Land of Milk an...'s  Instablog

Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #35 231 comments
    Aug 11, 2014 11:06 AM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #35. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #34: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land-of-milk-and-honey/3127265-best-ways-to-invest-whats-your-opinion-a-place-to-share-ideas-34?v=1407767151 (I've been putting in the right links, but sometimes this doesn't seem to work correctly. You can always go to my profile, then to my instablogs, and find the latest.)

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!. Several have their own instablogs with their ideas outlined well!

    Disclosure: The author is long SPY, IWM, DIA, QQQ, LINE, CVX, F, TOT, MU, SAN, LAZ.

    Additional disclosure: ...and more... ask me if you're curious!

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (231)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Looks like the market's back to upward. Any sense (or technicals) that the dip isn't quite over?

     

    "Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said this morning that rebounds across advanced economies have been disappointing, leading to reduced long-term expectations for growth potential in the U.S."
    http://bit.ly/1oXiwGd

     

    Good news, that recovery will continue slowly?
    11 Aug 2014, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    I like the rebound, but the dip was a good opportunity. Wish I'd bought more....

     

    Here's an article that looks at good stocks to buy now, as they are still undervalued & long term, these are the kind of companies you want in your core portfolio

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Aug 2014, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Recently read an article about how long term, the US GDP will not be going up that much. This means your income from dividends will be that much more important.

     

    However, there are some stocks that will show explosive growth. Right now, the biopharm sector has been a great place to invest in companies that are creating new drug therapies. It's not too late to get into (NASDAQ:GILD) (NASDAQ:CELG) (NASDAQ:AMGN) (NASDAQ:NVAX) etc. and reap the rewards.
    11 Aug 2014, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Yep, wishing so much that I'd bought more on this dip.

     

    I'll look into the biopharms -- it's a booming sector. But first some more DGIs :-).
    11 Aug 2014, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    To newcomers, we've moved onto chapter #36. Please join us there!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Aug 2014, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    First, technicals hit a key support point in the overnight swoon last Thursday/Friday, then bounced strongly. Friday's rise, in fact, was almost a full percent higher than appears, if one measures from Thursday night's nadir. Doubt we'll see any further downward pressure in the short term unless some new developments emerge.

     

    Second, growth will remain muted as long as anti-business fiscal policies remain in place, regardless of what Fed policy may be. Neither increasing excess reserves nor reducing them will have detectable effect. As long as growth is muted and inflationary pressures remain contained, value and yield issues will outperform other classifications, save, perhaps, various techs and NASDAQ darlings, whose speculative trading isn't linked to economics in the first place.
    11 Aug 2014, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Can you describe that technical, and how it hit overnight?

     

    Makes sense with that much upward pressure, it will take geopolitical plus more sense of nerves from hitting new highs... to get downward pressure.

     

    You bring up something that explains the Fed's comment. The comment seemed odd - why would they be spreading negativity? Because Fischer in particular believes policy changes are needed, and wants to pressure congress.
    Good luck, because is what's needed. Then again, they're still busy sounding like my nieces "no I didn't do it, you did. No I didn't, you did...." With my nieces, I started yawning and funny how quickly they switched topics. Wonder if that would work for Congress?
    11 Aug 2014, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Interesting developments with Kinder Morgan, announcing they will scrap the MLP & recombine all the pieces, (NYSE:KMI) (NYSE:KMP) (NYSE:KMR) and (NYSE:EPB). Here's an article describing what will happen

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My (KMP) was up $21 a share pre-market; now it's up $13.55. Short squeeze is easing.

     

    I've decided to not sell but instead take the 2.1931 shares of (KMI) per share of (KMP) and the $10.77 per share of (KMP). It's a long term hold for me, so the dividends will continue. Nice surprise today : )
    11 Aug 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue,

     

    I hadn't bought Kinder Morgan, and stayed with (NASDAQ:LINE). Sigh.

     

    Meanwhile, what I've noticed is that a good management team finds ways to fix things. They can look stodgy like Kinder has & a so-so investment, but they pull it out -- takes a while often for the deal or shift to come through.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    L, whenever a stock goes into under valued territory, it is time to buy. Especially if there are dividends too. Keep buying those dips.

     

    My utility stocks have been going down today. I'll watch them, and if they go down a lot, may buy some additional shares.

     

    The re-balancing philosophy works to keep taking some profits, while using that $ to either buy shares of undervalued stocks (my preference) or for the very conservative, bonds.

     

    There are many reasons that I don't like bonds, but the main one is that if you have a pension in retirement, and certainly social security monthly income, then investing in bonds is not really necessary. You already have steady income every month coming in. Stocks are the one way you can get more income from dividends, and hopefully - growth.

     

    That growth can be powerful. (NASDAQ:SWKS) is up over 50% since I bought it in February this year.

     

    Certainly we will see more dips - maybe even this week. Keep averaging down the cost of your shares, collecting dividends & double down when the market gives you a great stock at a cheap price.

     

    When (NYSE:WAG) fell $10 in one day last week, I added to my position. Great company, pays a dividend & long term, this one is a keeper.
    11 Aug 2014, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue,

     

    If utilities reach a buy point -- let me know which ones you're looking at :). I could use some.

     

    I didn't noticed that (NYSE:WAG) decline. Good add.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    will do; (NYSE:ED) was down again today.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue,

     

    Quite a dip recently, and solid recovery.

     

    Articles talk about it being generally flatlined, and not much growth potential. Are you expecting growth or in it for the high div 4.5%?
    13 Aug 2014, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    This article was a good read

     

    http://cnb.cx/1mCQnjG

     

    Even with slowed growth, future recessions, etc. the best place to continue to earn $ is the stock market. Long term, those dividends will continue to grow....and if they don't, you can sell that stock. Keep buying the ones that are true dividend growth investments.

     

    David Fish on SA maintains a list of DGI stocks. Then use higher yield stocks to enhance your total portfolio income. (NYSE:PTY) (NASDAQ:PSEC) (NYSE:OAK) (NYSE:MAIN) (NYSE:BX) (NYSE:OHI) (NYSE:TCAP) (NASDAQ:TCRD) (NYSE:HCP) (NYSE:NLY) (NYSE:DFT) are a few....many authors here on SA cover these types of investments.
    11 Aug 2014, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Are those BDCs considered DGI? Very few have existed for more than a few years.

     

    (NYSE:TCAP) was finally getting closer to my buy in, 3% down. Poor news yesterday, & down another 3.5%. Makes that 8% yield not appealing.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    L, the problem with DGI stocks is that they only pay around 2% to 3% (a few pay higher dividends). So to bump up the income generated by my portfolios, I have a variety of BDCs, Reits, etc.

     

    I saw that (NYSE:TCAP) decline after hours. Could be caused by a secondary offering of stock. Also saw where Raymond James rated it as "outperform" so hopefully the price will go up soon.

     

    here's a link

     

    http://bit.ly/1pnTlgN

     

    I'll hold it patiently, collect the dividend in the meantime.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    Tomorrow's open is when one adds TCAP or sell puts against the dip caused by new offering.
    11 Aug 2014, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue,

     

    Nice to know someone's rated it well... They announced the other day that they'll be increasing div by 10%, so I thought they were going to start pricing higher...

     

    I was puzzled by this: What brought their NAV up?
    "The company last week reported NAV per share of $21.03 as of June 30 vs. today's close of $27.64."

     

    This article on the differences of BDCs in cash flow to cover their divs, is helpful:
    http://on.barrons.com/...
    11 Aug 2014, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Thanks! I didn't even think of adding. I have as much as I want... and it's not done well, so I don't have love of adding more.

     

    ...but in your experience, are dips over new offerings usually short lived (in company's that's just beat, & just raised div)?

     

    I'll look at puts, in hopes of not adding in the end or getting a price too good to pass up.
    11 Aug 2014, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Blue's article by author RegardingSolutions suggestions some DGIs are reasonably priced to buy right now.

     

    Anyone have opinions on (NYSE:T), (NYSE:PG), (NYSE:GE), (NYSE:PFE), or (NYSE:F) at current values?

     

    FearGreed wrote a positive article on (F) recently:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Aug 2014, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    LMH

     

    My experience is that buying dips occasioned by new issuances, or even better, selling puts in such instances, is a money maker almost without exception unless the overall market has a major change in trend.
    12 Aug 2014, 04:53 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Regarded Solutions is a hack.
    12 Aug 2014, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome to the blog Eudaimonia!

     

    I agree, I approach him concepts with caution. I've seen some good ideas from him, but also things I wouldn't do. In this case I'm looking to get some DGIs, & the numbers on those stocks are such that I'm curious what folks here think of them at this time.

     

    What prompted you to make your comment?

     

    Any thoughts on what to invest in at the moment, or in general what to do with the market at the moment?
    12 Aug 2014, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    L,T,

     

    While not having the exposure to BDC's as Tack , I'll second his thoughts on getting involved when there are new offerings.

     

    I've used that strategy for MLP's .. it has worked quite well as I have found that the shares rebound quickly after the offering..

     

    lock in the yield and getting a quick pop in the shares.. always leaves a good feeling :)
    12 Aug 2014, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack,

     

    Thanks!

     

    Market could start a trend downward for a bit here based on geopolitical triggers, but worst case is I own more TCAP and have to wait for market to come back while collecting a div... This BDC seems to be well enough managed to keep over time (it's internally managed.)

