Seeking Alpha

Land of Milk an...'s  Instablog

Land of Milk and Honey
Send Message
Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #33 194 comments
    Jul 30, 2014 11:25 AM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #32. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #30: seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land... (I've been putting in the right links, but sometimes this doesn't seem to work correctly. You can always go to my profile, then to my instablogs, and find the latest.)

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!. Several have their own instablogs with their ideas outlined well!

    Disclosure: The author is long SPY, IWM, DIA, QQQ, LINE, CVX.

    Additional disclosure: ...and more... ask me if you're curious!

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (194)
Track new comments
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - End of last chapter, the GDP was up big time... stocks down a bit on worrying about it... and a lot of ideas of what to consider for investing at the moment... so welcome to a new chapter...

     

    Link to the last one, if it's helpful:
    http://bit.ly/1AyPMc2
    30 Jul, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For newcomer's, we've moved onto chapter 34. Please come join us there as well!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Aug, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1245) | Send Message
     
    Oils are looking good (BP, TOT, etc.) Russia is providing a nice dip to pick up shares or start a position.

     

    My 2c
    30 Jul, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I just did a 1/2 starting position into (NYSE:TOT). Like that dividend 4.7%.
    30 Jul, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    Tack has stated it best with his comments in the last chapter.

     

    Keep an eye on those companies that are doing well, amid any market weakness now or in the future days /weeks..

     

    for the moment --- Notice how the nasdaq has not reversed , and the RUT which has been weak has now shown some resilience in the last 2 trading days.. as it is also in the green for now

     

    to me these are signs of a churning market - as traders bounce form one sector to the other in search of profit..

     

    the momentum names bottomed two weeks ago when many --- hated them
    some recent moves
    (NYSE:LNKD) from 156 to 186
    (NYSE:YELP) from 66 to 74 , (NYSE:TWTR) 36 to 47 , (NASDAQ:Z) 122 to 147
    30 Jul, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I've noticed too... IWM is up on otherwise down index moves, (and down on the updays), but definitely showing strength poking through.
    30 Jul, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    its been that way for a while now - a sector or a good name may get hit, but money finds a way to come back into them ,, & if it is a good name they then continue their uptrend..
    & that truly defines how a bull market in a particular stock , sector or the overall market acts..
    30 Jul, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    I am comforted after reading commentary in a "doomer" blog here on SA that "they " don't believe the GDP number...

     

    Tack mentioned it before & i agree ---sometimes watching this stuff is comical --

     

    & a good laugh is a good thing ;)
    30 Jul, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (691) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    About 11 days ago you asked me to provide any ideas for stocks regarding moving. Currently procrastinating packing for an hour or three, so:

     

    (NASDAQ:UHAL) - getting the moving truck from these guys tomorrow. Looks like it'll be half the price of Penske.

     

    (NYSE:PAG) - called Penske this morning and they wanted $600 for two days use (we're moving 60 miles from here). No thank you. But they told me the middle of the month there would be much cheaper rates, so my next off-work rotation I'll probably use them.

     

    I have no idea if either company is financially sound and am not inclined to check them out at the current time, but Amerco owns U-Haul, two insurance companies and a real estate company.

     

    Penske has transportation rentals, car dealerships, and some other stuff.

     

    If the economy continues to improve, then more people are more likely to move for whatever reason, rent a car or something else. And more kids are more likely to use them to go to college (I suspect that's why Penske is in short supply in my area and thus is jacking the rates up).

     

    What other anecdotal stuff can I provide? We're better off financially than a year ago, so why not buy some furniture and donate the crap we've picked up along the way and tried to fix up ourselves? I still have the coffee table that I picked up at the Salvation Army for $10 and spent $80 in epoxy resin to put a nice finish and decorations on and don't plan on getting rid of, but my Laz-E-Boy and the couch are beyond repair.

     

    But, I'm damned if I'm going to pay a retail price. I went by Costco a couple of days ago and they had some generic leather recliners for $400 or some wrap-around couch set like you'd expect to see in a strip-club for $1100. Meh. So I googled. Some places are charging over $1000 for a Laz-E-Boy. No. Couch prices are insane.

     

    What I found close by was a company called BrandSmartUSA. Unfortunately, it's a private company. It also has wonderfully cheap prices - better than Costco or Sam's. We're going by there tomorrow with our U-haul to pick up a couple of generic Laz-E-Boys and maybe a bed and maybe a flat screen (my 11 year old RCA has to go).

     

    So it's kind of like a Dollar Store for appliances and such. Perhaps there's a nationwide equivalent that's publicly traded? On Monday I bought a washer and dryer online at Lowes for $315 a piece - if they hadn't been 30% off, then Brandsmart would have been the next cheapest.

     

    I had the misfortune of graduating in late 2008 and getting my license in early 2009, so I didn't get the line of work I wanted due to elderly nurses finding their 401k's had evaporated and kept working, but I wonder how many other people are out there like me who have been conditioned over the last five years or so to live cheaply by circumstance and that might benefit low-end and wholesale companies?
    30 Jul, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » User7

     

    Thanks for all the ideas!

     

    Also good to know about appliances. I've been hearing odd noises from a few of mine lately, hum. BrandSmartUSA, I'll keep it in mind.

     

    Good luck with the packing! I've noticed Uhauls plenty when driving. I've seen only 1 Penske. Car rentals aren't doing well overall. Lots of business but too many expenses. So Uhaul may be positioned better.

     

    For furniture did you try Big Lots? Nothing hugely exciting, but good prices, and at least some of the pieces appealed to me. (I didn't check quality.)

     

    You job hunted in a tough environment for sure. Dollar stores have been doing well for a reason. Maybe though, you'll be entering a phase where you can upgrade a bit! -- and middle stores will start benefiting.

     

    Any one else have ideas in these areas?
    31 Jul, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (691) | Send Message
     
    Hello LMH,

     

    Only picked up our generic recliners at BrandSmart. Leather and the salesman knocked them down to $250 a piece. Don't seem like as good of quality as my Laz-E-Boy, but the wooden base on that shattered last year (it is twenty years old). The new ones are comfortable. Woman and I checked out electronics but held off reasoning that we could come back later in the day.

     

    I was somewhat disturbed when I saw the forklift pull up to the loading bay that one of the boxes was in the "down" position like in old cartoons. The guy didn't even blink when he set them down and put them in the back of the u-haul. One box with an arrow up and one down. This is the main reason I don't want to purchase electronics or appliances there - cushy furniture holds up a bit better to that type of abuse and who knows what happens in the warehouse where the customer can't see it.

     

    I was also uneasy about their return policy and warranties and reviews on electronics and appliances, so will either use Sam's or Costco for a new flat screen.

     

    New bed came from Sam's. Cheaper by a bit than Costco.

     

    No Penske? Must be a regional thing - I've used them for the last two moves and have been pleased. Vehicles seem to be fairly well maintained. Passed two on the road today.

     

    No Big Lots within a reasonable drive, but I remember that sometimes you could find neat stuff there.
    31 Jul, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3692) | Send Message
     
    We got a sofa at Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) for our bedroom (it's a big bedroom). Very nice. It was $299, and we went on a 20% off weekend. Score!
    31 Jul, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (691) | Send Message
     
    I hate you. ;)
    31 Jul, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7

     

    Lol. You always know things go on in the back room... but not seeing it, feels so much better :). I agree, a couch is a couch - you can tell what you've got. Electronics is a different purchase....

     

    On couches, I had a friend years ago who married into big money (dot.com that her husband timed well starting up & getting out). They had this couch with down which felt fantastic (in ski country). I never knew couches could have a huge pricetag -- and a something to make it desirable to pay it. Personally, I'll save my money instead, but who knew?

     

    Good luck with your moving, packing, adjusting...!!

     

    JBT - wow :)!
    3 Aug, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    As a caveat to what I am about to say, I would note that my training as a stock market technician began and ended when I touched the cover of a thick book on that subject, never opening it to this day.

     

    Looking at a number of regional bank stock charts, which is a habit of mine, I have noticed what appears to be a triple bottom formation. This appears to an untrained eye to be the case for the main ETF for this sector too:

     

    http://yhoo.it/PRwADn;range=1y

     

    For the 4th time over the past two years, I bought back (NASDAQ:TRMK) this morning. Its chart looks like a triple bottom is being put in place too:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1AzncY8;range=1y

     

    TRMK reported a second quarter E.P.S. of $.49 per share, a return on average tangible equity of 13.90%, and a return on average assets of 1.10%.Loans held for investment increased at an annualized rate of 17.6% in the second quarter.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1AzncYe

     

    As discussed in a 7/19/14 post, I completed my third round trip by selling my TRMK shares at $24.63, where I also discussed some bond and preferred stock eliminations and pares.

     

    http://bit.ly/1AzncYi

     

    The earnings report convinced me to try again. Also regional banks are doing better than the market today based on the rise in rates and better than expected GDP report. Better economic conditions means more loans and less loan losses. Higher rates can improve net interest margins.

     

    Another recent triple bottom add was BHLB:
    http://yhoo.it/1AzneiI;range=1y

     

    I sold two equity REITs this morning including DLR which had jumped over 10 points since my purchased discussed in the 3/3/14 blog.
    30 Jul, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    Apparently all of my chart links take you to the maximum chart period. To see the triple bottoms, it is necessary to shorten the time span to one year.

     

    One possible long/short idea would be to buy KRE and sell XLU short. I am not set up to short or to buy options.

     

    When I was looking at regional bank charts back in 2006, most of them were rolling over then. Tops for many of them occurred in late 2005 and into 2006. In retrospect, those topping formations, followed by declines during 2007 before the market turned south, were early warning signs of trouble ahead.
    30 Jul, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1682) | Send Message
     
    My favorite long/short is long ILF and short ECH. I am currently in this trade.
    31 Jul, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: Are you basing that long/short idea on technicals?

     

    Neither long/short idea is working today. Both longs are down more than the shorts.

     

    As of a few minutes ago:

     

    ILF -2.22%
    ECH -1.34%

     

    KRE -1.15%
    XLU -.68

     

    I would attribute the better performance today for XLU to the market's dive and that ETF's status as a bond substitute. Bonds are down less than stocks today. My long short idea is premised more on a fundamental big picture view that the economy is improving and rates will rise, making XLU relatively unattractive compared to KRE.

     

    If there was a 15%+ downdraft in utility stocks, I might add a couple. I only own (NYSE:DPG) now which owns utility and telecommunications stocks as well as MLPs.
    31 Jul, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1682) | Send Message
     
    South: Yes I base this trade on the 200 day moving average and relative strength which I use for a lot of my positions.

     

    ILF is up over 5% for the last 4 months and ECH is down over 4% for the last 4 months. ILF is above it's 200 day average and ECH is below.

