Land of Milk an...'s  Instablog

Land of Milk and Honey
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Individual investor. Generally using index Mutual Funds or ETFs. Trying to diversify more (foreign in particular). Pick up tips & concepts, & learn more. I'm at alpha to keep a finger on the current moods & predictions... and so I notice up coming big financial news events before... More
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #39 173 comments
    Aug 28, 2014 7:37 PM

    I've set up this blog ...as a community place to share our investing ideas. Hopefully so we all gain more ALPHA!! It's a great way for my contacts to talk to each other at the same time, not just to me :).

    .

    All topics welcome. Investing, stocks, bonds, commodities, economy, politics about economy, and social (so we know who we're talking with). Please invite other investors! Stop by once in a while, or hang out all the time. Please post your questions, make a joke, or share your insights with us!!

    .

    My money has done well since I started this blog... so I'm hoping it adds value for everyone!

    .

    Only rules of the road are not to insult others, so state your view but don't call others names or put them down. Every view is valuable, if only to convince you, you are right!

    .

    This is Chapter #39. As the instablog gets long, I'll create a new blog & post a link at the end of the comments. Here's a link to the prior, #38: seekingalpha.com/instablog/11150861-land... (I've been putting in the right links, but sometimes this doesn't seem to work correctly. You can always go to my profile, then to my instablogs, and find the latest.)

    .

    Links

    Regular poster Fear & Greed has instablogs outlining his ideas which are great! -- also SA articles!:

    Regular posters Robert Duval (formally Macro), & Eudamonia have SA articles too!

    Interesting Times has a fun Portfolio Challenge:
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-8

    Also his regular instablog: seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...-50 It's more oriented to precious metals, & economic concerns (worries) than mine.

    As for the regular posters, you'll get to know us, if you hang around!!. Several have their own instablogs with their ideas outlined well! And several have published SA articles!

    Disclosure: The author is long SPY, IWM, DIA, QQQ, LINE, CVX, F, TOT, MU, SAN, LAZ.

    Additional disclosure: ...and more... ask me if you're curious!

Back To Land of Milk and Honey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (173)
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  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Is the geopolitical over... or going to start the downturn in this trading range?

     

    Any subsectors look like good buys at the moment?
    28 Aug 2014, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    L, I'm watching oil. As the price goes down, many excellent companies are becoming cheaper. (NYSE:COP) (NYSE:XOM) (NYSE:KMP) and now (NYSE:PACD) are my oil sector stocks.

     

    Financials are showing signs of life. I've got a lot in this sector, but would be a buyer of (NYSE:KKR) (NYSE:BX) (NYSE:MAIN) and (NYSE:OAK) whenever they dip if I wasn't already fully loaded.

     

    For banks, I've got (NYSE:BAC) (NYSE:C) and (NYSE:JPM).

     

    Tomorrow I'll review all positions and see if any stocks that are at or near highs could be pruned.

     

    (NASDAQ:GILD) (NYSE:FL) (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NASDAQ:SWKS) (NASDAQ:CELG) and a few others are candidates.

     

    Never hurts to take some profits. Pretty sure that in the next month or 2, we will see a good dip. But I'm not expecting "the big one" at all. Rather it looks to me from all the economic data coming in that the US economy continues to do better.

     

    Here's a thoughtful read about that

     

    http://cnb.cx/1vTEBaz

     

    here's an explanation of what to watch in Europe tomorrow, and some economic data coming out Friday

     

    http://cnb.cx/1vTEE5W
    28 Aug 2014, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Thoughtful read? --- from one the pros nickname is

     

    "Ralph I-can-make-you-poorer"

     

    Guess he changed his mind:

     

    http://cnb.cx/1vTF7Fe

     

    Read this, and you'll understand why I question those calling now for a "secular bull" -- whatever that means. Nothing ever changes.

     

    http://bit.ly/1vTFfER
    28 Aug 2014, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    http://buswk.co/1vTGbsU

     

    And this from year end 2007, After the housing bubble began deflating.

     

    As a group, these folks are either really dense, or more likely, sales people.

     

    Cause that's what this industry is all about.
    28 Aug 2014, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue

     

    The economy seems fine. Makes me not want to miss out!

     

    I set up to buy a couple times today, but didn't push the button. Kept picturing that over the long weekend, folks won't want to be in while waiting for Russia/Ukraine to heat up.

     

    ...the other is the blurbs in a newsletter I get. ISIS is 200 yards from Israeli area and at the border crossing (in NYTimes article). Israel will want to stay out. However, it increases chances the U.S. will see it all as a threat.
    http://nyti.ms/1ljBjwe

     

    A dip in the fall, would be great for me.

     

    Didn't help that most of what I wanted was green. Cool though a few of my individual stocks were too.
    28 Aug 2014, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    "not want to miss out".....

     

    That phrase makes me nervous.
    28 Aug 2014, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    Put in context.
    a) I'm still heavily out of the market, at least more than my full amount would be.
    b) I want long term growth, so the sooner I get in, the sooner I get divs and some long term potential even if it's a ride down from here.
    c) It was words; my actions didn't match.

     

    You're focused on trading, and shorter term moves. That phrase matters then.

     

    But for longer term investing, the bigger question would be "are we at a major top with long crash & recovery to come"? Answer is no to that.
    28 Aug 2014, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Hmmmmm. How will you know when that condition exists?
    29 Aug 2014, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    I thought you were arguing for a possible correction inside a longer term bull. ...and not arguing for (i.e. seeing signs of) a major crash.

     

    For longer term investing, unless there's evidence that a major crash that takes recovery years, is coming soon... then it's not relevant that it may come some time.
    29 Aug 2014, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    L;

     

    Don't believe I said anything with "crash" in it.
    Only thing I've recommended is investors raise some cash.

     

    Just wondering your evaluation process for determining where we are in a cycle.
    29 Aug 2014, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    This seems to be going a bit in circles. You said the phrase makes you nervous. A dip or correction doesn't make a long term investor nervous. So must be indicator of a major top. Since you've said all along that's not what you're expecting... I was asking & clarifying on that.

     

    In my answer, I was giving context for my remark that removes it from the "it's a top to worry about" type of remark.

     

    My evaluation process is multi-fold. Using past experience of living through three crashes -- this isn't what they all felt like in the couple years before. The "complacency" and "exuberance" that are referenced, I can remember in each of the three. Add...all my reading the various comments back and forth, and not seeing any that wind up solidly bearish. Instead, my worry is geopolitical.
    29 Aug 2014, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    To newcomer's we're moving onto a new chapter #40. Come join us there!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Sep 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    I found this article interesting....80% of large cap mutual fund managers are underperforming the market this year

     

    http://cnb.cx/1ljo9PO

     

    It seems they are doing badly because they thought there would be a correction of well over 10% which so far hasn't happened. Thus they were either out of the market &/or spending too much $ on protection.
    28 Aug 2014, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2718) | Send Message
     
    That makes sense and is to be expected. Whenever you hold cash you don't participate in the rally and it appears many raised cash during the June/July period. Also, options, while a great tool, are a wasting asset. My preference is usually to sell calls, but lately the volatility has been too low. And while in theory puts are cheap, if the market only churns sideways or only goes down a few percent as it has done during the past couple years, unless you're lucky enough to sell out of them near the bottom they don't do you any good and they expire worthless. Do that a few times in a year when the market only rises by 8-10% and you've given up a fair bit of your gains.
    28 Aug 2014, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    what's even more troubling is that every year, 73% of these managers underperform the market.

     

    wow.
    28 Aug 2014, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    So that reinforces my investing plan even more.....buy quality stocks that pay dividends, hold them as long as the dividend is increasing....and reap the long term benefits.

     

    Toss in a few growth stocks for additional portfolio performance.
    28 Aug 2014, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    That's a factor I can add to my list of why I'm wasn't seeing many option options. Low volatility.
    28 Aug 2014, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    Anyone buying anything lately?

     

    I bought (NYSE:T) because of the dividend, but also AT&T is buying Direct TV.

     

    Another stock I bought is (NYSE:PACD). Bret Jensen mentioned it a few days back, as one of the deep sea drillers that has a big backlog of deals, and newer equipment for extremely deep sea drilling. I liked what I saw after researching the company & bought a small position.

     

    Also bought some (NASDAQ:SSYS). If you check out this company, they are making $ now & expect to make a lot more in the future. It's the best 3D printer company.

     

    Here's a company that is doing well (NYSE:AHS). AMN Healthcare Solutions provides doctors, nurses, and other healthcare workers. Based in San Diego, they are seeing an increased demand for their staffing solutions. Cramer interviewed the CEO earlier this week. Since it went down today, I bought a few shares. I'll be watching it closely & will buy more shares if the price gets better.

     

    Futures are up for tomorrow. Seems like the market is handling Putin's Crimea "incursion" in stride.
    28 Aug 2014, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    BLUE: Regarding that Russian army "alleged incursion", the "Prime Minister" of the "Donetsk People's Republic" has acknowledged that regular Russian troops, who are "on leave", are supporting the separatists.

     

    http://nyti.ms/1lkPBwy

     

    Apparently those regular Russian troops are taking their armored vehicles and trucks with them on vacation. As I understand Putin's claim, putting just a little spin on it, those Russian troops were in route with their Russian military vehicles to Crimea for some fun in the sun. Unfortunately, there is no other land route to their vacation destination other than through Eastern Ukraine. Once fired upon they had no choice but to defend themselves.

     

    **********

     

    Eurozone annual inflation fell to .3% in July with unemployment remaining at 11.5%.

     

    http://bit.ly/WFDteS

     

    The odds of ECB implementing a QE program are increasing given that stagnation and the growing unpopularity of German imposed "austerity", or what others may call less deficit spending by European governments.

     

    Hollande's approval rating is now at 17%. He had to dump earlier this week those cabinet members, including his Finance Minister, who were increasing their public criticisms of the German imposed austerity.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1lkPBwD
    29 Aug 2014, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    On reading the article, it sounds like Russia's making a lot of effort to interject itself... slightly from the sides right now. Not really a mere vacation interrupted.

     

    As in, neither side's spin was completely accurate. But Russia is in the process of increasing it's support, and presence of Russia soldiers.

     

    Obama & EU seem to be focused on sanctions not a bigger response. So it's not really an investing issue at the moment.
    29 Aug 2014, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I was being facetious. Based on the latest military push, Putin's plan is to gain a land route from the Motherland to Crimea.

     

    http://nyti.ms/1lltBBH

     

    There is no bridge over the Kerch Strait, a relatively narrow body of water between Russia and Crimea and it will take time to build one.

     

    Kerch Strait
    http://bit.ly/1lltBBI

     

    The market is not currently concerned about developments in the Middle East or the Ukraine. The reaction to the Ukrainian war may change based on whether both sides escalate sanctions to the point that Europe tips into a recession. As to the Middle East, I doubt that the conflict in Gaza has had any impact on the U.S. stock market.

     

    There is always the potential for something really huge coming out of that region that would impact the U.S. stock market. Longer term, the growing fanaticism and militancy that we are seeing in the ME, as shown in the recent battlefield success of ISIS, may threaten oil producing countries like the Gulf States (Kuwait, Oman, Qater, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia).
    29 Aug 2014, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    "So it's not really an investing issue at the moment."

     

    Came across this this evening - have no idea if this site is accurate or not:

     

    http://bit.ly/1otjBBp
    29 Aug 2014, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » User7

     

    It's an AP article (at bottom) so probably as accurate and inaccurate as any news is...!

