I've got Marc Ouellet as the next Pope based mostly on "Pope Ouellet" having a nice ring to it - my friends and I drafted Popes-to-be in a pool.
It got me thinking about our various past wagers on world events and how often a "binary event" turned out to have an unforeseen outcome. What will happen in a 50/50 event has some new factor come out of left field and leaves the thesis of the original wager somewhat meaningless.
I'm wondering if Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) might end that way - no bang, no whimper, just a long drawn-out compromise of some sort.
We will see.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: I am long Marc Ouellet