     

    It is not working today but a trend has been established. For how long, who knows!

     

    Also, I am long the Jan 2016 30 call on FXI. It cost me very little premium when I made this trade.
    31 Jul, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    I don't own any utilities. What do you think of (NYSE:DPG) adding at this point? It's down 3% today with 8% yield. (I'm looking up NAV, etc. now.)
    1 Aug, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I own 300 DPG shares, excluding the shares purchased with the dividends. I am only reinvesting the dividends for a 100 share lot bought in my ROTH IRA.

     

    I am not a buyer at the current price. I was leaning toward selling 100 shares in a taxable account earlier this week. I decided to keep all DPG shares for their income generation, at least for the time being. Also, I will always keep securities in my portfolio that are inconsistent with my future predictions, recognizing of course that I am not an omnipotent being who is capable of predicting the future. So I recognize that my interest rate forecast may end up being wrong. Consequently, I own investment grade, long term bonds that would benefit from a Japan type scenario in the U.S.

     

    My DPG shares were bought at

     

    1. Bought 100 of the Stock CEF DPG at $17.30

     

    http://bit.ly/XhCr1l

     

    3. Bought 100 DPG at $17.31

     

    http://bit.ly/SW3Ztw

     

    7. Added 100 of DPG at $18.58

     

    http://bit.ly/1okcq3x

     

    The last purchase was made on 1/30/14 as shown in the snapshot in the previous link. Even with the recent dip, I am still up a lot this year on that 100 share lot.

     

    My concern is that the securities owned by this CEF will decline when and if interest rates start to rise. There was a good run in net asset value during the first half of 2014 as interest rates fell.

     

    Also as I discussed in another recent post, this CEF owned a lot of POM shares when Pepco agreed to be acquired by EXC earlier this year.

     

    http://bit.ly/1nZ9auW

     

    And another holding, Integrys, rose after agreeing to be acquired by Wisconsin Energy.

     

    http://prn.to/1nZ9aLa

     

    The fund maintains a significant exposure to MLPs which have also done well this year. There is also significant exposure to telecommunications stocks including WIN and Frontier, both of whom popped this week after WIN announced that some of its operations/assets would be shifted into a REIT.

     

    Last SEC Filed Shareholder Report:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1nZ9865

     

    The current discount to net asset value is -11.36. The distribution yield at yesterday's closing price was 6.43%:

     

    http://bit.ly/1nZ7WQm

     

    Overall, I have a favorable opinion of this CEF, another reason to keep it. An investor can obtain with one security a broad exposure to electric utlity and telecommunication stocks as well as infrastructure MLPs (without the K-1 headache).
    1 Aug, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    I just posted below, I decided to wait and look at utilities in general more.

     

    I get a favorable impression of the CEF. But with 2% fee at 6.4% yield, it's not enough of a buffer for what interest rates might do to buy at current prices. It's had a huge run up!

     

    Thanks for all the details, that's helpful.
    1 Aug, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    LMH: DPG uses leverage, currently around 23%. The expense number includes interest costs which is something to keep in mind when short term rates start to rise. That number will be going up.

     

    The net operating expenses with leverage costs, as reported at page 15 of the last SEC filed shareholder report, was 1.26% which included a temporary and annually declining waiver of some expenses as noted in note 3 of that report.
    1 Aug, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    The fact that I don't fully understand what you wrote, tells me I'm glad I decided to wait on buying it :).

     

    I wasn't sure what the leverage is about, but I've seen other funds use it to increase movement (either way). So it adds risk. Interest costs are their loans, so I assume it's not fixed rate loans.

     

    1.26% isn't a very big number if that's their expenses all together.
    1 Aug, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    Leveraged CEFs borrow money short term and use those funds to buy more securities. Short term rates are abnormally now due to ZIRP but will start to rise incrementally when the FED starts to raise the federal funds rate next year. Leverage increases risk when the assets bought with borrowed funds go down in value, particularly when the cost of those borrowed funds are going up. In that later scenario, the discount is likely to be rising too creating a triple whammy.

     

    Over the past five years or so, leverage has been beneficial in that the assets bought with borrowed funds have gone up and the fund has earned increased income representing the difference between its cost of funds and the yields derived from securities bought with those funds. This has allowed a leveraged fund to pay a greater dividend than one hypothetically owning the same securities without using any leverage.

     

    You can see the differences in yields in bond CEFs between those who use and do not use leverage. CSI is an example of one bond investment grade bond CEF which does not use leverage.

     

    Many investors who buy CEFs do not spend any time reviewing shareholder reports and view themselves as experts in the field.

     

    The SEC filed shareholder reports are linked at CEFConnect. Click the "All" tab and scroll until links to the sponsor's website and SEC filings appear on the right hand side.

     

    The last SEC Filed Shareholder Report for DPG can be found at

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1nZ9865

     

    I referenced note 3 which shows that the operating expense ratio is benefiting from a sponsor's waiver which is declining. So the expense ratio, excluding interest costs, will be going up some in the coming years. Page 18

     

    I also look at the following:

     

    Current Unrealized Profit/Loss:

     

    As of 4/30/14, DPG had a total cost of $904+M and a market value of owned securities of $1.151B: Page 8 and Note 6 at page 20.

     

    Part of the dividend can be supported from realized capital gains to avoid a return of capital. I much prefer funds that earn their dividends. It is okay with me that a fund earns the dividend, and classifies part of a distribution as a return of capital due to sheltering long term capital gains with prior loss carryforwards that were realized before I owned the fund, which was the case with DPG. During the last fiscal year, as noted at page 20, the fund utilized prior losses of $24+M to offset capital gains which resulted in a $20+M ROC classification for dividends paid during that year. That is what I call a benign return of capital. That part of the dividend classified as ROC is not taxed when paid but reduces the cost basis by an equivalent amount.

     

    I also see that the fund writes some call options.

     

    Note 7 contains information about borrowing costs.

     

    Quote: The Fund has a Credit Agreement (the “Agreement”) with a commercial bank (the “Bank”) that allows the Fund to borrow cash from the Bank, up to a limit of $340,000,000. Borrowings under the Agreement are collateralized by investments of the Fund. Interest is charged at LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) plus an additional percentage rate on the amount borrowed and a percentage on the undrawn balance if amount borrowed falls below $170,000,000 (the commitment fee). There were no commitment fees paid or accrued for the six months ended April 30, 2014. The Agreement is renewable and can also be converted to a 1-year fixed term facility.

     

    For the six months ended April 30, 2014, the average daily borrowings under the Agreement and the weighted daily average interest rate were $260,000,000 and 0.97%, respectively. At April 30, 2014, the Fund had outstanding borrowings of $260,000,000 at a rate of 0.96% for a one-month term."

     

    I would urge everyone to go beyond the information contained at CEFConnect when making investment decisions in this area.

     

    Morningstar also has basic information which can be accessed by non-subscribers:

     

    http://bit.ly/1nZm3oP

     

    I would also look at the "performance" numbers. As shown at Morningstar, the total return numbers for DPG in 2013 and YTD, based on net asset value, were much better than the utility index. It would not be fair to compare DPG to a broad stock index.
    1 Aug, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    That explains a lot of things.

     

    - I'd wondered how a utility CEF could pay 6+% when most utilities are 2-3%. The answer is leverage! And you've listed factors that will effect that (negatively) in the next couple years as interest rates may/will move.

     

    - That fee being waived, and that waiver being graduated out, explains some more.

     

    The rest of the info is informative. I'll have to re-read a bit to take it all in :).

     

    While (NYSE:DPG)'s done better than the comparable index (utility indices), it's used a few methods, I'd want see how they play out during rising rates, before going into DPG. A 15% corrrection would be nice, but even then it'd depend on the macro environment. It all does speak well for their management's skills.
    3 Aug, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG, EB

     

    Intriguing sounding... so you've spotted a trend and figuring it will continue. I'm going to post the symbols in ()'s so I can find out what. I'm curious to see why they'd be paired trades rather than thought of individually.

     

    long (NYSEARCA:KRE)
    short (NYSEARCA:XLU)

     

    long (NYSEARCA:ILF)
    short (NYSEARCA:ECH)

     

    (NYSEARCA:FXI) is China if I remember.
    3 Aug, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » EB

     

    Would you consider (NYSEARCA:ILF) a continued long play all by itself?
    3 Aug, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1682) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I would consider ILF by itself. I track 40 exchange traded and mutual funds and ILF was in the top ten based on 4 month relative strength. My approach is to stay with the top ten funds and out of or short the bottom ten.

     

    The funds I track include bond funds, real estate funds and commodity funds in addition to stock funds. I overweight the top ten and underweight others so my asset allocation is changing with the market.
    3 Aug, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    The industrial sector has underperformed the S & P 500 this year. If conditions continue to improve worldwide, ramping up in the second half and accelerating in 2015, this sector may start to gather some momentum. It has been dragged down by the poor performance of GE which has a 10%+ weighting in industrial sector ETFs. I own 531+ GE shares with an average cost near $20.

     

    While I have not discussed it yet, I sold the Fidelity Consumer Staples (NYSEARCA:FSTA) at $27.36 (snapshot will be in next Saturday's post). I noticed some weakness in those stocks. I already own several stocks in that sector, including KO which broke through its 200 day SMA to the downside. I re-initiated a KO position in March 2009 and will keep my 265+ shares for their dividend growth. I nibbled today in (NYSEARCA:FIDU) which is Fidelity's Industrial sector ETF:

     

    http://bit.ly/1AzVvhT

     

    The expense ratio is .12% and Fidelity charges no commission. Through 7/9/14, YTD return was .64% vs. the S & P 500 at 7.78%.

     

    I would be reading regional bank reports even if I was not investing in that sector. I get a pretty good snapshot of what is happening around the country. The bank that I referenced above, TRMK, is headquartered in Jackson, MS. with branches scattered over other southern states including TN. My banks lend to consumers and small businesses.

     

    My little bank in Maine (NYSEMKT:BHB), which recently underwent a 3 for 2 split, reported a 20.4% increase in E.P.S. Y-O-Y after the bell today. E.P.S. was $.65, up from $.54 and better than the $.57 estimate.

     

    http://bit.ly/1AzVvi0

     

    I know own just 75 shares but have an unrealized gain in that one of almost $600 (snapshot will be in next update for the RB basket)
    30 Jul, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    South

     

    i put the symbols u posted into the chart system i use and came up with the same bottoming pattern and it would appear that a base has been put in ..

     

    so your untrained eye is still pretty good.

     

    I would also agree with your conclusion-- long KRE / short xlu ..
    30 Jul, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    (NASDAQ:MU)'s way down BHs at $30.50? Stocktalk someone posted that Samsung announced it'll be building competition?

     

    I added at $30.94.
    31 Jul, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L.