     

    So GE & Blackrock are getting special favors in their $10 billion Russian Direct Investment Fund, which involves US investors. ...hum, who could have guessed :).

     

    Select people will get hurt, and others do very well in this whole thing...

     

    Interesting read, thanks.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Read another data point tonight which reinforces soundly the views expressed in my article, and where we are, and my strategy.

     

    Sorry can't reveal it yet, as it also sets up a specific trade idea I'd like to put on, first. It's certainly additional confirmation, on where I perceive we are in this cycle.
    28 Aug 2014, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    Some of you will enjoy the "irony" in this article. Using Schiller's own methods.....

     

    http://cnb.cx/1n2SXQz

     

    Somehow, professors often get it wrong. They don't live in the "real" world, but in academia where theories are great but rarely mirror the actual world we live in.

     

    Trust me, I've seen both sides.....would rather live in the real world any day.

     

    You can make $ shorting, and you can make $ going long. All depends where on the curve you are. Look at any stock chart, they go up & down....the more volatile ones work best for shorting, obviously.

     

    I like the stocks that have charts that are trending up, especially over the long haul. The companies that have been in business for decades & pay an increasing dividend. Sometimes it's boring, but over time you will be well rewarded.

     

    Compounding....it's concept that does work. And I don't have to sweat bullets worrying about my positions in stocks like (NYSE:JNJ) (NYSE:LMT) (NYSE:NOC) (NYSE:T) (NYSE:VZ) (NYSE:V) (NYSE:JPM) (NYSE:CMI) (NYSE:UNH) (NYSE:BUD) (NYSE:MO) (NASDAQ:SBUX) (NYSE:M) (NYSE:FL) (NYSE:ED) (NYSE:WEC) (NYSE:SCG) etc.

     

    Just to mix it up, and make life daring there are some growth stocks that can give your portfolio a lift. (NASDAQ:SSYS) (NASDAQ:SWKS) (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NASDAQ:GILD) (NASDAQ:CELG) etc.

     

    Patience is everything.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    Blue: I have not owned AT & T for awhile. Chuck Carnevale gave that stock a favorable write up in an article published today.

     

    http://bit.ly/1llmpFN

     

    He does not specifically mention that AT & T's earnings have been given a big boost by items that are unrelated to "operating earnings" such as the $7+B earned in 2013 from its pension plan assets. His graphs do use adjusted operating numbers.

     

    http://onforb.es/1llmiKr

     

    See Page 2 of 2013 Annual Report:

     

    "Operating income for 2013 increased $17,578 due to a noncash actuarial gain of $7,584 related to pension and postemployment benefit plans in 2013 and an actuarial loss of $9,994 in 2012"

     

    I would be careful using the P/E numbers shown at financial websites for this company. The 2014 4th quarter included $.78 of nonrecurring significant items out of the reported GAAP number of $1.31 per share.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1llmlFZ

     

    With adjustments for 2013 and 2012, "earnings per share totaled $2.50, compared with $2.31" in 2012. Those kind of numbers give a different P/E look than the one shown at YF's Key Statistics page:

     

    http://yhoo.it/At6Qx0
    29 Aug 2014, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    South, AT&T is buying Direct TV. Hopefully that will help increase earnings.

     

    Chuck's article was excellent. Now I have to decide what to do with my (NYSE:ED) position. It's more than double my (NYSE:T) position. Might sell some (ED), as there are other stocks with the same yield but better future growth.

     

    Surprisingly, I had a pretty good up day today.

     

    Waiting for Sept. It will be tough to get ahead in Sept, since we had an unusually good Aug. Apparently, when that happens Sept. tends to be negative.

     

    That could mean some buying opportunities.
    29 Aug 2014, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    Blue: I view AT & T and ED to be fully valued at their current prices. When I look at them, I have the same reaction as I do to most stocks that I would consider buying, aptly described by the word "blah". I have owned both T and ED.

     

    I would be in general agreement with Morningstar's fair value number of $34 for AT & T. I regard their "consider to buy" number of $23.8 or lower as too low.

     

    http://bit.ly/1wQowXf

     

    The Morningstar analyst notes that DirectTV will be a small part of AT & T's business and he is not "fond" of it. The residential fixed line business is in decline. I have cut off my AT & T land line, and I do not know any young person who even has one of those dinosaur telephones hook to a wall outlet.

     

    Possibly, I sold out of ED too soon. I sold 153+ shares in 2011, mostly in the low 50s and discussed in my blog, that generated a share profit of almost $800. I also made a profit on all of the shares purchased with reinvested dividends. Three years later, the price is about $4 higher and has been churning in a narrow channel since October 2012.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1wQouyC;range=5y

     

    The dividend growth rate is really slow:

     

    http://bit.ly/1wQouyE
    29 Aug 2014, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    (NYSE:LVS) new relative lows.
    29 Aug 2014, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    What's your thought / point with (NYSE:LVS)? To buy here? Prove your short? Comment negatively on FG's holding?
    29 Aug 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Short thesis appears to be valid, as proven by the price action.

     

    I don't understand the issue. I've previously written I'm bearish on the name from higher levels, due to Macau issues. Stock is trending lower. Just saying it continues to look like a constructive short play.

     

    Oh BTW here's a data point for those who's thesis is everyone is fearful and risk adverse. IMO; this is a lot more valid than " everyone I talk to is out of stocks" Thats anecdotal, and cannot be given much weight.

     

    On Ipo's in 2014:

     

    1The number of money-losing companies coming to the public market via IPOs has exceeded the number of money-making companies by more than 100. Only the peak of the 2000 bubble saw a greater risk tolerance among investors. See page 2.

     

    --sentimenttrader.com

     

    conclude from that -- whatever you wish.
    29 Aug 2014, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    " Just saying it continues to look like a constructive short play. "
    Then you need to add that to the posting, so others know what the posting's point is. (i.e. what they should consider as talkaway from it to think about.)

     

    Just because something's trending down, doesn't mean it still will some more. Are there indicators that it will continue that trend. Are there bottoming indicators that haven't shown up yet? MAs or something else?
    29 Aug 2014, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    L;

     

    Are you long (NYSE:LVS)?

     

    Perhaps others here are, and it is looking to break 66 area support on another firm market day.

     

    Might be relevant.
    29 Aug 2014, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I am long (NYSE:LVS) and continue to stay in the name - down 8% from my last purchase. not counting dividends

     

    - and believe the LT growth story in Macau is still intact. and Japan is on the horizon--

     

    Technically , $65.83 is the most recent low-- pretty oversold here , but a break there can bring it to the 62 area ,

     

    IF it holds here and trends higher the potential for a double bottom would be in play .
    a 3% yield now, with this weakness and they are a 'cash cow" , they have been known to present a special div. from time to time as well..
    29 Aug 2014, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    Where exactly would your stop loss be, on LVS? Below 62? What are your "rules" ?
    29 Aug 2014, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Thanks for all the details... I'm keeping my eye on them. If they don't go lower, I'll miss the entry. But I'm waiting for that 62 area on some general market dip.
    29 Aug 2014, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    (NYSE:LVS)

     

    Haven't established that just yet.. one day at a time..

     

    The LT story is still in place and there is Japan,,

     

    "Fear" sometimes creates opportunities..

     

    I don't panic - having a diversified portfolio that is following the bullish trend that is in place helps.

     

    (NASDAQ:GILD), up 55% ,since purchase, (NASDAQ:AAPL) up 28% this year, (NASDAQ:MU) up 45% , the 40-50% gain in the E & P oil names etc, etc,

     

    diversity allows one to have some leeway on a position that yields 3% and is down 8% from purchase ..
    29 Aug 2014, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » - T, anyone

     

    Are BDCs rallying today (more than other stocks, or than they have been) because of QE possibilities in Europe, and that's good for high yield? Specifically (NASDAQ:TCRD) up 1.35%, and (NYSE:TCAP) up .9%. I don't see any issue-specific news that'd be doing it.
    29 Aug 2014, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    I didnt see anything remarkable about BDC's today. My BDC's up 0.43% and BDCS up 0.47%.
    29 Aug 2014, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Those two were up unusually both for themselves, and compared to the indices. So I'm curious what that might have been about. Not that I'm objecting :).

     

    On (NYSE:TCAP) for the additional amount bought with the new shares, do you have a price target in mind?

     

    I was originally thinking $27.50, but as the macro market is stronger and it's done stronger, I'm waiting to see for now.
    29 Aug 2014, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    I have some TCAP. It's price/book is on the high side, but I doubt it's going to run one way or the other fast. There are probably others I'd buy first, now, like PSEC, after its dip.
    29 Aug 2014, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    To post my question more clearly.... (NYSE:TCAP) released new shares a few weeks ago to raise money. It went down with that. Both of us bought around then (there weren't any good options to do instead).

     

    So I'm wondering on that purchase, if you have a $ target in mind (for when it recovers from the dip from the new shares)?
    29 Aug 2014, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    Not really. It's a minor position, and I don't trade BDC's very often. I'll just milk the cow.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1llHLD4
    Then:

     

    http://bit.ly/1llIfsR

     

    And Now. Same guy.
    Crooks; I call then. Whip and drive the public. This is the 3rd guy to call for 2300+ within months, now.
    29 Aug 2014, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    another one of those "keep the same story" - just change the dates
    & MAYBE it will eventually come to pass -

     

    JUne 2012 ---on the precipice of the market breakout which led to one of the best bull markets in history he was "bearish" !!!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/1ot4Dvi
    a testament to my commnetary "why do we want to follow that now "..
    29 Aug 2014, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Hearing clowns like this remotely compare us to 2009, and the idiot from Stiffel reversing himself by 550 points, only reinforces where I believe we we on the risk curve. I fail to understand how these charlatans keep any following.

     

    It's a sales game, nothing more.
    29 Aug 2014, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    Interesting day today, while overbought in the short term the market fooled many, including me and continued higher -

     

    One would have thought with the 3 day weekend upon us and the geopolitical scene still very unsettled - traders would have exited at the close - instead it was just the opposite.

     

    as it appeared by the action in the last 1/2 hr. , that no one wanted to be short going into the long weekend....

     

    Sept. is upon us - it is a very seasonally weak period , so one would think the bears have the situation in their favor with an overbought condition--- entering a seasonal weak period.

     

    we'll see how that plays out as many thought Aug was going to be bad and the S & P posted a 4+% gain for the month , while the (RUT) posted a 5.3% gain in the same period. So that outperformance continues.

     

    No matter how it plays out in Sept - it will be a blip for the LT investor ,

     

    and as the market results indicate.. the problem is the same for the bears -

     

    if indeed we do enter a weak period here - and the equity does pullback , they are so far behind - any thought of "catching up" is the "impossible dream"..

     

    29 Aug 2014, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    three reasons - low volume month end window dressing,

     

    Market is convinced QE Europe is coming,

     

    Citigroup raised price target to SPX 2400 "within months". Third guy to give a big target.

     

    Herd the cattle.
    29 Aug 2014, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    if indeed we do enter a weak period here - and the equity market does pullback , the bears are so far behind - any thought of "catching up" is the "impossible dream"..

     

    so it doesnt matter if the cattle is "herded" now or in the future'

     

    as they say - game , set match ,,
    game over..

     

    i also heard the " sheeple "quotes from the bears at S & P 1800 --

     

    curious to hear them again - another "same story - lets change the dates" i suspect.. ..
    29 Aug 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    That depends on what you are short.
    29 Aug 2014, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    You just posted these concepts a few lines above. Why repeat? You said it better the first time.

