Forecasting 2013
Just in case folks on this site are interested, here are links to our Forecast 2013 pieces online. They are presumably too long for Seeking Alpha. I thought I had posted this on Instablog in February. I have just discovered I'd only saved it as a draft! Up it goes now, anyway.
None of this is investment advice; not even for existing clients. It is just the perspective of this analyst for those who might be interested. Best wishes to all.
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To all clients:
Askari's annual forecasting stuff is now all online at the company site, in the Annual section of the Opinion page…. where it belongs.
The posting process has been going on since the first week of 2013.
The forecast, economies and markets summary, and some proprietary charts went up in early January.
The lengthier discussions and musings have just been posted (early February) , and one of the charts has been updated.
Direct links to most of that online material are, respectively….
Summary of Forecasts: Year 2013 [3pp.]
http://www.askariequitymanagement.com/x/2013askariforecast.pdf
The Good, the Bad … and the merely Ugly [a snapshot of economies and markets at year-end; 2pp.]
http://www.askariequitymanagement.com/x/2013jangoodbadugly.pdf
Chart of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's multi-factor National (economic) Activity Index
http://www.askariequitymanagement.com/x/2013janchifrbnai.pdf
Chart of pre-tax U.S. NIPA Profits (with ICA & CCA adjustments)
http://www.askariequitymanagement.com/x/2013jannipaprof.pdf
Chart of U.S. Real Disposable Personal Income [updated with December data.]
http://www.askariequitymanagement.com/x/2013janrealdpi.pdf
Supplementary Notes to Forecast 2013 [35 pp.]
http://www.askariequitymanagement.com/x/2013suppnotes.pdf
Survival 101 [A narrative discussion of the background and rationales for moving toward "fortress portfolios"; 14 pp.]
http://www.askariequitymanagement.com/x/2013survival.pdf
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If you are clients of ours, you'll let me do the worrying about this stuff. You all know I do enough for all of us; and you are doing just fine.
Nothing on this site is investment advice and should not, of course, be treated as such - by anyone, not even clients. It is simply an explanation of what I see and how I think about it. It might of interest others; so others get included on the distribution list.
For all of you: Have fun. Stay focused on what matters to you.
As always, contrary opinions are welcome - especially thoughtful ones. Really.
-- Lloyd