not where its been its where it going .. :)
    9 Jul 2014, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . FG

     

    The samsung announcement is what I was thinking of. At the time I saw it, (MU) was down -4% on it (according to the blurb.)
    9 Jul 2014, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Bought some (GM) and (T) today. Will buy more....good dividend stocks.
    9 Jul 2014, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BSF

     

    Why (GM)?
    9 Jul 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    peg ratio is 0.25; higher growth expected this year; GM is selling very well in China; all the recalls have not affected sales - in fact, people going in for the recall are buying new cars when they see them at the dealer; what's NOT to like?? Wish I had bought GM a long time ago : )
    9 Jul 2014, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    Agree. Bought (GM) last month.
    9 Jul 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Thanks for the logic, BSF! Wish I'd bought a lot of things a long time ago :). If the recalls have brought the price down a little, but not effected sales, that's a win. ...with newer management and this uncovered, it's unlikely they'll continue the "recallable" manufacturing.
    9 Jul 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    Remember all those folks who proclaimed that the markets would plunge when the Fed withdrew QE?
    9 Jul 2014, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    Many of them are no longer with us --- they have been carried out .,,

     

    Some are still around , now they are hanging their new theory on the thought that the fed can't stop QE entirely !! Not sure how they have missed what is going on , where they have been or how they can continue to believe that.

     

    However, it seems there are plenty of "doubting debbies" out there... :)

     

    The latest --- a cry for immediate raising of interest rates and immediate halting of QE , there again , not sure where they have been , but many of them are the same that said the market would crater at QE removal.. now they want IMMEDIATE halt ..... too much prozac out there --- it all reads like a sitcom...

     

    of course we can count on mr faber as he joins the we "wil crash , we just don't know when crowd" Honestly how do they make this stuff up.. and get paid for it !!! :) He called for a crash @ S & P 1200 .............

     

    http://cnb.cx/1lUZ33x
    9 Jul 2014, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    You know when the bulls ridicule the bears where we are.......

     

    Seriously I love the timing on the last number of comments. complacency is overwhelming.

     

    I've made no changes to my intermediate views or positioning short in a number of momemtum and social media names, again basis would be russell 2k....
    10 Jul 2014, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Yep,

     

    Once AGAIN , its time for the bulls to step up be forced to defend their market thesis and the 200% plus gains in a corrective phase of the market .....

     

    I love the timing of the bear stories .. and there are plenty of them in this often called "complacent" market

     

    its been that way all along

     

    &; its quite comical..

     

    as Far as the russell , I hate to think what one did to their portfolio IF they did indeed follow the naysayers along with their heavy short position when the russell hit 1080 . and the financial world as we know it was supposed to end ..

     

    let me recap , ,, the average then rose 12%.

     

    of course that is conveniently forgotten now , but let me explain---- a 12% draw down now simply brings one back to "even"

     

    I'll stand by My comments to LMH on Monday @ 9:00 AM

     

    "The market has indeed come a long way and even the most steadfast bulls realize that the market will correct and work off the excess at some point in time..

     

    We are approaching S & P 2000 and are within range of the old Nasdaq closing high of 4,696 . given this recent upward move those levels could prove formidable to take out on THIS attempt.

     

    In the context of a secular bull market at some point in time those levels will be taken out .. but perhaps not before the markets self corrects . whether that will come with prices taking a dip or simply consolidating over a period of time --who knows.. "

     

    I will add today -----Nothing has changed in the LT picture..
    10 Jul 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3523) | Send Message
     
    Faber's doom and gloom rivals the late Alan Abelson who was bullish for about ten minutes back in 1982.

     

    Some of Faber's most recent misfires are chronicled in the Calculated Risk blog today:

     

    http://bit.ly/1mKrS8X

     

    Since he has been a Barron's Roundtable panelist for a long time, it is possible for subscribers to go back in time and see just how many of Faber's predictions actually panned out.

     

    I pulled up the following statement made by Faber in January 2009:

     

    "If they (stocks) go up 50% from the Nov. 21 low of 741 on the S&P, you'll have the S&P at around 1,100. Afterward, reality will set in and in real terms the market will go much lower for much longer."

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    In another Roundtable segment that year, Faber made this prediction:

     

    "One day the price of gold will be higher than the Dow Jones. . . . . The Dow and the S&P are up substantially from the 1980s or early 1990s. Everyone thinks fiscal and monetary measures will work to fix the financial system. I don't. They will be disastrous and fuel inflation. "

     

    1/26/2009 Issue
    http://on.barrons.com/...
    9 Jul 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1714) | Send Message
     
    Hi SG:

     

    Thought you could add some sparkle to this article:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Extreme
    10 Jul 2014, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3523) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: Apparently that SA author has developed an algorithm based on the VIX index as a market timing tool. He does not disclose the mathematics which is fine, since I would not understand the math anyway. I did not even know how to spell algorithm and just dragged and dropped the word here from his article. My VIX Model is much simpler, with either a green or red light that beams for several years.

     

    I am reminded that it was a math formula, known as the "Gaussian copola function" that blew up the financial system back in 2008.

     

    Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street
    http://wrd.cm/1rZLbNA

     

    I just called it at the time a Nerd Abstraction divorced from reality.

     

    The financial firms hired a quant known as Paul Wilmott in 2009 to give Nerd Therapy which he called
    a "Certificate in Quantitative Finance":

     

    http://bit.ly/1rZL9VN

     

    I suspect that the mild market declines today had little to do with some bank in Portugal, and what was the name of that bank. I have already forgotten. Europe appears to hit an economic pothole. France reported industrial production down 3.7% Y-O-Y and core inflation in June was up only .1% Y-O-Y. German and Italy also reported negative industrial production numbers.

     

    I have successfully reduced my stock allocation by over $30,000 as of Wednesday by selling mostly underperforming stock funds, a few small stock ETF positions, and paring a few other funds that I intend to keep by selling the highest cost shares.

     

    I will probably go a little deeper but will buy any individual stock that meets my valuation criteria.

     

    I added another Virginia bank recently (NKSH), at $30.4. National Bankshares is headquartered in Blacksburg.

     

    http://bit.ly/1z5fW5z

     

    Between 2006-2010, NKSH's net income and annual dividend rate increased each year. That is impressive under the circumstances.

     

    I wonder when Faber's prediction of the gold price exceeding the DJIA level will come true?
    10 Jul 2014, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1714) | Send Message
     
    Hi SG:

     

    The national bank of Blacksburg is a good choice. It has been a good performer for a long time. The former CEO use to be a colleague of mine. I would recommend another Virginia bank with the symbol of BSSC. I am a graduate of Virginia Tech and have my 40th reunion this year in Blacksburg. It is a very nice area.
    10 Jul 2014, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (3523) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: BSSC almost never trades.