     

    This isn't a "tell the bears they're wrong" blog. It's a show the data, and prove them wrong blog :). (Or bulls if you are so inclined...)
    29 Aug 2014, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    My posting a comment - is not invite for you to stoop to lows and try to instigate it along.

     

    FG

     

    The first was facts. The 2nd was just a negative generic comment at bears, for the sake of that.

     

    Both of you
    -- cut it out. You're both better than this. Or at least keep it in other articles and blogs, not here.

     

    I'm a girl. I don't understand punching matches, and it doesn't impress me. And my life is tough enough right now. I'm not making money at the rate any of you all are. So stop wasting my time with this... it's costing me time to focus on my returns. ...maybe I'll even contribute an idea here someday, that makes you money!
    29 Aug 2014, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    On that note, I haven't checked into (NASDAQ:OTIV) let, but last year I spotted it before a 75% increase. Since then it's dipped, but also bumped up a few times. A lottery ticket idea. ...but they seem to be a new business that's really expanding and getting contracts. So possibly one of those smallcaps, that has real potential to be a smallcap-type find.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    +1 L......

     

    But being a contrarian, I am a lot more comfortable holding my short positions when a majority are not only bullish, but insulting and obnoxious about it.

     

    Its a classic indicator, and one sees it everywhere, but especially on SA like I've never seen that attitude before, so widespread. I sense a lot of amateur hour momo driven investors have piled in, to stocks they don't truly understand.

     

    So in a sense, I don't mind....fading that complacency.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    i've posted plenty of ideas that have made $$ , please go back and review the comments .

     

    and as you stated i do post generic negative comments related to bears - and i'll repeat once again

     

    they are facts ..

     

    enjoy the weekend !
    29 Aug 2014, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    You're getting that from FG's comments? It's the same thing he's been saying since last year. And to (very ironically, lol) use his words, the market's been up since then.

     

    If you're seeing it everywhere else, that's a data point. Seeing FG comments isn't a shift in views.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I suggested that little old ME might post something to make others money. I wasn't suggesting that you haven't!!!!!!!!

     

    Let's take it off line.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I've seen it everywhere else for a number of months, certainly here in the comment stream on many different SA articles. Bulls trashing people for raising 20 % cash and getting a touch defensive -- not shorting! Wild. Amateurs.

     

    FG is just being FG.....can't change a species, Lol. Just more obnoxious than most. But it's all an "indicator" to me.....

     

    I have more short ideas than I can keep up with. Some I can't borrow stock to short, regretfully. Stuff trading at 20 times sales, 40 x sales, and never profitable.

     

    And the public can't get in enough of this stuff.

     

    It was a fabulous week to get positoned for the fall in these names.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    THIS is NOT okay "Just more obnoxious than most." It's a personal attack on someone else in public.

     

    On the rest -- thanks. Interesting to hear your thoughts on the current shorting potentials.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    RD

     

    just the facts -

     

    There will be haters, there will be doubters, there will be non-believers, and then there will be those out there to prove them wrong.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    Both the sentiment and valuations, are part of my study....sentiment can be measured in numerous ways.

     

    Example of the craziness...(NYSE:RSH) has been up 4 straight days on gigantic volume -- on a rumour of a refinancing deal to advert bankruptcy.... Doubled this week in price.

     

    Company is technically bankrupt, is burning their remaining cash like crazy....but retail is piling in....nuts.

     

    Good short candidate. Company is walking dead.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    That's not a fact. That's a motto you have. It doesn't add to anyone's investing knowledge.
    Even though it's true there will always be a variety of people with various attitudes.

     

    I already commented to RD's comment.

     

    Personally I like:
    "those of you who are complaining it can't be done, should get out of the way of those of us who are doing it."
    29 Aug 2014, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    (NYSE:AAP) its been very strong, and it's very overbought in the short term,

     

    at some point we will get that overall market pullback -- high 120's possibly ?? stocks that are this strong have had a tendency to stay strong and overbought in this market for quite some time..

     

    patience ... :)

     

    29 Aug 2014, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    Thanks FG! Yep, gotta check out other ideas, while I wait on this one... :).
    29 Aug 2014, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    RD:

     

    Just for the record, when you posted this list of shorts yesterday at 1:56PM (http://seekingalpha.co...) I thought it would be a good exercise to track exactly how all those picks performed, just so we could all get a handle on how astute, or otherwise, those picks were, so I created a tracking portfolio, as is easy to do in SA, and added an equal number of shares of each of those picks, just to get an idea where they might go over the following days. I used the exact market prices for each issue at the time you made the post.

     

    As of today's close the net performance of that short portfolio is down (i.e., losing money) by 0.84%. Maybe, these picks will prove themselves astute shorts, but they're not off to an auspicious start.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » T, RD

     

    RD - if you're interested in that, it'd be fun to see how different ideas work out.

     

    Tack - if RD doesn't want to be under a microscope, that's his prerogative. He's already agreed to not post his trades here, and to focus that kind of stuff on his articles.

     

    Anyone - who wants to post their ideas, and see how they go - could be a good way to zero in on what works well for you, and what doesn't.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    That's fine if it interests you.

     

    Note I'm not recommending Anyone follow me. Shorting is not for long term investors.

     

    2, the sizes do vary, but it's a good exercise. Perhaps message me the link to the tracking portfolio.

     

    3. I did not open most of those yesterday, so whatever PL is tracked, it's from yesterday, only.

     

    I'm not sure anyone here has any interest, being shorts, but whatever. They are, for the most part, not day trades.

     

    Most importantly, I do trade around the positions, and don't plan to post every exit (or entry). I don't think the interest is there for that much detail.

     

    They are simply, ideas that others can research, and should be treated as such.

     

    PS I never expected to make a dime this week, only to get appropriately positioned.

     

    Send me the link.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    RD:

     

    I am genuinely interested, but I realize now that I made an error. I should not created equal shares, but equal weightings by value, as the prices of those issues is too disparate.

     

    I will update after adjustments.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    Actually as the only trader around here, the details would be interesting to a bunch of us.

     

    Trading is often 60% successful trades to 40% not, so it'd be good learning to see it in action... get a sense of how different approaches used have worked out.

     

    Sooner or later there will be a big correction or crash... sometime... and having an idea of how to make a little in that environment would be good.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    RD:

     

    OK, adjusted the portfolio to reflect an equal weight of $10K per issue at short initiation. Today's results, surprisingly, didn't change much, a loss of 0.91%, the bulk of that occasioned by a big gain for WDAY today.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Sure, I'm interested to see the one day result.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    what isnt a fact ?
    29 Aug 2014, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    It's not an investing fact. It's a motto of how to think about the variety of people out there ... in the world.... and to say they're wrong.

     

    It's just that it seems to and come across as a generic punch at bears or disagreers... without adding facts.

     

    Although I think it was the prior comment, I was saying that about.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    the fact is the "bears" have been wrong - not sure why it can't be said - here or anywhere else on SA - its not personal ---- its a fact.

     

    consider this

     

    my commentary comes across as obnoxious to those that
    have been on the wrong side of the market for months/years

     

    have not participated in the market gains

     

    have tried to call market tops and shorted along the way to new record S & p highs,

     

    its quite obvious they all have one thing in common they are in fact-- frustrated

     

    some have admitted they have been bearish all along and some are closet bears , either way they chose that ill fated strategy during one of the best bull markets in history.

     

    and that is fact. I cant change that - it was THEIR decision to “doubt” and grasp at straws to make their bear case. it hasn’t worked and it’s no fault but their own and that is also FACT.

     

    In contrast --anyone that has been bullish and reaped the rewards during this bull run -- my commentary is merely FACTUAL.

     

    Obnoxious - think again -- there is an old saying it aint bragging if u can do it , and im here to remind all that the bulls have indeed “done it” , by making the correct choices.

     

    So my reply now to anyone still questioning

     

    S & P 1550 breakout (which was telegraphed to the world On march 2013) to S & P 2000

     

    case closed
    29 Aug 2014, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Why is your postings dependent on telling others they are frustrated? And they lost? (Only your postings on this topic.)

     

    Sure bears didn't do well. The various bear facts they used didn't pan out. (Listing them is facts.) But that's the end of the thought. The rest is about other people's success or failure. That's not fact, that's a ribbing it at others.
    29 Aug 2014, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    It depends on your strategy and benchmark, to say bears haven't done well. IWM is up all of 1% YTD, that's been my focus index this year. Yeah, no profits, but hasn't gone anywhere.

     

    There are numerous stocks that were good shorts in February, which haven't even come back this year, some of the monumentum names.

     

    Certainly the "bears" on the US economy who expressed that by buying (NYSEARCA:TLT) have had a great year, up 18%, better than any index. Most expected higher rates this year, and a lot of people bet on it ---

     

    It's a market of stocks, and many strategies.

     

    People, however, are entitled to their opinions --
    29 Aug 2014, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    I was referring to the same bears as FG -- those that have been worried since 2009 and not buying much of anything. ...sometimes some gold. And fretting the whole time, and pouncing on anything / anyone going long.

     

    None of it is about this year's movements. And none of it was about traders who thrive on the wiggles. Nor about shorting specific items.

     

    I've seen viscous comments in MarketWatch about how we need to be scared and hide and sell out of everything... only to figure out the person wasn't even in the market. They're just still traumatized from 2009 and posting to share their upsets from back then a whole 5 years later.

     

    That's harmful to long term investors who need to be in the market if they're going to make it to retirement. So I can understand FG's upset with them. I myself got to SA, listened to some bears (which resulted in mistakes, not fear, as the problem)... and lost easily 20% gain opportunity... compared to if I'd just done what I'd came to do by adding to my basic mix of ETFs without thinking any further.

     

    Raising cash during highs, as a strategy for long and short termers, is different than the very worried bears that FGs been fighting in SA for a bunch of years now. (FG's been using & teaching me & others here that raising cash strategy all along.)
    29 Aug 2014, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Sorry. I sure was under the impression this whole discussion was referring to the current year.

     

    All the commentary on this blog, is about investments during the current year, which would seem to be relevant.
    29 Aug 2014, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    Funny, this morning I did another review, fundamentally, of each short position, and the only one I'm not sure of, would be (NYSE:WDAY). Never mind they trade at 20x sales, will be losing substantial money for the next 2 or 3 years, the sales and operational trends are strong. They are executing, so then it's just valuation, which doesn't matter at the moment.

     

    Every other short, arguably, has deteriorating fundamentals or some other reason, other than pure valuation, to short.
    30 Aug 2014, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    It's ok. FG's commentary is exactly what I am reading all over SA, and it's a good confirmation to me among many other indicators. Lines up well.

     

    The "case closed" on all analysis and consideration of risk, is EXACTLY where we are.

     

    FG is simply mindlessly following the herd. That's not an insult but FACT. That's what people do, at this stage in the cycle. They buy, because it's become the "thing to do", and is stage shows up in every asset, and in every cycle.

     

    No "this time is different" -- nothing is ever different. No "secular higher profit margins" as we are reading today, "secular higher PE ratios".
    30 Aug 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    "FG is simply mindlessly following the herd. "

     

    "They buy, because it's become the "thing to do", and is stage shows up in every asset, and in every cycle."

     

    perhaps u need to go back and review my commentary here on SA before make those statements..