     

    Options aren't open yet this morning. So far from yesterday, most Put strikes less than current price are bid at 0.
    .10 for 24.70 Sept 20
    .45 for 24.85 Dec 20
    12 Aug 2014, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    F & G: I will consider buying or adding to an existing BDC position when the market price falls below the net asset value per share, which frequently occurs when the BDC sells shares.

     

    On the flip side, I will consider selling shares in an externally managed BDC after harvesting several dividend payments and the price rises 5% above the net asset value per share.

     

    I have a negative view of externally managed BDCs. When an investor looks at the historical trends in net asset value per share, the general trend is for that number to go down, even as the managers reap hedge fund like compensation for their efforts (e.g. 2% of assets including those purchased with debt plus a generous incentive fee)

     

    Those who favor BDCs will generally neglect to mention those NAV trends, even though the market price tends to hug the NAV per share fairly closely for externally managed BDCs.

     

    When I discuss one in my blog, I will not neglect to mention that history, as I did in my last blog discussing a purchase of FSC.

     

    1. Bought 200 FSC at $9.78-Regular IRA
    http://bit.ly/1sMMWuK

     

    While I am an income investor, my focus is total return with the dividend. It is important for investors to avoid confusing an oversized dividend with a good investment.

     

    Long term charts reveal some issues with BDCs, as does a reading of the Risk section in their annual reports which are the longest in any industry sector.

     

    E.G. PSEC Long Term Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/RrOYDy;range=my

     

    AINV Long Term Chart:
    http://yhoo.it/RrOY6p

     

    I currently own both.
    12 Aug 2014, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Agree with what FG said. I'll add too that you should pay attention at the bid/ask on the day of the offering as you can at times get in below the offering price as the price fluctuates during the day.
    12 Aug 2014, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    C

     

    You can virtually guarantee that by selling puts. How much below depends on whether the strike is OTM or ITM. It's also easier to choose options when the strikes are at $1 intervals.
    12 Aug 2014, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    I should note, however, that playing the option game on TCAP may have limited opportunity today, as unfortunately the current price falls right in a gap between wide-spaced option prices. We'll have to see the bids after the open.
    12 Aug 2014, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    I was wondering out how spread out the strikes are on (NYSE:TCAP)...

     

    Any chance whoever does these chains, adds strikes to fill in the gaps? Is it worth waiting a day to see?
    12 Aug 2014, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    (NYSE:TOT) is down again today 1.7% currently. Probably on European worries, and Russian sanctions?

     

    I have a full position, but selling Puts might be good today on it? 5% div stock.
    12 Aug 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    No idea what may materialize, but buying the issue dip is best done right now. Unfortunately, I don't see any feasible option play that works at current prices and spreads, especially given the dividends that will occur before both September and December strikes.

     

    I just decided to buy some shares, instead.
    12 Aug 2014, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    I see only 0's in bids below current price through Sept, and not much in Dec.

     

    I just bought $26.81. Hopefully an okay price to get in? And it will work out...

     

    Is there a goal price you'll keep in mind to get out at?
    12 Aug 2014, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - (NYSE:TOT) options

     

    $.50 for $60 strike Sept 20. About 4% down.

     

    $1.20 for $62.50 strike Sept 20.
    Only 2.5%ish down so it will very likely reach that.

     

    This is down on geopolitical and European data. So I'm not sure 4% down is enough to give a good shot to avoid buying more shares...?
    12 Aug 2014, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - T

     

    What does divs have to do with it? When selling puts, you don't have to pay those divs do you? I thought that was with buying calls.
    12 Aug 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CW

     

    I see what you mean. I suppose the offer is intended to be fair market value, so getting in lower means an increase is likely to happen.

     

    (NYSE:TCAP) is now at $26.75-77, so lower than the offer $26.85.
    12 Aug 2014, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    Unless they raise the dividends further, I'd probably be a seller if the yield dropped below 7.5%.
    12 Aug 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    The dividends come into play because the share price is adjusted downward at the ex-dividend date. If an issue offers sizable dividends, this can make a material impact on the expected price at certain dates. Option prices are not adjusted for dividends, but include those expectations in the price.
    12 Aug 2014, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Did you wind up buying?

     

    Dividend adjustment on price - something for me to make a note of!
    12 Aug 2014, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Added 33% of my recently-established TCAP holding.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    I've been wondering about the NAV trends, and numbers in general. The "productivity" (variety of numbers) seems to be down y/y on quite a few BDCs.

     

    The NAVs trend lower each year? It seems so. Which generally means, it has lower intrinsic value per share.

     

    (NYSE:TCAP) is one of the few internally managed. They proudly point it out in their literature as a big selling point.

     

    Several BDCs seem to be waiting for interest rates to rise in order to get a boost, since they are high % floating rate loans outstanding.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T, CW, FG

     

    (NYSE:TCAP) - It's moved up with the market today, not the recovery pop yet.

     

    Looking at the chart, I'll probably exit if it gets a bit over 27.50.

     

    I looked up a bunch of Puts, and none have been good options yet. (NASDAQ:PSEC), (NYSE:TOT)...
    13 Aug 2014, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    Nato believes that there is a high probability of a Russian invasion into eastern Ukraine according to a Reuters story:

     

    http://reut.rs/1mD7IsJ

     

    If that occurs, the West will impose stiffer sanctions and Russian equities are likely to sell off.

     

    *********

     

    I noticed that (NYSE:KMI) is having a good day based on Kinder Morgan's decision to consolidate all of its MLPs into KMI, a regular C corporation.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mD7IsK

     

    I only own 100 KMI shares in a trust account.

     

    I do own UBS E-TRACS Alerian Natural Gas MLP ETN (NYSEARCA:MLPG) that is up almost 4% today. One of the components in the index tracked by that ETN is El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE:EPB), one of the MLPs which Kinder plans to consolidated into KMI. EPB is up over 22% today.

     

    LMH:

     

    We talked earlier about (NYSE:DPG) earlier. I sold 113+ of my 313+ shares last week. I would note that DPG owned 800,000 KMI shares and 283,803 Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE:KMP) as of 4/30/14, the end period for its last shareholder report:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1nZ9865

     

    KMP was up over 18% earlier today.

     

    I sold the 113+ shares owned in the Roth IRA at $21.19, realizing a 38.1% total return (snapshots will be in next Saturday's post) I may look now for a re-entry point if there is a market downdraft due to a geopolitical event and there are many potential ones out there right now.

     

    The closing DPG net asset value was $23.97 last Friday, creating a -12.52% discount to net asset value based on the closing price then of $20.97.

     

    http://bit.ly/1nZ7WQm
    11 Aug 2014, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I think Russia is one of the true deep contrarian opportunities out there, I remain long.
    11 Aug 2014, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1032) | Send Message
     
    Hello South,

     

    I haven't been keeping much up with news over the last couple of days but your post got me looking around. Food for thought:

     

    http://bit.ly/1mDLg2F

     

    And if it interests you, with this site in particular, please always try to find alternate sources to verify the info and for the love of God don't read the comments because you'll go insane.
    11 Aug 2014, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    Macro: It would not make any sense for Putin to invade eastern Ukraine, given the likely impact on the Russian economy. That will not stop him from doing it to save face, or whatever macho emotion moves him to do something that is so obviously ill advised given the best case upside benefits.

     

    As to Russian stocks, they will continue to sell at a large Putin discount. Russia is a lawless state where there is no independent judiciary or press. And, that has not gone unnoticed by investors.

     

    The memory of what happened to the Yukos investors is still fresh in many investors' minds.

     

    http://bit.ly/1oqiYhu

     

    I really do not trust the accounting either.

     

    Whenever I venture into an individual Russian security, I will automatically classify the purchase as a Lottery Ticket selection. I now own two Russian Lottery Tickets, the recently purchased and not yet discussed in my blog Gasprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) and the Federal Hydro-Generating Company (OTCQX:RSHYY) which I bought at $1.53.

     

    Today, as an LT, I bought 400 of the New Zealand Oil and Gas at $.70 as a Lotto, and left a comment about that purchase in a recent SA article about that company:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Aug 2014, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Please do let me know if you see (NYSE:DPG) move into oversold. I skipped it the other day because it was too high price currently & the leverage. But it was very solid looking option for utilities.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - User7

     

    Good grief that site has a series of deep bigots posting to it. (According to them my kind is evil and plans to run the world. I suppose they mean-in my spare time.) Article does make a series of interesting points on who/what the sanctions will effect. Greek farmers... If I knew a way to short Greek produce?
    11 Aug 2014, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Yes L, I've noticed you have a tendency to run the world....lol!

     

    Stay away from those people : )
    11 Aug 2014, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    LMH: DPG also owns MLPs in addition to telecommunications and utility stocks. I suspect that it still owned today KMI and KMP given the rise in its net asset value per share, much better than the S & P 500 rise of just .28%. DPG's NAV per share closed at $24.4, up from last Friday's close of $23.97 or +1.76%.

     

    The utility ETF (NYSEARCA:XLU) was down 15 cents per share or .36%.

     

    XLU did recently pierce its 200 day SMA to the downside but moved back above it late last week.

     

    http://yhoo.it/Ve6lJV;range=1y

     

    If I am right about interest rates moving up in the coming months, then electric utility stocks may continue their downward trend that started in July for XLU. That is one reason for paring my DPG position now.