     

    http://bit.ly/1nd2qTQ

     

    No financial data was filed with the SEC. I did find some financial data at banknet and the FFIEC.gov site. The capital ratios are very high:

     

    http://bit.ly/1nd2t1X

     

    Total Share=290,000

     

    Net operating Income:
    $8,568,000 2013/ $29.43 per share?
    $8,462,000 2012
    $8,361,000 2011

     

    I did not see any dividend payments.
    10 Jul 2014, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1714) | Send Message
     
    SG:

     

    I forgot you were income only. BSSC does not pay a dividend. But it has been a great performing bank for years and years. It does rarely trade. I have acquired a few shares over the years.
    11 Jul 2014, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    SG - could count on you to find historic quotes to support your thesis :).

     

    The whole MW crowd seems very bearish & alarmist most of the time (to me.)
    9 Jul 2014, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ..

     

    On PEG ratios, any thoughts on using them... when to, when not to... or anything that newbies wouldn't think of?
    9 Jul 2014, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    I only like to look at peg ratios for non-dividend growth stocks. Peg's are pretty much worthless when it comes to dividend growers.
    10 Jul 2014, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    That's interesting, and good to know. Thanks.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    In today's Scottrade article they're suggesting hedging for a possible correction, by keeping your portfolio a low beta one. It's seemed like too much effort to me, instead of just assessing a stock on it's individual merits.

     

    ...but it did raise a question...Do you spend any time thinking about beta for stocks compared to the market or industry?
    9 Jul 2014, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    L,
    I don't

     

    then again I usually limit the higher beta momentum names in my holdings to a minimum--

     

    I will sprinkle in a (FB) which i have had since the mid 20's and have held , or like i did the other day when I added (NPSP) as a "flyer" on a possible takeover play ...

     

    overall stocks like that represent a small portion of my overall holdings..

     

    the scottrade article is yet another indication how everyone is going into a tortoise shell to 'protect" the downside--

     

    that demonstrates once again there is little or no "euphoria" out there
    9 Jul 2014, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Here is an interesting article by Chuck Carnevale,

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    He points out the PE ratios on 16 of the Dow 30 components..

     

    no value out there ?? Hmmmm.........
    9 Jul 2014, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Thanks Fear -- for the ideas, and the article!
    9 Jul 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . Yair

     

    Are you okay? It's sounding close to major population areas... all the best from here!
    9 Jul 2014, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    Have we been spoiled! I went back over a year and couldn't find a day with a near 1% decline on the open.

     

    The only thing I intend to do today is adding to holdings of defensive dividend growers if they get down to my prices. I need to put more cash to work.

     

    I'm not bearish to the S&P, but with the horrendous Japanese machinery orders and lousy European production figures I need more than 2% decline in the S&P from the high to get aggressive - especially with earnings coming up.
    10 Jul 2014, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    In my view , Nothing more than the "possibility" of a 10% drawdown in the averages ........

     

    The markets have come a long way .... Unless i see something compelling , I usually wait for the stories to indicate that we could be entering a bear market , and i really will step up IF i start to hear warnings.. that we will revisit the new lows..

     

    The "Gems" that can be uncovered will be companies that beat earnings and possibly raise guidance amidst the market knee jerk reactions
    10 Jul 2014, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    I expect you will get that. Greece, portugal, back in the news.

     

    Risk is being reconsidered this morning after being a dirty word for so long.

     

    Maybe people will reconsider the wisdom of lending money to Greece, Portugal, and a whole host of weak companies in the junk bond area at ridiculous yields.
    10 Jul 2014, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Yes, the entire world is hanging in the balance, depending on whether a $4B Portugese bank survives or not. This will last fifteen minutes.
    10 Jul 2014, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Junk bonds and overseas rates got talked about a bit among people I know (very retail investors). But there was all of one person I know who seriously considered buying anything. Do you know if there are stats on what % of money is actually in the junk area & foreign bonds, and not sitting in bank accounts at 1%?
    10 Jul 2014, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    C'mon man -- in your words from Monday -- we are in the "conjouring" phase .... :)

     

    next ----the "contagion" word will be resurfaced :)
    10 Jul 2014, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Trust then you are buying with both hands this morning.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    I added to Shorts this morning.

     

    BTW I am almost at my highs of the year; -- just on a lousy 30 point SPX dip --- thats how fast the bid has disappeared from the weak companies.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Selling puts in BBVA, SAN and ING.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    I believe it was also mentioned (DB) was a good buy at 41 and long rates were headed higher.......
    10 Jul 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Selling puts -- so you expect those to all go up within your put time frame? Why not buy outright (are any dividend stocks)?
    10 Jul 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I'm up triple digits in all three issues I mentioned and will be happy to bank the premium income, too. Do you have a point to make?

     

    Rates will trend higher. Just be patient. As a high-yield investor, I'm just as happy that they're not in any rush.
    10 Jul 2014, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    When one sells puts one is not expecting them to go higher. One is expecting their value to decay to zero.

     

    I sell puts at strike prices at or below the current price. Either I'll bank the premium, or, if prices fall below my strikes, then, I'll bank the premium and add shares to my holdings at those strike prices.

     

    I am already holding positions in all three issues mentioned and would rather add more at lower prices or bank the premiums outright, rather than buying shares, now.
    10 Jul 2014, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    Please......
    where did anyone say that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...

     

    please re read my commentary from last monday here and my commentary here this am.........
    10 Jul 2014, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    In my case,, since I am building a position , I will be adding SAN , It's in free fall this morning , so I'll wait to see where the dust settles.
    10 Jul 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    Already 20 cents above its low. Not the time to watch. December $10 puts at 65 cents or January at ~80 cents are a fat pitch.
    10 Jul 2014, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    I tried to short (SAN) but could not get stock to borrow.

     

    I've shorted both (BAC) and (C) today instead.
    10 Jul 2014, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    Tack - it's not just Portugal. Summer is often tough, even Germany has been reporting lousy numbers of late, and some recent earnings - Lumber Liquidators, WD40, Destination Maternity - lousy comments from Walmart's CEO, etc.

     

    It could be more of the same with a rolling correction in the various sectors with the S&P going almost nowhere, but I'm not thrilled with the technical action over the past month or so in either the financials or industrials.

     

    I have not sold one share of anything over the past few weeks - in fact have been fairly aggressive buyer of a few stocks - primarily GIS, JNJ and BAX - but I'm feeling a bit uncomfortable.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    That just means you won't lose money on three issues instead of two. You're probably losing money already on the two you selected, as they have been rising all day. SAN is even further off its low, so you were spared.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    dd:

     

    There's been a blizzard of positive data in the last few weeks. However, one can search and find something to worry about if one wishes to worry. Today's tizzy over a meaningless impossibly small Portugese bank is just such an example.