     

    I suggest you keep your commentary generic and not personal.. ....

     

    here is what the "herd" did in July -

     

    http://bit.ly/1wTIY9P

     

    and then we saw the S & P up over 4% in Aug and the (RUT) over 5% in Aug.

     

    funny how that worked out ..
    30 Aug 2014, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    T,

     

    interesting results

     

    thanks
    30 Aug 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    Tack,

     

    Just curious. Are you genuinely interested in the performance at this juncture of what I think you referred to as "trash" shorts?

     

    Do you agree with attempting to play a potential corrective period in this way?

     

    Or is this simply an attempt to engage in some entertainment if the market continues or squeezes violently higher, which would almost certainly adversely affect any short position, regardless of its merits?

     

    Just want to confirm your intentions and motivations. I don't mind IF this is for a constructive, and educational purpose.
    31 Aug 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    RD:

     

    You are vocal in your commentary, doubting the market and and expressing your own disdain, e.g., saying everybody is just a "herd," so don't get overly sensitive if someone tracks the performance of your publicized contrarian shorts. That's life in the public domain.

     

    I am interested to follow some of these because it allows me to compare the performance of both the "trash" and other less obvious short choices, as against the backdrop of the overall market and gives me a "feel" for what the market, overall, is thinking. I can't affect the results, just follow and note them, so if you become either a hero or a goat, it's fully beyond my influence.
    31 Aug 2014, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Can you post the link?
    I may want to try out some things too.

     

    It's a fair question. If the point is to goad at RD, than this isn't a good idea. If the point is to pin it down to see better what the trades are and how they work against the market backdrop at given points, whether or not any of them turn out well, then this could be very informative for every one.

     

    Including, with some questions and thoughts coming in, for RD and any of us, it could re-direct us into some better trades (or better buy-in/buy-out points for long termers.)
    31 Aug 2014, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    As the old saying goes, "beauty is in the eye of the beholder."

     

    I can't post a link because the portfolio was created in SA's portfolio function, which doesn't have a sharing feature. In fact, I have been in touch with David Jackson on exactly that topic, and he told me they're working on it.

     

    I can only post the info herein.
    31 Aug 2014, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    That was essentially my point L.

     

    I am happy to post contrary ideas, but it is such a popular sport all over SA, not to post productive ideas but to tear down and mock others for sport.

     

    Its very sad some take a peverse pleasure in the losses of others, then at the same time refuse any accountability for their own errors.

     

    Hence if the ideas are evaluated as a sharing tool, I don't mind --- respectfully.

     

    People want to come on and highlight the losing idea while ignoring the profitable ones, I will not support that.
    31 Aug 2014, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    L and T,

     

    After further thought,

     

    I'm not publicizing my shorts over here. We've been over this regarding individual picks, and if I discuss them at all, it will be on my article or instablog. They are not recommendations nor appropriate for the long term investor.

     

    I therefore question what the point is in discussing them here.

     

    If you wish to track and publicize the running result here, that's your perogative as long as it meets the respect standard L would like to see.

     

    However I am not intending to comment, and as I said I may cover all, or part of positions, without notice, as they are, volatile. It's been made clear to me this is not a trading blog, and there is no interest.

     

    Just so it's clear, whatever you publicize may not remotely track my own results.

     

    They are simply ideas, and everyone is on their own as far as what they do with them.
    31 Aug 2014, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    "but it is such a popular sport all over SA,not to post productive ideas but to tear down and mock others for sport."

     

    However , i would say that most here on SA would believe that going back and "revisiting" a remark here on this blog or anywhere else on SA has merits and is not mocking for sport at all.

     

    Revisiting market calls, & individual stock selections helps an investor improve their research, decide what went right and what went wrong.

     

    Shall I post a congratulatory comment in an article where the author has consistently shown to be wrong about the direction of the market..?? shall i pat them on the back and say good Job.?

     

    OR should one use common sense , question what is being offered NOW, and use the PAST to show that whats being offered at the moment is at the very least questionable.
    31 Aug 2014, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .

     

    " "beauty is in the eye of the beholder.""

     

    It's in the eye of this blog creator. I've asked RD to be respectful of my wishes for respectful postings. That extends to everyone.

     

    As the only shorter and trader on the blog, his trades get attention. We're all curious how they work, and what works out. His fast moves through things without prices, leave you wondering what worked, (and what not to do.)

     

    I ask that any reference to anyone else's trades, be done politely, such as seeing what THEY think about their own trade. And NOT (NOT in caps) done to point out that they're failing. Even pointing if out seems useful for others to be aware of.

     

    ...While other's strengths and weaknesses are important to know, the posters here aren't dumb! If a trade is discussed respectfully, and without pointing out "the flaws" for the sake of pointing them out & ribbing at someone, we can all figure out for ourselves what other investors' strengths and weakness are. Respect is more important than revealing. ........if the blog is to be a useful place that I want to visit.

     

    On RD's trades, if he wants to post them elsewhere, then the debate on how they're doing should be elsewhere!

     

    If an idea is posted here, it's open for debate & critiquing here, not just agreement. But stick to facts, and the idea, NOT to the quality of the poster.

     

    RD - on this not being a trader blog. True in a way, but there is curiosity on understanding the trading perspective, and several people here do use options from time to time, and make shorter swing trades.
    31 Aug 2014, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    L,

     

    I get it but I am not posting shorts, or shorter term trades, here. They are not recommendations. If one would like to discuss my trade ideas, come to my article.

     

    I'll repeat, they are ideas I posted on the article, entries and exits are important. Anyone who chooses to short them, they are on their own. Look at the charts, and the trends are clear on the company's posted.

     

    And as far as "market calls" that can be "revisited" evaluated, whatever, here is my "current" market call -- and this rescinds everything else prior.

     

    That means, bringing up commentary from 1 month; I week ago, I year ago, is totally irrelevant, because I'm clarifying it, right here.

     

    My call is a recommendation, as posted on my article, to reduce risk by shifting some allocation from higher beta positions, and raising at least 30% cash // or reduce exposure equivalently /// for better future entry levels. That's it.

     

    Essentially, what is written in my article.

     

    No targets on SPX or IWM, other than IWM continues to lag, so be aware if invested there.
    31 Aug 2014, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    "If an idea is posted here, it's open for debate & critiquing here, not just agreement. But stick to facts, and the idea, NOT to the quality of the poster."

     

    That's about as sensibly expressed as can be in a single sentence.
    31 Aug 2014, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    "That means, bringing up commentary from 1 month; I week ago, I year ago, is totally irrelevant, because I'm clarifying it, right here."

     

    I disagree ----

     

    Prior history is plenty relevant--

     

    to assist in making future decisions..

     

    Why should the readership just put their heads in the sand and drown out what have been bad market calls by many here on SA and elsewhere ..

     

    When i ask this question repeatedly - "why should anyone follow them now ? (referring to the chronic naysayers)

     

    Its curious how I never get a response.

     

    So Please, anyone --

     

    if an author has consistently posted article after article , and has continually been incorrect with their market strategy-- please tell my why at this point in time should anyone pay attention.

     

    and that goes to the point of going back and revisiting prior commentary as a way of making future decisions on the markets. .
    31 Aug 2014, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    Past history does matter when judging what to think of someone's ideas. And it's a good point to look up the past.

     

    DV's just trying for a clean slate here. He hasn't always been as clear in writing or with his conclusions as he'd have liked to have been. So he wants to start clean from here. That's fair.
    31 Aug 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    So, FG:

     

    That go 2 ways? If we enter a corrective period and some long positions go south ,you are fine with accountability?

     

    I notice no year end targets on your blog, btw. What about next year? You say -- the market will be "higher down the road, than today".

     

    Think we all agree with that. How convenient.

     

    How about some specifics, please?

     

    You want to evaluate me for being cautious on IWM this year -- up 1% -- and bullish on TLT this year -- up 18% -- be my guest.

     

    Those have been my predominant market calls from early in the year -- and I stand by them.
    31 Aug 2014, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    RD,
    your comment :
    " You say -- the market will be "higher down the road, than today"."

     

    Yes, & I've said that for quite some time , in response to all of those that have continually
    shorted the market
    tried to call tops all along the way -
    or were continually citing that the market is about to collapse, because
    housing is no good,
    retail is dead ,
    the consumer is done,
    or the fed is responsible for everything
    the bond market is telling us something,
    the yield curve is flat, the vix is too low,
    everyone is "all in" and complacent
    this is all a mirage..

     

    so yes I have said that ..

     

    and for the record my commentary for a higher market down the road still applies today ..

     

    It's amazing how that simple statement bothers the bears so much . So be it ..

     

    as far as 2015 - i'm still working on 2014 . thank you -- so far so good.

     

    your comment :
    "Think we all agree with that. How convenient."

     

    really, we all agree with that ??-- HMMM

     

    no targets in my blog ?- please read again..

     

    i give out targets constantly - -- yesterday - (NYSE:AAP) 150 ,, so please revisit....

     

    you have good timing - as i just finished the Sept 1 update on my '14 stock selections along with the report card on the stocks that i have written abut here on SA.

     

    http://bit.ly/1zZeDD1

     

    congrats, if you made the call on TLT in Jan - do u have a link to that ??

     

    I do remember we had a conversation on another blog here in Dec '13 , early Jan and many of the same remarks you are making today regarding the market were made then.
     I don't recall TLT though.

     

    Anyway , it's fine if you wish to follow that same strategy, your call,

     

    but please don't take out any frustrations on me , i have shown enough of evidence to back my case -- plenty of history to go with it -- & now to confirm that

     

    here is S & P 2000...
    31 Aug 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1zZfaot

     

    Easy enough to find. IWM flat since then.
    TLT up $10, plus dividends.

     

    I don't trade the SPX. Not relevant.

     

    I don't see MARKET calls for the remainder of 2014 on your blog anywhere. Specifics. Prices. Dates. No "this might pull back, or might advance".

     

    How about some rock solid SPX targets for year end 2014?
    31 Aug 2014, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    I'm incredibly bored with this topic
    (of who gets to say what about whom. And all this proving oneself.)

     

    Topics done enough, don't you all think?

     

    Maybe a little charred at the edges.

     

    I've laid out some ground rules. And if they weren't clear enough, then it will be up to my judgement as we go along. And you can yell at me then that my writing's not clear enough.

     

    So I'm thinking... I'm going to move future discussion about what's allowed on the blog, & who's past calls are under scrutiny -- to the popcorn blog, with a link from here. Or post there directly yourself.

     

    So back to investing...!!
    31 Aug 2014, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG, DV

     

    I don't care what market calls either you have or don't have on your blogs!

     

    Go to those blogs and post a complaint if it doesn't have what's needed to assess someone's track record.