     

    If I buy back 100 of the 113 shares sold, I may do it in a regular IRA account. My general rule of thumb now is to do a Roth conversion for any security bought in a regular IRA that falls 10% below my purchase price. Before I turn 70.5, I will have moved everything out of the regular IRA into the ROTH IRA. A lot of assets were transferred in the October 2008 meltdown.

     

    DPG has done well this year, due in part to the tailwinds created by the proposed acquisitions of Pepco (NYSE:POM) and Integrys Energy Group (NYSE:TEG), both owned by the fund. I discuss those acquisitions in my June 28, 2014.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ve6nS3

     

    And, prior to July, utility stocks performed well as interest rates fell, as did REITs and MLPs. The KMI and KMP positions helped today and both have been moving up prior to today after bottoming in March I believe. I bought KMI in early June near $35 when I noted the rebound in progress. It looked like the stock was about to break out above its 200 day SMA:

     

    http://yhoo.it/Ve6nS7;range=1y
    11 Aug 2014, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    So if interest rates go down the utitilites and REITs and MLPs will likely go up. And if rates go up, they'll go down?
    11 Aug 2014, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    LMH: That has been the pattern recently. When rates started to rise last May, utility and REIT stocks fell in price. Both rose during the 2014 first half, as rates declined again, and were among the best industry sector performers.

     

    I would caution that there is a lot of loose thinking in SA articles that discuss interest rates and past performance. Interest rates are just one variable among many that will influence stock prices. The damage to REIT common stocks last year started when rates rose AND their valuations were well over historic norms. Utility and REIT stocks have also become attractive to investors searching for yield and have in my opinion become more like bond substitutes as a result.

     

    Also, the rate of increase in interest rates and the relative rises based on maturity are both important variables. Another variable is the rate of inflation. REITs can generally raise rents based on CPI increases but CPI may be rising at a far slower rate than interest rates due to interest rate normalization.

     

    REITs in particular have a constant need to refinance their debt. A typical commercial mortgage is for 5 years. While they have been major beneficiaries of the refinancing tsunami, significantly lowering their weighted average interest rate cost, a rapid rise in rates from abnormally low levels historically to less abnormally low levels could make it even more difficult for them to increase funds from operations due to financing costs rising at a faster rate than rents.

     

    It does not help that P/Es for utility companies are high by historical standards, and REITs have recovered sufficiently that their P/FFO is well over the historic norm. Consequently, a rise in rates faster than the rate of inflation has to be taken in that valuation context, rather than isolating just one variable, interest rates, to the exclusion of all others when making an analysis.

     

    Lazard publishes a REIT report that shows historical valuation measures for REITs:

     

    http://bit.ly/1qgtSqL

     

    The long term average is around 15.7. In June, the P/FFO was 17.8.

     

    (NYSEARCA:XLU) has a P/E of 18.52 and a forward P/E of 15.8.

     

    http://bit.ly/1po1Vfq

     

    I regard that as high for such slow growers, many of whom have trouble posting consistent annual E.P.S. gains.
    11 Aug 2014, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1032) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    I warned not to read the comments on that site! You will find much the same anti US - anti Israel bs on what is supposedly a left wing paper, The Guardian (the other main one I check out for intl news).

     

    I check out stories on them because I want to get another perspective than the same old we get here.
    12 Aug 2014, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    Good success with the Russian ventures.

     

    I'm not convinced yet that Putin won't invade Russia. However, that will pull broad use such as Russian telecom stocks down only temporarily.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    "become more like bond substitutes as a result. " (utilities & REITs) -- That seems very much on the nose.

     

    Rates will go higher -- but could take a while. So all that analysis of CPI vs rates is very helpful. and slow growth vs earnings.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » U7

     

    When a site has that many fruits in it's comments, I tend to look whether it's news abilities are decent at all. It seems like you've found that they have been?

     

    Guardian as you said, has it's high share of bias in it's reporting.

     

    That comments I was joking about, aren't so as much about politics... as classic "Protocol of the Elders" paraphrases. Never ceases to amaze me that people in this day, can still be dupped and swallow whole, a completely proven to be a fabrication book written to fool uneducated turn of last century peasants. I always want to sell them the brookland bridge.

     

    On the content... sanctions sure didn't take long to have an impact... though mostly not on Russia.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    A positive for the beaten down offshore drillers
    Mexico:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    In my view Brazil will also be offering opportunities as well

     

    A cyclical industry that is beaten to a pulp and out of favor with good dividend yields.. The drillers aren't going out of business

     

    I also like (NYSE:HAL) as they will be a big beneficiary of increased offshore business..
    11 Aug 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - FG

     

    Energy does seem to be the thing these days.

     

    Those drillers seem to be down for reasons? - like crowded field of companies, too many with older rigs, other oil sources are more popular... Good divs though.

     

    Wonder if that new Mexico energy initiative to open up areas for bidding will help?
    11 Aug 2014, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    there are numerous reasons that the offshore industry is down, some have merit .. however , this is and has been a cyclical business and in my view we are surely at the bottom of the cycle.. and so are their respective share prices.. so an investor is not paying a premium for anything in this sector.. (NYSE:RIG) is selling for the same price as it was in '09 , i suggest things are better now than '09 , surely the dividend is..

     

    yes, this down cycle could last a bit longer as many if not all analysts seem to believe ----as they seemingly downgrade a stock or the complete sector daily ..

     

    Many of these companies have been around for a long time and have been thru such cycles in the past and have weathered the storms..

     

    Names like (NYSE:ESV) PE -8 and (RIG) PE 9 offer solid yields while u wait -- check ut the earnings calls - they are not swimming in red ink.. ESV will earn $6 share this year and sells for under $50

     

    others have mentioned (NYSE:SDRL) as another company that is attractive - I have not done research on them like I have on the first two..
    12 Aug 2014, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    After hours (NASDAQ:ICPT) reported earnings. The stock price shot up over 50%....just happened to be watching CNBC on tv & saw the price on the ticker.

     

    Immediately sold my 50 shares. I'll take that gain....too much to pass up.

     

    That was a "lottery ticket" investment for me : )
    11 Aug 2014, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    For those interested in exchange traded debt, RAIT Financial sold yesterday a senior note maturing in 2019 with a 7.125% coupon.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1sMZoe0

     

    RAIT (NYSE:RAS) is an externally managed REIT that had a near death experience back in the Near Depression period.

     

    It has a significant ownership interest in (NYSEMKT:IRT), a REIT that owns apartments, and I briefly discussed RAIT when buying IRT in my blog.

     

    Yesterday, the offering of the 2019 bond probably caused a downdraft in the 2024 exchange traded RAIT senior unsecured bond (RFT), so I nibbled by buying 50 shares in a Roth IRA. I view credit risk to be more substantial than interest rate risk. The 2024 has a 7.625% coupon.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1sMZq5A

     

    At yesterday's closing price of $24.19, the current yield is about 7.88% (tax free when held in a Roth IRA). The yield to maturity, which assumes RAIT survives to redeem the bond in 2024, would be higher.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fU62LN
    12 Aug 2014, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue,

     

    Great luck watching just as it was up....! Congrats.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I just got back from an extended time flying my Cessna across the US and Canada, over 3 weeks and 4000 miles, saw many states like Montana -- amazing -- and western provinces.

     

    I didn't like what I saw that much; reviewing charts in many areas; so I was a seller from the opening bell, trimmed some longs, ditched (NYSE:TKC) at a loss, ramped up shorts in (NASDAQ:ANGI) (NASDAQ:GRPN) (NASDAQ:Z) - new -- and (NYSE:VRX).

     

    Now only maybe 15% net long. Decision is looking good.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    Failure to break through SPX 1940 portends a possible test of support levels (1870-1880), at least from a technical point. However, overall, the market's decline, so far, barely registers.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    What are various writers saying that a bunch of people here follow, like Jeff Miller, Beach Pundit?
    (I haven't had a chance to check.)

     

    So much depends on if a geopolitical event pushes the worry-lines enough to really push the market into a correction. Otherwise, it seems set on a trading range. As in: Earnings are good enough to invest...but economy isn't improving strongly enough to go all in with enthusiasm.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    agreed about the S & P levels u posted.

     

    I have a "feeling" that if we get there , we'll get a "scare" with a break under the 200 day MA, which may provide a "flush" to the 1850 level.. as we'll hear the cries that the bull market is over.. meanwhile that would represent a 7% dip --- and meaningless in the LT view of things..

     

    At this point i'm taking it one step and one day at a time regarding these tech levels ..

     

    tread lightly and add when opportunity presents itself..

     

    Russia/Ukraine, Gaza, Iraq , end of QE, "fed behind the curve" is all noise

     

    12 Aug 2014, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    L,
    My take on Jeff Millers blogpost this past week, was the same as some of the views here.. watch the fundamentals and avoid the noise ..
    12 Aug 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T, all

     

    True definitely, not much of a decline at that point... my observation is that we're still bouncing back and forth in that trading range.

     

    With the news getting excited in any direction it seems to be going.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    Very, very true. I still do believe, the end of QE; regardless of ones views of technical effects; will be a catalyst for some "digestion" of the large gains over prior years, and some 2-way trading opportunities. Note I'm still; if modestly, net long.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    It is always important to check the brokerage account for errors. Over the years, I have found errors that both benefit and injure me. Fortunately, I am still compos mentis and spot those mistakes.