     

    The market slowly grinding higher, while corporate earnings keep up, is the perfect scenario for extending the market's direction. Coupled with low interest rates, under no immediate pressure, t can hardly get more perfect for anyone who's a dividend or yield investor. The time to get concerned will be if the market starts to advance upward at a faster rate than its longer-term trend line, and on higher volumes. Those are conditions that can set the stage for a major correction. Now, we just keep consolidating in real time.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    You are awfully confident about the results of my trades.

     

    Why don't you take the other side then and outright buy (SAN), (C), (BAC).
    10 Jul 2014, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I own many thousands of shares of SAN and BAC, as well as having the short side (i.e., selling) of puts. In fact, I sold additional SAN and BBVA puts early this morning.

     

    My money was/is already aligned with my words, so your challenge is wasted.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    I am short many thousands of shares of BAC and C.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Mac, there's short term trading (day trading can really mean holding a stock for a few nanoseconds) and then there's long term buy & hold for decade after decade investing.

     

    Totally, entirely & completely different styles of making $.

     

    If it works for you, great.

     

    Meanwhile, I'm content to just sit back & collect my dividends. Will love to buy more of my favorites when they go on "sale."

     

    I hate to sell, but once in awhile it's okay to take some profits.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    How many dividends do C and BAC pay?

     

    I have been short the same positions for many weeks now; so I'm not sure where this nanosecond trades comment comes from.

     

    Only BAC and C shorts are new. I have been short the same momo stocks for awhile.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Exactly....those 2 would never be my picks : )
    10 Jul 2014, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Not calling you a day trader M, just saying there are all kinds of people that trade/invest in stocks

     

    quite a spectrum really.

     

    I'm on the far end that buys, holds, collects dividends & only sells if it makes sense. Like when the dividend gets cut.

     

    My comment was to only note that there are all kinds of traders & investors...and that is why I tend to not sweat the every day market influences. For others, what happens in the next 5 minutes could cause them to adjust a trade. Not you....but because of your style of trading, the day to day stuff is more important.

     

    There are many ways to make $. That's all that matters in the end.
    10 Jul 2014, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2554) | Send Message
     
    Tack - the blizzard of positive data is one of the reasons I've been buying stuff - but I've stayed largely away from adding to cyclicals. It's important to note, though, that the blizzard has largely been confined to employment and manufacturing - and priced in.

     

    However, the employment data was still missing the wage gains I think necessary to give the economy more buoyancy.

     

    I think the S&P is likely to be higher by the end of the year; short term I don't have a clue - but I'm seeing plenty of divergences in my more cyclical holdings so I'm leaning a little negative short run - but not negative enough to start selling.
    10 Jul 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Tack;

     

    Try to understand how markets discount news.

     

    The blizzard of positive data, and many months more, is fully, completely, and utterly priced in to current valuations. End of story.
    10 Jul 2014, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I guess that just leave us with wild-ass guesses, huh? I'll stick with mine.
    10 Jul 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    My thoughts.

     

    Less to do with Portugal per se; as to the risk appetites in lending to weak countries and companies ( in the junk bond market) at what I consider ridiculous yields for the risk.

     

    This news along with what (LL) has to say about the housing market is very relevant to risk appetites, and what multiples people are willing to pay. This will IMO disproportionately affect the weak companies I am short.
    10 Jul 2014, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I have a hard time using (LL) as a proxy for the housing market given the recent data points on housing that have been reported.
    10 Jul 2014, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    Why does anybody think that markets are sitting on the edge of their seats about housing? Housing has returned to its pre-2005 position as just another component -- not even a particularly big one -- of the overall economy. There is absolutely no credit overhang, so whether prices go up, down or sideways makes very little difference, overall. And, as long as new construction continues to lag the expansion of the economy and employment, the downside for housing is buttressed.

     

    The focus on housing is just another manifestation of the post-2008 PTSD effect.
    10 Jul 2014, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    I've been wondering the same thing. Housing is a big component of the economy -- leads to buying things for the house. However, I've wondered why it seems to get center stage as though it's a lynch pin the recovery. A year ago, it was still not out of the woods, but by now it solidly is in most markets.
    10 Jul 2014, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    T,LMH,

     

    Housing is a "lynch" pin (along with other points) that the naysayers have to hang their hats on to make a case--

     

    we all have diff. conceptions of the markets - where they've been and where they might be headed..

     

    but as I look around amidst some of the selling I see quality names in the green.

     

    even some high beta names (FB) & (GILD) are green today....

     

    so while the volume on the "noise" is spiked up -- I believe its best to keep an eye on quality names that beat estimates and perhaps raise guidance--

     

    10 Jul 2014, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Both Owens Corning and now (LL) have negatively commented on housing.

     

    I think its relevant; as is the performance of both lumber prices and homebuilders for an extended period of time.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Lumber prices look pretty stable, LL notwithstanding. http://bit.ly/wA31ex
    10 Jul 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    FG;

     

    An internet name with no employees, no revenue and no cash is also screaming higher today (OTCPK:CYNK)

     

    Must be quality too then 'cause its up.
    10 Jul 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    You could each morning look at the top-ten NASDAQ movers, both up and down, and see massive percentage changes on some names nobody ever heard of and then pick either list to claim that it represents that the overall market is either going in the toilet or to the moon, depending on your mood.
    10 Jul 2014, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    M, that sounds like fraud to me....but then I personally know of a few jerks that created a company, took it public (made an outrageous amount of $ on the IPO) and then spent the next year or two trying to figure out how to transfer that $ to themselves. It should have been profiled on Sixty Minutes. But there was so much fraud going on during the dot com dot busted days....some cockroaches got away with it.

     

    The crazy thing is, none of the people that did this fraud ever got caught, and they never will.

     

    Even after many pointed it out to the authorities.

     

    Remember how many times Madoff was investigated by the SEC? Twice if I remember correctly.

     

    Too many criminals for the SEC to get them all.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    BSF;

     

    I thought everyone was fearfully hiding in cash; not chasing fraudulent companies higher. That company at todays high had a $4 Billion Market Cap!

     

    Yes Tack there is no greed in today's market.
    10 Jul 2014, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    M, I didn't look at the ticker or check it out. Just wary of investing in a company that could be fraudulent. The one you are talking about is likely legit.

     

    Just noting my thoughts. It still burns me that those guys (sorry, no names - I don't want a lawsuit!) defrauded so many investors, back during the dot com days.

     

    Back in my younger days, when I knew nothing, I would never have thought people that I actually met & knew from a very historic research place would actually turn out to be criminals.

     

    The odd thing was, I had no idea how evil they really were. By chance, through real estate, I met someone that "worked" at that fraudulent company. It is truly a shame what happened.

     

    Oddly enough, my client was originally from Canada too. An honest guy that wasted a couple of years working for fraudsters, until he wised up & got out.