     

    from the newswire GS reports

     

    Goldman said increased DRAM supply an incremental negative for Micron
    Goldman said Samsung's increased DRAM bit supply growth forecast is an incremental negative for Micron (NASDAQ:MU) while increased capex to supply Line 17 with DRAM is a positive for SPE companies such as Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX).

     

    I believe this is a repeat of what Samsung said a while back ---in that they were "contemplating" building a facility -- .. which would increase supply

     

    if memory serves me -- that wont come on line until 2016
    and the key word was "contemplating "

     

    I'll see if i can find the original samsung story..

     

    A knee jerk reaction-- if you sold the calls - its a gift ..

     

    31 Jul, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . FG

     

    How is it a gift to have sold the calls? I did sell for .81. I was thinking of buying back lower if the calls are still lower at open. Then I can sell the (NASDAQ:MU) at any point it rises a lot and not have to wait till Aug 22.

     

    Looked like knee jerk to me, so I bought shares to round out my position.
    31 Jul, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    From Sterne agee -

     

    i love these "battle of the brokers" reports - lol

     

    Micron SanDisk have positive read through from Samsung, says Sterne Agee
    Sterne Agee reported that Samsung said its 2H14 DRAM bit growth would be limited, while its 2015 bit growth will drop versus 2014. The firm sees this guidance as "a major positive" for Micron (NASDAQ:MU) and SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK). It keeps Buy ratings on both names.

     

    a gift relating to the trade that i mentioned the other day - --if stock stays below 32.50 on Aug 16 u keep the 3+ % gift - for holding 22 days and have the stock to either stay long or write another call against..
    31 Jul, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Tburns91
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    I'm listening to the samsung conference call and i'm hearing them say that they'll outpace dram supply growth at high 40 percents while market supply should increase low 30's.
    31 Jul, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . FG or anyone - thoughts on this by Tburns?

     

    I'm not sure what that means (Tburns, I'm a relative newbie here - a bunch of regular posters have much more experience).
    31 Jul, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    tburns

     

    welcome -

     

    So samsung will hike THEIR production -
    can an investor then assume that it doesn't reflect global production increasing by 40 % ?

     

    further implying that DRAM pricing will at least remain stable ..
    31 Jul, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    tburns

     

    Also take a look at the (LCRX) lam research call today as they stated DRAM demand is vibrant ....

     

    Connect the dots _ samsung has no incentive to raise supply and crush prices as that would be a windfall for AAPL -- their hated rival ..

     

    as of now my bullish stance on MU remains the same --
    31 Jul, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tburns91
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Well in an industry when you have one player hiking supply beyond broad industry supply you might see the other players follow suit. Essentially samsung is saying "i'm gonna produce more and capture the better prices... make sure you guys don't follow suit or we'll lose this pricing environment!" Now I'm hoping that samsung acts a bit more rationally than it seems and they stick to their "original strategy of flexible investment"
    31 Jul, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tburns91
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    the other explanation though, and seems reasonable, is that samsung is investing for future incremental bit growth. i.e. the market is expected to grow in the low 30's this year, next year and continuing on so samsung is getting ahead of the market by investing to be able to bring on supply when appropriate.
    31 Jul, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    A couple interesting comments along the same line, that it's not in Samsung's favor to play this game.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jul, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TB

     

    Our posts crossed in the mail. ...that slow future investment makes the most sense, it seems, to Samsung. ...and won't effect (NASDAQ:MU) at least in the next few years.
    31 Jul, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    the original report on samsung and its "possible" , "maybe "facility -
    the operative words -- "thinking" and 2015 ...

     

    my takeway--- DRAM prices seem to be at the very least 'stable" if not higher..

     

    Digitimes recently reported Samsung is thinking of building a new DRAM fab in 2015, as industry consolidation and strong mobile and server-related demand keep prices high. The site also reported spot prices for 4Gb DDR3 DRAM chips could rise to $4.80-$5.00 in Q3, after rallying to an 18-month high of $4.35 in late June.
    31 Jul, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Definitely seems like over sell. Too bad in the down environment today, I didn't wait - it's down to $30.15 now. I bought back the call option (slight gain). So when it comes back up, I can sell stock any time, or sell a call again.

     

    If Samsung is going to build this expensive a facility, they'll make sure DRAM prices will make it worthwhile first.
    31 Jul, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Thoughts on the Chicago PMI that seems to be triggering a sell off?

     

    July Chicago PMI: 52.6 vs. 63.2 consensus, 62.6 in June.

     

    Totally in contrast to yesterday's GDP

     

    "The surprise fall calls into question the sustainability of the recovery, says MNI Indicators' Philip Uglow"
    31 Jul, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I believe there are more important negatives today, including the following:

     

    1. Yet another Argentina default

     

    2. A continued rise in longer term interest rates even with the market's decline

     

    3. Eurostat reported the Euro area inflation was up only .4% annually in July and unemployment was at 11.5%. Both of those numbers combined are worrisome 5+ years after the Near Depression ended.

     

    http://bit.ly/WFDteS

     

    4. A number of Dow stocks have recently broken below their 200 day SMA lines including such diverse companies like KO and UTX.

     

    UTX Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/1s74vpW

     

    GE Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/1s74u5k

     

    MCD Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/1s74vq2

     

    KO Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/1s74u5p

     

    I mentioned in a prior comment above that KO broke its 200 day SMA line yesterday.

     

    The DJIA broke its 50 day SMA line today:
    http://yhoo.it/wDxIXs;range=1y

     

    I am continuing to take a cautionary stance with net selling, though I will quit selling on a day like today or if the downtrend continues.
    31 Jul, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    After publishing this comment, I reviewed the Suncor (NYSE:SU) earnings report today and decided to harvest my long term capital gain for shares bought at $28.87.

     

    That report is discussed in this SA article:

     

    http://bit.ly/1qNtGAB

     

    Since I have built up my CAD stash significantly with recent selling, I may elect to buy this one back on the Toronto exchange using CADs when and if there is a 20% correction from my sale's price today.

     

    The Labor Department reported that labor costs increased at the fastest rate during the last quarter since the fall of 2008.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1qNtEIW

     

    That could be viewed as potentially adding to inflation pressures.

     

    The PCE price index, released as part of the GDP report yesterday, rose at an annual rate of 2.3% last quarter.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1qN...
    31 Jul, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . SG

     

    #4 makes it look like a correction may really trigger.

     

    On #3, do you find the numbers worrisome for possible economic slowdown yourself... or are you saying they're generally something the market is reacting to.
    31 Jul, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    i don't believe anyone ( including myself ) can take one data point and start to imply that the entire recovery is in question.. its illogical on so many fronts..

     

    yet we will in fact hear those words over & over-- and now that "maybe" we will see a 10% or so drawdown , the headlines will be the TOP has been put in , and every thought a perma bear has in his or her head will be shouted loudly , etc.

     

    a trend that is this strong does NOT end, because of one data point

     

    My words from last week ---- Since the 1930s, no bull market has ever ended without a recession, and there are no signs one may be imminent.
    31 Jul, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Since 2009, the DJIA has broken its 50-day EMA 11 times.
    31 Jul, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    LMH: TLT has just turned positive so the flight to safety trade is back in vogue.

     

    As to #3, I am constantly monitoring European data which I find to be worrisome. I linked the page to Eurostat which is the EU's statistical agency and it is hard to find encouraging hard data points.

     

    The PMI (purchasing manager index) numbers coming from Markit are more positive than the Eurostat numbers on production which are not good.

     

    Markit Press Releases:
    http://bit.ly/1jgKLLa

     

    Last Eurostat Industrial Production Release:
    http://bit.ly/1s7aNWw

     

    As to the Chicago PMI, I do not view a one month report from any region as important. That number recently hit a high at 65.5. These numbers will bob up and down. The longer trends in both the regional and national PMI's are material.

     

    Some other DJIA components trading now below their 200 day SMA lines:

     

    Boeing:
    http://yhoo.it/1s7br6j

     

    PG:
    http://yhoo.it/1s7br6l

     

    WMT:
    http://yhoo.it/1s7br6q

     

    PFE:
    http://yhoo.it/1s7boHG;range=1y

     

    I view 200 SMA breaks as more important than 50 day SMA breaks, particularly when the stock or index is still comfortably above their 200 day SMA lines.
    31 Jul, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T, FG

     

    I agree, the reaction to the one data point puzzled me. Seems like it was hitting new highs, so time for a reaction to the first available data point....

     

    ---
    Mostly I was trying to ask & understand SG's thoughts better on his various data observations.
    31 Jul, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    LMH: The Chicago PMI is not important. It was not listed in my four negative data points above. I later added the increase in the employment cost index as a 5th negative data point when taken in conjunction with the 2.3% annualized increase in the PCE price index during the 2nd quarter, released yesterday as part of the GDP report.

     

    The question is whether the market's current valuation, which is high relative to historical means, is correctly forecasting growth prospects, taking into consideration Europe's persistently low inflation and industrial production numbers, and high unemployment, the potential for rising rates in the U.S. and the potential economic repercussions flowing from the West's response to Putin's aggression.

     

    It is noteworthy that TLT ended down today, falling $.34 per share, when the S & P 500 declined 2% and the VIX rose 27+%.

     

    There are certain stocks that I would consider buying on a further downdraft. I am waiting to read PG's earnings report tomorrow in order to make a decision on a possible re-entry point. Back in early March 2009, I bought some shares below $50 which is about where I would put the apex of the preceding catastrophic decline number.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1s7br6l
    31 Jul, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Thanks! That's informative.

     

    I'm still 50% or more out of the market, so my criteria for getting in would be a little lighter than most here who are already in, especially with div stocks that can be long term holds.
    31 Jul, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    South

     

    not ignoring or diminishing the dow components and their break below 200 day MA..

     

    RSI levels and other metrics indicating"oversold " conditions reveal :

     

    (NYSE:UTX) is at a level LOWER than sept '13 when it rallied from 99 to 112 and feb '14 when it rallied from 106 to 118

     

    (NYSE:GE) is at a level equal to feb '14 when it rallied from 24 to 26

     

    (NYSE:MCD) the same -- equal to the level of feb 14 - it rallied from 92 to 102

     

    (NYSE:KO) the same - equal to the same level in feb 14 - when it rallied from 36 to 42

     

    also of note all are well above their 200 "weekly" MA , indicating no upset to the long term trend .....

     

    in this quick reply I can't speak to the fundamentals of each , but suggest if they are in tact or better - they are worthy of some DD..

     

    stocks and markets can stay oversold or overbought for a while..

     

    i would agree that with the recent negative sentiment abounding these stock examples and the market may well continue weakness and stay oversold..

     

    However - until i see something that technically and fundamentally changes the LT trend -- it's UP .....