     

    Today, I noticed that Vanguard had swept $10,000 in a MM account for the redemption proceeds of MTY, a senior exchange traded bond with a $10 par value. I owned 100 shares. While I am not a math whiz, I can multiply $10 x. 100 in my head and more than likely come up with the right answer.

     

    On the other side, I noticed a few years ago that almost $6,000 had been transferred from my TD Ameritrade account to another account unknown to me. I got the money transferred back. Then, on the next day, the money was transferred to that unknown account again. I called again and had the money transferred back to me. This happened again, and I noted in my next call that the grand jury in Williamson County may want to investigate (and I had the DA's number). Then the transfers stopped.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -
    For day trading, this looks intriguing:
    http://bit.ly/1sNRBwp

     

    Up 7% beforehours on earnings beat. Now down 18% over wishy washy management call report.

     

    Seems like for risk taking, this is bound to pop up again, unless the market as a whole turns down a lot.

     

    Disclosure: I'm not buying. I'm not going to be at the computer that much this afternoon.
    12 Aug 2014, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Do brokerages sometimes close down?

     

    "Due to system issues, access to your Scottrade account is temporarily unavailable until approximately 2:00 p.m. EST. Orders placed this morning that resulted in an order ID were submitted for execution even though a confirmed report was not displayed. Please note that calling your branch office may result in longer than usual hold times. We apologize for the inconvenience and are committed to working with our clients on an individual basis to resolve any resulting issues. "
    12 Aug 2014, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm the markets are coming back a bit now at 3:25 pm.

     

    Without the Ukraine scare, we would be seeing a calmer market, based on real earnings results and not fear. Germany certainly would look brighter.

     

    Looks to me like we are just treading water on light volume, typical for August while most traders are on vacation.

     

    Stocks do not always go up. But you can still make money if you buy undervalued stocks that have a future.

     

    Like (NYSE:IBM) (NYSE:MCD) (NYSE:BGS) (NASDAQ:MAT) (NYSE:BA) (NYSE:UTX) (NYSE:LVS) and plenty of others.
    12 Aug 2014, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    meant to put that lower down.

     

    sorry you are having trading issues L.

     

    sometimes when we get stormy weather, my internet goes down.
    12 Aug 2014, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Hmmmm. Russia up. (at least MBT is up 1%)

     

    Small caps down close to 1%.

     

    Not sure Russia has anything to do with it.
    12 Aug 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    NO !!

     

    if there website went down - they should be available by phone to conduct business..
    12 Aug 2014, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    That was stunning that day. I've added checking out other brokers to my list. Actually even more so, after tonight when they sent out 6 messages about Greenlight's investment in (NASDAQ:MU)...
    1) incorrect about which GL sold into or out of, saying they bought (MU)
    2) to correct 1, saying they sold it.
    3) to correct the correction, saying that was incorrect!

     

    Really? Whoever is posting those needs to be moved into another job. (2 emails for every announcement.)
    14 Aug 2014, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Market looks to me to about to vomit good
    12 Aug 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    RV:

     

    Oops....
    13 Aug 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    M:

     

    Since 11AM it's been in an uptrend, higher highs and lows. Pattern not broken, as yet, unless we drop below 1930.
    12 Aug 2014, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    The oversold indicators i use that suggested the 'bounce' that we got last Friday , have not been totally resolved just yet..

     

    here is just one that coincides with short term market bottoms and subsequent rallies.

     

    http://bit.ly/1sOwJVW

     

    not infallible - but I'll stick with what has worked in the past for "short term" market direction during times of extreme noise..

     

    in my view its not about any panic selling , but a sheer lack of bids from buyers..
    12 Aug 2014, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    I am watching the IWM and basing risk appetites off of this.

     

    It very much looks like a bear flag is forming, I can see a retest of 108 basis IWM. I've added some (NYSEARCA:IWM) October puts and sold (NASDAQ:FSLR) for a small gain, now I'm slightly net short overall.
    12 Aug 2014, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    "not about any panic selling , but a sheer lack of bids from buyers."

     

    Seems consistently to be the case lately.
    14 Aug 2014, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I've added to (NYSE:MBT), and think this is a slam - dunk winner for 50-100%, barring an actual invasion. This is my largest long position.
    12 Aug 2014, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • CWinn1970
    , contributor
    Comments (396) | Send Message
     
    M,

     

    I like it! I too am long (NYSE:MBT). Just collected the dividend. It was a decent 6% yield on my cost. I'd like to see it finally break and hold $20.
    12 Aug 2014, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    C,

     

    It's as blue chip as anything out there....
    12 Aug 2014, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Blakstone's CEO Byron Wien says the 2nd half of the year will be better, he's expecting a 3 % average GDP during this time. Says market will end higher by the end of the year. He's not worried about the fed, but the geopolitical issues worry him more.

     

    So in that case, if we get another dip, I'll be buying : )

     

    Long (NYSE:BX) as well, great company.
    12 Aug 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    i'll agree with Mr Wien,

     

    from my blog last weekend, where i spoke about - the often warned and dreaded year 2 presidential cycle correction..

     

    "Every mid-term year drop since 1998 has taken SPX negative for the year and under its 200 day MA. Coincidentally that would be right around my second support area of 1840-1850. So will this year be different ? Who Knows ?

     

    Here's what I do know-after the year 2 presidential-cycle correction, (if it occurs) the S&P on average has experienced a 40% return over the subsequent 10 quarters. That dovetails nicely with my call that the markets will indeed be higher than they are today. "

     

    bottom line---- its nothing to get excited about--- and IF it plays out as history suggests , end of '14 and '15 will see the continuation of the secular bull market..

     

    
    12 Aug 2014, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    so much for the argument that everyone is rushing into the U.S equity market.

     

    seems to be just the opposite,,

     

    http://bit.ly/1sAfJWE
    12 Aug 2014, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    My "argument" is not to argue with the clear price action the market displays. That's the final arbiter.....

     

    :)
    12 Aug 2014, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ...my eyes are closing so I'm come back to this topic tomorrow.

     

    Meanwhile, RD, I was wondering what the price action has been telling you.

     

    Is it moving down & correcting, or holding up and going on to gains?

     

    Personally I was expecting up today, but I don't think we're done with the mood that's caused the recent semi-dips.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Sorry I've been out of touch last couple days. A lot of travel -- with me driving, so just had to keep my eyes on the road. Dang :).
    14 Aug 2014, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    and the price action has told quite a story for those that have followed it instead of paying attention to the "noise"
    13 Aug 2014, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    To the blog; I am pleased SA has asked to publish some of my instaposts as full articles, my first. Check them out, they are both secular themes.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 Aug 2014, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    good articles, congratulations on getting them selected by SA.
    13 Aug 2014, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD,

     

    Congratulations! Good topics - Natural gas, and Russian investing.
    14 Aug 2014, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Macy's missed on earnings, stock is down in the pre-market.

     

    futures took a dip after (NYSE:M) reported.

     

    consumers may not be spending as much as thought; also slow down in housing (not in all markets, some are still hot)

     

    stay frosty
    13 Aug 2014, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue,

     

    I'd think about picking up (NYSE:M), with this dip... but it seems premature to focus on retail sector. Same as with restaurant sector. Not sure why spending seems depressed in this part of consumer discretionary, just as the economy is feeling more stable.

     

    Meanwhile, interesting that (NYSE:JCP) has been doing just fine. I'd thought the other day of getting some as lottery ticket and it's up 10% today after beating earnings. I'm still thinking this may finally be a good lottery bet.
    14 Aug 2014, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) reported good earnings; stock is up

     

    (NASDAQ:FSLR) & (NASDAQ:SCTY) up at the open
    13 Aug 2014, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I've added more (NYSEARCA:IWM) puts, this is now a major position. High conviction for a major leg down in the small caps.
    13 Aug 2014, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    So sold puts to buy at a lower price?

     

    Or how else would you play expectation of a leg down?
    14 Aug 2014, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    with (NYSEARCA:IWM) @ 112.84 , please define a "major" leg down in terms of percentage or price ..

     

    in my view i can see (IWM) trading back down to the 109 area or 2-3% from here with major support @ 107 or 4-5% lower

     

    in terms of (RUT) -- support at 1090 - major support @ 1080

     

    I note that RUT outperformed the S & P every day last week, a distinct change of trend ..
    13 Aug 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I noticed too that RUT is back to outperforming when it's up. Still weak some days.

     

    The assessment is helpful. I got in just before this last dip so disappointing, but mostly they were long term buys so it hopefully won't matter. But for the rest of getting in, it'd be "nicer" if I "happen" to hit some down days.
    14 Aug 2014, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Major leg down -- hmmm.

     

    I define that as major enough for me to make money.

     

    I'm not smart enough to know a precise target. Will leave that to the "experts".

     

    As always sir -- you are more than welcome to "take the other side" -- if you disagree with my call with such conviction.

     

    Cheers!
    13 Aug 2014, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    I found a similar thought here -- that it'd be very helpful to know what you're picturing.

     

    What's making you think (IMW)'s headed down?
    (Which in turns could give a sense of when that might be.)