     

    It happens in every industry. Con artists are everywhere.
    10 Jul 2014, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    good for them----- (OTCPK:CYNK)

     

    I take my clues on the market action today from (INTC), (CSCO), (FB), (GILD) , (AAPL) (just to name a few) as far as the price action in the "market" and certainly couldn't /wouldn't use a pink sheet name to come up with an investment strategy..

     

    to put it another way, I call up a client and tell him/her I'm getting out of the market because (cynk) is up and there is euphoroa , hysteria in this market and its the precursor of bad things to come......

     

    after that call im carted away by two guys with white coats..

     

    do I make sense now ??
    10 Jul 2014, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    OK, just clicked on that CYNK link...

     

    http://bit.ly/1sXkA5b

     

    Yup, that's fraud. A whole $39 in assets?!! Who ever bought that sh*t should have done more research. And why does a company with $39 in assets get to IPO in the first place? Hello, SEC, do your job....there are sheep being shorn every day on Wall St.

     

    LOL, CYNK is based in Las Vegas. Even better, it's up today!

     

    http://cnb.cx/TVnJlB

     

    Ah yes, the stock market is the biggest casino of all.
    10 Jul 2014, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    F;

     

    If I was your client and you told me you were buying (SAN) today; I might raise an eyebrow.

     

    You might be right. I just think its way too early to risk money on euro banks.
    10 Jul 2014, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    don't turn it around please , i call you and tell you exactly what I wrote..

     

    your response would be more than a raise of an eyebrow.. I'm sure...
    10 Jul 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    I reread.

     

    No issues.

     

    F; I am not an Armageddon bear, but I think almost all assets are expensive relative to the risk. Very simple.
    10 Jul 2014, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I disagree that all assets are expensive -- and that is what makes a market........
    10 Jul 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    http://cnb.cx/1rZd08L

     

    F;

     

    Carl Icahn disagrees with you.

     

    Just another pundit?
    10 Jul 2014, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    At least 4 billionaires I can think of are really cautious on the US stock market. I continue to find it highly amusing that SA pundits dismiss thoughts of highly successful investors so readily as " just another pundit".

     

    I'm sure its all because these 80- something year old's with more money than they can ever count are trying to manipulate a massive selloff because they are secretly desperate to buy.

     

    Think how ridiculous that sounds.
    10 Jul 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    $39 in assets. Lol. Wow.
    10 Jul 2014, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    are there specific classes of assets you're seeing as not expensive? (... or is it basically the various individual stocks you've been posting about)?
    10 Jul 2014, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I saw that in CNBC -- my first reaction -- Carl has put on some short positions - LOL

     

    A coincidence to make that announcement on this type of day in the markets -- I think not .. set up the shorts and get on CNBC .. :)

     

    and I dont remember saying to go all in here ,,in fact I remember saying we could have the potential of a 10% drawn down just this morning ..

     

    so maybe Carl read my post and is agreeing with me !!!! ;)
    10 Jul 2014, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    F;

     

    as I indicated -- IMO Carl, Wilbur Ross, Seth Klarman; ect going on CNBC to move the market is beyond ridiculous.

     

    If he wanted to do that he would have said we are about to crash. Seems to me he was deliberately cautious about his comments.

     

    Perhaps he caused the (LL) huge miss and Portugal bank issues too?

     

    I'm sure you are kidding.

     

    BTW 10% in the SPX would likely move my short positions 30-40% based on the action seen on a 1% move. Thats worth playing for.
    10 Jul 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    did it ever cross your mind that they have agendas - since they can get there "message " out in the airwaves rather quickly ? thus taking advantage of that notoriety....

     

    also - lets go back to the first time u warned me and that Seth Klarman was cautious -- & chastised me for being blasphemous for not paying attention ..
    wasn't that S & p 1800 ?? lets go look it up ...

     

    Now how ridiculous do those folks look who sold out because they read an article ....... same logic today ..
    Please remove the thought in your mind that those that have been bullish are wildily telling everyone that wil listen ------ to go all in now.. It truly implies that the bullish crowd is stupid--- The market has shown that those taking the other side of the bullish arguments are wearing the dunce cap ..
    & exactly where did anyone here say to throw caution to the wind ..
    You continue to use the day and short term momentum players as a proxy for what is going on in the market and quite frankly haven't we shown by the price action in the SPX ---that its not the case at all..
    By the commentary and debates we have had here - you have maintained that 'proxy' theme since last qtr '13. S& P then --1800 and you were very vocal when the average went to 1750 in Feb '14 --
    S & P just recorded a new high at 1985.....
    235 S & P points ......
    While you may have made money with the timing of the "short" trade-- from time to time
    I don't believe anyone can accuse me of being incorrect on the markets, and I need not defend the bullish case I have laid out, since it has beeen correct.. 
    When that changes I will surely tell everyone here, for the moment it hasn't .. ...
    10 Jul 2014, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    Individual names that I continue to mention...
    10 Jul 2014, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    You think one could find four billionaires that are long? Probably that and a lot more. There's an "expert" pundit on CNBC every hour of every day. Proves nothing and is worthless.

     

    Is that how you make investment decisions (I forgot, you trade), by listening eagerly to what the pundit of the day has to say in the media somewhere? You get a modest red day, or hear Carl Icahn, and, suddenly, you're all full of your Cheerios, again?

     

    Those that have adhered to a consistent strategy, based on factual data, have done quite well, and the data suggests it will continue a while. It's especially likely given the low trading volumes and large allocations still away from equities. The markets are not likely to make major changes in behavior until that pattern is altered.

     

    Personally, I prefer to assess various hard data and draw my own conclusions. But, of course, you can make daily speculative bets via the pundit du jour.
    10 Jul 2014, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Yeah, those dire Portugese bank issues. One micro-puny bank, which by the end of the day was green, which makes the panicky reaction and sell-off of major global banks all the more hilarious.
    10 Jul 2014, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Many have agendas but I simply don't see guys like Klarman and Wilbur Ross that way. Nor Carl Icahn -- at least with these kind of comments. I don't see it and I've been doing this long enough to be pretty skeptical.

     

    Yes Klarman has been cautious for a lot of 2013, even.

     

    I don't think either the correct measuring stick is how many SPX points have occurred since Klarman has been cautious. The man is a billionaire and has one of, if not the best, long term records out there. Same with Wilbur Ross.

     

    Their credibility, is simply beyond any discussion, period.

     

    I disagree and would say many wearing the bull cap and investing in certain assets, will within a few months to a year be shown to be wearing the "dunce cap".

     

    Exhibit "a" of many, many examples were the idiots taking up a company worth exactly $39 to a 4 billion valuation today. (Cynk).

     

    Yes on it's face meaningless but an example.