     

    selling calls here is a great way to "write" a dividend on select stocks in a portfolio..

     

    days like today is an example of why i use call writing -

     

    it avoids the greed factor , I don't worry about "capping" the gains on "selective" issues at this stage of the market, I'd rather opt for increased monthly cash flow..
    IMO, When stocks have a decent correction it will be time to swing for the fences again - until then its a few "singles" here & there

     

    Full disclosure

     

    I own GE , a full postion -- and have since 2010 - and believe the LT story there is in good shape ..
    31 Jul, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Oversold is a joke. Stop talking about trading terms, you are making me laugh. I've been trading for 16 years.

     

    Markets crash from oversold conditions, not overbought, btw.
    31 Jul, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    sure,
    just like the social media stocks rallied from oversold conditions , precisely when u called to short them ..

     

    i got it now..
    31 Jul, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    I'd worry about how much money you lost today, instead of my social media shorts.
    31 Jul, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    I appreciate both your thoughts. No need to compete.

     

    If you want to state a different view on a trading term or long range term that clarifies something different about them...it'd be interesting. Everyone here can have an option on any type of investing!

     

    Even I post mine - and I'm doing plenty of guessing.
    31 Jul, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,
    trust me -- no competition at all - :)

     

    is it a coincidence that a debate is orchestrated now on a down day in the markets , as opposed to the days when the S & P just made new all time highs

     

    HMMMM -- :)
    31 Jul, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F

     

    No competition, then you poke, lol. :).

     

    It's also the first day in a while that everyone's been around.

     

    Macro - please no poking too :).

     

    If you focus on the info itself and how you interpret it - folks like me learn a lot. Meanwhile even the experienced folks here will learn from each other too.
    31 Jul, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I don't claim to be particularly successful, but when nobody SA pundits make fun of cautious billionaires for being cautious, I chuckle.
    31 Jul, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    its a bunch of things causing the sell off -- rate fears- 10 yr yield rising , fed behind the curve-- , Russia sanctions will take euro down,
    Portugal bank issues , technical break below 1950 , on and on,, & the guy that stated the entire recovery is now is question based on one report , must have just surfaced from his bunker ...It is the type of comment I'm reading on the SA doomer blog....

     

    Here's an observation - gold the "safe haven" - is down $9 ,,, To me its a "tell" --- 2 + 2 isn't equaling 4

     

    a perfect storm so to speak -- and if the --what i will call the meaningless jobs numbers disappoint - more selling perhaps
    - on that note i believe we are in a mindset now that whatever number is reported tomorrow it will be spun negative

     

    the reality - S & p is off 2% or so from it's high --

     

    so far ----i like the fact that the doomers are pounding their chest and the media is in "panic mode" instead of "buying the dip" stories.. & that is the reason i stay in touch with the media types -- - they usually have no clue .

     

    if i had to make a call (guess) right now -- S & p down to 1890 level or 4-5% from the high .. a break there and we get the 10-12% correction..

     

    in this noise -- the positive earnings picture will be forgotten -- & that separates the KNEE- JERK traders from the investors...

     

    31 Jul, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    I'm reducing a couple of shorts, covering 2 I don't like, and bought SCIF, PDS, POU, TKC back long today. Seemed prudent and I'm less net short now.

     

    Still short social media, yelp, p, angi...
    31 Jul, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1682) | Send Message
     
    Macro:

     

    Any thoughts on shorting Germany? EWG.
    31 Jul, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    Why, EB?
    31 Jul, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    I'm trying to decide whether to buy a bunch of stuff today, or wait till a few days, see if it breaks into a semi-correction.

     

    (NASDAQ:GILD) down 2.3% - a buy?

     

    Macro - I was wondering if (NYSE:PDS) is a buy - it's had a few dips lately. I see you bought it :).
    31 Jul, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    Yes, IMO this is a good entry point for the Nat gas names ahead of winter coming, they are not in focus, and quite uncorrelated to the SPX. I'm very bullish on India as well, pulled the trigger back into SCIF.

     

    My secular bull thesis on natural gas is intact.
    31 Jul, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    the Technical's say we are in 'No man's land -- generally speaking ---- i'm waiting..

     

    IMO GILD hasn't come down to its 20 day MA - so it can come down more - after the big run , and so can others ..
    31 Jul, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - I'm very fuzzy this morning from the long drive yesterday so I think I'm going to hold off till tomorrow on buying, and do some research today.

     

    (NASDAQ:GILD) is still near it's high (based on your comments, I looked). Without a dividend, I'm waiting.
    31 Jul, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    Watching the market today, considering buying....

     

    however, tomorrow's job # could spark more selling.

     

    Even if it's a good jobs #, this could cause selling because then it may be that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner.....

     

    If it's a bad #, that could still cause more selling.

     

    Best to watch & wait....JMHO.
    31 Jul, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    More worries about Europe going into deflation (inflation is very low there) & markets in Europe "closed ugly."

     

    We are getting between a rock & a hard place now. Uneasy about what the Fed will do in the future - and how that will affect stocks - along with all the constant fears. If the jobs # is better than expected, that could ease a lot of concerns.

     

    By the end of the year, we will have a better idea of where we're going.

     

    Yesterday, Bill Gross talked about how we will have to lower our expectations on how stocks do (not as much upside for stocks) and be more concerned about income, as from dividends.

     

    Exactly why I focus on the dividends.
    31 Jul, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    Blue,,

     

    for those that have a decent amount invested in this market like yourself .. I agree there is no "rush'

     

    I get the feeling that the jobs # will be painted as "bad" no matter what it is :)
    31 Jul, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    Gold just closed $14 lower. No worries there.

     

    Enjoyed listening to Warren Buffet just now, giving some sage advice. He loves down days....nice getting the opportunity to buy great companies at an even better price. No reason to sell a great company that you trust, instead buy it and hold it for decades. He talked about buying a good business in the town you live in, you wouldn't dream of selling it every other day. Same with the stock market.

     

    Same stuff as he has said in the past. Buy & hold the great ones for decades....works well. (NYSE:PEP) is down .05, (NYSE:DE) is down .005,
    31 Jul, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    (NASDAQ:ODFL) up 0.76, (NASDAQ:MSFT) down 0.1085

     

    Some are up today. (NYSE:AMC), (NYSE:CLF), (NYSE:MCK)

     

    This is going to be an opportunity for some that are buying.
    31 Jul, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    The Russell 2000 is the first major U.S. stock index to have a downside break below its 200 day SMA.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1s7yGNL;range=1y

     

    There was a brief movement below the RUT's 200 day SMA back in May.

     

    Generally, a 5% break below the 200 day SMA, which holds for at least a few days or goes down further, is what I generally require before calling it a major breakdown.

     

    The volatility index for the Russell 2000 is the first to break above 20 which is what I would expect:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1s7yGNN

     

    The Nasdaq volatility index is currently around 16.5 up 18% so far today.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1s7yJsN

     

    DJIA volatility is currently near 15.15:
    http://yhoo.it/1s7yH47

     

    The Fear and Greed Index has tilted toward fear:

     

    http://cnnmon.ie/QxDqZ3
    31 Jul, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    One sure sign of irrational behavior today is fear of economic downturn, indicated in Chicago PMI data, while sending rates higher at same time. One or the other will be wrong, assuredly.

     

    Rather amazing how the market can discard all kinds of positive news in a heartbeat and develop a phobia.
    31 Jul, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    Rather amazing how markets also discount all kinds of negative news and go up when they want to.

     

    Today is now irrational to you, but buying is always rational?

     

    Tack markets occasionally go down, quite rationally.

     

    I'm certainly not complaining.
    31 Jul, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    I'm just amused. I'm balanced and hedged, so only down about half the move, and I have cash, so ramp up the panic, as far as I'm concerned.

     

    The earnings news has been overwhelmingly favorable. The GDP was way over what folks expected. Interest rates remain moribund. But, what happens today? We get a meaningless Argentina default (or not), and the notoriously variable PMI report from a single district disappoints. Hysteria results.

     

    The real proof that the market isn't acting rationally comes from having a deep sell-off, supposedly on fears of economic weakness, coupled with a day of rising interest rates. There's no way that combination is going to occur in tandem. Either rates should be plummeting, on economic weakness, or equities should be stable or rising, as GDP and inflation indicate a heating-up economy. Any fears that rates alone will cripple the economy should be far off.

     

    My guess is that this reversal will last about five minutes and leave a lot of panicky sellers for dead, yet again. Nimble short traders can make some money, of course, so be nimble.
    31 Jul, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    I amused that after a long, long rally a one day mild sell off is referred to as panic. Hysteria. Like really?

     

    You don't know what panic is, apparently.

     

    That's a blip today.

     

    Me thinks there a ton of weak handed longs in the market.

     

    "there's no way we can have rising interest rates --- and economic weakness".

     

    You don't have a clue Tack. None, proven by that statement. Junk bonds are tanking, rates are rising there, and if that continues, you bet we will see rising (junk) rates, stock market weakness, and a weaker economy, all together.

     

    Watch Junk bonds, not treasuries. I've been saying this for quite a while.

     

    Perhaps there will be less from the peanut gallery going forward.

     

    Whatever, it was a good day to reduce my short exposure.
    31 Jul, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    "Balanced and hedged -- I see. Hows that working out?"

     

    I just told you how it works out. I am normally down 25-50% of any down-move days. Today it was just under 50%. I'm more than happy to decline half the market's rate, or less, for as long as it wishes to go. Then, when it reverses, I'll alter the composition and make money lots faster than I lose any. Meanwhile, I continue to suck up 9.5% overall yield on my portfolio.

     

    I've been playing this game a long time. Requires a lot less guesswork than short-term trading.
    31 Jul, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    "Nimble short traders can make some money, of course, so be nimble."

     

    not in the long run they don't , there are plenty of studies that bear that out..
    31 Jul, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    FG:

     

    I meant on this dip. I agree, as a general strategy to produce wealth, trading is a mirage for most folks.
    31 Jul, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T, FG

     

    Macro did do well for himself trading. It's not the common, so it's important newbies know that.

     

    M,

     

    Tack was answering my question on what to expect tomorrow.
    31 Jul, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    There are plenty of studies as well that most financial advisors like yourself are complete idiots while parading their CFA's around like genius caps.

     

    It's comical you think you know more than Wilbur Ross, Stanley druckenmiller, Seth Klarman, who have been heavy sellers and cash holders. Didnt think you had their success.

     

    What exactly, qualifies you to say anything at all?

     

    If the shoe fits.....

     

    Personally I could get better advice at my local bank branch.
    31 Jul, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Macro - please stop. And I'm sure others will say the same. You just tried to call someone here an idiot!! There is no reason. It was peaceful. Focus on the data and YOUR opinions of it... let that stand for you.