     

    How much down is enough to trigger a sense of worthwhile to trade on for you? Does it matter at all, or is it based purely on assessing a direction for each trade, and not at all on how big the indicators are?
    14 Aug 2014, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    "I define that as major enough for me to make money."

     

    Ok, no price target....

     

    I added my thoughts WITH PRICE POINTS on RUT & IWM for those that wish to do just that ...

     

    terms like 'major" and such are thrown around and as such have little or no meaning

     

    $.50 on a 5,000 share block has some meaning , $.50 on a 100 share block -- not so much ..
    13 Aug 2014, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    All these guessing games on index options are just that, games. They're not investing and have about the same odds of success as a quick trip out to Vegas. But, folks love to gamble, so much more exciting than investing.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » . RD, FG, T

     

    I think we're back to the usual completely different approaches. Pure trading, vs. long term investing.

     

    Which in term makes the idea that someone should actively trade the other side, not a good measure. An investor isn't going to take up a trader's move. A trader's going to look for very different moves to make.

     

    Having a view to post here doesn't require trading/investing in something! In any direction.

     

    The challenges feel personal and distract from sticking with data and posting views on that.
    14 Aug 2014, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    T,
    some guess , & some apply a risk /reward scenario , even on a short term basis ,before they jump in the pool

     

    :)

     

    in the meantime the oversold condition and the indicators i follow to determine that, are slowly being worked off with today's action,

     

    now it will be interesting to see if the S & P can overcome the 1950 resistance zone--

     

    of course - it might depend on the fact that the russian troops are assembling on the border or pulling back,--- LOL

     

    the folly of those that follow this 'noise" will never cease to amaze me..
    13 Aug 2014, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I expected the pop up earlier this week, then some wiggling. But now I have no idea which way this is going. I'm looking forward to finding out -- it up solidly again, I'll put more $ in but mostly with divs. If that ceiling holds, then definitely in on the next leg down.
    14 Aug 2014, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    S& P peeked above the 1950 resistance level, the recent top of trading range , up some 25 points since wed. and now up against the 50 day MA.

     

    so a break here and maybe more upside OR do we go back into the trading range once again ??

     

    best to concentrate on select issues with stories, and solid fundamentals , and pick them up on weakness.. (NYSE:LVS) - the entire oil patch , etc..
    A name like (NYSE:AAP) which popped yesterday is a prime example of a stock that had come off a recent high (136) with a good fundamental backdrop and was meandering around and trending lower , down to 120 because of market nervousness over geopolitics ... now back to 131 .. and in my view can go much higher -- 150 ....

     

    the LT trend is UP
    15 Aug 2014, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I've been guessing very successfully then; for 16 years.

     

    Funny how that works. Must be luck.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    This is that trader vs. investor approach. For traders the noise -is- the focus to trade on. For investors it's a deathknell to sensible and effective investing.
    14 Aug 2014, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Unlike some; I actually put money behind my commentary.

     

    Short (NYSE:RIG), and expect a break of multi year lows, which come in just below 38, 2011 lows.

     

    I'm also out for now of (NYSE:http://bit.ly/1qPUOuU) as expect a better entry price back into any drillers
    13 Aug 2014, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Obviously the market believes a dividend cut is coming for (NYSE:RIG).

     

    I am now substantially net short in my overall exposure , after playing the oversold bounce. Following my plan.
    13 Aug 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    RV:

     

    (NYSE:RIG) last two quarters eps: $1.43 & $1.61, destroying estimates. They can't sustain a 75-cent dividend?

     

    Besides, even if that were so, when markets sell down issues in advance, when dividend cuts finally arrive, if they do, the shares advance, not decline. Now, is when one adds shares or calls, or sells puts, not adds to shorts.
    13 Aug 2014, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    T,
    and the "shorts" have to pay me that .75 div next month ..

     

    :)
    13 Aug 2014, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    So-----You are buying shares of (NYSE:RIG) today, then?
    13 Aug 2014, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    I have a full position in (NYSE:RIG) i don't need to add today ...
    13 Aug 2014, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    And now that we are keeping score, as you seem to want to do with my every short position, what is your average cost basis?
    13 Aug 2014, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    RV

     

    No. I bought shares and sold some puts last Thursday.
    13 Aug 2014, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    RD,

     

    you wish to center your attention on (NYSE:RIG) for some unknown reason..

     

    after a while this gets tiring -- BUT , one more time ,

     

    my portfolio holdings

     

    my selections for 2014

     

    my call writing portfolio are all in my blog

     

    with prices - trades that are dated for all to see..

     

    I prefer to do that than post comments on this 'buy" or this 'short" --

     

    without associated prices or targets, as it has little meaning .

     

    that practice is also tiring and "old"
    13 Aug 2014, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1vIJRBr

     

    A useful outlet for price targets....
    13 Aug 2014, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    I provide my ideas & selections with a price target based on my DD ---and suggest anyone offering opinion on a sell or a buy do the same ..

     

    along with full disclosure.

     

    too many authors here on SA..with strong convictions offering nebulous info...
    in my view that's worthless ..
    13 Aug 2014, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    F,

     

    Seriously like anyone cares about the format you'd like followed. I sure don't. Last I saw, you don't set the rules.

     

    It's open source here, don't lecture the rest of us on how to post.

     

    You don't like it, don't read it or comment.
    13 Aug 2014, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    RD,

     

    its just a matter of being upfront, transparent and void of agendas,,

     

    and I'll question ideas that 'suggest an agenda" or are disingenuous and misleading ..
    such as using the word "major" when describing a decline - without giving parameters.
    I gave u an opportunity to clarify and provide supporting data for that statement ... u didn't ..

     

    Rendering that opinion & comment useless to anyone following along .. 

     

    open source or not .. its a matter of common sense..
    13 Aug 2014, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    "i gave you an opportunity....""

     

    This is hilarious. Didn't realize the entire blog; is accountable to you, sir.

     

    Let me guess. My agenda for the handful of folks following me; is to cause a giant crash in either (NYSE:RIG) or the (NYSEARCA:IWM) by announcing I'm short.

     

    Tell you what; Let's ask the blog: Did anyone here sell millions of shares of (RIG) today because of me?

     

    Didn't think so.

     

    Didn't realize I had such influence!
    13 Aug 2014, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    LOL,

     

    "Tell you what; Let's ask the blog: Did anyone here sell millions of shares of (NYSE:RIG) today because of me?

     

    hmmm,,,, not a fair question at all as i doubt anyone is following the calls you have been making.

     

    perhaps if You did take the opportunity afforded you ,

     

    to provide info -- someone might actually take your comments seriously..

     

    are u a bit edgy -- because of the day the social media names had today ? -- or is it the "market is about vomit" remark that u made yesterday that is eating at you .. oops , I guess the market took some of this http://bit.ly/1rsrXME

     

    before the open today

     

    relax its just money ....

     

    LOL..
    13 Aug 2014, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    Good Luck
    hmmmm....
    (NYSE:RIG) for the record .. @ 38.70,,, 8/13

     

    (NASDAQ:Z) @ 135.55 up from low of 131 yesterday

     

    (NYSE:VRX) @ 110.25 up from low of 107 yesterday ..

     

    so far so good.
    13 Aug 2014, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    You are again welcome to take the other side, sir, and buy (NASDAQ:Z) and (NYSE:VRX) if you have such conviction they are sound investments.
    13 Aug 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    Hey, where did "Robert Duval" come from, and where has "Macro" gone?
    13 Aug 2014, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11227) | Send Message
     
    Robert Duval is a better actor than that "Macro" fella....
    13 Aug 2014, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Same photo so I pieced that one together. ... Macro any particular reason you changed your moniker? Do tell :).
    14 Aug 2014, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Hi bbro.

     

    Any opinions on the "macro", lol, picture these days, with QE winding down, and it being harder to find good buys?

     

    Any areas you're looking for good buys and finding them?
    14 Aug 2014, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    (NASDAQ:Z) @ 135.55 up from low of 131 yesterday

     

    (NYSE:VRX) @ 110.25 up from low of 107 yesterday ..

     

    so far so good. :)
    13 Aug 2014, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    One of my Canadian REITs, Healthlease Properties, agreed to be acquired by the American REIT (NYSE:HCN) for C$14.2:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1Ae4ww7

     

    HCN is up over 2% on the news. I do not own that one.

     

    I own 300 with the last 200 bought at C$10.2

     

    Post: May 31, 2014
    http://bit.ly/1Ae4uEn

     

    Many of the Canadian REITs are cheaper on a P/FFO basis and pay higher dividends. All pay monthly. The dividend yield at my purchase price for Healthlease is about 8.33%.

     

    Another small Canadian REIT up on that news is Leisureworld Senior Care, an owner of senior care facilities like Healthlease.

     

    Several of the Canadian REITs would be easily digestible by larger American REITs.

     

    I would not speculate on another acquisition. I would note that Northwest Healthcare has less than a C$500M market cap and is in a related business, the ownership of medical office buildings. It is the largest non-government owner and operator of medical office buildings and healthcare real estate in Canada. I own some shares bought on the Toronto exchange.

     

    http://bit.ly/1Ae4wMo;highlight=

     

    ***********

     

    As to (NYSE:RIG), the market price decline has nothing to do with an expectation of a dividend cut in my opinion, but what I would view as tunnel vision by investors who believe earnings will decline in 2015 significantly compared to 2014. While having no training or knowledge about technical analysis, the chart action does not indicate to me that a bottom is in place.