     

    it's not relevant here!!! Not at this time.
    31 Aug 2014, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ^^&&&****

     

    Here's the popcorn blog link... Found it!!
    http://bit.ly/1gbtbvj

     

    If you feel like it...
    31 Aug 2014, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    There will be haters, there will be doubters, there will be non-believers, and then there will be those out there to prove them wrong.
    31 Aug 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    http://cnn.it/1otd7Cw

     

    Something to watch that hasn't received much attention.
    29 Aug 2014, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    RD: When I navigate to a news website, a news story about Ebola is front and center. While the current outbreak is the most widespread one, it is not an easily transmitted disease. The drug ZMapp, given to the two U.S. aid workers who recovered from ebola, has now been successfully tested on 18 monkeys, all of whom were given lethal doses of ebola, and all are now disease free. The monkeys who did not receive the drug died.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1prx8j8

     

    http://nyti.ms/1prx8jd

     

    *********

     

    On another subject, J.P. Morgan sees the potential for a "Lehman moment" in the Russian stock market, a 50% downside, with a worsening of the Ukrainian war.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1n4E6Fh

     

    The U.K. will be attempting to convince the other European countries to bar Russia from the SWIFT banking system which would be a major escalation in the sanctions:

     

    http://bloom.bg/1prx8zx

     

    The Ruble looks like it may want to do a moonshot in losing value vs. the USD:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1nSi0XF;range=2y

     

    *************

     

    I thought that the earnings report from (NASDAQ:PSEC) was sufficiently horrible that I sold my 100 shares in a Roth IRA, bought in November 2012 at $10.2, at $10.65. I will have a discussion and snapshots in my next weekly blog. The total return was 30.3% over about 21 months. I still own shares in a taxable account where I am near break-even due to a few purchases below $10.

     

    I view it as probable that PSEC will cut the dividend long before it reaches the pre-cut level in existence before the last slash in 2010, when it went from a $.41 quarterly dividend to a $.10 monthly dividend rate.

     

    PSEC Dividend History
    http://bit.ly/18dbPH4

     

    Based on recent results, PSEC is falling behind in earning its dividend. Net investment income was reported at $.25 per share, while the company paid out over $.33 per share in dividends during the last quarter. I noted earlier that this BDC was not earning its dividend with recurring interest revenues, and was highly dependent on origination fees to cover the dividend.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1prxbeQ

     

    It is no secret that I view externally managed BDCs with disfavor. PSEC's net asset value per share continues to trend down, and its market price will hug net asset value per share within a few percent. The closing price today is below the last reported net asset value per share of $10.56, down from $10.72 as of 6/30/13.

     

    PSEC Historical NAV Taken From 10-Qs:
    http://1.usa.gov/1prxbv8

     

    12/31/2005: $14.69
    http://1.usa.gov/1prx8zC

     

    12/31/2006: $15.24
    http://1.usa.gov/1prx8zG

     

    12/31/2008: 14.43
    http://1.usa.gov/1prx8PW

     

    12/31/2010: $10.25
    http://1.usa.gov/1prx8PY

     

    12/31/12: $10.69
    http://1.usa.gov/1prxbvg

     

    12/31/13: $10.73
    http://1.usa.gov/1rxvIBx
    29 Aug 2014, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Thanks for the info. On the (NASDAQ:PSEC) link, I've done my doggiest to dig through it.

     

    1) Is NAV audited so we can know it's right?

     

    2) How can you tell their getting their dividend covered through origination fees? Obviously they're paying out more than their NII, so it's coming from someplace. I found reference to the origination fees, but not something that clearly said an amount that told me it was doing the covering for them.

     

    3) By origination fees, am I right to assume that's like a house loan... there's bank income from interest on the loan, and there's that origination fee you pay them when you first get the loan?

     

    4) You've said that externally managed BDCs have too many fees or benefits paid to profit their those running it. Do you think that's contributed to the decline in per share NII for div at this time? For instance by changing the average shares through options or something? Is there any spot that concretely is giving you this information?

     

    I'm asking so I can learn more and better how to assess stocks.

     

    On (PSEC) the earning miss was a little too big for me. I've loved learning the "buy the bad news" ideas, but this seemed a little to close to changing the fundamentals to be a straight buy signal.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Oh and can you tell me why they write in the first paragraph:
    "NII increased by 10% and NI increased by 44% year-over-year on a dollars basis.

     

    ...just after giving numbers where clearly NII and NI decreased year-over-year on a per share basis. They don't give any statement right there, that shares changed dramatically. (That's why I was thinking their management may have gotten quite a bit of share options or something that's impacted the weighted average shares, and the NAV.) ... not that I have a clue how this works :).
    29 Aug 2014, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    LMH: As of 12/31/13, Wells Fargo noted that PSEC was covering only 79% of the dividend through recurring interest revenue paid in cash.

     

    Click Chart at Article:
    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    As to the quarterly report, I know that bad news is going to be delivered when the company starts talking first about something other than the quarterly results, which is what PSEC did. The first part of the release dealt with the fiscal year results.

     

    The quarterly result was net operating income of $.25 per share, below the consensus estimate of $.32.

     

    This SA article provides a good synopsis of that report and PSEC's reliance on non-interest income to cover the dividend:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The main problem was explained in this sentence: "NII and NI decreased primarily due to a decrease in originations from $1.3 billion in the March 2014 quarter to $444 million in the June 2014 quarter, resulting in a decrease in structuring fees from $24.5 million in the March 2014 quarter to $5.2 million in the June 2014 quarter."

     

    I believe net asset value is determined by an "independent" appraiser. I recall reading that in an Annual Report.

     

    Regardless of how it is determined, the market sees a big difference in externally and internally managed BDCs as shown by how far the market price can stray from net asset value per share. For externally managed BDCs, the market price will hug that number and will consequently decline over time as the net asset value per share declines due to a variety of reasons, including the defaults inherent in lending money to high risk borrowers and the excessive compensation paid to those external managers who have an incentive to grow assets under management even if the investments over time end up resulting in lower net asset per share numbers.

     

    Consequently, due to overall tendency for the net asset value to decline over a long period, which accelerates during a recession, I am not a long term owner of any externally managed BDC. I am renting those stocks, mostly for a year to two years, buying at discounts to net asset value per share, harvesting the dividends, and then exiting the position for whatever profit is possible under the circumstances. And, once I am successful in that exit, I will simply be patient for the next buying opportunity. I am confident that PSEC will give me plenty of those. I am not impressed.
    29 Aug 2014, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    > "I know that bad news is going to be delivered when the company starts talking first about something other than the quarterly results, "

     

    I was reading thinking, they sure are proud of themselves (pumping themselves up), especially with dropping numbers. So good, I picked up on it - now I know what to immediately suspect...

     

    <"he main problem was explained in this sentence: "

     

    I saw that sentence, but wasn't sure what it meant. So good to know.

     

    >"tendency for the net asset value to decline over a long period, ...am not a long term owner of any externally managed BDC. "

     

    What is the behavior of NAV on the couple of internally managed BDCs?

     

    When you look for entry points on externally managed BDCs, what NAV vs. price situation are you looking for?
    29 Aug 2014, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    SG:

     

    Just for reference, do you have a handy list of BDC's managed internally (e.g., MAIN, ACAS) and externally (e.g., PSEC, ARCC)?
    30 Aug 2014, 06:00 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    Tack:

     

    This site has a comprehensive list. There are only a few internally managed BDCs.

     

    http://bit.ly/1CcNtfG
    30 Aug 2014, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    LMH: I will look at historical market price spreads to net asset value per share whenever I make an investment.

     

    While they may be an easier way to do it, I will look at the BDC's 10-Q filings which will generally have the net asset value per share information somewhere between pages 1 to 3.

     

    You first need to bookmark the SEC's site where you can search for filings by company name:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/WiR8CG

     

    I entered Triangle Capital. The first entry was probably the one that I want so I clicked it. Near the top is a box "filter results" and I entered 10-Q.

     

    For the latest filing, I see that the net asset value per share was $15.95 as of 6/30/2014 down from $16.1 as of 12/31/13. That provides me with some material information already.

     

    I will then check the historical price information available at Yahoo Finance (click historical prices near the top left hand corner)

     

    I see that the stock closed at $28.37 on 6/30/14:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1CcRGjs

     

    Needless to say, compared to an internally managed BDC, the price was then at a huge premium spread to net asset value per share.

     

    I do not own TCAP.

     

    I would then follow that procedure going back in time.

     

    I opened the 10-Q for the Q/E ended 3/31/11 and I see a net asset value per share of $13.42, up from $12.09 as of 12/31/10.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1CcRGjw

     

    So since 12/31/10, TCAP has increased NAV from $12.09 to $15.95 as of 6/30/14. Offhand, I do not recall any externally managed BDC coming anywhere close to that percentage increase. The difference is rewarded by the market in the share price relation to net asset value. PSEC with its declining NAV is now selling below net asset value per share while TCAP's price is well above it.

     

    As to entry points for externally managed BDCs, I will simply look for a price below net asset value per share and generally I will not have to wait very long. I will make an exception for (NASDAQ:ARCC) which I view as the best one. Its current price is slightly above its last reported NAV per share of $16.52.

     

    I will also buy in small lots of 50 or 100 shares. If I bought PSEC at $10.2 next week, which is too high for me now, I might buy say 50 shares and then average down with a 100 share lot when and if the price sinks below $9.8 and then another 50 share lot below $9.5. Then, if I am fortunate, I collect the dividends for a year or two and the market gives me an opportunity to sell that highest cost lot at a profit.

     

    At the moment, the only externally managed BDCs that I own, showing positive upward momentum in price, are (NYSE:NMFC) and (NASDAQ:AINV).

     

    My last purchase of AINV was below $8 in May and it has trended up to $8.77 since that time.

     

    4. Bought 100 AINV at $7.95-Satellite Taxable Account
    http://bit.ly/1nCbTHJ

     

    When discussing that purchase, I listed some historical net asset value per share numbers for this externally managed BDC:

     

    3/31/2013: $8.27
    3/31/2011: $10.03
    3/31/2007: $17.87

     

    The last reported NAV was $8.74 as of 6/30/14, so AINV is at least moving in the right direction at the moment which explains the recent positive price action.

     

    AINV was paying a quarterly dividend of $.52 per share in 2008 which was slashed by 50% in the 2009 first quarter. The dividend was thereafter reduced from $.26 to $.20 in the 2012 first quarter and has remained at that level since that time.

     

    Last Friday, AINV closed at $8.77, just three cents above its last reported NAV. The price is unlikely to stray too far above NAV.
    30 Aug 2014, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    If I put a symbol in (), I have noted that I can not edit the comment without destroying what I have written so I am going to quit doing that.

     

    I had a brain malfunction, something occurring with increasing frequency as I age. I would like to call the error a typo but unfortunately that kind of characterization would work only when presented to a typical inhabitant of the Motherland.

     

    I need to revise this sentence:

     

    "Needless to say, compared to an internally managed BDC, the price was then at a huge premium spread to net asset value per share."

     

    The correction would substitute "externally" for "internally".
    30 Aug 2014, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    SG:

     

    Thanks for the list and site. The BDC list seems to show the management status of some issues, but makes no comment on others. Guess it's back to the research mode on those.
    30 Aug 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    SG:

     

    Given your repeated comments about disfavoring externally-managed BDC's, versus those internally managed, I was curious to see if there was/is any correlation in the five-year total return of those respective classes. Here's what Ycharts shows for the five-year returns for the following:

     

    Internally Managed:

     

    ACAS - 522.1%
    HTGC - 149.9%
    KCAP - 198.2%
    MAIN - 273.8%
    MCGC - 103.6%
    TCAP - 307.0%

     

    Externally Managed:

     

    AINV - 57.7%
    ARCC - 190.2%
    BKCC - 98.6%
    FSC - 54.6%
    GLAD - 101.8%
    MCC - 51.4%
    PNNT - 140.0%
    PSEC - 81.1%
    TICC - 226.2%

     

    The results would seem to validate, quite evidently, that your predilection for internally-managed BDC's is justified.
    30 Aug 2014, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    TACK: There is also this SA article which also lists fees. The author lists the following as internally managed: MAIN, KCAP, TCAP, MCGC, HTGC and ACAS.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The mere fact that the BDC is internally managed will not guarantee of course successful investments. It just eliminates a set of problems that the market sees with externally managed ones.