     

    As I've said I think those invested in junk bonds and certain high -yield will be shown to be the "fool" at the table.

     

    It's all what makes a market.
    10 Jul 2014, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac,
    your comment :
    "I disagree and would say many wearing the bull cap and investing in certain assets, will within a few months to a year be shown to be wearing the "dunce cap"."

     

    whether you fit this description ----- I''ll leave that up to you to proclaim or decide

     

    but i'll say it like i see it -----to ANYONE that makes that reply to me ..

     

    THAT statement is on page 1 of the frustrated bear manual and has been preached to me since S & P 1550.......

     

    & its absurd..
    10 Jul 2014, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I'm not interested in responding to your commentary.

     

    Your lack of respect for those who disagree with your views is telling.

     

    I've been doing this awhile, and am trouncing the SPX this year despite going the other way for most of the year.

     

    I have a multi-faceted process I use for making my decisions. Price is the final arbiter, and I am very happy with my performance this year.

     

    Good luck to you and that high yield stuff you and everyone and his brother is piled into.
    10 Jul 2014, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    Not interested in idol worship of financial icons, so Please give me more of an explanation of the 235 S & P points that are on the table since Feb '14 .......

     

    Quite tired of the bears making a trivial instance of 235 S & P points .. and if you do wish to go back to the beginning of '13 its gets worse - S & P 1400

     

    585 S & P POINTS !!---- that a lifestyle changing event for most investors and u want me to worship idols..

     

    Pleas tell us you have much more than idol worship to make a case to sell this market..

     

    or better yet to have SOLD this market.. listening to those articles.......

     

    And I'm going to wear the dunce cap --- ?????

     

    That is unadulterated frustrated bear nonsense .. and anyone listening to that gibberish has paid dearly ..

     

    So NOW , we should ALL stand up & listen , please give us reasons why, after they told me to leave 585 S &P points on the table..

     

    I'd rather listen to those that have had it RIGHT..
    10 Jul 2014, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Who said anyone has left 600 SPX points on the table?

     

    Has Klarman been completely out of the market for that time?

     

    I could do worse than carefully listening to those who have had it right over the long term, instead of the cnbc permabull of the day.
    10 Jul 2014, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac.

     

    Who said anyone has left 600 SPX points on the table?

     

    I did.. --

     

    and my observation is based on the bear rhetoric that has been bandied about since early '13..

     

    and any 'idols" that have not participated are included in my observation ...

     

    The dunce cap has been permanently affixed to their heads.. and it will take a calamitous event that even they wouldn't want to see to remove it , on second thought it cant be removed as

     

    This period in financial history will go down in the record books and those that have chosen to take the 'other side" are forever doomed to their ill advised decisions and they wil go down in hostory as "fools".....
    As i mentioned a few days ago --- case closed ......

     

    10 Jul 2014, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Your assertion that investors like Seth Klarman who have not participated fully in the blow off phase of this rally -- and that's what it is --- are wearing a "dunce cap" is beyond lubricious and shows no appreciation for history. Wow. Unbelievable. I am speechless.

     

    Reminds me of those lately critiquing warren buffet right here on SA -- as an old guy who doesn't "get tech" ( or non Gapp earnings).

     

    Shows you where we are.

     

    History has a way of asserting itself.

     

    My advice to others reading is blunt.

     

    Raise cash. Now.
    10 Jul 2014, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,
    you should be speechless - i would also be if I left that much on the table -- its alarming isn't it to be that WRONG --
    " blow off "phase of this market , isnt that what I was warned about at 1800 ... We arent even close to a blow off phase -- and I said that to somenone here on SA @ 1825... and the bear hate mail still comes in ;)
    Your comment :

     

    My advice to others reading is blunt.

     

    Raise cash. Now.

     

    you have echoed those words a long time ago and are in the crowd that has left many S & P points on the table..
    and anyone that has participated in that philosophy is wearing the dunce cap -
    OR please give ALL a reason and explanation for why they wouldnt be --
    leaving 600 points and raising cash ...

     

    sorry---- thats more frustration towards those who have had it right ..
    10 Jul 2014, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    I have mentioned this one before in my blog --

     

    i believe (CPA) is poised to breakout of its trading range to the upside....
    http://bit.ly/TVXz2f

     

    Good luck !!
    10 Jul 2014, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    I am pleased being short on the amount of haters and doubting comments on my strategy, wherever I have commented on being short on SA.

     

    Not only am I virtually the only one commenting, on any article, who is actually short anything, but many are calling me an idiot, fool, Ect.

     

    This is even when I reveal most of my shorts are already established in bear markets -- no - where near there highs of the year!

     

    That's great! I love it and affirms I am positioned correctly both in my short picks and the correct broader market direction.

     

    The more haters the better! Bring it on.

     

    I suspect it will be the same when I turn to buy. I will be mostly all alone then, as well.

     

    Did I mention F, without the slightest correction (yet) I am beating the SPX this year?
    10 Jul 2014, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen, as they say. You can make equally dismissive comments about others' views, but if challenged, you want to run to your mommy? Feel free.

     

    I've been a high-yield value investor for more than twenty years. You think I discovered how to do this last week?
    10 Jul 2014, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "...blow off phase of this rally..."

     

    I had to catch my breath before replying, as I was laughing too hard.

     

    Blow off phase? I wish we had that little yahoo emoticon of the man rolling on the floor. Your seruious, which makes it even funnier.

     

    This market has been continuously despised. Volumes started low in 2009 and have actually declined, not increased. Money has continued to flood into cash accounts, bonds and gold. The trend lines for the SPX show a constant steady rise, with no sign or any hyperbolic accelerations or burgeoning volumes. In essence, a climb against a relentless wall of worry. Euphoric blow-offs? There's not a day that goes by without multiple new SA articles proclaiming the approaching end of the world.

     

    Yes, we're approaching the new 2008. Should happen any day now.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "Haters?"

     

    I see, if folks don't just roll over and accept your claims, and shut up while doing it, they're "haters."

     

    Here's a suggestion, albeit a tall order, perhaps: grow up.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    Delusional thoughts. Greater fool theory. Perhaps you throw darts.

     

    Challenged by fools? I'll take that as a confirmation.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    By your commentary, yes.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    Please let me clear the air about the use of the word "Haters"

     

    despite what many think , i don't "hate" the bears or anyone that disagrees with my market theories..

     

    What i do "hate" is the fact that the bullish stance and story has to be defended in the face of enormous gains after being correct..

     

    Along with that its the "hate" of the attitude expressed by many bears that anyone that has been or still is bullish are stupid, as we will sit around like idiots in a daze when the market does change trends and lose all of our money ..

     

    That "attitude" message infers stupidity and ignorance , and is constantly being tossed at the bulls , ironically the folks that have had the story right... it is that which is most "hated " .....