     

    I've asked everyone to do the same, not just you (PM and here).
    31 Jul, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    south

     

    regarding the RUT -- my "line in the sand" is that double bottom pattern i pointed out a while ago in my blog that resides at 1082 where it made a low in Feb and stopped on a dime at the same 1082 back in may ...

     

    Its not as "oversold " according to the metrics i use -- as it was back in Feb & may suggesting to me , that it probably will test that 1082 level-- a failure there and it get's interesting

     

    I will add the same holds true for the S & P at the moment regarding the oversold metrics-- no bottom yet

     

    - my guess as i mentioned earlier is 1890 to 1900 on the S & P may come into play.....
    31 Jul, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    Fear: The break below 1082 in the RUT would be a good marker. I have already pared my small cap position based on valuation and to harvest the excellent returns over the past five years.

     

    The 200 day SMA for the RUT was 1144 yesterday and 5% of that number would be 57.2 points. My marker would thus be about the same at 1086.8. My guess is that the Russell 2000, which is clearly overvalued in my opinion, will break below 1082. If it holds and starts to move back up, then this latest downturn is likely to be just another dip.

     

    Personally, I would like to see a 15% correction now since I view index valuations as above my comfort zone.

     

    I have been wading through William Bernstein's new book. He is a bit wonky and a math Geek:

     

    Rational Expectations: Asset Allocation for Investing Adults (Investing for Adults Book 4) [Kindle Edition]
    http://amzn.to/1s7Eln4

     

    He does not view the historical mean Shiller P/E number, which is derived using data going back to the 1870s as relevant. At page 36, he notes that the CAPE has averaged 19.5 over the past 50 years. A regression line through the series intercepts at the end of 2012 at 20.3 which suggests "that is closer to today's 'true' fairly valued CAPE than the long term average of 16.5".

     

    He also notes that the historical average of the estimated forward year based P/E is about 13 (page 39). That is basically in line with Yardeni's charts which has the historical average at 13.7. The difference is probably the starting point. Yardeni's graph starts in the 1970s:

     

    Figure 1:
    http://bit.ly/1mrZULk

     

    The nose bleed territory in the late 1990s is much different than now.
    31 Jul, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    I've posted before, still seems important to me -- Shiller himself says that statistically his CAPE is pointless as a predictor.

     

    A quick look at charts of it against the index show too, exactly what you've said -- that the late 1990s nose bleeds were much more unique and telling than the current rates -- which happen to match other time periods when the market continued to bull.

     

    It's possible the economy will catch up to the P/Es without necessitating any of the worries that investors pointing to the CAPE say are coming.
    31 Jul, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    A move resembling Yardini's Figure 1 chart for the late 1990s would have me out of stocks entirely. Those kind of events have to be sold. GE, for example, hit $57 in 2000. The craziness was not limited to the Nasdaq stocks and was across the board. The only question differentiating blue chips from the momo internet stocks was the degree of craziness.

     

    The chart is also helpful in spotting buying opportunities like 1982, early in 2009 and after the nearly 20% correction in the 2011 summer. The 50% or so correction in 2000-2002 did not fully alleviate the overvaluation from the late 1990s by creating a clear buying opportunity until the bottom fell out in 2008.

     

    It would be highly unlikely that any stock, which I would own as a value investor, would still be in my portfolio in the forward estimated P/E ramp up like we saw in 1998-2000.

     

    I have said in many comments here that the market needs to slow down and allow earnings to catch up some with the current valuations. I would prefer a correction similar to the one in 2011, since those events highlight quickly buying opportunities. Another option would be just to go nowhere by year's end, with the closing numbers being about where we started in 2014.
    31 Jul, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    South,

     

    "He does not view the historical mean Shiller P/E number, which is derived using data going back to the 1870s as relevant."

     

    there i something that I definetly agree with -- it should be renamed the

     

    Cape Bear PE Ratio -- since that is all they seem to know or adhere to ..

     

    its useless ...
    2 Aug, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    F & G: For me, all of the valuation metrics need to be taken in context, which includes reasonable long term forecasts for inflation and worldwide GDP growth. The parabolic rise in emerging market consumers will be a long term secular force boosting worldwide GDP growth and profitability for American companies catering to that demand.

     

    I will also pay more attention to averages and means compiled over the past 20 or 30 years than those established with data series going back to the 1870's or even starting in the 1950s.

     

    Bespoke has a chart showing how the average TTM P/E number for the S & P 500 changes based on the time period.

     

    http://bit.ly/1r0Nn5B

     

    The average forward P/E based on "operating earnings" estimates will change too based on the time period selected.

     

    http://read.bi/1AKDeyw

     

    I noticed this morning that the TTM P/E for the S & P 500 had dropped to 18.8, as of 8/1, which is a decrease, while the forward estimated number rose to 16.15. Both numbers are calculated by Birinyi Associates and are updated weekly in the WSJ:

     

    http://on.wsj.com/HY9z7t

     

    Apparently, there was a net cut in earnings estimates for the third quarter:

     

    http://bit.ly/1AKDhdJ

     

    I downloaded the S & P data this morning. As of 7/31/14, it does look like a bit of downdraft in forecasts. The 2015 as reported GAAP number is now at 131.8 and the "operating earnings" 2015 estimate is 136.03. The 2014 estimated numbers are 109.67 for GAAP, which translates into a 17.6 P/E based on the closing prices on 7/31/14, and 116.5 for the estimated operating earnings number or a 16.57 P/E. The estimated operating earnings numbers are "top down", and are higher looking at the "bottom up" numbers.
    2 Aug, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    The CAPE is misused, but it's simply misrepresentation by diehard bears -- it's that looked at superficially, it looks high. It takes a little thought and stats to see that's inaccurate, & less people do that. That's why I think Shiller's own view of it is important.
    3 Aug, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - Typo

     

    "it's not simply that it's misrepresented." It's that it's easily to look at it and come to that conclusion that it's high --- unless you look a little more thoughtfully at the stats of it.
    4 Aug, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    adding one more observation /comment -

     

    IMO the bulls would like to see the VIX stop the uptrend @ 17.50 to 18 .....
    31 Jul, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    Funny how the long term investors are all expert traders now that we have a down day. I suppose no one lost any money, either.

     

    those who have been very wary on the small caps and junk debt, both of which are rolling over, are looking less like the so called "wrong crowd".

     

    The trader talk makes me laugh from those who know nothing about it.
    31 Jul, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    Macro,
    "The trader talk makes me laugh from those who know nothing about it."

     

    I expected as much as you decide to show up on a "down ' day -- now that's laughable .. and for the record you are very much a part of the "wrong crowd" --- and your commentary is testament to that ..

     

    Not sure anyone asked for your advice and honestly would suggest no one listen to it given the "trader" calls you have shared with us.

     

    The last being the rant 2 weeks ago about being short the social media stocks precisely 1 day before they bottomed and rallied sharply ...

     

    I wont make this a long debate - there is more to life and the market than to waste time with your commentary here ..
    31 Jul, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    Bottomed? Really? Seen yelp today? Angi, new all time lows?

     

    Your commentary is the classic "frustrated bull" call that today's sell off is irrational?

     

    Don't make me laugh with more amateur hour trading discussion. You know nothing about that game.
    31 Jul, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    the momentum names bottomed two weeks ago when many --- hated them

     

    some recent moves

     

    (NYSE:LNKD) from 156 to 186

     

    (NYSE:http://bit.ly/RneJ45) FROM 66 to 74 , IT CLOSED @ 67 today with the NASDAQ DOWN down 93 points !!! oh my its been crushed !!!

     

    (NYSE:http://bit.ly/175Prww) 36 to 47 , (NASDAQ:http://bit.ly/JeU1OL) 122 to 147

     

    plenty more for that list ..
    31 Jul, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    This is a waste of time. The Nasdaq went up 400 points or so to move yelp up 8 points, a quarter of that took it away.

     

    If you disagree, put up and buy yelp, angi, P. Otherwise it's useless talk.

     

    Obviously you think they are great investments.
    31 Jul, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    A question for you, so we can put this investment-vs-trading debate into some perspective:

     

    Do you put millions of dollars on the line in your various short and long trading plays? If not, then what do you (or would you, if you don't have such sums) do with lots of other capital? It's tough to make aggregate returns if the capital isn't somehow deployed.

     

    That's an issue I always think about when traders say P or YELP or some other name is a great short or long play for a quick trade. I can play a hunch, too, sometimes on an pure option position (rather than a hedge) , but I'm not putting vast assets into such speculation. No, the real bulk of capital has to be deployed in some more stable manner, both to mitigate risk and to generate ongoing returns.

     

    What's your own strategy on this?
    31 Jul, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I'm sure you think I'm 17, paper trading and blogging in my parents basement, so why give a straight answer that would incite ridicule?

     

    I simply think, most assets are really expensive, with a few exceptions, relative to their organic earnings power, which excludes buybacks and financial engineering, in a sluggishly growing (organically) economy, where margins have been so high for so long, due to really low corporate borrowing rates, and suppressed wage growth. Don't see the upside vs downside.

     

    Not that different, from say SG's thoughts.

     

    I dont know how to answer the remainder, except to say my inclination is to be aggressive when I see I stock like (NASDAQ:ANGI), which I have a target of zero, but balance and appropriate size is important, to stay in the game, long or short.

     

    It's been difficult, I admit, because sell-offs never have gained traction, as you have stated -- so when I got one today that wiped out a month of SPX gains, I lowered my own exposure by reducing a few shorts, and eliminating a couple more that weren't working, and nibbling on my long themes I like.

     

    It's rather difficult for YELP to drop when the Nasdaq never dips.

     

    It's a difficult game, I do the best I can, as we all do. Follow through selling without a bounce back -- would change the dynamic, but we don't know if that will occur.

     

    Perhaps tommorrow the Fed will say today's employment cost index was an anomaly and not to pay attention, and we roar right back. Don't know.
    31 Jul, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    It's not about ridicule. I'm just trying to point out that deploying large amounts of capital is a lot more challenging than making a tidy play on some short candidate, unless you're telling me that you have the cojones to place tens or hundreds of thousands on a short play. If you do, you're a braver man than I am.

     

    I'm just suggesting that unless somebody has a couple really big ones and puts their whole butt out there on the line that it isn't comparable to talk about shorting social-media stocks versus investment large sums for profit. Unless the short-term trader wishes to expose large sums to these speculative calls, that still leaves lots of cash to either just sit or to get deployed in some other productive manner.

     

    I, too, can see the merit in shorting a YELP or GRPN (not my game), but I couldn't bet the ranch on that, and I doubt you do either. So, that still leaves open what to do with the "big bucks." If one doesn't have big bucks, then it's a moot point, of course.
    31 Jul, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    I'm sure you've formed a view. How do you think I'm trading these calls I'm discussing?