     

    If the information is not in either website, I will generally go to the BDC's website which will generally provide the information. No information is provided about MVC Capital in the first link that I gave you, but their website tells you right away that it is externally managed.

     

    http://bit.ly/1n9sL6I

     

    The risk factor section in an Annual Report for an externally managed BDC will have a "conflict of interest" discussion which will not be found in an internally managed one.

     

    MVC Capital at pages 32-33:
    http://1.usa.gov/1n9sNvm
    30 Aug 2014, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    Tack: The market makes a distinction between externally and internally managed BDCs by giving the internally managed ones, who have had some success in growing NAV per share, a premium valuation. That allows them to sell stock at premiums to net asset value whereas the externally managed ones are lucky if a stock issuance announcement does not knock the price below NAV. That is important longer term.

     

    PSEC has frequently sold a lot of stock below NAV per share. Triangle Capital, on the other hand, just sold stock at $26.85, well in excess of its last reported NAV of $15.95.

     

    http://bit.ly/1na20z8

     

    Most of my buys of externally managed BDCs have occurred at below net asset value per share and have taken place after an announced share offering. Usually, my purchase price is below that share offering price. I recently bought, for example, 200 FSC at $9.78 after the company priced an offering at $9.95.

     

    News Release 7/11/14:
    http://bit.ly/1na1Zen

     

    The last reported net asset value per share was $9.71 as of 6/30/14. So that buy was below the offering price and the last reported NAV per share. I will exit the position in my normal way. I doubt that I will hold for more than two years and will just try to escape with a profit after harvesting those monthly dividends. FSC did raise its monthly rate recently after cutting it several times.

     

    Fifth Street Finance Corp. Dividend Date & History
    http://bit.ly/1jmkWOA

     

    I also own a small position in PNNT bought when the price fell to $10.84.

     

    May 2014
    http://bit.ly/1g5vjPT

     

    On 5/7/14, PennantPark reported a NAV per share of $11.13:
    http://1.usa.gov/1iYIJmv

     

    The last reported NAV was $11.33 as of 6/30/14, up from $10.49 as of 9/13/13.

     

    I sold my position late last year when the price hit $11.92. The last reported NAV number then was $10.49. This discussion is more in response to LMH's questions about how I make decisions on these externally managed BDCs.
    30 Aug 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    Great list - very interesting indeed. Internal vs. external really matters.

     

    What's counted in total return? Price today 5 years ago, to yesterday's, plus divs?
    31 Aug 2014, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    Yes.
    31 Aug 2014, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    The only risk factor I could see, at this time, would be economic due to the chance, perhaps slim,of travel restrictions if this spreads. Certainly an outlier.

     

    I'm out of (NYSE:MBT) in Russia, a bit early, a couple weeks aho, both to concentrate solely on shorting weak US small caps and retail, and as events (in russia) appear to be dragging on.

     

    Interesting JPM 's view, while at the same time both Siffel and Citi have suddenly jacked their SPX targets to 2300+, within months!

     

    If Russia had a "Lehman moment" , as cheap as it is, I would be a buyer somewhere in the region, likely (MBT) again.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    RD: European sanctions have already moved far beyond travel restrictions. The last round included "a ban on purchasing newly issued bonds and shares in five Russian majority state-owned banks", an arms embargo (excluding existing contracts), a ban on selling dual use goods and certain technology products for deep sea drilling. Russia retaliated with a ban on several agricultural products. The next round will go further.

     

    Putin's personality disorder was on display in remarks quoted in a CNN story.

     

    http://cnn.it/1wQ0gV5

     

    No other leader would brandish the possible use of nuclear weapons as freely as Putin.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    "No other leader would brandish the possible use of nuclear weapons as freely as Putin."

     

    More the any evidence that he's crazy, it's an indication of how pathetically weak he sees the West, and accurately so.

     

    He has no intention of using nukes and fully realizes it's not even an issue. His mere mention of the word sends Western leaders -- in fact, their entire citizenry -- rushing for some clean undies.
    29 Aug 2014, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tack

     

    He really is running rings around the West in every chess game. I agree, if he mentions nukes, it's strategy, not intent.

     

    SG

     

    His summer vacationing story tells it all on crazy & chess game. That's chutzpa to use that outlandish a story of "my dog ate my homework" on a the world stage in front of everyone.

     

    (I'd missed your tongue in cheek before :). )
    29 Aug 2014, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    Tack: If Putin is trying to scare Europe, he may have succeeded only in scaring NATO member into spending more money for defense, something the U.S. has been trying to convince them to do for a long time.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1nKpKcU

     

    That does not appear to me to be a sane policy, particularly when there are undesirable and serious economic repercussions for the Russian economy too. Only someone mentally unbalanced would see the more benefits than detriments from seizing more Ukrainian territory.

     

    Everyone knows that the West is not going to engage Russia in a military conflict over Ukraine, a non-NATO member, no matter what happens. Europe has become far too dependent on Russian natural gas. Eventually, as in the past, the line will be drawn somewhere else, assuming Putin attempts to expand Russia's territory through military aggression which is certainly possible. The Baltic states, who are members of NATO and were part of the Soviet Union before the break up, appear to be genuinely concerned about that possibility.

     

    Putin is succeeding only in reminding Europeans that Russia needs to be viewed as a serious security threat and will most likely never be integrated into the western economy. There are serious problems in their mass personality traits in my opinion that prevents their long term peaceful co-existence with other nations even when it would clearly be in their economic interests.

     

    Putin is the aggressor, as have other Russian leaders before him going back to the Czars, but he believes that Russia is the victim. His odd threat of a nuclear war grows out of his mental illness and will appear to be what it is, bizarre and crazy to most sane persons living outside Russia.

     

    In any event, I may buy (NYSEARCA:PPA) next week.

     

    I have been adding some to my bond and bond funds lately after selling into the strength during the late spring and summer. The low inflation numbers in Europe seem likely to persist for awhile, possibly tipping into deflation, and there certainly exists the potential continuation of further yield declines due to risk off trades. And, I have continued to pare my stock allocation some after eliminating my net dollar additions between October 2013 and June 2014.

     

    29 Aug 2014, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I was referring to the outlier chance of widespread travel restrictions, if the Ebola virus spread beyond Africa....
    29 Aug 2014, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    RD: In that case, I would worry about a slew of other potential disasters before Ebola causes widespread travel restrictions, particularly given the difficulty in transmission of the disease and the likelihood that there is a drug now available that cures it.

     

    If you want to worry about an outlier threat, then ISIS would probably be a more likely originator of a black swan type event. The U.S. has already spent (or will spend in the future) over $2 trillion for the IRAQ War, not to mention the loss of several hundred thousand lives and long term physical and/or emotional disabilities to thousands more. And we have succeeded only in creating more of a danger to a national security.

     

    Cost of Iraq War:
    http://reut.rs/Xdid9R
    29 Aug 2014, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    Could be wrong, but it does seem the market is giving no weighting to these potential tail risks.

     

    And yes, the human tragedies.....incalcul...
    29 Aug 2014, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    RD: Investors know there are potential tail risks but will not take into account the impact until they occur. They may never happen. I can not price GE based on the possibility that ISIS may explode a dirty bomb near the NYSE.

     

    There are more likely scenarios that the market may be ignoring. An example would be the developing subprime crisis in early 2007. By February 2007, it was apparent to any investor reading the news that there was a really serious problem.

     

    I was reading a number of stories in February 2007 that gave me material information about the scope of the problem. I have alluded to some of that news in my blog. This is just one example:

     

    Bloomberg 2/21/2007
    http://bloom.bg/1n99IcL

     

    There was also a spike in the VIX that month, occurring on 2/27/2007, with a one day move from 11.15 to 18.31.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1n99IcN

     

    The VIX had been moving in what I call a Stable Vix Pattern, Phase 2, which is continuous movement in the 10 to 15 range, the most bullish range. Same then as now. After the market was flooded with subprime news in February 2007, that Phase 2 movement shifted to an alternating Phase 2 to Phase 1 and back until the TRIGGER EVENT in August 2007, a sell signal marking the start of the Unstable Vix Pattern, a far more risky market and probably marking the upcoming onset of a bear market when given after a long period of continuous movement below 20 which was the case in August 2007. The Trigger Event was then confirmed multiple times thereafter.

     

    Consequently, I started to sell stock mutual funds and stock ETFs and had raised my cash allocation from around 20% to 30% in 2007 plus I put another $50,000 realized from a reduction in my stock allocation into short term investment grade bonds rated "A" or better. Based on what happened thereafter, that was not a sufficient pare.

     

    If there is one obvious series of events being ignored now, I would say it is the slowdown in Europe, which could easily tip into a recession with an increase in the already high 11.5% unemployment rate. That recession could be lengthened by an acceleration of tit for tat sanctions relating to the war in Ukraine and Russia's renewed expansionist tendencies.
    30 Aug 2014, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I agree on Europe, and as the currency adjusts, US companies could take a hit as the dollar strengthens.

     

    I've been suspicious of US only growth thesis's, since Abby Joseph Cohen's "supertanker America" motto in early 1998, that America would sail through the Asian financial crisis. For the long term investor, they did, but again for those leveraged, many panicked out during the summer of 1998. My first year trading, it was fun.

     

    Another theme the market seems to be ignoring, weak wage growth and a weak middle class and below, consumer.

     

    We are seeing a lot of commentary in retail about soft consumer spending trends, and although housing numbers have been good.....the homebuilder stocks continue to lag. I'm suspicious there, too.

     

    Half of my short exposure, is tied to retail, in some form.
    30 Aug 2014, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    Re 2007, fascinating the consensus calls for 2008 from the analyst community. All, almost universally, were bullish going into 2008 at yr end 2007.

     

    Most, were advising to buy the undervalued banks. Most, presumably, both have jobs, and credibility, remaining today.

     

    I'd like to say they are all fools, but it's deeper than that. Analysts are the paid sales force of their clients, the corporations paying the bills through underwritering fees.

     

    L, this is important.

     

    One of my core shorts, (NASDAQ:ANGI), which is making new all time lows, currently has 5 buy recommendations, 10 holds, and 1 sell.
    30 Aug 2014, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    RD: It will take homebuilders more time to recover from what happened in the period leading up to the Near Depression. Unlike garden variety recessions, where new home construction quickly recovers and provides an important boost to the economy, the new home sales data now is hovering at previous recession lows five years after the last recession ended.

     

    New One Family Houses Sold: United States
    http://bit.ly/MKSuTr

     

    That is an important piece of information. When and if new single family home sales increase, similar to what happened after past recoveries, the U.S. recovery will accelerate. The impact of that kind of economic activity is widespread throughout the economy as is automobile sales. There could also be a pick up in inflation when new housing starts pick up to more normal levels, particularly if that occurs with a tighter labor market, increased consumer spending on other items, and more business investment. The last GDP report showed a pick up in business investment which I would expect as capacity utilization nears 80%.

     

    I disagree with your opinion about the financial health of American consumers in the aggregate. It goes beyond the DSR ratio, the well documented refinancing activity at abnormally low long term rates, and the huge stockpile of cash building up in savings accounts, etc.

     

    I cited you some consumer default data and the St. Louis stress index. The historically low default indicates to me that households in the aggregate are in better shape now than in the past when the economy was doing much better than now.