     

    & it also infers that those who have sat on the sidelines or "shorted" are deemed to be the masters of investing because somehow only "they" know there will be another downdraft in the market's future and are hell bent on "warning" everyone..

     

    The "hatred' of that "warning" is magnified because it is the crowd that has been wrong preaching their gospel to the crowd who has been right.

     

    At this moment in time, Its like a bunch of kindergarten kids telling the college professor that his theories on genetics has been wrong and continues to be wrong.. - and that seemingly defies logic.

     

    Dunce caps, fleecing, we'll get buried because its going to end badly, and the like , are the calling cards for the bearish view, it comes with the (bullish) turf. And quite frankly it is why i counter with my "frustration" arguments.

     

    Its not the hate for the people - its the hate of that message and the convoluted logic associated with it ..
    My mesage to the bears, short all you want, make money in the market any way you can , but do not preach to the folks that have had this market story right as if they are a pre school child..
    11 Jul 2014, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    I see. After scanning all that though ---

     

    When examining a stock like (TWTR), all time low 30, all time high 75; currently 38, but you infer I wear the dunce cap for being bearish on it?

     

    BTW I have heard that from TONS of bulls that I will be buried on my shorts on these kinds of stocks, because of them all becoming magically, massively profitable in 2019. (not TWTR -- not in that one but several others that are worse in social media)

     

    I have heard nothing but flack the last couple of months, how I don't "get it" and (YELP) is worth at least 100 / share in spite of NEVER being profitable -- and insiders selling every share allocated to them.

     

    I'm the one called a YELP "hater" for bringing these inconvenient facts up -- and the fact the stock is in a bear market, and I've done well shorting it!

     

    Am still a hater and naysayer, and don't "get it".

     

    Again -- No-where have I've said I'm short SPX. (IWM) is the key metric for me.
    11 Jul 2014, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac,
    your comment

     

    "When examining a stock like (TWTR), all time low 30, all time high 75; currently 38, but you infer I wear the dunce cap for being bearish on it?"

     

    and you were short during that fall ??.. or perhaps short when you schooled us on how the momentum trade was dead when the stock was at 30 -- that would coincide with the tirade on the momentum issues..

     

    see my point ?

     

    please lets review ,,,

     

    I didn't call you a hater - you called those with a bullish view ----- "haters' of your stance.......

     

    a naysayer -- yes of course..

     

    I never discussed (YELP) with you ,never.

     

    now that you have brought it up --

     

    I did pull up a chart - if you care to --please tell me if you are short now @ $71, and maybe your target or your stop ,

     

    I would then gladly enter a conversation on (YELP) with you..
    11 Jul 2014, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - LOL, Sec's caught up to (OTCPK:CYNK).

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Jul 2014, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Fear;

     

    lets talk about something more mainstream we have butted heads on, thats (BAC).

     

    I don't like the stock, its management, or its chart. I am short, as of yesterday. I believe you are a bull on the stock, and despite it having violated its weekly upward trendline from 2011, currently testing numerous lows and its 200 MA, and acting sickly all year, I am the "naysayer" on that stock too.

     

    Want to explain that one?
    11 Jul 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    So, here we are and I'm asked to defend the bullish case once again,, perhaps we can discuss (Yelp) in further detail first.. ?? I guess not ........

     

    but since you asked , please pull up a "WEEKLY" chart of (BAC) and show me where you believe the LT uptrend is broken it has "broken" the trend line since the low of $5 in 2011..

     

    Its right at its 50 "week" MA . and that MA is still trending UP ..

     

    perhaps at these levels it's a consolidation phase after a more than 300% move ( the stock hit a high of $18 this year. )

     

    so, yes you are in fact a naysayer.. because you wish to ONLY view the short term action, to make a bearish case.. and then declare that it is "dead" as you did when it traded under 15 ....

     

    so lets discuss (YELP) or any other shorts that you have in place --- for you to explain & compare notes ..

     

    After that ---we can switch again & i will defend a bullish case for (MU)

     

    & I will add - when you make comments and use 1 stock (LL) and then extrapolate it to the entire housing industry to add to the "bear" thesis on the market - it does fall into the naysayer category ..
    11 Jul 2014, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Remember, back in May when BAC fell below $15 and you were talking up your short on it, and I was commenting that I was selling $15 puts? Well, let's take an accounting:

     

    Any shorts initiated or puts bought when BAC was below $15 have been losers, and all the same July-expiration $15 puts I happily sold for 70-80 cents each are about to expire worthless in another week.

     

    If BAC gets near $15 again, as these expire, I repeat the exercise all over again.
    11 Jul 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    BAC is not consolidating. It has broken down and broken badly on any relative basis. It is close to "bear market" territory defined as a 20% drop from relative highs.

     

    I suppose if you wish to measure from March 2009 it is up of course -- But who cares, thats irrelevant.
    11 Jul 2014, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Lets take an accounting on your (DB) long call at 43 when you called anyone bearish on it foolish.
    11 Jul 2014, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    You're a day late, as they say.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1y411ae

     

    If you examine the overlaid one-year chart of BAC and XLF you will note that BAC spiked way above the performance of the financials index, which exhibited a rather slow, steady increase over the last year. At one point it was up over 30% for the year versus only 10% for XLF. Now, BAC has fallen back in line with the XLF (actually just barely above it) for the trailing year.

     

    The time to short BAC, for the big money, if that was one's disposition, was when it was an outperformance outlier, not, now, that it's rejoined the pack. Now, a short on BAC more likely requires an overall market move, rather than merely an adjustment in its value alone.

     

    But, I guess that should not deter you, as you believe the entire market is very overvalued and will head south in a big way. Personally, I continue to believe the "consolidation" story, so selling puts at any elevated premiums that may present themselves seems like a plan.
    11 Jul 2014, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Tack;

     

    You also said the time to short (DB) was up near 50, I believe; and that it was time to load up at 43.

     

    Now $9.00 lower.
    11 Jul 2014, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    I noted that DB's chart seemed to evidence strong support at just below $40 (April 2013). Can't get them all correct. If you are not already, you should be short the name even now, as there's no support in sight until just below $30.

     

    It wasn't and isn't a name that personally interests me.
    11 Jul 2014, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    Re : (BAC) the fact that the LT trend is still in tact is certainly relevant --

     

    A stock that has over a 300% gain can't consolidate that move??? a stock goes from 5 to 17 can't consolidate.. I wonder what your thought would be if it continued to 25 - would it then be overvalued and worthy of a short ?? You are dismissing fundamentals in your techncal picture ..

     

    The High on BAC is $17.92.. the low after that move is $14.49

     

    thats 19% off the high .. so by definition yes its close but its not in a bear market. Now isn't it surprising that it stopped & held there ??
    You are dismissing fundamentals in your technical picture .. The bear case also dismisses the psychological affect that the bad news is out and now priced in .. 
    11 Jul 2014, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    T, Mac,

     

    Lets discuss (YELP) or another short candidate to go over the merits of those types of trades..