     

    The current dividend rate is being paid out of capital surplus and is a one year deal.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1Ae4uEr

     

    The funds available from that source are limited in amount. It also means that the four quarterly dividends paid from additional capital will be classified as a return of capital and will not be subject to the Swiss withholding tax.

     

    The four quarterly $.75 dividend payments was part of a settlement with Carl Icahn.

     

    http://bit.ly/1iUDcIX

     

    Historically, RIG is not a dividend payer. The price action in the stock has been good when operating fundamentals were positive, even with no dividend payments.

     

    The stock moved from $27 in 2003 to $170 in October 2007:

     

    http://yhoo.it/Wny0sy;range=my

     

    No dividend was paid by RIG in those years:

     

    http://bit.ly/1iUDcst

     

    I own just 30 shares so I am not enthusiastic about the stock over the near term, and I will be patient waiting for the worm to turn.

     

    **********

     

    Vanguard took back the $9,000 that it incorrectly gave me for the issuer redemption of 100 shares of the PPN MTY at its par value of $10. The broker had credited me with $10,000. I sent them an email and the correction was made pretty quick thereafter. I was hoping that someone here, who appreciates my comments, had gifted me $9,000.

     

    I quit assuming that anything is being done right about 40 years ago. I summarized some recent mishaps in this posts:

     

    http://bit.ly/1702HI2
    13 Aug 2014, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - SG

     

    I never realized how far off the accounting can be. Scottrade doesn't seem to have a daily running total you can look up for past days (just last couple days). I find it frustrating. Now, I'm thinking it's important to be able to!

     

    Glad you're seemingly getting things corrected. But on that past, one shouldn't have to point out connections to get their bank straightened out!

     

    On your link - there is so incredibly much that could be done to stop credit card fraud that costs all of us a lot of money (by passing it onto us, instead of dealing with it). Hard to believe how little motivation banks have to pursue any of this.
    14 Aug 2014, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Thanks SG -- your comments explain a lot of the persistant weakness in (NYSE:RIG).

     

    I am looking for a flush below the major lows of fall 2011 @ 38, which will set off large scale stop loss selling.

     

    Next major support, for those counting, is, uhmmm....20

     

    For the bulls -- where is the size insider buying in (RIG) -- if its so mispriced?

     

    Meanwhile, (NYSEARCA:http://bit.ly/T9atEI) on the highs......
    13 Aug 2014, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    Robert: The negative outlook on RIG is reflected in recent brokerage downgrades, summarized in this SA article published today. GS cut RIG to sell with a $29 price target and Deutsche Bank has a sell rating and a $27 price target.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    This kind of sentiment reflects what I referred to above as tunnel vision, a typical affliction. The underlying rationale assumes that the present and the near term future define the value of an admittedly cyclical business. RIG's valuation can not be based on peak earnings of $14.33 in 2008, postulating a continuation of the growth rate that led to those earnings, nor can the valuation be based on what may turn out to be a cycle low in 2015.

     

    It is really hard to know when the market will stop obsessing with the near term fundamentals and look ahead to 2016-2020.
    13 Aug 2014, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG -- People can talk all they want about how cheap a (NYSE:RIG) is; but I follow the money. At the end of the day, if this was so, insiders who know the business would be buying with both hands, if they believed it was so mispriced.

     

    They are not; to my knowledge, despite (RIG) trading at 2011 levels and threatening to break a lot lower. Why Not, I ask?

     

    I mean; this stock looks absolutely terrible compared to (NYSEARCA:OIH) or any benchmark.
    13 Aug 2014, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    take advantage of the "Russia troops are here , Russia troops are there" traders folly ,

     

    A name i have mentioned here (NYSE:AAP)
    just reported another solid quarter

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    synergies with their recent acquisition are coming into play

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    retail names are surely out of favor - this is one to take a look at
    14 Aug 2014, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    " Russia troops are here folly"

     

    Yep, thats why Russia stocks are going straight up. (my largest long position)

     

    Perhaps the "smart money" has already "taken advantage" and is buying cheap Russia vs. Ridiculously expensive US small caps.

     

    There is "folly" here all right.....
    14 Aug 2014, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    Please let me state again for clarification
    please include the entire comment

     

    so its not taken out of context ..

     

    "russia troops are here , russia troops are there" -- traders folly

     

    simple translation for those that don't get it

     

    Avoid the noise ..

     

    no insinuation about Russia equity markets, as (NYSE:AAP) and my commentary is US specific.. I dont believe they opened a store in Moscow yet
    14 Aug 2014, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    I will challenge misguided commentary that any retail weakness is a result of anything Russian, and I prove it 'cause Russian stocks are Rallying.
    14 Aug 2014, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    RD:

     

    Somebody actually suggested that U.S. retail sales have been impacted by Ukraine/Russia?

     

    I keep hearing how disappointing retails sales are, month after month, but then I pull up a chart, and they just keep rising at a modest pace, just like the rest of the economy, in fact, better, as they have grown at an annual rate of 5.3% in the last five years:

     

    http://bit.ly/Y3TfIQ <span class="wrc_icon wrc13" rating="{"icon":"icn_e...
    14 Aug 2014, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that poor US sales is from Russian geopolitical.
    14 Aug 2014, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Interesting chart - does look different than the mantra - sales look fine there, slow and steady upward.
    14 Aug 2014, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    (NASDAQ:ANGI) breaking down again, conviction short here. (NASDAQ:GRPN) as well.

     

    Adding a little to (NYSE:RIG) short as oil continues to sell off.
    14 Aug 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    RV:

     

    As someone who considers himself a savvy, experienced trader, I am surprised to see you expanding a short position into the run-up to an ex-dividend date on an issue with a significant yield. It's very typical for such issues to come under buying, as dividend harvesters position themselves to capture the dividend. Then, on the ex-dividend date they often see above-average selling, as those same dividend folks all dump shares.

     

    If I were even tempted to short (NYSE:RIG) (and I'm not), I'd be placing that short at the close of the last day before the ex-dividend date (makes no difference that you have to "pay" it, as the price is adjusted down after close and is covered by your short price) or at the open the following morning, provided it didn't gap down below the adjusted price. (That's why I'd make the trade at 3:59PM the day before.)
    14 Aug 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T or anyone

     

    Have you tried dividend harvesting? What's been the experience with it?
    14 Aug 2014, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    I'm sure many consider themselves more savvy and experienced than me. Regardless....

     

    I don't want to miss this trade. I think It's a good one, and I'm unconcerned about paying out the 2%.
    14 Aug 2014, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    RD:

     

    My point isn't about paying the divvy, which is compensated by the ex-dividend price adjustment. It's about timing (what traders are supposed to be so savvy about), which suggests that there is accumulation risk leading into an ex-dividend date.

     

    You think that (NYSE:RIG) is somehow immune to this phenomenon?
    14 Aug 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    T;

     

    I'm not smart enough to time anything to the day. Perhaps others, are, and more power to them.
    14 Aug 2014, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Blurb compares price disparity on (NASDAQ:LINE) vs. (NASDAQ:LNCO):
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 Aug 2014, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Late news from Fed on next rate hike - though didn't effect the market indices:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    On thoughts on this?
    14 Aug 2014, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    a fed official that wants his 2 minutes of media attention

     

    the ONLY one that matters is MS Yellen , its' the same "noise" as the russian troop follies that are playing out lately.
    15 Aug 2014, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F

     

    I'd disagree on that one. He's 2nd in command, and not speaking without consulting with Yellen. It may be intentional noise put out... but it's not about media attention for him. (He's a big name already & it's how he got the job - he doesn't need media light at this point.)
    15 Aug 2014, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    L,
    fair enough

     

    but it doesn't seem to be influencing the 'traders' at the moment ..

     

    & unless we see a real solid 2nd half - ill stick with my feeling that the first rate increase will be around June or later.. and i base that on my 'read" on Ms Yellen

     

    for what that is worth -- LOL
    15 Aug 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » F

     

    Makes sense. There's been no reaction to the announcement, so your 'read' seems to be general consensus.
    15 Aug 2014, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    LMH, FG:

     

    The chances that the Fed raises rates while the 10-year keeps falling are precisely zero.
    15 Aug 2014, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Lol. True. I was going to ask what move back -into- junk bonds is about and means. I think you just answered that last piece.
    15 Aug 2014, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    For those that like to follow the big boys

     

    the latest from Seth Klarman

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I'll note he added (NASDAQ:EBAY) a stock that i own and have written about -- it's been a laggard and so far a disappointment

     

    I also note that a few other "whales' have added the shares to their holdings in the last Quarter. I'm hoping my patience which has been running thin on this one , will pay off....

     

    to be clear , having one of these big funds on your side isn't a reason to own a stock , no substitute for DD

     

    And what do u know (NASDAQ:MU) continues to be MR Klarman's largest position --

     

    another name he added (NYSE:SUNE) ---has been on my list of DD candidates - i just haven't gotten around to it .. maybe i'll move it up ot the top of that list ..
    15 Aug 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    http://cnnmon.ie/QxDqZ3

     

    Who would have guessed this low?
    15 Aug 2014, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    DD,

     

    hmm

     

    and many here on SA are saying that the market is at a TOP , because greedy investors are "all in ", and there is "euphoria" everywhere......