     

    How would you explain how a five chart of the S & P/Experian Consumer Credit Default index fits into your bearish retail claim?

     

    http://bit.ly/Y1fh7q

     

    Or the St. Louis Financial Stress Index:
    http://bit.ly/UO7THn

     

    I would not be drawing conclusions from isolated retail sales reports. Retail sales will be choppy from week to week, month to month. Some retailers like Best Buy may be suffering due to issues peculiar to them rather than a consumer pullback in spending. Consumer spending in the aggregate is rising for the products sold by BBY.

     

    While consumer spending did dip in July, consumers made the choice in the aggregate to save more.

     

    "Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $739.1 billion in July, compared with $709.4 billion in June. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.7 percent in July, compared with 5.4 percent in June."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/qTFsOo

     

    I do not view that as a negative. Americans are better spenders than savers.

     

    The latest revision in GDP for the second quarter contains this relevant information:

     

    " Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter, compared
    with an increase of 1.2 percent in the first. Durable goods increased 14.3 percent, compared with an
    increase of 3.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter; it was unchanged
    in the first. Services increased 0.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent."

     

    " Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 8.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with
    an increase of 1.6 percent in the first. Investment in nonresidential structures increased 9.4 percent,
    compared with an increase of 2.9 percent. Investment in equipment increased 10.7 percent, in contrast
    to a decrease of 1.0 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 4.4 percent,
    compared with an increase of 4.6 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 7.2 percent, in
    contrast to a decrease of 5.3 percent."

     

    http://1.usa.gov/vgZr0y
    30 Aug 2014, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I respect the data you present, I am just hearing numerous retail reports that sound challenging, and confirmed by the stocks trading patterns.

     

    When you hear one challenging retail report -- isolated. When they all are missing estimates // or guiding down, I pay attention. Either the stocks are too expensive, or the estimates far too high.

     

    Either way, at this stage of a recovery cycle, and the stocks where they are, we should be hearing only one thing, and that sales and margins are fantastic. Anemic, doesn't, or shouldn't cut it at the PE ratios some of these trade at.

     

    It is also possible the consumer will choose to delever for a further extended period. This is no guarantee, or indication, consumers are about to return to record spending patterns.

     

    Just my thoughts, and observations. I'm out of BBY, btw, as the stock roared back. Shorting right now is very difficult, I am trying to only short companies, that go down, and stay down, that dont have institutional support. There are so many retail short candidates right now, that are outright, losing money.
    30 Aug 2014, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    One of many Q2 misses. What happened to all the "pent up demand" from the soft, weather related Q1 quarter?

     

    http://bit.ly/1na3Tf5
    30 Aug 2014, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    RD: I do not invest in money center banks, but smaller regional banks. In realtime, I noticed that most regional banks topped out in price in 2006 or in the first two months of 2007. Some topped out earlier.

     

    The regional bank ETF KRE hit its high in February 2007 at $50.73. By March 2, 2009, the price had fallen to $14.86.

     

    http://yhoo.it/PRwADn;range=my

     

    The topping action in bank stock prices was an early warning sign of what was about to happen.

     

    Some investors recognized in 2007 that there were huge problems and rot lurking underneath the surface. You will not find those investors at CNBC or employed by major sell side brokers. Generally speaking, they are outliers and an odd bunch. Their story is told by Michael Lewis in his book "The Big Short".

     

    http://amzn.to/1na6Psc

     

    I particularly like the story about the doctor Michael Burry who suffers from asperger's syndrome and made a fortune with his shorts.

     

    Vanity Fair Article on that guy:
    http://vnty.fr/1na6Psd

     

    http://n.pr/1na6Pse
    30 Aug 2014, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    SG,

     

    I've read the Big Short, fascinating read.

     

    Dr Burry, about a year ago, I had heard he was starting a new fund. I immediately called him up, and asked to invest.

     

    Turned me down, friends and family only.
    30 Aug 2014, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4345) | Send Message
     
    FG,

     

    Your (NYSE:AAP) is a good stock, but I wouldn't want to work there (even though I do now). ;)
    29 Aug 2014, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    You took a job? Good for you! What are your thoughts on (NYSE:AAP) as an employee. Do they maybe apply to the auto parts business in general?
    29 Aug 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    JBT

     

    good to hear from you

     

    (NYSE:AAP) up a nice 17% since it caught my eye and i wrote about it ..

     

    there is more room for that one to run .. after it consolidates a bit..

     

    I'm looking at $ 150
    29 Aug 2014, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FG

     

    I've wanted to get it... but it hasn't pulled back. Do you have a numbers sense for it?
    29 Aug 2014, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4345) | Send Message
     
    If it grows more, it will be on the backs of already over-worked employees. It's a hard way to make a living, and I'm happy that I don't need the job to make that (my) living. Benefits are okay, pay is low, work is hard, and they run severely under-staffed, often to the detriment of customer service. Too much mickey mouse paperwork and busy work.

     

    They make money, though, but they could make a lot more if they did not run the operation like a sweat shop.

     

    The people I work with (for the most part) are great, however.

     

    (NYSE:HD) is a better place to work. Also a good stock.
    29 Aug 2014, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    I wouldn't have guessed that from my time shopping at (NYSE:AAP). The employees have often been great, knowledgable, gotten to know me and at the time my frequently troubled car (now sold).
    29 Aug 2014, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4345) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    Acknowledged - the employees tend to be great. At the same time, those great employees are over-worked and bogged down with corporate BS. The stores are under-staffed - that's just a fact. We run with 2 employees on the retail side most of the time.

     

    My initial impression after a short time is that they burn out the talent until they move on. They would do better if they did more to keep that talent from moving on.
    29 Aug 2014, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JBT

     

    Well, I'll definitely try to be nicer when I'm in there! Bet it's better than Pepboys. I don't even go in there anymore. It's so depressing, and almost no one ever knows what they're doing.
    29 Aug 2014, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (4345) | Send Message
     
    LMH,

     

    Most of the customers are nice enough. I wish I could devote more of my work day to serving them, myself.
    29 Aug 2014, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • dancing diva
    , contributor
    Comments (2718) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Piece
    http://bit.ly/1zZeSOg
    31 Aug 2014, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DD

     

    Looks very interesting on why the CAPE is so high. Any takes aways you got from it?
    31 Aug 2014, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    Novartis will pop when the market opens. Yesterday, NVS released the results of a trial, involving 8,442 patients, of its drug LCZ696 that reduced the risk of death and hospitalization due to heart failure by 20% compared to existing therapies.

     

    Sandford Bernstein's analyst estimates that this drug will generate $8 billion a year in sales, well into blockbuster territory.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1pxZYOL

     

    http://cbsn.ws/1pxZW9C

     

    When I added to my NVS position last December, I noted that Novartis has had a long history of successful in house drug discovery, unlike many other major drug companies such as Pfizer whose R & D efforts do not produce results anywhere commensurate with the costs. As a consequences of those many failures, PFE and others have had to acquire compounds developed elsewhere through expensive acquisitions. Almost all of PFE's well known drugs were acquired via acquisitions including Lipitor which is now off patent.

     

    Link to my last significant discussion of NVS:
    1. Added 50 NVS at $76.72
    http://bit.ly/1cIkQrJ

     

    The NYSE listed shares will track the ordinary shares priced in Swiss Francs converted into USDs.

     

    Swiss Franc Price:
    http://on.mktw.net/1px...

     

    CHF82.35 converted into about $90 last Friday.

     

    http://yhoo.it/14CU2Yq;_ylt=AjXxUIxjHZYPiBea...

     

    The Swiss Central Bank is successfully keeping the Swiss Franc from rising against the USD and the EURO since August 2011:

     

    CHF/USD
    http://yhoo.it/1pxZW9H

     

    If the CHF was allowed to float freely, it would rise in value against the USD and that would be a tailwind for the USD priced NVS shares.

     

    I also have a 700+ share position in the Swiss Helvetia fund-SWZ-that has a 10+% weighting in NVS.

     

    Sponsor's website:

     

    http://www.swzfund.com
    31 Aug 2014, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    Do you see any investment possiblities here if someone's not in (NYSE:NVS) or (NYSE:SWZ)?

     

    Sounds like these are good for long term investment for a while at least.
    31 Aug 2014, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    On ()'s, it's frustrating that edting a comment will often mess those up. I copy to clipboard before opening to edit, then paste it before editing. That often solves that.

     

    The other is when possible to post ()s for the symbol one time, so the link activates, and not use them afterward.

     

    If it's still coming out a problem, then whatever works best for you of course :)
    31 Aug 2014, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    LMH: Novartis is such a large company ($218B market cap) that even a blockbuster drug will only move the needle some. I will be looking tomorrow at the price action in Switzerland since our market will be closed for Labor Day.

     

    As with just about any sector, it is important for individuals to identify the successful innovators. It is far better to own shares in a company that can develop new and successful products in house rather than spending a fortune acquiring a product invented by another company. Every few years, Pfizer goes out and spends $80 to $120B or so buying a large pharmaceutical company to acquire new products. The PFE share price is below where it was when PFE acquired Warner Lambert for $111.8+B in 2000, the company who owned Lipitor. The current price is also below where it was when PFE acquired Wyeth for $68B, and the price is now below where it was when Pfizer paid $60B for Pharmacia in 2002.

     

    While it is difficult for individual investors who lack the technical expertise, it is nonetheless important to distinguish between a company like PFE and NVS when making a long term investment.

     

    Since 1999, when PFE started its acquisition binge, it had to cut its dividend in half ($.32 to $.16) to force shareholders to help fund the 1999 Wyeth acquisition, and the share price has lost ground since that event. NVS has raised its dividend every year, doubling it several times and the share price is up 150% since 1999 (a bad year to buy just about anything).

     

    NVS Dividend History:
    http://bit.ly/1hYnUW3

     

    PFE Dividend History:
    http://bit.ly/1mK9ZFg

     

    The past may or may not be prologue. I can only look at each drug company's pipeline and success rates for bringing new products to market and make a judgment without having any medical or technical expertise.

     

    I would go with NVS even after a pop in price rather than PFE.
    31 Aug 2014, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG -

     

    Thanks!! Makes solid sense.
    31 Aug 2014, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    LMH: Novartis was up 4.31% in Zurich today (9/1/14).

     

    http://bit.ly/1pxZW9E

     

    My guess is that the NVS USD price will hit $100 before year end.

     

    SWZ is sort of staid kind of investment that I favor in stock funds. The fund is not leveraged and has a large allocation to Swiss blue chip mega caps like Nestle, Novartis and Roche. None of the distributions are supported by a return of capital and SWZ frequently makes capital gains distributions which boosts the income generation.

     

    http://bit.ly/1rJlNfW

     

    The fund has realized gains even after the recent Dark Period when most stock CEFs lost all of their unrealized gains and then some, with some going deep into realized loss territory.

     

    Even after those dividend distributions from realized gains, the fund had almost $167M in unrealized gains out of $438+M in total assets, as of 6/30/14.

     

    Page 12:
    http://bit.ly/1rJlOAv

     

    The Nestle shares have a cost basis of $2+M and had a market value of almost $34M. The NVS position had a cost basis of $10+M and a value of almost $48M. Roche had a cost basis of $13+M and a value of $53M. The fund occasionally harvests those type of profits.