     

    So far, you've been "more right" than me as liquidity pounces on every dip. Shocking, eh?

     

    Continue to see the junk bond market as key, and watch home builders, too as possible leading indicators.

     

    I do see parts of Asia as quite interesting and a much better value than the US. I simply -- hate chasing -- today is the first day in a long time -- I did some light buying with the Dow down over 200.

     

    Of course all academic if I am simply writing from my parents basement, lol.
    31 Jul, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Macro, Tack

     

    No one's claiming your in a basement, lol. However, I thank both of you for keeping most of the posting on the investing elements.

     

    It's very informative, & thought provoking.
    31 Jul, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    Dow holding above a loss of 300 points....buyers are coming in and lessening the decline.

     

    down 281 now; was just over 300 down.
    31 Jul, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    another issue....extremely low volume today.
    31 Jul, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    That was quite a mix today. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts tomorrow. A 15% correction would be great -- then the bull could continue upward with it's usual worries.

     

    Blue- low vol is an good point. There were those mid-day green streaks too - someone big was buying in.

     

    31 Jul, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    Barring some scary news item to be trumpeted tomorrow, look for a red open and a green close.
    31 Jul, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Thanks. That makes sense.

     

    On (NYSE:SAN), do you expect it to tend to go in the same direction as the S&P in general? (Or one of the other indices.) Or are there international factors that will effect it as well at this point in time?

     

    (I'm assessing for a buy in point - plus the more I understand it, the better.)
    31 Jul, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    I'd more or less expect it to follow the markets, broadly speaking. Their business is split about 50% Europe (including 20-25% UK), 25% South America and 25% U.S. I'd look for any weakness as a buying opportunity.
    31 Jul, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    So now you're a trader?

     

    That's intriguing.
    31 Jul, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    (NYSE:SAN) is about same as yesterday. $9.97. Is that the weakness level you're thinking of? I'm thinking of buying today -- but it's past ex-div date so I can wait too. (Not that I have any way to know which way the market's going to go :). )
    1 Aug, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Mute question. Just bought a position's worth at $9.90. Finger's crossed over a bunch of years, it will do me well...
    1 Aug, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    in reality if your are making this a LT holding as it seems you are--- it really wont make much diff if you buy at 9.90 or 9.25 --

     

    BTW the 200 day MA is around 9.50 which should be decent support with the current yield (NYSE:SAN)
    2 Aug, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F, T

     

    It had a short term support at 9.81-9.84. I wish I'd waited till it went down to that, another .5% off my buy. But am hoping it holds for a bit. And for long term, as you said -- seemed like it wouldn't really matter.

     

    I didn't think to look at the 200 day MA, 9.5. That would have been better to wait for - another 6.5% down.

     

    I hadn't thought about foreign divs can vary more. Wondering how much (NYSE:SAN) as varied, and if it will keep up... (Haven't found the data yet to look at it's past divs.)
    3 Aug, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    When possible please use ()s around your first mention of a stock. It makes it so much easier for others to mouse over and see what the stock is!
    31 Jul, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Are earnings coming out strong or weak?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    "after a batch of weak earnings." "Disappointing Q2 results from the likes of Exxon, Whole Foods and Akamai interrupted what had been a strong earnings season"

     

    Also a comment that "Participation spiked to 900M-plus shares traded at the NYSE." so volume was high....
    31 Jul, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,
    i saw this report on (NYSE:XOM)

     

    Exxon said net income rose to $8.78 billion, or $2.05 per share, from $6.86 billion, or $1.55 per share, a year earlier.

     

    Analysts on average expected earnings of $1.86 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

     

    overall, i'm happy with what I have seen on the earnings front..
    31 Jul, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    "so volume was high...."

     

    What? Volumes were tepid. Here's SPX volumes for this week:

     

    Mon - 436MM
    Tue - 492MM
    Wed - 477MM
    Thu - 315MM

     

    This suggests to me that panic sellers are likely to be sorry.
    31 Jul, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Then, I'm not sure what the SA comment about spiked to 900Mplus, is about. I'm going to ignore it.

     

    I can't figure out how to read volume on Scottrade. It's listing 10 day avg on SPX as 463M which makes sense, but today's volume as 623,629,000. It's not the easiest platform to work with....I'll have to keep hunting.
    31 Jul, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    The data I quoted seems to be in error (Etrade). The data from several other sources all appears to be contradictory, so I am not sure what the actual volumes are, presently.
    31 Jul, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    LMH: Your numbers for SPX volume correspond to what I have seen elsewhere:

     

    Average 10 Day Volume= 463M
    Today's Volume: 623.6M

     

    http://cnb.cx/1s81rde

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1s8...

     

    As noted in a Reuters article, volume on all U.S. exchanges today was about 8 billion shares, above the 5.6B average for the month to date.

     

    http://reut.rs/1s81rdf
    31 Jul, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the charts for Dow, S&P, & Nasdaq on CNBC.com volume spiked at the close.

     

    Currently, futures are positive for all 3 indices.

     

    I was buying at the close....if we go down tomorrow may buy more.

     

    The difference for me, managing over a million in 5 portfolios is that I need dividends & quality stocks to invest in.

     

    yelp, angi & other such stocks would never make it into any of my portfolios.

     

    There is a difference in quality, and holding for the long haul in order to keep that dividend stream.
    31 Jul, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    I really thought about adding to my utilities at the close, but held off just to see how the end of the week shakes out. While yesterday was the largest single down day I've seen in a long time, July was also the largest income producing month I've ever had.
    1 Aug, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CWinn

     

    Which utilities? I need to add some too. Blue & SG talked about a few too.

     

    Income from divs? What made it higher this month than before? ...and congrats!
    1 Aug, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    (NYSE:ED) (NYSE:SCG) (NYSE:WEC) ... there are others.

     

    If you think solar generation will disrupt traditional utilities, then buy some solar stocks too. (NASDAQ:FSLR) (NASDAQ:SCTY) etc. Cover all the bases....just in case.
    1 Aug, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    I'm betting on (NASDAQ:SCTY).

     

    Notice the good news about (NASDAQ:TSLA) and the continuing advances being made with the lithium batteries.

     

    Here's what: once you have your solar panels in place, you can then charge your electric car "free." People are already doing this, with their plug in cars.

     

    Off the grid will become a reality....once we have batteries that can charge up on sunny days to store electricity for use on cloudy days.

     

    This will have a big impact on traditional utilities as they provide less electricity in the future.

     

    But that's a good thing.
    1 Aug, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    "This will have a big impact on traditional utilities as they provide less electricity in the future."

     

    This is not necessarily the paradigm. A lot of home solar power generation is linked to and fed back into the grid. It's just a new power source for utilities, not the removal of customers.
    1 Aug, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    T, it will take decades before we see large numbers of electric consumers "off the grid." In the meantime, net metering is happening.

     

    I have friends that installed solar panels....they have almost no electric bill. They power up their plug in cars too.

     

    If the traditional utilities get into solar generation themselves, they will make even more money. As long as population is increasing, the future demand for electricity will increase as well.

     

    It's a win win for everyone....but solar will lessen pollution.

     

    In most of the world, they don't use dryers....they just hang the clothes to dry on the line. Imagine how much energy we could save (and less pollution) if we did more of that in the USA.
    1 Aug, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    Yeah, and if we all rode bicycles, like they did in pre-industrial China, imagine.....

     

    Let's not go overboard on the "pc" aspects of this. There's not a damn thing wrong with using energy or venting water vapor into the atmosphere. The whole idea of energy use being "bad," is some distorted thinking of people who want to control the behavior of others.

     

    Energy is what has created the entire world we live in. I'm not anxious to return to some "organic age."
    1 Aug, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Do you have any thoughts on (NYSE:DPG)? A closed end utility fund. On fund basics such as NAV, do the numbers tell you anything? Div not till Sept.
    1 Aug, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    http://bit.ly/1nZ7WQm

     

    Distribution rate has fallen to 6.43%. Still, fund looks safe enough unless rates zoom higher. Selling near max NAV discount.
    1 Aug, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Thanks!! It's not as good a margin against rate rises as the 8%, hum. Max NAV discount seems good, but hasn't narrowed for quite a while. 22% structural leverage. With 2% fee - with fee that high on 6% interest, I'll wait a bit and see if there's other utilities I like.
    1 Aug, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    (NYSE:WEC) is one that I was thinking on adding to. I only have a half position in it. And yes dividends.
    1 Aug, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    I know of two instances in my area where they are selling the excess back to the uitlities

     

    I dont have and cost or return on investment numbers but it does seem to be gaining in popularity
    2 Aug, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Any of today's numbers likely to matter to the market's reaction?
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Aug, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Will Russian sanctions tend to effect anything not-Russian?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    "Some of Russia's largest companies are starting to move their cash reserves to Asian banks as worries surface that Russia could eventually be completely shut out of U.S. dollar funding markets.
    Yesterday, the EU adopted its toughest Russian sanctions to date, including heavy restrictions on the country's financial markets, energy industry and a complete embargo of the arms trade between the two"
    1 Aug, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    July job gain below estimates
    -- July Nonfarm Payrolls: +209K vs. consensus +233K, +298K previous (revised from 288K).
    -- Unemployment rate: 6.2% vs. 6.1% consensus, 6.1% previous.

     

    Wasn't there a general "wisdom" that after a while in a recovery, just at the point of shifting from nervous to really recovering, there's a slow down pause point? Which this is looking like. I thought I've read that.
    1 Aug, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    (NYSE:LVS) is going up, despite bad news in Macau about less people gambling. However, that won't be true for long.

     

    5 years from now, (LVS) will likely double. They are building a casino in Japan. Las Vegas will continue to improve.

     

    And yes, it pays a dividend too.
    1 Aug, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    blue,,

     

    totally agree

     

    http://bit.ly/XsNHPG
    2 Aug, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    BlueSky: I don't believe LVS is building a casino in Japan. The Japanese legislature has not yet approved a law legalizing gambling:

     

    http://bloom.bg/1sogJxF

     

    If and when that approval comes, LVS will certainly be bidding on a license to build one or more casinos.
    2 Aug, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    (NYSE:LVS) was too near it's high for me to buy the last couple days. If the market comes down, it'll be on my list for sure.
    3 Aug, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    So what did we learn from the past few days? The economy is slowly chugging along, not fast enough to cause the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than expected, but fast enough to keep us from going into a recession.

     

    Watch where you are investing....quality does matter. Dividends help you weather the downturns. Buying the dip(s) is still a good strategy.

     

    Short term, the bumpy ride will continue. Do I want every little bump to knock me off my investment goals? No....but prudent pruning may be advisable so that future market dips can be taken advantage of. Good to have some cash available just for those future opportunities.