     

    I offer candidates on the long side with what i feel are target prices .. I would be interested to view some of these "shorts" ..

     

    Not meant to be antagonistic.. lets go over and exchange views on some of these candidates ..
    11 Jul 2014, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Fine. I'm short Yelp for the second time this year.

     

    I covered in the low 50's, now back in from @ 75.

     

    What do you want to discuss on it?

     

    I'm also short currently (P) and (LNKD) again.
    11 Jul 2014, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M, FG:

     

    Techie stocks not my game, long or short.
    11 Jul 2014, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Today I added 2 more shorts. Both are a target of zero in my view. (GRPN) and (ANGI)

     

    (P) I see as perhaps worth $10 (currently 26)

     

    (YELP) is worth maybe 25-30 (currently 70)

     

    I changed my mind, made room for ANGI and GRPN by covering the banks. I'm not any more bullish, but why short something for a dollar or 2 when others might drop 50%

     

    I am also not short (AMZN) or (PCLN) anymore. Why?

     

    I only want to short the second tier, weaker players, that will be killed by the bigger fish like the above 2 or (GOOG) or (AAPL) Even (TWTR) I would rather not short right now -- as it could turn into THE news feed.

     

    I reiterate most assets I see as expensive, but some like the ones I am short, are ridiculous.

     

    My only short that is strong technically; is (Z), which has gone parabolic, but come off recently.
    11 Jul 2014, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (1126) | Send Message
     
    >I am also not short (AMZN)

     

    Amazon just released a couple of AWS products that are getting some buzz in the tech circles today (Zocalo/Cognito). Not to say these should/will influence price either way, but the publicity will certainly preclude a negative catalyst in the short term.
    11 Jul 2014, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Fundamentals?

     

    Let's see. The CEO doesn't know his own banks accounting. They have huge liability right now to the govt's lawsuit. Their interest margins are shrinking.

     

    I don't believe all of this is remotely priced in.
    11 Jul 2014, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    I like the (ANGI) & (GRPN) trades they both are in major downtrends and i have to believe that there are no real fundamentals there ..

     

    (P) 26.25 & (YELP) 70.62 - I admittedly have no position or thoughts on either, IMO, charts are in no man's land - FWIW a couple of indicators i always check do indicate that both can bounce from here .. so it will be interesting to see how that plays out ..

     

    (Z) disregarding any fundamental discussion -- Z has a strong chart - solid uptrend that would seem to be a real difficult one to press a "short" here -- even though they may be overvalued , etc , the mo is there ....
    so the obvious question is why try a short on that name. ??

     

    Thanks for sharing your ideas..
    11 Jul 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Z -- more of a fundamental trade. Stock has been heavily shorted. Tied to housing, obviously, and a clear momentum name. Suppose I am both negative on momentum names but also getting more and more wary on housing itself.

     

    I note the WFC comments on housing, and the continued lagging performance of home builders.
    That's in addition to LL's and OCN comments.

     

    My other trade F, is purely fundamental, and that is short (VRX). This story stinks. They are only able to grow earnings through acquisitions laden with debt. In short, it's a ponzi scheme in essence. Take a look.
    The chart is rolling over, as well.

     

    Back to (yelp). One must ask, if the prospects are so good, why the CEO or his team refuse to hold any shares personally. That's zero CEO holdings.
    11 Jul 2014, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    More yelp. These guys are real winners.

     

    What other company -- essentially shakes down their own customer base -- by threatening to highlight negative reviews on their site -- on those businesses that refuse to buy advertising from them.

     

    They have the capability to bury positive reviews, and highlight negative reviews on their site.

     

    Sound like a great business to invest in?
    11 Jul 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I agree there is seemingly nothing "behind" YELP -
    I have seen their site and reviews , honestly cant understand the attraction....

     

    Problem is and you know this -- the momentum on some of these names can run you over..

     

    At some point , these will crater and be great shorts .. I will agree with you there as well..
    11 Jul 2014, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    (VRX) I have heard the name but really not familiar at all ,, they are the company trying to buy allergan ???

     

    chart wise -- mmmm , I think its 50 -50 whether it will in fact really roll over from here --

     

    Of course if the fundamentals aren't there and you have the correct story - then that brings the odds in your favor..

     

    Good luck ...
    11 Jul 2014, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Yelp, and probably more than a few other tech wonders, are seemingly held up in thin air by not much more than imagination. The entire implausibility of many of these businesses and how or why they rise, stay there, or when they'll fall is one reason why I never play with them, whether going up or down.

     

    To me, they're just market roulette wheels, where one doesn't know if or when red, green or double zero might pop up. One can make a bundle in some mindless move or just as easily get trampled.

     

    Rather than investing, it seems much more like pure speculative gambling, more akin to Las Vegas than Wall Street.
    11 Jul 2014, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    If you examine the charts, all except (Z) are broken charts. Momentum appears broken. Buybacks are slowing down. Ipo's are increasing. All this provides competition for limited dollars.

     

    My primary bet is not necessarily a large SPX selloff but a move away from these low quality names, basis all (IWM). That index is key for me and it has rolled over even as the Nasdaq melts higher.
    11 Jul 2014, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    On VRX
    11 Jul 2014, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    Per the economist -- heard of it?

     

    --- corporate net debt levels are very close to all time highs.

     

    So much for the flood of cash and no debt you claim.

     

    Suppose the economist is unreliable compared to your claims.
    11 Jul 2014, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Is that for me?

     

    When did I, or anyone, say there was no debt?

     

    Cash is at record levels. Corporate debt is high, but so what? There are also record cash levels on corporate balance sheets, and that debt was issued long term and at low yields. This is bad?

     

    It still remains that of the large increase in the money supply much more of that capital has found its way into Treasuries, debt issues and cash than equity. The imbalance, and slowly changing preferences, is an ongoing reason why market downside moves can't gain any traction, especially with low market volumes. We've now seen this pattern too many times to count in the last couple years. How often must it repeat itself until the phenomenon is appreciated?
    12 Jul 2014, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    Tell you what. VRX has issued lots of debt.

     

    I suggest you buy it.
    12 Jul 2014, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    The volume today is low, correct?

     

    Not much panic going on. Buyers came in to buy the stocks that were down at the open....that is good for those of us that think there is little to get worked up about.

     

    So when you look at the %, the Dow is down 82 at the moment. About half a %. S&P is down half of that.

     

    That's not enough for me to get excited about buying (or selling) anything.

     

    I'm still waiting for better "sale" prices.

     

    Dividends are being paid, so not considering selling those stocks.

     

    For those looking to add to DGI positions, the open was a good time for that.