     

    European equities have lagged for behind the U.S. over the past 5 years, which is one reason why I added to VEA, a very low cost ETF available at Vanguard commission free and discussed in my last blog:

     

    http://bit.ly/1rJlOAz

     

    The total return numbers for SWZ are consequently not equivalent to SPY over the past five years. Still the annualized total return over the past 5 years is over 10% on a net asset value per share basis and 8.21% over ten years. The SPY numbers are 16.74% and 8.27%:

     

    http://bit.ly/1j8UUhv

     

    The value of SWZ shares were also hurt by the Swiss Central Bank's actions starting in 2011 that lowered the value of the CHF vs. USD.

     

    On Pfizer, note that the current market value of $186M is well below the total paid for its three largest acquisitions ($240B) since 1999.
    1 Sep 2014, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SG

     

    thanks for the update.... both sound good. Time for some research :)!
    1 Sep 2014, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (7852) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    My initial trading blog, focused on the intermediate term.
    I'll be discussing specific ideas over there, from time to time, as well as intermediate commentary.

     

    DD, SG, L, BSF, others, take a look---
    RD
    1 Sep 2014, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RD

     

    That's great. I've bopped over. Hope others will too. I look forward to seeing the discussions that develop.
    1 Sep 2014, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    hi folks. hope you are enjoying the holiday : )

     

    has anyone ever used that "report abuse" button on someone else's comment?

     

    just wondering how SA handles that.
    1 Sep 2014, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    Blue: I did a couple of times for personal comments directed at me that were way over the top. The comments were extremely derogatory, saying that I was mentally ill as were all of my followers here at SA, and that summary was the polite part. The comments were deleted but then I started receiving PMs from Mr. Satan (his moniker) about how my actions reaffirmed his opinions and proved that I had no response to his non-sensical opinions. I decided after that episode that it is best to ignore those type of comments rather than stoke more of the same by sending an abuse report to SA.
    1 Sep 2014, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    SG,
    wow so that person had an appropriate name lol : )

     

    I think it's best to ignore, at least for me. I don't like engaging, because it is a complete waste of time.

     

    There is a block function for personal messages on SA.

     

    Someone with a name like "satan" sounds like the type that will change their name & keep on doing what they do.

     

    I stopped reading the comments on "wall st. breakfast news" a long time ago....too much nonsense there.

     

    Here we can have a discussion, and learn from each other.
    1 Sep 2014, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    south

     

    i've run into "Satan" here also , and reported him to SA on more than one occasion,,
    the "report abuse" button does work ...as they did reply to my requests
    he offers nothing in the way of content and likes to get "personal" ,
    2 Sep 2014, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    Lots of talk about the problems with paying a fair wage, which is making it so hard for people today. It's often talked about, but not much is being done to raise the minimum wage.

     

    IMO, if people had more $ in their pocket, that would help the economy. It's why the recovery has been so slow. There are new jobs, but the majority of them have been at the low end for wages.

     

    Every week, thousands of people are retiring. Not all of them are retiring from high wage jobs, but some are. Are corporations replacing the retiree's jobs? Doesn't seem like they are.

     

    Productivity keeps increasing, the stock markets are at or near all time highs.....but the minimum wage is stuck at the 1965 buying power amount? No wonder this has been the slowest recovery ever.
    2 Sep 2014, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue

     

    ZIRP seems like it's weighing on the recovery by keeping saving interest down.

     

    That's balanced against corporations being able to borrow so easily...
    2 Sep 2014, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    It really is hard to make all this $ from the same companies that underpay their workers. Sometimes my guilt does get to me.

     

    I'd like to see the minimum wage go up, everyone get a good education, clean air & water, no kids living off of dumps in the third world.....etc.

     

    My husband & I adopted our son from India. Some days, I wish we had adopted a dozen. He's a fantastic kid, makes me proud every day. Now that he's not a teenager anymore, our lives are calmer : )

     

    We support charities, but one of my goals is to have our own charity. That way, I can make sure the $ goes where it's supposed to go. Funded by our own $, I hate begging for donations.

     

    Maybe I'm crazy, but I believe that every person in their own way can make a difference in someone else's life.
    2 Sep 2014, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    LMH:

     

    This is a very common misconception. Very!

     

    ZIRP is doing nothing to longer-term rates and, as can be seen from rate behavior during tapering, isn't really doing anything to short-term rates. ZIRP's effects on the rates, economy and markets have mostly been a figment of the imagination.

     

    Rates are where they are because we're still recovering from a massive deflationary episode (it took until WWII during the '30's) and because we have deflationary anti-business policies emanating from the White House.
    2 Sep 2014, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16176) | Send Message
     
    BSF:

     

    Sorry. Nobody underpays anybody. Don't fall for that socialist nonsense.

     

    If people were underpaid, then then employers would be unable to find sufficient labor. If people cannot make more, it's only because of what supply and demand allows and that they haven't or won't elevate their skills to a higher-paying job.

     

    And, it is impossible to legislate higher pay, despite another love child of the left. If one does that, then businesses either cut back, or go out of business, because they cannot compete against entities, often foreign, that employ cheaper labor.

     

    And, it's a descending spiral from there. The next step, of course, is to establish protectionist barriers and tariffs to make those importers uncompetitive, too. This leads to product shortages and higher prices, reducing everyone's standard of living. And, protectionism leads to poor product quality, as competition is eliminated.

     

    There's no substitute for competition, and that includes labor, too. If one wishes to sit home and collect government subsidies, instead, or to remain employed at low-skilled jobs, one only needs a mirror to see who is to blame. This is especially so in a nation that makes education funding available to anybody who breathes.
    2 Sep 2014, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    Tack...

     

    These issues are never so simple, things aren't black and white...

     

    "Remained employed at low-skilled jobs"

     

    Some people are genuinely stupid they cannot handle the high wages jobs, there are entire sections of the population who cannot get an Engineering degree from Brown, how should they be handled?

     

    Some people don't have the education or the opportunities.

     

    Minimum wages laws have work as a redistributionist tax policy generally lowering margins of companies and moving those funds to workers. Is that so bad? Obviously we can't raise the minimum wage to $40 but would it be so bad if McDonalds workers were paid $10 an hour? Do you really believe people who were planning to have high skilled jobs would now say ahh fuck this I'll just work at McDonalds I can make $10 bucks an hour, no what would happen is McDonald's margins would be hit and some people who have it hard would have an easier time.

     

    "Protectionism leads to poor product quality"
    Protectionism is generally favorable to the Country practicing the policies (It seems to have worked for Japan/South Korea)

     

    Lack of protectionism sure has lowered the product quality of many things, everything is Chinese junk nowadays no one was willing to pony up for high quality so those businesses don't exist anymore.

     

    "This is especially so in a nation that makes education funding available to anybody who breathes."

     

    Can you help me out with this, my GF is looking to start her graduate degree in Psychology it's going to cost us some $30k.
    2 Sep 2014, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    Blue: I voted in the GOP primary held last August for Lamar Alexander and the current GOP governor Haslam. So, it would be hard to pin a "socialist" or "liberal" tag on me.

     

    I am not going to debate the issue but simply drag and drop parts of a typically long blog discussion involving
    "Labor Productivity and Wages":

     

    http://bit.ly/1cPSWgb

     

    Productivity rose by 80.4% between 1973-2011 compared to a 10.7% growth in median hourly compensation. Since 2000, wage growth has flatlined, making the disparity even greater since that time.

     

    http://cnnmon.ie/1lGqzsh

     

    The minimum wage kept pace with productivity growth between 1947 to 1969 which led to a 170% increase in the real value of the minimum wage over that time period. The link was broken in the 1970s.

     

    http://bit.ly/1lGqwNc

     

    About 95% of the income growth since 2009 has been harvested by the top 1% of income earners. Between 2009-2012, the top 1% incomes grew by 31.4% while the other 99% grew only by .4%.

     

    http://elsa.berkeley.edu~saez/saez-UStopincome...

     

    For millions of households in the middle class, income growth simply did not match the increases in expenses which caused the acquisition of more debt. One of the key drivers in increased spending is children, followed by a list of sundry non-discretionary items like insurance, mortgage payments, automobile costs and utilities. The only way to make up for the deficit between mostly necessary spending and income was to incur more debt. When you have to think twice about taking the tribe to Red Lobster for dinner, then you are already in trouble."

     

    End of that quote

     

    I would generally agree with this article that the lack of real wage growth hinders U.S. economic growth and renders the system more vulnerable to shocks like the one just experienced in the Near Depression.

     

    "The Key Barrier to Shared Prosperity and a Rising Middle Class"

     

    http://bit.ly/1rzKLKw

     

    2 Sep 2014, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    All,

     

    an article i ran across last week on the topic of "income inequality"

     

    http://bit.ly/1lGryZo
    2 Sep 2014, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • South Gent
    , contributor
    Comments (5768) | Send Message
     
    F & G: My youngest nephew just finished up at Northwestern at an all-in cost of around $70,000 per year.

     

    When his dad started Vanderbilt in 1964, the tuition cost for the first year was $1,100. If I just increased that amount by inflation to 2014, I arrive at the sum of $8,454.03.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/tj5h8X

     

    Sure there are scholarships that help some, but the burden of student debt is probably one reason for the slow housing recovery among those millennials.

     

    If I had a young daughter now, maybe I would hint strongly about her becoming a long distance runner or really good at some other sport like swimming, tennis, golf, lacrosse, basketball, bowling, etc., all of which now receive athletic scholarships at Vandy.

     

    A recent study shows that a college decree is still worth the cost, but I would limit that to state school tuition myself:

     

    http://bit.ly/1lGtstf
    2 Sep 2014, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    South ,

     

    i do agree , as i certainly don't envy what these students have to fork over for a degree.
    2 Sep 2014, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    I don't understand how, but (TSLA) is up in the pre-market.

     

    So is (REGN). (NVS) is going to pop today too.
    2 Sep 2014, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (9804) | Send Message
     
    Blue,
    (TSLA) just upgraded ,

     

    "Tesla upgraded at Stifel
    As noted earlier, Stifel upgraded Tesla to Buy from Hold. The firm upgraded the stock as it thinks the company has obtained "a defensible" market "niche," while it has a head start in production and demand is unlikely to become a headwind for it until late in the decade at the earliest. Target $400
    2 Sep 2014, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    F&G, it boggles the mind. At this point, if Musk gets the batteries to work & the gigafactory(s) built, that could be worth more than the cars.

     

    I sold my (TSLA) so am a bit cranky : )
    2 Sep 2014, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Blue

     

    (TSLA) is a risk buy. Not buying part of a company. That's already been sold to share holders ages ago. Sure it can go up, and you sold before the top. Rarely does anyone buy at the bottom and sell at the top :). For long term, the future potential is already built into the price many times over. As a growth lottery buy - sure it's got momentum. It's not a long term buy though - had to sell it some time. And if we get a correction, it too will be down - more than your DGIs - it will give you something to buy on the dip!
    2 Sep 2014, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • BlueSkyForever
    , contributor
    Comments (2899) | Send Message
     
    Here's a reason (REGN) is going up so fast

     

    http://cnb.cx/1lFTQTT

     

    In the article, they talk about how the new drug will be taken....by injection. What? Not a pill? Not sure how many patients (and health care plans) will actually go for this. Cost estimate is $6,000 per year. Seems a bit steep?

     

    However HDL is lowered roughly 50%.
    2 Sep 2014, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (8508) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » -

     

    Ready for a new chapter #40?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Sep 2014, 09:19 AM Reply Like
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