     

    Fortunately, if you are a dividend focused investor, you always have cash coming in.
    1 Aug, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    "The economy is slowly chugging along, not fast enough to cause the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than expected, but fast enough to keep us from going into a recession."

     

    its Goldilocks time ! :)
    2 Aug, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Anyone own (NYSE:KMB), or have experience with it? DGI, 3.3%div, did well in earnings report.
    1 Aug, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    L, it's done extremely well for me.

     

    One of the best - that's why it's up today.
    1 Aug, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Blue, thanks. A lot of the DGIs that get my attention, are up...
    3 Aug, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    I've continued to reduce short exposure today, expect a big bounce somewhere. Closer to neutral, now.
    1 Aug, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    With potential for rising interest rates, straight low interest utilities look less than ideal right now for new position...

     

    so what's driving (NYSE:WEC) to hold value when the market isn't.
    1 Aug, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    (NYSEARCA:XLU) and (NYSEARCA:TLT) are in positive territory this morning. The ten year has risen in price and fallen in yield. Both ETFs were slightly in negative territory earlier in the morning. (NYSEARCA:KRE) has accelerated to the downside as interest rates moved back down.

     

    There is an ETF that owns 7 to 10 year treasuries (NYSEARCA:IEF) and is up about .65% at the moment.

     

    I interpret the bond movement to be mostly a flight to safety but some investors who are pessimistic about growth may view the current yields as buying opportunities. I am not one of them.
    1 Aug, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    LOMH,

     

    IMO perceived safety and in WEC's case they continue to have good earnings and increase the payout yearly.
    1 Aug, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    I disagreed with those who argued that the Chicago PMI had anything to do with yesterday's decline. The market is sufficiently sophisticated to realize that a one month regional PMI report, which bobs up and down, is not material.

     

    Today, ISM released its national manufacturing report:

     

    http://bit.ly/quMVtJ

     

    Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.1 from 55.3 in June, better than the consensus estimate.

     

    The new orders component accelerated to 63.4 from 58.9 and the employment component rose to 58.2 from 52.8. Prices rose to 59.5 from 58.

     

    Both bond and stock investors can become delusional at times, and I do not see anything to detract from the solid U.S. economic growth trajectory during the 2014 second half and into 2015. In other words, I think bond investors have got it wrong today and had it right yesterday.

     

    Stock investors are just nervous and fearful at the moment. I understand. Valuations are stretched (not excessive), and it is hard to look at one's brokerage account and see all of those red arrows, as unrealized profit numbers shrink. The strong temptation is to sell before more of those nice profits disappear.

     

    Yesterday, the action was particularly brutal for a balanced investor like myself since almost nothing was working and consequently my main taxable account was down .99% vs. the S & P 500 decline of 2%.
    1 Aug, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    Southgent, I was down less than a half of a percent. Today, down a tad more. Not worried - and trying to find some bargains.

     

    The market needed to let some air out, it's healthy to move down from time to time.

     

    Strange to see so many stocks up today. Panera is up; earnings were good & outlook not so bad. Clorox missed - but the stock is up.

     

    Looks like others are feeling the bargain aspect, markets coming back up off lows.

     

    Off to bargain hunt : )
    1 Aug, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue

     

    What bargains are you finding? I've been looking & bought just a little. I'm going to put some of my 401k back into it's Russell 2000 ETF (a small/mip cap their own mix). Generally what's good seems near top price, even if it's down today. Haven't had a chance to look at banks yet & some of FG's about to pop ones, so off to do that.
    1 Aug, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13206) | Send Message
     
    S

     

    Yes. Both irrational.
    1 Aug, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    L, no buys today as the selling accelerated into the close.

     

    Let's see what next week brings.

     

    Can everyone please show more respect here?

     

    Nothing says more about your true character (or lack thereof) than the way you compose a post.

     

    Ridiculing others is so childish. A true gentleman (or gentlewoman) ignores churlish behavior.

     

    Thank you.
    1 Aug, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue

     

    But you bought yesterday, right? I saw my choices gaining into the close, not selling -- did I miss something with the indices??

     

    Bought a couple as they gained; decided that for longer term, .5% isn't going to make the difference. Mostly though I couldn't find buys and still have a lot of cash.

     

    I've had such a hard time getting myself to buy on the dips, that this seemed right. Worst case is 6-9 months down on these buys (most with divs) but cash to put in. Or everything heads up and I didn't miss out completely!

     

    Unless there's a geopolitical over the weekend, I expect a nice pop early next week. After that though, I suspect this was a priming for a bigger dip still to come sometime soon -- since so much of this selling seemed to be nervousness about new highs, and not really all that data-based, so those nerves will show again. Any which way, I've added to my long terms! I'd love to get some DGI's but the ones I want are high priced...grrr. I figured on selling before the summer weekend, by investors to reduce their worries. Then over the weekend, they'll spot buys... (probably different investors.)
    1 Aug, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    BSF,

     

    On the respect side, I couldn't agree more. There is certainly a lack of it here. The arrogance of some on the bull side here towards anyone who has been, correctly cautious on the small caps in particular, junk bonds etc, and even the Dow is now up what, a tiny fraction for the year.

     

    One would think by all the frustrated bear comments an failing strategy, the Dow was up another 30% this year.

     

    Especially laughable is those who mock cautious investors, legends like Seth Klarman, Wilbur Ross, Stanley Druckenmiller, billionaires all, along with several others.

     

    To you who do this, I tell it like it is -- I ask " what have you achieved compared to them, to even be qualified to comment on their wisdom?

     

    Try....listening first.

     

    That's all --- " case closed" :)
    1 Aug, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Macro,

     

    Hum, it's "them"?? ...and that's the problem. Everyone shouldn't make this personal -- that includes you. Your comment here is pointing at others. That's got to stop.

     

    Everyone else has dropped this whole thing. So please do so too.

     

    No one was commenting to at you, nor on your investing. You were on vacation and posters makes some comments about the bear view. It wasn't about you or at you at all. ...!!!

     

    I don't care if people post that the bears are wrong. I don't care if they post that the bulls are wrong. Stop taking that personally!!!!!!!!

     

    Figure out how to respond with your views without a single comment about others HERE being right or wrong!

     

    Case closed :)!
    1 Aug, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    What goes around, comes around,

     

    And I call it the way I see it.

     

    Anyway it's amusing most on SA seem to think they are more successful than Stanley Druckenmiller. The true arrogance has been towards them, not me. I'm not claiming to have the story right, but people should listen when billionaires get cautious.
    1 Aug, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    If you want to say
    "people should listen when billionaires get cautious" that's fine. And a good point.

     

    If you want to say there's arrogance by others at these billionaires, that's personal commentary!!! It's what Blue wanted stopped, and I don't want either. You're pointing fingers at others. That's what we're asking you to stop doing.

     

    Let others be wrong or arrogant or punchy or whatever, and focus on YOUR addition. Don't mention what you think of them!!! Is that possible?
    1 Aug, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Meanwhile, what do you think of astarr's idea below? Or my question about (NYSE:LAZ) and div vs. price?
    1 Aug, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (1578) | Send Message
     
    L, I was watching the Dow; it was going down .... after pulling back up until about 2 pm.

     

    I did buy a few shares on Thursday, adding to existing positions.

     

    Agree with you, we may see a pop to the upside next week. Hopefully after we buy some more bargains : )

     

    It's a little frustrating....the stocks I want to buy didn't go down enough.

     

    (NASDAQ:TSLA) was up, a lot of big expectations out there for the gigafactory(s) and model X. Time will tell whether Tesla will be the great automobile company that many expect. Same with (NASDAQ:SCTY).

     

    You know I'm in for the long haul. Love those great companies - (NYSE:PG) was up on Friday, as was (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:CL) (NYSE:KMB) (NYSE:MCK). (NASDAQ:GILD) & (NASDAQ:CELG) doing very well. Did you see (NASDAQ:REGN)? Nice tick up.

     

    (NYSE:C) is one I'm watching. Not sure if I want to own it.

     

    (NYSE:KKR) (NYSE:BX) (NYSE:OAK) (NYSE:MAIN) (NYSE:PTY) (NASDAQ:PSEC) (NYSE:JPM) (NYSE:VZ) (NYSE:T) (NYSE:LMT) (NYSE:NOC) (NYSE:SNA) (NASDAQ:SWKS) (NASDAQ:FB) (NYSE:AMC) (NYSE:KO) (NYSE:PEP)
    (NYSE:BUD) (NYSE:STZ) (NYSE:LVS) (NYSE:M) (NYSE:FL) (NASDAQ:CBRL) (NYSE:NLY) (NYSE:DFT) (NYSE:WEC) (NYSE:ED) (NYSE:SCG) (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NASDAQ:MSFT) (NASDAQ:DNKN) (NYSE:HSY) all keepers. Would like to add (NYSE:DPS) and (NYSE:SWK) maybe (NYSE:MHK).

     

    (NYSE:BA) (NASDAQ:MAT) (NYSE:BGS) still beat up but lots of future potential.

     

    (NYSE:IBM) & (NYSE:MCD) are getting hit, could be future opportunity if you buy them low.
    2 Aug, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . Blue

     

    Thanks for the list of all those long hauls!! Lots to look at.

     

    I still think (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a pure bet. It's P/E has already priced in the expected company growth. So you're buying as though that growth has already happened & more will happen after that. Or that buying that others will join it as a musical chairs game. Could be a good buy and gain, but it's pure mo-mo at this point.
    3 Aug, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    "generally what's good seems near top price".

     

    That is not the investment rationale, in isolation, I use.

     

    If one wants to make the case for IWM for other fundamental reasons, that's another story.

     

    However just because an asset has been strong for an extended time doesn't mean it's a good investment today at current prices.

     

    My rationale would be to more buy out of favour but inherently quality assets, unless it's for a "trade".

     

    Then you need to decide who you are, a trader or an investor, it's 2 different worlds.
    3 Aug, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    My posts must not have come through very clearly.

     

    Because things that seem good are also seeming to be near top price... I -did not- buy them (bought a little). That's an investor decision on individual stocks.

     

    Buying IMW was a trading buy. It has nothing to do with long term investing for me.

     

    Buying the Russell completeness was a long term investment -- but it's not small cap. It's the odd mix of small/mid in the 401k that's been good to hold over longer term. So it could be high right now, but it could take a year or more for me to get through deploying the rest of my funds, and get to figuring out what to do with these funds -so meanwhile, I want it in the market in the fund it was in, and probably long term I'll wind up putting it into anyway. In 10 years, it won't matter that I put it in now. Either it goes up and I don't miss out. Or it goes down, and then takes a while to go up, and all I've lost is opportunity to get in lower. So instead of timing at all -- it's in.
    3 Aug, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    Today I bought several emerging market stocks, MBT TKC THD, and am now reset long in the Nat gas names.

