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  • What The FOMC Said 24 comments
    Feb 20, 2013 5:33 PM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ

    The market reacted terribly to the January 29-30 FOMC minutes release today.

    In the economic section they basically said the economy is better than before, inflation lower, and gov't spending down - mostly in defense.

    So maybe a tiny hint of "less action required."

    The financial section included this:

    Option-implied volatility for the S&P 500 index over the near term dipped to its lowest level since early 2007. The option-implied price of insurance against downside risk on the index at longer horizons remained elevated.

    That sounds like "markets are re-assured as long as we keep printing, and we are aware of this."

    So it seems like the markets over-reacted if the reaction was due to a fear of ending open market operations.

    The financial section also included this gem:

    U.S. financial market conditions improved on net between the December and January FOMC meetings, largely in response to the partial resolution of the issues associated with the so-called fiscal cliff, a positive start to the corporate earnings reporting season, and some favorable policy developments in Europe.

    Ha! It was the fiscal cliff, corporate earnings, and European policy that bolstered markets and NOT us!

    Themes: macro, Bernanke, fomc Stocks: SPY, QQQ
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Comments (24)
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  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    Even the traders (I'd think) will see the light and head for the exits.

     

    The technocrats and keynesian politico's will get slaughtered for ramping deficits and an unwindable balance sheet - with no results to show for it.
    20 Feb 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    I think you should short, DigDeep. Go triple short.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    i'll pass on 3x/ultra - but yes on 1x short

     

    since you're busting my balls - what's your plan?
    21 Feb 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    I am buying calls on 3x leveraged on Wednesday.
    21 Feb 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    there's nothing macro about your approach

     

    Unions-gov't hand outs-QE for foreign banks-balooning & unwindable fed blance sheet
    Yup - that's the answer.
    21 Feb 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    You seem angry. Why is that?
    21 Feb 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    Not angry.
    The standard of living has dropped for the majority of families since 07.
    All well and good for you to play the market (micro) - more of the same macro policy crap you suggest gets us where?

     

    Bottom line: confidence won't return (velocity will stay low) until leadership displays some accountability & responsible policy- instead of these attempted reflate policies - which were unsustainable then...and now.

     

    Not angry - just impatient with weak minded views.
    21 Feb 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    Got it. You want some strong leadership to bring out 50% unemployment through austerity.
    21 Feb 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    Nifty one liners mac

     

    some fiscal restraint - reduction of rates of increases - just might signal to individuals & business, that the vote getters might not bury us...er, our kids and grandkids.

     

    You're delusional if you think higher rates of gov't spending is a sustainable answer to unemployment.
    21 Feb 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    You heard that on AM right wing talk shows, right?
    22 Feb 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    well you must be right
    all is well, nothing to see here - move along

     

    well, except a few sustainability issues;
    -entitlements are going well
    -incomes are declining
    -derivatives net exposure growing
    -collateral hypothecation worsening
    -income inequality widening
    -bond bubble
    -equities propped - bubble again
    pending minimum wage hike will reduce employment
    -RE shadow inventory still there - high foreclosure rates will continue
    -obama care - large businesses ready to reduce many to 29 hr work weeks - or just pay the fine and compress margins and/or raise prices
    -Central planning as skewed true price discovery - miss allocating capital
    -Defense budget too high and nobody has the balls to rein it in
    -High reg's for domestic business vs lack of reg's for overseas EM producers - and the multi-nationals have a free hand to exploit the opp...
    -Cronyism out of control
    -Gov't over spending - malinvestments while not producing sustainable returns.
    -cost of higher Ed burying students with non-dischargable debt
    -propping TBTF's - re-enforcing poor risk management
    -Lack of confidence due to all of the above - and more.

     

    Your turn - for a simpleton dem/repub quip.
    Seriously - come back with something intelligent mac
    22 Feb 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    You didn't answer my question.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    answer: no
    you didn't come back to mine
    22 Feb 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    Wow, you thought all that nonsense up by yourself.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    Seriously - come back with something intelligent mac
    22 Feb 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    It is hard to come back with an intelligent response to doom and gloom. It's like arguing against a wall.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    it's a realistic look at what's been attempted by our central planners for a few decades now.
    Time to regain some accountability and control

     

    The technocrats aren't that smart to coerce the market - nobody is.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    Do you want to take back our country?
    22 Feb 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    really need some strong leadership
    somebody that does what's right - not what get's one re-elected

     

    it'll take another heavy crisis for any meaningful changes
    22 Feb 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    The beatings will continue till morale improves, is that it?
    22 Feb 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    there's been a lack of beatings - witnessed by the cronyism of late in our nobody gets hurt/ no consequence world

     

    improved morale will come when the smoke n mirrors act(s) are dropped - the market will/should make (the) decisions vs planners - morale will come back if/when that happens
    22 Feb 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9049) | Send Message
     
    The market is full of a bunch of idiots, and I mean that in the nicest way. If economic recovery were to be left to the market we would have barbarism. The market is great for creating wealth, but an economy is so much more than just wealth. An economy is about people. The market doesn't give two s**ts about people.
    22 Feb 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2370) | Send Message
     
    Certainly regulations are key to protect property and rights.

     

    Reg's have not controlled monopolistic and corp/gov't cronyism recently.

     

    Deciding that housing for example, is more important than subsidizing (say) desalination plants - is what I'm talking about. Central planners don't have the foresight to direct all this activity and the ramifications of directing capital to certain channels.

     

    Major funding for the good of the public - sure; defense, infrastructure, safety net for the truly needy, etc - that's why we pay taxes. The rest of the 'orchestrated octopus' of Fed activity is nuts. Reagan was right - let the states decide most of these issues.

     

    I agree - barbarism, unchecked isn't good.
    The answer isn't an ever growing fed gov't and CB control. We're in the midst of witnessing the crappy results of this top down control.
    23 Feb 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    All the fundamentals headlines go out the window after one Fed comment .No QE = no rally
    21 Feb 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
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