     

    throw that theory out the window with all of the other nonsense I've heard lately
    15 Aug 2014, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Seems to be a change in mood.

     

    Either it's contrarian and we're at the bottom of fear and ready to turn around. Or the prices haven't fallen yet to reflect the fear (and provide buying opportunity.)

     

    My sense is that prices haven't fallen enough to reflect the increased worry. At least not with the various geopolitical stressors available to feed it right now if one flares.

     

    Then again, every time there's a dip, there's enough buying to bring it back up...
    15 Aug 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD, FG

     

    Once I posted this i decided it sounds silly. People with fear sell out of the market before they respond to a survey or a survey is published. So it seems this is as much as prices will fall... to reflect the fear levels.

     

    ...still feels like a shift has happened, and we may see a leg down. i.e. a good buying opportunity.

     

    What are your thoughts DD?
    15 Aug 2014, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    Allow me to be blunt:

     

    This hysterical market move on unconfirmed rumors of an attack on a Russian convoy just illustrate how many people are engaged in investment markets who have no business being there.

     

    For anyone with the senses still attached, look for issues with disproportional sell-offs and sell short-duration OTM puts against the shares.
    15 Aug 2014, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    absolutely ,, I like blunt :)

     

    I've made a point in the last couple of days of commenting on avoiding this 'russian trader folly" and focus on names that may be moving lower during knee jerk reactions..

     

    take these gifts that the nervous nellies are handing out..
    15 Aug 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T

     

    Any in particular you're seeing?

     

    Most of what I want is still green today.
    15 Aug 2014, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    (NYSE:LAZ) has a few call selling options at $55 strike. I haven't bought enough yet or I'd go for that.
    15 Aug 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    LMH

     

    Not my thing but retail decimated today. Energy lower.
    15 Aug 2014, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Might take advantage of the markets falling due to Russia/Ukraine conflict. Waiting to see how far we fall today.

     

    (NYSE:SWK) (MHT) are on my shopping list.

     

    I'm thinking that, with all the cash on the sidelines (personally have my brother & a family friend who fall into this category) we may never see the "big dip" everyone is expecting. Every time the market dips, before it gets going really good to the downside, too many folks start buying.

     

    There are many authors here on SA that have been increasing their cash lately, including Bret Jensen:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Must be frustrating for those waiting for the big dip.

     

    Meanwhile, I'm continuing to schnitzel away at any of my preferred stocks when they do drop. The dividends coming in allow me to do that, and harvesting gains from time to time. (NASDAQ:ICPT) gave me a very nice gain last Monday : )
    15 Aug 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    (NYSE:MHK) not MHT
    15 Aug 2014, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    (NYSE:KMP) doing great, up even higher after the pop from Kinder Morgan announcing the MLP devolvement. Yahoo!

     

    (NYSE:NLY) up today as well; here's an article by Regarded Solutions.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    (NLY) is working for me, thanks to RS I got in cheap.
    15 Aug 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    BSF...

     

    Do you know what (NYSE:NLY) is?
    15 Aug 2014, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    Putin will back down. He is a pos, but can't believe he's going all in at this point, risking world war.

     

    What an idiot. Hopefully this current conflict will result in his ouster as Russia's nouveau tsar.
    15 Aug 2014, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    Blue: Putin's approval rating hit 83% according to a July 2014 poll:

     

    http://nbcnews.to/1qcNib8

     

    It is my understanding that Ukraine has acknowledged attacking and partially destroying an armed convoy inside Ukrainian territory. That convoy was spotted by a NYT reporter within the past 24 hours.

     

    Putin is going to be around for a long time. He seems to connect with your average Russian whose only news source is Putin TV.

     

    *******
    RS probably made a good call on NLY. I prefer to play the MREIT cumulative preferred shares whose shares have a higher claim on income and whose dividends can not be cut. The preferred dividends can be deferred, without interest accumulating on the deferred amount, but the preferred dividend can be deferred only when the MREIT has first eliminated the common share dividend. And, the MREIT has to pay a common share dividend when it has net income in order to maintain its tax status.

     

    My last foray into a NLY security was the purchase of NLYPRD at $22.87 on 1/31/14 which I had sold at $26.01 on 5/13/13.
    http://bit.ly/MG7fdZ

     

    I view the typical MREIT preferred to be more risky than the average equity REIT preferred stock, which is reflected in the higher yields for MREIT preferred stocks. Generally, an equity REIT will have real property worth about twice the outstanding debt, while an MREIT will own paper assets with a debt to equity ratio of 5:1 or higher.

     

    With the German 10 year falling below 1% and the U.S. treasury 10 year declining in yield to near 2.33%, I have been buying some bonds and bond CEFs over the past few days after selling into the rally earlier.
    15 Aug 2014, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    If yields are falling, then bond prices are rising? So wouldn't you be buying as they rose, i.e. not much gain but real risk that they'd come back down again?
    15 Aug 2014, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I am in a hyper trading mode for bonds and bond CEFs.

     

    Most of my individual bonds are being redeemed by the issuers at premiums to par value. I recently replaced one of those with a buy of EMQ, an exchange traded first mortgage bond issued by Entergy Mississippi (a distribution subsidiary of ETR) with a 6% coupon, at a few cents above its $25 par value. For individual bonds, I am not even using all of the redemption proceeds to buy other ones. I have been averaging one or two redemptions per week over the past several weeks.

     

    For the most part, bond CEFs have been falling in price and rising in yield recently, at least until a few days ago when several of them started to rise some including (NYSE:GDO) which I recently bought as an add to an existing position. Some have not risen at all as interest rates have fallen over the past week or so. Instead, as the net asset value per share has gone up some, the market price has gone down (or gone down far more than the percentage decline in net asset value per share) which has increased the dividend yield (rather than decrease it). The difference increases the discount to net asset value per share.

     

    For example, (NYSEMKT:FAX) owns mostly investment grade bonds and has a large weighting in AAA rated Australian government bonds. It is trading around $6.1 now. Yesterday, it closed at $6.1 with a net asset value per share of $6.85, creating a discount of -10.95%.

     

    http://bit.ly/1lX27yM

     

    The NAV was $6.89 on 7/29 when the market price closed at $6.29, creating a discount of -8.71%. While the NAV has fallen 4 cents or .0058%, possibly due mostly or entirely to currencies falling against the USD, the market price has declined far more and that has resulted in a larger discount now compared to 7/29 and a higher yield rather than a lower one.
    15 Aug 2014, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    It's Friday, so there may be a sell off towards end of day of those who don't want to hold over the weekend in case it escalates.
    15 Aug 2014, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    L, expecting the market to tank more as we go the close.

     

    The weekend should be interesting. Maybe Putin will negotiate a withdrawal from Ukraine, except for the Crimea which he really wants....to end sanctions & avert a bigger conflict in Ukraine.

     

    Honestly, do we really care if Russia takes over the Crimea? It's been reported that mostly Russians live there anyway.

     

    Putin News doesn't allow this to air.....
    http://reut.rs/1qcXlwS

     

    Who knows what the Russians would think of Putin if they knew everything. Maybe they would support him more! Apparently, the majority of Russians think Stalin was a great leader.
    15 Aug 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    Blue,

     

    we'll see ,, now the latest "news' is that it was all falsely reported

     

    S & P now down less than 2

     

    You cant make this stuff up - LOL

     

    "russia traders folly" at its best

     

    as TACK said earlier - many people don't belong anywhere near the marketplace..
    15 Aug 2014, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    picked up some (NYSE:PANW)....I love days when the market dips : )
    15 Aug 2014, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    what would we do if other people never sold their shares??? If everyone was like me, it would be a disaster....never any pullbacks!
    15 Aug 2014, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue

     

    Though the majority of Russians who left Russia didn't think so positively of Stalin...!

     

    I wonder to what extent they feel safe saying anything against Stalin, considering a continuation of the same top folks may still hold high offices.

     

    On the link - creepy degree of corruption.
    15 Aug 2014, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    L, the ones that get out of Russia are lucky.
    15 Aug 2014, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    LMH: There have been several reports that Russian money and brains are leaving the Motherland.

     

    http://reut.rs/1oBifu9

     

    Russia already has a declining population and a below average life expectancy. Without their oil and gas revenues, the country would be a third world country with nukes.

     

    The Russians do like Paul McCartney, as shown in this YouTube performance of Can't Buy Me Love, live in Red Square:

     

    http://bit.ly/1qdfJWz

     

    I don't think it is accurate to say that media reports were wrong about Ukrainian artillery partially destroying armed personnel carriers that had moved into Ukrainian territory at night from Russia.

     

    http://cnn.it/1qdfIla

     

    Russia of course denies that it has sent any such vehicles into Ukraine for whatever that is worth, which is zilch. Russia has denied that it is supporting the separatists, exhibiting once again that the Russian government is incapable of being truthful on this or virtually any other matter.

     

    As noted in the preceding link, reporters from two British newspapers, the Guardian and the Telegraph, reported today seeing those vehicles with Russian military plates:

     

    http://bit.ly/1qdfKcO

     

    http://bit.ly/1qdfKcT
    15 Aug 2014, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Interesting - it's more reporters than just the one.