     

    I'm still short VRX YELP P ANGI GRPN.

     

    Asia is much cheaper with more growth than the US. Organic growth.

     

    Bought GILD as well.

     

    Am happy with the last 2 days as a healthy reset of the market.

     

    Overall neutral in exposure, to slightly net long.
    1 Aug, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    From commentary ridiculing the cautious as fools 2 days ago:

     

    "-- Notice how the nasdaq has not reversed , and the RUT which has been weak has now shown some resilience in the last 2 trading days.. as it is also in the green"

     

    How's that working out? For those calling my caution on the RUT as a "failing strategy" , exactly what is the YTD return for those piled into the RUT, let alone the second tier social media / momentum stocks like ANGI , FEYE, Ect....

     

    Perhaps there will be some respect for those who have had it clearly "right" via their caution on the small caps.

     

    Of course it's easier to take shots than take actual risk.

     

    Oh BTW notice the free fall in high yield bonds? Believe some of us were ridiculed as fools for our caution there, too. Hilarious!
    1 Aug, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Did some more buying today. Including (NYSEARCA:IWM) as a trade - it will come up from here at least a little.

     

    My totals aren't looking very good since I started buying a few days ago (before the dip)... Oh well. It's nice to be rewarded right away, but a bunch of these are longer term stories.
    1 Aug, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I don't like IWM whatsoever, I'm still short via options, and can easily see a peak to trough move of 20-30%.

     

    Riskiest and weakest part of an expensive US market.

     

    If the IWM rallies I will add to my short exposure, as I sold some options today.

     

    Emerging markets long term are much cheaper and the place to be with at least 30% of ones long exposure. India small caps are a much better secular bet than US small caps.
    1 Aug, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » M

     

    Agreed IWM is weak. I bought as a trade. At $110.50, it's likely to go to $112.50 soon, unless a market correction starts for real. If IWM rallies, I'll probably sell more than just the trade, but also some of my base in it.

     

    I saw your India buy. Haven't had a chance to check into these yet, but would like to.
    1 Aug, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • astarr66
    , contributor
    Comments (206) | Send Message
     
    Question: what are your opinions on using the 'Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio', a ratio used to determine whether an overall market is undervalued or overvalued? The ratio is currently at close to 130%.

     

    http://bit.ly/1lki4x8

     

    http://bit.ly/yXvIhT
    1 Aug, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » astarr

     

    Very interesting... I look forward to hearing ideas...!
    1 Aug, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    astarr66: This is a link to a counter argument:

     

    http://bv.ms/1hMiYQx

     

    See also:

     

    http://bit.ly/1o01VTn

     

    http://bit.ly/1o01TuS
    1 Aug, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1rXQ3Ts

     

    India is 60%
    1 Aug, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1682) | Send Message
     
    India (NYSEARCA:EPI) is very hot. What about long India (EPI) and short (NYSEARCA:EWG). I believe Germany and other European countries will suffer due to sanctions against Russia.

     

    A long/ short trade does not have to be perfect to make money. The only criteria is the long position should do a little better than the short position.
    2 Aug, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    Astarr

     

    at this stage of the game - I like to select stories and "names" that have a chance to outperform -

     

    I believed that would be more important than ever this year ...

     

    some names from the beginning of this year and new picks so far in '14

     

    for every "overvalued" argument there are plenty of counters and vice versa ... BUT there are some undervalued names that will do well and 'outperform"-- its just a matter of finding them

     

    some examples from the beginning of this year and some new ideas so far in '14

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Aug, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    EB,

     

    Interesting and worth a look. My thesis on India is the new govt could be a catalyst for a secular growth opportunity not seen in a generation. Imagine if India makes progress towards being the next china. India is already near term a little expensive, but if you double both GDP and the market cap to GDP ratio over 5-7 years, you get a quadruple. All about organic growth.

     

    Also think, if you believe the 5 year china bear market is coming to a close, one must be in Thailand, Indonesia, or phillipines. I've chosen Thailand via THD. it's the regional powerhouse and very cheap with higher growth than the US.

     

    On Russia I just rebought MBT. So cheap, telecom isn't going anywhere. Not selling off even with sanction news. Same with TKC. Good and non- correlated to the small cap correction I expect in the US. Alternative would be simply Turkey via etf TUR.

     

    I will maintain my shorts in the weaker small caps and momentum names against EM and natural gas longs, as QE ends and inflation rises, the small caps should continue to correct for a time.

     

    On natural gas china and Canada have signed a supply memorandum. China's gas demand is insatiable. There is a huge secular growth story there again uncorrelated to US markets, you buy now or later, but the opportunity over coming years is simply massive. Names include ECA CHK PDS POU-T BIR-T.

     

    The thesis here is as china moves from coal which is killing the air to Nat gas --- huge huge social change to air quality.
    2 Aug, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (3721) | Send Message
     
    I am also taking a hard look at Russia again. The idea is to buy when an asset is cheap, and russia is the cheapest in the world right now. I note even with increased sanctions, the RSX etf refuses to make a new low.

     

    Short of open conflict, it may be washed out completely. Might be worth a look.

     

    I am really hoping for a big gap down, and first hour sell off on Monday. I will be a further buyer. I'm currently 25% net long and will double that on a big gap down. Below 1900 would be nice.
    2 Aug, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1682) | Send Message
     
    M:
    Thanks for the reply. I am long China Jan 2016 30 calls so I hope the China bear is over. I have also been looking at Canada via EWC. Your comments help explain why it has done so well recently. I have been heavy in emerging markets for a while so I definitely agree with your assessment there. I am considering a short on VbK which recently broke through it's 200 day average. Are you trading nat gas through futures or other means? I have previously traded the futures contract but have not reviewed it recently.

     

    Thanks again.
    2 Aug, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Macro- I'm still holding (NYSE:MBT) from my initial purchase at start of year. Still up and will be collecting dividend shortly. As you mentioned I did notice it didn't sell off like I thought it was going to with all of the news.
    3 Aug, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » EB

     

    Why long and short as opposite each other? (Rather than thinking of them as two separate plays.) Are they tied together in some way? ...or it's something about getting the spread to work?

     

    Also, why do you think Germany will do poorly from Russian sanctions -- is some of German economy tied closely with Russian imports / inexpensive exports? I'm not familiar with either country's economy that way. I'd think Poland and other prior-satellites will be effected. Is there a German link too? And will the impact be more than the positive effect on Germany of Europe's recovery (if it ever gets moving), and Germany's own internal strong economy from other aspects?
    3 Aug, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • southgent1951
    , contributor
    Comments (3005) | Send Message
     
    Extreme: I do a lot of paired trading which is similar to long/short ideas.

     

    I buy one security and sell another based on an opinion that the buy will outperform what I am selling.

     

    It may be that the buy will go down less, or up more when and if both go up; or go up when the sell goes down. All of those results are view as successful.

     

    In a 7/5/14 Post, I paired the purchase of 100 EWC at $32.11 with the sell of 155+ ENY at $17.55.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ndVoTp

     

    Both own Canadian securities, but ENY is a narrow sector ETF focused on Canadian energy companies while EWC is an index ETF for all Canadian stocks.

     

    Both went ex dividend after this paired trade:

     

    EWC: $.235 per share
    ENY: $.101 per share

     

    Last Friday's Closing Prices:

     

    EWC: $31.85
    ENY: $16.34

     

    Both ETFs have declined but the percentage decline for EWC is less.

     

    Unadjusted for the dividend payments:

     

    EWC -.008%
    ENY -6.89+%

     

    Both securities would have been adversely impacted by the recent decline in the CAD/USD exchange rate. The CAD has fallen below its 200 day SMA line:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1sigXmL

     

    *******************

     

    LMH: My long KRE/short XLU is based more on a longer term fundamental analysis and guesses about the future course of interest rates. If rates rise in the second half and into 2015, XLU will likely fall in price and KRE will likely go up. If the fear and risk off trade, similar to what we saw last Friday stays in vogue, then this paired trade will most likely not work.

     

    If I owned XLU now and I do not, I would sell it and use the proceeds to buy KRE. Another way to implement this idea would be go long KRE in some way (including options) and short XLU in some way. The general idea is similar to my paired trades. I expect one to do better than the other. Ideally, you would want XLU to go down a lot and KRE up a lot so that a profit is made on both the long and short. The trade does not have to perfect, as Extreme noted, in order to be successful. If the short goes down more than the long, then the trade can succeed. The worst outcome would be for the short to go up and the long down.

     

    So far, my paired long/short is doing badly over the past two trading days.
    3 Aug, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1682) | Send Message
     
    LMH: They certainly are separate trades and it is important that each short goes down and each long goes up. However, one can still be profitable as long as the short does not go up more than the long.

     

    As I stated earlier, I track 40 funds and I want to stay long the top ten based on price performance and out of or short the bottom ten. It is my hope the trends will continue and the top ten will continue to outperform the bottom ten. I am net very long. Shorts represent a small percentage of my portfolio however I believe it can be beneficial to be short some positions at all times. It can take a little sting out of a big down day if they work correctly.
    3 Aug, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • extremebanker
    , contributor
    Comments (1682) | Send Message
     
    South:

     

    I agree with your thinking about paired trades even if you are not short. Probably the biggest paired trade for most investors involve stocks versus bonds. Increase/decrease stocks/bonds. Your decisions can make a lot of difference. However, the power of being able to go short can simply be seen during 2008 if the investor was short SPY and long TLT. That would have taken a very bad year and turned it into a very good year. This is why I like to keep the short tool in my bag.

     

    It is simply a way to add leverage to situations where you are correct.
    3 Aug, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    (NYSE:LAZ) down 2.3% today. BUT also ex-div today or yesterday with 2% div. So most of that drop was from going ex-div? Am I understanding that correctly?
    1 Aug, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L

     

    an article i saw in addition to my own thoughts on (NYSE:LAZ) whicjh I believe you already know

     

    http://yhoo.it/XsOnER
    2 Aug, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Nice article!

     

    I double checked. Scottrade has 7/31/2014 ex-div date, 2.35% yield. Payable Aug 4th.

     

    So would that mean the 2.3% drop Friday 1st was an ex-div drop?

     

    I didn't buy because if it is that type of drop, then the stock didn't go down for real.
    3 Aug, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    the ex div drop was on thu . the stock sold off on fri ,with the rest of the financials as the entire group was weak....
    3 Aug, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F

     

    Ops :(. I would have bought! Maybe there'll be another chance.
    3 Aug, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4954) | Send Message
     
    Thoughts on the market --

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Aug, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (3995) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    ----> a new chapter 34!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Aug, 07:31 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.