     

    The market could get more exciting as we move into earnings in August.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    So yeah, Portugal/Spain/Greece ---- what is new with these countries??? Who ever thought they were "safe" places to invest in the first place?

     

    No wonder the markets are coming back. Might even end up positive on the day, once the nervous nellies get a reality check.

     

    Yair, let us know how you are....hopefully things will settle down over there soon.
    10 Jul 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    BSF,

     

    Lots of people think they are perfectly safe!
    A recent Greek auction received 20 B in bids for 3 billion in bonds -- and went off at like 5%!
    10 Jul 2014, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    M, I would really hate to be a German citizen. It's practically the only country in the Eurozone that has a real economy....and yes it would anger me to be responsible for those sh*tty Greeks, Portuguese, etc. Not to mention....the Frenchies!

     

    Well we have our problems here in the US too.

     

    Makes complete sense to me why my relative moved to Switzerland out of the Eurozone....she was lucky to have maintained her Swiss citizenship.

     

    However, she now lives in one of the most expensive places in Europe.

     

    At least it is a beautiful place.
    11 Jul 2014, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Putin is trying to be nice now since sanctions are affecting Russia's economy

     

    http://cnb.cx/1rYSzbW
    10 Jul 2014, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Well, I've read everything ... like usual, learned plenty... but I'll refrain from posting a neophyte opinion... :)
    10 Jul 2014, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . On indexing, this may be of interest:

     

    "5 common myths about indexing" by Vanguard (obviously not a neutral source :). )
    http://bit.ly/TVBUHv

     

    Myth #1: Indexing only works in "efficient" markets
    Myth #2: Who wants to be "average"?
    Myth #3: You get what you pay for—Higher cost + Higher ratings = Higher returns
    Myth #4: Market-cap weighting overweights the overvalued
    Myth #5: Index funds underperform in bear markets

     

    They have lots of graphs and data to explain.

     

    Any opinions?
    10 Jul 2014, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    I like Vanguard. My biggest holding is vtsmx. I like that most of their funds are low cost.

     

    I think indexing in their funds makes sense for stocks (or any other low cost funds). As long as the stock market continues to go up over long periods of time like it always has.

     

    Fixed income funds I'm not so sure about. If you own an individual bond, you have a guarantee that you will get repaid the principal whenever it matures (excepting bankruptcy and such, but even then you should get something). You have no such thing in a fund. Rising rates and such will hurt the value of bonds or any other fixed income investment, but with an individual bond you can wait until maturity whilst with a fund you can't wait until maturity and the manager may make a boo-boo and sell bonds at the worst possible time.

     

    Anywho, my distracted and simplistic thoughts for the night.
    10 Jul 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    From Bespoke group:

     

    on the recent AAII survey

     

    While bullish sentiment only saw a small decline, bearish sentiment spiked to 28.65% from 22.39%. This was the largest one week increase since April 10th. This week's trend in bullish and bearish sentiment readings is a continuation of the trend that has been in place for much of this bull market. Individual investors are slow to embrace the bull, but at the first signs of trouble are quick to exit."
    10 Jul 2014, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    2 ways to fleece the sheeple:

     

    A) get them to buy crap you are selling (Cynk)
    B) soothe them not to sell, while you are still selling.

     

    Watch cnbc as we start to go down. B) will be in full force.
    10 Jul 2014, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Mac,

     

    The bears are the only folks that have been fleeced .....

     

    end of story..
    10 Jul 2014, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    That include the bears like me on stocks like (TWTR) etc?
    10 Jul 2014, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Yep
    10 Jul 2014, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    And exactly how does that work with TWTR near the lows of the year?
    10 Jul 2014, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    (TWTR) just ran from 30 to 40 --- a nifty 33% gain
    (actually it was $29.50 to $42.50 )
    for all i know you were short then. like many others were.

     

    lets recap --- after all, we do know that the $30 price was hit during the "momo sell off" that you were very vocal about..... I do recall that tirade .......

     

    it was when the RUT was "going to crater and take the entire S & p with it-" - I believe that's what we were all told..

     

    & Please don't tell us the shorts covered at 30 and re-shorted at $42 --

     

    MMMM,,,, sorry not with the rhetoric that was given to us about the "garbage" momentum names -- that simply won't fly ..

     

    So yes the bears were indeed fleeced in (TWTR) also ..
    10 Jul 2014, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    An excerpt from Josh Brown's blog:

     

    Are you the best trader ever?

     

    Imagine you’re John Templeton, George Soros, and Paul Tudor Jones all rolled up into the worlds greatest trader. Since 1990 you were able to beat the S&P 500 every year by forty percent. If the market was up 10%, you were up 14% and if the market fell 10%, you were down only 7.15%

     

    Beating the S&P 500 in any given year is a challenge. Beating the S&P 500 every year for nearly a quarter century is extraordinary. Beating the S&P 500 every year for nearly a quarter century by forty percent is all but impossible.

     

    Typically when people look at performance numbers for active trading strategies, they look at gross returns and don’t pay attention to taxes. I wanted to see just how damaging paying taxes on short term gains would be to a taxable portfolio.

     

    Going back to 1990, had you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 and held on through 2013, you would have amassed $76,266 (assuming taxes are paid annually on dividends*).

     

    If the best trader of all time invested $10,000 in 1990 and beat the S&P 500 every year by forty percent, net of taxes he would have amassed only $69,197, less than the buy and hold investor (not even factoring in trading costs).

     

    These numbers are pretty astounding but I want to emphasize that the point of this exercise is not to suggest that trading is for fools, or that it can’t be done. I want to demonstrate that taxes on short term gains can be a huge impediment to accumulating wealth. Had the best trader of all time achieved these same returns in a tax deferred account, he would have amassed almost $192,000!

     

    Nobody can argue that buy and hold isn’t rife with drawdowns, does nothing to stroke your ego and is extremely boring. However, for taxable accounts, you’d be hard pressed to find a better alternative.

     

    Case closed..
    10 Jul 2014, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (4936) | Send Message
     
    "only when the tide goes out, do you see who's been swimming naked"

     

    --- warren Buffett.

     

    Me thinks theres a lot of naked swimmers out there.

     

    One more quote:
    When the ducks are quacking, feed them. (via ipo's)
    10 Jul 2014, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    Me thinks Warren isn't net "short" here or for that matter hasn't been ..

     

    It seems he's doing pretty well.. ;)
    10 Jul 2014, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13760) | Send Message
     
    Warren's never been net short or net in-cash, ever.
    10 Jul 2014, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5678) | Send Message
     
    Somehow I cant picture him in a dunce cap either..:)
    10 Jul 2014, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (4653) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    That's way too much scrolling for me... so here's a new chapter #32!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Jul 2014, 09:48 PM Reply Like
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