     

    If we're lucky it will look ugly over the weekend, trigger that correction finally with a great buy in point, (but turn out to be non-damaging for the PEOPLE who live there.)
    15 Aug 2014, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    so while all of this geopolitical unrest is taking place in our world -- Gold is lower ---- right !!

     

    let me add to the 'blunt" story

     

    ANY weakness in select issues caused by the words Russia, Crimea,Ukraine, GAZA, Palestine, Isreal, Iraq, Putin, (i'm sure i left some names out)

     

    Is a BUYING opportunity.

     

    it simply doesn't get any easier; when a company possesses a solid earnings backdrop and is taken lower due to those aforementioned "words" --- its like stealing ..
    15 Aug 2014, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Note, SPX / Nasdaq comes back. IWM small caps, remain weak. They have been a historical leading indicator on numerous occasions.

     

    My shorts, largely, remain, very very weak.

     

    Current list -- for those with the guts in taking the "other side" my horrible picks, if one desires -- take your shot:

     

    Shorts.
    VRX, small bounce,
    Z, Bouncing from 50 sma,
    ANGI, new lows,
    Grpn,
    King, shorted yesterday @14,
    RIG, thoughts expressed,
    FOSL,shorted 2 days ago pre - earnings,
    ICPT, shorted yesterday
    IWM, short via long dated options.

     

    Longs,

     

    MBT,
    SCIF
    THD
    Sold out of Gild at 94, yesterday, still like it long term.
    15 Aug 2014, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    I'm doing well with (NYSE:VRX) 106 - 112 & (NASDAQ:Z) 131 to 138 in 4 days

     

    i'll probable close VRX- mmm a shot at 115 but up against resistance there --

     

    Z has a way to go .. it will need a "headline" to derail from here ..

     

    no interest in going long the others at this point , but i'll watch the for a while..

     

    staying long GILD here it's about to make my first target of 100 , bought at 69 -- next stop 110

     

    thanks
    15 Aug 2014, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    RD

     

    More than happy to be long (NYSE:RIG) and short puts.
    15 Aug 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (10237) | Send Message
     
    RD, T

     

    oops , i forgot --- of course, i'm still long RIG
    15 Aug 2014, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Good luck Tack, it takes 2 for a market, as always.
    15 Aug 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2963) | Send Message
     
    wow (NASDAQ:GILD) (NYSE:KMP) on fire today.
    15 Aug 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Are BDCs doing well because there's movement back into junk bonds/high yield?

     

    And why is that happening, alongside safety moves like bonds?

     

    And gold being down in the middle of a fear reaction makes even less sense, with all the moves to bonds. Plus IWM is down, but QQQ is up.

     

    Does this combo make sense to anyone? What's it mean?
    15 Aug 2014, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16370) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    BDC's are up because they were beaten down for four months simply because somebody said they could not be in indexes any more, not because of any fundamental issues. Coupled with the fact that the market remains tepid and rates are even falling, BDC's are quite attractive, as their spreads increase, as financing costs fall.
    15 Aug 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    LMH: Are you ready for one of my short and concise responses. I am taking a break from reading "I Am Pilgrim" which is a relatively short book of around 1600+ pages on my IPAD.

     

    (NYSEARCA:JNK) was been weak since hitting a one year high at $41.8 on 6/24 and then did a swan dive fairly quickly to $40.24 on 9/1, piercing its 50 and 200 day SMA to the downside.

     

    http://yhoo.it/V27lAM;range=1y

     

    JNK has since broken back above its 200 day SMA and closed today at $41.18, up just .07% on a day when (NYSEARCA:TLT) rose 1.09% and (NYSEARCA:LQD) was up .35%. LQD is an investment grade corporate bond ETF with a duration of 7.76 years.

     

    http://bit.ly/XoecX3

     

    I would just say that junk bonds have stabilized in price and move up some in price and yield. I would not form an opinion yet that the worst is over for this bond category. The junk bond yield spread to comparable treasuries recently fell to the lowest level in seven years and the slight loss in price still has the yield premium at a low level historically.

     

    http://reut.rs/Xoeddj

     

    I have not seen an uptick in my externally managed BDCs that I own, other than NMFC. ARCC declined in response to its second quarter earnings report, rather than anything to do with interest rates, and has recovered most of that decline as of today. FSC is basically stuck in the $9.7 area. AINV has not move up much since the market reacted positively to its first quarter earnings report. Still that BDC's stock is trading around $8.5, below its last reported NAV per share and around $.5 below its 2013 and early 2014 highs.

     

    I have not seen any positive reaction from the most recent decline in the ten year treasury yield from around 2.5+% to 2.33%.

     

    Over time, I would expect a relatively high positive correlation in the price of BDCs and junk bonds (up and down). If the loans made by BDCs were rated by a credit agency (e.g. Moody's), and virtually none are rated since they are made to private companies, they would be rated junk, though many of those loans will have a first or second lien status whereas most junk bonds are unsecured. Both BDC loans and junk bonds traded in the public market will generally benefit from an upturn in the economy on the credit risk side. The decline in rates make their yields more attractive.

     

    I abandoned junk bond ETFs awhile ago since their palty yields were not worth the risk in my opinion.

     

    Instead, I have been buying and selling leveraged CEFs that generate an additional 2% to 4%, depending on the weighting of junk in their portfolio. An example of one position is (NYSEMKT:ERC) that currently yields slightly over 8% and has close to 1/2 of the portfolio in junk and the rest in investment grade bonds. I own somewhere near 900 shares.

     

    ERC closed today at $14.55, with a NAV per share of $16.43, creating a discount with those numbers of -11.44%:

     

    http://bit.ly/XoefSu

     

    I would add that I had about an $800 unrealized profit last year and now have an unrealized loss, though some shares are in profit territory. As with other leveraged CEFs, the rise in rates between May and December 2013 caused ERC's market price to decline at a far faster percentage rate than the decline in its net asset value. On 4/2/13, the discount was just -4.31% and the NAV was $17.16, unadjusted for the monthly dividends paid since that time.
    15 Aug 2014, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    Junk bonds and the associated risks I see in that market are a prime reason for my persistent defensiveness, especially in the small cap areas.

     

    From what I read also, there is no dealer liquidity in this area anymore. Not to spread fear, but if a real junk bond selloff gets going, there are few institutional supportive bids ready to provide stability.

     

    And one can bet any junk bond selloff will affect other markets.
    15 Aug 2014, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (6014) | Send Message
     
    RD: Corporate bond market liquidity has been declining for some time. In times of stress, it will become much worse and will impact the pricing of even higher grade corporate bonds, which happened after Lehman's failure in October 2008. I was buying longer term investment grade bonds at that time with yields in the 10% to 15% current yield range. In that liquidity event, the treasury bonds were going up in price and down in yield while a "A" rated corporate bond was getting hit hard and junk bonds were getting smashed.

     

    The composite junk bond yield rose to over 20% during that period:

     

    http://bit.ly/WGQOv0

     

    Needless to say, a rise in that composite yield to one-half of that prior spike high would be painful to those buying now.

     

    In 2011, I created a basket of around 30 different $1,000 par value junk bonds, bought in the bond market using a barbell ladder approach with the apex near a 2018 maturity. When I posted a table in July 2012, I had a yield to worst of 12.28% and and average coupon of 8.27%. I bought those bonds at discounts, and some were bought at large discounts to par value. This was at the height of the EU crisis and the U.S. market was in the process of correcting almost 20%. I had some CCC rated ones and a few subsequently defaulted on me. Yet I still came out ahead price wise on the bonds, and I am now losing 1 or two of those bonds a week to issuer redemptions at premiums to their par values, sometimes as high as 15%, as those companies can now refinance at much lower rates even after taking that premium redemption into account. My junk bond allocation is being decreased in this way and soon I will have only a few left.

     

    So, I would agree that junk prices will get smashed again, and it is only a question of when. The dip in July will look insignificant in comparison. The really bad correction does not look like it will be this year and may require recession with a significant increase in defaults.
    15 Aug 2014, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I have no idea when, either, but primary investment dealers have cut their bond trading -- a lot -- as they are not making any money. I also think they won't be left holding the bag, when the liquidity disappears. Their desks are smaller, so is their inventory.

     

    I see your caution -- fully agree with it. I'm trying to make short side money -- picking on those companies that might get into financial difficulty.

     

    If you have any ideas there -- companies levered to the junk bond market -- I'd love to hear them -- would pay for that research.

     

    I really think....but without evidence -- folks in this area (junk bonds) are looking at the exit door -- we will see, as always.
    15 Aug 2014, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Just a little light reading :). That gives me some ideas on bonds & BDCs. I'm going to have to read more, and ask questions... before I can grasp this. By then the Fed will have raised interest rates, and it'd be a new story!

     

    I've been away from Junk bond for same reason, because the risk wasn't worth the yields. BDCs seemed more potential, at least with good yields for the risks. CEFs and NAVs is foreign to me. I'll just keep reading your comments till they sink in :).

     

    The BDC improvement I've seen hasn't been stellar. They just stopped looking sad every day.

     

    I think you're saying JNK's been so oversold it was bound to come up one day.

     

    Thanks for the info!
    15 Aug 2014, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Thanks Tack! Also sounds like they're considered to improve with rate increases since they're mostly floating rates.

     

    A couple of mine have been down from even before the index stuff. So it's feeling like forever to me. I forgot about the turn around time.
    16 Aug 2014, 12:38 AM Reply